Making Sense of a Senseless Summer

[DusterBuster]

If he is good, I will gladly admit that I’m wrong, but I am not happy because the odds are stacked that he is not going to be an NBA level player or even if he is he will be very marginal

I agree with this take. Yang has the feel of a A of F player. He's either gonna be better than advertised and all the scouts were wrong or Ha 2.0.

I think there were absolutely more "sure things" if the Blazers wanted to go that route... for some reason they didn't... so guess we'll see...

[JasonStern]

I can rationalize the pick. Team is for sale and you pick China's best prospect in several years. Instant foreign fan base. Terrible from a win/future standpoint, but alluring - especially if the Blazers are considering selling to Asian owners.

The Simons trade makes zero sense at all. If he was traded for expirings, I could rationalize that he wanted out of this mess. But Jrue is nearly my age. And I'm washed up. Deal isn't finalized, so I still hope to hear that Pritchard was included in the deal. That would excite me as a Duck fan, and probably some other Duck fans. But as is, no meaningful picks, no prospects, and we have over $50M tied up in Jrue Holiday and Jeremie Grant.

Simons could have just expired. Maybe you use a pick or pick swap to get out of Grant's contract. And the team has a massive amount of flexibility for a future owner. The answer was easy and right there.

The Sonics (THUNDER!) and Pacers just put on a master class on how to properly rebuild. And both have bright futures as opposed to tying up $50M+/season for Jrue Holiday and Jeremie Grant. They were literally given the blueprint, not ironically in part from former Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard, in what to do, then decided to not do that.

With the Lakers selling for $10B, there's at least a 50% chance the Blazers relocate. When you pay $3-4B for a franchise, ~$500M in exit fees isn't as significant as the revenue gain from moving to Seattle, Vegas, etc. The 41 contractual obligated events for the Moda Center can easily be filled with dog shows, which honestly might be more appealing than watching a team lead by Jrue Holiday and Jeremie Grant.

Best advice is to just kind of zone out for a while. Let the new ownership dust settle and re-evaluate then.

[Walton1one]

Damn dude, depressing and I am already bummed

[zzaj]

...With the Lakers selling for $10B, there's at least a 50% chance the Blazers relocate. When you pay $3-4B for a franchise, ~$500M in exit fees isn't as significant as the revenue gain from moving to Seattle, Vegas, etc...

While I don't think anybody really has the authority to say there is no chance that the Blazers will be moved, I think the statement that there's "at least a 50% chance the Blazers relocate" isn't accurate. Everything that we've heard from people supposedly in the know and with ties to the NBA has been that the association is opposed overall to any team relocating. There are many other reasons that indicate the Blazers specifically won't move that I won't get into, but one stands out in your statement...even though Seattle has about a million more people than Portland they also have MLB and NFL to compete for fan sports dollars. Las Vegas is smaller than Portland and already has NFL and soon is getting MLB. With less competition for NBA sport fan dollars in Portland, it's unlikely that it'd be more profitable for an owner or ownership group to move a team to one of those other cities.

Again, nobody can say it won't happen. But more than 50%? I think that's hyperbolic...probably more like less than 5% chance.

[m0ng0]

...With the Lakers selling for $10B, there's at least a 50% chance the Blazers relocate. When you pay $3-4B for a franchise, ~$500M in exit fees isn't as significant as the revenue gain from moving to Seattle, Vegas, etc...

While I don't think anybody really has the authority to say there is no chance that the Blazers will be moved, I think the statement that there's "at least a 50% chance the Blazers relocate" isn't accurate. Everything that we've heard from people supposedly in the know and with ties to the NBA has been that the association is opposed overall to any team relocating. There are many other reasons that indicate the Blazers specifically won't move that I won't get into, but one stands out in your statement...even though Seattle has about a million more people than Portland they also have MLB and NFL to compete for fan sports dollars. Las Vegas is smaller than Portland and already has NFL and soon is getting MLB. With less competition for NBA sport fan dollars in Portland, it's unlikely that it'd be more profitable for an owner or ownership group to move a team to one of those other cities.

Again, nobody can say it won't happen. But more than 50%? I think that's hyperbolic...probably more like less than 5% chance.

let's not forget the NHL team that they no longer support now that they are not winning (seattle)

[Case2012]

I agreed with all of that except the Blazers Moving, that won't happen.

[DC_Melo]

Everybody wanted the team to swing for the fences and they did. Kids ceiling is unknown and he may not be done growing, a barefoot 7'1 and he is a pretty jacked 250lbs, great bbiq, good handle, creative offensive scorer and excellent passer. People don't like it because they didn't see it coming!!!! They could not wait until the second round because they didn't have one. I see him in the role Clingan had last year, keep Reath as a 3rd, dump Ayton for anything, maybe make rw3 a player coach type. He needs minutes and time to grow. Take deep breath and let's see what happens.

But how does it make sense long term? Both Clingan and Yang are position locked at C. We just invested back to back draft picks on non-switching bigs who can only play C. Best case we either invested 7 or 16 in a backup. And DC just had a really good rookie season.

It makes sense long term when you consider that no Center in this league plays 48 minutes a night for 82 games. In fact, most centers that are Clingan sized barely crack 30/game. Between load managing, potential injuries, foul trouble games, and players that size typically having lower stamina, Clingan will likely spend roughly as much time on the court as off, even if he is the full time starter. Off all the starting postitions, centers typically need the most rest time during games.

It makes even more sense when you consider that players drafted at #16 have only averaged a PER of 9.69 in their careers and only about 25% have made it to a second contract. In other words, by the 16th pick, the historical expectation is that you are going to bust or become be a role player… like a backup C for example.

[BlazersBroncos]

Everybody wanted the team to swing for the fences and they did. Kids ceiling is unknown and he may not be done growing, a barefoot 7'1 and he is a pretty jacked 250lbs, great bbiq, good handle, creative offensive scorer and excellent passer. People don't like it because they didn't see it coming!!!! They could not wait until the second round because they didn't have one. I see him in the role Clingan had last year, keep Reath as a 3rd, dump Ayton for anything, maybe make rw3 a player coach type. He needs minutes and time to grow. Take deep breath and let's see what happens.

But how does it make sense long term? Both Clingan and Yang are position locked at C. We just invested back to back draft picks on non-switching bigs who can only play C. Best case we either invested 7 or 16 in a backup. And DC just had a really good rookie season.

It makes sense long term when you consider that no Center in this league plays 48 minutes a night for 82 games. In fact, most centers that are Clingan sized barely crack 30/game. Between load managing, potential injuries, foul trouble games, and players that size typically having lower stamina, Clingan will likely spend roughly as much time on the court as off, even if he is the full time starter. Off all the starting postitions, centers typically need the most rest time during games.

It makes even more sense when you consider that players drafted at #16 have only averaged a PER of 9.69 in their careers and only about 25% have made it to a second contract. In other words, by the 16th pick, the historical expectation is that you are going to bust or become be a role player… like a backup C for example.

Ya I have no issue with the swing. Any team lacking a true #1 should continually swing big and the FO saw Yang as that. Thats fine with me.

Its just disappointing that the big swing they targeted is position locked at the same spot our #7 pick from last year plays. I love DC.

Realistically, even if Yang only turns into a 20mpg backup - thats a hit for pick 16. Hell thats a hit for 11.

[dckingsfan]

It won’t mean a thing POR will still miss the playin and some fans will totally be fine with that again, and make excuses for Cronin, again.

Can’t wait to see the next craptastic trade POR idiot GM makes

Yeah, the problem with this draft is that it benefited other teams in the West and Cronin didn't adjust - the timeline in the west moved out.

OKC, Houston, LAL, Denver, LAC, Minny, GS were always going to be better than us in 25-26.

Then SA got their picks, Dallas got their pick. That is 9 of the 10 slots.

Sac then did pretty well in the draft.

Fortunately, Memphis buried themselves in the long-run.

And then the dagger - Phoenix had a really good draft (IMO).

Now, could we eek into the 10th slot? Shmaybe. This feels like desperation more than tactics against a strategy.

[Walton1one]

The issue with Yang is, he wasn’t even the best player on his own team, he was like the third best player, and the two best players were guys who couldn’t even make it in the NBA, the most likely scenario is this guy is going be out of league after his contract is over if not before, but a star, let alone starting level player? Yeah, no way I see that happening.

If I’m wrong, I will 100% take ownership of it, but if I’m right all these people that are sitting here defending this pick & Cronin & attacking me & others who are calling this as it is, a completely (historically?) awful pick have zero credibility as far as I’m concerned

BTW , I am completely out on Schmitz as well, Dirt & Sprague summed it up succinctly today, who exactly has he hit on? Keep in mind that they have had four lottery picks now, and their best players were not players they drafted, but players they traded for.

Murray - they had a lottery grade on him, he’s an EOB player who may be out of the league in another year

Rupert - they had a lottery grade on him as well & he can’t get out of the G league

Sharpe - more than? half this board wants to trade him away already

Scoot - supremely underwhelming first two years, also doesn’t help that several players taken after him have blown up already

Clingan - so far the only guy who maybe? Might end up being a good pick, but then in Cronin‘s presser, he flat out admits that if Yang was in the draft LY they might’ve picked him instead of Clingan? Really? Wow

Hansen - and then the topper, this guy who was not even ranked as a first round prospect by a vast majority, who plays in the CBA, and is not even the best player on his team let alone dominating that league, unlike other young Euro prospects did when they were drafted

I think the reality is, that these guys are really bad at their jobs, and I guess? Credit to them for going out with guns blazing, but they’re all gonna be fired, and they 100% deserve it.

[DusterBuster]

The Hoop Collective guys pretty much had the same questions here we're all asking. They didn't even really slam the pick, recognized it's a reach but there could be some really unique talent there... but also just openly questioning what the **** plan is here... Clingan is good and looks to be a long-term solution at C, so to take another C is strange... then contrasted it to the Jrue trade a few days ago they were all just dumbfounded about what the plan is here with 5 centers and then a 35/36yo win-now PG.

Look, this might alllll make sense once the ball rolls out. Maybe Jrue really is the glue that just makes all these pieces gel, maybe Ayton or Clingan have a long-term injury and Yang gets to show he was the diamond in the ruff all along... but right now it truly just looks like the team is throwing **** against the wall without any plan.

[Walton1one]

It won’t mean a thing POR will still miss the playin and some fans will totally be fine with that again, and make excuses for Cronin, again.

Can’t wait to see the next craptastic trade POR idiot GM makes

Yeah, the problem with this draft is that it benefited other teams in the West and Cronin didn't adjust - the timeline in the west moved out.

OKC, Houston, LAL, Denver, LAC, Minny, GS were always going to be better than us in 25-26.

Then SA got their picks, Dallas got their pick. That is 9 of the 10 slots.

Sac then did pretty well in the draft.

Fortunately, Memphis buried themselves in the long-run.

And then the dagger - Phoenix had a really good draft (IMO).

Now, could we eek into the 10th slot? Shmaybe. This feels like desperation more than tactics against a strategy.

Great post and you are right on IMO, EVERY other team got better and I am not sure POR did at all, and they may have gotten worse

Still some stuff maybe? TBD, but they were pretty much injury free last year, while several other teams had injury plagued years like POR did the year before. If they have one key guy go down or Jrue plays less games than he did LY, or even similar games, they are in the lottery again, The only silver lining is hopefully this front office won’t be making the decisions at that time

[Norm2953]

It's the classic BPA regardless of position but most likely Yang will spend most if not all on 2026 in the G League

Meanwhile Chauney will likely play most of the vets 35-40 mpg and we could see a lot of Jrue, Camara, Grant, Deni
and Ayton with Thybulle, Scoot and Sharpe being the Blazers bench

In my mind, the only sensible thing to do is to just let Ayton establish some value and either move him at the trade
deadline if there is value or let him walk. There is no need to give him away for he's a big expiring contract. At least
we know Portland unless they are insane will not extend him with DC and Yang on the roster.

There could be some minor moves but the likelihood of TL bringing back real value is low unless they are content with
a SRP in the 2030's. Just let Ayton, TL and Thybulle walk next summer for they represent $50+ million in salary coming
off their books for hopefully a new owner to play with

[Sinobas]

Don't forget we got an unprotected 1st out of the Yang deal. That's almost like a Mulligan in case Yang doesn't pan out. But I think Yang has as much potential as others that were on the radar for most mocks. He's a skilled big man.

Holiday is old and expensive, but still an upgrade over Simons. Simons poor defense and tendency to chuck wasn't good for the team.

Also, if Cronin knows he has something lined up to offload Jerami Grant, the Holiday salary won't really mean much. Remember we also have 44 mil coming off the books with Ayton and RW3.

[dckingsfan]

Don't forget we got an unprotected 1st out of the Yang deal. That's almost like a Mulligan in case Yang doesn't pan out. But I think Yang has as much potential as others that were on the radar for most mocks. He's a skilled big man.

Holiday is old and expensive, but still an upgrade over Simons. Simons poor defense and tendency to chuck wasn't good for the team.

Also, if Cronin knows he has something lined up to offload Jerami Grant, the Holiday salary won't really mean much. Remember we also have 44 mil coming off the books with Ayton and RW3.

The one, and I can't think of any others, trade for Grant would be for Bradley Beal. The Suns have no incentive to lose and need a PF that can space the floor. Beal's contract is shorter.

Even then, we would have to give up a lot of cap flexibility to make it happen. Just letting the contracts expire is a win.

[BlazersBroncos]

Don't forget we got an unprotected 1st out of the Yang deal. That's almost like a Mulligan in case Yang doesn't pan out. But I think Yang has as much potential as others that were on the radar for most mocks. He's a skilled big man.

Holiday is old and expensive, but still an upgrade over Simons. Simons poor defense and tendency to chuck wasn't good for the team.

Also, if Cronin knows he has something lined up to offload Jerami Grant, the Holiday salary won't really mean much. Remember we also have 44 mil coming off the books with Ayton and RW3.

The one, and I can't think of any others, trade for Grant would be for Bradley Beal. The Suns have no incentive to lose and need a PF that can space the floor. Beal's contract is shorter.

Even then, we would have to give up a lot of cap flexibility to make it happen. Just letting the contracts expire is a win.

Cant see us taking on Beal with Jrue here. You cant just buy out a guy making that much, its insane. So your looking at Beal as your backup SF which is gross.

Think Grant for Beal ideas have died w/ the Holiday trade.

[DusterBuster]

Don't forget we got an unprotected 1st out of the Yang deal. That's almost like a Mulligan in case Yang doesn't pan out. But I think Yang has as much potential as others that were on the radar for most mocks. He's a skilled big man.

Holiday is old and expensive, but still an upgrade over Simons. Simons poor defense and tendency to chuck wasn't good for the team.

Yeah, unfortunately the pick the Blazers got kind of got overshadowed. It is a totally unprotected ORL pick in 2028. Anytime you can get a totally unprotected pick, that's a good asset and ORL is improving but still a pretty up and down franchise, so you never know where that pick may land.

Also (assuming I have the rules right, like 80% sure), this deal should mean the Blazers really don't have to worry as much about their pick owed to the Bulls as much anymore. They should have enough flexibility to get creative with things where they can largely work around it... of course, it's also largely a moot point since I doubt the Blazers are going to do any massive "here's 7 FRPs for a star" type of trade within the next 2 years anyway. Cronin hasn't shown the balls to be willing to make that kind of move and the current ownership isn't pushing for that either. If any deal like that happens, it's going to be with new ownership + management and that won't realistically be in place until the 26/27 season at the absolute earliest.

[zzaj]

One thing I want to point out...

There's a law of returns on "potential" with regard to drafting.

If you draft an 18 year old on potential and it takes that player 6 years to develop into the middle of their potential, that means you have a 24 year old who already has 6 years of NBA mileage, AND they have been taking up a roster spot and Cap money for 6 years. Simons is a pretty good example of this.

Now, the opposite is also true...you can draft a 24 year old who is already reaching the middle of their potential, and you only get limited years of their peak because of their age. That same 6 years under contract results in a 30 year old player.

IMO, one of Schmitz' blindspots (and a lot of teams, actually) is that they tend to prioritize uber-young players with "potential" and lay 100% trust in their player development.

Some of the main issues with that track are that it ties up a roster spot with low or middling production, and forces teams into difficult decisions re: contracts (coughSharpecough). Also, Player Development isn't a guarantee by any stretch...that process is also chock full of uncontrollable variables.

Anyway, sorry for the philosophical post...but drafting on "potential", while intoxicating has some serious drawbacks for running a franchise. It's like ALWAYS betting on a long shot, but you don't know the outcome of a race for an indeterminate number of years.

[Wizenheimer]

OK...sure...Cronin may pull more rabbits out of his hat before the season starts. A blind fool can see that there are still issues with this roster

And one of the issues could be a condemning reflection of either the Cronin/Billups synergy; or the Cronin/Shmitz partnership: the very real possibility that for 4 straight seasons Portland has been in the lottery and none of the picks will be starting when next season begins. Don't think that's possible? Well, consider this:

* over the last 3 seasons, Simons started 178 of 178 games and averaged 34 minutes
* over the last 3 seasons, Grant started 164 of 164 games and averaged 34 minutes
* since Ayton arrived, he started 95 of 95 games, and averaged 31 minutes

Chauncey has proven, for 3 straight years, that he favors the veterans. And he's going to be in a win-now mode next season. So far, Grant and Ayton are still Blazers...they start. Jrue will start, that's just about certain. Camara has started 97 straight games; that's not going to change. And of course, the best player last season was Avdija; he'll start, right? Jrue-Camara-Grant-Avdija-Ayton. That's the likely starting 5. Does anybody really believe Chanuncey will bench one of those guys?

I don't know, it just seems when in consecutive seasons, a franchise has the 7th-3rd-7th-11th picks and in year 4, none are starters there is s major issue with talent evaluation. But obviously, that hasn't happened...YET. The shiny can keeps getting kicked down the road

************************************************************************

but yeah, we're not there yet and Cronin may have more moves lined up. Rumors seem to suggest that. And 5 C's? Really? He was certainly busy in 2022. But since then, his season pattern has kind of been one major trade and a draft pick. He may be done until the trade deadline

I disagree with those saying the Blazers will be worse. Yeah, they lost the shooting of Simons, but they exchanged the absolutely terrible defense of Simons for the very solid defense of Jrue; and he's still solid even at 35.

one, kind of, controlling stat is net rating; the differential between offensive rating and defensive rating. That net kind of matches team records. Here has been the Blazer net rating over the last 4 years:

2021-22: -9.1
2022-23: -4.0 (the Dame factor)
2023-24: -9.2
2024-25: -3.0

generally, you can look at the net rating and pretty much predict what the records will be. A net rating of 0.0 generally predicts a .500 record

so, the Blazers were at -3.0 last season; an off rating of 111.7; a def rating of 114.7. Blazers 'only' ranked 16th in defense last season, but there are many reason to expect their defense to be even better next season. It's possible the defensive improvement will be enough to erase that -3.0 deficit. On paper, losing Simons might bump the offense down....might. But, while Holiday isn't the shooter Simons is; he's the pure PG Simons isn't and his ability to run the offense may more than offset any imagined loss from the absence of Simons

so I'd anticipate a net rating closer to 0.0...+/- 1.0. That seems like maybe underrating the potential a bit. But the mitigation is that, overall, the West may actually be better next season. For instance, the Blazers were 2 games better than the Spurs last season. But the Spurs only got 46 games from Wemby and 17 from Fox; and Sochan missed 28 games. Yeah, Blazer had lots of missed games too, but Wemby and Fox are on different levels than Blazer players. Also, the Spurs had a great draft. Dylan Harper is a stud; and Carter Bryant is likely to have a bigger impact than Yang.

so then, 39-43 wins may get the Blazers into the back end of the play-in. 43 wins would be a 7 win improvement, and that's substantial. More than that? Possible but also, unprobable

but that all assumes the roster is pretty much set and all Cronin may do till the trade deadline is rearrange the deck chairs in the back rows of the rotation. Sorry for the TLDR essay

[Case2012]

After reviewing five hours of Yang Hansen's footage last night (check out the video I shared if you haven't!), I'm impressed by his youth and skillset for a center. He shows promising passing and post-play, but his struggles with the three-pointer and free throws are clear areas for development. While I believe he can be a solid rotation player or even a starter, his selection at 16, particularly after drafting Clingan, raises questions about our long-term big man strategy. For him to truly emulate players like Jokic or Sengun, he'll require a significant role in the offense... Meaning he needs the ball in his hands. Another concern is the coaching style, since the roster is built around defense and we lack shot creation, Yang will be best utilized in the half court as a high post facilitator which seemingly contradicts the high tempo Billups has been pushing for. Yang can run the floor though and even make nice reads in transition with the occasional full court pass ala Joker or vintage Love.

The recent draft and overall team direction have left me pretty upset... Clearly. However, I've decided to channel that energy differently. I'm opting for a mindset of cautious optimism, prepared for the usual Blazer ups and (mostly)downs. My main focus is on the impending sale of the team and the fresh direction that new ownership will hopefully bring. Every bizarre move Joe and the FO makes will be another nail in their coffin, so I'm going to simply choose to laugh it off rather than waste my energy.

I'm looking forward to enjoying whatever positive moments the team provides this season, confident that next year will see a much-needed change in management and a clearer vision for the future.