Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Wizenheimer]

Fournier plays a lot in a line-up with Payton & Oladipo, both of whom are ball dominant guards that don't shoot well. Fournier is on the floor to shoot, he's not going to be racking up a ton of assist. In games where Payton sat he averaged 14.8 points and 3.5 assist. Most people would consider Parsons a good passer from the small forward position and he's averaged 2.5 & 2.8 assist the last two years. His best season in Dallas he averaged 4 assist.

Fournier does start at small forward for Orlando and at 6'7 he's not that under sized. I would rather have Batum back but that ship sailed. If also rather have Parsons but I'm worried he's going to have a short injury plagued career.

I'm looking at the Orlando 5 man lineups right now. Looks like Fournier splits his time between SG and SF, although it's likely it was just a 3 guard set rather then a traditional 2 guard set

in any event, the only top-5 Orlando lineup that had a positive point differential featured Fournier as a SG. the other 2 that had the 3-guard set with Fournier on the floor had negative scoring differentials. Not only that, they were really weak rebounding units with negative differentials, which gets to that rebounding issue I mentioned. Among NBA players who played 500 minutes or more this season Fournier is tied for 324th-329th. Only 349 players met that standard

total rebound rate this season:

Al-Farouq Aminu 11.5
Maurice Harkless 10.4
Gerald Henderson 8.0
Tim Frazier 7.8
Damian Lillard 6.1
Allen Crabbe 5.6
Luis Montero 5.2
C.J. McCollum 5.0
Evan Fournier 4.9

Crabbe is the better shooter of the bunch, Aminu the better defender, Henderson the best at getting his own shot, and Harkless is more of a jack of all trades but none of them are good enough offensively or good enough ball handlers to take pressure off Dame or CJ.

I don't think Fournier is either, and if it's a choice between Henderson at 8 million/year and Fournier at 18 million/year, I'll take Henderson. In fact, it could very well be that Fournier would cost more then Henderson + Harkless combined, and that's an easy call to make

and again: Fournier is RFA. Portland would have to overpay, maybe by a lot, just to get Orlando to balk at matching. And even with a max offer, it could very well be that Orlando matches....they willhave more cap-space this summer then Portland. All Portland might succeed in doing is losing the first 3 days of the off-season, and those could be precious. Then comes the issue of likely paying Lillard-CJ-Fournier 65-70 million a year. IMO, That's too much money for a back-court when only one of them is likely to sniff an all-star game over the next few years

I don't mean to rain on your idea Jsun; I'm just thinking that Fournier would be more of what Portland already has enough of

[Norm2953]

Howard to the Blazers would be interesting. Would you sign Howard to a 16-18 mil/year contract?

I would but its a waste of time to think about the top 3 FA centers (Drummond, Howard and Whiteside)

[Case2012]

Here is a plan I think is a possible solution. I'm just guessing at players values.

Sign Leuer around 8-10 per
Sign Fournier around 16-18 per
Resign Leonard
Renounce Robert's, Henderson, Crabbe & Harkless
Sign some smaller deals (3rd pg etc)

I'm sorry, but any plan that renounces Henderson, Harkless, & Crabbe, but keeps Meyers is a plan I want no part of. Yuck with capital why

Lillard/CJ
CJ/Fournier
Aminu/Fournier
Leuer/Aminu/Davis
Plumlee/Leonard

Thoughts? Fournier gives is an extra ball handler and shooter. Plus he's a great spark plug off the bench.

It will be interesting to see what Fournier's next deal is going to be because it might be a good indicator of where CJ's next deal will land; most of their advanced metrics like win shares and VORP are just about even. 16-18 million is probably a good guess, but it easily could be higher. I don't think Portland has any chance of getting him for that; Fournier is RFA and Orlando is very likely to match any contract that doesn't approach a max deal, and probably even then.

besides that, I don't like the idea of paying a bench player 18 million a year and Founier would be a lousy SF, IMO. He's a worse rebounder then CJ and a weak defender

Leuer gives us a consistent 3pt shooter and rebounder at PF. Plus he can drive off the fake and pass.

again, I don't like a roster that has both Leuer and Meyers on it, especially at the expense of Henderson, Harkless, and Crabbe.

We can go with 5 three point shooters & 3 ball handlers (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Leuer, Leonard) or go small (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Aminu, Leuer) or go big (Dame, CJ, Aminu, Davis, Leonard), or go offensive inside & out (Dame, CJ, Fournier, Leuer, Davis) or go more defensive (CJ, Fournier, Aminu, Davis, Plumlee).

3 point shooting is overrated when it comes at the expense of defense & rebounding or mobility. Portland landed on a really strong lineup at the end of the season that had Plumlee and Harkless in it as well as Aminu. That's hardly more then 2.5 three point shooters

also, IMO, there is a big difference between simple ball-handling and play-making. Fournier has a higher assisted FG rate (61.5%) then Henderson (59.5%), and it's not much lower then Harkless (63.6%). However Harkless takes 50% of his shots within 3' of the rim (Fournier 30%) and has a higher FT Rate so I'd suggest Harkless uses his ball-handling to better effect

when it comes to play-making, here's how Fournier would rank this year on the Blazer team in Assist Rate:

Damian Lillard 33.6
C.J. McCollum 21.6
Tim Frazier 21.3
Brian Roberts 18.5
Mason Plumlee 16.2
Chris Kaman 15.8
Evan Fournier 12.8
Meyers Leonard 10.6

he's better then Meyers, but that isn't saying much

I think Portland currently is a team too reliant on perimeter offense and finesse players, and too weak at perimeter defense. It sure seems what you've done is make them even more perimeter oriented on offense and even weaker in perimeter defense

Fournier plays a lot in a line-up with Payton & Oladipo, both of whom are ball dominant guards that don't shoot well. Fournier is on the floor to shoot, he's not going to be racking up a ton of assist. In games where Payton sat he averaged 14.8 points and 3.5 assist. Most people would consider Parsons a good passer from the small forward position and he's averaged 2.5 & 2.8 assist the last two years. His best season in Dallas he averaged 4 assist.

Fournier does start at small forward for Orlando and at 6'7 he's not that under sized. I would rather have Batum back but that ship sailed. If also rather have Parsons but I'm worried he's going to have a short injury plagued career.

Crabbe is the better shooter of the bunch, Aminu the better defender, Henderson the best at getting his own shot, and Harkless is more of a jack of all trades but none of them are good enough offensively or good enough ball handlers to take pressure off Dame or CJ.

It sounds like if you combined those 4 players you would more or less get Harrison Barnes. So i think we should just max him and hope he signs with us.

[Jsun947]

It doesn't matter if Barnes does sign with us. He's restricted.

And if you think a team has the best record of all time then refuses to match a contract on one of its younger up and coming players 3 months later... You must be high.

We have a better chance of signing Kevin Durant or Lebron James than we do signing Harrison Barnes.

[Case2012]

It doesn't matter if Barnes does sign with us. He's restricted.

And if you think a team has the best record of all time then refuses to match a contract on one of its younger up and coming players 3 months later... You must be high.

We have a better chance of signing Kevin Durant or Lebron James than we do signing Harrison Barnes.

4:20

Yes I am, but there's also rumors about them going after KD, and there's no way they could keep all their current players and max both of them out. I'm not sure what their current payroll is but they must be in the luxury tax or damn close to it. So i don't think it's out of the range of possibility.

[Jsun947]

They can keep him and give KD a max contract.

Curry
Klay
Green
Ezili's cap hold
Barnes cap hold

Still leaves room for KD at a max of they move the other contracts without taking back salary (namely Bogut and Iggy)

And they don't give a **** about the luxury tax.

[Norm2953]

Going to have to get that power big. Cost will be high but after this summer, its likely we'll
not have much cap space to go out and make any real moves.

[Case2012]

They can keep him and give KD a max contract.

Curry
Klay
Green
Ezili's cap hold
Barnes cap hold

Still leaves room for KD at a max of they move the other contracts without taking back salary (namely Bogut and Iggy)

And they don't give a **** about the luxury tax.

Stolen from the general board.

I'll preface this by saying I'm not a capologist. I'm just looking at from a rough understanding.

The GSW are roughly at 80 Mil in guaranteed contracts heading into next season.

Under Contract:

16.6 for thompson = 16.6 million
15.3 for Draymond = 31.9 million
11 for Bogut = 42.9 million
11.1 for Iggy = 54 million
12.1 for Curry = 66.1 million
5.8 for Livingston = 71.9 million
1.1 for Looney = 73 million
6.8 for Thompson = 79.9 million

Free Agents:

+ 8-10 for speights = 90 - 92 million
+ 10 - 12 for Ezeli = 100 - 104 million
+ 15 - 18 for Barnes = 119 - 122 million
+ 5 for Barbosa = 124 - 127 million

Correct me if I'm wrong but how much are you allowed to actually spend on a roster?

80 million with several potentially expensive free agents (including likely a MAX guy) to re-sign isn't all that great a situation is it?

I know the cap is rising to 89 million for next season but still.

idk how credible these guys our, but they basically have GSW in the 3rd worst cap situation in the league:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nbas-bestworst-case-2016-17-cap-projections/

Sure they can dump a few players but there is no way they can give barnes a max and KD a super max to go along with D and Klay and Curry next year.

If we threw max money at Barnes I think he would walk. Another guy i was thinking off was Mozgof. Under the radar big who's only 29, played great in the playoffs last year, is a true 7'1 250 center that you could possibly pair with either Davis or Plumlee. The way Crabbe is playing the second half of the season i don't think he's going to get the contract we thought he was earlier in the year, re-sign Roberts and you have some pretty interesting rotations and lineups.

Dame/CJ/Roberts
CJ/Hendo/Crabbe
Barnes/Aminu/Crabbe
Plumlee/Aminu/Vonleh?
Mozgod/Davis/Leonard...?

Or

Dame
Hendo
Barnes
Aminu
Plumlee

Or

CJ
Crabbe
Aminu
Barnes
Mozgof

Or

Dame
CJ
Crabbe
Davis
Mozgof

This is about the best case i can see Olshey doing, outside a miracle of Durant or DeRozen. Barnes and Mozgof are totally realistic targets and help us make up for some short comings in shooting and big men defense.They're incremental improvements but they probably add another 5-10 wins next year IMO.

[blazersbucs40]

Portland should look at Cole Aldrich if he opts out. Ive been impressed the few times Ive watched him this year

[Wizenheimer]

because of Portland's history, especially under Paul Allen, you know the Blazers will be looking at the injury history of any player they consider, doubly so if it's a big man

here's an interesting fact: Deandre Jordan can't hit FT's, but over the last 6 seasons, he's missed just 7 games. in 4 of the last 5 seasons, he's played in every game.

[Blazinaway]

because of Portland's history, especially under Paul Allen, you know the Blazers will be looking at the injury history of any player they consider, doubly so if it's a big man

here's an interesting fact: Deandre Jordan can't hit FT's, but over the last 6 seasons, he's missed just 7 games. in 4 of the last 5 seasons, he's played in every game.

yeah, the no injury thing is huge IMO

[Blazer50]

Given that Portland wanted the Clippers matchup - and presumably realized Blake Griffin could be playing well -
I wonder what the Blazers greatest needs are. I have been in favor of a Defensive anchor that would help cover Dame and CJs deficiencies - but under Stott's we might be betters served with an Offensive Post player to take pressure off the doubling and shutting down of our guards? I don't know that Whitesides or Noel would have made much difference in games 1 or 2.

Any new idea's of our best targets - outside of Horford and Ibaka who can bring both aspects of the game. Would be be better if we could run Kanter or Monroe in this series for 25 Minutes per game?

[Norm2953]

Portland is going to have to have realistic expectations for the Memphis Grizzlies are a solid
5 seed when healthy. The young T-Wolves armed with another lottery pick are going to be
tough. It's likely we won't have cap space in 2017 to do much so upgrading the roster might
be difficult for standing pat might see us in the lottery in place of the improving Utah Jazz.

It would take real guts to punt this off-season away by doing nothing and allowing our free
agents to walk for that seemingly was the plan last off-season. Another season of a team
messing with the cap floor would be frustrating.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Norm2953 has it right.
Golden State, San Antonio, OKC, and L.A. Clippers aren't dropping to 7th or 8th seeds.
A healthy Memphis is #5 or not much lower.

6,7,8 is Portland's future as a playoff team unless a significant player is brought in ... and soon. I don't see enough internal improvement from a current player to move up from 5 (or even holding that position) unless Harkless or Vonleh makes a really BIG leap. Even having a year of play together for team growth is unlikely to be enough to host a series.

While getting an impact player will not be easy this summer via a trade or as a free agent, it needs doing. "Move the needle."
I like the team. I like the players. Lillard was the only sure thing this season. McCollum made a huge leap. The Blazers are an impact player away.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Blazer50 mentioned Ibaka. Is he available? He could be an interesting pickup.

[Blazer50]

Blazer50 mentioned Ibaka. Is he available? He could be an interesting pickup.

Speculation that OKC blows it up if KD leaves, Ibaka is on a $12.5M expiring contract. No real reason to think he wants to leave and there would have to be assets moved to bring him in.

[Norm2953]

I'd be curious to see how NO operates this off season for he clearly was impacted by the play
of CJ and Meyers in last years Memphis series for Crabbe has a horrible first two games
against the Clippers and neither Henderson or Harkless has been anything special.

I would expect NO to operate as if he indeed has $41 Million in cap space and renounce all
of his FA's including Meyers if he thinks he can get a better player for he had no problem
allowing Wes and Rolo to walk and trading Nic. He'll likely hold off on offering CJ an
extension given he's only had one real good season.

[Blazer50]

I agree with Norm's assessment that Olshey will work the cap space as hard as possible, hold out CJ's extension so he can try to get 2 significant upgrades to our roster. He may have to settle with timing issues to resigning one (some) of our own FA and use space, but in looking at Free Agency 2017 does not appear to have the talent as this summer.

When you consider that some of the draft picks will make other guys expendable it expands our pool a bit more. (Will Sullinger or Vucevic really be in play?) I am sure there is a planned Home Run push in place, but if that fails, how much should we compromise to spend our cap now? Resigning CJ - who might get a Max offer in the $27M range (if the $108M salary cap projection is correct!) will limit our space - especially if we fill up with Plan b/c guys this summmer. Paul Allen will not want to over spend until he sees a real contender in place - (he's been there and done that with Trader Bob). I am sure NO is feeling the pressure to add some meaningful pieces to the new core he fashioned last year. We know plan A - Horford - KD - LeBron - DeRozan & for some reason Harrison Barnes.

Who should we target as a second tier? Kanter / Monroe still in play? Dwight Howard if he does not get a major offer? I don't see signing Mozgov or Cole Aldrich as moving the needle. What's the deal we need to make for 2016 FA to be successful! I'd like to get your input.

[skoharry]

i'm editing this post to this
this is what I would do this offseason
NYK gets mccollum, plumlee, & johnson[LAC]
LAC gets melo
POR gets griffin
if ny does go into full rebuild mode, paul wants to still wants to play with melo[who i believe would agree to this trade], and portland is willing to forgoe outside scoring for inside scoring...then i think all 3 teams would do this trade.
after that i would re-sign harkless & crabbe.
i would sign biyombo or dedmon to be our starting C since they both would be cheap and they both rebound and play D well.
then i would sign a good defensive starting SG like bazemore or c.lee
then with cj gone we will need a decent backup PG when dame sits. so i would sign either ish smith, galloway, or delladova[if we could get him somehow].
then i would sign a decent backup to griffin, so maybe jason smith, hickson, or t.booker
so if i had my way our roster would look like this
dame/galloway/montero
bazemore/crabbe/connaughton
aminu/harkless
griffin/hickson/cliff
dedmon/davis/vonleh
but that's just me

[zzaj]

It's not technically "offseason", but I sure think Tobias Harris would look pretty good in a Blazers uniform right about now. I wanted him back when those rumors were swirling, and I'd like him now.

I know many here weren't interested in him, but he'd be a pretty clear upgrade over any SF/PF that the Blazers have. He's about what Mo Harkless' ceiling is.