Here is a piece by the Athletic on the teams in the WC, they have POR at #14 (31-51)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6688359/2025/10/10/nba-predictions-2025-2026-western-conference-suns-mavericks-grizzlies/Portland had a strong second half last season and finished with 36 wins, nearly scratching its way into the Play-In Tournament in the final weeks. But the Blazers seem to be a likely regression candidate on multiple fronts. For starters, the underlying data from a year ago suggests the Blazers weren’t quite as good as their record, with a minus-3.0 per game scoring margin.
and they didn't really address their offense either....
The Blazers have youth on their side but a glaring lack of offensive talent. Arguably, their two best offensive players from a year ago, Anfernee Simons and Deandre Ayton, are gone. Ayton was bought out to make room for Portland’s other young bigs (and to remove a guy the Blazers didn’t want around any longer), while they made a bizarre trade of Simons for 34-year-old Jrue Holiday, who has a cap-clogging deal that pays him $105 million over the next three seasons. It felt like a ‘win-now” move, except the Blazers aren’t anywhere near being ready to win now.
It remains to be seen how this team will score. Minus Simons and Ayton, the Blazers seem like a near-guarantee for a bottom-five offense, with Deni Avdija (who was genuinely good last season and should have received far more attention for it) the closest thing they have to a go-to guy. Blind faith in the idea that Scoot Henderson can be a plus-starter at point guard is probably the only other reason for optimism here, but he will miss the start of the season repairing a torn hamstring, and the point guard spot is a glaring hole in his absence.
Feels like this has been stated before....
The Blazers will guard you, though, and clearly intend to make this their identity. Wing stopper Toumani Camara is an absolute beast who probably should have made the All-Defense First Team last season, Holiday still has his chops on that end, and the Blazers welcome back “stocks” (steals + blocks) deity Matisse Thybulle after an injury-wracked 2024-25.
Second-year pro Donovan Clingan is limited offensively but protects the rim and cleans up the glass, while Robert “If Healthy” Williams adds another shot blocker. Even the fringe guys add value; newly acquired Blake Wesley can slide his feet with anyone, and third-year pro Rayan Rupert looked like he might be turning the corner in summer league.
Alas, the Blazers seem not quite built for the future but also not for the present. They missed their moment to trade Jerami Grant, who still has three years and $102 million left on a contract nobody wants, and jumped right back in the same boat with Holiday. Damian Lillard, back for the vibes, adds another $14 million cap hit while taking the year off to recuperate from a torn Achilles.
If the Blazers won’t be good, I still expect them to be interesting. Can Shaedon Sharpe develop into a starting-caliber wing in his walk year? Was rookie center Yang Hansen a draft-night reach or a brilliant scouting find? Can young guards such as Henderson and Wesley find their footing? Will Clingan ever score on a post-up?
All of that is a bit more interesting set next to the transition to new ownership in Portland, with Tom Dundon agreeing to buy the team after a multi-year organizational malaise following the death of Paul Allen. Will new ownership be satisfied to keep things rolling with the duo of GM Joe Cronin and coach Chauncey Billups, both of whom were extended at the end of last season? More broadly, what team-building strategies will Dundon and company embrace?
Dundon might not get to play with his new toy until after the trade deadline, but the Blazers have some interesting pathways. They can get near max cap room next summer if they don’t extend Sharpe, plus they own three unprotected firsts from other teams and likely will have another high pick in a strong 2026 draft. For the moment, however, they’re caught between a win-now team and a win-later one, without having a particularly strong case for being either.
That last sentence is the one that stings, doomed to mediocrity. The exact place no team with title aspirations wants to be, and they CHOSE this path.
I know some fans are excited about Jrue's impact, but he regressed across the board LY, especially on offense. Multiple metrics at\close to career lows.
Grant seems poised to repeat his steep decline (he can't get worse, right?) and I don't see that changing with Deni\Sharpe and.... ???? as the primary offensive engines of this team, his usage and the resulting "stat padding" will continue to take a hit.
Clingan is great on defense but the offense will be slow to come (if at all) and may never come to fruition, which, though not ideal would be ok, Gobert has made quite a career out of being a defensive savant and DC IMO is on the path to that level.
I do not see the "Camara is the next Butler" vibes that some are touting, he has not shown an ounce of that offensive creativity in any way, As a cutter? Straight line drives? 3-ball? Yeah, he has those skills and all those could improve by some margin, but I don't see any indication of him having a go to scoring prowess, he has just not shown that on any level to date.
and Sharpe? Well, he has always had the offensive capability, great size, great athleticism, great offensive feel, but he floats, has since he came into the league and his 3pt shot is problematic, well under league average the last 2 seasons and he has shown no indication to stop\curb taking ill advised\lazy 3pt shots when he should be driving to the rim or seeking points in the mid range, where his shooting percentage is VERY good.
61% at the rim (73rd percentile), 47% top of the key (66th percentile) his two most heavy volume shot areas BTW, and yet he averaged more 3pt shots than the year prior and shot worse as a result (31.1 vs 33.3). He is still young (22) so, improvement could (should?) come but the real question with him is behind the ears IMO. Can he play with purpose & focus night in and night out? Is he savvy enough to prioritize his strengths or does he continue to settle for easy\lazy shots? Can he give consistent effort on defense?
Lillard can't and he is a far better offensive talent than Sharpe and despite that has won very little in his career as a result. I cannot imagine a backcourt of two subpar defenders achieving much success, no matter how good their offense.
Lastly, Scoot? Well, we probably won't even see him until end of the year or 2026 at best, so.....
His injury was a bummer, not that I think his offensive game was going to explode, but as a potential catalyst to the offense, I think he would have helped this team. He still might, but it will be truncated and who knows how long it will take him to get up to game shape\speed, so likely another year of development interrupted. Unfortunate, and Dame coming in next year to make another complete mess of the backcourt (to go along with the Grant debacle in the front court).
Could they be better than #14? Sure. There are enough questions about NO, SAC, PHX. I think NO may be better than LY, especially if Zion plays a majority of games. I think SAC does not look like a good team at all, should be worse than #11, but they do have Sabonis\DeRozan\LaVine\Monk and Keegan (eventually), they will win games they shouldn't.
PHX should be right around where POR is, but Booker is better than any player on POR by a longshot, and IMO their younger players could surprise this year. Mark Williams was a good p/u, Brooks is annoying yet underrated and Green (playoff flops notwithstanding) is productive, at least when it comes to the regular season. I think they will be better than people think.
Also, I would not be at all surprised to see their rookies (Maluach\Fleming\Brea) overperform to expectations, just like Dunn & Ighodaro did LY. PHX has a pretty strong record of evaluating talent these last few years, especially relative to where they are picking.
Even if POR posts a better record than those 3 teams + UTA, that puts them at 11th and I don't see them (barring injury) having abetter record than MEM\DAL\GS\SA the next group of teams, and even IF they did, what a waste, lose a play in game or win, lose thier pick and get blasted by OKC or DEN in the 1st round.
