2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[Sinobas]

I hear Laker fans clamoring for a big man. Though thought they had one in Williams before that trade fell through.

I'd offer Ayton for a 1st and expirings. They can keep Knecht.

[BlazersBroncos]

I hear Laker fans clamoring for a big man. Though thought they had one in Williams before that trade fell through.

I'd offer Ayton for a 1st and expirings. They can keep Knecht.

I would be shocked if LAL traded one of their few future FRP for Ayton. I could see them moving Dalton for him potentially - albeit I am not super high on him.

Vincent + Kleber + Milton + Dalton + SRP for Ayton works. Buy out Milton.

Follow up w/ Simons for Cole + Goga + #24

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony / Gabe Vincent
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle / Nique Clifford (24)
F - Toumani Camara / Dalton Knetch / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Noa Essengue (10) / Maxi Kleber
C - Donovan Clingan / Goga Bitazde / Duop Reath

IR RWIII

Could live with that somewhat simple offseason.48 minutes of Clingan and Goga would be awesome to watch - Clingan +1.5 DBPM (As a rookie - should get even better) + Goga +2.8 DBPM - thats a nightmare defensive duo at C.

[zzaj]

I hear Laker fans clamoring for a big man. Though thought they had one in Williams before that trade fell through.

I'd offer Ayton for a 1st and expirings. They can keep Knecht.

I would be shocked if LAL traded one of their few future FRP for Ayton. I could see them moving Dalton for him potentially - albeit I am not super high on him.

Vincent + Kleber + Milton + Dalton + SRP for Ayton works. Buy out Milton.

Follow up w/ Simons for Cole + Goga + #24

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony / Gabe Vincent
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle / Nique Clifford (24)
F - Toumani Camara / Dalton Knetch / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Noa Essengue (10) / Maxi Kleber
C - Donovan Clingan / Goga Bitazde / Duop Reath

IR RWIII

Could live with that somewhat simple offseason.48 minutes of Clingan and Goga would be awesome to watch - Clingan +1.5 DBPM (As a rookie - should get even better) + Goga +2.8 DBPM - thats a nightmare defensive duo at C.

I really like the moves, but that puts the Blazers over the roster limit, no? No Murray in there and too many guaranteed contracts...

[BlazersBroncos]

I hear Laker fans clamoring for a big man. Though thought they had one in Williams before that trade fell through.

I'd offer Ayton for a 1st and expirings. They can keep Knecht.

I would be shocked if LAL traded one of their few future FRP for Ayton. I could see them moving Dalton for him potentially - albeit I am not super high on him.

Vincent + Kleber + Milton + Dalton + SRP for Ayton works. Buy out Milton.

Follow up w/ Simons for Cole + Goga + #24

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony / Gabe Vincent
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle / Nique Clifford (24)
F - Toumani Camara / Dalton Knetch / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Noa Essengue (10) / Maxi Kleber
C - Donovan Clingan / Goga Bitazde / Duop Reath

IR RWIII

Could live with that somewhat simple offseason.48 minutes of Clingan and Goga would be awesome to watch - Clingan +1.5 DBPM (As a rookie - should get even better) + Goga +2.8 DBPM - thats a nightmare defensive duo at C.

I really like the moves, but that puts the Blazers over the roster limit, no? No Murray in there and too many guaranteed contracts...

Murray can be added to the ORL trade. I would also try to move RWIII for Landale's unguaranteed deal and just be done with that saga.

[dckingsfan]

I like all the ideas, don't think any will come to fruition but it does tell you that there are potential deals out there...

[DusterBuster]

I like all the ideas, don't think any will come to fruition but it does tell you that there are potential deals out there...

This is always what my biggest frustration with Cronin is. Deals can always be made, but you have to be proactive. He seems so content to just let the deals come to him vs actually go out and make them happen.

[zzaj]

I would be shocked if LAL traded one of their few future FRP for Ayton. I could see them moving Dalton for him potentially - albeit I am not super high on him.

Vincent + Kleber + Milton + Dalton + SRP for Ayton works. Buy out Milton.

Follow up w/ Simons for Cole + Goga + #24

G - Scoot Henderson / Cole Anthony / Gabe Vincent
G - Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle / Nique Clifford (24)
F - Toumani Camara / Dalton Knetch / Rayan Rupert
F - Deni Avdija / Jerami Grant / Noa Essengue (10) / Maxi Kleber
C - Donovan Clingan / Goga Bitazde / Duop Reath

IR RWIII

Could live with that somewhat simple offseason.48 minutes of Clingan and Goga would be awesome to watch - Clingan +1.5 DBPM (As a rookie - should get even better) + Goga +2.8 DBPM - thats a nightmare defensive duo at C.

I really like the moves, but that puts the Blazers over the roster limit, no? No Murray in there and too many guaranteed contracts...

Murray can be added to the ORL trade. I would also try to move RWIII for Landale's unguaranteed deal and just be done with that saga.

That's still 16+ guaranteed contracts I think...would need to let all of Banton and Walker go, plus ditch all the two ways (not a problem) and then package Murray and one more player, I believe.

[Walton1one]

POR should be fine this year, however next year the problems start to arise, especially if Joe waffles this offseason\next deadline as he is prone to doing and has an eye towards resigning guys like Simons\Ayton and maybe even Williams & Thybulle. He cannot pay them all. Something has to give and I doubt Bert/Jodi give the ok to go into the luxury tax or 1st apron after next season for a maybe\maybe not playin\playoff team

Roster +$10 pick approx $172mil = that leaves RFA decision on Walker, team option on Rupert, guarantee option on Reath + UFA decision on Banton, and one of them has to go to make room for draft pick

Rupert\Reath are $4.4milcombined
Tax is $187
1st Apron is $200

Where it gets worse is next offseason:

26/27
Salary Cap: $170,112,000
[b]Luxury Tax: $206,687,000
1st Apron: $215,541,000
2nd Apron: $228,608,000[/b]

Let's assume:
Sharpe $35
Simons $30
Camara $25?
Deni $40? - There is a way to sign him early (note below, taken from BE)
Ayton $30?

That is $160mil for 5 players and that is not counting (26/27) Scoot @ $13.5, DC @ $7.5, 10th pick @ $6mil & Grant @ $34, and those numbers for Sharpe\Simons\Camara\Deni\Ayton are conservative at best, most likely some will be more, then you have Scoot RFA in 27/28 & DC in 28/29 whose new deals will likely outpace the increase in the luxury tax ($187/$200)

This is assuming they find a way to get rid of Grant for ALL expiring by next year, that is still $186mil for 8 players. Over the cap, $20mil below luxury tax (over the 1st apron if they have not divested from Grant or whatever they get in return by then), and they still need to sign a minimum of 5 players (13 player roster minimum) for less than $20mil (or less than $29 to stay under 1st apron).

If they don't lose their draft pick to CHI (let's say they are 12-14 range), that is another $5mil, now they are at $15mil for 4 players to stay under tax

All this mind you to keep the same team together (+ 2 draft picks) that was 10 games under .500 and hoping that internal improvement will lead them to playoff contender status.

RE: Deni

The CBA allows teams under the salary cap (the salary cap, not the tax threshold) to renegotiate contracts to pay players more (never less) salary, but only to the extent the team is under the salary cap.

So if the Blazers could get far enough under the salary cap they could renegotiate Deni's contract in October 2026 to pay him more in 2026-27 (and subsequently 2027-28), and a 140% (maximum) extension starting in 2028-29 could be signed at the same time (October 2026).

[Tim Lehrbach]

RE: Deni

The CBA allows teams under the salary cap (the salary cap, not the tax threshold) to renegotiate contracts to pay players more (never less) salary, but only to the extent the team is under the salary cap.

So if the Blazers could get far enough under the salary cap they could renegotiate Deni's contract in October 2026 to pay him more in 2026-27 (and subsequently 2027-28), and a 140% (maximum) extension starting in 2028-29 could be signed at the same time (October 2026).

Thanks for keeping this thought out there. I have said a few times that I think the Blazers might be smart to clear the deck by summer '26 to try to renegotiate and extend with Deni. Few are talking about it, and teams don't often dip into deep cap space anymore, but it's an option worth considering. Simons, Ayton, and Grant -- and probably Sharpe -- would be likely casualties of this plan.

[Tim Lehrbach]

Let's assume:
Sharpe $35
Simons $30
Camara $25?
Deni $40? - There is a way to sign him early (note below, taken from BE)
Ayton $30?

Please no.

[Walton1one]

Let's assume:
Sharpe $35
Simons $30
Camara $25?
Deni $40? - There is a way to sign him early (note below, taken from BE)
Ayton $30?

Please no.

I agree but Cronin could have other plans, the issue is, I doubt Vulcan let’s him go above the luxury tax\apron, meaning he can’t sign everyone no matter how much he may want to

[dckingsfan]

Let's assume:
Sharpe $35
Simons $30
Camara $25?
Deni $40? - There is a way to sign him early (note below, taken from BE)
Ayton $30?

Please no.

I agree but Cronin could have other plans, the issue is, I doubt Vulcan let’s him go above the luxury tax\apron, meaning he can’t sign everyone no matter how much he may want to

I think that in this new CBA, walking away from signing contracts to players like Simons is going to reward GMs in the league.

Another way to say it, "...don't be afraid to let a player walk unless they are truly and #1 or #2 or shmaybe a #3 option."

So, looking at our roster. Deni and Camara #2 & #3 but we have time to see if that is actually true. No one else on the roster fits that mold at this time. So you offer very reasonable contracts (from the perspective of the Blazers) that are declining and see who bites.

Those that leave are going to be very disappointed to see what is NOT out there. Simons and Ayton are in for a pay cut unless they massively breakout next season. Shape, just wait and see what is offered and match (if it is to the benefit of the Blazers).

[Sinobas]

I hope some good team that really needs a center will take Ayton in exchange for a lotto protected 1st and expirings. That way, we can give it to Chicago to satisfy the Nance deal. Problem is, if we don't make the playoffs by 2027 (but do in 2028), we lose our swap with the Bucks, which could be golden.

The Lakers need a big man, and have enough spare parts they probably don't care about to get Ayton.

[BlazersBroncos]

I hope some good team that really needs a center will take Ayton in exchange for a lotto protected 1st and expirings. That way, we can give it to Chicago to satisfy the Nance deal. Problem is, if we don't make the playoffs by 2027 (but do in 2028), we lose our swap with the Bucks, which could be golden.

The Lakers need a big man, and have enough spare parts they probably don't care about to get Ayton.

I would be floored if we could snag a FRP for Ayton - unless of course we take on a longer, crappier contract in the deal.

I think the best we could do w/ LAL is Dalton - and that would be fine w/ me - even if I think he is at best a 7th man type. Shooters, even bench shooters, are always worth something.

[Walton1one]

I think by now we should all err on the side of expecting inaction when it comes to Cronin making trades, let alone multiple trades.

As has been said before, Cronin does not have to make a major move with one of the vets this offseason (or at next year's trade deadline for that matter), in fact he only needs to make a minor move to open up a roster spot for the #10 pick, if they keep it.

That could be:

- Letting Banton\UFA walk
- Decline offering Walker a QO making him a UFA (they may do this even if they intend to keep him to save some money)
- Decline the team option on Rupert
- Waive Reath as his salary is non guaranteed (does not become guaranteed until 8/1)

All are relatively minor moves.

There are other factors that could come into play though:

- Thybulle could decline his option and become a FA, that would free up $11.5mil. BTW he gets a 15% bonus if he is traded
- Camara could be extended (per BE below)

Despite being signed for two more seasons, Camara is extension-eligible after being signed to a four-year deal by the Phoenix Suns. Sharpe and Rupert are destined for restricted free agency next summer, if not extended...The fact that he’s a second-round pick signed to an unusually-long four-year deal, means he bypasses restricted free agency and goes straight to unrestricted free agency in 2027...But the Blazers have options. If they still weren’t willing to extend him this time next season, they could still protect him from other interested teams. Cronin could decline Camara’s fourth-year option and extend a qualifying offer, prompting Camara’s restricted free agency in 2026.

- Sharpe is eligible for an extension

[oldfishermen]

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/worst-3pt-shooting-percentage-2024-2025

DO NOT pick up Kris Murrays team option. The NBAs lowest 3pt% for 24/25 season. 22.5%.

[Walton1one]

Team option is AFTER next year...

[oldfishermen]

Team option is AFTER next year...

Just double checked. You are correct, my bad. Thanks for the tuneup.

[Walton1one]

Here is a scenario, where POR could get involved in a 3-team trade.

This would be entirely based on whether or not Giannis asks out of MIL, and MIL looks to deal him this offseason. If that is the case, I think HOU would be one of the teams that would have the best possibility to acquire him.

Now the caveat here is that I still think NO would be a far better 3rd team than POR would, given that they own MIL 26/27 picks (26' swap rights, 27 own MIL 1st), however...

HOU has the #9 this year
a 27' swap with BRK or 27' 1st from PHX
their own 28/30/32 1st's

and POR has:
28' swap w\MIL
29 MIL 1st
30' swap w\MIL

So, a deal where MIL could net back a lottery pick this year (#9\HOU), they don't have their own pick, HOU 27 1st which has swap rights with BRK (could be lottery) or PHX 27' 1st, any number of HOU 28/30/32 1st's, plus the 28/30 swaps back from POR & their 29 1st back from POR + young players could be probable? and HOU has a lot of intriguing young players that they could deal away in a trade for Giannis: Whitmore, Sheppard, Smith Jr & Eason (I doubt they put Amen, Sengun or possibly Green into this deal)

So could POR parlay some combination of 28/30 swaps & 29 1st into a Jabari Smith, Cam Whitmore or Reed Sheppard? I think they certainly could...

Here are the "parameters" of a deal:

HOU gets Giannis
POR gets Dillon Brooks, Londale & Connaughtons + Smith Jr
MIL gets Grant, Williams (expiring), Whitmore, Sheppard + #9, HOU 27 1st, HOU 30 1st, 29 MIL1st back from POR + 30 swap

Net for Giannis: (4) 1st's + Whitmore & Sheppard

Net for HOU: Giannis (duh)

Net for POR: Smith Jr , and they keep #10 this year

There are several permeations to this type of deal, but this is kind of a framework where it could work IMO>

[PDXKnight]

Team option is AFTER next year...

Yes but usually those need to be executed by the time the prior season begins. Def should let that guy go