EuroBasket: Deni Watch

[DusterBuster]

I never said that top-7 picks should be all-stars

what I said was a 7th pick and a 3rd pick should, by their 3rd & 4th seasons, be starters, especially on a lottery/play-in level team. If they aren't, then the selections were borderline fails

Blazer top -10ish history:

8th pick - Geoff Petrie - immediate starter
2nd pick - Sydney - immediate starter
1st pick - Larue Martin - monumental fail (picked after: Bob McAdoo; Julius Erving; Paul Westphal)
1st pick - Bill Walton - immediate starter
6th pick - Lionel Hollins - immediate starter
5th pick - Wally Walker - fail (picked after: Adrian Dantley; Quinn Buckner; Robert Parish, Alex English; Dennis Johnson)
1st pick - Mychal Thompson - immediate starter
2nd pick - Sam Bowie - immediate starter, when healthy...but Jordan, Barkley, Stockton after
6th pick - Martell Webster - backup-fail - bench/backup - b (picked after: CP3, Deron Williams, Danny Granger, David Lee)
2nd pick - LMA - full time starter in 2nd season after Zach traded
6th pick - Brandon Roy - immediate starter
1st pick - Greg Oden - "oh the humanity!"
6th pick - Dame - immediate starter

7th pick - Sharpe - has only started half of the games he's played and was benched for 'defense' in his 3rd season
3rd pick - Scoot - backup/bench
7th pick - Clingan - designated starter in 2nd season

of those 13 top-10-ish picks in prior Blazer history, either they were immediate starters or they were failures; no middle ground (unless you consider Martell middle ground). 8 were immediate starters; 5 were failures; two of those because of repeated injuries

certainly, if Sharpe or Scoot become solid starters before their rookie-scale is over than the pick(s) could be deemed successful; but this is Sharpe's 4th season and last season of rookie scale. But if they don't it's hard to justify. Teams just don't normally get lots of chances in the top half of a lottery and they need to maximize success when they do.

again, Schmitz has had 3 consecutive drafts with top-7 picks. If in the 4th season of that string, only one of those picks has established himself enough to be a starter, that sure looks like failure to me. Now, I think there's a pretty good chance that Sharpe will start; but it is Chauncey and he has never brought Grant off the bench. Speaking of Chauncey, that brings up the possibility that if Ayton hadn't asked for a buy-out it could be that none of those 3, top-7 picks would be starters this season....ouch!

**************************************************************************************

unrelated, mostly, but looking at that 2005 draft: Deron Williams vs CP3. There was legitimate debate for a number of years about who was better. The thing is Williams retired in 2017 while Paul is still playing 8 years later, and will play this season as well

I wasn't trying to suggest you specifically, but others on the site.

I also agree, they SHOULD be starters, it's one of the biggest things I've been massively critical about Cronin for.

All those other guys you listed we're given full runway from Day 1 to be starts since they were drafted. Scoot and Sharpe never were given that same opportunity. I don't find their lack of being starters that you mention fully their own fault or the fault of Schmitz. Even guys who flamed out like Webster were thrown to the wolves as a starter from Day 1 to sink or swim. Aldridge and Roy weren't day 1 starters because their talent demanded it, it's because the team knew they were garbage and in a full rebuild mode and leaned into letting players learn through mistakes.

Scoot has never been truly given that opportunity, Sharpe... yes and no / off and on. Clingan might be the first top 10 pick of the rebuild to fully get that opportunity, but only because Cronin's hand was forced when Ayton demanded out.

So again, I'm not willing to just lay the blame squarely on Schmitz as being a bad talent evaluator and I'm laying blame on Cronin for not giving his high picked investments the runway to play through growing pains as a full time starter. The dual timeline **** (that I really **** hate of this rebuild) has tainted these players development imo where I don't agree with the comps you're trying to make since in no other scenario has the team tried to pull this stupid retool plan.

[Wizenheimer]

I wasn't trying to suggest you specifically, but others on the site.

I also agree, they SHOULD be starters, it's one of the biggest things I've been massively critical about Cronin for.

All those other guys you listed we're given full runway from Day 1 to be starts since they were drafted. Scoot and Sharpe never were given that same opportunity. I don't find their lack of being starters that you mention fully their own fault or the fault of Schmitz. Even guys who flamed out like Webster were thrown to the wolves as a starter from Day 1 to sink or swim. Scoot has never been truly given that opportunity, Sharpe... yes and no / off and on.

Clingan might be the first top 10 pick of the rebuild to fully get that opportunity, but only because Cronin's hand was forced when Ayton demanded out.

So again, I'm not willing to just lay the blame squarely on Schmitz as being a bad talent evaluator and more laying blame on Cronin for not giving his high picked investments the runway to play through growing pains as a full time starter. The dual timeline **** (that I really **** hate of this rebuild) has tainted these players development imo where I don't agree with the comps you're trying to make since in no other scenario has the team tried to pull this stupid retool plan.

I think we're probably in agreement, mostly, on this. I'm not saying Schmitz should be fired. I'm just saying that his rep as some kind of talent evaluating genius has taken some hits

and yeah the fence-straddling dual-timeline of the F.O. has lots of blame here. Portland drafted Aldridge when Zach was in the way. They traded Zach the following summer clearing the runway for Aldridge

But Sharpe spent 3 years deferring to Simons; Scoot has spent 2 years as a backup to Simons; and Clingan was averaging 15 minutes/game until Ayton got injured. Portland should have traded Simons when they traded Dame and they never should ave traded for Ayton. To have those two guys on the roster at 65M/year when they were blatantly tanking was insanity

the irritating thing is that last season, among the Blazers 2-man combos, the combo of Scoot/Sharpe was the 4th best combo on the team. At this point Sharpe/Scoot should have started 100 games together, and played big minutes when they did. Instead, that's only happened 23 times

[zzaj]

I'm in agreement here...for a team that hasn't been close to PO contention since a #3 and #7 draft pick were made, it's a good indication of the "straddle" that's happened that those picks don't have a clear path as starters.

IMO, the team can't really have it both ways--they can't have two picks in the Top 10 that aren't no-question starting caliber players on a bad team, and also call those picks good picks.

There is a slim chance that both Scoot and Sharpe break out and become undeniable starters on the Blazers--I'd say the chances of that happening are pretty small at this point. Based on what we can all guess Billups' lineups will be, both would have to have a larger court impact than probably Holiday and Camara (and eventually, hopefully, Lillard).

I get there is a component of gambling when picks are made. But clearly, the stakes are much higher when the picks are higher. Teams can not afford a lot of mediocre results when making top-7 picks. For a team like Portland that never attracts all-star level free agents, the only 2 ways to get elite talent is the draft or trades; and those trades usually require a draft pick coming back as the way to get that talent

there's another factor that needs to be noted too: it may be that the 'best' pick of the three top-7 picks the Blazers made was Clingan. Here's the thing: Schmitz/Cronin had a 74 game NCAA career for Clingan to evaluate and gauge. And that included a dozen post-season games. That's a lot of opportunities to gauge a player against top-level competition

but with Sharpe and Scoot, Schmitz had exactly 0 games of NCAA level action to gauge. He was taking a much bigger risk of failure and excusing that kind of gamble isn't a persuasive argument to me

I'd be prone to assuming that the Blazer front office may already have judged Scoot a wasted pick. I just can't see a 3rd pick used on a PG and two years later, the same team trades for a PG, then signs another veteran PG if they really believe Scoot is the PGOTF

Yeah, no real argument from me here about any of these points...

Sharpe was always going to be a long-shot that has never shown plus defense. Scoot never played high level basketball as a PG. Sometimes at the top of a draft teams are shooting the moon on potential rather than guarantees.

As for Scoot in the context of Holiday and Lillard--my hope is that Holiday was more about getting ANYTHING of value for Simons, and especially one that seemed to support the positional versatility and defensive qualities that seem en vogue with the team currently. But who knows...I'd certainly rather have Holiday on the team than Simons, regardless of future contract considerations. Lillard? My hope is that was more about bringing a franchise great back into the fold as a show of fan support, with outside potential of getting decent production on a good deal. I can't really fault the team for that one. The timing of it seems weird and awkward, but the opportunity and willingness was there from both parties and Cronin jumped on it.

[m0ng0]

How did Deni do in the euros? Good bad? Certainly we have enough threads for management bashing aye?

[DusterBuster]

I wasn't trying to suggest you specifically, but others on the site.

I also agree, they SHOULD be starters, it's one of the biggest things I've been massively critical about Cronin for.

All those other guys you listed we're given full runway from Day 1 to be starts since they were drafted. Scoot and Sharpe never were given that same opportunity. I don't find their lack of being starters that you mention fully their own fault or the fault of Schmitz. Even guys who flamed out like Webster were thrown to the wolves as a starter from Day 1 to sink or swim. Scoot has never been truly given that opportunity, Sharpe... yes and no / off and on.

Clingan might be the first top 10 pick of the rebuild to fully get that opportunity, but only because Cronin's hand was forced when Ayton demanded out.

So again, I'm not willing to just lay the blame squarely on Schmitz as being a bad talent evaluator and more laying blame on Cronin for not giving his high picked investments the runway to play through growing pains as a full time starter. The dual timeline **** (that I really **** hate of this rebuild) has tainted these players development imo where I don't agree with the comps you're trying to make since in no other scenario has the team tried to pull this stupid retool plan.

I think we're probably in agreement, mostly, on this. I'm not saying Schmitz should be fired. I'm just saying that his rep as some kind of talent evaluating genius has taken some hits

and yeah the fence-straddling dual-timeline of the F.O. has lots of blame here. Portland drafted Aldridge when Zach was in the way. They traded Zach the following summer clearing the runway for Aldridge

But Sharpe spent 3 years deferring to Simons; Scoot has spent 2 years as a backup to Simons; and Clingan was averaging 15 minutes/game until Ayton got injured. Portland should have traded Simons when they traded Dame and they never should ave traded for Ayton. To have those two guys on the roster at 65M/year when they were blatantly tanking was insanity

the irritating thing is that last season, among the Blazers 2-man combos, the combo of Scoot/Sharpe was the 4th best combo on the team. At this point Sharpe/Scoot should have started 100 games together, and played big minutes when they did. Instead, that's only happened 23 times

I'm also not trying to call Schmitz a "genius" at talent evaluation. I think he's better than average. The NBA average among most teams is pretty sub-par. Even the Spurs (Wemby and Castle aside obviously - which were no brainer picks) and "lightyears ahead" Warriors who supposedly had amazing scouting staffs have just had a string of high pick wiffs. It just happens in the NBA, even high in the lottery. Some things are just out of your control as a team and some things also are just a byproduct of situation.

I'm not here to lump undo praise on Schmitz, but I think the pendulum has swung now too far in the opposite direction. His early reputation as a wunderkind scout has now turned into some people here unduly crapping on him as overrated and ****, when that's just a unwarranted as the initial hype was. I think he's been a B ish level scout. That's better than the league average of C- scouts imo.

Most of the guys he's taken have proven to be - at minimum - rotational NBA players and with room to grow given their age and somewhat uneven opportunities the franchise has provided them early in their careers. Certainly some swing and misses as every single GM/scout has, but the average of functional player to full on bust is what you would hope for out of a FO exec.

[DusterBuster]

How did Deni do in the euros? Good bad? Certainly we have enough threads for management bashing aye?

Gave my thoughts alongside the mgmt bashing comments.

Overall I don't think anyone can look at Deni's performance and say it was anything other than extremely impressive. I think he's shown he can be a Sengun-like player where a lot of the teams offense runs around him and could even be an All Star level player (tho admittedly tough in the West if the Blazers aren't a top 4 team somehow).

But also like Sengun, he needs help. He's not a carry-the-team-on-his-back player. When up against the best of the best (I.e. Luka and Giannis), the talent difference was glaring - but that's true for everyone, so not really a knock on Deni.

[oldfishermen]

Happy for Deni.

Not to discount his good play. But most of the NBA players had their way. Even Nurkic played well.

[dckingsfan]

I mean Deni was really good. Both against Giannis and against Luka. What I saw (and this could be projection) is a player that is going to break into the top 50 in the league (I think you need to be top 15 in the west to become an all-star?).

Against Giannis 22 on 5/11, 3 rebounds, 1 assist 4 TOS and 2 steals. They lost by 5 points, mostly because Greece took 75 shots to Israel's 59. Greece had 18 offensive rebounds because Israel just didn't have a big that could effectively rebound (part of that is on Deni).

Against Luka, Deni had 34 points on 22 shots, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers and 2 steals. They should have won that game.

So, maybe not on their Giannis level but... well, isn't he one of the top 5 in the league?

[DusterBuster]

I mean Deni was really good. Both against Giannis and against Luka. What I saw (and this could be projection) is a player that is going to break into the top 50 in the league (I think you need to be top 15 in the west to become an all-star?).

Against Giannis 22 on 5/11, 3 rebounds, 1 assist 4 TOS and 2 steals. They lost by 5 points, mostly because Greece took 75 shots to Israel's 59. Greece had 18 offensive rebounds because Israel just didn't have a big that could effectively rebound (part of that is on Deni).

Against Luka, Deni had 34 points on 22 shots, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers and 2 steals. They should have won that game.

So, maybe not on their Giannis level but... well, isn't he one of the top 5 in the league?

How do you mean top 5? Like top 5 top 5 of the whole NBA? Because the answer to that is categorically and emphatically no.

[dckingsfan]

I mean Deni was really good. Both against Giannis and against Luka. What I saw (and this could be projection) is a player that is going to break into the top 50 in the league (I think you need to be top 15 in the west to become an all-star?).

Against Giannis 22 on 5/11, 3 rebounds, 1 assist 4 TOS and 2 steals. They lost by 5 points, mostly because Greece took 75 shots to Israel's 59. Greece had 18 offensive rebounds because Israel just didn't have a big that could effectively rebound (part of that is on Deni).

Against Luka, Deni had 34 points on 22 shots, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers and 2 steals. They should have won that game.

So, maybe not on their Giannis level but... well, isn't he one of the top 5 in the league?

How do you mean top 5? Like top 5 top 5 of the whole NBA? Because the answer to that is categorically and emphatically no.

HA! I am saying Giannis is a top 5 player in the league I am saying that Deni is "trending" toward a top 50 player.

[Wizenheimer]

I mean Deni was really good. Both against Giannis and against Luka. What I saw (and this could be projection) is a player that is going to break into the top 50 in the league (I think you need to be top 15 in the west to become an all-star?).

Against Giannis 22 on 5/11, 3 rebounds, 1 assist 4 TOS and 2 steals. They lost by 5 points, mostly because Greece took 75 shots to Israel's 59. Greece had 18 offensive rebounds because Israel just didn't have a big that could effectively rebound (part of that is on Deni).

Against Luka, Deni had 34 points on 22 shots, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers and 2 steals. They should have won that game.

So, maybe not on their Giannis level but... well, isn't he one of the top 5 in the league?

top-50?....sure, that's possible

last season, he was 53rd among qualified players (min 60 games) in points/game at 16.9; he was 29th in rebounds/game at 7.3; and 63rd in assists/game (but way too many turnovers and a poor assist/turnover ratio). He had a decent 3ptFG% at .365, a little above league average of .360. He gets to the FT line at a relatively high rate and hits FT's at a decent average. And he's a pretty solid defender with some versatility

that snapshot implies he was just a ways outside top-50 last season, so an ascension is easy to project

I'm not sure Eurobasket is a good NBA gauge. It was dominated by NBA players; the competition level wasn't near NBA; and Deni was clearly the number one option for Israel. He was 4th in PPG but was also 4th in FGA/game

he will probably be the #1 option on Portland...Simons & Ayton are gone and that frees up 28 shots a game. Deni will get some of those. So, at least statistically, he's probably going to have a jump in production. He could top 20 points although there will be a lot of competition for usage from the rest of the roster.

but if Deni is Portland's 'best' player, it's really difficult to see the Blazers anywhere close to contending

[dckingsfan]

I mean Deni was really good. Both against Giannis and against Luka. What I saw (and this could be projection) is a player that is going to break into the top 50 in the league (I think you need to be top 15 in the west to become an all-star?).

Against Giannis 22 on 5/11, 3 rebounds, 1 assist 4 TOS and 2 steals. They lost by 5 points, mostly because Greece took 75 shots to Israel's 59. Greece had 18 offensive rebounds because Israel just didn't have a big that could effectively rebound (part of that is on Deni).

Against Luka, Deni had 34 points on 22 shots, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers and 2 steals. They should have won that game.

So, maybe not on their Giannis level but... well, isn't he one of the top 5 in the league?

top-50?....sure, that's possible

last season, he was 53rd among qualified players (min 60 games) in points/game at 16.9; he was 29th in rebounds/game at 7.3; and 63rd in assists/game (but way too many turnovers and a poor assist/turnover ratio). He had a decent 3ptFG% at .365, a little above league average of .360. He gets to the FT line at a relatively high rate and hits FT's at a decent average. And he's a pretty solid defender with some versatility

that snapshot implies he was just a ways outside top-50 last season, so an ascension is easy to project

I'm not sure Eurobasket is a good NBA gauge. It was dominated by NBA players; the competition level wasn't near NBA; and Deni was clearly the number one option for Israel. He was 4th in PPG but was also 4th in FGA/game

he will probably be the #1 option on Portland...Simons & Ayton are gone and that frees up 28 shots a game. Deni will get some of those. So, at least statistically, he's probably going to have a jump in production. He could top 20 points although there will be a lot of competition for usage from the rest of the roster.

but if Deni is Portland's 'best' player, it's really difficult to see the Blazers anywhere close to contending

Solid. I think those season long statistics make a point. I think his splits toward the end of the season shows the progression.

I am unsure if Deni becomes the #1 option offensively, that is going to be interesting to watch. Where am I looking for Deni to improve? A/TO ratio for sure. He loves to share the ball - he just needs to get incrementally better at doing so sans the TOs. Small increase in his TS%. Consistently shooting the 3 at/over .375. That, IMO moves him squarely in a top 50 player as I don't see his defense getting worse.

By jettisoning Simons and Ayton, it is going to give others a chance to get better. Namely Scoot and Clingan. I don't care if Scoot starts - it matters not. I care that he continues his improvement year over year (like he has) and the split from the beginning of the year to the end of the year (like he did). If I see Clingan being able to stay on the court 28 minutes per game - I will be thrilled as he is the defensive anchor. I feel pretty good about this development.

I am also interested to see if Camara continues to improve in new areas. I personally believe he can be a top 75 player on the league. If Thybulle plays like he did at the end of last season that means we can always have a 3&D on the court and sometimes two of them. Given that Jrue and Deni also play D - I am pretty excited to see that side of the ball. I could see the potential of having Jrue, Deni, Camara, Grant and Thybulle all shooting over .370 from 3.

Are there flaws in this lineup? Sure. Number #1 that I wanted to see addressed is a PF that could play in small ball lineups. I also count missing minutes when I add up the players and minutes against an entire season - so depth is going to be an issue.

I am not that hopeful with regards to Sharpe, my that is probably on me as he is just turning 22.

Do I think they are a top 6 team in the west - smh. Playin - maybe. Still, I am pretty excited to watch them play.

[Blaze the Nugz]

if the discussion is about how to gauge Portland's draft picks since Schmitz arrived:

if it's the case that 7th pick Sharpe in his 4th season, and 3rd pick Scoot in his 3rd season, and neither is starting, that's a pretty strong lean toward mediocre results....or mismatched coaching; adding in the Murray selection doesn't make things better. Also, the Blazers had the chance to draft Camara but instead chose Rupert

Clingan may be the best selection and I'll admit I wasn't keen on drafting him....but I'm not being paid a million dollars a year to make draft picks

For all we know, it was Schmitz that insisted that Camara was a must-have in that trade. What if Schmitz wanted Camara all along but Cronin stuck with his gut and selected Murray? This whole discussion of Schmitz' efficacy is pure speculation given the opacity of his role in the organization. We know he's supposed to be a talent evaluator but we don't know the extent of his influence with respect to draft selections.

[Wizenheimer]

if the discussion is about how to gauge Portland's draft picks since Schmitz arrived:

if it's the case that 7th pick Sharpe in his 4th season, and 3rd pick Scoot in his 3rd season, and neither is starting, that's a pretty strong lean toward mediocre results....or mismatched coaching; adding in the Murray selection doesn't make things better. Also, the Blazers had the chance to draft Camara but instead chose Rupert

Clingan may be the best selection and I'll admit I wasn't keen on drafting him....but I'm not being paid a million dollars a year to make draft picks

For all we know, it was Schmitz that insisted that Camara was a must-have in that trade. What if Schmitz wanted Camara all along but Cronin stuck with his gut and selected Murray? This whole discussion of Schmitz' efficacy is pure speculation given the opacity of his role in the organization. We know he's supposed to be a talent evaluator but we don't know the extent of his influence with respect to draft selections.

sure....we don't know. But I will not believe for a single second, ever, there was any significant disagreement about who to select with a 43rd pick. If Scmitz wasn't front and center on the Rupert selection what is he being paid for?

sorry Blaze, but I have no patience for the 'we don't know exactly what...' argument. It was used for years to excuse the totally stupid things Olshey did. If not knowing for certain is the standard for assumption and discussion, might as well shut down RealGM and all the discussion forums like it.

[BlazersBroncos]

I mean Deni was really good. Both against Giannis and against Luka. What I saw (and this could be projection) is a player that is going to break into the top 50 in the league (I think you need to be top 15 in the west to become an all-star?).

Against Giannis 22 on 5/11, 3 rebounds, 1 assist 4 TOS and 2 steals. They lost by 5 points, mostly because Greece took 75 shots to Israel's 59. Greece had 18 offensive rebounds because Israel just didn't have a big that could effectively rebound (part of that is on Deni).

Against Luka, Deni had 34 points on 22 shots, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers and 2 steals. They should have won that game.

So, maybe not on their Giannis level but... well, isn't he one of the top 5 in the league?

top-50?....sure, that's possible

last season, he was 53rd among qualified players (min 60 games) in points/game at 16.9; he was 29th in rebounds/game at 7.3; and 63rd in assists/game (but way too many turnovers and a poor assist/turnover ratio). He had a decent 3ptFG% at .365, a little above league average of .360. He gets to the FT line at a relatively high rate and hits FT's at a decent average. And he's a pretty solid defender with some versatility

that snapshot implies he was just a ways outside top-50 last season, so an ascension is easy to project

I'm not sure Eurobasket is a good NBA gauge. It was dominated by NBA players; the competition level wasn't near NBA; and Deni was clearly the number one option for Israel. He was 4th in PPG but was also 4th in FGA/game

he will probably be the #1 option on Portland...Simons & Ayton are gone and that frees up 28 shots a game. Deni will get some of those. So, at least statistically, he's probably going to have a jump in production. He could top 20 points although there will be a lot of competition for usage from the rest of the roster.

but if Deni is Portland's 'best' player, it's really difficult to see the Blazers anywhere close to contending

I agree with this for the most part but your selling Deni far short saying he 'gets to the FT line at a relatively high rate'. He was 13th in the NBA in FT per 100 poss -

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 14.9
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 12.4
3. James Harden • LAC 10.2
4. Jalen Brunson • NYK 9.7
5. Trae Young • ATL 9.6
6. Damian Lillard • MIL 9.1
7. Alperen Şengün • HOU 8.7
8. Devin Booker • PHO 8.5
9. Anthony Edwards • MIN 8.5
10. Nikola Jokić • DEN 8.4
11. Jayson Tatum • BOS 8.4
12. Jaren Jackson Jr. • MEM 8.4
13. Deni Avdija • POR 8.4

Taking out true bigs (Sengun, Jokic, JJJ) and Deni is 10th of guards / wings in FR per 100 poss - I think thats pretty clearly elite. Even more impressive when you see his usage at 23% whereas many guys above him are 30+.

But ya, Deni isnt taking you to the promise land as a #1. But really there are what, 5-8 true #1 guys in this league right now?

The fact he can be argued as a potential #2 is wild considering what we gave up for him.

The hope for me is that MIL stinks and we make a godfather offer for Giannis (Sharpe, Scoot, Yang or DC, salary filler, all the FRP). If Dame comes back at even 50% a core of Giannis, Deni, Camara, Dame, Holiday, fillers has a punchers chance at a ring. Pipe dream tho.

[Wizenheimer]

Spoiler:

I mean Deni was really good. Both against Giannis and against Luka. What I saw (and this could be projection) is a player that is going to break into the top 50 in the league (I think you need to be top 15 in the west to become an all-star?).

Against Giannis 22 on 5/11, 3 rebounds, 1 assist 4 TOS and 2 steals. They lost by 5 points, mostly because Greece took 75 shots to Israel's 59. Greece had 18 offensive rebounds because Israel just didn't have a big that could effectively rebound (part of that is on Deni).

Against Luka, Deni had 34 points on 22 shots, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 turnovers and 2 steals. They should have won that game.

So, maybe not on their Giannis level but... well, isn't he one of the top 5 in the league?

top-50?....sure, that's possible

last season, he was 53rd among qualified players (min 60 games) in points/game at 16.9; he was 29th in rebounds/game at 7.3; and 63rd in assists/game (but way too many turnovers and a poor assist/turnover ratio). He had a decent 3ptFG% at .365, a little above league average of .360. He gets to the FT line at a relatively high rate and hits FT's at a decent average. And he's a pretty solid defender with some versatility

that snapshot implies he was just a ways outside top-50 last season, so an ascension is easy to project

I'm not sure Eurobasket is a good NBA gauge. It was dominated by NBA players; the competition level wasn't near NBA; and Deni was clearly the number one option for Israel. He was 4th in PPG but was also 4th in FGA/game

he will probably be the #1 option on Portland...Simons & Ayton are gone and that frees up 28 shots a game. Deni will get some of those. So, at least statistically, he's probably going to have a jump in production. He could top 20 points although there will be a lot of competition for usage from the rest of the roster.

but if Deni is Portland's 'best' player, it's really difficult to see the Blazers anywhere close to contending

I agree with this for the most part but your selling Deni far short saying he 'gets to the FT line at a relatively high rate'. He was 13th in the NBA in FT per 100 poss -

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo • MIL 14.9
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander • OKC 12.4
3. James Harden • LAC 10.2
4. Jalen Brunson • NYK 9.7
5. Trae Young • ATL 9.6
6. Damian Lillard • MIL 9.1
7. Alperen Şengün • HOU 8.7
8. Devin Booker • PHO 8.5
9. Anthony Edwards • MIN 8.5
10. Nikola Jokić • DEN 8.4
11. Jayson Tatum • BOS 8.4
12. Jaren Jackson Jr. • MEM 8.4
13. Deni Avdija • POR 8.4

Taking out true bigs (Sengun, Jokic, JJJ) and Deni is 10th of guards / wings in FR per 100 poss - I think thats pretty clearly elite. Even more impressive when you see his usage at 23% whereas many guys above him are 30+.

But ya, Deni isnt taking you to the promise land as a #1. But really there are what, 5-8 true #1 guys in this league right now?

The fact he can be argued as a potential #2 is wild considering what we gave up for him.

The hope for me is that MIL stinks and we make a godfather offer for Giannis (Sharpe, Scoot, Yang or DC, salary filler, all the FRP). If Dame comes back at even 50% a core of Giannis, Deni, Camara, Dame, Holiday, fillers has a punchers chance at a ring. Pipe dream tho.

sure....I probably should have said elite instead of 'high rate'

he was also 8th in FTRate; and he's not much of a flopper. His turbo mode caught defenders unprepared most of the season. But I'd trade a couple of his FTA's/game for one less turnover/game

[Walton1one]

We're getting pretty far afield from the OT with the Schmitz talk...but it's offseason, so...

I've stood up for Schmitz for a long time, mostly because he actually wrote me back with some pretty crazy and in-depth scouting analysis when I had some questions about a few players, back when he was doing DraftXpress. So I have a bit of personal bias...

That being said, I find it hard to really judge somebody in his position, when maybe 95% of others in his same position get it wrong too. There are so many layers of variables when it comes to scouting and drafting--many of which are completely outside of anybody's control other than the player themselves. It's a mostly miss part of the industry...it's essentially gambling, which is also the part that makes it intoxicating to some.

Yes, this is a fair point, however, as the BE article pointed out and we as fans all know, it is a critical component required for POR to succeed and when they have "hit" on draft picks: Walton, Drexler, Roy, Aldridge, Lillard, it has directly resulted in some of POR best playoff runs, that is not a coincidence.

[Walton1one]

Spoiler:

[spoiler]
I think he's actually been quite a good talent evaluator. Expecting absolute home run bangers out of every draft pick is an unrealistic expectation. Overall, the Blazers haven't been terrible at drafting when you look big picture and set expectations properly, they've gotten clear NBA caliber players in nearly every draft - only ones I would argue weren't are who you mentioned, Murray and Rupert. I would argue those guys are also picked in a range where the NBA generally always gets a bit crapshooty, so having a few bust picks in the 20's or lower is actually quite common.

As for the broader question of if he deserves the job... who the hell knows? We're not privy to all the innerworkings day to day of things that GM's also have to do that could make them worth the job or not.

Being a good GM seems to be about 40% talent evaluation, 10% luck and 50% relationships.

This is seeing his picks through Rose colored glasses IMO...

2022 - Shaedon Sharpe. I like Sharpe, still think he has some promise, maybe puts it all together, but saying he was a better pick that Daniels (#8) or Jalen Williams (#12) is a non starter, and yes OKC whiffs on Dieng @ #11, but hitting on Williams big time negates that and then some. Even players like Eason @ #17, Braun @ #21 and Kessler @ #22 are considered around Sharpe. So no, I don't think Schmitz drafted well here. Sharpe is not a bust, but also not considered a key player, heck he will be going into Y4 likely coming off the bench, not a good look for a #7 pick with 4 years of experience.

2023 - Scoot Henderson - Whiffing on Murray (#23) & Rupert (#43) aside, and your point stands that picks in those ranges are iffy at best, but he did say they had a lottery grade on both of them, Schmitz put that out there, so that is on him and if true, a bad miscalculation of their NBA talent as likely both will be out of the league in 1-2 years.

Scoot was a consensus Top 3 pick, but the fact is Amen Thompson (#4) had a lot of hype as well & they brought him in for a workout and passed on him anyway and Amen is a far better player than Scoot, now and likely long term, so that is a miss. We are in Y3 of the Scoot experience and I would find it hard to support (as a Scoot believer BTW) saying he was clearly a better pick than Coulibaly (#7), Wallace (#10) or Lively (#12) & again, here we are in Y3 and he is still coming off the bench, that is a clear miss, and the excuse that other GM's would have taken him at #3 is not a valid one, it is his job to find those players and he did not, he took the easy choice and so far that has been a miss. Now hopefully he has a breakout year, albeit coming off the bench probably makes that a little more challenging, but even best case scenario that he does, Amen Thompson is still better.

2024 - Donavan Clingan, now here I DO think he got a Top 3/4 talent @ #7, at least that is the way it looks after Y1. Salaun (#6) looks like a long term project, Holland (#5) has shown some glimpses but is not there yet, Sheppard (#3) will be given a chance this year so jury is out and Sarr (#2) looks like a (promising) project as well, so Schmitz deserves praise for this one, 1 out of 4 drafts, where he picked a player more valuable than where they were picked

2025 - Yang Hansen, and then he does this head scratcher. Ignoring why you would double down on a drop big and drafting the same style of player that you were universally praised for picking LY, the history of players from China is problematic to put it kindly. we won't know for a few years if this was a genius pick or just another in a line of poor picks, but given his 4 year history, and the rest of the league raising an eyebrow at this selection, I am not optimistic, nor do I believe that he saw something that every other scout did not. We will see how it plays out...

So yeah IMO Schmitz prowess\draft record is a myth, the REALITY begs to differ and yet he is still universally praised as this "draft savant" which his ACTUAL record clearly shows that he is not.

Now Sam Presti? He looks like a draft savant: Holmgren #2, Williams #12, Wallace #10, Topic #11 (Ajay Mitchell @ #38 was quite a snag as well) & Sorber @ #15? (TBD). You could make a compelling argument for Kevin Pritchard\IND and Rafael Stone\HOU as well.

Are you really including Topic and Sorber in your evidence that Presti is a draft savant? They haven't played a single NBA game yet. I mean, Presti is certainly a good drafter, but idk how you can say those two draft picks demonstrate his genius when they have yet to produce even a single data point. Williams and Wallace were great picks. As for Chet, it looks like he could be the optimal pick, but also he's played only 46% of possible regular season games since entering the league. Jury is still out on whether his body will tolerate the NBA long term.

Meanwhile, you're pooping on Scoot, who showed progress in year two. He could end up being a more impactful player than Amen -- their career trajectories are not written in stone, and everyone knows Amen's jump shot is bottom decile of the NBA. You're projecting other GM's picks as quality but not giving the same benefit to Scoot or Hansen. Clearly you are wearing glasses of some other tint, perhaps #007AC1.

Btw, why would you include Hansen and Clingan being duplicative in your critique of Schmitz? He's not the one making the pick. He's the talent evaluator. If you have a problem with doubling down on a drop big, your problem is with Cronin, not Schmitz.

Fair point, however Topic at one point was a Top 5 pick and b\c of injury slipped in the draft where OKC took him b\c they could afford to sit on that pick for a year while he recovered. Yes, it is just Summer League and I don't know if you watched any games he played or not, but he was very good, like too good for summer league. Sorber is sort of the same issue. potential lottery pick, but was injured could not work out so he slipped a little. I guess we will just have to compare how he turns out (and several others) vs Yang, whom POR (Schmitz) prioritized and a 28' 1st from ORL that will likely be in the 20's.

I am not "pooping" on Scoot, in fact I am one of the few who actually still believe in his potential, many others want to dump him for peanuts right now. What DOES concern me is that the POR from office has done Scoot a huge disfavor by not putting him a position to succeed. Having your #3 pick come off the bench in Y3 is not a good look no matter how you try and spin it, nor is surrounding him with players who cannot accent his strengths (rim pressure\passing) that is malpractice. I am not the only one observing this, multiple NBA people have stated this as well. Think about this, Cronin\Billups sat Scoot behind Simons, a guy who they literally traded away for a broken down\overpaid Jrue Holiday and THEN they signed Dame, I guess Y4, Scoot will be on the bench as well? Or more likely on another team that actually will try and help him succeed?

Furthermore, I doubt there is even ONE NBA GM who would take Scoot over Amen right now, so, while I hope Scoot evolves to be in the same conversation or regarded as better than Amen, to infer that he is even close to equal value after 3 years to Amenis a not serious statement..

I don't need to give Schmitz\Cronin the "benefit of the doubt" to justify their picks, as I have pointed out, the results have SHOWN them to be underwhelming picks, you have the proof right in front of you, you just refuse to acknowledge it.

I suggest you listen to some interviews from\about Schmitz, this was his call all the way, both him and Sergi Oliva (the other asst GM), so he 100% deserves blame\credit for the Yang pick, and yes, selecting another drop big who is not nearly the defensive playmaker of Clingan (a good pick) was a dumb decision, especially trading out of the lottery to do so.

[Walton1one]

if the discussion is about how to gauge Portland's draft picks since Schmitz arrived:

if it's the case that 7th pick Sharpe in his 4th season, and 3rd pick Scoot in his 3rd season, and neither is starting, that's a pretty strong lean toward mediocre results....or mismatched coaching; adding in the Murray selection doesn't make things better. Also, the Blazers had the chance to draft Camara but instead chose Rupert

Clingan may be the best selection and I'll admit I wasn't keen on drafting him....but I'm not being paid a million dollars a year to make draft picks

How much of this is an indication of their quality and how much is this just a byproduct of the rosters overall construction by Cronin? I've been strong in my opinion that Simons should have been moved the year they drafted Scoot and just throw him to the fire. Cronin didn't force Billups' hand on the matter and coaches will always give preference to the high-priced vets over rookies. Sharpe is getting a similar squeeze from a roster construction standpoint due to another expensive veteran in Jerami Grant.

This isn't meant to be making excuses - which it will certainly come off as - but just to set realistic expectations with how the draft works for all teams not run by Sam Presti.

I just see some people here expecting every pick to be an All Star / All NBA / HOF player. Nearly all of the players they've targeted have at the very least been a rotational NBA player, obviously with some you'd hope for more, but also a better batting average than other franchises who have had full on non-NBA quality players picked in the lottery.

You can say I should expect more, and that's fine, I just don't feel that's a very realistic expectation with the crapshoot that the NBA lottery and draft can be.

They (Cronin\Schmitz) are linked, sub-par picks and horrible roster management

I never stated I expected "All-Stars" with every pick, that is ridiculous, but what we SHOULD expect is for those picks to be at\better than where they were picked and that has clearly not happened and what makes it worse is that 3 of those picks were Top 10 picks, where when you miss it can be much more impactful (in a bad way). Nor has POR "hit" on any of their non-lottery picks, as many other teams have, that is, when they did not sell them away for cash...

I agree with you that Cronin is primarily to blame for this entire mess, he lets Billups run wild with absolutely no proof of concept that he can coach worth a damn, he kept vets who have blocked his own draft picks playing time and he overpaid\held onto players for too long and has gotten little\nothing in return for them, he 100% desevers a swift kick in the a$$ out the door & IMO Schmitz\Oliva (for sure) should not be far behind him, none of them have done enough these past 3-4 years to justify getting MORE chances. I don't think it will take long for the new owner to figure this out...

[zzaj]

We're getting pretty far afield from the OT with the Schmitz talk...but it's offseason, so...

I've stood up for Schmitz for a long time, mostly because he actually wrote me back with some pretty crazy and in-depth scouting analysis when I had some questions about a few players, back when he was doing DraftXpress. So I have a bit of personal bias...

That being said, I find it hard to really judge somebody in his position, when maybe 95% of others in his same position get it wrong too. There are so many layers of variables when it comes to scouting and drafting--many of which are completely outside of anybody's control other than the player themselves. It's a mostly miss part of the industry...it's essentially gambling, which is also the part that makes it intoxicating to some.

Yes, this is a fair point, however, as the BE article pointed out and we as fans all know, it is a critical component required for POR to succeed and when they have "hit" on draft picks: Walton, Drexler, Roy, Aldridge, Lillard, it has directly resulted in some of POR best playoff runs, that is not a coincidence.

Believe me, I know how critical drafting success is to a franchise like Portland...but just because Portland has to rely more on draft picks that become good basketball players, than say the Lakers, doesn't mean that they realistically should be held to a higher standard than any other teams when it comes to draft success.

That's kinda like saying someone who goes into a Casino should be expected to win more because they need the money to pay for groceries, versus someone on vacation who just wants to have fun and throw away some extra cash. Success rate doesn't change based on need...

Now, the teams who need to win the draft odds in order to have success CAN tilt things in their favor a bit--by playing the statistics, doing in depth due diligence, larger, better, and more experienced scouting net, etc...that's like the groceries gambler becoming an expert at whatever game they decide to play versus the vacation gambler who doesn't even know how the games work. But it's still tilted away from favorable outcomes.

I don't think Schmitz has performed that poorly--I would rate him about average.

I do think that with hindsight league-wide, GMs vastly overrated prospects out of the G-League.