No Ceilings - Draft Notes
https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/2025-nba-draft-editors-notes-volume-ed3?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=536361&post_id=161330707&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1f5gb9&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=emailLiam McNeeley...did not look like the same player once he returned in February...His sample size of three-point shooting over the course of a full college season is limited enough that it’s difficult to draw firm conclusions; even the best shooters at the NBA level will have months-long (or even seasons-long) shooting slumps. Combine that with his injury, and I’m more willing to trust the sample size of the first half of McNeeley’s bifurcated season than the second half...McNeeley has parking lot range on his triples. Also, he’s far more than just a standstill threat. McNeeley is frequently in motion trying to get himself open off screens, and he’s a great trail shooter in transition. Add in his connective passing, and there’s a lot to like offensively, even if the overall shooting splits are disappointing...adept at operating as a part of a defensive scheme...I would be surprised if he’s not at least decent on that end of the floor at the NBA level. His lack of defensive playmaking is concerning to me, though; McNeeley averaged just 0.6 steals and 0.2 blocks per game this season, and those numbers tend to translate more directly to the NBA level than any of the other main box score stats.
The most troubling part of his profile for me is his finishing at the rim. McNeeley shot just 45.6% at the rim this season, per Synergy, which puts him in just the 12th percentile. If he were an undersized shooting guard, I might be more willing to excuse that poor mark, but it’s hard for me to wrap my mind around a 6’7” forward with an NBA-ready frame being that bad around the basket...somehow worse at shooting jumpers off the dribble...His complementary shooting, pick-and-roll prowess, and general connective passing are certainly helpful, but it’s hard for me to imagine him having much on-ball juice to tap into when factoring in his terrible finishing numbers and hideous off-the-dribble shooting. McNeeley can make the right pass if he’s forced off the three-point line, and that shouldn’t go underrated. I’m just struggling to figure out what else he’ll be able to do when teams take away the shot.
He’s a good catch-and-shoot threat with a great-looking shot who got cold at the wrong time in the wake of an injury—he’s also a terrible at-rim finisher and an even worse shooter off the dribble. He’s a solid defensive piece with size on the wing, but he’s not a defensive playmaker at all. He’s a good connective passer who makes the right reads most of the time, but he doesn’t have any of the ancillary skills that would lead me to believe he has more on-ball juice in him...I have McNeeley at the tail end of my lottery...I believe in his shot both as a catch-and-shoot threat and as a shooter running off screens and movement. I believe in his ability to be a secondary or tertiary creator, and I believe he can be an above-average defender in most schemes.
Pretty much everything else about his game concerns me, though. If his greatest strengths weren’t in areas that are being valued more and more in the modern NBA, I would be very willing to sell off my stock in Liam McNeeley. As it is, I’m holding firm on his stock, but doing so makes me more uncomfortable than I would like.
Hugo GonzalezDespite Gonzalez’s talents, he has played limited minutes for Real Madrid this season. That isn’t exactly atypical for a teenager playing in one of the best professional leagues in the world. The real difference is that Gonzalez is not losing out on minutes due to poor defense or feel, like many young players—he’s only seeing the court in limited minutes because Real Madrid is ridiculously stacked this year, even by their own exceptionally high standards.
...the place to start with Gonzalez is his defense. He has a sturdy 6’6”, 207-pound frame that has held up in one of the best professional leagues in the world, and his screen navigation defensively is up there with the best players in the class. He’s not a superlative defensive playmaker, but he does make plays in the passing lanes and can rise up for the occasional highlight-reel block. On the offensive end, he is a sensational cutter; Gonzalez averages an absurd 1.65 points per possession on cuts, which ranks in the 97th percentile per Synergy...I would be more willing to be all-in on Gonzalez if he were as ready on the “3” portion of 3-and-D as he was on the “D” part. Gonzalez is shooting just 28.1% from three-point range, which is actually an improvement from his 24.1% mark last season. The shot itself looks good, and his free-throw numbers (73.9% from the line this year and 82.0% last season) indicate that his touch is probably better than his three-point percentage implies.
I’m impressed enough by his defensive acumen that I would be willing to take the bet on Gonzalez figuring out his shot. He’ll make defenses pay with his cutting if they abandon him completely beyond the arc, and he’s clearly already comfortable with playing a smaller role around elite talent on both ends of the floor. If he ends up going to a good team with a good shot doctor, he could be a key NBA rotation cog for many years to come.
Will Riley...some very high highs and very low lows...one of the best shot creators in the draft, with the ability at 6’8” to shoot over most people. He has an excellent handle to help him get to his spots, and he’s a scoring threat at all three levels when he gets to those spots. Riley ranks in the 90th percentile as an isolation scorer per Synergy, and it’s not hard to see why when breaking down the film...is a solid and willing passer. His assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.86 is a nice high-level indicator of that, but the film is even more impressive. Riley doesn’t just make the easy passes—he frequently makes difficult cross-court reads and has an excellent grasp of when to continue to hunt his matchups versus when to give his teammates a window to attack
...elephant in the room with Riley is his frame, which impacts him far more defensively than offensively. I was worried about Riley when he decided to reclassify before the start of the season because he was (and still is) incredibly skinny. Furthermore, he doesn’t have a wide enough frame for me to believe that he’ll be able to pull off a Giannis-esque (or even a Keegan Murray-esque) bulk-up. He’ll certainly add some degree of additional muscle in his future team’s weight and conditioning program, but I’m still concerned about him being pushed around defensively at the NBA level.
I’m still buying all the Riley stock that anyone is willing to sell...I think that Riley’s season overall was more indicative of his talent than his ice-cold stretch, which happened in December for Riley (28.2% from the floor, 13.0% from three-point range) and tanked his season-long shooting splits. Riley shot 61.3% at the rim in spite of his frame concerns. Quite frankly, in terms of the defense, it’s also a lot easier to hide a poor 6’8” defender like Riley than it is to hide a shorter player who struggles defensively.
Otega Oweh, 6'5 GOweh quietly made some serious improvements in key areas and showed much more consistency in really encouraging ways...actually improved his efficiency on two-pointers slightly year-over-year, from 52.0% to 52.2%, which are both solid marks for a guard...encouraging leap in terms of getting to the line and converting his free throws...three-point percentage regressed slightly...still shot a respectable 35.5% from deep this year on more attempts than last year...Oweh’s shooting this year feels a lot more sustainable. All of that resulted in Oweh ranking in the 85th percentile overall offensively, per Synergy...NBA case will still be carried by his defense. He’s an elite defensive playmaker, and he’s built like a fire hydrant at 6’5” and 210 pounds. The real question for Oweh was whether or not he would find enough ways to consistently contribute on the other end of the floor. In my mind, he’s checked that box pretty emphatically. He’ll probably end up being a second round flyer, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up making teams regret allowing him to fall off their radars after he went cold from distance last season.
Bogoljub Markovic 6'11...worried that he would be too much of a big man tweener defensively to make much of an NBA impact...watching Markovic show out at Nike Hoop Summit, though, I’ve changed my tune. It’s not that he looks small on film at all, but he looks MASSIVE in person. More importantly, he consistently made the right reads on both ends of the floor throughout Hoop Summit, and he was clearly one of Team World’s leaders when it came to defensive assignments and communicating overall...hard to overlook how much more impressive Markovic was in person than I’d expected. I’ve slotted him in to the end of the first round on my board for now, which feels about right. Even beyond my biases, it’s hard to deny any near-7-footer who can shoot like Markovic can...Despite how tall he is, he’s still rail-thin. If he ends up playing any minutes at center in the NBA, it will require either a massive weight gain or a REALLY tiny small-ball lineup for his opponent. That being said, his feel impressed me almost as much as anyone’s at Hoop Summit. With his size, feel, and shooting touch, I’m willing to bet on him figuring out a way to be productive enough offensively to earn playing time as he grows into his body and figures things out on the other end of the floor. It will probably take time for him to figure out the tweener 4/5 dynamic at the NBA level, but I’ve gone from a skeptic to a believer when it comes to Bogoljub Markovic.
