Ayton, Grant, and Simons for anything?

[Walton1one]

The only way I could see this working and actually, I have a hard time even then, was if WAS wanted Ayton for some reason, as it could allow Sarr to play PF and their plan (WAS) is to trade Valanciunas for some draft capital

Something like Ayton\Walker for Kuzma\Davis?

but if POR had to include draft capital to make it happen.....UGH

[Norm2953]

The only way I could see this working and actually, I have a hard time even then, was if WAS wanted Ayton for some reason, as it could allow Sarr to play PF and their plan (WAS) is to trade Valanciunas for some draft capital

Something like Ayton\Walker for Kuzma\Davis?

but if POR had to include draft capital to make it happen.....UGH

What if Portland gave them the worst of their 2029 FRP since they already have the middle FRP

I do think it makes more sense to simply let them walk in 2026.

[Tim Lehrbach]

This cannot be true...

POR is showing interest in Kyle Kuzma

https://www.si.com/nba/trailblazers/news/blazers-news-suns-kevin-durant-could-return-at-just-the-wrong-time-for-portland-01jesg3g9y3c

According to NBA insider Brett Siegel of Clutch Points, the Trail Blazers are among a few teams that have shown interest in trading for star forward Kyle Kuzma of the Washington Wizards. Portland has been looking for some extra scoring help and Kuzma could fit the bill.

Please be wrong, Mr. Siegel. Kuzma is a barely-positive player at his best, and he rarely performs even to that level. That's like throwing $20 million of cap space at nothing. He's just minutes and field goal attempts.

[Tim Lehrbach]

The only way I could see this working and actually, I have a hard time even then, was if WAS wanted Ayton for some reason, as it could allow Sarr to play PF and their plan (WAS) is to trade Valanciunas for some draft capital

Something like Ayton\Walker for Kuzma\Davis?

but if POR had to include draft capital to make it happen.....UGH

What if Portland gave them the worst of their 2029 FRP since they already have the middle FRP

I do think it makes more sense to simply let them walk in 2026.

Agree with both of you:
1. Ayton would be a must-go in a Kuzma trade.
2. Don't do it even with Ayton.
3. Just let Simons and Ayton walk if the alternative is trading them for longer-term contracts attached to unwanted players.

[Walton1one]

Curious to see how many trades there will be after 12/15. This has been a weird year, a lot of teams have struggled, many that were predicted to be playoff teams, and I think because of that there could be a lot more trades happening before the February deadline, as some of these teams try to recalibrate to get themselves back on track sooner rather than later

Already rumors of GSW going after Schroeder from BRK, would not be surprised to see a few more come in the next 24 hours

[Walton1one]

Looks like it will be Schroeder + (1) 2nd for Melton & (3) 2nd’s

[dckingsfan]

Looks like it will be Schroeder + (1) 2nd for Melton & (3) 2nd’s

Interesting, no? Wish we could have moved Williams for 3 SRPs?

[Walton1one]

DET it’s up to something, I think? Just waived Paul Reed, now only have 13 roster players. Trade coming? Question is are they trying to get better or get worse? My guess is the former?

They are currently 11th in the EC

[dckingsfan]

The only way I could see this working and actually, I have a hard time even then, was if WAS wanted Ayton for some reason, as it could allow Sarr to play PF and their plan (WAS) is to trade Valanciunas for some draft capital

Something like Ayton\Walker for Kuzma\Davis?

but if POR had to include draft capital to make it happen.....UGH

What if Portland gave them the worst of their 2029 FRP since they already have the middle FRP

I do think it makes more sense to simply let them walk in 2026.

Agree with both of you:
1. Ayton would be a must-go in a Kuzma trade.
2. Don't do it even with Ayton.
3. Just let Simons and Ayton walk if the alternative is trading them for longer-term contracts attached to unwanted players.

I am with #3. You don't need Kuzma in any way, shape or form.

Also, the Wizards are tanking hard. They probably don't want to do that trade.

I wouldn't mind:
- Ayton + SRP(s) for Holmes, Bagley and Davis (all expiring + Holmes has a $250,000 guarantee).
- Simons + SRP for Holmes & Bagley (doubt the Wiz would want this)
- Thybulle + protected SRP for Bagley

[dckingsfan]

DET it’s up to something, I think? Just waived Paul Reed, now only have 13 roster players. Trade coming? Question is are they trying to get better or get worse? My guess is the former?

They are currently 11th in the EC

It doesn't hurt them to waive Reed as 2025-26 is not guaranteed. They would be a great trade partner in this case, no?

But if they are trying to win now, they want a PF? Harris restriction expires on the 14th - could that be it? Would they do a Harris for Grant trade?

Gonna be interesting. Who has an excess of PFs that is out of it. Pelicans?

[dckingsfan]

More on why it is more difficult to make trades at this year's trade deadline.

2nd apron teams:
Those four squads aren’t allowed to execute trades where they take in more money than they give out. They can’t “aggregate” players in deals, pairing more than one player together in the same trade. They can’t use trade exceptions and can’t send out cash. They can’t sign players who previously made more than the midlevel exception on the buyout market.

1st apron teams:
Fifteen more teams are hard-capped at the first apron, a $178.1 million threshold for this season, with fewer but still constricting restrictions. Teams above the first apron cannot take in more money than they send out in trades and cannot use the full midlevel exception ($12.8 million).

On the edge:
On the other side are teams that won’t want to take on money because they are too close to the tax and under no circumstances could justify going into it. The Brooklyn Nets, Atlanta Hawks, Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies are all within $2 million of the tax. That’s less than a veteran’s minimum contract. The Sacramento Kings are $2.1 million short of the tax line. The Portland Trail Blazers are $3.7 million away, and the Chicago Bulls are $4.5 million away. Technically, those teams are allowed to add money. But realistically, it’s not happening, which will affect the rest of the league.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5992089/2024/12/13/nba-trade-season-knicks-lakers-nets/

[Walton1one]

From Evan Sidery on Twitter

The Trail Blazers have lowered their asking price on Jerami Grant.

Portland would be willing to part with Grant for one first-round pick and a promising prospect instead of two future first-round selections.

Grant is under contract through 2027-28 making $30+ million annually

Shocking development

If true, about time Cronin started to embrace reality

[Blazinaway]

From Evan Sidery on Twitter

The Trail Blazers have lowered their asking price on Jerami Grant.

Portland would be willing to part with Grant for one first-round pick and a promising prospect instead of two future first-round selections.

Grant is under contract through 2027-28 making $30+ million annually

Shocking development

If true, about time Cronin started to embrace reality

IDK a FRP "AND" a promising player? - don't think so. FRP and an expiring/s IMO would be a coup given his contract

[Walton1one]

I read promising player as a young player that POR might have an interest in, could be a guy on a 2-way for that matter, but even a 22'/23'/24' guy who is stuck on the bench or shuffling b\t big league club and G-League. Jaylon Tyson was one example

[Blazinaway]

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1868426597205692751%7Ctwgr%5E413cf32bc500b3be767774c09ef3505f84e7fdc7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1868426597205692751

Not sure how good/bad this site is

[zzaj]

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1868426597205692751%7Ctwgr%5E413cf32bc500b3be767774c09ef3505f84e7fdc7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fs9e.github.io%2Fiframe%2Ftwitter.min.html1868426597205692751

Not sure how good/bad this site is

Well, the fact that the Heat are 2nd despite having basically the same player in Herro already, tells us all we probably need to know...

[Pattycakes]

I don’t know who comes up with these “odds” but Miami is a terrible candidate to be interested in Ant

[PDXKnight]

From Evan Sidery on Twitter

The Trail Blazers have lowered their asking price on Jerami Grant.

Portland would be willing to part with Grant for one first-round pick and a promising prospect instead of two future first-round selections.

Grant is under contract through 2027-28 making $30+ million annually

Shocking development

If true, about time Cronin started to embrace reality

IDK a FRP "AND" a promising player? - don't think so. FRP and an expiring/s IMO would be a coup given his contract

Promising player and frp is subjective, what first round pick and what constitutes a promising player? The first could be lotto protected the promising player could be a rotation player or a player on the 4th year of their rookie contract who a team doesn't want to extend.

It does seem as if we could've gotten this asking price of a first and a player of some sort during the summer from the Lakers and it also seems like if that's our asking price now that we are just trying to desperately claw back to what we passed up on and the market has fallen further? I hope not but it does raise concern if there's any truth to this asking price. If there's truth to this we could be heading into the deadline in panic mode and any time a team takes that approach you usually end up with similar or possibly worse players on similarly bad contracts and maybe a crappy first or two to justify it to the fans.

[Walton1one]

Sam Vecenie posted his FA primer on the Athletic today, some excerpts on POR players mentioned

TLDR, expect to be underwhelmed...

RW3 (our best trade asset)

On a per-minute basis, there won't be another big available at the deadline as impactful as Williams. He's averaging 9.4 points and 5.6 rebounds with a steal and 1.6 blocks per game in just 18.5 minutes per contest. He's an utterly terrific defender across the board, having made an All-Defense team back in 2022 for the Celtics before injuries wiped out his next two seasons. He is elite in help defense, versatile in ball-screen coverages and communicates. He's also a perfect low-usage offensive big man. He finishes over 70 percent of his shots at the rim, but he also throws terrific short-roll passes and screens well at the top of actions for guards.
Alas, the injuries are a significant worry. He's played just 41 games in the last two years and has never played more than 61 in a single season. He's already missed 18 of Portland's first 26 games this year, too, as his knees have never consistently held up. Teams will ask whether they can trust him to get to playoff time in a healthy state given his history. However, the price point is right, as when he's on the court, his $12.5 million contract is a steal with only one year remaining at $13.3 million. When I've asked around about what other teams would consider a reasonable price point, I've gotten anything from a late first-rounder to a couple of second-rounders. But with the team having used a draft pick this year on Donovan Clingan and Deandre Ayton seeming like a difficult sell on the trade market, it would make sense for the Blazers to explore Williams' market.

Trade value
Late first-rounder
Best fits
Rockets, Pelicans, Hawks, Bulls, Pacers, Lakers, Suns, Cavaliers

Anfernee Simons

Simons is one of the more difficult evaluations in the league. On one hand, he has shown the ability to be an extremely explosive scorer, averaging 22 points per game on a true shooting percentage hovering around league average. However, this season hasn't been as clean, as he's dealt with several injuries, including an illness and a right-hand sprain. He's down to about 16 points per game, and his true shooting percentage is nearly 10 percent below league average. He also has real defensive deficiencies that cloud his game. On a good team, Simons is probably more of a sixth man as opposed to a definite starter. It's possible he could find the right team and role that allows him to be a starter on a great team. But right now, his game profiles best as a microwave scorer off of the bench.
Simons is still just 25 years old and an interesting player. The problem for Portland, though, is that he only has a year and a half left on his rookie extension that he signed back in 2021. The organization has also made several investments into on-ball backcourt players, including Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe. This might be the time to try to cash in on Simons. But he makes $25.9 million this season, followed by $27.7 million next season. Those are hefty numbers for the production he's providing. Simons' trade value will likely be determined by how he plays here over the two months before the deadline. If he doesn't play well, the team might be better off holding onto him to see his value rebound next year. But if he does play well, the Blazers might be able to parlay him into something interesting.

Best fits
Clippers, Magic, Pistons, Rockets

DeAndre Ayton

This has not been Ayton's best season so far. In his second year in Portland, his scoring numbers have dropped to a career low, as have his rebounding numbers. He's shooting a lower percentage from the field than ever, although that can be tied to him taking a 3-pointer per game. He's also taking several midrange jumpers, and those aren't falling to the same extent they did last year (he's actually posting a career mark around the basket). All told, the Blazers are about four points per 100 possessions worse with Ayton on the court as opposed to when he's off the court. Largely, that has to do with defense. Undeniably, in the games Robert Williams III has played, he's looked better than Ayton. That's a problem for the Blazers, as Ayton makes $34 million this season and $35.6 million next season. Based on what he's done so far this year, he's not worth anything near that kind of deal. I don't see another team particularly prioritizing acquiring Ayton on this deal at the deadline. But is it possible he could be used to salary match another player's contract from a team that is looking to keep that salary spot on their books for next year?

Trade value
Matching salary

Jerami Grant

Grant signed one of the more dumbfounding contracts in recent memory in the summer of 2023, as the Blazers decided to give him a five-year, $160 million deal months before trading Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks and starting a total rebuild. In the second year of the deal, Grant makes $29.7 million this year and still has nearly $103 million remaining for the following three years. The bigger issue for the Blazers, though, is that his production has fallen off in a big way, and he's now over 30. He's averaging just 16.1 points per game on a true shooting percentage that is 9 percent below league average. While the 3-point numbers have been fine, Grant has been an incredibly poor finisher at the rim this season in addition to struggling from the area just beyond it. He's also not quite the defender he used to be either. The good news? He still makes catch-and-shoot 3s.
The Blazers have seemingly set a high price tag for him over the years, but I don't think he's worth a first-rounder right now. If the team wanted to get off the contract and move on, it's possible it could do that with a team desperate for size and shot-making on the wing. But he's more of a fourth or fifth option now and being paid like a top-three option over a longer term that extends pretty far into his 30s. This feels like a tough contract to move.

Trade value
Salary matching and second-rounders
Expiration
2028 (player option)

Bonus - Kyle Kuzma

The Wizards might end up regretting not trading Kuzma at last year's deadline or in the offseason. His numbers are down across the board. Last year, he averaged 22.2 points per game. This year, he's at just 15.8. His rebounding is down, and his assists have been cut in half. Defensively, there hasn't been much worth getting excited about. And he's shooting just 42 percent from the field and 28 percent from 3 on much lower 3-point volume. There may not be a player in the league who has seen such a substantial downgrade in his performance this season.
Could another team potentially sell itself on Kuzma returning to form once he gets out of the Wizards' situation? Maybe. Kuzma's contract was seen as a bargain for his production this time last year. He makes $23.5 million this year on a descending deal that will only see him make $19.4 million in 2026-27 after the salary cap has jumped multiple times. He's dealt with a rib injury throughout the early portion of the season, so the first goal should be to recover from that. I think he'd have to start playing better, though, for him to become a real trade target.

Best player on the market, besides big names like Butler (is he? Is he not?) or Ingram (does anyone want to pay him what he wants?), is by far, Cam Johnson. As a POR fan, the hope here is that BRK decides to keep him

Cam Johnson

Johnson is about as perfect a trade deadline candidate as you can find, because he fits like a glove everywhere and shouldn't be all that difficult to integrate midseason. He's in the middle of a career year, averaging 18.5 points, four rebounds and three assists. One of the league's elite shooters, Johnson is a 6-foot-8 wing who has made 39.6 percent of his 3s on nearly six attempts per game over a six-year career. He's deadly from the corners and can also make shots off all sorts of movement actions because he's one of the rare shooters who can make 3s from nearly any footwork. All you need to do to bring him into the mix midseason is plop him in the corner, allow him to relocate or run him off a few simple actions and he'll provide space for your best scorers and ballhandlers. Defensively, Johnson isn't a difference-maker, but he generally puts himself in the right spots, and he's big enough not to be hunted in mismatches regularly.
The only question here is regarding whether the Nets decide to actually move him. Because he's such a good shooter, he's a perfect developmental player to have around as the team enters a rebuilding era. His contract is also entirely reasonable. Johnson makes $22.5 million this season and has two years remaining for a total of $43 million. Given the way salaries will continue to rise over the next two years, he's probably a bit of a steal for a starting-quality player at that price point. The Nets can keep him and maintain all of their salary flexibility in future years. Because the market for him will be wide with his ability to fit anywhere (and because the team doesn't have to move him), expect the price point to be quite high if the Nets do trade him. Expect at least a first-rounder and a good prospect, if not just two first-rounders outright. Otherwise, they can just keep him.

Trade value
A first-round pick and interesting prospects
Best fits
Thunder, Mavericks, Lakers, Grizzlies, Cavaliers

[BlazersBroncos]

Now there is some realism. I dont disagree with any of his evaluations.