2019 Offseason, June 30th 3PM PT.

[HoopsFanAZ]

The Blazers have a nice problem ... not that it will work out beautifully. [And thank you for the numbers on exception raises on current contracts for Kanter, Hood, and Curry as well as the $5.6 mil number on the tax paying MLE.]

Hood, age 26, 5th season, 3rd team. A starter and 6th man SG/SF. Good size, athleticism. Has what he needs to be good at D. Some similarities on O to Turner in the midrange (and some Jalen Rose in him?). A decent to good 3 point shooter under control. Set shot. Good free throw shooter on few attempts. Needs better REB numbers. A 12-14 PPG guy on 26-27 minutes. A SG/SF at 6'8.

No clear starter at SF. Next season, Turner and MO will enter final year of contract. Gave up his Bird Rights to get out of Cleveland. Betting on himself. Assuming he performs at his "average" level, he's easily worth $4.2 mil for a couple years. Best Blazer candidate for the $5.6 million exception. At age 28, if he earns it, he has Bird Rights and a better contract. Reasonable upside: Evan Turner with a 3 point shot, a bit better athleticism and decent D.

Does he stay for 2 years and $5.6 mil per? [Assuming he likes Portland and the team ... ] YES.

Curry, age 28, 5th season (not counting the year off), and 6th team. A LOW mileage player at 28. A really good 3 point shooter with ½ his shots from 2, ½ from 3. Good, but few, FTs. On the right side of ASST to TO. For the Blazers, he's coming on as the 3rd guard. He's looking like a quality journeyman guard in the NBA in his prime ... which started later.

Worth $5.6 mil for a couple years? On the market, yes. For the Blazers ... as the 3rd guard ... which means less size ... yes. For $3.4 mil on the allowed raise? Yes. Definitely. If he earns it, he can get his bigger dollar contract at age 30 and still with low mileage. Does he stay making $5.6 mil? Yeah, maybe. Getting a consistent, clear role. Does he stay for $3.4 mil? No.

PREDICTION: Only one of Hood or Curry stays.

Kanter, age 26, 8th NBA season, 4th team. 21-28 minutes per game (fewer minutes and one year at 31 are outliers). Okay on TOs and fouls. Not a shot blocker, steals, or (significant) assists. Scores and rebounds (especially on the O glass). Double double in his minutes is good. He's a nice short term bonus for the playoffs.

Made millions on the OKC contract. Now at minimum. 2 years making the smaller MLE to get Bird Rights and bigger money with Portland at age 28? How happy is Kanter with Portland by the end of the year? How does he perform with the team and with team chemistry? His D would have to have improved to average even with his contributions on O. Hood and Curry are more realistic at lower salary. So, no. One and done.

It's a stretch to think he's back next season. He'd have to be a different kind of dude to take A LOT less money. And really love Portland and the team. If he stayed, Meyers is gone; Kanter is better.

AMINU and LAYMAN? Both are back. Bird Rights. Earned it. Positions of need. Aminu makes a bit more on a 2-3 year deal. Layman gets a big raise ... for him. Since Aminu, Layman, and Hood can play 2 positions each ... and heading into final years for Turner (ETEC) and MO (MHEC) at their too large contracts ... it makes for a deep lineup resolved in a year. With Kanter gone, Meyers in a Blazers uniform and is MLEC.

[GEE]

The Blazers have a nice problem ... not that it will work out beautifully. [And thank you for the numbers on exception raises on current contracts for Kanter, Hood, and Curry as well as the $5.6 mil number on the tax paying MLE.]

Hood, age 26, 5th season, 3rd team. A starter and 6th man SG/SF. Good size, athleticism. Has what he needs to be good at D. Some similarities on O to Turner in the midrange (and some Jalen Rose in him?). A decent to good 3 point shooter under control. Set shot. Good free throw shooter on few attempts. Needs better REB numbers. A 12-14 PPG guy on 26-27 minutes. A SG/SF at 6'8.

No clear starter at SF. Next season, Turner and MO will enter final year of contract. Gave up his Bird Rights to get out of Cleveland. Betting on himself. Assuming he performs at his "average" level, he's easily worth $4.2 mil for a couple years. Best Blazer candidate for the $5.6 million exception. At age 28, if he earns it, he has Bird Rights and a better contract. Reasonable upside: Evan Turner with a 3 point shot, a bit better athleticism and decent D.

Does he stay for 2 years and $5.6 mil per? [Assuming he likes Portland and the team ... ] YES.

Curry, age 28, 5th season (not counting the year off), and 6th team. A LOW mileage player at 28. A really good 3 point shooter with ½ his shots from 2, ½ from 3. Good, but few, FTs. On the right side of ASST to TO. For the Blazers, he's coming on as the 3rd guard. He's looking like a quality journeyman guard in the NBA in his prime ... which started later.

Worth $5.6 mil for a couple years? On the market, yes. For the Blazers ... as the 3rd guard ... which means less size ... yes. For $3.4 mil on the allowed raise? Yes. Definitely. If he earns it, he can get his bigger dollar contract at age 30 and still with low mileage. Does he stay making $5.6 mil? Yeah, maybe. Getting a consistent, clear role. Does he stay for $3.4 mil? No.

PREDICTION: Only one of Hood or Curry stays.

Kanter, age 26, 8th NBA season, 4th team. 21-28 minutes per game (fewer minutes and one year at 31 are outliers). Okay on TOs and fouls. Not a shot blocker, steals, or (significant) assists. Scores and rebounds (especially on the O glass). Double double in his minutes is good. He's a nice short term bonus for the playoffs.

Made millions on the OKC contract. Now at minimum. 2 years making the smaller MLE to get Bird Rights and bigger money with Portland at age 28? How happy is Kanter with Portland by the end of the year? How does he perform with the team and with team chemistry? His D would have to have improved to average even with his contributions on O. Hood and Curry are more realistic at lower salary. So, no. One and done.

It's a stretch to think he's back next season. He'd have to be a different kind of dude to take A LOT less money. And really love Portland and the team. If he stayed, Meyers is gone; Kanter is better.

AMINU and LAYMAN? Both are back. Bird Rights. Earned it. Positions of need. Aminu makes a bit more on a 2-3 year deal. Layman gets a big raise ... for him. Since Aminu, Layman, and Hood can play 2 positions each ... and heading into final years for Turner (ETEC) and MO (MHEC) at their too large contracts ... it makes for a deep lineup resolved in a year. With Kanter gone, Meyers in a Blazers uniform and is MLEC.

1. WOW! Great assessment. I really can't disagree with a thing here. Just spot on.

2. Also, thanks to D-train for drop'n knowledge - I learned something today.

3. I really like all of our players, and don't wish to trade any of them. I think the talent level and depth of our Blazers this year, is as good as it's been in years and can beat anybody, especially in a long playoff best of seven. IMO, there's nothing wrong with the talent level of this team, and it's really up to Terry, to step up his game and figure out how to best use this depth we now have, or get shown the door if this year's playoffs are just like previous years.

[DusterBuster]

I'd love to see the Blazers be aggressive in trying to retain this whole team at reasonable pricepoints. I think Layman, Aminu, Kanter and Hood could all be resigned at deals at or under 10mil per year. I miss this team having trade-positive assets. I think those guys would hold solid trade value on reasonable contracts, unlike the mess the Blazers have had the past 3 years with Turner, Harkless and Leonard.

I think the Blazers best bet would be to trade Turner or Harkless + Leonard to a team willing to absorb their final year salary for a FRP. I'd be looking at a team like Atlanta or Sacramento to potentially be that team. A team with cap space but who doesn't have big FA aspirations this summer. It's a lot less of an ask for teams to take on a big contract when it's expiring since the team acquiring the player can flip them at the deadline.

I actually think the Kings would really be into a deal of Harkless, Leonard and the Blazer 2019 FRP for basically nothing but cap space. Both of those guys would be useful rotational players and gives them some deadline trade chips. The deal would have to be agreed upon during the draft, Portland picks for Sacramento, then the deal is officially completed after July 1.

[Wizenheimer]

I'd love to see the Blazers be aggressive in trying to retain this whole team at reasonable pricepoints. I think Layman, Aminu, Kanter and Hood could all be resigned at deals at or under 10mil per year. I miss this team having trade-positive assets. I think those guys would hold solid trade value on reasonable contracts, unlike the mess the Blazers have had the past 3 years with Turner, Harkless and Leonard.

I agree those guys signed to reasonable deals would be a decent collection of trade assets. I just don't see how the Blazers can pull it off.

Right now they are at 126M. Add Layman's cap-hold and it's 128M for 11 players. Add a roster charge and it's 129M, which is right at the edge of dropping from the 9M full MLE to the 5.6M tax MLE, and that doesn't account for the additional 1M if they keep their FRP and delete a roster charge. The problem is that Aminu's cap-hold is is 13.2M and Hood's is 6.6M. (and Curry's is 3.4M).

so, if the goal is to re-sign all 4 of those players, They'd have to do non-Bird for Hood and tax-MLE for Kanter. Hood's non-Bird would be maxed at 4.1M first year salary. I'd guess he's going to get more; and if he doesn't get more, that could mean he didn't contribute enough to earn more, which in turn begs the question if Portland would want him back. I would love to see Hood on something like a 3 year 15M deal. That definitely would be a decent trade chip. I'm just not sure how realistic that is with the league-wide cap-space and MLE that will be avilable

Kanter at 5.6M/year? Seems like wishful thinking. He's going to take a pay cut, but I really doubt it would be that much. So yeah, Portland will likely need that full MLE for him, and then, they could do something like a 3-year/30M deal, which I would think would be in Kanter's price-range. But would he want to be a back-up?

I think the Blazers best bet would be to trade Turner or Harkless + Leonard to a team willing to absorb their final year salary for a FRP. I'd be looking at a team like Atlanta or Sacramento to potentially be that team. A team with cap space but who doesn't have big FA aspirations this summer. It's a lot less of an ask for teams to take on a big contract when it's expiring since the team acquiring the player can flip them at the deadline.

I actually think the Kings would really be into a deal of Harkless, Leonard and the Blazer 2019 FRP for basically nothing but cap space. Both of those guys would be useful rotational players and gives them some deadline trade chips. The deal would have to be agreed upon during the draft, Portland picks for Sacramento, then the deal is officially completed after July 1.

I'm skeptical that the Blazers would be able to pawn off both Hark and MJ for the low cost of a late FRP. One of them? Yeah, probably, especially if they are the first team out there trying to off-load expirings with a pick as incentive. I'm not sure the Kings will look at Harkless as desirable. They have Barnes and Bogdanovich and will almost certainly be going hard at re-signing Burks. With Hield, that's a lot of wings on the roster. Of course, Burks is UFA so there are no guarantees. They might have more interest in Meyers since Koufos is UFA and rarely used. Problem is that Aminu + Hood combine for 20M in cap-hold. Blazers would have to clear that much to still maintain their full-MLE

also, I'm not going to look it up, but i"m thinking the new CBA changed a rule that may impact what Layman does. His QO and cap-hold are supposedly the same 1.9M. But i'm kind of thinking if he gets an offer sheet of say 10M first year, his cap-hold is immediately replaced by the offer sheet unless Portland renounced his rights

it just seems like too many balls to juggle, but how it could happen: Blazers trade Meyers and a 1st to the Kings for a TPE. they are now at 117M in guaranteed money, They finesse Hood into that non-Bird for 4.1M. Then they finesse Aminu into a 6-7M 1st year deal. They are then at 127-128M and they are at the 12 player minimum, so no roster charge. This allows them to give Kanter that 30M MLE deal. 13 players for 137M. Then they re-sign Layman for say 10M first year. 147M which is 15M over the tax line which would be in the 28-30M range for luxury tax. I'm really skeptical JA would sign off on that, but who knows. They could also try to move Harkless using a future 1st as leverage, maybe the 2020 first, and replace him with a minimum salary. That would mean 2 straight years without a draft pick but for a win-now team, Zach, Simons, and Trent are more than enough projects on the roster, and there was always going to be a price paid for the 2016 spending spree

[GEE]

Just wanted to note:

Whatever trades happen at the end of the season are hard to guess, due to not knowing what proposed players' value will be at. If Terry can figure things out(big if), and we're somehow able go to the WCF's... Other teams around the league will be willing to over-pay for guys like Mo and Turner.

Also, Turner is soooo important to the Blazers' success, and trading him would have hurt. He's our back-up PG, or Point Forward, whatever, but he runs the O. He's also 6'7, long, and strong enough to guard guys like PG13.

And last, I don't think those bad contracts, look so bad anymore. It just doesn't seem like year's past to me. It will all depend on Terry and Dame though. They are the two people I'm holding accountable now. I'll revisit the trade stuff, when the season is over.

[HoopsFanAZ]

I remember a good conversation from two years ago. A friend had written a short article on the topic of going big, and it seeems like now is a good time to bring it back up. While not all current big men on the Blazers are likely to remain — Nurkic, Kanter, Collins, Aminu, Labissiere, and (even) Leonard — it is a solid to strong group.

Here’s the link:
https://www.blazersland.com/time-to-do-the-opposite/

[wco81]

How much does the offseason strategy depend on how the Blazers do in the playoffs?

More likely to retain as many players as possible if they perform better?

I would think the uncertainty over the ownership situation would affect their decision making. Could they stay or go deeper into luxury taxes without owner approval?

[HoopsFanAZ]

wco81, Good questions. And my initial answers would be “It all depends” and “I don’t know.” I’m not sure how separate post season decisions can or should be from performance and/or ownership matters. Addressing weaknesses exposed in a playoff series with specific player-personnel moves seems reactive rather than having a plan.

On a complimentary note, the discussions, speculation, and good-old-fashioned disagreements on this board ... for quite a while ... are now being somewhat addressed in articles by various Blazers oriented sites ... but not with the level of detail found here. Others (not me) drill deep on both financial and performance numbers. And my thanks goes to those who provide the data and then suggest possibilities and implications.

So, wco81 (and others), what are your thoughts on your own questions?

[wco81]

That's why GMs get paid the big bucks, to make those decisions.

On the one hand, if they have the same result as the last few years, which has been one and done, there might be even more calls for making some big changes. Not necessarily blow it up but swap out several of the rotation players.

OTOH, the team has been winning 45-50 games during Stott's previous 6 seasons, drawing well. Seems like the fan base doesn't condition support on making deep runs in the playoffs though of course they'd love for the team to break through.

I guess we don't know what Jodie Allen thinks of paying luxury taxes. But she is trustee and executor of Paul Allen's estate so she may feel some sense of obligation to try to do what Paul would have wanted.

Spotrac estimates the Blazer's luxury tax bill at just under $14 million, which isn't too bad. Retaining some of the free agents may not hurt too much, since the Turner and Leonard deals have only one more year to run.

In another year or two, Lillard will be up for a super max extension. So what they pay this summer may cascade to subsequent years.

[NYG]

Harkless, Leonard and ‘19 1st to Sacramento for tax breathing room

Jimmy Butler (sign and trade) for C.J. McCollum?

[d-train]

Harkless, Leonard and ‘19 1st to Sacramento for tax breathing room

Jimmy Butler (sign and trade) for C.J. McCollum?

Butler is Sixers problem. I don't see the Blazers giving up CJ for one of Sixers problems.

Blazers might be interested in a trade that lowers salary if it also makes the team better. Giving up 2 good players and a 1st round draft pick for nothing doesn't qualify as team improvement. Now, trading Harkless and Leonard for no salary back, and renouncing Kanter's cap hold (which is worthless), does increase our MLE by about $3.5M to $9.16M. Doing this only makes sense if we get more out of a $9.16M MLE than we could from a $5.66M MLE and keeping Harkless and Leonard. It seems doubtful an increased MLE would yield anything as good as Harkless alone, but it is possible Kanter could be persuaded to resign with the enticement of reestablishing early bird rights. I don't know if that would be worth giving up Harkless and the $5.66M MLE.

[NYG]

Harkless, Leonard and ‘19 1st to Sacramento for tax breathing room

Jimmy Butler (sign and trade) for C.J. McCollum?

Butler is Sixers problem. I don't see the Blazers giving up CJ for one of Sixers problems.

Blazers might be interested in a trade that lowers salary if it also makes the team better. Giving up 2 good players and a 1st round draft pick for nothing doesn't qualify as team improvement. Now, trading Harkless and Leonard for no salary back, and renouncing Kanter's cap hold (which is worthless), does increase our MLE by about $3.5M to $9.16M. Doing this only makes sense if we get more out of a $9.16M MLE than we could from a $5.66M MLE and keeping Harkless and Leonard. It seems doubtful an increased MLE would yield anything as good as Harkless alone, but it is possible Kanter could be persuaded to resign with the enticement of reestablishing early bird rights. I don't know if that would be worth giving up Harkless and the $5.66M MLE.

Would Turner and ‘20 lotto protected 1st for no salary coming back be worth it?

[d-train]

Harkless, Leonard and ‘19 1st to Sacramento for tax breathing room

Jimmy Butler (sign and trade) for C.J. McCollum?

Butler is Sixers problem. I don't see the Blazers giving up CJ for one of Sixers problems.

Blazers might be interested in a trade that lowers salary if it also makes the team better. Giving up 2 good players and a 1st round draft pick for nothing doesn't qualify as team improvement. Now, trading Harkless and Leonard for no salary back, and renouncing Kanter's cap hold (which is worthless), does increase our MLE by about $3.5M to $9.16M. Doing this only makes sense if we get more out of a $9.16M MLE than we could from a $5.66M MLE and keeping Harkless and Leonard. It seems doubtful an increased MLE would yield anything as good as Harkless alone, but it is possible Kanter could be persuaded to resign with the enticement of reestablishing early bird rights. I don't know if that would be worth giving up Harkless and the $5.66M MLE.

Would Turner and ‘20 lotto protected 1st for no salary coming back be worth it?

No. The 2020 pick would do nothing for us. Turner plus the 2019 pick would increase our MLE by $3.5M to $9.166M. Blazers willingness to do that would be based on an expectation that the increased MLE would yield a really good player. It seems unlikely.

[d-train]

The most likely scenario is the Blazers trade Leonard to a team with cap room for a 2nd round pick to save salary and stockpile a draft pick. Then, we use the $5.66M MLE to replace Leonard. And, I think we resign at least Aminu, Layman, Hood, and Curry using bird rights. We can offer Kanter the $5.66M, but it's probably not enough.

[GEE]

I think Curry will be the first to go, considering who we just drafted. He's the only guy really that I can see leaving. There must be a way to resign everyone else.

Question... Can we renegotiate/restructure Leonards contract, to maybe free up a few bucks???

[Wizenheimer]

Question... Can we renegotiate/restructure Leonards contract, to maybe free up a few bucks???

well, the Blazers could stretch his contract. That would result in a 3-year assessment against Portland's cap of 3.76M/year. That would reduce next year's cost by 7.5M; but also stretch that cost an additional 2 years

Portland could instead stretch Turner's deal. That would be a 3 year stretch of 6.2M/year. That would reduce next year's cap by 12.4M. That might be an option if JA says no luxury tax

[Norm2953]

While I'm as enthused as anyone with the potential of this group, let's wait and see how this group
jells together in April prior to the playoffs. The strengths and weaknesses of this group will be
apparent by then. If Kanter is such a great fit for Portland and he wants to stay, I woud think
Portland would have no problem finding the means to offer him a full MLE deal for that cap
hold on Aminu means Portland will allow him to walk.

[GEE]

Question... Can we renegotiate/restructure Leonards contract, to maybe free up a few bucks???

well, the Blazers could stretch his contract. That would result in a 3-year assessment against Portland's cap of 3.76M/year. That would reduce next year's cost by 7.5M; but also stretch that cost an additional 2 years

Portland could instead stretch Turner's deal. That would be a 3 year stretch of 6.2M/year. That would reduce next year's cap by 12.4M. That might be an option if JA says no luxury tax

Stretch option for Leonard I like, if it's an easy move to free up the change needed to resign our guys. I know much really depends on what happens in the coming months, but I have a f/u.

Question... God forbid, but what if Portland still sees Miles Lemon as their 3rd big for the future. Easily expendable of course, but could Portland try to restructure Leonard's contract by say: Taking his remaining year, adding two addition years at a minimal salary, and averaging those out to create a saving for the summer?

Thanks

[Drewskickinit]

Kanter is a must keep when the off season comes. Get him a 10 mil a year contract and get rid of all these expiring contracts we will have. Kanter having the ability to rebound like he does holds a lot of value now a days the way teams jack up outside shots all day long. I think one of the keys to the new NBA is having good rebounders

[Sinobas]

CJ to any team that will take him, for a future 1st round pick
Turner and our 1st to a team with space to get him off the books.

That would be us well under the cap, and we could retain our bench. Portland's best course is to build a deep roster with a quality bench rather than hoping to somehow get another star.