Ayton

[Tim Lehrbach]

And, the counter to "if Ayton wasn't paid so much he'd be fine" is "if Ayton wasn't a top draft pick he'd be accepted by all as the empty calories he is."

You're doing that bad arguing logic thing smart people name something fancy sounding that Wizenheimer calls people out on. No Ayton defender on here has argued that he's an elite center. His defenders have argued he's MLE tier. It's his haters that are crying that he's not Jokić tier, then using that to argue that they are right despite nobody making that argument. The closest player Wizenheimer came up with in his list was a 31 year old Clint Capela that still made $22M last season.

I neither built nor knocked down any strawman, but you certainly did by accusing me of arguing against imaginary folks calling him an elite center. I did no such thing. What I suggested in what you quoted is that people would be less inclined to assemble his few skills into a picture of a good NBA player had he not been so celebrated coming out of college.

Simons haters pull the same crap. "HE'S NOT DAME!" Okay. That doesn't mean he's not an MLE tier player. I support Simons as well (at an MLE contract), and my argument has always been that he's a smaller Jamal Crawford.

Both are nice pieces to have on an NBA team provided they don't limit the rest of the roster due to cap constraints from being overpaid. Both pretty much are what they are. Both are young enough to play for several more seasons. Role players. If you're expecting more, explain why and where that idea came from.

No, you really don't understand the argument at all. I'm not expecting "more" from Ayton. I'm expecting him to be not on this team, holding back its offense and defense. He doesn't play winning basketball compatible with what the Blazers are doing at either end of the floor. It's not that he isn't elite, it's that he isn't a useful player to this team. Keep coming back with "yuh-huh he is, y'all just haterz!" all you want, but you aren't making anything resembling a convincing argument. It's always the same breakdown of his skills and box score prowess, each of which has been countered with evidence and/or contrary opinions that we're entitled to hold without being charged with dishonesty or worse.

I've seen enough of Ayton. He doesn't make the Blazers a better basketball team at any price. Remember, the cost of carrying a player is not only a salary but a roster spot. He is not only limiting the rest of the roster by his contract but by being on the roster at all. His minutes and his spot should be given away, even to an ostensibly "worse" player, but somebody with a prayer of upping this team's ceiling in the short or long run. Unless, that is, the team wants to embrace a tank season. Then, the OP's suggestion becomes a great one.

Simons can play backup minutes at better than replacement level or maybe even slot into a starting lineup next to an elite lead guard as a floor spacer. I would rather not have him, either, but it's worth considering keeping him on a steep discount (which won't happen). He's also got nothing whatsoever to do with this discussion on Ayton.

[Tim Lehrbach]

What's got you so angry lately, anyway? You never used to come at me like this. Oh well.

[dckingsfan]

This draft just happens to have some interesting\athletic bigs like: Newell, Beringer, Condon (if he stays), Markovic, Lendeborg, Fleming,

Just to add my list, you get the idea - lots of bigs in this draft, would be nice to BUY a SRP:

Maluach (defense only), Queen (offense only but could play with Clingan), Wolf (would be really solid), CMB (might have difficulty playing with Clingan), Sorber (solid), Lendeborg, Newell, Beringer, Fleming, Raynaud, Kalkbrenner, Condon, Broom, Almansa, Dixon, & Yang (maybe my favorite sleeper, go get that second round pick).

[dckingsfan]

Boo Ayton. Ayton is the worst!
Okay. So we keep an unhappy and injury prone Nurkić, and miss out on trading for Camara. How does that work out?

that's 28 backup C's. Only 8 have salaries of 10M or more. 16 of 28 have salaries of 5M or less. 10 have salaries of 3M or less. The average salary for a backup C is 7.1M, If you toss out the salaries of Capela (expired) and Nurkic (Olshey), the average backup C salary is 6.1M

and you're ok with paying Ayton as much as 18M? The cost/benefit equation with that guy is way out of whack

And every one of those 28 backup centers have worse metrics than Ayton. None of them had stretches of 20ppg/10rpg games.
Now, you can argue for most of the stats that Ayton had more minutes and a higher usage rate.
And you can argue that Clingan is ready and paying that much of the cap for what you hope is a backup C is a terrible use of the cap.
I think $18M is high. But he's proven worthy of the non-tax payer MLE.
Ayton haters just can't get past that he was a former #1 pick that is currently paid $35.5M next season. If he was drafted mid-1st round and making $12-13M, he'd get the Timelord/RoLo love.

And, the counter to "if Ayton wasn't paid so much he'd be fine" is "if Ayton wasn't a top draft pick he'd be accepted by all as the empty calories he is."

You're doing that bad arguing logic thing smart people name something fancy sounding that Wizenheimer calls people out on. No Ayton defender on here has argued that he's an elite center. His defenders have argued he's MLE tier. It's his haters that are crying that he's not Jokić tier, then using that to argue that they are right despite nobody making that argument. The closest player Wizenheimer came up with in his list was a 31 year old Clint Capela that still made $22M last season.

Simons haters pull the same crap. "HE'S NOT DAME!" Okay. That doesn't mean he's not an MLE tier player. I support Simons as well (at an MLE contract), and my argument has always been that he's a smaller Jamal Crawford.

Both are nice pieces to have on an NBA team provided they don't limit the rest of the roster due to cap constraints from being overpaid. Both pretty much are what they are. Both are young enough to play for several more seasons. Role players. If you're expecting more, explain why and where that idea came from.

From reading what you are writing, I assume you are making the point that they are not bad backup NBA players and should be on those types of contracts?

So, can I assume that Cronin should offer them very team friendly contracts this off-season?

Do you think either player would be good being a backup?

These are the rhetorical questions that answer themselves. Ayton and Simons see themselves as stars and want to get paid as such (opinion). Ayton will not be happy being a backup to Clingan. Neither will Simons to Scoot.

So, isn't the best outcome to move them now (if you can get back something worthwhile) or just let them expire (given this new CBA)? I think the answer is yes.

[Dame Lizard]

Boo Ayton. Ayton is the worst!
Okay. So we keep an unhappy and injury prone Nurkić, and miss out on trading for Camara. How does that work out?

that's 28 backup C's. Only 8 have salaries of 10M or more. 16 of 28 have salaries of 5M or less. 10 have salaries of 3M or less. The average salary for a backup C is 7.1M, If you toss out the salaries of Capela (expired) and Nurkic (Olshey), the average backup C salary is 6.1M

and you're ok with paying Ayton as much as 18M? The cost/benefit equation with that guy is way out of whack

And every one of those 28 backup centers have worse metrics than Ayton. None of them had stretches of 20ppg/10rpg games.
Now, you can argue for most of the stats that Ayton had more minutes and a higher usage rate.
And you can argue that Clingan is ready and paying that much of the cap for what you hope is a backup C is a terrible use of the cap.
I think $18M is high. But he's proven worthy of the non-tax payer MLE.
Ayton haters just can't get past that he was a former #1 pick that is currently paid $35.5M next season. If he was drafted mid-1st round and making $12-13M, he'd get the Timelord/RoLo love.

And, the counter to "if Ayton wasn't paid so much he'd be fine" is "if Ayton wasn't a top draft pick he'd be accepted by all as the empty calories he is."

You're doing that bad arguing logic thing smart people name something fancy sounding that Wizenheimer calls people out on. No Ayton defender on here has argued that he's an elite center. His defenders have argued he's MLE tier. It's his haters that are crying that he's not Jokić tier, then using that to argue that they are right despite nobody making that argument. The closest player Wizenheimer came up with in his list was a 31 year old Clint Capela that still made $22M last season.

Simons haters pull the same crap. "HE'S NOT DAME!" Okay. That doesn't mean he's not an MLE tier player. I support Simons as well (at an MLE contract), and my argument has always been that he's a smaller Jamal Crawford.

Both are nice pieces to have on an NBA team provided they don't limit the rest of the roster due to cap constraints from being overpaid. Both pretty much are what they are. Both are young enough to play for several more seasons. Role players. If you're expecting more, explain why and where that idea came from.

Resigning Simons at $15m per season is something I could get around. But unfortunately if Portland resigns Simons it'll be for something north of $25m per which is absolutely absurd.

[DaVoiceMaster]

I wouldn't mind giving Ayton 20 minutes per game, but I can't imagine he'd be happy with that. I would mind giving Simon's 20-minutes though. If Clingan is going to be the center going forward (and I still have issues with him), then Ayton needs to expire or be traded. Simon's just needs to be traded while they can get something for him. Grant is the guy they need to figure out. How can they move him, either this summer or prior to the deadline.

[Wizenheimer]

Ayton haters just can't get past that he was a former #1 pick that is currently paid $35.5M next season. If he was drafted mid-1st round and making $12-13M, he'd get the Timelord/RoLo love.
.

I don't care, at all, that Ayton was the #1 pick. It's irrelevant and has NEVER mattered to me. That draft was 7 years ago

and you are wrong. Ayton would never get a smidgen of love from me because I detest the kind of C he is. IMO, there is very little to like. A C who doesn't protect the rim; can't patrol the paint; can't switch onto perimeter players; is a poor screen-setter; and doesn't get to the FT line is bad at just about every important skill for a modern NBA C

I also think the notion that Cronin would have the stones to hold the line and re-sign Ayton for 12-15M/year is loopy. It would be 25M/year, minimum, gauging by the Nurkic-Simons-Grant re-signs

all this garbage chatter about Ayton on an MLE type contract is total deflection

[Blazers20]

I think I’m okay with a traditional center that doesn’t jack up 3’s just for the sake of shooting 3’s. If Ayton can really be effective from 15 feet and in I’m okay with that.

[Wizenheimer]

I think I’m okay with a traditional center that doesn’t jack up 3’s just for the sake of shooting 3’s. If Ayton can really be effective from 15 feet and in I’m okay with that.

unless he's a unicorn like Jokic, It's far more important that a C be "effective from 15 feet and in" on the defensive end of the floor....and Ayton is a liability on that end

[BlazersBroncos]

I think I’m okay with a traditional center that doesn’t jack up 3’s just for the sake of shooting 3’s. If Ayton can really be effective from 15 feet and in I’m okay with that.

Its not just that he cant shoot the 3. He also doesnt get to the line. He is historically bad at getting to the line for a 15-foot-and-in big man who has high usage.

[Blazers20]

If Ayton can get me 25 and 10 a game and shoot 50% from the field I’m okay if he doesn’t get to the line very much or shoot 3’s.

[PDXKnight]

If Ayton can get me 25 and 10 a game and shoot 50% from the field I’m okay if he doesn’t get to the line very much or shoot 3’s.

If he's at 25 ppg guaranteed there's not enough ball movement

[dckingsfan]

I wouldn't mind giving Ayton 20 minutes per game, but I can't imagine he'd be happy with that. I would mind giving Simon's 20-minutes though. If Clingan is going to be the center going forward (and I still have issues with him), then Ayton needs to expire or be traded. Simon's just needs to be traded while they can get something for him. Grant is the guy they need to figure out. How can they move him, either this summer or prior to the deadline.

We are actually in a great place in this regard (if and only if) the FO and coach are in the same place. Win now, let Clingan and Scoot start. Let Simons and Ayton's agents do the work of find a good deal for the Blazers. If there isn't a good deal, let them expire.

In this new CBA, you don't have to worry about players leaving for no compensation.

[Norm2953]

He's finally useful as a $35 expiring contract

[Wizenheimer]

If Ayton can get me 25 and 10 a game and shoot 50% from the field I’m okay if he doesn’t get to the line very much or shoot 3’s.

wut? do you realize what that would mean?

Last season, Ayton averaged 11.7 FGA and 14.4 points. To average 25 points, he'd have to average 20.3 FGA. Only 4 players in the NBA last season averaged 20 FGA or more and they were SGA-Cunningham-Edwards-Tatum. All excellent ball-handlers who not only could go iso, but could also run an offense. Out of the top 35 NBA players in average FGA last season, only two were C's/bigs: Jokic and KAT. 2 seasons ago, Embiid averaged 20.1 points, but he managed to average 33 points off of those 20 shots (8 more points on less shots than your Ayton goal); he was MVP that season

the idea of Ayton averaging 20 FGA is nonsense. He's not a ball-handler or wing or guard who can create their own offense; he needs the team to create it for him. Over the last 2 seasons, Ayton's assisted FG rate was 75%. Returning to those 4 other players averaging 20+ FGA, SGA's assisted FG Rate was 23.6; Cunningham's was 30.3%; Edwards 42%; Tatum 39%.

the two times Dame averaged 20+ FGA, he also averaged 30.0 pts on 20.4 FGA; and 32.3 points on 20.7 FGA. And his assisted FG rates those
seasons were 18.1% & 31.5%

To get Ayton 20 shots a game, the whole damn offense would have to be geared to get him the ball, mostly in the mid-range. He can't dribble drive, can't be the ball-handler in PnR, and can't maneuver around the 3-point line or shoot from behind the arc with anything but crappy efficiency. Not only that, he's a lousy passer so there would be no inside-out component to his offense. It would be a 'black-hole-r-us' offense that would stall out even the remedial motion that the Billups offense has

I have no idea where this reservoir of good will toward Ayton among some Blazer fans comes from. He's a worse empty stats big than Hassan Whiteeside because at least Whiteside was an elite rim-protector and paint defender; that's not Ayton, at all

[DaVoiceMaster]

Ayton haters just can't get past that he was a former #1 pick that is currently paid $35.5M next season. If he was drafted mid-1st round and making $12-13M, he'd get the Timelord/RoLo love.
.

I don't care, at all, that Ayton was the #1 pick. It's irrelevant and has NEVER mattered to me. That draft was 7 years ago

and you are wrong. Ayton would never get a smidgen of love from me because I detest the kind of C he is. IMO, there is very little to like. A C who doesn't protect the rim; can't patrol the paint; can't switch onto perimeter players; is a poor screen-setter; and doesn't get to the FT line is bad at just about every important skill for a modern NBA C

I also think the notion that Cronin would have the stones to hold the line and re-sign Ayton for 12-15M/year is loopy. It would be 25M/year, minimum, gauging by the Nurkic-Simons-Grant re-signs

all this garbage chatter about Ayton on an MLE type contract is total deflection

Agreed. Many #1 picks don't turn out to be a top tier player. Anybody remember Anthony Bennett? How about Greg Oden? Andrew Wiggins?

[JasonStern]

No, you really don't understand the argument at all. I'm not expecting "more" from Ayton. I'm expecting him to be not on this team, holding back its offense and defense. He doesn't play winning basketball compatible with what the Blazers are doing at either end of the floor. It's not that he isn't elite, it's that he isn't a useful player to this team. Keep coming back with "yuh-huh he is, y'all just haterz!" all you want, but you aren't making anything resembling a convincing argument. It's always the same breakdown of his skills and box score prowess, each of which has been countered with evidence and/or contrary opinions that we're entitled to hold without being charged with dishonesty or worse.

I've seen enough of Ayton. He doesn't make the Blazers a better basketball team at any price. Remember, the cost of carrying a player is not only a salary but a roster spot. He is not only limiting the rest of the roster by his contract but by being on the roster at all. His minutes and his spot should be given away, even to an ostensibly "worse" player, but somebody with a prayer of upping this team's ceiling in the short or long run. Unless, that is, the team wants to embrace a tank season. Then, the OP's suggestion becomes a great one.

Simons can play backup minutes at better than replacement level or maybe even slot into a starting lineup next to an elite lead guard as a floor spacer. I would rather not have him, either, but it's worth considering keeping him on a steep discount (which won't happen). He's also got nothing whatsoever to do with this discussion on Ayton.

Ugh. The "also wasting a roster spot" argument. If it's so easy to fill the roster with 26 year old 14.4ppg/10.2rpg players on sub-MLE contracts, why isn't every team doing it? When has filling the roster with inferior talent ever worked out? I guess you could make a claim for Ime Udoka nearly 20 years ago and Joel Pryzbilla 25+. Maybe Whiteside - maybe? But at that point, I question the "replace Ayton to try to find a Whiteside tier talent" approach, as that seems incredibly low upside. Scouting is good enough now that players don't play several seasons and then grow into some swan late - it's the reason you're crapping on Ayton. So, that only leaves filling the entire roster with rookie contracts and g-league players, then PRAYING you luck out multiple times. And no team has ever successfully been built with such a strategy. And even if you could just magically wipe off the contracts of every non-rookie scale player on this team, where exactly are you going to get the picks to draft 10+ rookies? And what quality do you think you're going to get when drafting against 29 other teams? And if you say "well, we get the picks by trading our crappy players that totally suck and we should bench" - why would any team do that?

"Well, you don't back up your talk!"
I literally just did. 26 years old, 14.4ppg, 10.2rpg, 17.7 PER, 57.3% eFG.
"Well, addition by subtraction! Bench or cut him!"
And play who? Clingan for 48 minutes a night? Bank on Timelord? Duop Reath?
Ayton is flawed, but he's also an expiring that is likely playing motivated for his next contract. That seems like a more valuable piece especially towards the trade deadline than benching or cutting him. And, again, if it doesn't work out, the Blazers have no financial obligation to him past this next season.
"Well, you say I am a hater because all I do is hate!"
Okay.

Maybe basketball is getting lost on you. Let's try a Texas Hold'em analogy. You pay the blind. You are dealt a 10-8 off-suite. Everybody checks. So, you want to fold when you already have the blind as a sunken cost. 10-8 sucks. You want pocket aces or suited ace/king. And you can do that. But, it costs you nothing not to and see what happens on the flop. Maybe you get lucky. But immediately folding is not playing the hand dealt to you in the most efficient way. And unless you do something stupid like going all in on this 10-8 off-suite, the odds of the next hand are unaffected by how this hand plays out.

Going back to basketball, if Ayton sucks, then play him - helps the team tank. If Ayton is an MLE tier center that, while flawed, puts up decent stats, paying him not to play with no contingency plan in place is ignorant.

Trust me - my 3rd favorite team is the Kings. Been a fun 2000s.

[JasonStern]

What's got you so angry lately, anyway? You never used to come at me like this. Oh well.

No. I was like this during the last rebuild. Probably more on OregonLive than RealGM. There is a lot of negativity that goes on when a team is bad. And it can be rather infectious. The Blazers are 4 years into a rebuild with no 0.500 level play in sight. Loyal face of the franchise walked out. Below average ownership, GM/management, and coaching. Hate to see the under 27 year old players blamed for this mess. I apologize if anything I said came off as personal. But, from a team fan standpoint, we're in this mess. So, what's the best way to move forward?

I've been completely transparent on what I would do. You don't give up on your younger players. You do whatever you can within reason to get out of Grant's contract. You shop Simons and Ayton, but if nothing materializes, then all of the Simons and Ayton hate on this board was legit, they have no value, now either retain them on the cheap or let them walk. Sharpe, Scoot, and Clingan are probably not going to become all-stars. That doesn't mean you dump them. Doing so just means you wasted multiple seasons tanking with nothing to show for it.

As for Ayton in particular, Suns fans literally laughed at us for taking on his contract. We did get Camara out of it, so I am cool. But we literally got the Ayton that their fans told us we were going to get, and people act surprised. I view it like former Wizenheimer favorite Thomas Robinson. If the team wanted him, they wouldn't be trading him. At least not on the cheap. But to be fair, we all know Nurk would be pouting playing on this post-Dame team. And there's always that "he just needs a fresh environment!" chance. So, I guess we won because of Camara..?

[JasonStern]

From reading what you are writing, I assume you are making the point that they are not bad backup NBA players and should be on those types of contracts?

So, can I assume that Cronin should offer them very team friendly contracts this off-season?

Do you think either player would be good being a backup?

These are the rhetorical questions that answer themselves. Ayton and Simons see themselves as stars and want to get paid as such (opinion). Ayton will not be happy being a backup to Clingan. Neither will Simons to Scoot.

So, isn't the best outcome to move them now (if you can get back something worthwhile) or just let them expire (given this new CBA)? I think the answer is yes.

They are mid-level players.
Total cap (up to the luxury tax, if lucky) / 14 or 15 man roster = average salary allotment per player.
Now, you want superstars that are maxed and deserving of a max contract. But, if you don't have those, that doesn't mean give someone like Evan Turner 2x the market price because you have the cap space.
Simons and Ayton could either be below average starters or above average bench players. Both have league talent. Both have flaws in their games. If you pay them according to that role, they are not bad players nor negative value.
Every time someone says that Simons or Ayton sucks, they are reinforcing why they haven't been moved. Their flaws are known and other GMs understand what they are getting. Plus, Simons and Ayton are expiring. So, why give up value now when you could potentially just sign them in the off-season for free?
Now, you hope that a GM is feeling pressure and makes a panic trade. And you absolutely take that. But that is not a guarantee. And the best chance of doing that is to let them be high usage chuckers putting up stats in their contract years. Trade deadline comes around, and Simons is putting up a top 5 ppg in the league. Ayton is being Domin-Ayton and not "what's new on Netflix?"-Ayton. But if you don't, the Blazers are a lottery team next year anyway. Just helps the tank. And, no harm - no foul. They get MLE tier contracts to match their on-court value add, or they walk and the Blazers don't lose them for nothing - they free up ~$50M in cap space.
As for whether Simons and Ayton would be cool in a backup role - probably not. But they aren't likely to start on a championship contender. If that opportunity presents itself, you thank them for their time here and move on. No team would ever look back and go, "No! I didn't give Anfernee Simons and DeAndre Ayton contracts matching Jeremie Grant!" But if they stayed, they know their role and like the guaranteed money and city/team/etc. My guess would you'd see a more chucker version of Simons and a the DGAF version of Ayton.

[JasonStern]

Ayton haters just can't get past that he was a former #1 pick that is currently paid $35.5M next season. If he was drafted mid-1st round and making $12-13M, he'd get the Timelord/RoLo love.
.

I don't care, at all, that Ayton was the #1 pick. It's irrelevant and has NEVER mattered to me. That draft was 7 years ago

and you are wrong. Ayton would never get a smidgen of love from me because I detest the kind of C he is. IMO, there is very little to like. A C who doesn't protect the rim; can't patrol the paint; can't switch onto perimeter players; is a poor screen-setter; and doesn't get to the FT line is bad at just about every important skill for a modern NBA C

I also think the notion that Cronin would have the stones to hold the line and re-sign Ayton for 12-15M/year is loopy. It would be 25M/year, minimum, gauging by the Nurkic-Simons-Grant re-signs

all this garbage chatter about Ayton on an MLE type contract is total deflection

Now you're doing the tin man or whatever Wizard of Oz reference argument.

If Ayton wants $25M/year, great! Best of luck. Same with Simons. Seem like nice enough guys. Hopefully there's a market for them. Just hopefully not here at that price.

Congrats on the brilliant analysis that Ayton is not Hakeem/Jokic/Prime Sabonis tier. I had not realized that prior to your post. How exactly do the Blazers get this Hakeem/Jokic/Prime Sabonis player? And if we can't, what is your plan at center? Play nobody because in your day, the Blazers had Walton? Clingan for 48 minutes a game? Pray Timelord has his first healthy season ever? Duop Reath? And, if that is your plan, how are any of those players better than playing Ayton ~20 minutes a game? Reminder that he is still under contract and teams aren't lining up to give us crates of gold and their finest furs for the ability to pay Ayton ~$35M.

Another non-basketball related analogy, since actual basketball seems to be going over everyone's head. You want to date a Victoria Secret super model, but sometimes, that just doesn't happen. So, it's last call. And there is a girl or two that you talked to earlier that seems nice and you could have fun going to an after party with. Low commitment on your part. Or, you can start complaining that the nice girl isn't a super model. And then drunk call Duop Reath. Yeah. That'll show that nice girl. 48 minutes of Duop Reath.