Moderators: Moonbeam, DeBlazerRiddem
JRoy wrote:Carter Bryant looks pretty good.
Jase Richardson | Guard | Michigan State | Freshman | 6’3” | 175
Few players have seen their stock change as much...The reason that Jase has experienced such a rise in his stock is sort of twofold. For one, the door has been left wide open for anybody to solidify the Top 30 in this class. Besides that, Richardson has been pretty good. On the year, Jase has put up 12 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.9 APG on shooting splits of 51/41/84...Synergy ranks Jase in the 96th percentile in scoring out of the pick-and-roll. Including his passing, his efficiency in the pick-and-roll drops, but only to the 90th percentile. He also ranks in the 93rd percentile in transition, in the 90th percentile when spotting up, and in the 85th percentile operating off of screens. With this sort of offensive potency, you’re probably wondering: “What’s the catch?”.
Jase is listed at 6’3”. That’s listed, with a possibility that he could be smaller.
Will Riley | Wing | Illinois | Freshman | 6’9” | 175
What makes Riley so enticing as a prospect is simple. For one, he has NBA length. Listed at 6’9”, Will plays with a ton of energy and is a threat on or off of the ball. Though he is only making about a third of his threes, the fact that he is putting up over nine threes per 100 possessions is actually encouraging for his trajectory. He falls into a category of player I always find weird, where he is better at shooting while guarded (37.3% on 32 attempts) as opposed to being open (28.2% on 28 attempts). For whatever reason, it feels like players who are better shooters when guarded can figure out how to shoot open as opposed to the alternative (more research required)...Riley weighs in about the same as Jase Richardson while having about six-ish inches on him, height-wise. As talented as he has shown to be, this will cause pause for some front offices if he can’t handle the physicality of the NBA relatively soon...Just paying attention to what NBA people are saying about Will and the draft at large, I would expect him to be in the mix for being as high as 18 once we hit combine season. From there, all bets are off.
Nolan Traore | Guard | Saint-Quentin | International (France) | 6’4” | 175
...was a consensus Top 5 prospect by pretty much everyone...Well, like most of the recent European prospects we’ve seen as of late, Traore struggled to shoot the ball. The lack of a reliable stroke typically means guard prospects have to be elite in at least one of two areas: athleticism and defense...He still hasn’t figured out the shot, as he is just under 26% from deep...Now, the quickness and vision are what keep him within the realm of real draftability. On the season, Traore is scoring over 10 PPG while dishing out 4.6 APG. The pressure he can apply on the defense—especially at his age (still just 18 in a pro league)—gives some hope that he can figure it out..Though we have Traore ranked at 25th collectively, I can assure you that his name comes with a wide variance in how he is ranked among our crew. ESPN—who has maintained a higher-than-most ranking of him all season—has him at 15. The Athletic ranked him at 14, while Bleacher Report has him at 17. I think that—perhaps more than most—Traore benefits from how wide-open this class gets outside of the lottery.
Carter Bryant | Forward | Arizona | Freshman | 6’8” | 220
Bryant had a usage percentage of just 16.1 during the regular season...Despite a low usage, Carter showed a hot-burning motor on defense, which yielded a 5.8 Block Percentage and a Steals Percentage of 2.7...Despite a short leash, Bryant knocked down over 36% of his threes on over eight attempts per 100. He also converted on all 14 of his dunk attempts...Carter came in at 24 on our No Ceilings Big Board, but some of us (yours truly included) are significantly higher than that ranking. He came in at 19 on Bleacher Report’s latest board. Sam Vecenie also had him at 19. ESPN completes the hat-trick by ranking him at 19. It’s worth noting that Givony stated “Bryant is the type of player who could help his standing in the predraft process as teams get a better look at him in a workout setting”.
With so many outlets having a physical, athletic, 19-year-old, 6’8” forward that has produced as potently as Carter did in limited minutes in the first round, I would be willing to wager that Bryant could be the combine darling with a real shot to claim lottery real estate.
Alex Condon | Big | Florida | Sophomore | 6’11” | 230
Condon plays such a translatable game. He runs the floor hard. He is a strong player, though he has room to improve on that front. He mixes it up on the boards, sets hard screens, and moves very well on defense...What makes him so intriguing on offense is that he makes good decisions passing the ball (1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio), but can also make some moves putting the ball on the deck. As we all know, NBA offenses prefer to have a big that the offense can flow through. Condon has shown the ability to facilitate. Not only that, but Alex is pretty confident in shooting the rock...I think most NBA teams will have guards that can play with and off Alex—in a very similar way Florida guards can...ESPN ranked Alex 28th on their latest board. Vecenie had him at 50 (again, late February) but mocked him at 37 on March 19th. Bleacher Report ranked Alex at 36. On our latest board, Condon came in at 50, but we mocked him at 31 to Boston. The time between our mock and big board was about 10 days—enough time for some convincing conversation.
Yaxel Lendeborg | Forward/Big | Senior | UAB | 6’9” | 240
is facing a few hurdles on his path to being a high-end NBA draft pick. For one, he is a senior, which puts a cap on how high he will ultimately be drafted...is also playing for a smaller major team. NBA teams are going to have to work through the talent gap projection...erhaps the biggest issue Yaxel will have to work through is his positional projection. Listed at 6’9”, Lendeborg plays a ton of center minutes for UAB. Even though he is incredibly productive , he would likely be slotted as an NBA forward. Without seeing him take on that role somewhat exclusively—and against low or mid-major competition—there is now even more projection scouts will have to parse through...Lendeborg’s production has been phenomenal this year. “Yax” has averaged 17.7 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.8 BPG, and 1.7 SPG. His ability to be an imposing presence while also playing in various spots is what makes Lendeborg such a bright spot in this class. As many know, rebounding is one of the strongest indicators of future success. He posted an Offensive Rebounding Percentage of 12.2 and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 24.4. He draws plenty of contact, as he is credited with 17 “And-1s” and a Free Throw Rate of 45.4...His defensive metrics are also strong, as he recorded a Block Percentage of 5.3 and a Steals Percentage of 2.8...makes good decisions and takes care of the ball. His 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio is very impressive...His two-way ability and physicality are what give those who are “in on him” the confidence that he will overcome the smaller conference and positional concerns...The concerns have been enough for outlets with intel to have him late-first at best.
John Hollinger
@johnhollinger.bsky.social
Great game! Rough night for Fleming unfortunately. Lendeborg wasn't perfect either but his best plays stood out, and will get to show scouts some more against Santa Clara this weekend.
Collin Murray-Boyles | Forward/Big | Sophomore | South Carolina | 6’8” | 245
Listed at 6’8”, there are questions that come with CMB’s style of play. He can get to the rim at will, which impacts his three-point volume...NBA teams have real questions about the perceived size/position juxtaposition. The thing Murray-Boyles has going in his favor compared to Lendeborg is that he has shown consistent production across two seasons in SEC play...The shooting is concerning...He has stepped up the three-point volume this year, but it is still low volume—just 2.1 attempts per 100 possessions. Murray-Boyles has only converted 9-of-34 attempts (26.5%) from three-point range...CMB is a force on both ends of the floor. He ranks in the 84th percentile (Excellent) around the rim and ranks in the 86th percentile (Excellent) in post-ups. As the roll man, Collin ranked in the 54th percentile (Good). He is credited with 24 And-1s, produced a Free Throw Rate of 55.6, and has dunked the ball 26 times. Not only does CMB use his physicality to score, but he also has an Offensive Rebounding Percentage of 8.8 and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 23.8...It should never go un-discussed that Murray-Boyles is just 19 years old, turning 20 on June 10th...Team fit may impact Murray-Boyles more than most players in this class. While physical, teams are struggling with his height, what position he will defend, and where he is most beneficial on offense. While many draft outlets are in a similar range on his stock, the concept of team philosophy puts him in very different “buckets” for NBA teams.
Bennett Stirtz | Guard | Junior | Drake | 6’4” | 180
In a weird way, Bennett has overcome some of the hurdles that Yaxel Lendeborg is currently facing. Stirtz is a 21-year-old (turns 22 in October) junior playing for a lower-major school. He doesn’t have elite size, as he is listed at 6’4” and 180 pounds. He also wasn’t in the “look out for this guy” spotlight that was projected in the same manner as players like Nique Clifford, Dailyn Swain, Xaivian Lee, Sion James, or Rasheer Fleming...His rise to draft community prominence has been remarkable, and he has been built on the back of insane production and efficiency. Stirtz, a player who Tom Thibodeaux would love, recorded a ridiculous 98.7% minutes percentage—which led the NCAA by about 2%! In those minutes, Bennett averaged 19.1 PPG, 5.7 APG, and 4.4 RPG—with shooting splits of 49/39/80. He operates with the ball in his hand a ton, ranking in the 87th percentile (Excellent) in scoring out of pick-and-roll sets. He also operated in those sets 45.1% of his time on the floor—ranking in the 98th percentile. When you include his passing in pick and rolls, he ranks in the 83rd percentile (Very Good). This is important when projecting a guard into the NBA...but there are questions about his separation ability...he is a fantastic shooter. Bennett shoots over 44% on catch-and-shoot looks. He cannot be left alone, but he is also someone who can hit tough jumpers. When guarded, Stirtz has knocked down 36.4% of his three on 22 attempts. When left open, he has made 52.4% of his 21 attempts. That sort of shooting has been so much fun to watch...He has put up an assist-to-turnover ratio of just under 3.0! His Assist Percentage of 33.8 ranked 35th in all of college hoops. He is also one of just two players with an Assist Percentage over 30 and a Turnover Percentage beneath 13...
Queen was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year and First Team All-Big Ten player because he was either first or second in all major statistical categories for Maryland...not shocking that Queen checked in at #6 on our most recent No Ceilings Big Board...Queen’s athleticism will be tested on defense in the NBA, as he’s neither strong nor quick enough to be a good center defender. That will be the biggest roadblock to Queen’s immediate success, alongside his quiet outside shooting...Queen will play at center, but his fit at the NBA level is difficult, given his frontcourt mate will need to guard the rim and space the floor, all without playing center minutes...most important takeaway of the weekend for me with Queen...shows that Queen’s offensive ceiling shouldn’t be discounted, as he’s willing to meet any moment and could one day develop enough to be a star at the NBA level, given his versatile and smooth offensive arsenal.
...his NBA potential was clear in his athleticism and his frame...the first game wasn’t one of Clifford’s best...His passing, which has improved from last year, was shredding their defense. His defense was frustrating their ball handlers and forcing turnovers. It was a complete wing game that would’ve fit perfectly at the NBA level, other than his shooting woes...second game showed off Clifford’s progression as a scorer...aggressive from the onset, driving at any smaller player with ferocity. He got to the line, drove well through Maryland’s zone, and paced Colorado State all night. He also kept up the same great defense, flying in for a blocked three-pointer, and continued to control the offense for the Rams...Clifford as a clear first round prospect in this draft and a likely top-half prospect, too. When the shots aren’t falling, he still is a plus passer and defender at the most valued position in basketball...The ease with which Clifford scored against a high-major team like Maryland should quell any last worries for skeptics of his game. While he won’t play the starring role at the NBA level, Nique Clifford is a plug-and-play wing who could see minutes tomorrow and contribute in several areas of winning NBA basketball.
Bryant has been a shining positive every time he’s touched the court. He’s second on the Wildcats in blocks per game and fourth in steals per game despite only playing the seventh-most minutes for Arizona...Bryant, in his spurts of play, is a clear future NBA player, but is also a damn fun guy to watch wreak havoc on both ends...Bryant stayed in lockstep with guards on the perimeter, outmuscled wings who tried to drive or post him, and soared for weakside and recovery blocks at the basket. There was little that Bryant couldn’t do on defense, as he significantly impacted that end of the floor whenever he checked into the game...He did a great job with said scraps, hitting a trio of spot-up three-pointers, finishing some cutting lobs, and keeping errant passes from flying out of bounds with his monster catch radius...still a raw prospect who needs some seasoning at the G-League level to improve his scoring instincts, but I arguably came away most impressed with Carter Bryant this weekend. Many NBA teams could still use a versatile, athletic, and intelligent wing-forward willing to play a role without any fuss, and that’s where Bryant will start. However, given his rare athletic profile, that’s the floor for him, with several exciting outcomes abound for a player of his drive and talent.
The smooth, frictionless explosion off one or two feet. The sheer elevation. The paraglider hang time. Edgecombe’s run-jump ability is a sight to behold—there may be only a handful of players in the NBA who can match his blend of dynamic athleticism. He has absolute trust in his physical gifts, which grants him a certain level of on-court freedom not afforded to most players. Under those auspices, Edgecombe has honed an anticipatory sixth sense most commonly seen in shutdown cornerbacks. He has the skills, motor, and reaction speed to become one of the best shot-blocking guards in the NBA, to go along with his passing-lane ball hawking. And he has more of a proof of concept than most NCAA players his age, having shown off these abilities at some of the highest levels of international competition. Edgecombe was, at worst, the third-best player on the Bahamian national basketball team in the 2024 FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament, on a roster that also featured Deandre Ayton, Buddy Hield, and Eric Gordon.
As ever for a player of his ilk, shooting will be the most important swing skill. It was a shaky start from the long range for Edgecombe in nonconference play, but since the New Year, his numbers have rebounded dramatically. His 3-point shooting efficiency from a standstill seems like a fairly safe bet, but the true ceiling of Edgecombe’s game will be determined by what he can do with his shot on the move, both on and off the ball. There have been glimpses of Edgecombe drilling shots off curls and some fascinating shot creation off the dribble, but his broader offensive skill set remains a work in progress.
Edgecombe succumbs to the plight of all hyper-athletes who graduate to a higher level of competition: Wild explosiveness isn’t enough if it can’t be harnessed. Especially since he is already on the small end of acceptable wing size. His leaping ability can get him into trouble at times when he’s trying to create his own opportunities off the dribble. He has a tendency to leap too early on drives, neutralizing any advantage he’s created with his speed by having to adjust and contort in midair. Edgecombe is an unselfish player and has a solid feel for getting the ball to his teammates, but there are discrepancies between action and intent. He is faster and more explosive than his handle is consistently capable of supporting, which leads to some awkward moments when he’s caught in no-man’s-land trying to make a play happen for himself and others. But his effort, tenacity, and raw physical tools can’t be taught. Edgecombe has the ceiling of a two-way star, but he’ll need to erase the lag time between his body and mind to get there.
I love players who can rapidly “stack” actions. Players who know, instinctively, how to respond to whatever the defense is doing with rapid-fire decisions. Jakucionis, the Lithuanian guard who left FC Barcelona to star for Illinois this season, might be the best at it of anyone in this draft. He’s the type of role-malleable triple threat that every team in the league could use.
Jakucionis fits a flattering Euro stereotype for guards in that he has an almost joyous bobbing rhythm in the way he moves with the ball—a command for starting and stopping that really puts defenders in a less joyous place. Jakucionis, despite having credible size for his position, isn’t exceptionally long or blazingly fast. He does, however, have a low center of gravity and can be very quick from side to side or in situations when he suddenly bursts to attack after lulling his man into a spot.
Jakucionis is also a fantastic passer. In fact, I’d put him just a step or so behind BYU’s Egor Demin in terms of pure creativity. He’s able to consistently survey where his open teammate is or is about to be, where in the defense he needs to sell a fake, what type of fake that should be, and finally, what type of pass should be the solution. I don’t penalize a prospect for experimentation (I love it, actually), and that’s why I don’t really grind my teeth over Jakucionis’s ugly turnover percentage (second highest among the 164 players who posted 150 or more pick-and-roll reps). For one, he was battling a nagging forearm injury for nearly half the season while playing in a physically demanding conference, and for another, the best problem-solvers break eggs when they’re making omelets. Jakucionis definitely has stints of letting his guard down while protecting the ball, but he tries things, and at this stage, I am all for that.
Ultimately, Jakucionis’s success at the next level will live or die with his credibility as a scorer, and while I don’t think he is an “If it’s in the air, jog the other way” type of marksman, I’m optimistic he’ll be a consistent threat as a shooter. Through January 1 (so, pre-injury), Jakucionis was hitting 41.4 of his 3s, and the types of attempts varied—a blend of stepbacks in isolation and dribble pull-ups in the pick-and-roll and catch-and-shoot looks. Post-injury, his self-created 3s dried up almost entirely, which I suspect was a result of that injury to his nonshooting forearm. Beyond that, the craft in his middle game could definitely stand to progress and evolve, but he’s great when he gets to the rim. When he isn’t finishing at the basket (71.7 percent there), he relishes contact, which allows him to be a foul-generating machine. I expect his broad-shouldered frame to become a useful hammer in the paint by his mid-20s.
Jakucionis doesn’t have the kind of length or explosiveness that would give him a margin for error on defense, and he’s not particularly disruptive with his hands, so he’ll always have to work to hold up within a greater team scheme. That said, I don’t think his frame and physical tools put him in a terrible position. He’s shown that his low center of gravity, balance, and quickness can be effective in working through screens. It’ll be a challenge, but the net result should be positive.
Johnson is one of the Real Hooper champions of this draft, a player sure to spawn swarms of feisty Twitter warriors huffing the fumes of the unbelievable highlight reels of him scoring in every which way. Falling down, spinning over either shoulder, hand glued to his face—it doesn’t seem to matter. Johnson is the most talented pure scorer in this class. His production as a freshman in the cold and ruthless SEC tournament was undeniably impressive, but his team’s success was very up-and-down. This raises a question: Has he been put in a tough position because of the quality of his roster (or his coaching), or has his roster been put in a tough position because of his style of play?
Johnson’s intoxicating combination of size and scoring gives him the look of a primary offensive option at the highest levels, but his tools may be better suited for a different role. Johnson’s speed, mobility, and dynamism as a shooter give him immense gravity on the floor, which should translate immediately to the NBA level. He’s also flashed some signs that he could become a nifty passer within the flow of an offense. Overall, he’s what I like to call a “pilot light” guy—someone who burns hot enough to fuel an entire offense … but can also burn everything down if the flame isn’t controlled. My instinct would be to put him in a position where his voracious scoring appetite can run wild, primarily working when the ball is swung to him, moving off the ball, or attacking switches where he has an advantage.
Because of his higher center of gravity, narrower side-to-side range in his handle (he’s particularly weak going left), and decent-but-not-super speed from a standstill, Johnson is doing the bulk of his work beyond the arc and facing up in the midrange. It’s good to have size if you’re going to play that way, and he does. At 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, he’s got the frame and the type of high release point on his shot that allow him to reach into the tool bag and get to work whenever he wants. On that front, he’s been very effective this season: Through 33 games (17 in conference) at decent volume, he’s been incredibly effective from 3 in transition, handling it in the pick-and-roll, and coming off screens. He’s a threat with the ball and is a creative and angular scorer, although his rim pressure could stand to improve, which eats into his opportunities at the line. Tre is like that “Wolverine looking at a picture frame” meme, and his pull-up jumper is what’s in the frame. This leads to a lot of settling: Through 33 games, Johnson has taken 95 dribble pull-up 2s and 99 dribble 3s, but only 80 total shots at the rim.
Johnson’s frame and attentiveness can be a challenge defensively as well. He’s not particularly disruptive creating deflections or turnovers. Screen awareness and navigation are a challenge for all young perimeter players, so it’s not a surprise that Tre will have stretches when it seems like his attentiveness is causing his feet to be behind the play and his arms and hands are trying to do the catching up, which has caused him to be fairly foul prone.
Willowy, hypercompetitive guard who naturally fills gaps on both sides of the ball.
The first thing you notice about Philon is just how damn hard he plays. It’s uncommon for a player as slight as he is to consistently put himself in the line of fire. He hounds the point of attack, over and around screens, with splayed-out strides. He’ll beat everyone to the punch on an offensive rebound. He’ll take bumps if it means getting a stop at the end of the play. Real small-dog energy.
The Alabama guard has the type of game that could serve as a case study in a college lecture on classical mechanics. It’s predicated on speed, but not in the ways one might expect. It’s not necessarily his maximum end-to-end velocity that is exceptional, but how quickly he starts, stops, and bends. His curvilinear acceleration—the speed with which he can turn a corner—creates advantages for him on both sides of the screen, as an initiator on offense and a navigator on defense. He knows how to create advantages for himself and has the vision and timing to pass his teammates open.
Philon’s vertical pop is a bit underwhelming, but he combats that lack of explosiveness by adjusting his time signatures: His drives to the rim are less run-jump and more skip-hop-lunge. There aren’t many players in the class better at downshifting their speed in the paint: His jail dribble is arresting; his floater is one of the very best in college basketball.
Teams will wonder about Philon’s true shooting potential. Long-range consistency has eluded him in Tuscaloosa, after he hit 41 percent of his 3-point attempts in his final year of high school. And as much as Philon relishes in physical play, his frame may always present some limitations—as poised and fluid as he is as a mover, he can get rattled on screens. Philon has a rare motor and a hunger that allows him to play far bigger than his size at the college level. But without outlier athletic traits, some of the more unconventional positives in Philon’s game could be neutralized in the NBA. Still, players with this level of competitive fire have a decent track record of being better than the sum of their parts—and there is a clear outline of a two-way guard with dribble-pass-shoot capability. Such players rarely make it past the top half of the first round.
It might not be a smart move trying to pitch the idea of Murray-Boyles in an elevator. He’s a remarkable defender who blends instinct and intelligence with strength, catlike reflexes, and lateral agility that’s unique for his frame. But … he’s a tweener (strike one) who doesn’t really shoot (strike two) and whose obvious playmaking vision and instincts are stymied by a neutral assist-to-turnover ratio (strike three)—without the absurd athleticism that allowed a player like Zion Williamson to transcend such mortal limitations (OK, we’re done here, pal).
There aren’t too many success stories in the NBA with a prospect profile like CMB’s. That’s a significant barrier; teams are looking for precedents to follow. Just watch him play, though. It isn’t hard to imagine Murray-Boyles as a Swiss Army knife in the pick-and-roll on both sides of the ball. He can rumble into a blitz, creating havoc for the ball handler with his quick hands and broad frame; he can operate in the two-man game himself as either the initiator or the roller. He has the quickest hands in the class and would be a terror as a help defender digging at the nail. CMB’s brand of versatility may be unorthodox, but his particular gifts and outright motor could give shape to a defense.
On offense, Murray-Boyles is a handful in the post, where his power, footwork, and passing vision really shine. Of course, there aren’t many teams in the NBA clamoring for a 6-foot-7 post hub these days. South Carolina has given CMB plenty of room to explore the limits of his offensive repertoire—his usage rate is up there with the biggest names in college basketball. His on-ball creation is still a work in progress, as evidenced by his turnovers, but for a player with his oxlike frame, Murray-Boyles has shown the ability to vary his drives by changing speeds and accentuating either his touch or his bullying force, depending on the situation.
As reductive as it sounds, CMB’s trajectory could very well come down to his shooting. Draymond Green once had positional concerns despite outstanding defensive aptitude, but his gradual improvements from behind the arc (and a David Lee hamstring injury) ultimately helped him get his foot in the door at Golden State. It’ll be an uphill climb for Murray-Boyles, but teams have been looking for their own personal Draymonds for more than a decade, and CMB actually has the skill set, not just the chalk outline of one, to make it happen.
High-level floor spacers who can knock down shots from beyond the arc in a variety of ways do not typically come in a brawny, bully-ball body type, but Knueppel has a chance to be one of the best of a rare bunch. He won’t consistently splash shots moving side to side with a phone booth’s worth of space, but he’s a major threat after setting a screen, and he’s money spotting up as a spacer (47 percent on spot-up 3s on the season). That shooting prowess, combined with his ability to consistently make basic reads and the flashes of creating his own shot in the midrange, have had my mind spinning about what else he could become.
Before this college basketball season, I wondered aloud whether Knueppel would wind up being Duke’s primary ball handler. While I still think he has some real potential in that area, I was probably a little ahead of myself on the timeline. Knueppel has polished footwork and shot mechanics in the midrange, but he’s still in the process of feeling comfortable burrowing his way into the paint with a live dribble and administering contact while staying balanced. The question going forward will be how much of a difference added strength and tightening the handle make because he has the tools to immobilize a defense with his ballhandling.
Knueppel is a high-feel player. Defenses pick him up beyond the arc because of his shooting ability, and the vast majority of the time, he forces his defender to chase him over screens. Once inside the second level of the floor, he’s repeatedly shown a sense for how the defense is tilting to take away his primary passing options, which, if we’re being honest, are among the best in college basketball. Very few teams are equipped to combat both a gargantuan rim-running lob target like Khaman Maluach and a springy and savvy forward like Cooper Flagg, and that creates a vending machine of kick-out opportunities. On the season, Knueppel is posting a 1.15 points-per-possession efficiency (93rd percentile) when the help defense is forced to commit to taking away his rolling big man.
Knueppel’s margin for error on the defensive end will be much slimmer. Despite having respectable size at 6-foot-7 and a lower body like a Humvee, Knueppel’s ability to navigate off-ball actions or contain ball handlers on an island in the NBA is a real question mark. It’s never an issue of effort or technique; instead, it seems like his feet, hips, and legs are stuck in mud whenever he tries to turn the corner and chase his man. Physical improvement, specifically lateral mobility and strength, will be on the docket in the pros, but his mastery of smaller details, such as a familiarity with his team’s scheme and the opposition, will likely make the difference between whether he’ll sink or swim on that end of the floor.
Playmaker with a dictionary-thick passing vocabulary in need of the scoring consistency to put it to use.
Walton1one wrote:No Ceilings had 8 pivotal prospects. Could one of them end up being picked by POR?
https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/stephens-eight-pivotal-prospects?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=536361&post_id=159174373&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1f5gb9&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=emailJase Richardson | Guard | Michigan State | Freshman | 6’3” | 175
Few players have seen their stock change as much...The reason that Jase has experienced such a rise in his stock is sort of twofold. For one, the door has been left wide open for anybody to solidify the Top 30 in this class. Besides that, Richardson has been pretty good. On the year, Jase has put up 12 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.9 APG on shooting splits of 51/41/84...Synergy ranks Jase in the 96th percentile in scoring out of the pick-and-roll. Including his passing, his efficiency in the pick-and-roll drops, but only to the 90th percentile. He also ranks in the 93rd percentile in transition, in the 90th percentile when spotting up, and in the 85th percentile operating off of screens. With this sort of offensive potency, you’re probably wondering: “What’s the catch?”.
Jase is listed at 6’3”. That’s listed, with a possibility that he could be smaller.Will Riley | Wing | Illinois | Freshman | 6’9” | 175
What makes Riley so enticing as a prospect is simple. For one, he has NBA length. Listed at 6’9”, Will plays with a ton of energy and is a threat on or off of the ball. Though he is only making about a third of his threes, the fact that he is putting up over nine threes per 100 possessions is actually encouraging for his trajectory. He falls into a category of player I always find weird, where he is better at shooting while guarded (37.3% on 32 attempts) as opposed to being open (28.2% on 28 attempts). For whatever reason, it feels like players who are better shooters when guarded can figure out how to shoot open as opposed to the alternative (more research required)...Riley weighs in about the same as Jase Richardson while having about six-ish inches on him, height-wise. As talented as he has shown to be, this will cause pause for some front offices if he can’t handle the physicality of the NBA relatively soon...Just paying attention to what NBA people are saying about Will and the draft at large, I would expect him to be in the mix for being as high as 18 once we hit combine season. From there, all bets are off.Nolan Traore | Guard | Saint-Quentin | International (France) | 6’4” | 175
...was a consensus Top 5 prospect by pretty much everyone...Well, like most of the recent European prospects we’ve seen as of late, Traore struggled to shoot the ball. The lack of a reliable stroke typically means guard prospects have to be elite in at least one of two areas: athleticism and defense...He still hasn’t figured out the shot, as he is just under 26% from deep...Now, the quickness and vision are what keep him within the realm of real draftability. On the season, Traore is scoring over 10 PPG while dishing out 4.6 APG. The pressure he can apply on the defense—especially at his age (still just 18 in a pro league)—gives some hope that he can figure it out..Though we have Traore ranked at 25th collectively, I can assure you that his name comes with a wide variance in how he is ranked among our crew. ESPN—who has maintained a higher-than-most ranking of him all season—has him at 15. The Athletic ranked him at 14, while Bleacher Report has him at 17. I think that—perhaps more than most—Traore benefits from how wide-open this class gets outside of the lottery.Carter Bryant | Forward | Arizona | Freshman | 6’8” | 220
Bryant had a usage percentage of just 16.1 during the regular season...Despite a low usage, Carter showed a hot-burning motor on defense, which yielded a 5.8 Block Percentage and a Steals Percentage of 2.7...Despite a short leash, Bryant knocked down over 36% of his threes on over eight attempts per 100. He also converted on all 14 of his dunk attempts...Carter came in at 24 on our No Ceilings Big Board, but some of us (yours truly included) are significantly higher than that ranking. He came in at 19 on Bleacher Report’s latest board. Sam Vecenie also had him at 19. ESPN completes the hat-trick by ranking him at 19. It’s worth noting that Givony stated “Bryant is the type of player who could help his standing in the predraft process as teams get a better look at him in a workout setting”.
With so many outlets having a physical, athletic, 19-year-old, 6’8” forward that has produced as potently as Carter did in limited minutes in the first round, I would be willing to wager that Bryant could be the combine darling with a real shot to claim lottery real estate.Alex Condon | Big | Florida | Sophomore | 6’11” | 230
Condon plays such a translatable game. He runs the floor hard. He is a strong player, though he has room to improve on that front. He mixes it up on the boards, sets hard screens, and moves very well on defense...What makes him so intriguing on offense is that he makes good decisions passing the ball (1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio), but can also make some moves putting the ball on the deck. As we all know, NBA offenses prefer to have a big that the offense can flow through. Condon has shown the ability to facilitate. Not only that, but Alex is pretty confident in shooting the rock...I think most NBA teams will have guards that can play with and off Alex—in a very similar way Florida guards can...ESPN ranked Alex 28th on their latest board. Vecenie had him at 50 (again, late February) but mocked him at 37 on March 19th. Bleacher Report ranked Alex at 36. On our latest board, Condon came in at 50, but we mocked him at 31 to Boston. The time between our mock and big board was about 10 days—enough time for some convincing conversation.
Rising up boards, would not mind seeing POR grab him with a late 1st...Yaxel Lendeborg | Forward/Big | Senior | UAB | 6’9” | 240
is facing a few hurdles on his path to being a high-end NBA draft pick. For one, he is a senior, which puts a cap on how high he will ultimately be drafted...is also playing for a smaller major team. NBA teams are going to have to work through the talent gap projection...erhaps the biggest issue Yaxel will have to work through is his positional projection. Listed at 6’9”, Lendeborg plays a ton of center minutes for UAB. Even though he is incredibly productive , he would likely be slotted as an NBA forward. Without seeing him take on that role somewhat exclusively—and against low or mid-major competition—there is now even more projection scouts will have to parse through...Lendeborg’s production has been phenomenal this year. “Yax” has averaged 17.7 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.8 BPG, and 1.7 SPG. His ability to be an imposing presence while also playing in various spots is what makes Lendeborg such a bright spot in this class. As many know, rebounding is one of the strongest indicators of future success. He posted an Offensive Rebounding Percentage of 12.2 and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 24.4. He draws plenty of contact, as he is credited with 17 “And-1s” and a Free Throw Rate of 45.4...His defensive metrics are also strong, as he recorded a Block Percentage of 5.3 and a Steals Percentage of 2.8...makes good decisions and takes care of the ball. His 2.1 assist-to-turnover ratio is very impressive...His two-way ability and physicality are what give those who are “in on him” the confidence that he will overcome the smaller conference and positional concerns...The concerns have been enough for outlets with intel to have him late-first at best.
He outplayed Rasheer Fleming in the NIT - 16-17-3 with 3 steals, 2 blocks and 7 TO in the win
Fleming had 6-2-0 1 steal\1 blk with 3 TO, 4 fouls
Lendeborg followed it up with 22-11-7-3 steals\2 blocks\0 TO vs Santa ClaraJohn Hollinger
@johnhollinger.bsky.social
Great game! Rough night for Fleming unfortunately. Lendeborg wasn't perfect either but his best plays stood out, and will get to show scouts some more against Santa Clara this weekend.Collin Murray-Boyles | Forward/Big | Sophomore | South Carolina | 6’8” | 245
Listed at 6’8”, there are questions that come with CMB’s style of play. He can get to the rim at will, which impacts his three-point volume...NBA teams have real questions about the perceived size/position juxtaposition. The thing Murray-Boyles has going in his favor compared to Lendeborg is that he has shown consistent production across two seasons in SEC play...The shooting is concerning...He has stepped up the three-point volume this year, but it is still low volume—just 2.1 attempts per 100 possessions. Murray-Boyles has only converted 9-of-34 attempts (26.5%) from three-point range...CMB is a force on both ends of the floor. He ranks in the 84th percentile (Excellent) around the rim and ranks in the 86th percentile (Excellent) in post-ups. As the roll man, Collin ranked in the 54th percentile (Good). He is credited with 24 And-1s, produced a Free Throw Rate of 55.6, and has dunked the ball 26 times. Not only does CMB use his physicality to score, but he also has an Offensive Rebounding Percentage of 8.8 and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 23.8...It should never go un-discussed that Murray-Boyles is just 19 years old, turning 20 on June 10th...Team fit may impact Murray-Boyles more than most players in this class. While physical, teams are struggling with his height, what position he will defend, and where he is most beneficial on offense. While many draft outlets are in a similar range on his stock, the concept of team philosophy puts him in very different “buckets” for NBA teams.Bennett Stirtz | Guard | Junior | Drake | 6’4” | 180
In a weird way, Bennett has overcome some of the hurdles that Yaxel Lendeborg is currently facing. Stirtz is a 21-year-old (turns 22 in October) junior playing for a lower-major school. He doesn’t have elite size, as he is listed at 6’4” and 180 pounds. He also wasn’t in the “look out for this guy” spotlight that was projected in the same manner as players like Nique Clifford, Dailyn Swain, Xaivian Lee, Sion James, or Rasheer Fleming...His rise to draft community prominence has been remarkable, and he has been built on the back of insane production and efficiency. Stirtz, a player who Tom Thibodeaux would love, recorded a ridiculous 98.7% minutes percentage—which led the NCAA by about 2%! In those minutes, Bennett averaged 19.1 PPG, 5.7 APG, and 4.4 RPG—with shooting splits of 49/39/80. He operates with the ball in his hand a ton, ranking in the 87th percentile (Excellent) in scoring out of pick-and-roll sets. He also operated in those sets 45.1% of his time on the floor—ranking in the 98th percentile. When you include his passing in pick and rolls, he ranks in the 83rd percentile (Very Good). This is important when projecting a guard into the NBA...but there are questions about his separation ability...he is a fantastic shooter. Bennett shoots over 44% on catch-and-shoot looks. He cannot be left alone, but he is also someone who can hit tough jumpers. When guarded, Stirtz has knocked down 36.4% of his three on 22 attempts. When left open, he has made 52.4% of his 21 attempts. That sort of shooting has been so much fun to watch...He has put up an assist-to-turnover ratio of just under 3.0! His Assist Percentage of 33.8 ranked 35th in all of college hoops. He is also one of just two players with an Assist Percentage over 30 and a Turnover Percentage beneath 13...
His outstanding creativity and ability to get where he wanted with his jittery handle and play at different speeds were evident. He improved on reads out of pick-and-roll, dissected UConn's defense with passes all over the floor and scored in many ways. Fears would have likely finished with a dozen assists (he had four) off the good looks he generated, but he was let down by Oklahoma's 3-for-17 3-point shooting and his bigs' inability to convert around the basket.
Though aspects of Fears' defense and finishing in the paint deserve scrutiny, his talent is undeniable. He's coming off a spectacular freshman season that has positioned him as a top-10 pick, with a strong claim to be made closer to the No. 5 to 7 range of the lottery, depending on how the order shakes out.
...showing off his diverse skill set and aggressive mentality...was a significant target finishing in pick-and-roll, created his own shots after some gorgeous moves and finished skillfully facing the basket. He brought better defensive intensity than usual in spurts, showing he has another gear when the moment demands it...His matchup with fellow first-rounder Alex Condon will be a huge opportunity for both prospects to show how their skills on both ends will project to the NBA.
Demin, 19, looked confident and aggressive and had some strong moments making passes all over the floor, showcasing his outstanding court vision and playmaking prowess. He was far from perfect, struggling at times to generate good looks for himself due to his lack of explosiveness, making some shaky decisions, and searching for the right balance between shooting and getting teammates involved, something common for a teenager at this level of competition.
He has gathered steam behind the scenes as a player worth considering late in the lottery. Riley has some shooting upside at his size and room to expand his game if he keeps improving physically. He struggles defensively because of a high center of gravity and lack of strength that can make him a target, but NBA evaluators see that his upside holds up well to most of the better wings in this draft class.
Though his jumper wasn't falling (0-for-9 on 3s), Clifford demonstrated the myriad ways he impacts winning on both ends, handling significant shot-creation duties and making good decisions with the ball. Defensively, he fought over screens, denied off the ball, generated turnovers, and brought terrific intensity against smaller players.
Clifford, 23, looks like a plug-and-play wing option ready to enter a playoff team's rotation thanks to his feel for the game, maturity, and strong intensity.
With his ability to handle, pass, shoot, and rebound, Lendeborg, 22, has the two-way versatility, skill, and instincts NBA teams covet.
His decision-making and technique leave something to be desired at times, and he hasn't been efficient against better competition (54% TS%, 16% TO% against top-100 opponents). Nonetheless, Lendeborg is a big man who can be deployed all over the floor and has upside. He'll be weighing NIL offers in the portal (he has one more year of NCAA eligibility) with the feedback he'll receive in May at the NBA combine, which will likely determine his next move.
He got where he wanted on the floor with his understated burst and slippery ballhandling ability, which is a good sign for his NBA projection, as he created advantages consistently by getting downhill in both games. That's important because Stirtz is one of the best passers and decision-makers in college basketball. Scouts will be interested in his ability to make split-second decisions and read out of pick-and-rolls once he's surrounded by better talent...He made 40% of his 3s this season despite being the focal point of opposing defenses while demonstrating tremendous touch and creativity finishing around the basket. It's not easy to gauge Stirtz's defense; he plays all 40 minutes and has to avoid foul trouble because of how heavily his team relies on his playmaking...Scouts will question his thin frame and lack of length as a defender, as well as his ability to transition to a much faster NBA style.
Stirtz is likely to declare for the draft and gather NBA feedback. Reuniting with Drake coach Ben McCollum, hired by Iowa this week, and returning for his senior year could be an option -- absent assurances of a guaranteed contract...Playing at the NBA combine might assuage some of the scouts' concerns and could improve his standing significantly for this draft.
His size, agility, and defensive potential should be appealing to NBA teams...His scoring limitations and questionable shooting (he's a career 20% shooter from 3 on 54 attempts in two college seasons) make him a project. He will need to expand his comfort level on that end. Swain's tools and upside make him an interesting player whether he tests the draft or not, but he'd likely be best served developing in college for another season.
...had a largely successful weekend, capping a strong freshman season...electric first step was on display in transition and the half court in both outings...could have looked for his own shot more instead of deferring to Baylor's ball-dominant guards...appears entrenched in the top 3 to 5 picks, depending on how the lottery shakes out
...had extreme highs, putting nonstop pressure on the opposing defense with high-level shots running off screens, pulling up off the dribble and hitting impossible step-back jumpers. And discouraging lows, running into screens, settling for well-contested long 2-pointers, poor defense and showing frustration when things didn't go his way...his diverse shotmaking arsenal is built for the NBA. He can pass when he is playing with his head up and looking to make the right play...many teams will be looking to get to know him better off the court to determine his potential.
NBA executives haven't forgotten how good he was early in the season, but he struggled to make shots from long range down the stretch (24.5% over his final 10 games) and recorded six turnovers in each of his last four performances...At times, he appeared to be pressing to make an impact...and being the focus of opposing scouting reports -- Jakucionis fared well overall. His positional size and playmaking instincts, flashes of shotmaking and intangibles should translate into NBA value in the long run, and will keep him in the top-10 conversation
Part of the appeal is how he impacts winning beyond scoring. He's a smart ball-mover and largely turnover-averse performer who is comfortable playing on and off the ball...Though he generally makes the most of his tools, he's not physically overwhelming and that raises questions with NBA scouts, who are concerned about how he would translate into a full-time, on-ball role.
...somewhat miscast as the Huskies' go-to guy at times... NBA teams remain attracted to his positional size, feel for the game, toughness and versatility. However, the biggest question is McNeeley's shooting, as he shot 31.5% from 3 this season and 44% on 2s.
Though his production since high school suggests he's a highly efficient, dynamic shotmaker from long distance, McNeeley will need to reinforce that in predraft workouts to enhance his standing.
His motor and production on the offensive glass have helped his case, but NBA teams will point to his inconsistent defensive contributions as they evaluate where he lands on their final draft boards...His lack of high-level rim protection (32 blocks in 33 college games) coupled with sometimes questionable positioning and feel underscore how far he has to go to earn major minutes in the pros. Newell helped himself this season, but he still profiles as a long-term project for whichever team drafts him, with a lot riding on the development of his outside shot.
...his warts as a decision-maker, defender and processor were on display...When Fleming, a 39% 3-point shooter, is making shots, he looks the part of an NBA big man with his 7-foot-5 wingspan, finishing prowess and the way he rebounds, blocks shots and picks up steals.
When he's not making shots, he doesn't impact the game in other ways, as he is a poor ball handler and passer, lacks the physicality to utilize his 240-pound frame in the paint and is a step behind defensively...George Mason, Dayton, and VCU targeted him relentlessly in pick-and-roll and one-on-one, and he yielded points on blow-bys, gambled wildly for steals, and was in the wrong spots off the ball, often watching while being late on plays...excellent physical profile and terrific numbers, largely accumulated against lower-level college competition, will give NBA teams hope for developing him long term. He's also a young junior (turning 21 in July). But how he ended his season will raise questions from teams seeking answers during the predraft process.
He's a sturdy wing defender who guarded multiple positions effectively with his length and good instincts this season...ruggled with confidence at times in a suboptimal team context, and never settled in away from the ball in an offense dominated by the Tar Heels' guards...shot 37% from 3 this season, offering hope for a long-term 3-and-D role at the next level. He flashed some passing ability that wasn't often evident in the stat sheet. He might greatly benefit from a second season in college to showcase his skills.
Some NBA team will likely value having a depth center who can run the floor, play drop coverage, hit the occasional open shot, and help in emergency minutes.
It's unclear how his prolific shot blocking will translate against more physical and athletic NBA bigs. His age doesn't have much-perceived upside, but there will be a place on a roster for Kalkbrenner, as legit 7-footers with his demonstrable consistency are difficult to find.
...struggled to make shots this past weekend...but showed the other ways he impacts winning with his character, feel for the game and underrated defensive versatility, reminding NBA teams of his value as a role player who could thrive when surrounded with more talent...keeps the offense moving fluidly by driving and dishing, making touch passes along the perimeter, and finding rollers in stride out of zoom actions...hasn't shot the ball as well as scouts might have hoped this season...A 39% 3-point shooter during UConn's two national championship-winning seasons, it wouldn't be surprising if Karaban reverts closer to that number with less offensive responsibility than he had this season, which would bring real value with the other things he brings on both ends.
...had one of his worst games of the season, going 1-for-5 from the field with three turnovers...has posted a paltry 45% True Shooting percentage and averaged 10.4 points over 10 games against top-50 opponents, per KenPom. Byrd's vaunted block and steal rates, the basis for his sparkling analytic profile, also dropped off dramatically in those games...rail-thin frame and lack of physicality raise questions about his ability to become a defensive stopper fighting over screens and containing stronger players one-on-one in the NBA...Returning for a fourth year of college and polishing his offensive skill set might prove to be in his best interest.
Walter Clayton Jr....He continues to showcase his plug-and-play skill set and ability to thrive both on and off the ball. WCJ remains one of my favorite potential draft steals/values.
Bennett Stirtz had a massive showing with Drake...His stupendous scoring and passing plays paced the Bulldogs all season, and his play has firmly slotted in Bennett Stirtz as a potential 2025 NBA draft pick.
Walter Clayton Jr....struggled throughout most of the UConn game...massive down the stretch, hitting some incredibly difficult and timely shots. I love his change of pace, quick burst, and his ability to pressure the rim...is a smallish guard, but he’s stocky enough and competitive enough to defend a few positions. He looks a lot like the Payton Pritchard of this class to me...
Tyrese Proctor...His shooting from distance, once a major concern for Proctor, has been elite this season...he can certainly solidify his spot in the 2025 NBA Draft with even average play for the rest of the tournament; if he can keep up anything close to his current heat levels, his draft stock might still have more room to climb.
Carter Bryant...His offense has been a little inconsistent...Where he’s been fantastic, though, is on the defensive end. His versatility, defensive playmaking, and rebounding have been fantastic. There aren’t many freshman wings in this class who move their feet, time their blocks, have the strength, and disrupt passing lanes the way Bryant does. He’s continuing to prove that he’s just a winning player.
R.J. Luis Jr....I still believe in Luis Jr. being a lottery-caliber prospect and look forward to the reigning Big East Player of the Year bouncing back in a major way.
Nate Bittle... I found myself wanting more...each time I watched him. For a player of his experience and size, I wanted to see more of a takeover in the paint...was seriously harried by the size and athleticism of the Arizona bigs until late in the game. It’s cast a cloud over the intrigue that had been building for me with Bittle over the past few months.
Johni Broome...lack of touch and creativity on the block has been apparent in both games; he’s missed all seven of his threes, which teams are begging him to shoot, and he’s hit just 36% of his free throws. His scoring has mostly come out of cleaning the garbage around the rim, cuts off their flex stuff, and gaps in the zones. Against Kalbrenner specifically, he looked rushed and overwhelmed by the size disadvantage. It begs the question: How does Broome score effectively at the next level? Is his best role going to just be a smart lunch pail dirty work type bench big? How high do you take that guy? It’s a really interesting case of production vs stylistic projection.
Ian Jackson...inconsistency all season and limited playing time in recent games, but it was still disappointing...It’ll be interesting to see if Jackson ends up putting his name in the portal sometime soon or if he gets enough positive feedback that he declares for the draft
Kasparas Jakucionis left me wanting...enjoyed a lot of his playmaking, but the ball security was far too sloppy, his shooting was inconsistent, and his defense was all over the place...has still shown me more than enough to be a Top 10 pick, but his late-season slump, culminating with two really sloppy performances, is frustrating...he inflated some of the concerns with his game.
...nice to see a lot of the kinds of flashes throughout the tourney that made Egor so intriguing in non-conference play...The playmaking is as impressive as ever, and shots have dropped in this ever-so-small sample...the volume and confidence in which he shoots is as close to important as the percentages for his future projection in my eyes. I totally understand the flaws, but at 6’9” with his innate tools and in my eyes clear room for growth I just can’t get too down on Egor. He may not be the star primary to hand over 30% usage to, but I think there is a real Lonzo-esque role for him.
Avg. Stock Price - 6.8 | Prev. Stock Price - 4.8 | High - 5 | Low - 13
Sell Me This Pen: A Lithuanian combo guard with ideal size, Jakucionis is a scoring threat with his deadly stepback jumper and impressive finishing ability around the rim. His intriguing playmaking potential and all-around offensive game make him a tantalizing prospect with a high ceiling.
Avg. Stock Price - 8 | Prev. Stock Price - 13.4 | High - 6 | Low - 10
Sell Me This Pen: An uber-skilled big with a refined post game, a slick handle, and intriguing passing vision, Queen blends size with high basketball feel. Drawing comparisons to Chris Webber and Naz Reid, his ability to attack downhill, facilitate, and dominate inside makes him a unique and versatile prospect.
Avg. Stock Price - 8.8 | Prev. Stock Price - 9.4 | High - 6 | Low - 12
Sell Me This Pen: A high-feel sharpshooter with a quick consistent release, Knueppel’s scoring ability from deep is his standout trait, but it’s his basketball IQ and smooth off-ball movement that truly elevate his game. His shooting consistency and court awareness make him a reliable and dangerous offensive weapon.
Avg. Stock Price - 11.2 | Prev. Stock Price - 10.4 | High - 7 | Low - 17
Sell Me This Pen: A reclassified freshman with stellar production, Fears led his team to the tournament in the competitive SEC. Despite his youth, his tough shot-making, downhill burst, and budding playmaking stand out, showcasing his potential to develop into a dynamic floor general with the tools to impact both ends of the court.
Avg. Stock Price - 12 | Prev. Stock Price - 42 | High - 4 | Low - 20
Sell Me This Pen: Son of former NBA wing Jason Richardson, Jase is an uber-efficient lefty combo guard with an advanced scoring arsenal. Richardson combines his buttery jumper, high feel, and smooth athleticism to consistently impact games. Though undersized, Richardson has the tools, IQ, and pedigree to develop into a high-level prospect.
Avg. Stock Price - 13.4 | Prev. Stock Price - 11.4 | High - 10 | Low - 21
Sell Me This Pen: A highly skilled power forward with a mix of finesse and athleticism, Newell is a constant lob target with potential to stretch the floor. His combination of size, mobility, and productivity gives him tremendous upside as a modern, two-way forward.
Avg. Stock Price - 17.8 | Prev. Stock Price - 8.2 | High - 12 | Low - 26
Sell Me This Pen: A 6’9” Russian-born wing with mesmerizing passing ability, showcasing elite court vision and the kind of creativity that can unlock any offense. His knack for setting up teammates in perfect positions makes him a potential centerpiece for a team looking to build around a dynamic playmaker.
Avg. Stock Price - 18.2 | Prev. Stock Price - 16.4 | High - 14 | Low - 27
Sell Me This Pen: A young, athletic forward with an impressive blend of physical tools and a rapidly developing skill set. Playing in Germany's top pro league, he’s already showing flashes of elite potential with his defensive versatility, rebounding, and ability to score at multiple levels. With his combination of youth, raw talent, and professional experience, Essengue is an exciting prospect with a high ceiling.
Avg. Stock Price - 19 | Prev. Stock Price - 11 | High - 13 | Low - 27
Sell Me This Pen: French point guard with explosive straight-line speed and impressive playmaking ability. Already producing in a pro league, his dynamic athleticism and court vision make him a high-upside prospect with major potential.
Avg. Stock Price - 21 | Prev. Stock Price - 26.6 | High - 16 | Low - 25
Sell Me This Pen: Talented freshman big man who played a key role in helping put Georgetown back on the college basketball map. With his strong presence in the paint, rebounding ability, and improving outside game, Sorber has quickly emerged as a promising prospect with a bright future ahead.
Avg. Stock Price - 21 | Prev. Stock Price - 26.2 | High - 13 | Low - 29
Sell Me This Pen: A physically gifted forward with incredible strength and a ridiculous wingspan. His ability to apply relentless rim pressure and stretch the floor offensively, combined with his elite five-position defensive potential, makes him an extremely intriguing, high-upside prospect.
Avg. Stock Price - 23.4 | Prev. Stock Price - 32.6 | High - 19 | Low - 33
Sell Me This Pen: Highly efficient wing who consistently boosts Arizona's performance whenever he's on the floor. Despite playing limited minutes, his two-way impact is undeniable, suggesting that his true potential may be much greater than what his current role allows him to show.
Avg. Stock Price - 25.2 | Prev. Stock Price - 35.6 | High - 18 | Low - 35
Sell Me This Pen: A versatile wing who raised his stock with standout tournament performances, showcasing his ability to dribble, pass, shoot, and defend. A true glue guy, Clifford’s all-around skill set and consistent improvement make him an intriguing prospect who may not be finished reaching his potential.
Avg. Stock Price - 26.8 | Prev. Stock Price - 39 | High - 21 | Low - 33
Sell Me This Pen: A versatile wing for Le Mans who can contribute in a variety of ways. Whether it's scoring, rebounding, or defending, he’s shown the ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor, making him a well-rounded prospect with plenty of upside.
Avg. Stock Price - 30.4 | Prev. Stock Price - NR | High - 17 | Low - 44
Sell Me This Pen: A talented teenage big man earning pro minutes, showcasing impressive defensive versatility. On offense, his efficient yet simple, complementary game allows him to contribute without forcing the action, making him an intriguing prospect with a strong foundation.
Avg. Stock Price - 31.6 | Prev. Stock Price - 30 | High - 15 | Low - 49
Sell Me This Pen: A wiry, scoring wing with a smooth jumper and a ton of potential. Though his season was inconsistent, he started and finished strong, showcasing the talent and scoring ability that make him an intriguing prospect moving forward.
BlazersBroncos wrote:I can see Proctor being a surprise FRP in the same way Grayson Allen was.
6'5 with the ability to play both guard spots, pesky if not elite defender, excellent 3 ball. Seems like the type of plug-and-play role player that a team takes as a surprise pick.
Clayton is just so small and not a true PG - I see Bryn Forbes in him - which is worth a decently high SRP IMO.
Stirtz is just a baller - more than a lot of players the athletic testing will be important for him IMO (And WS). I think he could be a bubble FRP but more likely a high SRP (BOS w/ that WAS SRP would be a great fit for him - SAS obviously as well in the SR). IDK who he really compares to (I dont want to use Kolek, too easy). Crazy stat is that on the court w/ Stirtz Drake had a 115.7 offensive rating - that sank to 89.7 when he was on the bench. Unreal. Luke Ridnour might be a decent comparison.
I see a ton of Brandon Clarke in Johni Broome - worth a late FRP / high SRP but really a limited guy who you probably want at best as the 4th big.
It wouldn’t be too difficult to argue that nobody has boosted their draft stock more in the tournament to this point than Tyrese Proctor. The Duke junior has been absolutely torching the nets in the tournament so far, knocking down 13-of-16 three-pointers through Duke’s first two games.
I’ve written about Tyrese Proctor before in a previous edition of Editor’s Notes, and it’s been fascinating to me to follow his evolution as a player since then. He’s continued his upward trajectory as a jump shooter, ranking in the 94th percentile on jump shots per Synergy, and he’s mostly maintained the steps forward he took as a finisher (shooting 51% inside the arc this season after finishing last season at 52% on two-pointers). The shot, once a swing skill for Proctor, has become his main selling point:
Interestingly enough, though, Proctor has stepped into more of an off-ball role this season despite his passing chops being the main selling point of his prospect hype heading into his college career. After Proctor led Duke in assists in each of his first two seasons, it seemed like all but a given to me that he would be Duke’s primary point guard in Year Three. Instead, Proctor took a backseat to Duke’s star freshmen Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel in that department—Proctor finished fourth on the team in assists behind those two and Tulane transfer Sion James.
It’s not like Proctor’s passing abandoned him by any means. He still finished the year with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.2, and he can still sling the ball all over the court when it comes his way. Proctor’s offensive growth outside of his point guard skills, though, makes him an easier fit. With his size at 6’5”, Proctor was always big enough to play at either guard spot. Now, though, he has the complementary offensive game to match. He might not reach the heights of his pre-college lottery projections, but his game now is more versatile than it has ever been before. If he plays at even an average level for the rest of the tournament, he will get looks in the 2025 NBA Draft. If he maintains a little heat after the first two rounds, though, Tyrese Proctor could be the next prospect in a long line of players to ride a March Madness hot streak into the first round of the draft.
Let’s start with the positives in his game...Queen is a gifted offensive player, especially when it comes to scoring in the paint. Overall, he grades out in the 78th percentile offensively per Synergy, and he is effective both in halfcourt (80th percentile) and transition (63rd percentile) settings. He’s especially dangerous around the basket; Queen ranks in the 85th percentile in at-rim scoring, converting 67.1% of his shots near the basket. He is particularly devastating on the offensive glass—Queen averaged 2.4 offensive boards per game and put them back up and in at a prodigious rate, grading out in the 95th percentile in his finishing efficiency on the offensive glass. He’s not the best vertical athlete, but he does a great job of making space for himself around the rim and finishing through contact—when Queen gets the ball near the basket, it’s all but a guarantee that he will find a way to put the ball through the hoop:
Despite being undersized for a pure center at 6’10”, Queen has an NBA-ready 246-pound frame. He has clearly put in the effort in the weight room after being a bit on the pudgier side heading into college, and he certainly will not be bullied down low like most young big men who are on the skinnier side.
...Queen has passing chops…and then some. Good passing vision is almost a prerequisite for an offensively-tilted big man in today’s NBA, but Queen is particularly adept at drawing double teams and slinging the ball out to open shooters. His handle is also elite for his size, and he’s perfectly happy to take his man off the dribble if the situation calls for it. Give Queen too much space, and he’ll hit the open man in the corner or slip the ball through to a cutter; close off his passing lanes, and he’ll put his man under the basket and get an easy two. Dealing with Derik Queen is a case of choosing the best of a bunch of bad options, and most of the time, he’ll make you feel like you chose wrong:
There are valid concerns with his size; as a 4-5 tweener, he’ll need the right frontcourt partner to fully unlock his game. Queen grades out well by some defensive metrics, ranking in the 93rd percentile overall defensively per Synergy, and he does have remarkably quick hands that allow him to rack up steals and cause chaos when it comes to playing passing lanes and preventing entry passes. Still, his shot-blocking leaves something to be desired, and he’s not quite mobile enough to be a 4 in most schemes—which limits his upside on the defensive end of the floor. On the offensive side of things, Queen turns the ball over more than you might like for someone who is most effective with the ball in his hands. He also has a long way to go as a shooter; Queen ranks in just the 12th percentile on jump shots per Synergy, and he has connected on just six of his 31 three-point attempts.
The shot needs work, sure, but there’s also cause for optimism. Queen gets to the line at a healthy rate (with a Free Throw Rate of .545 free throws per FG attempt and 5.9 FTA per game), and he knocks them down at a 75.5% clip—which suggests that his touch is better than his brutal three-point percentage indicates. The turnover numbers are a bit concerning but understandable for someone with his offensive role. I’m more worried about his defensive fit than I am about anything on the offensive end, but Queen can provide value defensively. He’s not a liability. He could be an awkward fit in the wrong kind of scheme, but he has the tools to be a contributor on that end of the floor if he gets the right frontcourt partner.
Ultimately, I have Queen in the top half of the lottery on my board, and I feel pretty great about it. There’s enough for him to fall back on defensively and a high enough floor offensively that I feel pretty comfortable with him being a valuable rotation player at worst. If he ends up on a team that can provide him with defensive coverage in the frontcourt and a bunch of shooters to spray the ball out to, though, watch out. Queen has plenty of avenues to being one of the five best players in this class, and I would be willing to bet that he finds one of those paths.
...one of the most fascinating and confounding players to evaluate in this class. The strengths are easy to see; he’s one of the best guards in the class when it comes to scoring inside the arc, he’s a solid passer who takes great care of the ball, and he’s an absolute demon defensively.
The weaknesses are also easy to see. He’s a poor three-point shooter and is frustratingly offensively inconsistent...I’ve changed my mind about Philon a few times throughout this draft cycle, but I’ve had him pretty comfortably in the first round on my board for a little while now. The offensive weaknesses are concerning, but his finishing numbers and game-management abilities should be enough to sustain him while he works on his shot...He’ll earn his playing time on the defensive end anyway, and there’s a lot to love about his game on that end of the floor. Philon fights over screens as well as any guard in this class—a rare defensive trait among even the best freshmen. He’s adept at generating turnovers both as an on-ball defender and as a ball-hawk in the passing lanes, without gambling too much and letting himself get beaten on backdoor cuts. It’s difficult for me to imagine most coaches seeing Philon lock players up on the defensive end and not wanting to give him playing time:
Guards who can’t shoot are rapidly losing playing time in today’s NBA, and Philon will be no exception if he can’t make progress in that area. He won’t be able to earn more than spot minutes without a jumper, even with his prowess as an off-ball cutter (he ranks in the 81st percentile on cuts, per Synergy), and his 6’4” frame and lack of bulk at 177 pounds essentially requires him to at least have some on-ball juice as a scorer to let the rest of his game play up. I’m normally wary of guards who shoot under 30% from three-point range—so it’s particularly surprising to me that I’m as willing to buy into Philon’s future as I am at this point. He checks nearly all of the non-shooting boxes that I look for in guards on the offensive end, and his defense has the potential to be special. Even if the shot never fully comes around, Philon can make enough of an “everything else” case that I would be happy to take the bet on his NBA future.
The appeal with Condon is pretty easy to see. There aren’t many 6’11” shot-blockers who knock down 34% of their three-point attempts like Condon did this season. Of that already small group, even fewer of them run the floor well enough to rank in the 90th percentile in transition per Synergy. He checks nearly all of the boxes that one would want to see from a modern-day NBA power forward:
Condon doesn’t do any one thing spectacularly well, but he is tailor-made to be the fifth starter for a team...He’ll have to prove that his 34% mark from three-point range was not a low-volume fluke; Condon averaged just 1.6 three-point attempts per game this season, and he shot 28.9% last season on only slightly lower volume (1.1 triples per game). His numbers from the free-throw line don’t help his case—Condon shot just 60.2% from the charity stripe on a much larger number of attempts (4.9 FTA per game), and he is at 63.1% from the line throughout his college career.
If the shooting is a mirage, the case for Alex Condon is a lot less interesting. Still, he’s a good athlete for his size, a menace on the offensive glass (Condon has ranked sixth and eighth in the SEC in offensive rebound percentage in his first two college seasons), and a great weakside shot-blocker. In theory, he’s exactly the kind of power forward that teams with offensively-tilted centers (like whoever drafts Derik Queen, for example) would want as their main guy’s frontcourt running mate. Condon will do the dirty work on both ends of the floor, space things out offensively, and be perfectly happy to put in that dirty work without getting fed the ball.
I’m still not all the way sold on his shot, but it’s hard not to get excited about Condon’s potential skillset. If he can maintain his 34% mark from three-point range on a higher volume of attempts, Alex Condon could be the kind of power forward unicorn that many teams are looking for, and he could easily end up as one of the biggest steals of the 2025 NBA Draft.
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