2008-09 Backup PF?

[Tim Lehrbach]

On the other hand, if I were the coach, I'd look at having either Oden or Joel on the court at all times as a tremendous advantage over most teams and a guarantee of the Blazers playing good defense for 48 minutes.

I just don't believe Nate shares my opinion.

[abuzz]

I find it funny that everyone, up til now, is suggesting we trade either Frye or Outlaw, when those two are probably the ones we want to keep at the backup 4 and 5. Its Przybilla we should be looking to get rid of so the Blazers can actually have real capspace in 2009. Add almost $7 million to the $10 million figure we'll likely have and you get $17 million, easily enough to land a big-time player looking to win for the next decade.

Oden/Frye
Aldridge/Outlaw
Webster/Jones
Roy/Fernandez
Blake (?)/Rodriguez

This is the core I'd like to see with the hopeful replacement of Blake with a really good defending/shooting point. Someone like Leandro Barbossa (a dream, I know). I could also see Roy and Fernandez as the starting back court assuming Rudy can adjust quickly. Everyone else should be used to either get rid of long term salary or trade up in the 2008 draft.

You're right but sometimes the obvious is not always apparent. Pryz's stock is growing with many teams who would love to get him for his shot blocking, defense and veteran leadership. He could also garner cap space and/or be part of a package that has the Blazer playing almost up to Memorial day for years to come.

Both Frye and Outlaw have more utility than Joel. Frye can spell relief at the 4 or 5 spot and Outlaw at the 3 or 4 spot.

[abuzz]

On the other hand, if I were the coach, I'd look at having either Oden or Joel on the court at all times as a tremendous advantage over most teams and a guarantee of the Blazers playing good defense for 48 minutes.

I just don't believe Nate shares my opinion.

All well and good, but Amare, McDyess are good examples of not doing too much too soon or too long. 48 minutes day in and day out when Oden returns could be a death knell to his career if he were to get injured again. The Blazers should have capable back ups/alternatives if and when Oden needs a rest.

[Telfaire]

I think Frye is expendable, with Przy, Outlaw and McBob coming off the bench. As been said, Outlaw-Oden is a good bigmen tandem, same as LMA-Oden. So what we need is a bigman who'll compliment LMA at center, I think Bass would fit the bill.

[Butter]

The major flaw in logic I see repeatedly here is the idea to improve upon a player by replacing him with an unknown commodity. As if somehow the devil we don't know is somehow better than the one we do know. We can all agree it's a good idea to improve by replacing our lesser players with better players but we underestimate how difficult a task that is. We can speculate about how good Rudy is but until we actually see him against NBA competition, we have no idea whether his positives outweigh his shortcomings. Rudy is most likely not as good as Jarrett Jack is. If he were more likely a better player than Jack is, he would've been a lottery pick in the draft. The first step in handling Rudy is getting him into training camp and finding out if he can play in the NBA. Most players picked 24th are not long-term NBA contributors.

Well, Jack was picked 22 overall in the 2005 draft, while Rudy was 24th last year, so I guess by your logic, that is a valid point...

[Mr Odd]

Jack & Frye will probably be moved if the right deal comes by.. .

You cant really say Rudy wont be good or will be good 'til he
plays in the NBA for atleast a season or two. Just because
a player is not picked high doesnt mean he cant be better
then someone else that was picked higher in the NBA.
You also have to keep in mind Rudy has done better
after he was drafted, I have a feeling if the draft
was today he would move up, however Im not
sure he would of been a lotto pick with the
players that were in his draft class.. .
Rudy came out in a draft class that
was said to be one of the best in
a long, long time.. .Anyway
we will just have to wait &
see the next few seasons
to see if Rudy is good.

I like Channing tho (& Jack sometimes), but I think you do have to
trade some of the players that you might not want to, to get other
players that could help you more in areas you need. Its risky but
sometimes you have to if you want to reach that next level of wins.

[Butter]

Jack & Frye will probably be moved if the right deal comes by.. .

You cant really say Rudy wont be good or will be good 'til he
plays in the NBA for atleast a season or two. Just because
a player is not picked high doesnt mean he cant be better
then someone else that was picked higher in the NBA.
You also have to keep in mind Rudy has done better
after he was drafted, I have a feeling if the draft
was today he would move up, however Im not
sure he would of been a lotto pick with the
players that were in his draft class.. .
Rudy came out in a draft class that
was said to be one of the best in
a long, long time.. .Anyway
we will just have to wait &
see the next few seasons
to see if Rudy is good.

I like Channing tho (& Jack sometimes), but I think you do have to
trade some of the players that you might not want to, to get other
players that could help you more in areas you need. Its risky but
sometimes you have to if you want to reach that next level of wins.

Its a good point, if we don't want to trade them, it probably means they have trade value.

[BlackMamba]

well, it could all depend.

but lets not forget that it will still be oden's rookie season, and that pryz and frye will see lots of minutes covering him from time to time.

but i think that the main rotation will be blake, roy, martell, aldridge, oden, outlaw, frye, jones, pryz.

all the other players could be the odd man out, cause something that is great about the blazers roster is that some or most of the players can play 2-3 positions, that give the rotation another dimention.

[mojomarc]

The major flaw in logic I see repeatedly here is the idea to improve upon a player by replacing him with an unknown commodity. As if somehow the devil we don't know is somehow better than the one we do know. We can all agree it's a good idea to improve by replacing our lesser players with better players but we underestimate how difficult a task that is. We can speculate about how good Rudy is but until we actually see him against NBA competition, we have no idea whether his positives outweigh his shortcomings. Rudy is most likely not as good as Jarrett Jack is.

The major flaw in the logic I see you promoting here is that we do, within a pretty good degree of certainty, know exactly how good Rudy is. First, we've seen his production is a league that is better than a college or NBDL in terms of competition. Not only has he competed successfully in that league, but he is the freaking MVP of that league. Since when has Jarrett Jack been the MVP of anything? High school?

Secondly, we have seen him play against NBA level talent, as he has represented Spain against teams, including the United States, over the last several seasons. NBA players, having played against him, have raved about his abilities. NBA coaches, such as Nate, have also commented about how impressed they were watching them play against the cream of NBA talent.

Finally, your argument that just because a player hasn't played a minute in the NBA means automatically that said player is worse than a player clearly uncapable of being an NBA level starter for a halfway decent team further denegrates the capability of scouting in the NBA. We knew, before he ever set foot in the NBA, that Sabonis was going to be a top player in the NBA. We knew that Brandon Roy and Lamarcus Aldridge would be solid NBA players before they ever put on a Portland jersey. We didn't know exactly how good they would be, perhaps, but we had a pretty darned good idea that they wouldn't be mediochre players like Jack is. Would you suggest that we trade Oden for, say, Samuel Dalambert right now simply on the basis that we've seen Dalambert play in the NBA, know he is mediochre, but because we only know what Oden can do in college he's likely going to be a worse player than him? What sort of logic is that? It's not like the dark ages of foreigners in the NBA anymore, where there was more risk taking them over NCAA picks. It's the opposite these days, at least when it comes to more mature talents like Rudy, Manu Ginobilli, Luis Scola, etc. Scola is a perfect example--he's an 8/5 player in only 20 minutes a game as a rookie, which is very comparable what Jack is doing this year in 27mpg (different positions, I know, but I'm comparing Scola to an average PF and Jack to an average PG), and yet Rudy is considered a better player at a younger age than Scola was in the same league.

Remember--it's not like Rudy is a high school player, and it's not like he doesn't play in a system where he's playing a college four-corners offense where the speed of the NBA will be foreign to him. He has played in an NBA-speed offense against a level of competition that has proven itself to be very close to NBA quality, closer than any other league we know, and he has excelled. He's not a sure thing in the sense that he is 100% certain (nothing is), but I think it's very legit to say that we can be at least 75% certain, and I like those odds.

If he were more likely a better player than Jack is, he would've been a lottery pick in the draft.

Not true--if he were a better player than Jack and had a contract situation that would have guaranteed his playing in the NBA this year he would have been a lottery pick in the draft. That's, of course, assuming Jack coming out last year would have been a lottery pick. Given his upside and the fact that Acie Law barely made the draft lottery despite having worlds of upside over Jack, I think that's kind of specious to suggest that if Rudy weren't a lotto pick he couldn't possibly be better than Jack.

The first step in handling Rudy is getting him into training camp and finding out if he can play in the NBA. Most players picked 24th are not long-term NBA contributors.

The examples of late-picked Euros that prove that wrong would take more time than I have to enumerate. Ginobilli, the player Rudy is most often compared to, was drafted at the same age in the 28th slot, and that's just the most applicable example.

[borgradr]

I find it strange that most everyone, up til now, is suggesting we trade either Frye or Outlaw, when those two are probably the ones we want to keep at the backup 4 and 5. Its Przybilla we should be looking to get rid of so the Blazers can actually have real capspace in 2009. Add almost $7 million to the $10 million figure we'll likely have and you get $17 million, easily enough to land a big-time player looking to win for the next decade.

Oden/Frye
Aldridge/Outlaw
Webster/Jones
Roy/Fernandez
Blake (?)/Rodriguez

This is the core I'd like to see with the hopeful replacement of Blake with a really good defending/shooting point. Someone like Leandro Barbossa (a dream, I know). I could also see Roy and Fernandez as the starting back court assuming Rudy can adjust quickly. Everyone else should be used to either get rid of long term salary or trade up in the 2008 draft.

[borgradr]

Whoops, I posted that earlier...

[mojomarc]

I find it strange that most everyone, up til now, is suggesting we trade either Frye or Outlaw, when those two are probably the ones we want to keep at the backup 4 and 5. Its Przybilla we should be looking to get rid of so the Blazers can actually have real capspace in 2009. Add almost $7 million to the $10 million figure we'll likely have and you get $17 million, easily enough to land a big-time player looking to win for the next decade.

Oden/Frye
Aldridge/Outlaw
Webster/Jones
Roy/Fernandez
Blake (?)/Rodriguez

This is the core I'd like to see with the hopeful replacement of Blake with a really good defending/shooting point. Someone like Leandro Barbossa (a dream, I know). I could also see Roy and Fernandez as the starting back court assuming Rudy can adjust quickly. Everyone else should be used to either get rid of long term salary or trade up in the 2008 draft.

I disagree on Przy. He is still, by far, the best backup center we have for Oden, and likely the best we can get on the free market for such a reasonable price. As far as I'm concerned, he is untouchable at this point.

[Butter]

-= original quote snipped =-


I disagree on Przy. He is still, by far, the best backup center we have for Oden, and likely the best we can get on the free market for such a reasonable price. As far as I'm concerned, he is untouchable at this point.

I agree Mojo. I understand what borgradr was getting at. From a salary perspective it is a valid idea. However, to keep Frye, they'll probably have to pay him close to the same amount.

The other problem is the dynamic of the second team. If the Blazers have Frye at the Center and Outlaw at the PF, they'll have a weak front line. Pryzbilla adds a very significant level of protection to whoever that PF is.

[Tim Lehrbach]

-= original quote snipped =-



All well and good, but Amare, McDyess are good examples of not doing too much too soon or too long. 48 minutes day in and day out when Oden returns could be a death knell to his career if he were to get injured again. The Blazers should have capable back ups/alternatives if and when Oden needs a rest.

I wasn't suggesting that Oden should play 48 minutes.

[d-train]

The major flaw in the logic I see you promoting here is that we do, within a pretty good degree of certainty, know exactly how good Rudy is. First, we've seen his production is a league that is better than a college or NBDL in terms of competition. Not only has he competed successfully in that league, but he is the freaking MVP of that league. Since when has Jarrett Jack been the MVP of anything? High school?

Secondly, we have seen him play against NBA level talent, as he has represented Spain against teams, including the United States, over the last several seasons. NBA players, having played against him, have raved about his abilities. NBA coaches, such as Nate, have also commented about how impressed they were watching them play against the cream of NBA talent.

The scouting staff's of the 23 NBA teams that passed on Rudy know more about evaluating talent than anyone in this forum. The fact that all these NBA teams passed on him doesn't mean he isn't a good prospect but it does tell us what level of prospect he is. You want to believe he is a sure thing and you could be right but the experts from 23 NBA teams disagree with you.

Finally, your argument that just because a player hasn't played a minute in the NBA means automatically that said player is worse than a player clearly uncapable of being an NBA level starter for a halfway decent team further denegrates the capability of scouting in the NBA.

My argument is obviously good enough that you need to misstate it before offering a rebuttal. Rather than denigrating the capability of NBA scouting, my argument relies upon them. I offer no opinion of my own on Rudy's NBA ability. I've never seen him and will not see him until he is in the NBA.

We knew, before he ever set foot in the NBA, that Sabonis was going to be a top player in the NBA.

I talked to Bucky Buckwalter at a game in 1990. I asked him if he was going to get Arvydas onto the team. He told me Arvydas was playing in Spain and asked if I had seen him play there. I said I had not. He said Arvydas was dominating because the talent level was bad but that half the time he didn't bother to run the court. Then he asked do you think a player that doesn't play hard can compete in the NBA. I said I didn't know about that. Then he said Duckworth is a better player than Sabonis would be. That conversation gave me the impression there was plenty of doubt about Arvydas here by the Blazers.

Not true--if he were a better player than Jack and had a contract situation that would have guaranteed his playing in the NBA this year he would have been a lottery pick in the draft. That's, of course, assuming Jack coming out last year would have been a lottery pick. Given his upside and the fact that Acie Law barely made the draft lottery despite having worlds of upside over Jack, I think that's kind of specious to suggest that if Rudy weren't a lotto pick he couldn't possibly be better than Jack.

I haven't seen any indication that Acie Law is a better prospect than Jarrett Jack is. The last pick in the lottery is the 14th or about the middle of the 1st round. I believe Jack's value is about a middle 1st round pick. I don't buy the argument that Rudy's draft position was significantly affected by his contract status. Most NBA teams don't expect any contribution from their 1st round pick for at least a year.

The examples of late-picked Euros that prove that wrong would take more time than I have to enumerate. Ginobilli, the player Rudy is most often compared to, was drafted at the same age in the 28th slot, and that's just the most applicable example.

Manu I believe was the 56th pick. However, I agree the way Spurs handled Manu is exactly how the Blazers should handle Rudy. The Spurs didn't make any assumptions about Manu's ability until he was in the league and demonstrated what his abilities were. Manu proved he could play but many more Euros failed to make it in the NBA.

[d-train]

Along those same lines, then, shouldn't Tony Parker and Manu have been lottery selections as well? Now, I'm not saying he is going to be as good as them two, but just saying well, he was selected 24th, so he must not be any better than Jack isn't all that great of an argument. First of all, the draft is a crap shoot, and with as many poor GMs and talent evaluators that there are, it is not uncommon to see a decent player picked after the lottery. That seems to go even more for international players that are not over 6'10".
As for the assumption that most players picked 24th are not long term contributors, Kyle Lowry, Luther Head, Delonte West, nenad Krstic, Andrei Kirilenko, Derek Fisher, Latrell Sprewell, Sam Cassell, Rick Fox, and Sabonis are some of the 24th picks in the last 20 years. As many good to at least decent contributors in that list as there probably is at a random spot in the lottery.

The point of my post isn't to say Rudy sucks because he was just the 24th pick in the draft. My point is that we need to see Rudy play in the NBA before we know he is better than other good players in the NBA are. I point out that people are making assumptions about him that aren't backed by facts or the facts are being substituted with amateur talent evaluations.

[waverider]

Guys, another point to consider in this is who we might trade scenario is JAMES JONES. The odds are 99% he will opt out and he IMO is very likely to get the full MLE or very close to it, assuming he keeps playing near the level he has. He'll get at least what Kapono got.
Therefore an important decision will be made this summer whether the Blazers will pay him that kind of money. How they decide could help determine how the other dominos fall.