zzaj wrote:Wizenheimer wrote:Walton1one wrote:Yes, good post,
Simons & Grant are good players, but not good enough to lead a team to anything meaningful. No guarantee that Scoot\Sharpe\Avdija are either, but they are all younger\have time to reach their potential and you hope that that one of them can develop into such a player, or if not POR finds that player in 2025/2026.
I'm a little skeptical Avdija can develop into an elite player. The coming season will be his 5th and he'll turn 24 in January. That may be too far down the NBA trail to allow for big jumps up the ladder. He did have an impressive season last year. He averaged 15-7-4 and had big jumps in production and efficiency across the board. But he did so on a terrible team when winning wasn't a goal. That always makes the numbers a little suspect. I'm thinking his ceiling may be an integral glue-guy who has all-star level talent without ever getting to the game. I hope it's higher
Scoot? he certainly has a lot of room to grow and he did flash his potential, at times, toward the end of the season. But most of the time, he was really bad and looked 2 years away from being 1 year away. A PG with a 1.6 assist/turnover ratio is failing. His shooting was bad but his 82% FT shooting was encouraging. His 2nd season is his no-excuses season. He really needs to clean a lot of things up to have a shot at ascending to an elite player by his prime
Sharpe is an enigma. He certainly has flashed some elite talent a few times. But he never really delivers enough reality. Injuries haven't helped. My biggest worry with Sharpe is that he may bot be an alpha. Without those alpha genes, players don't become elite
one of Scoot or Shape will be behind Simons and be riding the bench. I know Simons fans say that doesn't matter, but I think it does
and yes, I agree that the Blazers very likely need at least a couple more top-5 draft picks. Their best path forward is to organically tank after dumping all the expensive veterans
I'm also a bit of a skeptic on Deni, but I do believe that he can be exactly what you mentioned--a super useful glue-guy.
A big issue I see, is that Deni suddenly thrived (apparently, if you go by the Bullets fans' opinions) when he was able to have the ball in his hands. I'm not sure given the coaching, system and roster the Blazers have in place that Deni is going to even get the chance to become elite.
The Blazers roster is currently very poorly constructed with Scoot, Ant, Sharpe, Grant, Ayton and now Deni, who all need the ball in their hands to be their most effective selves. Sharpe can exist without the ball as a cutter and play finisher, but that's not why the Blazers drafted him--they drafted him for his ceiling as an Alpha scorer with the ball in his hands.
I think that Deni will certainly help Scoot as a secondary facilitator--something this team desperately needs, but again--how Ant, Sharpe, Grant and Ayton respond to that facilitation is going to affect Deni's outcomes. Certainly system will have a massive impact on it as well...
All that to be said, I still think given his contract it was a good trade. I'm a bit worried about his resigning when that bridge needs to be crossed. That is really the only advantage I see for keeping the 14th pick in this year's draft and getting someone like DaSilva.
All it means is that this roster shouldn't be there for long, and right way to go for Portland now is: to trade Grant for future assets ASAP (the sooner is better - ideally before season starts), then probably trade SImmons at deadline too, and as Clingan gets comfortable in the league move from Ayton also.
Then they'll have Scoot as 1 , Sharpe as finisher and overall scorer at 2 , Deni as playmaking wing /secondary creator/ wing stopper at 3, Camara (or whoever better they draft or bring in trades) at 4, and Clingan as rim protector and smart big with touch and passing abilities on offense at 5.
And as usual - as rebuild proceeds whoever is not performing well enough will be traded or relegated to smaller roles and replaced by new acquisitions.
Now as Israeli "Deni's stan" I can only try to explain why in his case "producing on bad team" narrative has least possible connection to reality for any player which well... produced on bad team. But on other hand the question of his usage is actually relevant, and if you're not going to use him as playmaking wing but plant him in the corner as 3&D - you probably just shouldn't give for him 2 FRP and other assets, but if you're using him correctly: this trade may became hugely great bargain trade getting your (as future contender team) say... 3rd best player for cheap.
Now. Here's explanation.
There're known prototypes of players putting big stats on bad team.
First, guys which shot huge amount of bad shots with ridiculously high for their scoring abilities usage like Evan Turner, Nick Young and so on. Deni didn't get really high usage for most of year, and he was efficient.
Some guys on bad teams don't play defense at all (or can't play defense in any case) but Deni was probably the best defender on Wizards both when they were mediocre team and when they were horrible. Deni's on/off per 100 poss. was +6.9 this season, while other starters had -4.7 - Kuzma, -5.4 - Poole and even -6.1 - Tyus Jones.
Sure, there are certainly some guys which just randomly get good year together with more chances to show themselves on bad team, and it may be the case. The story is - for more than 3 years Wizards sadly did everything and then a bit more to ensure that Deni wouldn't be able to reach his potential.
They stuck and forgot him in the corner his rookie year when Russ + Beal run as historically (or more hysterically) high-usage (and pretty dumb) offensive back-court. Then he had to became full time defensive stopper to stay in rotation second year when they brought 2 starting forwards in trade, and drafted another wing. 3rd year coaching was just... incoherent, and in second half of 4th after finally they installed coach which started to actually use him correctly... they traded him. It's sad for me as I was really hoping he will prove his worth while playing for the team which drafted him - but he could be much better already if he was drafted by those who were interested in developing players.
Here's what important to understand Avdija's game transformation over his NBA career and especially last year:
Year by year part of 3PA among all FGA was decreasing: 53.8% -> 44.7% -> 40.1% -> 29.3%
Part of FGA at rim (less than 3ft) went in opposite direction: 14.4% -> 22.1% -> 27.8% -> 33.6%
USG% increased between 1nd & 2nd, and then 3rd & 4th seasons: 12.0% -> 16.3% -> 16.7% -> 20.2%
More unassisted FGM every year FGM %UAST: 17.7% -> 29.6% -> 35.2% -> 36.9%
Drew more fouls each year - FTr (FTA per FGA) : .144 -> .235 -> .285 -> .340
And his TS% went up just as usage went up: 51.5% -> 53.6% -> 53.5% -> 59.7%
Deni is not 3&D player. Employing him as low usage 3&D player (as Wizards did his rookie season) is very bad idea. He is playmaking wing which needs ball in his hands as secondary creator in order to be efficient.
Avdija's main ability is getting to the basket, and scoring inside which are based on rare combination of size, quickness, strength, high BBIQ and good enough skills. Certainly improvement in 3P% last season helped to unlock his driving compelling defenders to respect his shot. But shooting is secondary feature in his scoring comparing to driving, finishing and drawing fouls.
