The NBENFANT Thread (NBA): 2023-2024 Edition!

[JasonStern]

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[JasonStern]

Read on Twitter

https://ripcityproject.com/2017/08/18/damian-lillard-wins-teammate-year-blazers/

[Shem]

Watch on YouTube

[JasonStern]

Western Conference Win Totals (per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook):
GS 67.5
SA 54.5
Hou 55.5
OKC 51.5
Min 48.5
Den 45.5
LAC 43.5
Por 42.5
Utah 40.5
NO 39.5
Mem 37.5
Dal 35.5
LAL 33.5
Sac 28.5
Phx 28.5

POR looks about right to me (42.5-39.5, 8th seed, yet another post-season Warriors beatdown)

[tacos]

Western Conference Win Totals (per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook):
GS 67.5
SA 54.5
Hou 55.5
OKC 51.5
Min 48.5
Den 45.5
LAC 43.5
Por 42.5
Utah 40.5
NO 39.5
Mem 37.5
Dal 35.5
LAL 33.5
Sac 28.5
Phx 28.5

POR looks about right to me (42.5-39.5, 8th seed, yet another post-season Warriors beatdown)

Not according to my Kool-Aid

[JasonStern]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2729272-broken-hoop-dreams-where-did-it-go-wrong-for-former-phenom-sebastian-telfair

[Wizenheimer]

Western Conference Win Totals (per Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook):
GS 67.5
SA 54.5
Hou 55.5
OKC 51.5
Min 48.5
Den 45.5
LAC 43.5
Por 42.5
Utah 40.5
NO 39.5
Mem 37.5
Dal 35.5
LAL 33.5
Sac 28.5
Phx 28.5

POR looks about right to me (42.5-39.5, 8th seed, yet another post-season Warriors beatdown)

probably 1-4 are about right

but when is gets to 5-11....my oh my there's a lot that could go right or wrong for all 7 teams. I'm inclined to think Minny is too high and Memphis is too low, although I'd agree the Griz are skating on very thin ice

[GreenRiddler]

I think we clear 50. A lot of teams in the west are weaker than people think. We finally have a soft start to our schedule so we don't have to climb up hill 3 years in a row.

We are easily better than Den, LACs and Miny needs a year before they are ever considered a playoff lock let alone a 5th seed. The first 4 are rock solid unless injuries happen I see us right there at 5/6. New Orleans could be a surprise. Also I don't think CP3 and Harden will work, and Hou is 1 year off of being a dumpster fire. May have a better record than us but like the cp3 Clippers can't say they will get farther than us.

[Masterfully]

I think we clear 50. A lot of teams in the west are weaker than people think. We finally have a soft start to our schedule so we don't have to climb up hill 3 years in a row.

We are easily better than Den, LACs and Miny needs a year before they are ever considered a playoff lock let alone a 5th seed. The first 4 are rock solid unless injuries happen I see us right there at 5/6. New Orleans could be a surprise. Also I don't think CP3 and Harden will work, and Hou is 1 year off of being a dumpster fire. May have a better record than us but like the cp3 Clippers can't say they will get farther than us.

If Damian, CJ and Nurk are healthy and the Blazers don't "clear 50" then it should be time to pull the plug on this backcourt experiment.

[zzaj]

I think we clear 50. A lot of teams in the west are weaker than people think. We finally have a soft start to our schedule so we don't have to climb up hill 3 years in a row.

We are easily better than Den, LACs and Miny needs a year before they are ever considered a playoff lock let alone a 5th seed. The first 4 are rock solid unless injuries happen I see us right there at 5/6. New Orleans could be a surprise. Also I don't think CP3 and Harden will work, and Hou is 1 year off of being a dumpster fire. May have a better record than us but like the cp3 Clippers can't say they will get farther than us.

I also think Houston is going to be a lot worse than people project. Part of the reason the Clippers played well is that the team had great balance. Houston is now about as unbalanced a team as I can think of. Hou has a better backcourt than Portland, but at least Portland has Nurkic to help offset the frontcourt. I expect OKC to be better than Houston because they actually HELPED their balance by adding Paul George.

[Wizenheimer]

I just looked back and over the last 5 years, the average number of teams that won over 50 games was a shade under 8. About 26% of the teams.

in other words, hitting that mark would make a team in the top 1/4 of the league. I have a hard time seeing this Blazer team reaching that plateau. Crabbe wasn't that good a player but he was a dependable safety valve in catch and shoot situations....those kinds of situations that the Stotts offense thrives on. Giving Crabbe's shots to Turner, Harkless, and Aminu is going to chip a lot of paint off the rims.

Assuming good health, Nurkic should compensate for the loss of Crabbe, but if you go by winshares/48 last season, Crabbe was good for 4.2 wins while Nurkic, with a full season, would be good for 5.5 wins. That would leave Portland at +1.3...call it 2. 43 wins then (which may be how Vegas is coming up with 42.5 wins). Obviously, there are a ton of variables at work that could torpedo that winshare math. But, Portland did only win 41 games last season...that was with 79 games of Crabbe and 20 for Nurkic. Blazers lost something and will hopefully gain a little more. Don't think it will be enough to hit 50 though

I also think Houston is going to be a lot worse than people project. Part of the reason the Clippers played well is that the team had great balance. Houston is now about as unbalanced a team as I can think of. Hou has a better backcourt than Portland, but at least Portland has Nurkic to help offset the frontcourt. I expect OKC to be better than Houston because they actually HELPED their balance by adding Paul George.

I'm not sure Houston is going to be as bad as you think.

their guard play will be dominating with Harden, Paul, & Gordon

their wings will be strong as well with Ariza & PJ Tucker

their bigs are versatile...Capela, Nene, and Black can all play C or PF. And they have Ryan Anderson for offense and Mbah a Moute for defense to run in the stretch-4 position and small ball lineups

that seems like decent balance to me, but what they don't have is any established depth. Like a lot of Western teams, if they have any crucial injury, they'll sink fast

[Downtown]

I also don't think they will hit 50 wins. I don't see the improvement roster wise. But Olshey has kept it in tact hoping for a more seasoned group that will be more experienced together. And if you want to factor in a whole season with the Nurkic we saw last season then I can see more wins, but not that huge of a leap. And the West got better overall so that's a factor.

Getting off to a really good start rather than doing the usual wait until the last part of the season and get into the playoffs that way is going to be a key in my opinion. IF they can stay healthy, especially Nurkic, then 47-48 wins is about where I see them.

Memphis is the one team I see slipping a fair amount but every year they surprise me. I think the Clippers will slip but not as much as some think. But Minnesota on paper looks to be better. I can once again see a battle with Utah and Denver and since we play them a bit more being in the same division those extra games, along with games against Minnesota will be key.

[JasonStern]

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could be a solid Olshey dumpster dive move...

[Downtown]

There's nothing to lose with that.

[zzaj]

Archie Goodwin isn't an NBA level player, despite all the Kobe/TMac comparisons back in HS. Quite the replacement for Crabbe

[JasonStern]

Read on Twitter

[JasonStern]

Lillard comes in at #17 on Sports Illustrated's top 100 players:

https://www.si.com/nba/2017/09/13/top-100-nba-players-2018-kyrie-irving-john-wall-damian-lillard

I'd have him ahead of Hayward, but overall somewhere in the 15-20 range sounds about right.

CJ McCollum also comes in at #39:

https://www.si.com/nba/2017/09/12/top-100-nba-players-2018-carmelo-anthony-demar-derozan-joel-embiid

...and Jusuf Nurkić at #69:

https://www.si.com/nba/2017/09/12/top-100-nba-players-2018-dwyane-wade-dirk-nowitzki-dwight-howard

[Masterfully]

Do you guys realize that the NBA preseason starts THIS month?!

[GreenRiddler]

I think we clear 50. A lot of teams in the west are weaker than people think. We finally have a soft start to our schedule so we don't have to climb up hill 3 years in a row.

We are easily better than Den, LACs and Miny needs a year before they are ever considered a playoff lock let alone a 5th seed. The first 4 are rock solid unless injuries happen I see us right there at 5/6. New Orleans could be a surprise. Also I don't think CP3 and Harden will work, and Hou is 1 year off of being a dumpster fire. May have a better record than us but like the cp3 Clippers can't say they will get farther than us.

If Damian, CJ and Nurk are healthy and the Blazers don't "clear 50" then it should be time to pull the plug on this backcourt experiment.

Nope, if we dont clear 50 everybody but the backcourt will be on "pull the plug notice." I don't understand why people blame the 2 best players we have because players #3-15 suck ass. That is why we sucked so much, our 3rd best player before Nurk came here isn't a starter on 20 other NBA teams! Dame and CJ are top 20 players. Believe me when they are not on this team it will be because they want to be somewhere else ala Durant, not us wanting them gone.

[GreenRiddler]

I am glad to See Den double down on Plumlee. Their interior defense is going anywhere but up with that trio. Sunk cost theory strikes again. Also another appreciation that we turned an expiring Plumlee who we wouldn't resign into Nurk (probably a top 5 player at his position by year end) and the pick we combined with our own to get Zach Collins, who could be a very good player in 2 years.