Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Wizenheimer]

I thought I would update Portland's salary cap, payroll, and cap-hold situation this summer. It's entirely possible I'm not accurate on all assumptions.

news on Allen Crabbe: Crabbe now meets the "Starter Criteria" provision of the CBA (+2000 minutes). That means his cap-hold jumps to $2,725,003

And, since Meyers Leonard did not meet Starter Criteria, his qualifying offer drops to $4,045,894. However, his cap-hold doesn't change

finally, on the waived Anderson Varajao: contrary to reports, Varajao's 'stretched' salary charges are over a 3 year stretch, not a 5 year stretch. He only has 1 guaranteed season left after this one, and that is the stretched portion of his contract. $9,361,446 prorated equally over 3 years is $3,120,482

so then:

Damian Lillard $21,000,000 (estimate)
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,500,000
Ed Davis $7,000,000
Noah Vonleh $2,751,360
C.J. McCollum $3,219,579
Mason Plumlee $2,328,530
Pat Connaughton $874,636
Anderson Varejao $3,120,482 (stretch)

Cliff Alexander $874,636 (non-guaranteed)
Luis Montero $874,636 (non-guaranteed)

Chris Kaman $6,520,800 (cap-hold)
Brian Roberts $3,711,422 (cap-hold)
Maurice Harkless $7,235,148 (cap-hold)
Meyers Leonard $7,689,700 (cap-hold)
Gerald Henderson $9,000,000 (cap-hold)
Allen Crabbe $2,725,003 (cap-hold)

on Lillard: I read that the 21 million estimate was made based upon an 89 million salary cap. Subsequently, the NBA has told teams to expect the cap to come in around 92 million...which would increase Lillard's salary. This amount is also based upon the assumption he'd receive the standard rookie max extension. If he's named to at least the 3rd team all-NBA, he'd get a sizable increase over the 21 million first year salary, probably close to 25 million

anyway, assuming the 92 million cap, the maximum amount of cap-space Portland could have would be just the guaranteed 7 salaries in the top list plus Varajao. That also add 5 roster charges (for less then 12 players) of $543,471; that would add $2,717,355. That would put Portland at 50.5 million, leaving 41.5 million in cap-space

Portland only gains about 600K in space by waiving Alexander and Montero (2 less roster charges) so keeping them bumps the Blazers to 51 million in salary charges and 41 million in cap-space.

then there are the cap-holds:

Roberts and Kaman are easy calls, even though it's possible the Blazers might re-sign either or both. They can be renounced immediately if Portland needs the space, but still re-signed for minimum deals

the easy choices are done leaving decisions on Harkless, Leonard, Henderson, and Crabbe. The four players represent 26.7 million in cap-holds bumping Blazer total salary charges to 78 million, only leaving 14 million in cap-space.

I think most of us would like to see Portland at least take a run at one of the high caliber free agents like Durant, Horford, Whiteside, or Parsons. Portland could clear that space by renouncing Meyers and Henderson

Since the cap-holds are similar to what Harkless, Henderson, and Meyers will get in salary (Henderson won't get 9), there probably isn't a benefit in terms of cap-space in getting them signed early

Crabbe's cap-hold is definitely the potential monkey-wrench in any cap-space plans the Blazers might have. If some team agree to give him a substantial offer sheet during the free-for-all moratorium, then the Blazers only have a 72 hour window to get their situation lined up. That's probably all the time they'll have anyway

Now, I have no clue what kind of impact of 15-20 teams having substantial cap-space and a much shortened 5 day moratorium will have on free agency. In past years, most transactions have been completed before the moratorium ends, and the 1st official day of the off-season takes care of most of the free agent business and almost all of the coveted free agents sign then. But with 3 or 4 times the number of teams being bidders on a normal number of free agents, there could be a lot of unfinished business when the moratorium ends

and of course, if Lebron or Durant want to play Macbeth and take time to decide where they go, there could be a lot of dominoes falling a lot later then usual

[zzaj]

I'm starting to believe in the "bake the cake" mindset...at this stage there are so many directions that the team can go I just have to trust Olshey. I am of the camp that believes last year's Blazers weren't ultimately going to win anything, and that there was limited ability to gain assets for those who walked. He put together a cheap, overachieving team that plays together and is pretty fun to watch. So much of the NBA is how players "fit" and I think we're seeing a lot of that with this current PDX team.

I think many teams are going to vastly over pay for marginal talent this offseason. It could be an advantage to wait it out and see where everything falls. I don't see Whiteside, Horford, Lebron or Durant coming to Portland. Barnes still has huge question marks that make me think he's basically Martell Webster. Ezeli has similar question marks...he may be about the same player as Plumlee but with blocks instead of passing and ballhandling, and he has an injury history. Parsons can't seem to stay healthy. The only player I could see being a good, possibly realistic addition is Derozan...but the Blazers would be taking a step back in assets to bring him here.

I think another year of cap flexibility could be beneficial. Let all of the FA's walk if a bidding war begins. I'd try to bring Henderson back. Sign a 3rd PG. Buy a late first/early second rounder. See how Vonleh/Harkless/Aminu/Plumlee/CJ continue to develop.

This could also be the perfect storm for a Treadmill. CJ is going to get paid a lot of money after next year which will really change Portland's financial future.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm starting to believe in the "bake the cake" mindset...at this stage there are so many directions that the team can go I just have to trust Olshey. I am of the camp that believes last year's Blazers weren't ultimately going to win anything, and that there was limited ability to gain assets for those who walked. He put together a cheap, overachieving team that plays together and is pretty fun to watch. So much of the NBA is how players "fit" and I think we're seeing a lot of that with this current PDX team.

I think many teams are going to vastly over pay for marginal talent this offseason. It could be an advantage to wait it out and see where everything falls. I don't see Whiteside, Horford, Lebron or Durant coming to Portland. Barnes still has huge question marks that make me think he's basically Martell Webster. Ezeli has similar question marks...he may be about the same player as Plumlee but with blocks instead of passing and ballhandling, and he has an injury history. Parsons can't seem to stay healthy. The only player I could see being a good, possibly realistic addition is Derozan...but the Blazers would be taking a step back in assets to bring him here.

I think another year of cap flexibility could be beneficial. Let all of the FA's walk if a bidding war begins. I'd try to bring Henderson back. Sign a 3rd PG. Buy a late first/early second rounder. See how Vonleh/Harkless/Aminu/Plumlee/CJ continue to develop.

This could also be the perfect storm for a Treadmill. CJ is going to get paid a lot of money after next year which will really change Portland's financial future.

first off, I don't see why signing Derozan would have Portland taking a "step back in assets". Portland could have around 22 million in cap-space by simply renouncing Meyers. That's not much of a step back. Derozan is probably a pipe-dream anyway. Toronto wants to keep him and I seriously doubt Olshey would bring in a SG who could replace CJ in the starting spot. If Olshey aims high, I'd think he'd more likely make a run at Horford or Whiteside

I agree it will be a crazy off-season, but I don't think the bake-a-cake plan works. This summer is the last time Portland is likely to have cap-space for quite a while. Portland would still have Lillard, Aminu, and Davis; most likely Vonleh and probably Harkless and one of Crabbe/Henderson. That's going to probably be 70-75 million in salary right there. And of course, CJ and Plumlee would very likely be Blazers and on the first years of their new contracts....no cap-space

Portland's timing always seems to be rotten, but that's the way it goes. Baking a cake really tends to lock in the current roster, and that's a team that won't organically grow into a contender, IMO.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Wiz, thanks for the numbers and the analysis.


Honestly I am starting to warm to the idea of Ryan Anderson. He just seems like the most realistic option and would be a picture perfect fit in Stotts offense. Being that he is from the west coast kind of helps, may have him consider Portland more than some other free agent bigs we discuss. I'm not thrilled about spending the max on him, but that is what it would take. Leaving no role on the roster for Leonard would be icing on the cake though.


Another free agent I think would be a good fit is Evan Turner, who would give us a big playmaker to free up our back-court for more scoring. Turner has a similar usage to Plumlee, so I think he could take over that de facto 3rd playmaker role. It would be adding to an already somewhat crowded roster but his skillset would be pretty unique. Plus, seeing what Stotts has done for Aminu's 3 point shooting, I wonder if his system could have a similar effect on Turner.

[Downtown]

Wiz, thanks for the numbers and the analysis.


Honestly I am starting to warm to the idea of Ryan Anderson. He just seems like the most realistic option and would be a picture perfect fit in Stotts offense. Being that he is from the west coast kind of helps, may have him consider Portland more than some other free agent bigs we discuss. I'm not thrilled about spending the max on him, but that is what it would take. Leaving no role on the roster for Leonard would be icing on the cake though.


Another free agent I think would be a good fit is Evan Turner, who would give us a big playmaker to free up our back-court for more scoring. Turner has a similar usage to Plumlee, so I think he could take over that de facto 3rd playmaker role. It would be adding to an already somewhat crowded roster but his skillset would be pretty unique. Plus, seeing what Stotts has done for Aminu's 3 point shooting, I wonder if his system could have a similar effect on Turner.

You've been reading my mind and I like your thoughts on both of these guys. I've felt that as far as reasonable free agents that Olshey could possibly get, Anderson is the best of the bunch. He fits a position, and his skill set fits the system. I won't go on about it but I feel that he could be a really good addition although I have no clue as to what kind of contract he'll eventually get.

Evan Turner could fit the same mindset for Olshey that Aminu, Davis, and Henderson did last year. He is a pretty reliable two way player that doesn't do any one thing outstanding but can do quite a number of good things on both ends of the floor and appears to be a team first type of player.

I think you've nailed it on both of these guys being both solid, if unspectacular additions as well as being realistic in Portland's attempt to land them. The only thing to consider, although it can be said about most free agents coming to Portland next summer is how do they dovetail in with the current roster and potentially returning free agents? Only Olshey knows which of the free agent Blazers he wants to re-sign and which ones he's going to let go to other teams in the pursuit of trying to upgrade.

[Norm2953]

I do think Portland's #1 need is another big to complement what Plumlee brings.

I love what Ed Davis brings to the table but he's getting over matched when he plays center
and is limited offensively so that coach Stotts is reluctant to play him and Plumlee together.
We need a big, physical presence similar to what JP gave us for 7 years which is not
necessarily a starter but a guy who provide us toughness for its likely we'll be overpowered
by our first round opponent.

[zzaj]

I'm starting to believe in the "bake the cake" mindset...at this stage there are so many directions that the team can go I just have to trust Olshey. I am of the camp that believes last year's Blazers weren't ultimately going to win anything, and that there was limited ability to gain assets for those who walked. He put together a cheap, overachieving team that plays together and is pretty fun to watch. So much of the NBA is how players "fit" and I think we're seeing a lot of that with this current PDX team.

I think many teams are going to vastly over pay for marginal talent this offseason. It could be an advantage to wait it out and see where everything falls. I don't see Whiteside, Horford, Lebron or Durant coming to Portland. Barnes still has huge question marks that make me think he's basically Martell Webster. Ezeli has similar question marks...he may be about the same player as Plumlee but with blocks instead of passing and ballhandling, and he has an injury history. Parsons can't seem to stay healthy. The only player I could see being a good, possibly realistic addition is Derozan...but the Blazers would be taking a step back in assets to bring him here.

I think another year of cap flexibility could be beneficial. Let all of the FA's walk if a bidding war begins. I'd try to bring Henderson back. Sign a 3rd PG. Buy a late first/early second rounder. See how Vonleh/Harkless/Aminu/Plumlee/CJ continue to develop.

This could also be the perfect storm for a Treadmill. CJ is going to get paid a lot of money after next year which will really change Portland's financial future.

first off, I don't see why signing Derozan would have Portland taking a "step back in assets". Portland could have around 22 million in cap-space by simply renouncing Meyers. That's not much of a step back. Derozan is probably a pipe-dream anyway. Toronto wants to keep him and I seriously doubt Olshey would bring in a SG who could replace CJ in the starting spot. If Olshey aims high, I'd think he'd more likely make a run at Horford or Whiteside

I agree it will be a crazy off-season, but I don't think the bake-a-cake plan works. This summer is the last time Portland is likely to have cap-space for quite a while. Portland would still have Lillard, Aminu, and Davis; most likely Vonleh and probably Harkless and one of Crabbe/Henderson. That's going to probably be 70-75 million in salary right there. And of course, CJ and Plumlee would very likely be Blazers and on the first years of their new contracts....no cap-space

Portland's timing always seems to be rotten, but that's the way it goes. Baking a cake really tends to lock in the current roster, and that's a team that won't organically grow into a contender, IMO.

I had forgotten that Derozan's was a PO or ET for this year. So that "step back in assets" was me thinking of having to trade or sign and trade. I had also forgotten that Plumlee's contract (and also Vonleh's) came up the same time as CJ's...so yeah, you're right, Goodbye capspace after this offseason.

I suppose the real question is: is it better to take a chance and possibly overpay for a player who has question marks? Or is it better to sit back and hope the current Blazer players all develop into a contender? For sure the timing is bad--the one time the Blazers have had capspace in a long time and suddenly the league is awash with money and all the realistic FAs are pretty "meh".

[zzaj]

Wiz, thanks for the numbers and the analysis.


Honestly I am starting to warm to the idea of Ryan Anderson. He just seems like the most realistic option and would be a picture perfect fit in Stotts offense. Being that he is from the west coast kind of helps, may have him consider Portland more than some other free agent bigs we discuss. I'm not thrilled about spending the max on him, but that is what it would take. Leaving no role on the roster for Leonard would be icing on the cake though.


Another free agent I think would be a good fit is Evan Turner, who would give us a big playmaker to free up our back-court for more scoring. Turner has a similar usage to Plumlee, so I think he could take over that de facto 3rd playmaker role. It would be adding to an already somewhat crowded roster but his skillset would be pretty unique. Plus, seeing what Stotts has done for Aminu's 3 point shooting, I wonder if his system could have a similar effect on Turner.

You've been reading my mind and I like your thoughts on both of these guys. I've felt that as far as reasonable free agents that Olshey could possibly get, Anderson is the best of the bunch. He fits a position, and his skill set fits the system. I won't go on about it but I feel that he could be a really good addition although I have no clue as to what kind of contract he'll eventually get.

Evan Turner could fit the same mindset for Olshey that Aminu, Davis, and Henderson did last year. He is a pretty reliable two way player that doesn't do any one thing outstanding but can do quite a number of good things on both ends of the floor and appears to be a team first type of player.

I think you've nailed it on both of these guys being both solid, if unspectacular additions as well as being realistic in Portland's attempt to land them. The only thing to consider, although it can be said about most free agents coming to Portland next summer is how do they dovetail in with the current roster and potentially returning free agents? Only Olshey knows which of the free agent Blazers he wants to re-sign and which ones he's going to let go to other teams in the pursuit of trying to upgrade.

The thing with Anderson though is that he is averaging about 22 missed games a season with injuries. He had one year that he played 81 games and the next was 22. The rest are in the 60-63 range. So, if you lock up Ryan Anderson for big money you have to account for him probably missing a quarter of the season.

Evan Turner is fine as a player (except for his crazy kermit voice). He's better than Henderson or Crabbe, and would provide a little more playmaking than those two, but I wonder if it's enough to make up for the money he'll likely command.

[Wizenheimer]

Honestly I am starting to warm to the idea of Ryan Anderson. He just seems like the most realistic option and would be a picture perfect fit in Stotts offense. Being that he is from the west coast kind of helps, may have him consider Portland more than some other free agent bigs we discuss. I'm not thrilled about spending the max on him, but that is what it would take. Leaving no role on the roster for Leonard would be icing on the cake though.

stretch-4's seem to have bigger and bigger roles as the NBA evolves, there's no doubt about that

I was a lot warmer to the idea of Anderson two or three months ago then I am now. That was before the Aminu-Harkless forward combination started to click, and it was based upon my memory of Anderson's best season. But looking a little closer at Anderson has cooled me off quite a bit

to start with, he's had trouble the last 3 seasons staying healthy. He's missed 97 games in the last 3 years. In fact, only once in his 8 years has he played more then 66 games

and in his 3 latest seasons, his rebounding rate has fallen dramatically to around 10.5%. That's not impressive. Further, his strength, 3 point shooting, has dropped off; he's only shot 35.3% on three's over the last 2 seasons. Now maybe, in the Blazer system he'd up that but it is a concern

you mentioned the icing of finding a stretch-4 to replace Meyers. The first thing I'd say about that is yes please. The second thing I'd say is I thought about that icing a while back and looked around at UFA stretch-4's this summer. There are going to be a lot of them. And when I looked at them, I landed on a different name; a player likely to be much cheaper then Anderson. I remember doing a comparison of 6 stretch-4's including Aminu...I'll do it again:

http://bkref.com/tiny/iTaOA

Marvin Williams is the best 3 point shooter and rebounder of that group. He's alson known as a solid defender and his defensive numbers seem to confirm that. Now, while that 40% three point mark is impressive this year, it was also a career mark so you'd have to anticipate he'd slide back to his toward his 35-36% norm.

I'm not sure if that comparison is a little unfair to Aminu or not. He's probably the only one of those guys that has spent any time playing SF, and he's played a lot of that. But he does seem to perform a bit better at PF then SF. That versatility is valuable to. I'm betting that Aminu is the only one of those guys who good to a good job of defending Lebron or Paul George

I think you're probably right that Anderson is going to get a huge deal. I have a hard time seeing him be worth that to Portland, not when there are other stretch-4's that will likely sign for considerably less

Another free agent I think would be a good fit is Evan Turner, who would give us a big playmaker to free up our back-court for more scoring. Turner has a similar usage to Plumlee, so I think he could take over that de facto 3rd playmaker role. It would be adding to an already somewhat crowded roster but his skillset would be pretty unique. Plus, seeing what Stotts has done for Aminu's 3 point shooting, I wonder if his system could have a similar effect on Turner.

Turner would be an interesting choice. Yeah, his abysmal three point shooting might be a bad fit in the Stotts offense, but I do think that's too heavily emphasized as a needed skill when a player can do other things

and one thing Turner does real well is act as a play-maker. For a gauge:

assists/36: CJ 4.4....Turner 5.7
turnovers/36: CJ 2.5....Turner 2.7
assist/turnover: CJ 1.72....Turner 2.11
usage: CJ 27.1%....Turner 18.7%

I think Portland really needs another play-maker in the lineup. Somebody who can initiate offense off the dribble. Plumlee is doing a good job for a big man, but that's not enough.

trouble is that''s about the only thing Turner does well offensively. He's not bad at the rim; he gets there at a decent clip and shoots a good percentage; and his FT rate is decent. But none of that is high level. He's well below average in TS% and PER. He's not a bad defender but his individual defensive rating is a little worse then the team rating, and I don't think that's a positive sign

if Portland went after him they would very likely have to cut loose one of Henderson or Crabbe, and even factoring in his play-making, I'm not sure he'd be an overall upgrade over either

most of these names are much like the UFA C's we've been talking about: they are interesting but ultimately, they seem to be lateral moves rather then significant upgrades. The Ryan Anderson of 2013-14 would be a substantial upgrade, but maybe he doesn't exist any more

personally, I'd like Portland to avoid adding any bloated contracts unless the players represent a substantial upgrade. At the same time, this summer is probably the only time Portland has any significant cap-space for the next few year. There might be a 'use-it-or-lose-it' pressure this summer, especially after all they lost without return last summer. Without cap-space, the next best avenue for upgrade is trades, and if the Blazers can add some decent players on discounted deals, they should consider it. Portland should try an make sure every roster slot is a trade asset

[Blazinaway]

Honestly I am starting to warm to the idea of Ryan Anderson. He just seems like the most realistic option and would be a picture perfect fit in Stotts offense. Being that he is from the west coast kind of helps, may have him consider Portland more than some other free agent bigs we discuss. I'm not thrilled about spending the max on him, but that is what it would take. Leaving no role on the roster for Leonard would be icing on the cake though.

stretch-4's seem to have bigger and bigger roles as the NBA evolves, there's no doubt about that

I was a lot warmer to the idea of Anderson two or three months ago then I am now. That was before the Aminu-Harkless forward combination started to click, and it was based upon my memory of Anderson's best season. But looking a little closer at Anderson has cooled me off quite a bit

to start with, he's had trouble the last 3 seasons staying healthy. He's missed 97 games in the last 3 years. In fact, only once in his 8 years has he played more then 66 games

and in his 3 latest seasons, his rebounding rate has fallen dramatically to around 10.5%. That's not impressive. Further, his strength, 3 point shooting, has dropped off; he's only shot 35.3% on three's over the last 2 seasons. Now maybe, in the Blazer system he'd up that but it is a concern

you mentioned the icing of finding a stretch-4 to replace Meyers. The first thing I'd say about that is yes please. The second thing I'd say is I thought about that icing a while back and looked around at UFA stretch-4's this summer. There are going to be a lot of them. And when I looked at them, I landed on a different name; a player likely to be much cheaper then Anderson. I remember doing a comparison of 6 stretch-4's including Aminu...I'll do it again:

http://bkref.com/tiny/iTaOA

Marvin Williams is the best 3 point shooter and rebounder of that group. He's alson known as a solid defender and his defensive numbers seem to confirm that. Now, while that 40% three point mark is impressive this year, it was also a career mark so you'd have to anticipate he'd slide back to his toward his 35-36% norm.

I'm not sure if that comparison is a little unfair to Aminu or not. He's probably the only one of those guys that has spent any time playing SF, and he's played a lot of that. But he does seem to perform a bit better at PF then SF. That versatility is valuable to. I'm betting that Aminu is the only one of those guys who good to a good job of defending Lebron or Paul George

I think you're probably right that Anderson is going to get a huge deal. I have a hard time seeing him be worth that to Portland, not when there are other stretch-4's that will likely sign for considerably less

Another free agent I think would be a good fit is Evan Turner, who would give us a big playmaker to free up our back-court for more scoring. Turner has a similar usage to Plumlee, so I think he could take over that de facto 3rd playmaker role. It would be adding to an already somewhat crowded roster but his skillset would be pretty unique. Plus, seeing what Stotts has done for Aminu's 3 point shooting, I wonder if his system could have a similar effect on Turner.

Turner would be an interesting choice. Yeah, his abysmal three point shooting might be a bad fit in the Stotts offense, but I do think that's too heavily emphasized as a needed skill when a player can do other things

and one thing Turner does real well is act as a play-maker. For a gauge:

assists/36: CJ 4.4....Turner 5.7
turnovers/36: CJ 2.5....Turner 2.7
assist/turnover: CJ 1.72....Turner 2.11
usage: CJ 27.1%....Turner 18.7%

I think Portland really needs another play-maker in the lineup. Somebody who can initiate offense off the dribble. Plumlee is doing a good job for a big man, but that's not enough.

trouble is that''s about the only thing Turner does well offensively. He's not bad at the rim; he gets there at a decent clip and shoots a good percentage; and his FT rate is decent. But none of that is high level. He's well below average in TS% and PER. He's not a bad defender but his individual defensive rating is a little worse then the team rating, and I don't think that's a positive sign

if Portland went after him they would very likely have to cut loose one of Henderson or Crabbe, and even factoring in his play-making, I'm not sure he'd be an overall upgrade over either

most of these names are much like the UFA C's we've been talking about: they are interesting but ultimately, they seem to be lateral moves rather then significant upgrades. The Ryan Anderson of 2013-14 would be a substantial upgrade, but maybe he doesn't exist any more

personally, I'd like Portland to avoid adding any bloated contracts unless the players represent a substantial upgrade. At the same time, this summer is probably the only time Portland has any significant cap-space for the next few year. There might be a 'use-it-or-lose-it' pressure this summer, especially after all they lost without return last summer. Without cap-space, the next best avenue for upgrade is trades, and if the Blazers can add some decent players on discounted deals, they should consider it. Portland should try an make sure every roster slot is a trade asset

Thanks for the good analysis, one thing about the crazy cap - isn't it going to be even more crazy in the summer of 2017 as I think I have seen cap expectations of near 109 mil from this summers 92. I keep thinking CJ's next contract will be based on 2017 - is that correct? If so, with his max perhaps HUGE, I have to say I can make a rationale for trading him for either a young guy like Okafor only one year into a rookie contract, or other talent/needs on more reasonable contracts.

[Wizenheimer]

I had forgotten that Derozan's was a PO or ET for this year. So that "step back in assets" was me thinking of having to trade or sign and trade. I had also forgotten that Plumlee's contract (and also Vonleh's) came up the same time as CJ's...so yeah, you're right, Goodbye capspace after this offseason.

that's basically why I've been saying Portland really needs to get some work done this summer. They made roster additions last summer that took away their opportunity for a good draft pick, so they need to follow those up logically by either strengthening the roster or adding adding trade assets

I suppose the real question is: is it better to take a chance and possibly overpay for a player who has question marks? Or is it better to sit back and hope the current Blazer players all develop into a contender?

you may not share this view but I think organic growth of this roster will only take Portland so far, and that sure isn't to contender status. Lillard and CJ will get a little better; players like them usually do. But it will probably be incremental improvements, they are in their mid-twenties already. Plumlee is actually older then Lillard and Crabbe turns 24 in a month, so, while those two players will likely get a little better, it's also likely to be just incremental improvements for them as well. Aminu, Davis, and Henderson are probably in the realm of what-you-see-is-what-you-get

Vonleh is the only player that offers some hope for major improvement. But judging by his 1st 2 years, it's hard to say if he will and by how much

so yeah, you'd think collectively that the team would get better, but realistically, it sure looks like it will be capped well below being a contender. And something else, remember how so many were expecting the 2013-14 Blazer team to improve on their 54 win season and 1st round win over the Rockets? The expectation was there, especially with an off-season to add to the roster. But some of us were pointing at Portland's lack of any significant injuries that year and what would happen if the injury bug bit. Then Olshey only added Kaman and Blake in the off-season and the wheels came off the cart when Matthews was injured.

well, other then Leonard, this year's team has had pretty incredible luck on the injury front. You can't really count on two years of that, and this team is probably skating on thinner ice then last year's team.

I don't think "sitting back" and watching their cap-space spiral down the drain is a smart plan. Ask Phoenix about that

as far as an overpay, I think Portland will probably have to overpay for any high caliber free agent in order to overcome their free agent history and market disadvantages

For sure the timing is bad--the one time the Blazers have had capspace in a long time and suddenly the league is awash with money and all the realistic FAs are pretty "meh".

well, remember the last time the Blazers "baked the cake"? KP's awesome 2009 cap-space plan. He sold it well but he sold snake oil. First, there was the Darius Miles fiasco cutting the cap-space nearly in half. Then, when that free agent market hit, so many players had picked up options or signed extensions that it left Hedo Turkoglu as then crown jewel of the free agents...yuck. Thankfully, Toronto saved KP's bacon (temporarily) by 'stealing' Hedo.

Don't forget that Olshey had about 28 million in combined cap-space his 1st two seasons, so it hasn't been that long between cap-space off-seasons. What he got for that space was Joel Freeland, Victor Claver, Dorell Wright, Robin Lopez, & TRob. That sure doesn't seem like much of a payoff, especially considering none of them are Blazers any more. That was a result of sitting-back-and-waiting-for-super-bargains before making moves. I think that would be enough to recommend a more aggressive approach this time

[Wizenheimer]

Thanks for the good analysis, one thing about the crazy cap - isn't it going to be even more crazy in the summer of 2017 as I think I have seen cap expectations of near 109 mil from this summers 92. I keep thinking CJ's next contract will be based on 2017 - is that correct? If so, with his max perhaps HUGE, I have to say I can make a rationale for trading him for either a young guy like Okafor only one year into a rookie contract, or other talent/needs on more reasonable contracts.

I'm definitely in a minority on this but I've been pointing at what CJ is going to get and saying it's a major concern. With the cap, CJ's max deal would be somewhere in the 5-year/150million range...30 million a year

Obviously, he probably won't get that, but he is likely to get upwards of 80% of his max, maybe higher (based upon the history of other rookie extensions). Portland could very well be paying 50 million/year for the Lillard/CJ backcourt.

adding to the concern is that quirks in the TV contract has the NBA projecting that the cap will actually fall back down to 100 million in 2018 and then rise slowly. CJ has exquisite timing on his RFA year....Blazers not so much

[Norm2953]

One thing I'd like to know is how NBA teams deal with their free agents like CJ for there
will be a number of players like him who will be line for a massive extension. Guys like
CJ and Derozian might be in line for max contract and its quite possible teams like
Portland will opt to move them (ala Batum) to avoid paying a max contract for guys
who are not all-star caliber players.

[TBpup]

In a year when so many teams will have a TON of salary cap room, I worry that Portland will have to pay almost max money to a player who isn't near max player production. Does NeO go the 'bargain role player' route like with Davis/Aminu or does he shoot for something higher on the impact scale?

DeRozan - big time ties with Dame and Ed Davis and a West Coast guy but is that enough to get him to take 4 years instead of 5?
Anderson - agree about him being a solid 'stretch-4'. If Harkless would shoot and handle a little better, what a weapon he'd be.
Turner - nice 3rd playmaker but no real room for Crabbe or Henderson then.
Whiteside - mystery $$ because will someone give him max for being a one-year wonder off the bench?

Long term I'm still not sure about the cost of Dame/CJ versus the defensive liability they are almost every night as a combo. Great scoring and ability to stretch the floor but they HAVE to score a lot due to how much they give up on some nights.

It will be interesting to see if a big man that can either really score or play defense will get added to ad some balance.

[Blazer50]

DeRozan and move CJ for Philly Center (Noel or probably Okafor)?
Tough call, but would improve the team - at least adds a 3rd Major asset.
(Retain Meyers and let Kaman walk)

[tester551]

The thing with Anderson though is that he is averaging about 22 missed games a season with injuries. He had one year that he played 81 games and the next was 22. The rest are in the 60-63 range. So, if you lock up Ryan Anderson for big money you have to account for him probably missing a quarter of the season.

Evan Turner is fine as a player (except for his crazy kermit voice). He's better than Henderson or Crabbe, and would provide a little more playmaking than those two, but I wonder if it's enough to make up for the money he'll likely command.

I actually think he will make LESS than either Henderson or Crabbe. Turner would be a great player to target. Underrated defensively. My only concern with him would be the locker room dynamics.

[Downtown]

I actually think he will make LESS than either Henderson or Crabbe. Turner would be a great player to target. Underrated defensively. My only concern with him would be the locker room dynamics.

I've said that I think Turner fits the same mold from last year with the signings of Davis and Aminu and the trade for Henderson. Turner could be a nice fit with this team.

But I also think that he wouldn't be a target if Olshey is determined, and able to re-sign our own free agents. The locker room dynamics you mention is exactly why. But if Olshey does see either Crabbe or Henderson getting overvalued contracts I could definitely see him taking a hard look at Turner, depending on what the cost is of course.

It could very well be an economic decision, even with all the cap space. Even the lesser contracts have a ripple effect in the large picture.

[zzaj]

DeRozan and move CJ for Philly Center (Noel or probably Okafor)?
Tough call, but would improve the team - at least adds a 3rd Major asset.
(Retain Meyers and let Kaman walk)

If the Blazers ended up with:

Lillard
Derozan
Aminu
Okafor
Plumlee

I think we'd have to be pretty damn ecstatic as Blazer fans, at least on paper.

[zzaj]

The thing with Anderson though is that he is averaging about 22 missed games a season with injuries. He had one year that he played 81 games and the next was 22. The rest are in the 60-63 range. So, if you lock up Ryan Anderson for big money you have to account for him probably missing a quarter of the season.

Evan Turner is fine as a player (except for his crazy kermit voice). He's better than Henderson or Crabbe, and would provide a little more playmaking than those two, but I wonder if it's enough to make up for the money he'll likely command.

I actually think he will make LESS than either Henderson or Crabbe. Turner would be a great player to target. Underrated defensively. My only concern with him would be the locker room dynamics.

Yeah, I worded that poorly. What I was trying to say is that IMO he'll make about the same money as Crabbe or Henderson (all three of them are going to fetch more than they are worth), so it'd basically be a lateral move from one of those players and we know both of them already fit in the locker room.

[cucad8]

I thought I would update Portland's salary cap, payroll, and cap-hold situation this summer. It's entirely possible I'm not accurate on all assumptions.

news on Allen Crabbe: Crabbe now meets the "Starter Criteria" provision of the CBA (+2000 minutes). That means his cap-hold jumps to $2,725,003

And, since Meyers Leonard did not meet Starter Criteria, his qualifying offer drops to $4,045,894. However, his cap-hold doesn't change

finally, on the waived Anderson Varajao: contrary to reports, Varajao's 'stretched' salary charges are over a 3 year stretch, not a 5 year stretch. He only has 1 guaranteed season left after this one, and that is the stretched portion of his contract. $9,361,446 prorated equally over 3 years is $3,120,482

so then:

Damian Lillard $21,000,000 (estimate)
Al-Farouq Aminu $7,500,000
Ed Davis $7,000,000
Noah Vonleh $2,751,360
C.J. McCollum $3,219,579
Mason Plumlee $2,328,530
Pat Connaughton $874,636
Anderson Varejao $3,120,482 (stretch)

Cliff Alexander $874,636 (non-guaranteed)
Luis Montero $874,636 (non-guaranteed)

Chris Kaman $6,520,800 (cap-hold)
Brian Roberts $3,711,422 (cap-hold)
Maurice Harkless $7,235,148 (cap-hold)
Meyers Leonard $7,689,700 (cap-hold)
Gerald Henderson $9,000,000 (cap-hold)
Allen Crabbe $2,725,003 (cap-hold)

on Lillard: I read that the 21 million estimate was made based upon an 89 million salary cap. Subsequently, the NBA has told teams to expect the cap to come in around 92 million...which would increase Lillard's salary. This amount is also based upon the assumption he'd receive the standard rookie max extension. If he's named to at least the 3rd team all-NBA, he'd get a sizable increase over the 21 million first year salary, probably close to 25 million

anyway, assuming the 92 million cap, the maximum amount of cap-space Portland could have would be just the guaranteed 7 salaries in the top list plus Varajao. That also add 5 roster charges (for less then 12 players) of $543,471; that would add $2,717,355. That would put Portland at 50.5 million, leaving 41.5 million in cap-space

Portland only gains about 600K in space by waiving Alexander and Montero (2 less roster charges) so keeping them bumps the Blazers to 51 million in salary charges and 41 million in cap-space.

then there are the cap-holds:

Roberts and Kaman are easy calls, even though it's possible the Blazers might re-sign either or both. They can be renounced immediately if Portland needs the space, but still re-signed for minimum deals

the easy choices are done leaving decisions on Harkless, Leonard, Henderson, and Crabbe. The four players represent 26.7 million in cap-holds bumping Blazer total salary charges to 78 million, only leaving 14 million in cap-space.

I think most of us would like to see Portland at least take a run at one of the high caliber free agents like Durant, Horford, Whiteside, or Parsons. Portland could clear that space by renouncing Meyers and Henderson

Since the cap-holds are similar to what Harkless, Henderson, and Meyers will get in salary (Henderson won't get 9), there probably isn't a benefit in terms of cap-space in getting them signed early

Crabbe's cap-hold is definitely the potential monkey-wrench in any cap-space plans the Blazers might have. If some team agree to give him a substantial offer sheet during the free-for-all moratorium, then the Blazers only have a 72 hour window to get their situation lined up. That's probably all the time they'll have anyway

Now, I have no clue what kind of impact of 15-20 teams having substantial cap-space and a much shortened 5 day moratori

um will have on free agency. In past years, most transactions have been completed before the moratorium ends, and the 1st official day of the off-season takes care of most of the free agent business and almost all of the coveted free agents sign then. But with 3 or 4 times the number of teams being bidders on a normal number of free agents, there could be a lot of unfinished business when the moratorium ends

and of course, if Lebron or Durant want to play Macbeth and take time to decide where they go, there could be a lot of dominoes falling a lot later then usual

Thanks for the work. Just a quick note, varejao would stretch over 5. " All seasons remaining on a contract are considered "remaining seasons" for the purpose of the stretch provision except seasons following a team option. For example, the Clippers waived and stretched Miroslav Raduljica in 2014 with two seasons remaining on his contract, one fully guaranteed and the other non-guaranteed. Both seasons counted in his stretch calculation, so his remaining guaranteed salary was stretched over five seasons."