Dame is coming back to Portland!!!

[Wizenheimer]

Yeah, all of this is what I mean by interesting. There are a few ways this can go...

While I am not in favor of a big extension for Sharpe, I have kinda turned against the ploy of playing hardball with RFAs or making them go get their offer sheet, as fans often favor. If you offer a deal out of step with the going rate for like players, or offer no deal at all, the FA isn't going to be pressured into accepting a lousy contract unless that particular FA is especially risk-averse. Instead, you instill bitterness that will be remembered when unrestricted free agency comes around. I mean, it's a play, but it's not how I would choose to do business.

On the other hand, outside of Giddey and maybe Grimes, I can see not being too concerned with the risk of pushing these RFAs out the door...

Every player has a cost/benefit in the negotiations.

IMO, you have to determine what their play is worth & hold to that. IMO, all 4 of these RFA are asking for significantly more than what value they have provided on the court.

Giddey - wants $30M but worth $18-20M
Thomas - wants $25M but worth $16-18M
Kuminga - wants $30M+ but worth $16-18M
Grimes - Not sure what he's asking for, but I think he's worth $22-25M

Look at Jabari Smith's extension... 5-yrs for ~$24M/yr. He's a better player than Giddey, Thomas, or Kuminga IMO.

I think you're estimating low. It's not 2021

And IMO, Giddy is better than Jabari

[zzaj]

While I am not in favor of a big extension for Sharpe, I have kinda turned against the ploy of playing hardball with RFAs or making them go get their offer sheet, as fans often favor. If you offer a deal out of step with the going rate for like players, or offer no deal at all, the FA isn't going to be pressured into accepting a lousy contract unless that particular FA is especially risk-averse. Instead, you instill bitterness that will be remembered when unrestricted free agency comes around. I mean, it's a play, but it's not how I would choose to do business.

On the other hand, outside of Giddey and maybe Grimes, I can see not being too concerned with the risk of pushing these RFAs out the door...

Every player has a cost/benefit in the negotiations.

IMO, you have to determine what their play is worth & hold to that. IMO, all 4 of these RFA are asking for significantly more than what value they have provided on the court.

Giddey - wants $30M but worth $18-20M
Thomas - wants $25M but worth $16-18M
Kuminga - wants $30M+ but worth $16-18M
Grimes - Not sure what he's asking for, but I think he's worth $22-25M

Look at Jabari Smith's extension... 5-yrs for ~$24M/yr. He's a better player than Giddey, Thomas, or Kuminga IMO.

I think you're estimating low. It's not 2021

And IMO, Giddy is better than Jabari

Agreed with Wiz here, Tester...IMO you can add roughly 8-12M to each of those, depending on the player.

I think the Agent pressure is a small something that gets overlooked in these deals, too--if an Agent ends up getting a player signed to a deal that eventually is considered low-value on the players' side, that ain't great for business. IIRC, Sharpe is represented by a smaller agency, too...

I really HOPE that Sharpe ends up with Jabari money. I think that would be workable for Sharpe right now as an extension, and could still work in Portland's favor if he doesn't ever really improve. I would think that 5 guaranteed years and around 120M is still worth something...

[Wizenheimer]

Agreed with Wiz here, Tester...IMO you can add roughly 8-12M to each of those, depending on the player.

I think the Agent pressure is a small something that gets overlooked in these deals, too--if an Agent ends up getting a player signed to a deal that eventually is considered low-value on the players' side, that ain't great for business. IIRC, Sharpe is represented by a smaller agency, too...

I really HOPE that Sharpe ends up with Jabari money. I think that would be workable for Sharpe right now as an extension, and could still work in Portland's favor if he doesn't ever really improve. I would think that 5 guaranteed years and around 120M is still worth something...

yeah

the gauge we have is Simons. He hadn't really shown much at all except he was a good 3 point shooter and absolutely horrible on defense. Yet, Cronin gave him an annual salary that was 20% of the cap at the time; and a base salary that was 18% of the cap

in 2026-27 the cap will be around 166M. If Sharpe gets a contract equivalent to Simons, his base salary would be 30M and his annual would be 33M. Everything I've read says that agents and GM's start negotiating in terms of a percentage of the cap....if the player isn't a candidate for a max deal. Even if Sharpe only gets 15% of the cap as a base salary, that's 25M. On a standard 4 year deal with 8% step raises that's 28M/year. Sharpe's annual salary would be less than 17% of the cap when Simons got over 20% of the cap as an annual from the same GM. If Sharpe gets a contract equivalent to Simons it will be in the 33-34M/year range

I think people really need to update their expectations for contracts

[tester551]

Agreed with Wiz here, Tester...IMO you can add roughly 8-12M to each of those, depending on the player.

I think the Agent pressure is a small something that gets overlooked in these deals, too--if an Agent ends up getting a player signed to a deal that eventually is considered low-value on the players' side, that ain't great for business. IIRC, Sharpe is represented by a smaller agency, too...

I really HOPE that Sharpe ends up with Jabari money. I think that would be workable for Sharpe right now as an extension, and could still work in Portland's favor if he doesn't ever really improve. I would think that 5 guaranteed years and around 120M is still worth something...

yeah

the gauge we have is Simons. He hadn't really shown much at all except he was a good 3 point shooter and absolutely horrible on defense. Yet, Cronin gave him an annual salary that was 20% of the cap at the time; and a base salary that was 18% of the cap

in 2026-27 the cap will be around 166M. If Sharpe gets a contract equivalent to Simons, his base salary would be 30M and his annual would be 33M. Everything I've read says that agents and GM's start negotiating in terms of a percentage of the cap....if the player isn't a candidate for a max deal. Even if Sharpe only gets 15% of the cap as a base salary, that's 25M. On a standard 4 year deal with 8% step raises that's 28M/year. Sharpe's annual salary would be less than 17% of the cap when Simons got over 20% of the cap as an annual from the same GM. If Sharpe gets a contract equivalent to Simons it will be in the 33-34M/year range

I think people really need to update their expectations for contracts

How long did everyone here complain that Simons was overpaid (which he is/was)?
We have Grant's contract that everyone feels like is an albatross... Yet he's a better player than any of these RFA players.

I get your point on negotiating as a percentage of the cap. But even 1% of the cap is $1.5M. Smart teams are adjusting the payroll distribution of their cap - and lowering the amount paid to 'good' but not 'great' players.

[Wizenheimer]

Agreed with Wiz here, Tester...IMO you can add roughly 8-12M to each of those, depending on the player.

I think the Agent pressure is a small something that gets overlooked in these deals, too--if an Agent ends up getting a player signed to a deal that eventually is considered low-value on the players' side, that ain't great for business. IIRC, Sharpe is represented by a smaller agency, too...

I really HOPE that Sharpe ends up with Jabari money. I think that would be workable for Sharpe right now as an extension, and could still work in Portland's favor if he doesn't ever really improve. I would think that 5 guaranteed years and around 120M is still worth something...

yeah

the gauge we have is Simons. He hadn't really shown much at all except he was a good 3 point shooter and absolutely horrible on defense. Yet, Cronin gave him an annual salary that was 20% of the cap at the time; and a base salary that was 18% of the cap

in 2026-27 the cap will be around 166M. If Sharpe gets a contract equivalent to Simons, his base salary would be 30M and his annual would be 33M. Everything I've read says that agents and GM's start negotiating in terms of a percentage of the cap....if the player isn't a candidate for a max deal. Even if Sharpe only gets 15% of the cap as a base salary, that's 25M. On a standard 4 year deal with 8% step raises that's 28M/year. Sharpe's annual salary would be less than 17% of the cap when Simons got over 20% of the cap as an annual from the same GM. If Sharpe gets a contract equivalent to Simons it will be in the 33-34M/year range

I think people really need to update their expectations for contracts

How long did everyone here complain that Simons was overpaid (which he is/was)?
We have Grant's contract that everyone feels like is an albatross... Yet he's a better player than any of these RFA players.

I get your point on negotiating as a percentage of the cap. But even 1% of the cap is $1.5M. Smart teams are adjusting the payroll distribution of their cap - and lowering the amount paid to 'good' but not 'great' players.

I think smart teams are a lot smarter when there are only 1 or 2 or 3 teams that have major cap-space in a summer. That was this summer and it's the big reason why there are impasses for players like Giddey and Kuminga.

but next summer may be a lot different. Right now, more than half of the teams in the league could have 25M in space and a dozen teams could have 40M in space. Obviously, that will change during the course of season, trade deadline, draft, and next year's moratorium. But the leverage "smart" teams have this summer won't be nearly as strong next summer

as for Sharpe, obviously if he plays worse next season he's due for a small payday. But if he plays similar to how he did last season without Simons impeding him he'll have momentum and leverage in his contract negotiations

I mean, look at the current 2nd and 3rd contracts out there:

Immanuel Quickley - 32.5M/year
Jalen Suggs - 30M/year
Derick White - 31M/year
Jalen Johnson - 30M/year
Jarrett Allen - 30M/year
Devin Vassell - 27M/year
Trey Murhy - 29M/year
Jaden McDaniels - 28M/year

and the salary cap will have gone up 20% since those deals were signed. If Sharpe has a decent season, showing improvement, Portland isn't going to get him re-signed at 20-25M/year

[zzaj]

yeah

the gauge we have is Simons. He hadn't really shown much at all except he was a good 3 point shooter and absolutely horrible on defense. Yet, Cronin gave him an annual salary that was 20% of the cap at the time; and a base salary that was 18% of the cap

in 2026-27 the cap will be around 166M. If Sharpe gets a contract equivalent to Simons, his base salary would be 30M and his annual would be 33M. Everything I've read says that agents and GM's start negotiating in terms of a percentage of the cap....if the player isn't a candidate for a max deal. Even if Sharpe only gets 15% of the cap as a base salary, that's 25M. On a standard 4 year deal with 8% step raises that's 28M/year. Sharpe's annual salary would be less than 17% of the cap when Simons got over 20% of the cap as an annual from the same GM. If Sharpe gets a contract equivalent to Simons it will be in the 33-34M/year range

I think people really need to update their expectations for contracts

How long did everyone here complain that Simons was overpaid (which he is/was)?
We have Grant's contract that everyone feels like is an albatross... Yet he's a better player than any of these RFA players.

I get your point on negotiating as a percentage of the cap. But even 1% of the cap is $1.5M. Smart teams are adjusting the payroll distribution of their cap - and lowering the amount paid to 'good' but not 'great' players.

I think smart teams are a lot smarter when there are only 1 or 2 or 3 teams that have major cap-space in a summer. That was this summer and it's the big reason why there are impasses for players like Giddey and Kuminga.

but next summer may be a lot different. Right now, more than half of the teams in the league could have 25M in space and a dozen teams could have 40M in space. Obviously, that will change during the course of season, trade deadline, draft, and next year's moratorium. But the leverage "smart" teams have this summer won't be nearly as strong next summer

as for Sharpe, obviously if he plays worse next season he's due for a small payday. But if he plays similar to how he did last season without Simons impeding him he'll have momentum and leverage in his contract negotiations

I mean, look at the current 2nd and 3rd contracts out there:

Immanuel Quickley - 32.5M/year
Jalen Suggs - 30M/year
Derick White - 31M/year
Jalen Johnson - 30M/year
Jarrett Allen - 30M/year
Devin Vassell - 27M/year
Trey Murhy - 29M/year
Jaden McDaniels - 28M/year

and the salary cap will have gone up 20% since those deals were signed. If Sharpe has a decent season, showing improvement, Portland isn't going to get him re-signed at 20-25M/year

Yeah, this is all fair...5 years 120M probably still has value, but 5 years 150M is likely what his agent will be pushing for.

[PDXKnight]

How long did everyone here complain that Simons was overpaid (which he is/was)?
We have Grant's contract that everyone feels like is an albatross... Yet he's a better player than any of these RFA players.

I get your point on negotiating as a percentage of the cap. But even 1% of the cap is $1.5M. Smart teams are adjusting the payroll distribution of their cap - and lowering the amount paid to 'good' but not 'great' players.

I think smart teams are a lot smarter when there are only 1 or 2 or 3 teams that have major cap-space in a summer. That was this summer and it's the big reason why there are impasses for players like Giddey and Kuminga.

but next summer may be a lot different. Right now, more than half of the teams in the league could have 25M in space and a dozen teams could have 40M in space. Obviously, that will change during the course of season, trade deadline, draft, and next year's moratorium. But the leverage "smart" teams have this summer won't be nearly as strong next summer

as for Sharpe, obviously if he plays worse next season he's due for a small payday. But if he plays similar to how he did last season without Simons impeding him he'll have momentum and leverage in his contract negotiations

I mean, look at the current 2nd and 3rd contracts out there:

Immanuel Quickley - 32.5M/year
Jalen Suggs - 30M/year
Derick White - 31M/year
Jalen Johnson - 30M/year
Jarrett Allen - 30M/year
Devin Vassell - 27M/year
Trey Murhy - 29M/year
Jaden McDaniels - 28M/year

and the salary cap will have gone up 20% since those deals were signed. If Sharpe has a decent season, showing improvement, Portland isn't going to get him re-signed at 20-25M/year

Yeah, this is all fair...5 years 120M probably still has value, but 5 years 150M is likely what his agent will be pushing for.

If we have to have him for that much id hope we could do a 4 year deal instead and also maybe some performance based incentives as well so we arent locked in so bad if he dogs it

[dckingsfan]

I think smart teams are a lot smarter when there are only 1 or 2 or 3 teams that have major cap-space in a summer. That was this summer and it's the big reason why there are impasses for players like Giddey and Kuminga.

but next summer may be a lot different. Right now, more than half of the teams in the league could have 25M in space and a dozen teams could have 40M in space. Obviously, that will change during the course of season, trade deadline, draft, and next year's moratorium. But the leverage "smart" teams have this summer won't be nearly as strong next summer

as for Sharpe, obviously if he plays worse next season he's due for a small payday. But if he plays similar to how he did last season without Simons impeding him he'll have momentum and leverage in his contract negotiations

I mean, look at the current 2nd and 3rd contracts out there:

Immanuel Quickley - 32.5M/year
Jalen Suggs - 30M/year
Derick White - 31M/year
Jalen Johnson - 30M/year
Jarrett Allen - 30M/year
Devin Vassell - 27M/year
Trey Murhy - 29M/year
Jaden McDaniels - 28M/year

and the salary cap will have gone up 20% since those deals were signed. If Sharpe has a decent season, showing improvement, Portland isn't going to get him re-signed at 20-25M/year

Yeah, this is all fair...5 years 120M probably still has value, but 5 years 150M is likely what his agent will be pushing for.

If we have to have him for that much id hope we could do a 4 year deal instead and also maybe some performance based incentives as well so we arent locked in so bad if he dogs it

If he holds out for that much (unless he makes a very big leap), you let him walk.

[PDXKnight]

Yeah, this is all fair...5 years 120M probably still has value, but 5 years 150M is likely what his agent will be pushing for.

If we have to have him for that much id hope we could do a 4 year deal instead and also maybe some performance based incentives as well so we arent locked in so bad if he dogs it

If he holds out for that much (unless he makes a very big leap), you let him walk.

Depends on whats guaranteed. If we could get him for 20 with 10 million more if he makes an all nba team an all star game etc. It'd be much easier to swallow. Id also say if its 120 million with a 4th year club option or at least heavily unguaranteed that final season it becomes a lot less of a poison pill

[dckingsfan]

If we have to have him for that much id hope we could do a 4 year deal instead and also maybe some performance based incentives as well so we arent locked in so bad if he dogs it

If he holds out for that much (unless he makes a very big leap), you let him walk.

Depends on whats guaranteed. If we could get him for 20 with 10 million more if he makes an all nba team an all star game etc. It'd be much easier to swallow. Id also say if its 120 million with a 4th year club option or at least heavily unguaranteed that final season it becomes a lot less of a poison pill

Agreed, the club should come in with its offer and walk otherwise.

[zzaj]

This is why in some ways I think it's actually prudent to allow Sharpe to enter RFA. While there are certainly teams that will have capspace, I don't think Sharpe has shown enough that some team is going to start renouncing players in order to have 25-30M to sign him.

Obviously, if you can get Sharpe on a team-friendly deal that he's happy with? Great. But otherwise...I just have a hard time thinking he's going to be a main priority for a lot of teams as a RFA--although, he would be one of the youngest, so who knows.

[Wizenheimer]

This is why in some ways I think it's actually prudent to allow Sharpe to enter RFA. While there are certainly teams that will have capspace, I don't think Sharpe has shown enough that some team is going to start renouncing players in order to have 25-30M to sign him.

Obviously, if you can get Sharpe on a team-friendly deal that he's happy with? Great. But otherwise...I just have a hard time thinking he's going to be a main priority for a lot of teams as a RFA--although, he would be one of the youngest, so who knows.

what if he averages 23-24 points next season on better efficiency? Without Simons, Deni and Sharpe were a dynamic duo at the end of the season

[zzaj]

This is why in some ways I think it's actually prudent to allow Sharpe to enter RFA. While there are certainly teams that will have capspace, I don't think Sharpe has shown enough that some team is going to start renouncing players in order to have 25-30M to sign him.

Obviously, if you can get Sharpe on a team-friendly deal that he's happy with? Great. But otherwise...I just have a hard time thinking he's going to be a main priority for a lot of teams as a RFA--although, he would be one of the youngest, so who knows.

what if he averages 23-24 points next season on better efficiency? Without Simons, Deni and Sharpe were a dynamic duo at the end of the season

His play ticked up the last bit of last season...but that's within the context of other teams also being in "end of season".

I think if Sharpe shows that he can improve his 3pt shot, scoring consistency, and defense even a little bit, he'll be on track for a pretty big payday. IMHO, if he's going to be tasked with more scoring load he needs to involve the mid-range area a little more. I'm going off of memory, but I seem to recall it was very much 3s and at the rim with him last year.

I also happen to think that he's going to eventually play very well with Yang in delay action. Sharpe has shown a real knack for cutting.

[mojomarc]

I think if Sharpe shows that he can improve his 3pt shot, scoring consistency, and defense even a little bit, he'll be on track for a pretty big payday. IMHO, if he's going to be tasked with more scoring load he needs to involve the mid-range area a little more. I'm going off of memory, but I seem to recall it was very much 3s and at the rim with him last year.

I also happen to think that he's going to eventually play very well with Yang in delay action. Sharpe has shown a real knack for cutting.

If he can improve all of those things he's worth every penny

[dckingsfan]

Sharpe has made progress... If you think you saw him begin to breakout at the end of last season, then we should see something this season.

Code: Select all

Year   Age    MP    TS%     3P%     AST%   TOV%   USG%   DRB%   STL%   BLK%   OBPM   DBPM   BPM
22-23   19   1779   0.568   0.360    7.9   10.7   19.0   11.3   1.0    1.2    -1.3   -2.0   -3.3
23-24   20   1059   0.524   0.333   13.8   12.9   22.4   13.3   1.3    1.0    -1.9   -0.9   -2.8
24-25   21   2252   0.551   0.311   14.2   11.0   25.1   12.7   1.3    0.6     0.0   -1.3   -1.3

[DBoys]

just to be clear, my entire argument rests on the premise that all cap-holds are not the same. Some, like Sharpe's are an obstacle. Others, like Timelord's next summer, and possibly Kris Marray's are no obstacles at all

the notion of Deni possibly regressing a little wasn't intended as a gotcha. Sorry if it seemed that way. We're talking about the calculus of cap-space, cap-holds, and extensions. I was just adding a possible factor to the equation. Everything we're talking about is a year from now and between then and now are a training camp, a pre-season, a regular season, a trade-deadline, and possibly, another lottery pick. The calculus will change

personally, as you implied, I don't believe the Blazer front office ever really intended to utilize cap-space next summer

Regarding the "cap holds" question, as it pertains to a possible re-do of the Avdija deal (renegotiate and extend) in 2026, it's always been a moot point. They will not come into play at all. The earliest that they might do such a deal would be in October 2026, well into training camp, which is long after all the deals are done in the summer. Either the total salaries at that point will total under the cap with room to do a deal, or they won't. There will be no cap holds in play at that point - either each player will have signed with POR (in which case you have his salary number), or he will have signed elsewhere (in which case there is no cap hold).

You guys already know the Blazer payroll numbers well, I'm sure. The cap in 2026 is expected to be 165.5M. At a minimum payroll approach, by October 2026 you would have returning players under contract already totaling about 129M (9), a 1st round top-10 pick in what is expected to be a good draft year at about 10M (1), and then minimums to fill the mandatory 14 slots (4) at 10M. That does not include any money being spent on Sharpe, Williams, or Thybulle, nor any spending in free agency using cap room or MLE. That leaves about 16.5M in cap room to spend on any of those, or to use for Avdija. If you think they will definitely re-sign Sharpe then there's no avenue to a re-do without other changes to the mix.

Obviously the math changes if they might do a deal to jettison Holiday and/or Grant.

MY BEST GUESS. I would think such an idea might be more likely in the summer of 2027 (if ever). That gives more time to deal Holiday and/or Grant, and otherwise reconfigure the roster to create cap room, and it also adds one more potential year to the extension that would accompany the re-do and be the point in the first place.

[zzaj]

Honest question to those on here who think that Lillard coming back is only a net positive:

What do you see as the path forward for the franchise if Scoot averages 18/5/6 and at least league average from 3 this year?

The one caveat--I won't accept "Lillard will come off the bench". In his own words, Lillard's intention behind rehabbing is to be the same player he was pre-injury. Lillard off the bench isn't sustainable.

[m0ng0]

It never made sense, but whatever its a done deal. To my eyes he seemed to have lost a step last year, and what happens if he comes back 65% next year. Chauncey says he will be the highest paid assistant coach of all time this coming season. Maybe he enjoys it and realizes he may not have it anymore and move into a role like that? I dont want him to leave, but I hope his ego will allow him to say he does not have it anymore. And if he DOES than that's another scenario completely. If Scoot improves, Jrue is still Jrue and Dame comes back in good health thats going to be awkward.

[dckingsfan]

It never made sense, but whatever its a done deal. To my eyes he seemed to have lost a step last year, and what happens if he comes back 65% next year. Chauncey says he will be the highest paid assistant coach of all time this coming season. Maybe he enjoys it and realizes he may not have it anymore and move into a role like that? I dont want him to leave, but I hope his ego will allow him to say he does not have it anymore. And if he DOES than that's another scenario completely. If Scoot improves, Jrue is still Jrue and Dame comes back in good health thats going to be awkward.

A bit but... If both Jrue and Dame play 60 games we would be lucky. There will be plenty of time for Scoot (opinion). I think the ego that needs to take a back seat is Scoot's (and that is really tough when you are trying to get your next paycheck).

[Wizenheimer]

I don't believe Dame 'lost a step' last season, at least not so you'd notice. The issue was poor synergy with Giannis and Giannis dominating the ball while Dame was relegated to a lot of catch & shoot and spot up

Dame's first and second seasons in Milwaukee:

2023-24-->2024-25

points: 24.3-->24.9
rebounds: 4.4-->4.7
assists: 7.0-->7.1
FG%: .424-->.448
2ptFG%: .490-->.528
3ptFG%: .354-->.376
eFG%: .510-->.547
TS%: .590-->.621
PER: 19.6-->21.3
assist rate: 28.8%-->29.7%
winshares/48: .143-->.175
BPM: 2.1-->4.0
VORP: 2.7-->3.2

better in every single category. That's not the sign of losing a step. It's a sign of a player adjusting to a bad mesh with another star. Giannis is a phenomenal player, but he's kind of like Brandon Roy in that he doesn't want to, or can't, share the floor with another ball dominant player....like Dame. It took Giannis and Khris Middleton 6-7 years to develop the synergy to be really effective. Dame was never put into a role he was comfortable with in Milwaukee; and we know Dame will work hard to develop a mesh with teammates

all that said, recovering from an Achilles tear at 35 years old seems like a monumental task. When Dame returns, his burst will be different, his shooting will be different, his reactions will be different. If he doesn't play next season (likely), when he returns he'll be a 36 year old guard trying to adjust to a different body after 13 seasons, 970 games. and 35,000 minutes. Tall order