2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[Pattycakes]

Blazers with basically the youngest team in the league almost will have made the play in this year .

can we just dispense with that narrative now?

yes, by average age of the entire roster, Portland was the 2nd youngest roster in the league

Washington Wizards 23.6
Portland Trail Blazers 23.9
Utah Jazz 24.0
Toronto Raptors 24.6
Memphis Grizzlies 24.7
Oklahoma City Thunder 24.7
Brooklyn Nets 24.8
Houston Rockets 24.9
Orlando Magic 24.9
Atlanta Hawks 25.0
Charlotte Hornets 25.1
Chicago Bulls 25.2
Detroit Pistons 25.8
Indiana Pacers 25.8

those are the youngest 14 teams, roster-wise, in the league. But here's the thing: 8 of those 14 teams are in at least the play-in (with better records), and Portland isn't one of them. 5 of those 14 teams are in the playoffs without having to deal with the play-in. OKC is less than a year older than Portland and they have won 63 games; Houston has won 49; Memphis has won 44

more than that though is that for most of the season, the Blazer starting 5 was: Simons-Sharpe-Camara-Grant-Ayton. Their average age is 26.1 which is 2.2 years older than Portland's average (average age of OKC's starting lineup is 23.6). And the player lowering that average, Sharpe, was benched for 20 games by Chauncey. And if Chauncey has proven anything it is that if those vets are healthy, they will not only start, they will play heavy minutes and dominate usage. And as of now, all those vets will be returning next season. Further, both Thybulle and Timelord will be 28 next season

next season, the average age of Simons-Grant-Ayton-Timelord-Thybulle with be 28.3. Camara will be 25.4; Avdija will turn 25 halfway thru the season. Murray will be 25; Banton will be 26; Reath will be 29

this recurring assertion that Portland is ahead of the curve on average age is bogus; it's spin

You wrote a lot to argue with something twas factual my good sir

[Wizenheimer]

But Ayton/Simons/Grant aren't really part of our long term future. Well Grant might be because we can't get rid of him...but the upside people are talking about comes from our younger players. And I don't think many fans fully realize yet how good Deni is.

how do we know this?

all three are Cronin's guys. He convinced Olshey to take Simons in the 2018 draft, then paid Simons well over his market value in 2022. He went after Grant, created the TPE and landed the draft pick necessary to land Grant, then paid him way over his market value when re-signing him. He coveted Ayton for 2 years before making Ayton the centerpiece of the Dame trade.

The only trade rumor I heard about Grant was that Olshey was demanding 2 first round picks for him...which is the same as making him untouchable. And I have yet to hear any credible rumor that Cronin has ever shopped Simons or Ayton

but I have had many Blazer posters assure me that it's only a matter of time till those three vets are traded. At this point, I'd say it's a more likely 'matter-of-time' that Cronin re-signs Simons and Ayton then the matter-of-time till he trades them. And Grant's lasts contract another 3 seasons

and as I said earlier, about the only thing clear about this situation is that if Chauncey is the coach and those 3 are Blazers, he's going to start them and give them heavy minutes

[Wizenheimer]

Ya obviously its not bringing in that clear-cut young #1 option needle-mover but realistically even if we tanked in a legit way that wouldnt be a guarantee. Its a pretty decent roster with a clear youth movement despite a few vets sticking around.

The Blazers decided not to go the direction of a "needle mover" on the roster. The only way for that to happen is via draft, and they killed their chances of that. No star player is going to come to a non-playoff team, and Portland lacks the assets to land one via trade.

If Shaedon and/or Scoot make massive leaps into "needle mover" territory, then that could be another way. I'd lay those odds at less than 5%.

EDIT: All that to say, the Blazers organization...based on actions, is not interested in rebuilding through the draft.

Consider Billups experience with the Pistons championship run. Who was super -star or needle mover for them? Prince? Hamilton? Billups himself?

really? that's a stretch a mile or so past the breaking point

that Piston's starting lineup combined for 16 all-star games, 12 All-NBA awards, 13 All-NBA-Defense awards, and had a 4 time DPOY. Maybe Camara will start making all-defense teams. And maybe Avdija will eventually make an all-star game, but as of now, his average of 17-7-4 with 3 turnovers is a long long way from any all-star consideration

Sharpe? he's very inefficient and at the end of his 3rd season, his best, he has a PER of 14.2 when the NBA average is 15.0; a TS% of .550 when the NBA average is around .575; a winshare/48 of .056 when the NBA average is .100; and a BPM of -1.7 when the league average is 0.0.....miles and miles to go; but he's only 1 season away from getting his rookie extension

I get wanting to root for the Blazers because it's your team; it's mine too. But all these 'squint-and-see-the-mirage' comparisons between a 12th seed in the WC and teams that were NBA champions make no sense to me

[DusterBuster]

Seeing the Pistons still brought up as this shining beacon of something teams should actually try and replicate is maddening. Cool, one team in the past 30 years without a "superstar" won a title, so... LETS DO THAT!

Common people, it's been long enough that we should officially be able to slap the clear label that the '03 Pistons were the exception to the rule of how to build an NBA title winner. If any GM is using that blueprint, they should be fired immediately.

[Wizenheimer]

Blazers with basically the youngest team in the league almost will have made the play in this year .

can we just dispense with that narrative now?

yes, by average age of the entire roster, Portland was the 2nd youngest roster in the league

Washington Wizards 23.6
Portland Trail Blazers 23.9
Utah Jazz 24.0
Toronto Raptors 24.6
Memphis Grizzlies 24.7
Oklahoma City Thunder 24.7
Brooklyn Nets 24.8
Houston Rockets 24.9
Orlando Magic 24.9
Atlanta Hawks 25.0
Charlotte Hornets 25.1
Chicago Bulls 25.2
Detroit Pistons 25.8
Indiana Pacers 25.8

those are the youngest 14 teams, roster-wise, in the league. But here's the thing: 8 of those 14 teams are in at least the play-in (with better records), and Portland isn't one of them. 5 of those 14 teams are in the playoffs without having to deal with the play-in. OKC is less than a year older than Portland and they have won 63 games; Houston has won 49; Memphis has won 44

more than that though is that for most of the season, the Blazer starting 5 was: Simons-Sharpe-Camara-Grant-Ayton. Their average age is 26.1 which is 2.2 years older than Portland's average (average age of OKC's starting lineup is 23.6). And the player lowering that average, Sharpe, was benched for 20 games by Chauncey. And if Chauncey has proven anything it is that if those vets are healthy, they will not only start, they will play heavy minutes and dominate usage. And as of now, all those vets will be returning next season. Further, both Thybulle and Timelord will be 28 next season

next season, the average age of Simons-Grant-Ayton-Timelord-Thybulle with be 28.3. Camara will be 25.4; Avdija will turn 25 halfway thru the season. Murray will be 25; Banton will be 26; Reath will be 29

this recurring assertion that Portland is ahead of the curve on average age is bogus; it's spin

You wrote a lot to argue with something twas factual my good sir

what I did was add context to a meaningless 'fact' that some people keep repeating

here is another fact: the average age of this Portland roster is 23.9. The average age of the Portland roster that won the championship in 1977 was 24.5. A difference of 6 months (7 months between the current Blazer average and OKC's average)

in other words, it isn't just average roster age...that doesn't mean jack-sht. What matters is rotational talent. The 77 Blazers had that; the 25 Blazers, not so much

[dckingsfan]

You wrote a lot to argue with something twas factual my good sir

what I did was add context to a meaningless 'fact' that some people keep repeating

here is another fact: the average age of this Portland roster is 23.9. The average age of the Portland roster that won the championship in 1977 was 24.5. A difference of 6 months (7 months between the current Blazer average and OKC's average)

in other words, it isn't just average roster age...that doesn't mean jack-sht. What matters is rotational talent. The 77 Blazers had that; the 25 Blazers, not so much

Yeah, lies, damn lies and statistics.

The average height... the average age... the average 3-pt shooting percentage.

Just individual statistics that are meaningless by themselves. This shouldn't be in question.

[dckingsfan]

Seeing the Pistons still brought up as this shining beacon of something teams should actually try and replicate is maddening. Cool, one team in the past 30 years without a "superstar" won a title, so... LETS DO THAT!

Common people, it's been long enough that we should officially be able to slap the clear label that the '03 Pistons were the exception to the rule of how to build an NBA title winner. If any GM is using that blueprint, they should be fired immediately.

Might be our only way forward though - at least with this GM?

[Walton1one]

Unfortunately, the way forward is probably without this GM and pseudo ownership....

[Butter]

The Blazers decided not to go the direction of a "needle mover" on the roster. The only way for that to happen is via draft, and they killed their chances of that. No star player is going to come to a non-playoff team, and Portland lacks the assets to land one via trade.

If Shaedon and/or Scoot make massive leaps into "needle mover" territory, then that could be another way. I'd lay those odds at less than 5%.

EDIT: All that to say, the Blazers organization...based on actions, is not interested in rebuilding through the draft.

Consider Billups experience with the Pistons championship run. Who was super -star or needle mover for them? Prince? Hamilton? Billups himself?

really? that's a stretch a mile or so past the breaking point

that Piston's starting lineup combined for 16 all-star games, 12 All-NBA awards, 13 All-NBA-Defense awards, and had a 4 time DPOY. Maybe Camara will start making all-defense teams. And maybe Avdija will eventually make an all-star game, but as of now, his average of 17-7-4 with 3 turnovers is a long long way from any all-star consideration

Sharpe? he's very inefficient and at the end of his 3rd season, his best, he has a PER of 14.2 when the NBA average is 15.0; a TS% of .550 when the NBA average is around .575; a winshare/48 of .056 when the NBA average is .100; and a BPM of -1.7 when the league average is 0.0.....miles and miles to go; but he's only 1 season away from getting his rookie extension

I get wanting to root for the Blazers because it's your team; it's mine too. But all these 'squint-and-see-the-mirage' comparisons between a 12th seed in the WC and teams that were NBA champions make no sense to me

I never said this team is comparable to that Pistons team. I was talking about the philosophy of roster building.

What is the Blazers route to getting a superstar?

The draft?
Trade?

All I'm saying is that if they don't win the lottery, the reality is that they are probably stuck with the "winning as a team" reality.

[BlazersBroncos]

If we can get Domantas using filler (Ayton + Kris) and our FRP - I do it. For all the hype this draft got, I am not that hot on it after the elite guys. I dont see using a 9 pick to get Sabonis as that high a price to pay. SAC likely demands more, I am not sure where I stand on what else I would offer.

Not willing to gamble on Zion. Would probably think about KD if the cost was similar to the above.

[Wizenheimer]

Consider Billups experience with the Pistons championship run. Who was super -star or needle mover for them? Prince? Hamilton? Billups himself?

really? that's a stretch a mile or so past the breaking point

that Piston's starting lineup combined for 16 all-star games, 12 All-NBA awards, 13 All-NBA-Defense awards, and had a 4 time DPOY. Maybe Camara will start making all-defense teams. And maybe Avdija will eventually make an all-star game, but as of now, his average of 17-7-4 with 3 turnovers is a long long way from any all-star consideration

Sharpe? he's very inefficient and at the end of his 3rd season, his best, he has a PER of 14.2 when the NBA average is 15.0; a TS% of .550 when the NBA average is around .575; a winshare/48 of .056 when the NBA average is .100; and a BPM of -1.7 when the league average is 0.0.....miles and miles to go; but he's only 1 season away from getting his rookie extension

I get wanting to root for the Blazers because it's your team; it's mine too. But all these 'squint-and-see-the-mirage' comparisons between a 12th seed in the WC and teams that were NBA champions make no sense to me

I never said this team is comparable to that Pistons team. I was talking about the philosophy of roster building.

What is the Blazers route to getting a superstar?

The draft?
Trade?

All I'm saying is that if they don't win the lottery, the reality is that they are probably stuck with the "winning as a team" reality.

well yeah, obviously. If Portland can't land a superstar, they'll have to proceed without a superstar

they can just settle for being a team somewhere between being mediocre and being a pretender.Which, by the way, is a team light-years worse than that Pistons team

Settling, aka: giving up is kind of in Portland's wheelhouse. Olshey gave up on ever adding an elite player as a partner for Dame, and so did Cronin. They didn't even have enough gumption to try. They settled. Keeping Simons around is settling; trading for Ayton was settling; signing Grant to a 5-year deal was settling. They can keep those vets, re-sign Simons and Ayton, give up on the idea of actually contending, and sell tickets in a one-horse town....settling

I hate it but I'm thinking that's the future for Portland

[Walton1one]

If we can get Domantas using filler (Ayton + Kris) and our FRP - I do it. For all the hype this draft got, I am not that hot on it after the elite guys. I dont see using a 9 pick to get Sabonis as that high a price to pay. SAC likely demands more, I am not sure where I stand on what else I would offer.

Not willing to gamble on Zion. Would probably think about KD if the cost was similar to the above.

I don't think any of those players: Sabonis\Zion\Ball\Ja could be acquired for POR 25' 1st round pick and a collection of overpaid cast offs. No way any of those teams are unloading those guys for that cheap.

[BlazersBroncos]

If we can get Domantas using filler (Ayton + Kris) and our FRP - I do it. For all the hype this draft got, I am not that hot on it after the elite guys. I dont see using a 9 pick to get Sabonis as that high a price to pay. SAC likely demands more, I am not sure where I stand on what else I would offer.

Not willing to gamble on Zion. Would probably think about KD if the cost was similar to the above.

I don't think any of those players: Sabonis\Zion\Ball\Ja could be acquired for POR 25' 1st round pick and a collection of overpaid cast offs. No way any of those teams are unloading those guys for that cheap.

Ya thats what I assumed. I wonder if we could add Simons into the mix and get more assets to SAC.

PDX OUT - Simons, Ayton, RWIII, Murray, 2025 FRP (9)
PDX IN - Sabonis, KCP, Anthony

SAC OUT - Sabonis
SAC IN - Ayton, Black, Murray, 2025 FRP (9), 2025 FRP (23)

ORL OUT - KCP, Anthony, Black 2025 FRP (23)
ORL IN - Simons, RWIII

SAC gets a prospect, 2 FRP, a twin and Ayton as a stopgap EC
ORL dumps a year of KCP and Cole, gets their guard scorer / shooter but pays a prospect and pick (I think getting off KCP and Cole makes this cost fair)
PDX goes win-now but manages to give up no core youth for Sabonis - taking on the bad money of KCP and Cole in the process

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony / Dalano Banton
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Kentavious Caldwell-Pope / Matisse Thybulle
F - Toumani Camara / Matisse Thybulle / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Jabari Walker JR
C - Domantas Sabonis / Donovan Clingan / Duop Reath

[Walton1one]

I just think the #1 ask is going to be that 29' (best of) 1st and if any of these teams are trading those players, they are going to want multiple picks + a young player, and I doubt that player would be Murray...guys like Ayton\Simon\|Williams\Thybulle, since all of their contracts are expiring are more for filler.

I don't see ORL trading Black and a 1st for Simons either. Maybe POR could get (1) of ORL firsts for Simons, and take back a guy like KCP, who has 2 years left on his deal and would alleviate some cap concerns for them, but would Joe even accept that? Sure seems like he expects a king's ransom for "his" players

[HoopsFanAZ]

If we can get Domantas using filler (Ayton + Kris) and our FRP - I do it. For all the hype this draft got, I am not that hot on it after the elite guys. I dont see using a 9 pick to get Sabonis as that high a price to pay. SAC likely demands more, I am not sure where I stand on what else I would offer.
Not willing to gamble on Zion. Would probably think about KD if the cost was similar to the above.

I don't think any of those players: Sabonis\Zion\Ball\Ja could be acquired for POR 25' 1st round pick and a collection of overpaid cast offs. No way any of those teams are unloading those guys for that cheap.

Ya that's what I assumed. I wonder if we could add Simons into the mix and get more assets to SAC.

PDX OUT - Simons, Ayton, RWIII, Murray, 2025 FRP (9)
PDX IN - Sabonis, KCP, Anthony

SAC OUT - Sabonis
SAC IN - Ayton, Black, Murray, 2025 FRP (9), 2025 FRP (23)

ORL OUT - KCP, Anthony, Black 2025 FRP (23)
ORL IN - Simons, RWIII

SAC gets a prospect, 2 FRP, a twin and Ayton as a stopgap EC
ORL dumps a year of KCP and Cole, gets their guard scorer / shooter but pays a prospect and pick (I think getting off KCP and Cole makes this cost fair)
PDX goes win-now but manages to give up no core youth for Sabonis - taking on the bad money of KCP and Cole in the process

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony / Dalano Banton
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Kentavious Caldwell-Pope / Matisse Thybulle
F - Toumani Camara / Matisse Thybulle / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Jabari Walker JR
C - Domantas Sabonis / Donovan Clingan / Duop Reath

To get Sabonis, a difference maker, to play the 5 and be able to play the 4 alongside Clingan within a year or so, it's would cost plenty (highly likely). The Kings have to want to go in a different direction -- athletic.

Sabonis = Ayton + Sharpe + Murray + the 2025 pick (non-top4). This is a substantial trade package to SAC.

It's a risk for Portland, but it's unlikely Ayton will continue for long as the starting center over Clingan (who better fits the D and salary concerns moving forward); Sabonis makes more, but he's a better fit and center despite being older but in his prime. Sharpe has plenty of ceiling and potential and HAS made a leap forward given lesser experience and missing growth due to injury last season. Murray is a rotation player and would likely benefit being back with his brother. And the 2025 8-11 pick has serious value.

I really like Egor Demin and Noa Essengue at 8-11. Both have some serious growth curves to travel, but I like how what they "can do" is complementary to how the team is being built while still being "swing away" moves. Sabonis, IMHO, creates a long-term dynamic that helps them leap forward as a team. I'd love to see it. [The loss of Sharpe and the pick are the biggest risks.]

[Norm2953]

How much this board would change if Portland in the 9th position pulled an Atlanta and
ended up with Flagg.

Other than luck, Portland after winning around 36 games has some hope for next season and could
very well compete for that play in spot if they can add to that young core. How they add to that core
is what Cronin has to figure out in his mind if seeking another Deni trade is the way to go as opposed to
adding another 19 year old.

I'd still like to see what Portland could get for Ayton +9 if its not Sabonis for adding a quality vet might get
Portland to .500

[Tim Lehrbach]

How much this board would change if Portland in the 9th position pulled an Atlanta and
ended up with Flagg.

I would be ecstatic if the Blazers ended up with Flagg, a can't-miss star (IMO), or Harper, a nearly sure thing (again, IMO). You're absolutely right that this changes everything. This roster is proving itself better than advertised due to its average-and-climbing defense and athleticism, and it's just begging for a dynamic centerpiece around which the others can turn. Flagg and Harper qualify. Of course, it would be incredible luck and not a validation of Blazers management if this happens. I think even the most pessimistic among us have consistently said that a franchise-changing talent would indeed change the course of the franchise.

I'd still like to see what Portland could get for Ayton +9 if its not Sabonis for adding a quality vet might get
Portland to .500

Agreed here too. I think most of us are coming around to acceptance that this just is the team's trajectory, and hoping for lottery luck is likely fruitless. Despite the team beating my expectations, I do not believe it is ready to vault into contention anytime soon via shrewd trading for veterans. But good asset management dictates that if you can get a better-than-average starter locked into a multiyear contract for a late lottery pick, you're winning that deal more often than not.

I agree with those who guess Portland would not get Sabonis for that package, but it's fair to ask how much more would need to be added for it to still be worth it. Maybe there's a price Portland could pay and still come out ahead. For me, that price might include Shaedon, but many fans will disagree, and I concede that theirs is probably much closer to management's position.

With or without Sabonis, and whether or not Shaedon was in a Sabonis deal, though, Portland will not ascend to contention without a major upgrade to its backcourt. I do not share the optimism of those banking on leaps forward for Scoot and Sharpe. I think either could still develop into a solid complementary starter, but a dynamic lead guard or wing is a must for this team to become great.

My dream summer would have Portland (a) luck into Flagg, move any non-Deni or Camara pieces for a veteran point guard, and pick up a veteran shooter in free agency (or another trade), or (b) luck into Harper, move any non-Deni or Camara pieces for Sabonis, and pick up a veteran shooter in free agency (or another trade). Either resulting roster is a playoff team immediately, IMO, and has contender upside pending development of the blue chip prospect.

My more earthbound, though probably still unrealistic summer would have Portland package the pick and other assets with Ayton for Sabonis or, as you said, a comparable starting caliber player (a lead guard or stretchy five, even better). If the prize is a center, consider moving Clingan for a good fit at guard, somebody who can shoot and lead an offense. If the prize is a lead guard, consider moving Sharpe or Scoot (or both) for an elite shooter who complements the new lead guard and Deni. The more attainable roster lacks championship upside, but it's a better five-year outlook than either resetting the rebuild to tank or betting solely on internal development and tinkering around the edges to improve.

Note that none of these scenarios involve moving Simons, Grant, Williams, or Thybulle for "value," nor using Ayton as anything but an expiring contract. I refuse to pin hopes of improving the roster on squeezing assets out of other teams in return for Portland's unwanted veterans. It's not happening.

[Sinobas]

how do we know this?

Joe is crazy if he does that, and I don't think the man is crazy. He also spent high lotto picks on their replacements.

Those moves weren't crazy at the time though, because the Blazers had to take on salary to trade Dame. We wanted to unload Nurk, so getting Ayton made sense, as at least he had some potential beyond a filler. What the Blazers were really after was young talent and picks, and they got Camara and Deni with Dame trade assets.

Simons was young and showed a lot of potential, he just never really progressed.

Resigning Grant and not dealing him when we had the chance was a blunder, no question, and we might be stuck with Grant.

[Sinobas]

Sabonis = Ayton + Sharpe + Murray + the 2025 pick (non-top4). This is a substantial trade package to SAC.

Yes, this is exactly what I've been saying. We'd need to include Sharpe (though I'd dangle Scoot and a mil swap first).


I would trade Sharpe in order to get Sabonis though. His poor shooting isn't really a good fit with this new core.

[oldfishermen]

Sabonis = Ayton + Sharpe + Murray + the 2025 pick (non-top4). This is a substantial trade package to SAC.

Yes, this is exactly what I've been saying. We'd need to include Sharpe (though I'd dangle Scoot and a mil swap first).


I would trade Sharpe in order to get Sabonis though. His poor shooting isn't really a good fit with this new core.

At first, I thought this was a FRP light going to Sac.

Can't get my head around Sabonis already being 28 years old, in his 9th season.

So I guess your trade value with Sharpe and the swap is fair. Would not trade Scoot untill we have a replacement starting true PG