Making Sense of a Senseless Summer

[Wizenheimer]

After reviewing five hours of Yang Hansen's footage last night (check out the video I shared if you haven't!), I'm impressed by his youth and skillset for a center. He shows promising passing and post-play, but his struggles with the three-pointer and free throws are clear areas for development. While I believe he can be a solid rotation player or even a starter, his selection at 16, particularly after drafting Clingan, raises questions about our long-term big man strategy. For him to truly emulate players like Jokic or Sengun, he'll require a significant role in the offense... Meaning he needs the ball in his hands. Another concern is the coaching style, since the roster is built around defense and we lack shot creation, Yang will be best utilized in the half court as a high post facilitator which seemingly contradicts the high tempo Billups has been pushing for. Yang can run the floor though and even make nice reads in transition and even some full court passes ala Joker or vintage Love.

The recent draft and overall team direction have left me pretty upset. However, I've decided to channel that energy differently. I'm opting for a mindset of cautious optimism, prepared for the usual Blazer ups and (mostly)downs. My main focus is on the impending sale of the team and the fresh direction that new ownership will hopefully bring. Every bizarre move Joe and the FO makes will be another nail in his coffin, so I'm going to simply choose to laugh it off rather than waste my energy.

I'm looking forward to enjoying whatever positive moments the team provides this season, confident that next year will see a much-needed change in management and a clearer vision for the future.

I want to like the Blazers. And even though I'm more anti-Cronin than pro-Cronin, I want to like him, if for no other reason he's not the arrogant douchebag that Olshey was. I hated Olshey, with a passion, and his constant roster reboots drove me to drink, at least they would have if I hadn't already made the trip

certain players make it hard for me to watch the Blazers. For years it was CJ as option 1b. The last couple of season it was Simons and Ayton, I just can't stand those guys as players. Simons if gone and I'm thankful. If Ayton could get the boot, erasing one of Cronin's biggest mistakes, the Blazers would becomes must-watch TV again for me. They haven't been over the last 2 seasons, and that was a first for me since the Blazers have been appearing on broadcasts.

for some reason, Grant has never bugged me like he bugs some fans. His contract does, but as a player he doesn't. But it would be better if he was dumped, somehow

[The Sebastian Express]

Honestly my problem with Grant is not him and rather that Chauncey insisted on playing him last year when he was clearly very, very bad.

[zzaj]

After reviewing five hours of Yang Hansen's footage last night (check out the video I shared if you haven't!), I'm impressed by his youth and skillset for a center. He shows promising passing and post-play, but his struggles with the three-pointer and free throws are clear areas for development. While I believe he can be a solid rotation player or even a starter, his selection at 16, particularly after drafting Clingan, raises questions about our long-term big man strategy. For him to truly emulate players like Jokic or Sengun, he'll require a significant role in the offense... Meaning he needs the ball in his hands. Another concern is the coaching style, since the roster is built around defense and we lack shot creation, Yang will be best utilized in the half court as a high post facilitator which seemingly contradicts the high tempo Billups has been pushing for. Yang can run the floor though and even make nice reads in transition with the occasional full court pass ala Joker or vintage Love.

The recent draft and overall team direction have left me pretty upset... Clearly. However, I've decided to channel that energy differently. I'm opting for a mindset of cautious optimism, prepared for the usual Blazer ups and (mostly)downs. My main focus is on the impending sale of the team and the fresh direction that new ownership will hopefully bring. Every bizarre move Joe and the FO makes will be another nail in their coffin, so I'm going to simply choose to laugh it off rather than waste my energy.

I'm looking forward to enjoying whatever positive moments the team provides this season, confident that next year will see a much-needed change in management and a clearer vision for the future.

Case, thanks for posting that link...I haven't had time to watch it, but I will.

It's funny, after a day of perspective I'm not really that upset about Yang. I had him in my own Mock as a potential late first or early second. I see the potential there. I trust Raphael Barlowe's international scouting (since that's his specialty)...he's one of only a couple that had him in the first round. In the 20s I believe. This draft, I don't think there was that much difference in talent level and potential in a mid-teens pick and end of 1st pick. So (shrug)...

I also am not that upset about the duplicity this creates at the C position. Ultimately, you want a scouting dept. to draft on talent not position, especially for a team in Portland's W/L position, and with young players at every position on the court.

Now, personally? I think having Yang's talent over every other player that went 11 and higher is poor scouting...but I ain't no scout. I think the talent that was there for the taking at 11 is better long-term than the return of Yang + ORL's unrestricted FRP. But I could most certainly be wrong.

Like you, I'm trying to feel into the relief of new ownership on the horizon. We've had a lot of years of Olshey/Cronin...and while things could certainly be worse, I think we're all ready for a change--a new, different coat of paint on the house.

I also don't think the team is directionless...I think they've identified Defense as the rallying point and are moving things forward in that direction. Jrue is very easily a better player overall than Simons, especially defensively, so there will be some fun defensive lineups this coming season.

Scoot and Sharpe aren't very good at defense, and I think they are going to feel a minutes pinch because of it. IMHO, Cronin's lack of wanting to rebuild makes this more confusing than it needs to be. You'd THINK that a number 3 and 7 pick would have a developmental pipeline into starting roles in 3+ years, but Cronin either doesn't have the Player Development piece in place, Scoot and Sharpe just really aren't that good of prospects and his drafting was poor, or he's prioritizing winning with vets. More than one of those can be true...confusing but true. From a fan perspective, I think Cronin has been a terrible general manager. I have no idea how he'd look to an owner.

I remain optimistic for some kind of Ayton trade. I'd like to see big minutes for Clingan to see what his offensive development looks like, and rookie tracking is one of the main reasons I tune into 82 games...so Yang minutes would be fun. With Ayton on the roster I doubt he plays much. My hope is that there is a 3-way with a shooting depth player and picks coming back to Portland.

[DusterBuster]

Honestly my problem with Grant is not him and rather that Chauncey insisted on playing him last year when he was clearly very, very bad.

I mean, he's a very and high paid. Those guys will always get first crack at starting and PT in almost any situation with any coach - especially ex-player coaches.

Grant is just a bad fit on the team at this point. He, like Simons, was a hold-over from the Dame era. With this new team they've been building, he's just a weird fit, and that was made even more awkward by the Deni trade and him showing out that he could be a building block kind of player.

[JasonStern]

...With the Lakers selling for $10B, there's at least a 50% chance the Blazers relocate. When you pay $3-4B for a franchise, ~$500M in exit fees isn't as significant as the revenue gain from moving to Seattle, Vegas, etc...

While I don't think anybody really has the authority to say there is no chance that the Blazers will be moved, I think the statement that there's "at least a 50% chance the Blazers relocate" isn't accurate. Everything that we've heard from people supposedly in the know and with ties to the NBA has been that the association is opposed overall to any team relocating. There are many other reasons that indicate the Blazers specifically won't move that I won't get into, but one stands out in your statement...even though Seattle has about a million more people than Portland they also have MLB and NFL to compete for fan sports dollars. Las Vegas is smaller than Portland and already has NFL and soon is getting MLB. With less competition for NBA sport fan dollars in Portland, it's unlikely that it'd be more profitable for an owner or ownership group to move a team to one of those other cities.

Again, nobody can say it won't happen. But more than 50%? I think that's hyperbolic...probably more like less than 5% chance.

(Hands over a pill bottle of copium).
Riiight.
The league would totally block a team moving. Just like when Clay Bennett said the Sonics were staying in Seattle. Or Prokhorov wouldn't move the Nets out of New Jersey.
The Moda Center is 30 years old. - "But we installed new urinals!!" Neat. Still one of the oldest facilities in the NBA.
You can claim Vegas is saturated, but it's a tourist destination. Much of the attendance isn't actual residents. 8 football games a year and baseball during the off-season is not going to make an NBA team in Las Vegas not economically viable. And they are far more likely to subsidize any team in order to keep that tourism revenue incoming.
Seattle is a better market. San Diego is a better market. Arguably, a second team in the Bay Area or Chicago could make more sense.
Honestly, if someone spent billions on a team, the other owners likely get some kick-back and aren't going to veto a new owner.
Seattle and San Diego are easy sells, as they already had teams that relocated. So, it's just bringing them back. Might have some issues with the Clippers, but either team rebranding isn't a deal breaker.
So yeah, 50% chance. BOLD claim of the day - it depends on who buys the team. But if you get a Bezos or Huang, why would they not move the team to Seattle? Zuckerberg the Bay? Musk Mars? (Tough road schedule!).
Insert some random, justified Wizenheimer rant about Portland being a fairly small market that is not able to attract free agents. And someone is spending billions on this? Who is the buyer? If they don't have a vested interest in the Portland area, why? How many people or companies can even afford the Blazers? Uncle Phil might check the boxes, but he already owns a men's basketball team, women's basketball team, football team (we natty 2026), the greatest track team the world has ever seen, a baseball team - leave it at that, a softball team - leave it at that, and competent women's volleyball team.

[DusterBuster]

OK...sure...Cronin may pull more rabbits out of his hat before the season starts. A blind fool can see that there are still issues with this roster

And one of the issues could be a condemning reflection of either the Cronin/Billups synergy; or the Cronin/Shmitz partnership: the very real possibility that for 4 straight seasons Portland has been in the lottery and none of the picks will be starting when next season begins. Don't think that's possible? Well, consider this:

* over the last 3 seasons, Simons started 178 of 178 games and averaged 34 minutes
* over the last 3 seasons, Grant started 164 of 164 games and averaged 34 minutes
* since Ayton arrived, he started 95 of 95 games, and averaged 31 minutes

Chauncey has proven, for 3 straight years, that he favors the veterans. And he's going to be in a win-now mode next season. So far, Grant and Ayton are still Blazers...they start. Jrue will start, that's just about certain. Camara has started 97 straight games; that's not going to change. And of course, the best player last season was Avdija; he'll start, right? Jrue-Camara-Grant-Avdija-Ayton. That's the likely starting 5. Does anybody really believe Chanuncey will bench one of those guys?

I don't know, it just seems when in consecutive seasons, a franchise has the 7th-3rd-7th-11th picks and in year 4, none are starters there is s major issue with talent evaluation. But obviously, that hasn't happened...YET. The shiny can keeps getting kicked down the road

************************************************************************

but yeah, we're not there yet and Cronin may have more moves lined up. Rumors seem to suggest that. And 5 C's? Really? He was certainly busy in 2022. But since then, his season pattern has kind of been one major trade and a draft pick. He may be done until the trade deadline

I disagree with those saying the Blazers will be worse. Yeah, they lost the shooting of Simons, but they exchanged the absolutely terrible defense of Simons for the very solid defense of Jrue; and he's still solid even at 35.

one, kind of, controlling stat is net rating; the differential between offensive rating and defensive rating. That net kind of matches team records. Here has been the Blazer net rating over the last 4 years:

2021-22: -9.1
2022-23: -4.0 (the Dame factor)
2023-24: -9.2
2024-25: -3.0

generally, you can look at the net rating and pretty much predict what the records will be. A net rating of 0.0 generally predicts a .500 record

so, the Blazers were at -3.0 last season; an off rating of 111.7; a def rating of 114.7. Blazers 'only' ranked 16th in defense last season, but there are many reason to expect their defense to be even better next season. It's possible the defensive improvement will be enough to erase that -3.0 deficit. On paper, losing Simons might bump the offense down....might. But, while Holiday isn't the shooter Simons is; he's the pure PG Simons isn't and his ability to run the offense may more than offset any imagined loss from the absence of Simons

so I'd anticipate a net rating closer to 0.0...+/- 1.0. That seems like maybe underrating the potential a bit. But the mitigation is that, overall, the West may actually be better next season. For instance, the Blazers were 2 games better than the Spurs last season. But the Spurs only got 46 games from Wemby and 17 from Fox; and Sochan missed 28 games. Yeah, Blazer had lots of missed games too, but Wemby and Fox are on different levels than Blazer players. Also, the Spurs had a great draft. Dylan Harper is a stud; and Carter Bryant is likely to have a bigger impact than Yang.

so then, 39-43 wins may get the Blazers into the back end of the play-in. 43 wins would be a 7 win improvement, and that's substantial. More than that? Possible but also, unprobable

but that all assumes the roster is pretty much set and all Cronin may do till the trade deadline is rearrange the deck chairs in the back rows of the rotation. Sorry for the TLDR essay

Great breakdown, and essentially I've come largely to the conclusion you have. Injuries aside, I actually suspect Portland can legit compete for a playoff spot in the West next year. Whatever Vegas has them at, I would take the over. Obviously injuries will play a large role, but this will be the 3rd year of this group largely together, the odd Simons fit is over with a real offense driver at the helm with Holiday and a pretty revamped offensive scheme that I think will take teams a minute to get used to. The flip side is some possible growing pains, but Holiday is used to playing and directing an offense led by a playmaking PF like Deni (Giannis and Tatum), so I suspect the improvement in overall BBIQ and fit is going to help a lot more than people suspect.

You can pretty much pencil in right now a handful of teams that should clearly be worse than the Blazers in the West, outside of something unexpected, the Pelicans, Kings, Suns and Jazz should all be considerably worse. I think GS could be a sneaky bad team, particularly if either Steph or Jimmy battle injuries... Jimmy also doesn't really try hard until the last few months of the year. Memphis is also a questionmark team, Ja is super injury prone and they lost a big piece in Bane and hoping for a rookie to fill that role... so we'll see. So I think Portland is somewhere in the 11-8 or 7 seed range if all goes well.

[soobias]

let me add my 2 cents

i know we're all blazer fans some longer than others, but if you've been around long enough you'd know nothing should be surprising lol.
I've been numb to management since N.O. took over and P.A. passed away. and don't like most coaches since jack Ramsey, so were OK with what they worked with some underachieved imo . but I've become use to blazers doing things like this and staying mediocre .
i think we all have an opion on who they should draft, trade for, pickup in free agency but for the most part they never do llol.
if the roster stay the same, there's no way jrue,grant ayton are not starting for the amount of money the blazers are paying them plus it would lower their trade value.
i dont buy into their scouting either for the picks of sharpe and scoot are very underwhelming . know they're young still but you can kinda tell how most turn out, not saying they're not going to be decent N.B.A. players but hay. also are coaching/development staff arent the greatest imo.
i think trader Bob and K.P tried to trade us out of the curse but man sometimes it looks bleak lmao.
i think last time i was excited about this team was when we had roy,la,oden and crew and tbpup use to have the hold on to your shorts now i feel like im always waiting for the other shoe to drop lol
go BLAZERS!!!!!!!

[mighty_duck]

Jrue-Camara-Grant-Avdija-Ayton. That's the likely starting 5. Does anybody really believe Chanuncey will bench one of those guys?

Spot-on analysis Wiz.

That starting 5 can compete on the defensive end with any team in the league. Switch everything!
To think you have even more (and better) defensive firepower on the bench in TL, DC and Mattise, and I think that is our identity for next season.
Ayton will even look better - his biggest shortcoming on defense is not being a great shotblocker/ clean up man. Without having to clean up a Ant/Sharpe backcourt, he'll be fine. He does ok (when motivated) guarding opposing centers or the occasional switch.

Sharpe can and will challenge Grant's spot on the starting lineup, starting from training camp. Maybe this will be the year he finally uses his physical tools to be a star in this league.
Scoot will benefit from Jrue's mentoring. And while he will need to compete for minutes, he can share the court with Jrue more easily than he did with Ant.

[Dame Lizard]

I'd have Masai over Cronin in a heartbeat, after Toronto fired Masai.

[dckingsfan]

OK...sure...Cronin may pull more rabbits out of his hat before the season starts. A blind fool can see that there are still issues with this roster

And one of the issues could be a condemning reflection of either the Cronin/Billups synergy; or the Cronin/Shmitz partnership: the very real possibility that for 4 straight seasons Portland has been in the lottery and none of the picks will be starting when next season begins. Don't think that's possible? Well, consider this:

* over the last 3 seasons, Simons started 178 of 178 games and averaged 34 minutes
* over the last 3 seasons, Grant started 164 of 164 games and averaged 34 minutes
* since Ayton arrived, he started 95 of 95 games, and averaged 31 minutes

Chauncey has proven, for 3 straight years, that he favors the veterans. And he's going to be in a win-now mode next season. So far, Grant and Ayton are still Blazers...they start. Jrue will start, that's just about certain. Camara has started 97 straight games; that's not going to change. And of course, the best player last season was Avdija; he'll start, right? Jrue-Camara-Grant-Avdija-Ayton. That's the likely starting 5. Does anybody really believe Chanuncey will bench one of those guys?

I don't know, it just seems when in consecutive seasons, a franchise has the 7th-3rd-7th-11th picks and in year 4, none are starters there is s major issue with talent evaluation. But obviously, that hasn't happened...YET. The shiny can keeps getting kicked down the road

************************************************************************

but yeah, we're not there yet and Cronin may have more moves lined up. Rumors seem to suggest that. And 5 C's? Really? He was certainly busy in 2022. But since then, his season pattern has kind of been one major trade and a draft pick. He may be done until the trade deadline

I disagree with those saying the Blazers will be worse. Yeah, they lost the shooting of Simons, but they exchanged the absolutely terrible defense of Simons for the very solid defense of Jrue; and he's still solid even at 35.

one, kind of, controlling stat is net rating; the differential between offensive rating and defensive rating. That net kind of matches team records. Here has been the Blazer net rating over the last 4 years:

2021-22: -9.1
2022-23: -4.0 (the Dame factor)
2023-24: -9.2
2024-25: -3.0

generally, you can look at the net rating and pretty much predict what the records will be. A net rating of 0.0 generally predicts a .500 record

so, the Blazers were at -3.0 last season; an off rating of 111.7; a def rating of 114.7. Blazers 'only' ranked 16th in defense last season, but there are many reason to expect their defense to be even better next season. It's possible the defensive improvement will be enough to erase that -3.0 deficit. On paper, losing Simons might bump the offense down....might. But, while Holiday isn't the shooter Simons is; he's the pure PG Simons isn't and his ability to run the offense may more than offset any imagined loss from the absence of Simons

so I'd anticipate a net rating closer to 0.0...+/- 1.0. That seems like maybe underrating the potential a bit. But the mitigation is that, overall, the West may actually be better next season. For instance, the Blazers were 2 games better than the Spurs last season. But the Spurs only got 46 games from Wemby and 17 from Fox; and Sochan missed 28 games. Yeah, Blazer had lots of missed games too, but Wemby and Fox are on different levels than Blazer players. Also, the Spurs had a great draft. Dylan Harper is a stud; and Carter Bryant is likely to have a bigger impact than Yang.

so then, 39-43 wins may get the Blazers into the back end of the play-in. 43 wins would be a 7 win improvement, and that's substantial. More than that? Possible but also, unprobable

but that all assumes the roster is pretty much set and all Cronin may do till the trade deadline is rearrange the deck chairs in the back rows of the rotation. Sorry for the TLDR essay

Great breakdown, and essentially I've come largely to the conclusion you have. Injuries aside, I actually suspect Portland can legit compete for a playoff spot in the West next year. Whatever Vegas has them at, I would take the over. Obviously injuries will play a large role, but this will be the 3rd year of this group largely together, the odd Simons fit is over with a real offense driver at the helm with Holiday and a pretty revamped offensive scheme that I think will take teams a minute to get used to. The flip side is some possible growing pains, but Holiday is used to playing and directing an offense led by a playmaking PF like Deni (Giannis and Tatum), so I suspect the improvement in overall BBIQ and fit is going to help a lot more than people suspect.

You can pretty much pencil in right now a handful of teams that should clearly be worse than the Blazers in the West, outside of something unexpected, the Pelicans, Kings, Suns and Jazz should all be considerably worse. I think GS could be a sneaky bad team, particularly if either Steph or Jimmy battle injuries... Jimmy also doesn't really try hard until the last few months of the year. Memphis is also a questionmark team, Ja is super injury prone and they lost a big piece in Bane and hoping for a rookie to fill that role... so we'll see. So I think Portland is somewhere in the 11-8 or 7 seed range if all goes well.

Interesting analysis. Looking at it slightly differently OKC, Houston will be much better. LAL, LAC, Denver, Minny, Dallas & SA will be solidly better. So that is the top 8. But... a substantial injury could derail one of those teams.

GS - if they stay healthy, they would be tough to catch. Memphis - what does Ja do?

So, we could sneak into the play-in with say 40 wins. That is "only" a 4 game improvement. I can see one of Camara, Clingan or Scoot breaking out and then Bob's your uncle - you are in. Still, things would very much need to go the Blazer's way for this to happen.

[DusterBuster]

Interesting analysis. Looking at it slightly differently OKC, Houston will be much better. LAL, LAC, Denver, Minny, Dallas & SA will be solidly better. So that is the top 8. But... a substantial injury could derail one of those teams.

GS - if they stay healthy, they would be tough to catch. Memphis - what does Ja do?

So, we could sneak into the play-in with say 40 wins. That is "only" a 4 game improvement. I can see one of Camara, Clingan or Scoot breaking out and then Bob's your uncle - you are in. Still, things would very much need to go the Blazer's way for this to happen.

I might throw LAL in the "iffy" category too. One year older LBJ, and while I'm sure Luka is motivated and getting in shape, he's still never been the picture of health. The rest of that team is kinda mid still too and they haven't gotten their big man yet... bit too early to tell, but on the fence with them.

Definitely better tho are OKC, Houston (will be interesting to see how the KD fit works... he's not an auto-improves the team guy anymore), Denver, Minny, SA (probably if Wemby stays healthy and Harper is what he was billed to be), and LAC. Dallas I hesitate to auto throw in there, Cooper needs to be Day 1 dominant and AD needs to stay healthy... we also gotta see who they get at PG (sounds like they're gonna target DLo in FA).

I guess my point is, who the hell knows. So many of the teams that are "better" than Portland in the West right now are one or two bad breaks from being way worse than we expect and being next years Sixers.

I'd have Masai over Cronin in a heartbeat, after Toronto fired Masai.

I'm sure keeping a side eye on Masai's future over the next couple years. If he takes a 12-16mo off from the NBA and then decides to come back for another FO job... it would sure align with new ownership in Portland timing wise... and if they want to clean-house of the previous regime right away, he would sure be someone new owners would look at as "we're serious about winning" and point to him being a champion creator.

I'm not nearly as high on Masai myself. I've been pretty critical of him for doing some of the same things we've all bashed Olshey and Cronin for, getting too high on their own supply and taking too long to move players. He truly pissed away all value of Siakam and OG by way overvaluing them when the time clock was running on their contacts, then having to move them for pennies on the dollar cause they were expiring. He also really overvalued Barnes' ability to be a cornerstone guy. So yeah, I wouldn't be super stoked on it as I think it would be more of the same, but he at least has done one thing no other Blazer GM has done since the late 90's... take a big swing trade for a superstar.

[oldfishermen]

The better teams can fall off a cliff overnight with one stroke of bad luck.

This time last year, the Celtics were celebrating winning the ring. Today, they are ripping apart the team.

[dckingsfan]

The better teams can fall off a cliff overnight with one stroke of bad luck.

This time last year, the Celtics were celebrating winning the ring. Today, they are ripping apart the team.

I guess my point is, who the hell knows. So many of the teams that are "better" than Portland in the West right now are one or two bad breaks from being way worse than we expect and being next years Sixers.

Remind me - is hope a strategy

I feel you though - I am NOT saying Portland should tank. They should do like last year and go out and figure out a way to be better.

I think my analysis stands though (baring injuries or other large trades).

[DusterBuster]

The better teams can fall off a cliff overnight with one stroke of bad luck.

This time last year, the Celtics were celebrating winning the ring. Today, they are ripping apart the team.

I guess my point is, who the hell knows. So many of the teams that are "better" than Portland in the West right now are one or two bad breaks from being way worse than we expect and being next years Sixers.

Remind me - is hope a strategy

I feel you though - I am NOT saying Portland should tank. They should do like last year and go out and figure out a way to be better.

I think my analysis stands though (baring injuries or other large trades).

I'm certainly not saying it's a strategy by an stretch of the imagination. Blazers have lacked a coherent roster building strategy since they moved Dame. But you're kidding yourself if you don't think luck plays an oversized part in how good teams get or how far they go in the playoffs. So I was simply saying that Portland could be better than we think by stint of another year together of growth, a better led roster from a veteran perspective, then you have the massive health factor (which goes for all teams).

Just simply saying, no one knows whats going to happen for anyone.

[DusterBuster]

I guess because it’s been such a weird summer, I just don’t know what this team is going to be. Nothing would shock me. They could be a 32 win team or a 45 win team.

[dckingsfan]

The better teams can fall off a cliff overnight with one stroke of bad luck.

This time last year, the Celtics were celebrating winning the ring. Today, they are ripping apart the team.

I guess my point is, who the hell knows. So many of the teams that are "better" than Portland in the West right now are one or two bad breaks from being way worse than we expect and being next years Sixers.

Remind me - is hope a strategy

I feel you though - I am NOT saying Portland should tank. They should do like last year and go out and figure out a way to be better.

I think my analysis stands though (baring injuries or other large trades).

I'm certainly not saying it's a strategy by an stretch of the imagination. Blazers have lacked a coherent roster building strategy since they moved Dame. But you're kidding yourself if you don't think luck plays an oversized part in how good teams get or how far they go in the playoffs. So I was simply saying that Portland could be better than we think by stint of another year together of growth, a better led roster from a veteran perspective, then you have the massive health factor (which goes for all teams).

Just simply saying, no one knows whats going to happen for anyone.

Interesting. So this is considered the appeal to probability fallacy (possibiliter ergo probabiliter).

The likely outcome is that most teams won't have debilitating injuries that derail a "good" team from making the playoffs. In this case the probability is high that the teams that are better will stay that way (conservation of momentum).

Now, if you are saying you want to watch the improvement of the team year over year and hope for a breakout of one of the younger players - right there with you. That is the fun of being a fan. Hope is our strategy because we have no influence over the process.

But for a FO to take the same tactic - well. As Sun Tsu would say, "tactics without strategy are the noise before defeat..."

[m0ng0]

Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni and Clingan is not a solid core? It's young of course, but full of potential, sorry MJ was not available in the draft.

[Walton1one]

Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni and Clingan is not a solid core? It's young of course, but full of potential, sorry MJ was not available in the draft.

I thought they drafted him? Yang?

[DC_Melo]

Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni and Clingan is not a solid core? It's young of course, but full of potential, sorry MJ was not available in the draft.

Let’s be real… if he was available, we’d probably pass on him again

[m0ng0]

Scoot, Sharpe, Camara, Deni and Clingan is not a solid core? It's young of course, but full of potential, sorry MJ was not available in the draft.

I thought they drafted him? Yang?

If you want him fired so badly than this is the perfect scenario, start an email campaign, make signs, pick a spot in Portland to burn, graffiti is effective, make flyers, start a podcast, knit little dog sweaters for corgis that's says NO JOE! Get a treadmill and set it up by that fire thing at Moda and just wave at people and say Hi my name is Joe would you like to treadmill with me? Might make some friends and definitely work those legs, good cardio too... get your followers to come to YOU, instead of trolling this place day and night with the same DREK day after day, maybe get a head start on the 2026 draft?

We are here for ya buddy