Roy Hibbert - Indy says they will match/offer same terms.

[PDXKnight]

I hated that draft pick. I don't think he'll be anything more than a fringe 7th or 8th man in his prime in the likes of Sebastian Telfair. So yes, I would offer Dragic 4/ 40. Also even if he does pan out, you're trusting a rookie PG to take you to the playoffs. How many rookie PG's have done that? Not many... The fatal flaw here is we're still in the predicament we were in before: we don't have a primary ball handler. Without that individual, Portland could very well wast Aldridge's career. Dragic is a better overall player than Hibbert imo. Lillard should have been the number 10 pick or lower, frankly I think he winds up as the 20th best player in this draft.

Lillard = Sebastian Telfair? Dragic better player than a 7'2 allstar center who is a monster at protecting the rim besides other things?

Come on son...

I'm sorry I don't understand how that is such a ridiculous statement. Hibbert a monster? 12/9 isn't monster material. Its good stats but I think yet again he's being overrated here if you think he's a top 5 center (which max money would indicate).

[PDXKnight]

Signing Dragic for the price he's asking for isn't a "you don't think Lillard can start this season" move. It's an "you don't think Lillard will be able to start during the entire length of his rookie contract" move. I don't think for a second Olshey is thinking that way.

It might not be how he's thinking but considering what I highly expect LIllard to do 1) I think Oshley made a terrible mistake on draft day and 2) Dragic would be better than nothing, which is essentially what we have in my book. I don't consider Lillard anything more than a vet minimum player getting paid 4 times as much. In fact, I'd trade him for a trade exception if I were gm, he's an absolute waste of a pick as far as I'm concerned, but then again we're all entitled to our opion. That said mine is based on the fact that he has no speed, relies on his jump shot, and can't create as well as he seems to think he can. Lillard was overrated by a few teams and Portland suddenly thought passing up on one of the top 5 decent players in the draft was worth it. I will stand by my team but if I wasn't such a good fan I'd abandon the Blazers after that cruddy pick at 6.

Billups was signed knowing he was nothing but a backup and an insurance contract in case Paul were injured yet again. Billups was also only signed to a one year deal. Neither of those scenarios fit for Dragic.

If we want the BPA we'd go with Dragic. 12/9 is nothing compared to a guy capable of putting up 17/ 9 in my book. Considering what he did once he got the starting job I don't think that's too out of the question. Frankly I think his ceiling is higher than Hibbert's too. Roy is just another overhyped big man that quite frankly, Indy will match. He's a waste of our time and to go towards a UFA like Dragic would be far more productive imo.

[PDXKnight]

And just as I typed that last one I saw that Dragic only went 30 mil for 4 seasons. Seems like we lost out big time...

[mojomarc]

I'm sorry I don't understand how that is such a ridiculous statement. Hibbert a monster? 12/9 isn't monster material. Its good stats but I think yet again he's being overrated here if you think he's a top 5 center (which max money would indicate).

Tyson Chandler was a third team all-NBA player last year. On a PER36 and advanced stat basis, here's how they compare:

Chandler: 12.2pts 1.6 blks 10.7reb .679FG% (6.2 FGA/game) 130 ORtg 99 DRtg 18.7 PER 13 USG% 17.1 TOV%

Hibbert: 15.5pts 2.4blks 10.6reb .497FG% (12.4 FGA/game) 109 ORtg 101 DRtg 19.3 PER 21.1 USG% 14.2 TOV%

The only place where Chandler really has an advantage is FG% (which shows up in his ORtg as well), but given that he's doing that on half the attempts and close to half the usage rate, it should be pretty obvious that the offense isn't exactly running through Chandler and he's mostly getting his shots on tip ins and similar plays instead of being asked to actually make offensive plays. Other than that, Hibbert has a higher PER, turns the ball over less, can have offense run through him, has more blocks, and is pretty much a wash on defensive rating. Oh, and he's 25.

You can argue that a player is top 5 or top 7 or top 3, and in the end that doesn't matter that much. What matters is that Hibbert is definitely in the top tier of non-superstar centers in the NBA, and he's the only one who is available. That alone means you're going to pay above the rate for other less rare talent positions for a given amount of statistical production. If you want to play a PF at C, then Hibbert is not worth the money. If you want a true center and don't want LMA playing only 50 games per season from here on out because he can't take the beating against true centers, then you make a play for a guy like Hibbert.

[Agenda42]

I'm sorry I don't understand how that is such a ridiculous statement. Hibbert a monster? 12/9 isn't monster material. Its good stats but I think yet again he's being overrated here if you think he's a top 5 center (which max money would indicate).

The max has never been this small before. There should be significantly more than 5 centers making max money, and probably 40-50 players leaguewide making 58/4 or more based on he current salary floor and cap.

Hibbert max is a mild overpay, similar to how Matthews MLE was a mild overpay. There's every reason to think it works out well in comparison to the other center contracts that will be active next season.

[GeraldWallace3]

Signing Dragic for the price he's asking for isn't a "you don't think Lillard can start this season" move. It's an "you don't think Lillard will be able to start during the entire length of his rookie contract" move. I don't think for a second Olshey is thinking that way.

It might not be how he's thinking but considering what I highly expect LIllard to do 1) I think Oshley made a terrible mistake on draft day and 2) Dragic would be better than nothing, which is essentially what we have in my book. I don't consider Lillard anything more than a vet minimum player getting paid 4 times as much. In fact, I'd trade him for a trade exception if I were gm, he's an absolute waste of a pick as far as I'm concerned, but then again we're all entitled to our opion. That said mine is based on the fact that he has no speed, relies on his jump shot, and can't create as well as he seems to think he can. Lillard was overrated by a few teams and Portland suddenly thought passing up on one of the top 5 decent players in the draft was worth it. I will stand by my team but if I wasn't such a good fan I'd abandon the Blazers after that cruddy pick at 6.

Billups was signed knowing he was nothing but a backup and an insurance contract in case Paul were injured yet again. Billups was also only signed to a one year deal. Neither of those scenarios fit for Dragic.

If we want the BPA we'd go with Dragic. 12/9 is nothing compared to a guy capable of putting up 17/ 9 in my book. Considering what he did once he got the starting job I don't think that's too out of the question. Frankly I think his ceiling is higher than Hibbert's too. Roy is just another overhyped big man that quite frankly, Indy will match. He's a waste of our time and to go towards a UFA like Dragic would be far more productive imo.

Good thing you aren't the gm then, sheesh. There is a reason why he was projected to go high, and you are grossly ignoring his skills. He has plenty of speed, that jumpshot that he "relies on too much" is almost automatic, he has great defensive potential, he can finish well and he can pass the ball, regardless of the opinion of naysayers

[PDXKnight]

To those who think I'm ragging on this signing, I'm merely making some points that some of you haven't brought up for the purpose of discussion. This thread needs more subjectivity for the sake of discussion it seems.

First of all, per 36 is an irrelevant stat to me. Show me what they've done not what they 'could' do. I understand he'll do more with more minutes, but perhaps not Chandler level production. To pay someone based on that is going a bit far.

Mild overpay? Hibbert is a 10 million dollar player in my book. That's a massive overpay. I think people are high on Hibbert coming off a playoff run. Do I get that he played well? Yes. Is he worth THIS much? Arguably. Its hard to justify paying this much for a guy who in my book is being vastly overrated in nba circles right now. Recall the moneyball technique? I think it applies to the Blazers here.

Good thing I'm not GM? Seems like an attack on me. I'm not gonna justify that with a response.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm sorry I don't understand how that is such a ridiculous statement. Hibbert a monster? 12/9 isn't monster material. Its good stats but I think yet again he's being overrated here if you think he's a top 5 center (which max money would indicate).

The max has never been this small before. There should be significantly more than 5 centers making max money, and probably 40-50 players leaguewide making 58/4 or more based on he current salary floor and cap.

Hibbert max is a mild overpay, similar to how Matthews MLE was a mild overpay. There's every reason to think it works out well in comparison to the other center contracts that will be active next season.

not only is the max low, those 4.5% step raises keep the contract's future salary low too

which unfortunately is the reason that Indiana almost certainly will match

Olshey did say something like he didn't want the team to "get pregnant" with mid level contracts on players that weren't going to take the Blazers anywhere of note. I guess that would have eliminated Dragic and Hawes from consideration, although I'd say Dragic at 7.5 mlillion/yr and Hawes at 6.5 million are both decent deals

by the way, I still don't know how teams are getting to the 58 million dollar number for those max deals. If you start at the listed max, 12.922 million, you only get to 55 million. I gues maybe they are anticipating a 61 million cap

[Wizenheimer]

It's pretty ridiculous how this thread is turning into a hate on oden2 thread. I'm merely making some points that some of you haven't brought up for the purpose of discussion..

I'd say the reason you're getting some "hate" is because you won't drop the Lillard criticisms.

There was a ridiculous overreaction to the Lillard selection on draft day that I think turned a lot of us off and lose patience with people hammering away on Lillard. And I was not a big fan of the pick myself.

Even though I'm not convinced that he was the best choice, at this point, you have to begin disregarding his college numbers and simply allow Lillard to prove or disprove that he's a starting-level NBA PG

[PDXKnight]

It's pretty ridiculous how this thread is turning into a hate on oden2 thread. I'm merely making some points that some of you haven't brought up for the purpose of discussion..

I'd say the reason you're getting some "hate" is because you won't drop the Lillard criticisms.

There was a ridiculous overreaction to the Lillard selection on draft day that I think turned a lot of us off and lose patience with people hammering away on Lillard. And I was not a big fan of the pick myself.

Even though I'm not convinced that he was the best choice, at this point, you have to begin disregarding his college numbers and simply allow Lillard to prove or disprove that he's a starting-level NBA PG

I have every right to be subjective considering that Lillard was very low on my board. I suppose I am spouting a lot b/c I want to give a few 'i told you so's' once Lillard doesn't pan out.

And his college numbers weren't my issue, I thought they were great. I just don't see NBA caliber athleticism. He should have been a late first round pick but he got picked early due to his position it would seem.

[Effigy]

Olshey did say something like he didn't want the team to "get pregnant" with mid level contracts on players that weren't going to take the Blazers anywhere of note. I guess that would have eliminated Dragic and Hawes from consideration, although I'd say Dragic at 7.5 mlillion/yr and Hawes at 6.5 million are both decent deals

Well if that's true, then we won't match Batum. I hope we don't.

[crazylegshayes]

It's pretty ridiculous how this thread is turning into a hate on oden2 thread. I'm merely making some points that some of you haven't brought up for the purpose of discussion..

I'd say the reason you're getting some "hate" is because you won't drop the Lillard criticisms.

There was a ridiculous overreaction to the Lillard selection on draft day that I think turned a lot of us off and lose patience with people hammering away on Lillard. And I was not a big fan of the pick myself.

Even though I'm not convinced that he was the best choice, at this point, you have to begin disregarding his college numbers and simply allow Lillard to prove or disprove that he's a starting-level NBA PG

I have every right to be subjective considering that Lillard was very low on my board. I suppose I am spouting a lot b/c I want to give a few 'i told you so's' once Lillard doesn't pan out.

And his college numbers weren't my issue, I thought they were great. I just don't see NBA caliber athleticism. He should have been a late first round pick but he got picked early due to his position it would seem.

So then you won't have a problem eating your foot when he does pan out?! It's hilarious to me how many posters on this board think they can do a better job being a GM than the guy who is getting paid millions by an nba team.

I'm gonna go on record (albeit with about 1/10 the number of posts) that Lillard will be a fine starting pg for the Blazers. Almost all the gms said there are no stars in this draft after Davis, but plenty of good players. So for what we expect Lillard to be, I think he will deliver.

[PDXKnight]

I'd say the reason you're getting some "hate" is because you won't drop the Lillard criticisms.

There was a ridiculous overreaction to the Lillard selection on draft day that I think turned a lot of us off and lose patience with people hammering away on Lillard. And I was not a big fan of the pick myself.

Even though I'm not convinced that he was the best choice, at this point, you have to begin disregarding his college numbers and simply allow Lillard to prove or disprove that he's a starting-level NBA PG

I have every right to be subjective considering that Lillard was very low on my board. I suppose I am spouting a lot b/c I want to give a few 'i told you so's' once Lillard doesn't pan out.

And his college numbers weren't my issue, I thought they were great. I just don't see NBA caliber athleticism. He should have been a late first round pick but he got picked early due to his position it would seem.

So then you won't have a problem eating your foot when he does pan out?! It's hilarious to me how many posters on this board think they can do a better job being a GM than the guy who is getting paid millions by an nba team.

I'm gonna go on record (albeit with about 1/10 the number of posts) that Lillard will be a fine starting pg for the Blazers. Almost all the gms said there are no stars in this draft after Davis, but plenty of good players. So for what we expect Lillard to be, I think he will deliver.

You're entitled to your opinion. I'm interested to see if he materializes though I'm not gonna change my opinion on the pick now that he's a Blazer. You could very well be right, but then again so could I.

[DusterBuster]

I find it funny how people think they can judge a draft pick in ANY way, positive or negative, before they've played a single NBA game. Some guys who were mediocre or not highly thought of in college can end up being great NBA players, some guys who were 4 star recruits and a lock for a Top 4 pick their whole college career end up laying a big stinky turd on the NBA level.

The bottom line is this: THE DRAFT IS A CRAPSHOOT!

There are so many IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE factors that weigh into whether a player can translate from college to the NBA, it's why even the best of GM's can flub on a high lottery pick and terrible GM's can end up looking like geniuses by getting a guy that ends up fitting their team and situation perfectly.

We won't know how Lillard is going to be as a pro until he plays some games, and even then, we still may not have a good idea until he's into his 2nd or 3rd year, particularly with PG's.

Seriously people, have some freaking patience.

[crazylegshayes]

So then you won't have a problem eating your foot when he does pan out?! It's hilarious to me how many posters on this board think they can do a better job being a GM than the guy who is getting paid millions by an nba team.

I'm gonna go on record (albeit with about 1/10 the number of posts) that Lillard will be a fine starting pg for the Blazers. Almost all the gms said there are no stars in this draft after Davis, but plenty of good players. So for what we expect Lillard to be, I think he will deliver.[/quote]

You're entitled to your opinion. I'm interested to see if he materializes though I'm not gonna change my opinion on the pick now that he's a Blazer. You could very well be right, but then again so could I. [/quote]

I think we are both hoping I am right! I think he will be a good pg, not great.

[PDXKnight]

I think we are both hoping I am right!

Undoubtedly. In this case I wouldn't mind eating my words.

[DusterBuster]

Interesting article from Indy about the situation Walch/Pritchard are in with matching Hibbert's deal....

http://www.foxsportsmidwest.com/07/05/1 ... kID=756614

No real new news, nor does the article lean one way or another, but interesting nevertheless.

[Caravaggio]

I got quite a few responses but to answer them in a nutshell, I don't think you guys took the right thing from my post. I was mainly attempting to bring some form of subjectivity to the argument considering that it seems about 95 percent of you are gung ho sold on Hibbert. Would I like him? Yes. Are there other bigs who cost less and produce equal or more? Yes. (Gortat, Horford, ALDRIDGE, Garnett, Noah,Chandler, Faried, Monroe, Bogut, Lee, Griffin, Marc Gasol, Pekovich?, Cousins, Tim Duncan (likely going to make less), Ibaka, Favors?, Nene)

What an absolutely ridiculous post. Did you put any thought into what you were typing at all? You're seriously comparing Faried and Lee and a bunch of other guys who ARE NOT FREE AGENTS to the 7'3 Hibbert? WTF does it matter if there are other guys with more value if they aren't available to Portland? And you list a player we already have? What is your angle? It makes zero sense to compare the vast majority of players on your list to Hibbert.

You deserve any heat you take for a number of poorly thought out statements.

Al Horford: FIVE YEARS LEFT ON HIS CONTRACT
Garnett: Are you living under a rock? He's 36 and already signed with Boston
Tim Duncan: Again, he's OLD, and why the hell would he leave San Antonio for Portland??
Gortat: NOT A FREE AGENT
Noah: See: Al Horford
Ibaka: Again, NOT A FREE AGENT
Faried: Seriously? He's 6'8 and....NOT A FREE AGENT
Lee: As if listing a 6'8 guy in Faried wasn't a complete joke, you seriously go with David Lee to compare to Hibbert? Just nonsense. Oh, and he's not a free agent either.
Alrdidge: durrrr, WE ALREADY HAVE HIM
Monroe: NOT A FREE AGENT. Sensing a theme here, fella?
Bogut: Guess what? NOT A FREE AGENT
Favors: Durrr NOT A FREE AGENT
Nene: Not a freaking free agent dude.
Chandler: Take a wild guess...

So please explain to the rest of us the point of listing all those guys in your post? Let's hear it. Because you obviously know more about this than the rest of us, nevermind that the entire game plan for Portland has been to spend CAP SPACE on a FREE AGENT.

[JasonStern]

Interesting article from Indy about the situation Walch/Pritchard are in with matching Hibbert's deal....

http://www.foxsportsmidwest.com/07/05/1 ... kID=756614

No real new news, nor does the article lean one way or another, but interesting nevertheless.

so you're saying indiana is the new utah, and that pacer fans should expect "toxic" offers to david west next year and paul george the year after?

[Caravaggio]

First of all, per 36 is an irrelevant stat to me. Show me what they've done not what they 'could' do. I understand he'll do more with more minutes, but perhaps not Chandler level production. To pay someone based on that is going a bit far.

Yet you're all up in Dragic's jock? You continually contradict yourself and demonstrate your complete and utter lack of knowledge.

I wasn't such a good fan I'd abandon the Blazers after that cruddy pick at 6.

LOLOL!! Now that is rich!

Tell us more about how Lillard isn't an NBA athlete and how you're such a good fan.