Webster or Outlaw

[ebott]

Martell Webster

The tough part is that we're not comparing apples to apples. Martell is the starting small forward. Outlaw is the backup power forward.
They also have very different roles. Martell's role is complimentary to Roy. He's playing in a much more structured offense that's built around Brandon. Outlaw's role is to be a scoring spark plug off the bench and one on one scorer in the forth quarter.

As Jsun947 pointed out, I'm not sure there's gonna be room for Outlaw next season with Oden joining the team. Sure, we could trade Frye instead and have Outlaw as our backup power forward.

I also don't see Outlaw's role being as important next season either. I really think our offense is going to change dramatically with Greg on the team. I think we're going to be much more inside out and there won't be nearly as much one on one action.

It would suck to see Outlaw go to another team and take his game to a whole other level. But I think it would suck even more to have his role diminish next season and demand a trade.

[Butter]

Martell Webster

The tough part is that we're not comparing apples to apples. Martell is the starting small forward. Outlaw is the backup power forward.
They also have very different roles. Martell's role is complimentary to Roy. He's playing in a much more structured offense that's built around Brandon. Outlaw's role is to be a scoring spark plug off the bench and one on one scorer in the forth quarter.

As Jsun947 pointed out, I'm not sure there's gonna be room for Outlaw next season with Oden joining the team. Sure, we could trade Frye instead and have Outlaw as our backup power forward.

I also don't see Outlaw's role being as important next season either. I really think our offense is going to change dramatically with Greg on the team. I think we're going to be much more inside out and there won't be nearly as much one on one action.

It would suck to see Outlaw go to another team and take his game to a whole other level. But I think it would suck even more to have his role diminish next season and demand a trade.

And if his role diminishes next year, is his value going to go up or down?

[Fitz303]

This Outlaw is a PF and his role is going to diminish is garbage.. Just because he is being put into the PF spot right now because we're short on big men doesnt mean that hes a PF.

Does that mean that Al Harrington, the guy who played SF for Indiana, is a Center because thats the role he has been forced to play in GS. Hes a basketball player. Outlaw would be just as good, if not better, if he was playing out on the wing. He played LeBron James pretty well the other night. Melo is about the same size as Outlaw, and actually weighs more, yet he plays SF. Just because hes forced to play it now, doesnt mean thats the position that hes best fit to play.

Put Outlaw, Aldridge, and Oden in the front court together and thats a scary lineup.

[tucson]

Who will compliment the Big Three better? We won't need much scoring out of the 3 or backup 4. But we will always need outside shooting for spacing. Outlaw may have a higher ceiling than Webster but a more experienced, more confident Webster might compliment the big three better.

If Webster isn't offered up in a major trade between now and next training camp then how much he's willing to sign an extension for could determine whether he stays long term. If he's willing to take a Outlaw sized 3 year contract at a reasonable rate, then he'll probably get the extension. Otherwise if he holds out of a Miles type 6 year deal then I doubt KP will keep him.

[ebott]

And if his role diminishes next year, is his value going to go up or down?

Down. Whenever a player announces they're unhappy their trade value goes down.

This Outlaw is a PF and his role is going to diminish is garbage.. Just because he is being put into the PF spot right now because we're short on big men doesnt mean that hes a PF.

Does that mean that Al Harrington, the guy who played SF for Indiana, is a Center because thats the role he has been forced to play in GS. Hes a basketball player. Outlaw would be just as good, if not better, if he was playing out on the wing. He played LeBron James pretty well the other night. Melo is about the same size as Outlaw, and actually weighs more, yet he plays SF. Just because hes forced to play it now, doesnt mean thats the position that hes best fit to play.

That's a nice theory. But in the real world Outlaw just hasn't been that effective at the 3. All his success has been at the 4.

I agree that the reason he started playing at the 4 was that we were short on bigmen at the end of last season. But it's not a coincidence that he became much more productive when he was being guarded by bigger slower guys that are less willing to guard him on the perimeter.

Put Outlaw, Aldridge, and Oden in the front court together and thats a scary lineup.

Or it could be that Outlaw just can't hack it at the 3 and goes back to being relatively ineffective.

[SoHo]

I think a big point people need to consider here is what Ebott mentioned, this isn't just about this year, we need to consider who compliments the future of our team that includes Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez.

I don't buy the "Outlaw shoots the three at a higher percentage than Webster" argument some of you are making. Outlaw shoots a higher percentage but Martell has shot almost FOUR times as many. Maybe Outlaw is adding that shot to his repertoire, but he is NOT a shooter. Martell on the other hand is.

The other thing to consider is the composition of our team this year compared to next year. Oden is going to be in the post and that will certainly make our game focus a lot more on the strengths of players like Martell and James Jones who are good shooters.

The second unit will also feature Rudy who is an excellent penetrator and scorer. Perhaps taking over some of the scoring gap if Outlaw is traded? Of course his transition to the NBA game remains to be seen.

Looking forward I think Webster's strengths fit this team better. Clearly the question is whether Webster can elevate his game like Outlaw is starting to elevate his. This is a question that doesn't have a crystal clear answer, but Martell has shown enough, in my mind, to warrant saying he can become the player that compliments this team better.

[Fitz303]

-= original quote snipped =-



I agree that the reason he started playing at the 4 was that we were short on bigmen at the end of last season. But it's not a coincidence that he became much more productive when he was being guarded by bigger slower guys that are less willing to guard him on the perimeter.

Perhaps it was no coincidence that he showed such improvement when he also got more minutes and consistent minutes at that.

Mike Miller (6'8"), Jamario Moon (6'8"), Dorell Wright (6'9").. Just a quick couple of names that guarded Travis Outlaw throughout the games against Memphis, Toronto, and Miami.. All of those guys are the SFs for their teams. Outlaw did just fine against each one of them. Outlaw has improved by leaps and bounds and would be just fine in either position that he played, but Just my opinion I guess

[Wizenheimer]

I
I don't buy the "Outlaw shoots the three at a higher percentage than Webster" argument some of you are making. Outlaw shoots a higher percentage but Martell has shot almost FOUR times as many. Maybe Outlaw is adding that shot to his repertoire, but he is NOT a shooter. Martell on the other hand is.

I guess we have different definitions of "shooter"

Martell has a career shooting percentage of .402. That is not good at all. Outlaw's, is .450.

I guess you could say Martell is a shooter, he just isn't a maker

in any event, I wouldn't look for martell to elevate his percentage a lot in the future. He has fine form but that hasn't translated to fine and consistent results.

The other thing to consider is the composition of our team this year compared to next year. Oden is going to be in the post and that will certainly make our game focus a lot more on the strengths of players like Martell and James Jones who are good shooters.

The second unit will also feature Rudy who is an excellent penetrator and scorer. Perhaps taking over some of the scoring gap if Outlaw is traded? Of course his transition to the NBA game remains to be seen.

I think you've effectively refuted your first point with your second. Portland shouldn't be trading away productive players to make room for Rudy until they know for certain that Rudy can actually be NBA productive himself. And that won't be known for a while.

Looking forward I think Webster's strengths fit this team better. Clearly the question is whether Webster can elevate his game like Outlaw is starting to elevate his. This is a question that doesn't have a crystal clear answer, but Martell has shown enough, in my mind, to warrant saying he can become the player that compliments this team better.

Outlaw certainly complements the team better this year. I disagree that will change dramatically next year. Right now Outlaw is more dependable down the stretch then LMA. He's one of the few blazers that can create his own shot, and that can't be underestimated.

I also am not convinced that outlaw is closer to his ceiling then webster. Maybe but I don't think so.

In any event, unless a dynamite trade comes along, I'd prefer to keep both for the time being. I wouldn't trade outlaw in the proposed Devin Harris trade, and I'd be reluctant to trade webster in it as well. But I'd be more likely to. Maybe Harris just had weak games several of the times I've seen him and I'm under-estimating him though.

[SoHo]

I don't mean to say that Outlaw can't shoot, I mean to say that he prefers to drive and shoot off the dribble. I think Webster is better coming off screens and taking quick shots off the catch. I think Webster has the potential to be an excellent shooter in that sense and he seems to be becoming the better on ball defender.

I agree that Rudy is an unknown in this league, but my point was his game (in Europe from what I've seen) involves a lot of driving and creating his own shot. If he can bring that here it would certainly make up (to an extent) for the loss of Outlaw's ability to do that on the second unit.

In the end I just think there's a reason Webster is in the starting unit and Outlaw comes off the bench. I'd also like to see that backup PF spot with a banging PF who can rebound, but that might change when we have the Oden beast next year.

Either way I think both these positions are easier to fill than starting PG. Maybe we'll get lucky and swing a trade for Bayless in the draft, but even if that's the case we'll likely have to give up Outlaw or Webster. So I wouldn't rule out the Harris trade so quickly.

[Butter]

Man, of Outlaw can start to attack the rim consistently and getting more dunks, it dramatically raises his value, at least to me.

[Wizenheimer]

Man, of Outlaw can start to attack the rim consistently and getting more dunks, it dramatically raises his value, at least to me.

exactly. Some have been saying outlaw is closer to his ceiling then webster, and they may be right.

But I don't think so. Outlaw was so raw when he started and played so little his first 2 seasons, that he's not really that advanced compared to where he could be. I think his potential is a lot more then where he's at right now. Maybe he won't reach it or come close, but if he does, portland could have the best 6th man in the league...if he wasn't a starter.

[Butter]

It is so hard to know which way to go on this question. The problem for me is that Martell never gets a chance to play in the fourth, except against Utah. Maybe if Martell got consistent minutes he could do the same things that Travis does?

[Wizenheimer]

It is so hard to know which way to go on this question. The problem for me is that Martell never gets a chance to play in the fourth, except against Utah. Maybe if Martell got consistent minutes he could do the same things that Travis does?

Or more to the point, he may be able to do the same things that Jones does considering that jones is playing SF.

Actually, since Jones has been tossing bricks in the last half dozen games, I'm sure martell could match that...


For me, the problem with the question may be that it needs to include Jones. I've said before, and I tend to believe, that portland will not be able to keep all three of outlaw-webster-jones. There simply won't be enough minutes. If I would have voted around new year's, I would have said keep outlaw and jones. Now I'm not so sure. I think outlaw and one of the others makes a much more versatile combination then if it was webster and jones. Outlaw can put it on the floor and drive, besides creating his own shot. Jones really can't. But webster has been showing flashes of that as well. So I might be inclined to keep the two that can shoot perimeter, but also slash and drive, even though that may mean sacrificing one of the best 3pt shooters in te league.

[ph1sh55]

martell needs to be a feature of the offense in the first quarter... run him off screens ala reggie. If a team featured him like the sonics "feature" durant I have no doubt he'd be putting up better numbers than KD has. He struggles when he isn't involved in the offensive sets other than "you sit here while we space the floor".

[Dome]

I voted Webster because I feel he's a much better complement to Roy, Aldridge and Oden to build around.

Roy and Oden are likely going to dominate the ball for the Blazers the next decade, with Aldridge needing to get his share of shots from the highpost too. The Blazers just need a good shooter who can defend at the SF spot IMO, which Webster does perfectly. He spreads the floor for Roy and Oden which creates space.

Outlaw is stepping up big this year and obviously he's no joke either, but from what I've seen Travis is more of a "me first" player rather than a team first player. He's come up big in the 4th quarters of games lately, but with Roy being the best decisionmaker on the team that role is already taken care of. Outlaw isn't the outside shooter Webster is and has plenty of trade value with his cheap contract.

That said, if I were in Pritchards shoes this offseason I'd sign Martell to a relatively cheap contract extension if possible now that he hasn't proven enough to get a huge paycheck, and use Outlaw as the mainpiece in trade talks. Portland is going to have to make a quantity-for-quality type trade soon if they want to keep the minutes in check IMO, and a package of Outlaw possibly along with guys like Jack could either help land the Blazers a better point guard and/or help the team get rid of Miles to clear more salary to be able to resign the youngsters to nice contract extensions when they're due.

To me this would be the rotation I'd be looking to build around this summer:

C Greg Oden / Joel Przybilla
PF LaMarcus Aldridge / Channing Frye
SF Martell Webster / James Jones
SG Brandon Roy / Rudy Fernandez
PG ... / Steve Blake / Sergio Rodriguez

I'd shop Outlaw and Jack along with the team's pick to try and land a good PG and would consider forgetting about the 2009 capspace thing. Once Roy, Aldridge, Oden are due for large extensions the payroll is going to get out of hand bigtime if they keep adding high-priced players.

[waverider]

Interesting and good thread - I want to add a discussion with a Phoenix twist.

First: Would you rather have Barbosa or Devin Harris? - how do you compare these guys possible value (who fits better?) to the Blazers.

Second: With Marion possibly leaving PHO by trade or opting out this summer, Outlaw would be an ideal and CHEAP replacement for PHO.

Therefore, if we liked Barbosa would it be reasonable to try to trade Outlaw and some combo like Jack/Frye/Sergio for Barbosa? Probably not Frye because we'd be short upfront.

[Dome]

Interesting and good thread - I want to add a discussion with a Phoenix twist.

First: Would you rather have Barbosa or Devin Harris? - how do you compare these guys possible value (who fits better?) to the Blazers.

Second: With Marion possibly leaving PHO by trade or opting out this summer, Outlaw would be an ideal and CHEAP replacement for PHO.

Therefore, if we liked Barbosa would it be reasonable to try to trade Outlaw and some combo like Jack/Frye/Sergio for Barbosa? Probably not Frye because we'd be short upfront.

Nice call, an Outlaw-Barbosa based trade might make sense for Phoenix too depending how many years they think Nash has got left. Salary wise that sets a good base too.

Of the two, I'd probably prefer Devin Harris myself because I have the feeling he's a better defender than Leandro (maybe I'm wrong), but Leandro would make a pretty good fit next to Roy too. If Dallas ends up getting Kidd without giving up Harris or in a 3-way trade like is being discussed right now obviously getting Harris would make a lot of sense to me.

However, I don't see Marion leave the Suns, and the Suns board seems to share that opinion (link). With Hill, Bell, Marion, Diaw etc on the team I think Leandro is worth more to them as a quality backup to give Nash a breather (he's getting older too) than Outlaw would make. Still an interesting insight though, nice job.

[Butter]

martell needs to be a feature of the offense in the first quarter... run him off screens ala reggie. If a team featured him like the sonics "feature" durant I have no doubt he'd be putting up better numbers than KD has. He struggles when he isn't involved in the offensive sets other than "you sit here while we space the floor".

I think you just hit th enail on the head ph1sh55. I really don't think the gaps in Martell's game are because he lack the ability/potential. I think its the way he's being utilized. Martell has shown that he's a pretty decent rebounder, but recently he never gets rebounds. Watching the game last night, there were several times in the second half when Martell started moving towards the basket, but caught himself, and literally sprinted back to the perimeter. Martell had a couple of really nice drives last night. He shows signs of being a consistent inside scorer, which the Blazers really need.

So instead of forcing Martell to wait on the perimeter, make him crash the boards (helps rebounding), let him attack the rim more (points in the paint).

[mojomarc]

I'd like to see Martell featured more in the first, Butter, but I am not quite convinced he's ready to carry that burden yet. I think, though, that with his progression this year that we have to seriously look at that option for next year. The guy seems to add a new wrinkle to his game every week, and I'd really like to see him utilized more, particularly since Roy seems to like to get his teammates into the game in the first quarter more than take the shots himself.

[Napoleon7]

I voted for Outlaw.

I think both have a very similar ceiling.

I think as an organization you need to make a decision based on what is being offered up. If Outlaw gets you more in return then you have to consider.