2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[DusterBuster]

I probably like DA's game more than most. It is his contract that bothers me. I would keep him, at the right price.

Before helping the la swampers, I would take a shot at extending DA first. If he would take a reasonable pay cut, keep him. If not, get what you can in a trade.

I doubt any team is going to overpay him. So it comes down to if DA wants to play here or not.

An extend and trade would be interesting with him.

I'm not nearly as down on DA either as most here either. That is why I think he would be worth a first and Kentch to the Lakers even if fans here disagree. That said, I do agree his contract may be concerning for a team like the Lakers who I think would want him locked up for like 2 more years after next season.

[oldfishermen]

I probably like DA's game more than most. It is his contract that bothers me. I would keep him, at the right price.

Before helping the la swampers, I would take a shot at extending DA first. If he would take a reasonable pay cut, keep him. If not, get what you can in a trade.

I doubt any team is going to overpay him. So it comes down to if DA wants to play here or not.

An extend and trade would be interesting with him.

I'm not nearly as down on DA either as most here either. That is why I think he would be worth a first and Kentch to the Lakers even if fans here disagree. That said, I do agree his contract may be concerning for a team like the Lakers who I think would want him locked up for like 2 more years after next season.

If DA signs a reasonable extension, my guess is, it would raise his trade value. And if we do not trade him after he extends, we have a solid C rotation of DC & DA.

What are the conditions for trading an extended player? Not sure how that works? Believe there are restrictions for the first 6 months?

[tester551]

You're not getting any 1st dor Ayton. Expirings & Knecht for Ayton's expiring contract.

I'd take that deal, because Knect would be like getting a lotto pick. He was a projected lotto pick last year and out-performed where he was taken at 17.

I don't get the love for Knecht. He was a mediocre prospect in a bad draft (2024).
He hasn't shown anything in the NBA to think he's going to be more than a career journeyman.

[DusterBuster]

You're not getting any 1st dor Ayton. Expirings & Knecht for Ayton's expiring contract.

I'd take that deal, because Knect would be like getting a lotto pick. He was a projected lotto pick last year and out-performed where he was taken at 17.

I don't get the love for Knecht. He was a mediocre prospect in a bad draft (2024).
He hasn't shown anything in the NBA to think he's going to be more than a career journeyman.

I believe he's got the talent and drive to be better than that. He's shooting touch is legit where if he's somewhere in a consistent role as a 7th man... maybe a starter for a specific use-case, he can be pretty useful. I could see him in Portland actually being a really great fit next to high quality defenders like Tou, Clingan and Deni. He would help spread the floor better than someone like Sharpe does.

[BlazersBroncos]

I'd take that deal, because Knect would be like getting a lotto pick. He was a projected lotto pick last year and out-performed where he was taken at 17.

I don't get the love for Knecht. He was a mediocre prospect in a bad draft (2024).
He hasn't shown anything in the NBA to think he's going to be more than a career journeyman.

I believe he's got the talent and drive to be better than that. He's shooting touch is legit where if he's somewhere in a consistent role as a 7th man... maybe a starter for a specific use-case, he can be pretty useful. I could see him in Portland actually being a really great fit next to high quality defenders like Tou, Clingan and Deni. He would help spread the floor better than someone like Sharpe does.

Ya. I like him as a Cory Kispert level bench player. I dont see a starter but a young 7th man shooter type is a ideal fit here. Bonus that it fills a need and in turn we are allowed to lean further into BPA in the draft.

[Case2012]

I think Knecht has shown through his journey to the NBA he can continue to improve and be a solid 15 ppg guy at least depending on his role and coach. The lakers preferred vets and a first year head coach didn't help. He looked fantastic his first month, his role being diminished had more to do Reddick not knowing what he was doing, which was on full display during the playoffs. He would be a great 6th man on the Blazers for a scoring punch.

[Walton1one]

Tough time seeing him as a Blazer given POR defensive identity. Knecht has been awful on defense, has a Mixed Team Defense in the 15th percentile, rebounding in the 38th percentile. His DEF rating was 117.9

There is a reason LAL sought to offer him up to CHA, JJ was frustrated with him on several occasions. His offense is pretty good (eFG% 75th percentile, TS% 70th percent), just not sure it makes up for his defensive deficiencies

[Dame Lizard]

These teams losing in the first round is a good thing for the Blazers. Perhaps the Blazers can capitalize on their vets. The Lakers gotta win. The Rockets need experience. The Magic need offense. Let's go!!!

Oh, and I think the Clippers should blow it up.

I could see DA to the Lakers. Rui, Finny-Smith, Kencht and a first for DA?

Thats 2 of the Lakers top-5 guys, their only real young prospect and their only available 1st.

I think DA has far, far less value than that. Fillers (Maxi, Vincent, Vandy, Milton, etc) and Dalton for DA is much closer.

Agree. I'd do the trade without a first.

[Walton1one]

So rumblings are that Simons is staying and may get an extension. The thing is, they cannot resign him to $30mil + AND pay everyone else unless they can find a way to offload Grant for salary expiring after next season or 27/28.

They want to make the playoffs, they want Simons' shooting apparently, they think if they trade him they will be taking a step back (team looked pretty good w\o him at end of the year?)

I guess they think they can hide\protect him defensively? They must not be watching the playoffs then. Good luck with that

I would wager if this is the case that they will pivot towards drafting a forward\wing type player in the draft, rather than a 4th\5th guard?

Just to recap: In 26/27

Luxury tax is $206.7
1st Apron is $215.5

POR will have:
JG @ $34.2
25 #10 @ $6
TC @ $2.4
DAv @ $13.1
SH @ $13.6 option
DC @ $7.52 option
KM @ $5.32 option

SS @ $35?
AS @ $35?
DAy?

That is $82.2 tied up in 7 players

Sharpe is a RFA, do they roll the dice and let him hit RFA in a year when SEVERAL teams will have money to potentially burn and then just match (that is how you end up paying more BTW, unless Sharpe totally regresses next year, 20ppg athletic scorers with size who are only 23 tend to draw significant interest) OR do they resign him this offseason to a modest deal? That would seem to be the prudent thing to do given his potential\youth\risks of RFA. Given constraints letting him hit RFA would seem foolish? They need to pay money\secure long term deals to (2) best players Deni\Camara and I seriously doubt they go over Tax\Apron so they will be in a bit of a crunch

So what is Sharpe going to get? $35? He is eligible to make $49/year, he won't get that, but he certainly will get over $30 and if he is worth $35, then what is Simons worth then? $35? $40 No one seriously thinks he is going to take a discount, do they? Making less than Sharpe (he should IMO)?

So let's be optimistic and say Simons $35 as well

So now they are at $152mil on 9 players

However, the most critical issue\s have yet to be resolved.

They will need to use that cap space after next season to sign Camara & Avdija to new long term deals while they have the capability\money to do so and b\c of their contracts relative to their performance (and NBA constraints due to the nature of their contracts) POR will need that cap space to pay both what they are worth.

What is that exactly? Avdija @ $40mil? Camara @ $30mil?

So now we are at $222mil for 9 players.

If they decline the team option on Murray, they would be at $217mil

and to do that they will have to let Ayton walk, Williams\Thybulle walk, no new contracts for Banton\Walker\Reath (unless they are super cheap)

and they still need to sign 4 more players to meet the NBA roster minimum, and they are sitting at $15mil over the tax and $7mil over the 1st apron, which will not happen with Vulcan running the show.

Oh yeah, and they have SH & DC entering into RFA the next year (27/28)

and this is all assuming that this team, with essentially the same players + 25' pick is worth paying luxury tax\1st apron for, given they are rolling with essentially the same roster that was 10 games under .500 LY

Now if they can unload Grant for expiring or expiring in 27/28, they can then clear out $34mil which makes this doable? That would leave them $18mil under Tax and $27 under Apron with 8 players.

Same team, same issues, hoping teams like SA & NO don't pass POR, which is unlikely (SA for sure) and that several other teams like DAL\SAC\MEM decline enough for POR to surpass them, again unlikely, and that PHX remains a crapshow (who knows?), and of course the biggest issue that POR remains relatively injury free, unlike SA, NO, DAL did LY.

How optimistic are you? (Better be a lot)

Personally, I think Vulcan (Bert/Jodi) could give a crap, they just want a playoff also ran so they can print more money, and the treadmill continues....

[PDXKnight]

^What is the source on the ant runblings? If so what is this fo doing? They're keeping players unpopular to the fans who don't make us better. TBH I wouldn't be one bit surprised if we resign ant, would probably be 40 million annually at the rate we are going and likewise we'd be fortunate if we didn't wind up having to use assets to undo our mistakes or allowing someone more valuable walk because we have so much dead weight.

I'm done trying to weigh if any organization is worse around the association, I think we have them all beat as we can't even tank well in the most important tank job of the last 5 years. Ant for 30 million 40 million whatever it's all the same, cj mccollum 2.0 1/4 to 1/3 of our cap space up in marijuana smoke like my time at the university of Oregon 15 years ago

[Butter]

No Capture the Flagg, no Grant trade, and now Ant extension...

All I got for Christmas was a crushed soul

[Norm2953]

Is there any solid word on whether Ant really wants to be here?

[zzaj]

Let’s all hope that any rumor that gets floated about the Blazers wanting to resign Simons are purely to help up his value to other GMs.

I’ll say this…

I thought Simons seemed pretty glib in his exit interview—He wasn’t acting like somebody who expects to be moved over the summer. (See Grant)

It would be a massive, massive mistake to resign Simons. The fallout would be nuclear in a couple of years.

You can’t have 3 starting guards and also have 2 starting forwards. Resigning Simons would be admitting drafting Scoot was a mistake. In no world does an organization purposely draft a backup at #3. Having Scoot enter into his 3rd season coming off the bench would be proof of roster mismanagement.

[tester551]

So rumblings are that Simons is staying and may get an extension.

Where are you hearing / seeing this?

[red_power]

It would be a massive, massive mistake to resign Simons. The fallout would be nuclear in a couple of years..

The level of stupidity for such a move is going to be almost identical to resigning Jerami on a 5-year-deal.

[PDXKnight]

Is there any solid word on whether Ant really wants to be here?

Everything has a price and I wouldn't put it past this group to overpay ant so much so that he'd stay even if he hates it here

[tblazrdude]

If the Blazers can get Sabonis for Ayton, you absolutely pull the trigger.

I still think they need a shooter at PG

Please make the basketball case for Sabonis on this team. I haven't heard a good one yet.

I actually agree with you, I think Sabonis doesn't make much sense for this roster given his age and what he wants to accomplish at this stage of his career. He doesn't want to be around a bunch of early 20yr old kids who haven't sniffed the playoffs and be the #1 guy over that I wouldn't think. I would assume he wants to be somewhere that can win.

That said, I'll make the argument just for **** and giggles. This team does desperately need proven talent at this point. Sabonis and Clingan would be a tremendous frontcourt or you can start Sabas over Clingan at C, cause Clingan and Deni would be great together as well.

Lets go crazy here...

Ayton + Blazers 2025 FRP (assuming 9/10) + Sharp for Sabas

Grant + Scoot + Bucks 2029 FRP + Celtics pick pick for Zion

Simons
Camara
Zion
Deni
Sabonis

Is that a playoff team?

i know portland is desparate for talent, but this is also a fanbase that is clamoring to trade anfernee simons, a talented player who doesn't fit for myriad reasons. the only silver lining to being in a rebuild is that you can be precise with how you want to build. this should be about constructing a winner, block by block, not acquiring talent and then putting yourself into high leverage situations where you have to trade a guy away later and every other gm knows it to get the fit right.

put another way: even if portland could add sabonis, right now, without giving anything up, his role is such that you have to have the perfect array of players around him to make him work, and his contract is large enough where he's immediately the guy. that's your big chip. that's it.

if it were up to me, i'd rather not be in the sabonis business and save my limited assets for a player who doesn't require xyz things to work.

[Norm2953]

I don't buy the rumblings of re-signing Simons for the same reasons why there is a lot of talk of Boston
needing to cut salaries due to a long term operational stay on the second apron as financially unsustainable.

It'll come down to who are the players the team wants to be here for the long term.

Build the roster around the long term guys with Deni already on the top of the list. If the team is stuck with
Grant, he'll be here through the 2027/8 season. DC is signed through the 2028/9 season and Camara 2026/7.

Build a roster that takes in account the extensions that will likely need to be negotiated starting next summer.
One would think the team would have to decide on whether Ant or Scoot need to be here long term which is what
zzaj so well said. If the team decides to pay Scoot, SS, Deni and Camara long term, these other guys like Ayton
and Simons will need to shown the door in the end.

It might be interesting to see if the extension talks with Camara don't go well this summer and the team at the draft
starts listening to trade talks involving Camara if there is a player in this draft outside of Flagg, that they would
really covet. They might not like having to match a big contract he received in RFA, similar to what Batum got in
RFA. Would Camara be enough to trade up into the top 5, if there is a guy they really coveted for the team long term?

[dckingsfan]

I don't buy the rumblings of re-signing Simons for the same reasons why there is a lot of talk of Boston
needing to cut salaries due to a long term operational stay on the second apron as financially unsustainable.

It'll come down to who are the players the team wants to be here for the long term.

Build the roster around the long term guys with Deni already on the top of the list. If the team is stuck with
Grant, he'll be here through the 2027/8 season. DC is signed through the 2028/9 season and Camara 2026/7.

Build a roster that takes in account the extensions that will likely need to be negotiated starting next summer.
One would think the team would have to decide on whether Ant or Scoot need to be here long term which is what
zzaj so well said. If the team decides to pay Scoot, SS, Deni and Camara long term, these other guys like Ayton
and Simons will need to shown the door in the end.

It might be interesting to see if the extension talks with Camara don't go well this summer and the team at the draft
starts listening to trade talks involving Camara if there is a player in this draft outside of Flagg, that they would
really covet. They might not like having to match a big contract he received in RFA, similar to what Batum got in
RFA. Would Camara be enough to trade up into the top 5, if there is a guy they really coveted for the team long term?

Agree with a lot of this. If you start with '26-'27, you have:

Code: Select all

Player              2026-27        2027-28
Jerami Grant      $34,206,898    $36,413,790
Deni Avdija       $13,125,000    $11,875,000
Scoot Henderson   $13,585,523    
Donovan Clingan    $7,519,920     $9,550,298
Toumani Camara     $2,406,205    

And that doesn't look too bad. Then you figure out what identity you want and build from there. IMO, Thybulle fits so you try to extend him on a team friendly contract.

Simons doesn't fit - so you let him walk or make it a priority to move him for a player you want or a contract and draft assets.

Ayton, kind of fits. So, will he go on a team friendly contract? Same with Sharpe?

If you take it that way, it isn't that hard.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

After we played out the season with Simons and Grant not being traded due to a hot stretch against bad/injured teams I've kind of given up expecting this front office to know what the team needs to do to be successful over the next couple years.

It's going to be hard to catch OKC out west for a few years anyways but maybe we'll have a chance in the 2030's.