Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[cucad8]

he only played in 32 games this season and I don't see that he was injured. He was just out of the rotation or in the doghouse. In that kind of circumstance a lot of those stats are probably heavily skewed.

I'm really not sure why Denver would be so desperate to dump Faried. He'll be an expiring contract, and even with the 14th pick the Nuggets will be 10M below the tax line with only Will Barton to worry about as a free agent. And simply moving him won't give the Nuggets any significant cap-space....maybe 5-7M.

Maybe they know Chandler is going to opt-out? Then they could have 17-20M in space if they renounced Barton

I think Jocik is the big reason. Because he was a 2nd round pick, they face a big decision THIS offseason. He has a team option for next season. If they decline that option, he's a RFA this year, safe way to play it, you give him his big extension, or match whatever offer he gets, in a year with not that much cap space. If you try to be cheap and accept the option year, he becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season. When I believe a lot more teams will have space, and you can potentially lose him for nothing. And, you created a negative issue with not committing to him.

So assuming you start Jokic off at 20 a year, renounce Barton, sign 2 minimum salary vets, and keep 14, you're at 131 in salary, and an additional 9 in LT payment. And like 80 million of that is at the PF and C positions.

Let's say you sign Barton to a deal starting at 9 a year(slightly above MLE $$), Jokic at 20, keep the pick and Faried, you have salary of ~137, additional 20 in LT payouts.

So without Barton, and everything else the same, they look at paying about 140 million next year.
With Barton, and everything else the same, they're looking at 157
With Barton, and you send Faried and 14 to Portland for TPE? 121. Gets them under the tax.

Faried isn't going to be a factor on their team next season. So the question for Denver is, do they want to keep Barton? He was a big part of their team this season. And if they do, how much is their owner willing to pay. 36 million dollars for not having 14 seems like a pretty good move for them.

[Wizenheimer]

he only played in 32 games this season and I don't see that he was injured. He was just out of the rotation or in the doghouse. In that kind of circumstance a lot of those stats are probably heavily skewed.

I'm really not sure why Denver would be so desperate to dump Faried. He'll be an expiring contract, and even with the 14th pick the Nuggets will be 10M below the tax line with only Will Barton to worry about as a free agent. And simply moving him won't give the Nuggets any significant cap-space....maybe 5-7M.

Maybe they know Chandler is going to opt-out? Then they could have 17-20M in space if they renounced Barton

I think Jocik is the big reason. Because he was a 2nd round pick, they face a big decision THIS offseason. He has a team option for next season. If they decline that option, he's a RFA this year, safe way to play it, you give him his big extension, or match whatever offer he gets, in a year with not that much cap space. If you try to be cheap and accept the option year, he becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season. When I believe a lot more teams will have space, and you can potentially lose him for nothing. And, you created a negative issue with not committing to him.

So assuming you start Jokic off at 20 a year, renounce Barton, sign 2 minimum salary vets, and keep 14, you're at 131 in salary, and an additional 9 in LT payment. And like 80 million of that is at the PF and C positions.

Let's say you sign Barton to a deal starting at 9 a year(slightly above MLE $$), Jokic at 20, keep the pick and Faried, you have salary of ~137, additional 20 in LT payouts.

So without Barton, and everything else the same, they look at paying about 140 million next year.
With Barton, and everything else the same, they're looking at 157
With Barton, and you send Faried and 14 to Portland for TPE? 121. Gets them under the tax.

Faried isn't going to be a factor on their team next season. So the question for Denver is, do they want to keep Barton? He was a big part of their team this season. And if they do, how much is their owner willing to pay. 36 million dollars for not having 14 seems like a pretty good move for them.

that's a great analysis I hadn't considered. For some reason I was thinking he was in the 3rd year of a 4 year rookie deal...my bad

so yeah, Denver does have a very compelling reason to dump salary this season

personally, I'd rather Portland get Wilson Chandler then Faried, but Chandler was a big part of their rotation last season. So maybe, 24 for Faried + 14 would be the best offer Denver could get. I just don't know enough about who would be available at 14 to decide if that was a good trade or not. I would have to assume if the Blazers did this deal, the chances of re-signing Davis would drop...maybe by a lot. So it could be a costly trade both on court and in terms of tax

I'd wonder if Portland would consider jumping from 24 to 14 worth stretching Faried. That would be 4.58M/year in dead salary for 3 years. Steep, but 13.8 M in salary could add 40M in tax. Maybe, if Faried though he was going to be buried on a bench for another season he'd be willing to consider a substantial buy-out. Denver might even be motivated enough to do Faried + 14 for a couple of 2nd's. I wonder what the Blazers could do with 14 + 24. They don't need two rookies but 14 + 24 might get them up to 10 or 11. Or grab a player with 14 and use 24 to offload Meyers and ratchet down salary and tax

certainly it would seem over the years that the Nugget and Blazer front offices have each other on speed dial....maybe they are already talking and that's what Olshey was referring to when he said Portland was going to be "aggressive" with those TPE's.

[cucad8]

that's a great analysis I hadn't considered. For some reason I was thinking he was in the 3rd year of a 4 year rookie deal...my bad

so yeah, Denver does have a very compelling reason to dump salary this season

personally, I'd rather Portland get Wilson Chandler then Faried, but Chandler was a big part of their rotation last season. So maybe, 24 for Faried + 14 would be the best offer Denver could get. I just don't know enough about who would be available at 14 to decide if that was a good trade or not. I would have to assume if the Blazers did this deal, the chances of re-signing Davis would drop...maybe by a lot. So it could be a costly trade both on court and in terms of tax

I'd wonder if Portland would consider jumping from 24 to 14 worth stretching Faried. That would be 4.58M/year in dead salary for 3 years. Steep, but 13.8 M in salary could add 40M in tax. Maybe, if Faried though he was going to be buried on a bench for another season he'd be willing to consider a substantial buy-out

certainly it would seem over the years that the Nugget and Blazer front offices have each other on speed dial....maybe they are already talking and that's what Olshey was referring to when he said Portland was going to be "aggressive" with those TPE's.

Yeah, he's in the 3rd year of a 4 year deal, but it's a goofy 2nd round deal that was long enough to offer RFA status, but with the odd UFA after year 4 if option is grabbed. So it's a pivotal move.

As for Portland...stretching could certainly be an option, and would save a good chunk of money for sure.
And as far as 14, I just can't imagine we'd be doing it with the intent to draft a guy at 14 and call it a day. I would think it's with an eye on something, potentially, bigger, with a lottery pick and 24 to help with that.

[Waynearchetype]

If I could have a dream draft trade it would be this:

DEN OUT: 14, Faried
PDX OUT: 24, TPE
PHI OUT: 10

DEN IN: TPE
PDX IN: 11, Faried
PHI IN: 14, 24

PDX then drafts one of the Bridges. PHI then uses extra pick to dump Bayless on someone.

[tester551]

he only played in 32 games this season and I don't see that he was injured. He was just out of the rotation or in the doghouse. In that kind of circumstance a lot of those stats are probably heavily skewed.

I'm really not sure why Denver would be so desperate to dump Faried. He'll be an expiring contract, and even with the 14th pick the Nuggets will be 10M below the tax line with only Will Barton to worry about as a free agent. And simply moving him won't give the Nuggets any significant cap-space....maybe 5-7M.

Maybe they know Chandler is going to opt-out? Then they could have 17-20M in space if they renounced Barton

I think Jocik is the big reason. Because he was a 2nd round pick, they face a big decision THIS offseason. He has a team option for next season. If they decline that option, he's a RFA this year, safe way to play it, you give him his big extension, or match whatever offer he gets, in a year with not that much cap space. If you try to be cheap and accept the option year, he becomes an unrestricted free agent after the season. When I believe a lot more teams will have space, and you can potentially lose him for nothing. And, you created a negative issue with not committing to him.

So assuming you start Jokic off at 20 a year, renounce Barton, sign 2 minimum salary vets, and keep 14, you're at 131 in salary, and an additional 9 in LT payment. And like 80 million of that is at the PF and C positions.

Let's say you sign Barton to a deal starting at 9 a year(slightly above MLE $$), Jokic at 20, keep the pick and Faried, you have salary of ~137, additional 20 in LT payouts.

So without Barton, and everything else the same, they look at paying about 140 million next year.
With Barton, and everything else the same, they're looking at 157
With Barton, and you send Faried and 14 to Portland for TPE? 121. Gets them under the tax.

Faried isn't going to be a factor on their team next season. So the question for Denver is, do they want to keep Barton? He was a big part of their team this season. And if they do, how much is their owner willing to pay. 36 million dollars for not having 14 seems like a pretty good move for them.

Excellent write up

[PDXKnight]

If I could have a dream draft trade it would be this:

DEN OUT: 14, Faried
PDX OUT: 24, TPE
PHI OUT: 10

DEN IN: TPE
PDX IN: 11, Faried
PHI IN: 14, 24

PDX then drafts one of the Bridges. PHI then uses extra pick to dump Bayless on someone.

It's interesting but somehow I doubt PA/Olshey is looking to take on any salary right now with Nurkic and other FA's up for new contracts. Also I'm confused why Denver is this motivated to unload Faried?

[DusterBuster]

If I could have a dream draft trade it would be this:

DEN OUT: 14, Faried
PDX OUT: 24, TPE
PHI OUT: 10

DEN IN: TPE
PDX IN: 11, Faried
PHI IN: 14, 24

PDX then drafts one of the Bridges. PHI then uses extra pick to dump Bayless on someone.

It's interesting but somehow I doubt PA/Olshey is looking to take on any salary right now with Nurkic and other FA's up for new contracts. Also I'm confused why Denver is this motivated to unload Faried?

Check out cucads post on why the Nuggets would be motivated to dump salary.

[cucad8]

If I could have a dream draft trade it would be this:

DEN OUT: 14, Faried
PDX OUT: 24, TPE
PHI OUT: 10

DEN IN: TPE
PDX IN: 11, Faried
PHI IN: 14, 24

PDX then drafts one of the Bridges. PHI then uses extra pick to dump Bayless on someone.

It seems unlikely to me with where they're at in their development, that Philly would trade 1 pick for 2, moving down.

[PDXKnight]

If I could have a dream draft trade it would be this:

DEN OUT: 14, Faried
PDX OUT: 24, TPE
PHI OUT: 10

DEN IN: TPE
PDX IN: 11, Faried
PHI IN: 14, 24

PDX then drafts one of the Bridges. PHI then uses extra pick to dump Bayless on someone.

It's interesting but somehow I doubt PA/Olshey is looking to take on any salary right now with Nurkic and other FA's up for new contracts. Also I'm confused why Denver is this motivated to unload Faried?

Check out cucads post on why the Nuggets would be motivated to dump salary.

Oh I see, didn't realize Jokic's cap situation was this complicated

[Waynearchetype]

Jokic and Olshey saying he was looking to utilize the TPE brought that subject on.

[plyrically]

I see Faried's name coming up in endless trade rumors all over the net, but I have yet to see a scenario involving the Blazers..I doubt the people spreading the rumors are even aware of the fact we've got a TPE.

Anyways, that 3-Way with Philly is a pipe-dream, but I definitely think there's a chance Miles Bridges is there at 14. After having witnessed this years rookie class, don't you guys think that what this team is missing is a 3&D who can flat out score and be consistent like Mikal Bridges? Hopefully Olshey notices that as well and does his best to get deep in the lotto just like last year.

[Village Idiot]

If I could have a dream draft trade it would be this:

DEN OUT: 14, Faried
PDX OUT: 24, TPE
PHI OUT: 10

DEN IN: TPE
PDX IN: 11, Faried
PHI IN: 14, 24

PDX then drafts one of the Bridges. PHI then uses extra pick to dump Bayless on someone.

It seems unlikely to me with where they're at in their development, that Philly would trade 1 pick for 2, moving down.

Agreed.They have two 1st rounders and four 2nd rounders this draft as well as two 1sts in the next two draft.

New York at #9 seems like a better target.

[JasonStern]

Mainly I'm thinking about Kevin Love when/if (...when) LeBron leaves. I don't suspect the market will be very strong for him and I think Portland could get him with a surprisingly reasonable offer, meaning I don't think they would have to move CJ to get him.

Say Portland does something like Aminu, Leonard, Swanigan and 2019 1st rounder (Top 6 or 10 protected) for Love.

at a minimum, Cleveland would want Collins in a non-CJ Love trade. Collins+1st+Harkless+Leonard works under the CBA. gives Cleveland a prospect in Collins, a pick to rebuild with, a decent young-ish player in Harkless, and the necessary trade filler. for Portland, you build around 27 year old Damian Lillard instead of 32 year old Damian Lillard, presuming he'll re-sign with Portland given the roster Olshey provided him in his prime.

[zzaj]

Mainly I'm thinking about Kevin Love when/if (...when) LeBron leaves. I don't suspect the market will be very strong for him and I think Portland could get him with a surprisingly reasonable offer, meaning I don't think they would have to move CJ to get him.

Say Portland does something like Aminu, Leonard, Swanigan and 2019 1st rounder (Top 6 or 10 protected) for Love.

at a minimum, Cleveland would want Collins in a non-CJ Love trade. Collins+1st+Harkless+Leonard works under the CBA. gives Cleveland a prospect in Collins, a pick to rebuild with, a decent young-ish player in Harkless, and the necessary trade filler. for Portland, you build around 27 year old Damian Lillard instead of 32 year old Damian Lillard, presuming he'll re-sign with Portland given the roster Olshey provided him in his prime.

At least with Love on the team you could guarantee he would break his [list unnamed body part here] at Casa Diablo instead of doing knuckle pushups. That would at least somewhat make up for the 20-30 annual games he's missed for the past 8 years or so...

[Brandon-Clyde]

Mainly I'm thinking about Kevin Love when/if (...when) LeBron leaves. I don't suspect the market will be very strong for him and I think Portland could get him with a surprisingly reasonable offer, meaning I don't think they would have to move CJ to get him.

Say Portland does something like Aminu, Leonard, Swanigan and 2019 1st rounder (Top 6 or 10 protected) for Love.

at a minimum, Cleveland would want Collins in a non-CJ Love trade. Collins+1st+Harkless+Leonard works under the CBA. gives Cleveland a prospect in Collins, a pick to rebuild with, a decent young-ish player in Harkless, and the necessary trade filler. for Portland, you build around 27 year old Damian Lillard instead of 32 year old Damian Lillard, presuming he'll re-sign with Portland given the roster Olshey provided him in his prime.

I just don't value Love that highly. Great rebounder maybe but only slightly above average scoring and well below average defense. The most I would offer is 24+Caleb+Aminu+Leonard. If that isn't enough I don't do it

[plyrically]

Mainly I'm thinking about Kevin Love when/if (...when) LeBron leaves. I don't suspect the market will be very strong for him and I think Portland could get him with a surprisingly reasonable offer, meaning I don't think they would have to move CJ to get him.

Say Portland does something like Aminu, Leonard, Swanigan and 2019 1st rounder (Top 6 or 10 protected) for Love.

at a minimum, Cleveland would want Collins in a non-CJ Love trade. Collins+1st+Harkless+Leonard works under the CBA. gives Cleveland a prospect in Collins, a pick to rebuild with, a decent young-ish player in Harkless, and the necessary trade filler. for Portland, you build around 27 year old Damian Lillard instead of 32 year old Damian Lillard, presuming he'll re-sign with Portland given the roster Olshey provided him in his prime.

Yea I’m not trading Zach, the pick, and Mo for Love. Gosh what a ripoff.

[Wizenheimer]

I just don't value Love that highly. Great rebounder maybe but only slightly above average scoring and well below average defense. The most I would offer is 24+Caleb+Aminu+Leonard. If that isn't enough I don't do it

depends on what you mean by "scoring". He's quite a bit more efficient then CJ as a scorer, but of course, he doesn't create his own shots much. Love has a .569 career TS% vs CJ's .552, and CJ's mark might be skewed a bit high by his career year last season. CJ has averaged 1.19 points/shot; Love has averaged 1.34

and of course, Love is much better as a rebounder then CJ is as a play-maker. That explains Love's career PER of 21.9 vs CJ at 17.2

even with all that I'd value CJ a little higher and a big reason for that is Love's injury history. He's too fragile and injury prone

I doubt Love will be traded till Lebron quits playing Hamlet again so that pretty much eliminates 2018 draft picks from the equation

[Brandon-Clyde]

I just don't value Love that highly. Great rebounder maybe but only slightly above average scoring and well below average defense. The most I would offer is 24+Caleb+Aminu+Leonard. If that isn't enough I don't do it

depends on what you mean by "scoring". He's quite a bit more efficient then CJ as a scorer, but of course, he doesn't create his own shots much. Love has a .569 career TS% vs CJ's .552, and CJ's mark might be skewed a bit high by his career year last season. CJ has averaged 1.19 points/shot; Love has averaged 1.34

and of course, Love is much better as a rebounder then CJ is as a play-maker. That explains Love's career PER of 21.9 vs CJ at 17.2

even with all that I'd value CJ a little higher and a big reason for that is Love's injury history. He's too fragile and injury prone

I doubt Love will be traded till Lebron quits playing Hamlet again so that pretty much eliminates 2018 draft picks from the equation

At which point I would change it to a lottery protected 2019 first( same protection in 2020 the 2 second round picks in 2021 and 2022). I just don't place much value on Love as a difference maker

[JasonStern]

I just don't value Love that highly. Great rebounder maybe but only slightly above average scoring and well below average defense. The most I would offer is 24+Caleb+Aminu+Leonard. If that isn't enough I don't do it

I'm not sure that package even has positive value, at least to Cleveland. the consensus is that it would cost Portland #24 to move Meyers, so that leaves a backup big that only played 27 games and a 27-year old mid-tier 3/4 tweener that is of no use to a rebuilding team.

the main reason to make a move for Love is to show Dame the Blazers are at least trying to build a better supporting roster, as opposed to having to make a Cleveland like "the #8 pick could be a good player in a few years!" LeBron pitch.

I just don't place much value on Love as a difference maker

the Blazers are capped out without many positive value players, competing in a conference with Golden State and Houston. nothing they can do short-term is going to make an immediate difference.

[Brandon-Clyde]

I just don't value Love that highly. Great rebounder maybe but only slightly above average scoring and well below average defense. The most I would offer is 24+Caleb+Aminu+Leonard. If that isn't enough I don't do it

I'm not sure that package even has positive value, at least to Cleveland. the consensus is that it would cost Portland #24 to move Meyers, so that leaves a backup big that only played 27 games and a 27-year old mid-tier 3/4 tweener that is of no use to a rebuilding team.

the main reason to make a move for Love is to show Dame the Blazers are at least trying to build a better supporting roster, as opposed to having to make a Cleveland like "the #8 pick could be a good player in a few years!" LeBron pitch.

I just don't place much value on Love as a difference maker

the Blazers are capped out without many positive value players, competing in a conference with Golden State and Houston. nothing they can do short-term is going to make an immediate difference.

The deal reduces Cleveland's payroll slightly in the first year and by around 8-9 million the second year, gives them a young big big(with limited upside admittedly) and a 1st. They can decide to keep Aminu or trade him for further cap relief and/or a pick.
Also if nothing is going to make an immediate difference why trade the young prospect that is possibly our pf or center of the future?
My feeling is if you can bring in Love at a cheap enough price to add to our core fine but that you don't trade a core piece for him or mortgage the future for him