Offseason of talk about LMA potentially leaving the Blazers

[Norm2953]

I'm in the camp he's not going to want to turn down Millions to sign a lesser max deal.

If he goes, it will be to a team over the cap in a sign and trade deal where the team he is going to
is intact to make a better playoff run than he would get in Portland. Wiz is likely correct we'll not
get much more than a large TPE but those are useful in making unbalanced trades.

One thing to consider are the strong rumors of the Bulls getting ready to fire their coach for LA
might not be so keen on going to a team without a head coach. Hopefully that team that gets him
will be in the east so if not the Bulls maybe a team like the Wizards who could send Nene to Portland
in a deal.

[DaVoiceMaster]

If the Blazers bring everyone back and are healthy, they have a good shot at the top. Why wouldn't he want to return? How many teams can he go to that have that same situation? If they can add another rotational (veteran) bench player or two rather cheaply, then they would have a real shot at going the distance. Not many teams could do that. I'm not getting my panties in a bunch over this new rumor at this point.

[Wizenheimer]

Man this stuff makes me gets so down...I just wish we knew, right the Season ends fr us (Whenever that maybe, not giving up hope) Why oh Why did we trade that Lotto pick?

what "lotto pick" are you referring to?

[hondaaccord]

I'm in the camp he's not going to want to turn down Millions to sign a lesser max deal.

If he goes, it will be to a team over the cap in a sign and trade deal where the team he is going to
is intact to make a better playoff run than he would get in Portland. Wiz is likely correct we'll not
get much more than a large TPE but those are useful in making unbalanced trades.

One thing to consider are the strong rumors of the Bulls getting ready to fire their coach for LA
might not be so keen on going to a team without a head coach. Hopefully that team that gets him
will be in the east so if not the Bulls maybe a team like the Wizards who could send Nene to Portland
in a deal.

With Oregon Income tax is LMA really better off signing in Portland versus one of the no-income tax teams like SA,HOU,DAL,MIA. I'm thinking LMA will want to go to SA - they would be instant favorites in the West if he joined.

[monopoman]

I'm in the camp he's not going to want to turn down Millions to sign a lesser max deal.

If he goes, it will be to a team over the cap in a sign and trade deal where the team he is going to
is intact to make a better playoff run than he would get in Portland. Wiz is likely correct we'll not
get much more than a large TPE but those are useful in making unbalanced trades.

One thing to consider are the strong rumors of the Bulls getting ready to fire their coach for LA
might not be so keen on going to a team without a head coach. Hopefully that team that gets him
will be in the east so if not the Bulls maybe a team like the Wizards who could send Nene to Portland
in a deal.

With Oregon Income tax is LMA really better off signing in Portland versus one of the no-income tax teams like SA,HOU,DAL,MIA. I'm thinking LMA will want to go to SA - they would be instant favorites in the West if he joined.

They would if they didn't have to gut the team to get him on the roster, acting like they can keep all their current players and just add LMA is not accurate at all.

[Norm2953]

There are reports SA plans on offering Leonard a max contract on July 1. Unless they can move
Tony Parker's contract, they won't have the cap space after Leonard to offer a max deal to
LA unless LA is willing to take a deal for whatever they can offer for one year.

[Wizenheimer]

There are reports SA plans on offering Leonard a max contract on July 1. Unless they can move
Tony Parker's contract, they won't have the cap space after Leonard to offer a max deal to
LA unless LA is willing to take a deal for whatever they can offer for one year.

The Spurs could offer and Leonard could agree to the deal, but until he signs the offer, his 7.2 million cap-hold would be on the books rather then his 15 million salary

in other words, the deal could be in place but the Spurs could get Leonard's cooperation in delaying signining in order to preserve maximum space, assuming the Spurs had big plans for that space

[Norm2953]

I'd be curious how long the discussions with LA will take and whether LA will insist on a max
contract no matter where he goes.

How the Spurs handle Tim Duncan this summer will be interesting asking him to take a big
pay cut after 18 years of service is going to be impossible. If he and Manu agree to
retire, they might still need to dump one of Splitter, Mills or allow Green to walk in order
to have their ducks in order and the 2015-16 Spurs won't have the accustomed depth
they are used to. Tony Parker turns 33 next year and has been missing more games
which is concern for the Spurs

[skoharry]

I think I have a potential fix that probably would be possible to go down if LA does leave
POR trades batum to CHI for gibson
I believe CHI does this trade because of the play of mirotic, it makes gibson expendable. plus they will possibly need a new starting SF what with dunleavy becoming a FA.

then we S&T LA to SA for kawhi and danny green

[DeBlazerRiddem]

then we S&T LA to SA for kawhi ...

Yeah, that's not happening. Would do it in a heartbeat though.

[GreenRiddler]

Man this stuff makes me gets so down...I just wish we knew, right the Season ends fr us (Whenever that maybe, not giving up hope) Why oh Why did we trade that Lotto pick?

what "lotto pick" are you referring to?

Comon Don't tell me you have the handle of Wiz and can't read between the lines....

Ok I'll paint it for you, If LMA leaves we are a lotto team and that 2016 pick is in the lottery, unless we sign a big name like Love.

[GreenRiddler]

If the Blazers bring everyone back and are healthy, they have a good shot at the top. Why wouldn't he want to return? How many teams can he go to that have that same situation? If they can add another rotational (veteran) bench player or two rather cheaply, then they would have a real shot at going the distance. Not many teams could do that. I'm not getting my panties in a bunch over this new rumor at this point.

Yes, but we don't have the wining culture of the Spurs, and Lillard + Batum/Rolo is not that much better than Monta + Parsons/Chandler but it has the added benefit of being in his hometown.

I don't think he will go anywhere but those 2 teams if he leaves. That is Although not considering Cap influence, as I think Dal does not have the money. But if SA does, I think it is closer than we think he could walk to the Spurs and forgo the extra money. Or sign a 2 year deal wit hthe Spurs and then a big 4 year deal with them once the Cap explodes.

[Wizenheimer]

Man this stuff makes me gets so down...I just wish we knew, right the Season ends fr us (Whenever that maybe, not giving up hope) Why oh Why did we trade that Lotto pick?

what "lotto pick" are you referring to?

Comon Don't tell me you have the handle of Wiz and can't read between the lines....

Ok I'll paint it for you, If LMA leaves we are a lotto team and that 2016 pick is in the lottery, unless we sign a big name like Love.

well, you're painting yourself into a corner...the 2016 pick is lottery protected

[Wickzki]

well, you're painting yourself into a corner...the 2016 pick is lottery protected

To be more exact:

2016: completely lottery protected
2017: completely loterry protected

If we haven't conveyed a pick in either of the next two seasons (i.e. we lose LMA and are a lotto team for a couple of seasons) Portland will instead convey the less favorable of its 2018 2nd round pick and Sacramento's 2018 2nd round pick (via Sacramento's right to swap for Portland) and its 2019 2nd round pick to Denver.

Worst case scenario (for Blazers team success) plays out we lose a couple of second round picks.

It was a win-win trade for us. Either we were successful with the trade and we lose a mid-to-late first round pick or we lose a pair of seconds.

[GreenRiddler]

I am preparing for the worst from LMA. I just hope he doesn't go Bosh and not tell the FO if he has no intention of resigning, it is 1 thing if you are considering it, but it would be a jerk thing to do if he knows their is no way he will come back and doesn't give the heads up so they can better prepare for the Draft and FA period.

I hate Love, but he is talented, and he has that Portland connection. Not alot of other good teams have cap space to sign him. Or the glaring hole we would if LMA leaves.

[Run PDX]

If Aldridge leaves, I think it would be wiser to go for Greg Monroe and one or two role players with that money, then resign the players who have produced for us this season. I don't think Love and Lillard would mesh as well, personally.

[DaVoiceMaster]

I'd like to find a way to get Brooke Lopez. The Blazers need a big down low. That will help the 3 point shooters and even help Aldridge plus it would give the Blazers another scorer on the floor versus whatever Rolo gives you.

[Wizenheimer]

I'd like to find a way to get Brooke Lopez. The Blazers need a big down low. That will help the 3 point shooters and even help Aldridge plus it would give the Blazers another scorer on the floor versus whatever Rolo gives you.

I want nothing to do with Brooke Lopez for a simple reason:

in the last 4 seasons, he's missed 144 games due to injury. That's 36 games a year....almost half a season. He has bad lower legs and he seems to alternate between nagging minor injury and serious injury. Blazers can't ignore their history and that makes Brooke too big a risk, IMO, especially with his salary

besides that, I don't see any practical way the Blazer could trade for him because of his salary, and I haven't heard he'll be opting out

[Wizenheimer]

so what might Portland do if Aldridge abandons ship? Look at what's left first:

guaranteed salaries (for the most part):

Nicolas Batum $12,235,750
Arron Afflalo $7,937,500 (player option)
Chris Kaman $5,000,000 (1 million guaranteed)
Damian Lillard $4,236,287
C.J. McCollum $2,525,160
Meyers Leonard $3,075,880
Steve Blake $2,170,465
Allen Crabbe $947,276
Tim Frazier $845,059 (unguaranteed)
2015 1st rd pick (23rd) $1,112,000

39 million

then come the cap-holds:

LaMarcus Aldridge $19,000,000 (estimate)
Wesley Matthews $10,868,460
Robin Lopez $9,187,092
Dorell Wright $4,095,000
Joel Freeland $5,725,673
Alonzo Gee $1,276,061

so, the projections are that the salary cap will land somewhere north of 67 million. The Blazers start out at 39 million for 10 players, so, with 2 roster charges of 525K they have around 27 million in cap-space. If Aldridge leaves, then that leaves the cap-holds of Matthews, Lopez, Freeland, Wright, and Gee. The last 3 players are irrelevant in my view because the Blazers would have no reluctance to waive bird rights on them if they needed the space

adding back the cap-holds of Matthews and Lopez leaves Portland around 8 million in cap-space (gain 20 million in cap-holds, lose 1 million in roster charges)

* they could gain and additional 3.5 million by waiving Kaman. Two problems with that, he's relatively cheap at 5 million for a utility C and he's one of Portland's only inside threats; and the deadline for waiving him is June 30, which is likely well before the Blazers will know what Aldridge will do.

* obviously, 'losing' Afflalo could gain an additional 7.4 million in space but I don't know that Afflalo will opt-out. It actually makes more sense for him to play for the last year of his deal and become UFA in 2016 when the cap jumps to 90 million. After the season he just had, he's unlikely to get a higher salary next season then the last year of his current deal

* no real advantage to waiving Frazier. With the offset in his salary vs roster charge, Portland would only gain 320K in space; and he's a relatively cheap 3rd PG who showed flashes this season
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

so between 8-11.5 million in space (the kaman factor). Maybe Portland could gain a little space by getting Matthews & Lopez signed early, assuming they'd intend to if Aldridge leaves.

AND, Portland could have 17-20 million in space if they let Lopez walk (and Kaman), meaning they could theoretically go after a max free agent. But I think most of us realize that would be a joke. What max free agent will want to sign with a small-market team in a high tax state that just lost their franchise player? Of course, that brings up if Matthews/Lopez will want to re-sign if Aldridge leaves, and that's a real question

anyway that moves the horizon down to lower-tier free agents, and with Aldridge gone, Portland desperately needs a PF....but why bother? OK...I guess it's no fun to give up, and since I started this with cap-space in mind, here's a few free agent ideas (PF's):

* Paul Millsap (almost certainly out of Portland's price range, even if Kaman is released. Probably a long shot but maybe he still feels good about Portland because of their contract offer in 2010. Truthfully, with a different coach and a different offense, the Blazers could be an interesting team with Millsap replacing Aldridge)

* Brandon Bass (might come cheap...with good reason)

* Thadeus Young (decent player...bit of a tweener)

* Greg Monroe (no chance)

* Josh Smith (yuck)

* Ed Davis (don't want him as a starter)

* Brandon Wright ( a better version of Davis)

frankly, afaic, the only player worth the effort would be Millsap, and with only 11.5 million in space, Portland has no chance. Portland could get the space, but essentially trading Aldridge & Lopez for Millsap looks like a real questionable deal...as in why bother?

there are other free agents obviously, but that loops back around Portland being rather rudderless without LMA. Will Paul Allen be willing to have the Blazers take on more long-term contracts, especially with the very real possibility Portland becomes a treadmill team?...trapped in that limbo between 1st round playoff exits or the last pick or so in the lottery

[Norm2953]

Man this stuff makes me gets so down...I just wish we knew, right the Season ends fr us (Whenever that maybe, not giving up hope) Why oh Why did we trade that Lotto pick?

what "lotto pick" are you referring to?

Comon Don't tell me you have the handle of Wiz and can't read between the lines....

Ok I'll paint it for you, If LMA leaves we are a lotto team and that 2016 pick is in the lottery, unless we sign a big name like Love.

That pick we will send in the Affalo deal is lottery protected.