EuroBasket: Deni Watch

[Walton1one]

Bookmark post, for those who care.

Cronin and the Blazers will “agree to part ways” next summer, Schmitz will be the new GM under Dundon. Cronin sees what’s coming, think he’s showing Schmitz how to do the job.

Does Schmitz even deserve to get the job though?

His draft picks have not been stellar, in fact, they have been pretty underwhelming. Outside of Clingan, not one of them would go higher in a redraft and Murray\Rupert are 1-2 years from being out of the NBA entirely and he had a "lottery grade" on them both.

Nobody wants to pay the enigmatic Sharpe north of $30mil/year and everyone (myself included) is banking on this being the year that Scoot shows the promise that lead to him being the #3 pick.

Lastly, his best pick to date (Clingan) was followed up by going all in on a Chinese center (they have a long history of success ). When that guy likely busts out of the league that should seal the fate on Schmitz and send him crawling back to ESPN....

Schmitz has been overhyped, and I include myself in that, the results do not match the praise he gets....

[dckingsfan]

I'm less of a Deni believer than many on this thread...

I honestly don't see much skill development from him now from when I binged his WAS games after he was acquired by the Blazers...and that's okay, IMO. I see now a stronger, more efficient and smarter version of that WAS player. I think last year was an important year for him--from poor start, to benching, to playing exceptionally well to end the season--I think he got some important experience in the 'whatever it takes to win' area of the game. And that's how I see his career arc. I don't think Deni will ever be the "go get a bucket" or "last shot to win the game" type of player that so many NBA stars seem to be nowadays. I think his arc will be more of a dirtywork, efficient, FT line, good defense, smarts player.

In that way I see him as more of a Scottie Pippen type player. Scottie's superpower was defense and all-around game in his prime, whereas Deni's is his downhill craft. Now, obviously I'm not saying Deni is going to be as good as Scottie...it's just a comparison to type of role on a team. A lot of people point out Scottie's season as Alpha first option when MJ left as his most impressive. I never felt that way. To me the seasons proceeding when he knew his role, and excelled at what it took to make the team win were much more impressive.

Would it be nice if Deni took the next step into self-creation and 3pt proficiency that made him an Alpha? Of course. But I think it much more likely that he continues his trend toward A+ team focus, do-it-all play that will define his career.

1/2 full - 1/2 empty. Good question for the off-season. And where will he be in the next few seasons.

Code: Select all

Season   Age   MP      TS%      3P%   AST%   TOV%   USG%   ORtg
2020-21   20   1257   0.515   0.315    6.3    9.0   12.0   103
2021-22   21   1984   0.536   0.317   11.8   12.0   16.3   106
2022-23   22   2020   0.535   0.297   13.9   15.9   16.7   106
2023-24   23   2257   0.597   0.374   17.8   14.8   20.2   112
2024-25   24   2161   0.605   0.365   19.9   16.3   23.2   116

I think the first thing you see here is that he plays. I would expect him to log 2K+ minutes per season unless the Blazers get very unlucky.

The second is that his his gradual increase in usage hasn't led to a drop in TS%. That is a really good trend. And that has led to the gradual improvement in his overall offensive rating. Not a perfect comparison measure but a reasonable individual indicator.

And then the real problem, those TOs. They were terrible (as a ratio) early on in his career. But they aren't good, even now. What is a bit interesting is that the A/TO percentage has gotten better even with more usage. But that is his kryptonite to becoming a really good player - an all-star if you will.

Code: Select all

DRB%   STL%   BLK%   DRtg
20.2   1.2    1.0    113
20.5   1.5    1.9    113
21.9   1.6    1.2    114
22.1   1.2    1.3    119
21.2   1.6    1.5    113

Then the D. Solid. His defensive rebounding is a huge plus (as it leads to offense) but more importantly it allows a team to play small ball (if they had a PF that could run along with him, they don't so there is that). And it also will allow someone like Yang to stay on the floor. Deni makes others better on D as does Camara. But these aren't get you into the all-star game defensive stats. They do cover weaknesses of other players on the court. And unlike Camara, Deni can be a secondary ballhandler.

Code: Select all

BPM    VORP
-3.1   -0.4
-1.7    0.1
-2.3   -0.1
-0.9    0.6
 2.1    2.2

Which leads us to this. Deni made a small leap from his first 3 years to his 4th year. And another bigger leap in his fifth year. I think what he has done is cement his skills to stay at this level for next year. What I haven't seen (yet) is the skills for another jump.

So, a really good two-way basketball player. Next jump will be on handles & passing (cutting down on the TOs).

One thing. It wouldn't take a huge decline in the TOs to make a very big difference. Fingers crossed.

[DusterBuster]

Bookmark post, for those who care.

Cronin and the Blazers will “agree to part ways” next summer, Schmitz will be the new GM under Dundon. Cronin sees what’s coming, think he’s showing Schmitz how to do the job.

Does Schmitz even deserve to get the job though?

His draft picks have not been stellar, in fact, they have been pretty underwhelming. Outside of Clingan, not one of them would go higher in a redraft and Murray\Rupert are 1-2 years from being out of the NBA entirely and he had a "lottery grade" on them both.

Nobody wants to pay the enigmatic Sharpe north of $30mil/year and everyone (myself included) is banking on this being the year that Scoot shows the promise that lead to him being the #3 pick.

Lastly, his best pick to date (Clingan) was followed up by going all in on a Chinese center (they have a long history of success ). When that guy likely busts out of the league that should seal the fate on Schmitz and send him crawling back to ESPN....

Schmitz has been overhyped, and I include myself in that, the results do not match the praise he gets....

I think he's actually been quite a good talent evaluator. Expecting absolute home run bangers out of every draft pick is an unrealistic expectation. Overall, the Blazers haven't been terrible at drafting when you look big picture and set expectations properly, they've gotten clear NBA caliber players in nearly every draft - only ones I would argue weren't are who you mentioned, Murray and Rupert. I would argue those guys are also picked in a range where the NBA generally always gets a bit crapshooty, so having a few bust picks in the 20's or lower is actually quite common.

As for the broader question of if he deserves the job... who the hell knows? We're not privy to all the innerworkings day to day of things that GM's also have to do that could make them worth the job or not.

Being a good GM seems to be about 40% talent evaluation, 10% luck and 50% relationships.

[BlazersBroncos]

FWIW - w/ my 23 / 8.5 / 5 projection - even w/ that I dont see Deni as a true 'alpha' (IE a #1 option on a contender). I dont think anyone really sees that type of potential w/ him. But I think he can become a middle tier or even upper tier #2-on-a-contender caliber player. I dont think its insane to project Deni as the type of guy that can be the 2nd best player on a title winning team. Now, that doesnt mean too much since we clearly lack that #1 - and likely always will until we luck out in a generational way. But Deni is really, really good. 2-way guy who is elite at getting to the FT line and has developed a passable 3PT shot. There isnt much to dislike about him outside TO's and meh self 3PT shot creation (His form is just a bit too elongated for that to ever be a leaned on skill). But he is above average, at minimum, at basically every other trait / skill.

[dckingsfan]

Deni Avdija, 34 points on 22 shots, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers and 2 steals.

If Roman Sorkin has a good shooting night, they win.

[Walton1one]

Spoiler:

Bookmark post, for those who care.

Cronin and the Blazers will “agree to part ways” next summer, Schmitz will be the new GM under Dundon. Cronin sees what’s coming, think he’s showing Schmitz how to do the job.

Does Schmitz even deserve to get the job though?

His draft picks have not been stellar, in fact, they have been pretty underwhelming. Outside of Clingan, not one of them would go higher in a redraft and Murray\Rupert are 1-2 years from being out of the NBA entirely and he had a "lottery grade" on them both.

Nobody wants to pay the enigmatic Sharpe north of $30mil/year and everyone (myself included) is banking on this being the year that Scoot shows the promise that lead to him being the #3 pick.

Lastly, his best pick to date (Clingan) was followed up by going all in on a Chinese center (they have a long history of success ). When that guy likely busts out of the league that should seal the fate on Schmitz and send him crawling back to ESPN....

Schmitz has been overhyped, and I include myself in that, the results do not match the praise he gets....

I think he's actually been quite a good talent evaluator. Expecting absolute home run bangers out of every draft pick is an unrealistic expectation. Overall, the Blazers haven't been terrible at drafting when you look big picture and set expectations properly, they've gotten clear NBA caliber players in nearly every draft - only ones I would argue weren't are who you mentioned, Murray and Rupert. I would argue those guys are also picked in a range where the NBA generally always gets a bit crapshooty, so having a few bust picks in the 20's or lower is actually quite common.

As for the broader question of if he deserves the job... who the hell knows? We're not privy to all the innerworkings day to day of things that GM's also have to do that could make them worth the job or not.

Being a good GM seems to be about 40% talent evaluation, 10% luck and 50% relationships.

This is seeing his picks through Rose colored glasses IMO...

2022 - Shaedon Sharpe. I like Sharpe, still think he has some promise, maybe puts it all together, but saying he was a better pick that Daniels (#8) or Jalen Williams (#12) is a non starter, and yes OKC whiffs on Dieng @ #11, but hitting on Williams big time negates that and then some. Even players like Eason @ #17, Braun @ #21 and Kessler @ #22 are considered around Sharpe. So no, I don't think Schmitz drafted well here. Sharpe is not a bust, but also not considered a key player, heck he will be going into Y4 likely coming off the bench, not a good look for a #7 pick with 4 years of experience.

2023 - Scoot Henderson - Whiffing on Murray (#23) & Rupert (#43) aside, and your point stands that picks in those ranges are iffy at best, but he did say they had a lottery grade on both of them, Schmitz put that out there, so that is on him and if true, a bad miscalculation of their NBA talent as likely both will be out of the league in 1-2 years.

Scoot was a consensus Top 3 pick, but the fact is Amen Thompson (#4) had a lot of hype as well & they brought him in for a workout and passed on him anyway and Amen is a far better player than Scoot, now and likely long term, so that is a miss. We are in Y3 of the Scoot experience and I would find it hard to support (as a Scoot believer BTW) saying he was clearly a better pick than Coulibaly (#7), Wallace (#10) or Lively (#12) & again, here we are in Y3 and he is still coming off the bench, that is a clear miss, and the excuse that other GM's would have taken him at #3 is not a valid one, it is his job to find those players and he did not, he took the easy choice and so far that has been a miss. Now hopefully he has a breakout year, albeit coming off the bench probably makes that a little more challenging, but even best case scenario that he does, Amen Thompson is still better.

2024 - Donavan Clingan, now here I DO think he got a Top 3/4 talent @ #7, at least that is the way it looks after Y1. Salaun (#6) looks like a long term project, Holland (#5) has shown some glimpses but is not there yet, Sheppard (#3) will be given a chance this year so jury is out and Sarr (#2) looks like a (promising) project as well, so Schmitz deserves praise for this one, 1 out of 4 drafts, where he picked a player more valuable than where they were picked

2025 - Yang Hansen, and then he does this head scratcher. Ignoring why you would double down on a drop big and drafting the same style of player that you were universally praised for picking LY, the history of players from China is problematic to put it kindly. we won't know for a few years if this was a genius pick or just another in a line of poor picks, but given his 4 year history, and the rest of the league raising an eyebrow at this selection, I am not optimistic, nor do I believe that he saw something that every other scout did not. We will see how it plays out...

So yeah IMO Schmitz prowess\draft record is a myth, the REALITY begs to differ and yet he is still universally praised as this "draft savant" which his ACTUAL record clearly shows that he is not.

Now Sam Presti? He looks like a draft savant: Holmgren #2, Williams #12, Wallace #10, Topic #11 (Ajay Mitchell @ #38 was quite a snag as well) & Sorber @ #15? (TBD). You could make a compelling argument for Kevin Pritchard\IND and Rafael Stone\HOU as well.

[Walton1one]

Blazers Edge just had an article about POR draft record and the timeline for Schmitz does not look great...

This article just went to 2023, so only 2 drafts with Schmitz at the helm, Yellow (22', sub optimal) & Red (23', miss)

https://www.blazersedge.com/trail-blazers-analysis/102929/portland-trail-blazers-draft-history-michael-jordan-sam-bowie

Initial impressions:

The Blazers had 7 green drafts and 8 white over 40 years. That 37.5% doing well or at least no harm. That’s not terrible.
The news gets better because those green drafts can weigh a lot. One good green year can counteract all the yellows in the succeeding era. Consider 2006 with Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge, for instance, or 2012 with Damian Lillard.
That said, they’ve had 15 reds and 10 yellows. Worse, five of their greens came in 2001 or earlier, well ahead of the modern era. They haven’t had an optimal hit since Lillard.

...let’s circle back to the point we started out with. The Blazers can’t afford to be average in the draft. They need to be good, if not great. They have to be better than most, if not all, of their competitors to keep their heads above water.

Long story short, they haven’t been. If you’re looking for a major reason behind Portland’s struggles, this is as good as any. Until the Blazers are keener than everyone else at selecting and developing talent, they’re going to have to hope for an ultra-significant, generational strike that nobody can miss. Absent Victor Wembanyama or Cooper Flagg, Portland will remain prisoners of a narrowed talent pipeline. That’s not good news for the franchise or its fans.

[DusterBuster]

This is seeing his picks through Rose colored glasses IMO...

Not really, I just am trying to be realistic about the job of GM across the board.

You obviously have an agenda you want to push, that's fine. I'm just more willing to give GM's a bit more leeway than you clearly are. Expecting a GM to knock it out of the **** park every pick is just unrealistic.

There's a reason there's only one Sam Presti in the league. You can literally use the same "look at Presti" argument for every other GM or assistant GM in the league and they'll all look terrible. That's funhouse mirror exercise you're performing by trying to hold anyone up to that standard. It's a bar no one can ever reach. Give Presti his flowers, for sure, dude is a magician and, for my money, one of the best GM's I've ever seen in my 30 years of watching the league.

Even a guy like Bob Myers, who was looked at as a great GM for piecing together the Warriors, would fail your Presti comparison.

When evaluating GM's (or AGMs), I'm taking Presti out of the equation for what we should expect out of a GM. I'm looking more across the board at the 29 other GM's.

[Walton1one]

I did mention Kevin Pritchard & Rafael Stone as well, and there are others….

and the BE article brings up a very valid point, POR HAS to be able to hit on draft picks and history shows that they have not hit enough and Schmitz is another in a line of front office failures in that regard and he has had FOUR lottery picks in his tenure, 3 of those picks in the top 7, not good enough, that is not pushing an agenda but stating a fact\harsh reality

[dckingsfan]

Israel is out. Deni had a good game sans defensive rebounding which really was the nail in the coffin. That and Giannis went off ... I guess Deni isn't as good as Giannis - who would have known.

[playoffs]

Israel is out. Deni had a good game sans defensive rebounding which really was the nail in the coffin. That and Giannis went off ... I guess Deni isn't as good as Giannis - who would have known.

Giannis is ridiculous. Multiple times he had two defenders on him and just took both of them up with him and dunked the ball.

[Blaze the Nugz]

Spoiler:

Does Schmitz even deserve to get the job though?

His draft picks have not been stellar, in fact, they have been pretty underwhelming. Outside of Clingan, not one of them would go higher in a redraft and Murray\Rupert are 1-2 years from being out of the NBA entirely and he had a "lottery grade" on them both.

Nobody wants to pay the enigmatic Sharpe north of $30mil/year and everyone (myself included) is banking on this being the year that Scoot shows the promise that lead to him being the #3 pick.

Lastly, his best pick to date (Clingan) was followed up by going all in on a Chinese center (they have a long history of success ). When that guy likely busts out of the league that should seal the fate on Schmitz and send him crawling back to ESPN....

Schmitz has been overhyped, and I include myself in that, the results do not match the praise he gets....

I think he's actually been quite a good talent evaluator. Expecting absolute home run bangers out of every draft pick is an unrealistic expectation. Overall, the Blazers haven't been terrible at drafting when you look big picture and set expectations properly, they've gotten clear NBA caliber players in nearly every draft - only ones I would argue weren't are who you mentioned, Murray and Rupert. I would argue those guys are also picked in a range where the NBA generally always gets a bit crapshooty, so having a few bust picks in the 20's or lower is actually quite common.

As for the broader question of if he deserves the job... who the hell knows? We're not privy to all the innerworkings day to day of things that GM's also have to do that could make them worth the job or not.

Being a good GM seems to be about 40% talent evaluation, 10% luck and 50% relationships.

This is seeing his picks through Rose colored glasses IMO...

2022 - Shaedon Sharpe. I like Sharpe, still think he has some promise, maybe puts it all together, but saying he was a better pick that Daniels (#8) or Jalen Williams (#12) is a non starter, and yes OKC whiffs on Dieng @ #11, but hitting on Williams big time negates that and then some. Even players like Eason @ #17, Braun @ #21 and Kessler @ #22 are considered around Sharpe. So no, I don't think Schmitz drafted well here. Sharpe is not a bust, but also not considered a key player, heck he will be going into Y4 likely coming off the bench, not a good look for a #7 pick with 4 years of experience.

2023 - Scoot Henderson - Whiffing on Murray (#23) & Rupert (#43) aside, and your point stands that picks in those ranges are iffy at best, but he did say they had a lottery grade on both of them, Schmitz put that out there, so that is on him and if true, a bad miscalculation of their NBA talent as likely both will be out of the league in 1-2 years.

Scoot was a consensus Top 3 pick, but the fact is Amen Thompson (#4) had a lot of hype as well & they brought him in for a workout and passed on him anyway and Amen is a far better player than Scoot, now and likely long term, so that is a miss. We are in Y3 of the Scoot experience and I would find it hard to support (as a Scoot believer BTW) saying he was clearly a better pick than Coulibaly (#7), Wallace (#10) or Lively (#12) & again, here we are in Y3 and he is still coming off the bench, that is a clear miss, and the excuse that other GM's would have taken him at #3 is not a valid one, it is his job to find those players and he did not, he took the easy choice and so far that has been a miss. Now hopefully he has a breakout year, albeit coming off the bench probably makes that a little more challenging, but even best case scenario that he does, Amen Thompson is still better.

2024 - Donavan Clingan, now here I DO think he got a Top 3/4 talent @ #7, at least that is the way it looks after Y1. Salaun (#6) looks like a long term project, Holland (#5) has shown some glimpses but is not there yet, Sheppard (#3) will be given a chance this year so jury is out and Sarr (#2) looks like a (promising) project as well, so Schmitz deserves praise for this one, 1 out of 4 drafts, where he picked a player more valuable than where they were picked

2025 - Yang Hansen, and then he does this head scratcher. Ignoring why you would double down on a drop big and drafting the same style of player that you were universally praised for picking LY, the history of players from China is problematic to put it kindly. we won't know for a few years if this was a genius pick or just another in a line of poor picks, but given his 4 year history, and the rest of the league raising an eyebrow at this selection, I am not optimistic, nor do I believe that he saw something that every other scout did not. We will see how it plays out...

So yeah IMO Schmitz prowess\draft record is a myth, the REALITY begs to differ and yet he is still universally praised as this "draft savant" which his ACTUAL record clearly shows that he is not.

Now Sam Presti? He looks like a draft savant: Holmgren #2, Williams #12, Wallace #10, Topic #11 (Ajay Mitchell @ #38 was quite a snag as well) & Sorber @ #15? (TBD). You could make a compelling argument for Kevin Pritchard\IND and Rafael Stone\HOU as well.

Are you really including Topic and Sorber in your evidence that Presti is a draft savant? They haven't played a single NBA game yet. I mean, Presti is certainly a good drafter, but idk how you can say those two draft picks demonstrate his genius when they have yet to produce even a single data point. Williams and Wallace were great picks. As for Chet, it looks like he could be the optimal pick, but also he's played only 46% of possible regular season games since entering the league. Jury is still out on whether his body will tolerate the NBA long term.

Meanwhile, you're pooping on Scoot, who showed progress in year two. He could end up being a more impactful player than Amen -- their career trajectories are not written in stone, and everyone knows Amen's jump shot is bottom decile of the NBA. You're projecting other GM's picks as quality but not giving the same benefit to Scoot or Hansen. Clearly you are wearing glasses of some other tint, perhaps #007AC1.

Btw, why would you include Hansen and Clingan being duplicative in your critique of Schmitz? He's not the one making the pick. He's the talent evaluator. If you have a problem with doubling down on a drop big, your problem is with Cronin, not Schmitz.

[m0ng0]

I did mention Kevin Pritchard & Rafael Stone as well, and there are others….

and the BE article brings up a very valid point, POR HAS to be able to hit on draft picks and history shows that they have not hit enough and Schmitz is another in a line of front office failures in that regard and he has had FOUR lottery picks in his tenure, 3 of those picks in the top 7, not good enough, that is not pushing an agenda but stating a fact\harsh reality

What does this have to do with the Euro tournament Karen?

[Wizenheimer]

if the discussion is about how to gauge Portland's draft picks since Schmitz arrived:

if it's the case that 7th pick Sharpe in his 4th season, and 3rd pick Scoot in his 3rd season, and neither is starting, that's a pretty strong lean toward mediocre results....or mismatched coaching; adding in the Murray selection doesn't make things better. Also, the Blazers had the chance to draft Camara but instead chose Rupert

Clingan may be the best selection and I'll admit I wasn't keen on drafting him....but I'm not being paid a million dollars a year to make draft picks

[DusterBuster]

if the discussion is about how to gauge Portland's draft picks since Schmitz arrived:

if it's the case that 7th pick Sharpe in his 4th season, and 3rd pick Scoot in his 3rd season, and neither is starting, that's a pretty strong lean toward mediocre results....or mismatched coaching; adding in the Murray selection doesn't make things better. Also, the Blazers had the chance to draft Camara but instead chose Rupert

Clingan may be the best selection and I'll admit I wasn't keen on drafting him....but I'm not being paid a million dollars a year to make draft picks

How much of this is an indication of their quality and how much is this just a byproduct of the rosters overall construction by Cronin? I've been strong in my opinion that Simons should have been moved the year they drafted Scoot and just throw him to the fire. Cronin didn't force Billups' hand on the matter and coaches will always give preference to the high-priced vets over rookies. Sharpe is getting a similar squeeze from a roster construction standpoint due to another expensive veteran in Jerami Grant.

This isn't meant to be making excuses - which it will certainly come off as - but just to set realistic expectations with how the draft works for all teams not run by Sam Presti.

I just see some people here expecting every pick to be an All Star / All NBA / HOF player. Nearly all of the players they've targeted have at the very least been a rotational NBA player, obviously with some you'd hope for more, but also a better batting average than other franchises who have had full on non-NBA quality players picked in the lottery.

You can say I should expect more, and that's fine, I just don't feel that's a very realistic expectation with the crapshoot that the NBA lottery and draft can be.

[DusterBuster]

Israel is out. Deni had a good game sans defensive rebounding which really was the nail in the coffin. That and Giannis went off ... I guess Deni isn't as good as Giannis - who would have known.

This is the one thing with Deni where I have to keep my expectations to a minimum. Love his game and what he can provide, but man, it's such a drastic comparison when you see him go against the best of the best like Luka and Giannis. Deni can be a offensive hub for sure, but he's just not there for being "That Dude". Maybe he'll surprise in the NBA, but he's looking far closer to a Sengun-level player than anywhere near that one-guy who can just carry a team night in and night out.

Blazers definitely need to be built as a complete roster vs building around a single gravitational player.

[zzaj]

We're getting pretty far afield from the OT with the Schmitz talk...but it's offseason, so...

I've stood up for Schmitz for a long time, mostly because he actually wrote me back with some pretty crazy and in-depth scouting analysis when I had some questions about a few players, back when he was doing DraftXpress. So I have a bit of personal bias...

That being said, I find it hard to really judge somebody in his position, when maybe 95% of others in his same position get it wrong too. There are so many layers of variables when it comes to scouting and drafting--many of which are completely outside of anybody's control other than the player themselves. It's a mostly miss part of the industry...it's essentially gambling, which is also the part that makes it intoxicating to some.

[Wizenheimer]

if the discussion is about how to gauge Portland's draft picks since Schmitz arrived:

if it's the case that 7th pick Sharpe in his 4th season, and 3rd pick Scoot in his 3rd season, and neither is starting, that's a pretty strong lean toward mediocre results....or mismatched coaching; adding in the Murray selection doesn't make things better. Also, the Blazers had the chance to draft Camara but instead chose Rupert

Clingan may be the best selection and I'll admit I wasn't keen on drafting him....but I'm not being paid a million dollars a year to make draft picks

How much of this is an indication of their quality and how much is this just a byproduct of the rosters overall construction by Cronin? I've been strong in my opinion that Simons should have been moved the year they drafted Scoot and just throw him to the fire. Cronin didn't force Billups' hand on the matter and coaches will always give preference to the high-priced vets over rookies. Sharpe is getting a similar squeeze from a roster construction standpoint due to another expensive veteran in Jerami Grant.

This isn't meant to be making excuses - which it will certainly come off as - but just to set realistic expectations with how the draft works for all teams not run by Sam Presti.

I just see some people here expecting every pick to be an All Star / All NBA / HOF player. Nearly all of the players they've targeted have at the very least been a rotational NBA player, obviously with some you'd hope for more, but also a better batting average than other franchises who have had full on non-NBA quality players picked in the lottery.

You can say I should expect more, and that's fine, I just don't feel that's a very realistic expectation with the crapshoot that the NBA lottery and draft can be.

I never said that top-7 picks should be all-stars

what I said was a 7th pick and a 3rd pick should, by their 3rd & 4th seasons, be starters, especially on a lottery/play-in level team. If they aren't, then the selections were borderline fails

Blazer top -10ish history:

8th pick - Geoff Petrie - immediate starter
2nd pick - Sydney - immediate starter
1st pick - Larue Martin - monumental fail (picked after: Bob McAdoo; Julius Erving; Paul Westphal)
1st pick - Bill Walton - immediate starter
6th pick - Lionel Hollins - immediate starter
5th pick - Wally Walker - fail (picked after: Adrian Dantley; Quinn Buckner; Robert Parish, Alex English; Dennis Johnson)
1st pick - Mychal Thompson - immediate starter
2nd pick - Sam Bowie - immediate starter, when healthy...but Jordan, Barkley, Stockton after
6th pick - Martell Webster - backup-fail - bench/backup - b (picked after: CP3, Deron Williams, Danny Granger, David Lee)
2nd pick - LMA - full time starter in 2nd season after Zach traded
6th pick - Brandon Roy - immediate starter
1st pick - Greg Oden - "oh the humanity!"
6th pick - Dame - immediate starter

7th pick - Sharpe - has only started half of the games he's played and was benched for 'defense' in his 3rd season
3rd pick - Scoot - backup/bench
7th pick - Clingan - designated starter in 2nd season

of those 13 top-10-ish picks in prior Blazer history, either they were immediate starters or they were failures; no middle ground (unless you consider Martell middle ground). 8 were immediate starters; 5 were failures; two of those because of repeated injuries

certainly, if Sharpe or Scoot become solid starters before their rookie-scale is over than the pick(s) could be deemed successful; but this is Sharpe's 4th season and last season of rookie scale. But if they don't it's hard to justify. Teams just don't normally get lots of chances in the top half of a lottery and they need to maximize success when they do.

again, Schmitz has had 3 consecutive drafts with top-7 picks. If in the 4th season of that string, only one of those picks has established himself enough to be a starter, that sure looks like failure to me. Now, I think there's a pretty good chance that Sharpe will start; but it is Chauncey and he has never brought Grant off the bench. Speaking of Chauncey, that brings up the possibility that if Ayton hadn't asked for a buy-out it could be that none of those 3, top-7 picks would be starters this season....ouch!

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unrelated, mostly, but looking at that 2005 draft: Deron Williams vs CP3. There was legitimate debate for a number of years about who was better. The thing is Williams retired in 2017 while Paul is still playing 8 years later, and will play this season as well

[zzaj]

if the discussion is about how to gauge Portland's draft picks since Schmitz arrived:

if it's the case that 7th pick Sharpe in his 4th season, and 3rd pick Scoot in his 3rd season, and neither is starting, that's a pretty strong lean toward mediocre results....or mismatched coaching; adding in the Murray selection doesn't make things better. Also, the Blazers had the chance to draft Camara but instead chose Rupert

Clingan may be the best selection and I'll admit I wasn't keen on drafting him....but I'm not being paid a million dollars a year to make draft picks

How much of this is an indication of their quality and how much is this just a byproduct of the rosters overall construction by Cronin? I've been strong in my opinion that Simons should have been moved the year they drafted Scoot and just throw him to the fire. Cronin didn't force Billups' hand on the matter and coaches will always give preference to the high-priced vets over rookies. Sharpe is getting a similar squeeze from a roster construction standpoint due to another expensive veteran in Jerami Grant.

This isn't meant to be making excuses - which it will certainly come off as - but just to set realistic expectations with how the draft works for all teams not run by Sam Presti.

I just see some people here expecting every pick to be an All Star / All NBA / HOF player. Nearly all of the players they've targeted have at the very least been a rotational NBA player, obviously with some you'd hope for more, but also a better batting average than other franchises who have had full on non-NBA quality players picked in the lottery.

You can say I should expect more, and that's fine, I just don't feel that's a very realistic expectation with the crapshoot that the NBA lottery and draft can be.

I never said that top-7 picks should be all-stars

what I said was a 7th pick and a 3rd pick should, by their 3rd & 4th seasons, be starters, especially on a lottery/play-in level team. If they aren't, then the selections were borderline fails...

I'm in agreement here...for a team that hasn't been close to PO contention since a #3 and #7 draft pick were made, it's a good indication of the "straddle" that's happened that those picks don't have a clear path as starters.

IMO, the team can't really have it both ways--they can't have two picks in the Top 10 that aren't no-question starting caliber players on a bad team, and also call those picks good picks.

There is a slim chance that both Scoot and Sharpe break out and become undeniable starters on the Blazers--I'd say the chances of that happening are pretty small at this point. Based on what we can all guess Billups' lineups will be, both would have to have a larger court impact than probably Holiday and Camara (and eventually, hopefully, Lillard).

[Wizenheimer]

I'm in agreement here...for a team that hasn't been close to PO contention since a #3 and #7 draft pick were made, it's a good indication of the "straddle" that's happened that those picks don't have a clear path as starters.

IMO, the team can't really have it both ways--they can't have two picks in the Top 10 that aren't no-question starting caliber players on a bad team, and also call those picks good picks.

There is a slim chance that both Scoot and Sharpe break out and become undeniable starters on the Blazers--I'd say the chances of that happening are pretty small at this point. Based on what we can all guess Billups' lineups will be, both would have to have a larger court impact than probably Holiday and Camara (and eventually, hopefully, Lillard).

I get there is a component of gambling when picks are made. But clearly, the stakes are much higher when the picks are higher. Teams can not afford a lot of mediocre results when making top-7 picks. For a team like Portland that never attracts all-star level free agents, the only 2 ways to get elite talent is the draft or trades; and those trades usually require a draft pick coming back as the way to get that talent

there's another factor that needs to be noted too: it may be that the 'best' pick of the three top-7 picks the Blazers made was Clingan. Here's the thing: Schmitz/Cronin had a 74 game NCAA career for Clingan to evaluate and gauge. And that included a dozen post-season games. That's a lot of opportunities to gauge a player against top-level competition

but with Sharpe and Scoot, Schmitz had exactly 0 games of NCAA level action to gauge. He was taking a much bigger risk of failure and excusing that kind of gamble isn't a persuasive argument to me

I'd be prone to assuming that the Blazer front office may already have judged Scoot a wasted pick. I just can't see a 3rd pick used on a PG and two years later, the same team trades for a PG, then signs another veteran PG if they really believe Scoot is the PGOTF