Portland - 2016 Offseason

[Norm2953]

Unless Gerald signs for a number less than his cap hold, Portland will renounce his rights for
his $9.5 Million cap hold is a non-starter if we wish to be a player in FA. Crabbe has a much
smaller cap hold.

[Wizenheimer]

I like Henderson but the Blazers i think have to decide on either Crabbe OR Henderson and maybe to a degree Hark. If i am the GM it's a tough decision cause each player have there own strengths and weaknesses and most do not overlap each other making it tougher.

The order of importance of re-signing in my opinion is -- Hark , Crabbe and then Henderson but i will admit Hark and crabbe are neck and neck with i believe Hark's D giving him a slight edge.

certainly, if you go by the defense Harkless played on Thompson vs what Crabbe & CJ did, his defense is a significant factor

it may come down to if either gets a big offer sheet this summer. They both showed some good things in the playoffs, and my guess is that GM's and front offices pay attention to players that upgrade their play in the playoffs, especially if it's the first time those players have played significant minutes. And maybe even more-so in Portland's case because CJ showed up in last years playoffs and that carried over. Harkless and Crabbe may draft off of that this summer

the good news is these guys performed well in the playoffs. In terms of free agency, the bad news is that these guys performed well in the playoffs

[Ripcity4life]

Just saw this on B- Edge -- LeBron thinks Stotts should have won Coach of the Year and think Dame is a All Star

If James opts out the Blazers should try for him -- LOL -- then i woke up from that dream but really i do not think getting a legit player is so far fetched just real hard.


My early wishlist for players and this is via FA and/or Trades

Trevor Ariza -- He was so misused with the Rockets and would be a great complement to Aminu. He is a solid shooter and a defender

Al Horford - Obvious reasons why on this one and i do not think so far fetched as long as he wants to leave Atlanta and my guess is he will not but i think if he does leave Portland is a legit option.

Al Jefferson -- Move him to his natural position of PF cause i believe that's where he played in Utah. The problem is he has become a little injury prone so would be a gamble.

[sabi]

I'm glad that we have Ed on the bench and I would love to retain Harkless (who deserves the starting role unless we unless we can get a serious upgrade) and Crabbe as well. I have a feeling Crabbe might take an offer from a worse team to get extra playing time or even a starting role so he might be gone or it might take more to retain him in which case Henderson is a good a option for next season. I'm undecided on Plumlee. While I think he was great for us, I don't know how much he'll command and there are too many centers on good teams that are stronger than him. He would benefit from having a bigger partner in the front court, maybe Vonleh?

[PTPaQ]

Durant/James/Drummond - Not going anywhere

Whiteside - I really am not comfortable with all of the rumblings about character concerns, especially when considering the $ he will demand.

Derozan - Probably not going anywhere, not in love with the fit/salary ratio return.

Horford - ehh, I actually really like Horford and he would change the dynamic of our offense, just not in love with spending so much $ on someone who may give us production closer to his floor than his ceiling, also durability questions.

Howard - NO, please do not fool yourself into talking yourself into him.

Barnes - Not a good investment.

P Gasol - Would love it, doubt he would look our way and doesnt fall into our age-group plans but he is such a good all-around offensive big.

Ezeli - Don't fall for it.

Bazemore - YES, this dude is a baller and a great teamate. Gotta get wings that can fly, shoot and D-up.

Lin - I love Jeremy Lin. He would be an awesome 3rd ball handler to fill in for whoever is sitting at the time between CJ/Damian, he gets to the hoop, creates, and shoots.

Turner - meh, is what he is at this point and don't see it worth getting our hopes up on.

[DusterBuster]

Gonna steal your list PTPaQ:

Durant/James/Drummond - Yeah, they're staying put.

Whiteside - With you on that I don't care for all the stories I hear about his immaturity. He's on a veteran-laden squad and still acting like a tool. Not that I think he'd effect chemistry, he really hasn't much for the Heat, but I'm just skeptical on his ability to play a team game.

Derozan - Hard for me to be overly excited about DD after his showing in the playoffs this year, particularly when CJ had himself a pretty solid playoffs. He's gonna be expensive and the fit is weird with CJ still here. You can't really move CJ to the bench at this point and expect that to go over well in the lockerroom.

Horford - Horford is probably a great fit. Solid defensive and rebounding PF/C who's got a good offensive game and mid-range. Not sure his interest in playing for Portland, but I wouldn't be upset to see him brought in. His injury history worries me though.

Howard - We've all discussed Howard to death at this point. I'm still saying yes to D12. If you can get him, you do it.

Barnes - Big pass. Gonna need a full max deal for the Dubs not to match and I simply don't see him being worth that.

P Gasol - Could be a good plan C if first few big names fall through. Not totally sure how much he has left in the tank, didn't watch many Bulls games.

Ezeli - Yeah, not sure.... Maybe a way way way late plan if a lot of other things fall through.

Bazemore - Can't really get a feel for what Bazemore is. Don't watch hardly any Hawks or even really pay much attention to them to know any of their guys outside of Horford, Milsap and Korver.

Lin - If Portland fans want a new Steve "punching bag" Blake, Lin would be a great signing.

Turner - Yeah, another one of those guys where you just kinda don't know.

[Roy The Natural]

I would assume that Meyers option will not be picked up due to the large cap hold. Money would probably be better spent bringing in Telotovic and a legit center.

I want Harkless and Crabbe back. Harkless will probably command somewhere around his cap hold, and Crabbe somewhere between 10-12 mil. Not sure yet if it's really palatable to do both though.

Some free agents that I think could be interesting are:

Horford - don't want to give him a max though,so probably wouldn't want him.. Don't think we can get him for around 20mil
Teletovic - Pretty much Ryan Anderson, not quite as good offensively, but I think he's a better defender, and could come cheaper
Mahinmi - Solid dirty work big
Marvin Williams - Would be a great fit starting at the 4
Bazemore - If Crabbe leaves, he's a great fit
Evan Turner - Not a great shooter, but he can handle the ball really well, and could play point when CJ and Lillard are staggered
Joakim Noah - not sure on this one, but if he can be 90% of what he once was for 22mpg or so, you do it.
Biyombo - could come pretty cheap, he's not great on his own, but in conjunction with someone like Horford, I think he could have a really solid and well defined role.


Not quite sure what the Blazers will do.. But I think that they either go to the bargain bin again or land a marquee FA. I don't think they're going to hand out big money for tier 2/3 FA's.

One thing is clear to me though, if Blazers plan on bringing Harkless and Crabbe back, they're going to need to add probably two playable bigs to the mix, one who can stretch the floor, and one who can protect the rim.

[Village Idiot]

he's certainly not a good shooter. That's proven. Of course, coming into this season, Al-Farouq Aminu was about at the same level of not-good shooting, career-wise, as Turner. Maybe Stotts and his offense can improve Turner's shooting enough to make playing him acceptable and then the Blazers would have his play-making

I don't know that he's not a good defender. He very well might be. He ranks well on the Celtics and they are an excellent defensive team. He was 3rd in defensive win shares and 4th in defensive box plus/minus

in any event, there's little doubt he's a much better defender then Lillard, CJ, or Crabbe

thanks for the defensive stats. Shows how much team defense means and/or how the perception often doesn't change even when underlying facts change.

I'm really liking the Aminu/Harkless tandem at forwards. That's not to say that Portland shouldn't change it if a clear upgrade was available. Jones isn't a clear upgrade over Aminu. He does some things better then Aminu, but Aminu does some things better then Jones, including shooting three's, and we know those are available in a Stotts offense

If the Blazers actually do land a big name player, there wouldn't be enough cap-space for the big name, somebody like Turner, and Jones. Besides that, Jones is RFA and it would be real risky to tie up a sizable part of the cap-space for 3 days, and you know Morey will take the full 3 days to match or not match

I see Terrence Jones as a very talented player who got stuck in a horrible situation on a toxic team. In the same way that Olshey identified Aminu and Harkless as talented players in sub-optimal situations I feel that Jones is also a guy who could be a very solid player for us. Whereas Aminu isn't a traditional PF, Jones is.

I might be more inclined to move Plumlee just because his extension will kick in after next season. My guess is it will be cheaper to keep Davis

Plumlee certainly has a much higher trade value. I can see him coexisting better with Howard though. Plumlee is best in the high post where has passing and dribble drive game stand out whereas both Howard and Davis are best in the low-post. Davis is certainly better as a back-up to Howard though in that you can plug them into the same role and plays.

skill-set? He's 7' and he can shoot three's at a decent clip. That really seems to be the extent of his skills. He's a weak rebounder and defender. He's not a rim protector. He doesn't set good screens. He can't guard stretch-4's or mobile PF's and he can't punish them inside on offense. And he's got a bum shoulder. Portland should weight that shoulder issue like they would while considering any player with a significant injury history

Portland has Aminu, Harkless, & Vonleh. If they need somebody like Meyers to stretch the floor, there are stretch-4's available in free agency that wouldn't force the Blazer C's to go out of the perimeter, guard the opposing 4's, and be in poor rebounding position when the opponent shoots. Ryan Anderson, Marvin Williams, Jon Leuer, Mirza Teletovic, Ersan Illyasova...they're all UFA I believe. So are Al Horford, Nene, & David Lee. Because of his defensive limitations, Meyers is more of a stretch-5 then a stretch-4, and then, you might be paying him good money as a backup to Howard, if that happens

I'd really prefer Meyers on another team next season. If Portland re-signs him, I'd hope it was on a short-term, team-friendly contract for 5-6 million a year. And only after all other options for the cap-space his 7.7 million cap-hold are exhausted. If some team is foolish enough to offer Meyers 9-12 million a year, I'd hope Olshey lets him go

The ability for a 7'1 player to hit threes is highly valuable but I share your disdain for the rest of his game though. I do think he's better at setting screens than you give him credit for. Given the league-wide transition towards small-ball, having a pick and pop center like Myers is probably decreasing in value. I would much rather give his playing time to Terrence Jones who is better at pretty much everything else but 3 pt shooting. I too would only want Myers as a cheap 5th or 6th big.

I still like the idea of Marvin Williams, heck I've been advocating for acquiring him for years now, but I'm not wild about Anderson, Leuer, Teletovic or Ilyasova. They also have a lot of limitations. Nene is always injured and is not really good at anything. I like Lee if he's cheap but Carlos Boozer hasn't retired yet if that is the skill-set we're after. Horford would be perfect but I don't see Portland being on his radar.

[Oneluckbox]

So I was a little bit too quick to herald Plumlee as the C the Blazers should go with. His play in the Clips series was great. His play in the GSW? Not so much. I'm still on the Whiteside bandwagon, although his play in these playoffs has been average at best and his general demeanor does seem concerning. Still, hes young and would be a great fit on the team. I think Dame's leadership would help him too. Both young guys with the potential to grow together. However after the LeBrick/Durant/Drummond tandem, Whiteside is probably the most unrealistic FA out there. Oh well, one can dream.

I like Horford (had him on my fantasy team getting me STATS 2 years in a row ) but he's oldish and paying the max for him? Dunno. Blazers get maybe 3 good seasons out of him before he falls off - will they be serious contenders to GSW/OKC/SA in that timeframe with Horford? No to Howard. Don't wanna watch a billion bricked FTs tbh. As for the other C's, Noah intrigues me as does Festus. But they dont truely move the needle and Plumlee may improve a lot over the summer and become a good all around big.

Harkless - Definitely resign. I love this bloke. Plays with heart, good defender, good size/athleticism and hes shown at the end of the season (and in the playoffs) that he can hit the 3 ball at a decent clip. Hes so young too. Lock him up for a few years and see what happens. Maybe he'll develop a bunch and be a really good 3/D guy. Hopefully can get him on a decent contract, around 8-10. Maybe that's a bit too low for him.

Old man/Allen Crabbe - Hmm I like Gerald but he probs wants to start and would take a decent amount to keep him. I like AC, but yeah his D is a bit overrated and he seems to only score but meh. Get him on the cheap then yeah go for it. Though I assume this won't happen given the cap space and other teams needs.

As for FAs to target. I like Evan Turner a lot, even though he cant shoot. Meh, hes a pretty good defender and gives the Blazers that 3rd playmaker. Could see him as a potential 6th man of year if he averages like 13/5/5. I like Kent Bazemore as well, but hes probs getting 12-15+ and would want to start too. Mahinmi is an option and would certainly boost the Blazers interior D so maybe thats who they will go for - not flashy, but a solid pickup nonetheless.

Or just Sign Lebron/KD. That works too

[Malapropism]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NateDuncanNBA/status/731102973451853825[/tweet]

Good podcast discussing Portland's option IN DEPTH.

[Jsun947]

Danny & Nate had a really good point on the pod about how teams will likely match restricted agent offers even if it means the player doesn't fit in their rotation anymore. The only reason is that if the contract is reasonable you have a trade asset.

I think it's really dangerous though to give a young developing player a big contract though and bury him on the bench. Their value can turn negetive quickly and it can really hurt your team image with agents and free agents. We have one of the best cultures in the league as well and it seems to conflict with who we are.

They also estimated Crabbe's contract around 10-12 per, which is the same I've heard from guys like Zach Lowe. They also would feel better with Harkless and Leonard around 8 mil per if they are Portland but expect both to be offered more. I wouldn't be shocked at all if all three get offers in the 10-13 mil per range.

They also felt like we should add another wing but not over pay for a player like Batum that needs the ball in his hands. While there is no chance of Batum coming back I strongly disagree. We all saw how many times Aminu or Harkless received a pass, many of times which the defender was closing out. The proper play would be to pump fake and/or drive to keep the defense rotating then finding the open guy. Aminu and Harkless just aren't competent enough ball handlers or passers to do that. For that to really be effective though the player also needs to be able to shoot the three consistently.

Maybe Aminu and Harkless can develop that part of their game but right now they aren't even close.

We can always find essentially a third string point guard for the vet min. They're all over the place.

[Wizenheimer]

Danny & Nate had a really good point on the pod about how teams will likely match restricted agent offers even if it means the player doesn't fit in their rotation anymore. The only reason is that if the contract is reasonable you have a trade asset.

I think it's really dangerous though to give a young developing player a big contract though and bury him on the bench. Their value can turn negetive quickly and it can really hurt your team image with agents and free agents. We have one of the best cultures in the league as well and it seems to conflict with who we are.

I think that for the most part, rookie extensions end up reaching some level of bloated and overpays. There is still the hope of fulfilling potential there even though a big majority of players don't reach that imagined potential. And, as mentioned, if there is interest in an RFA from another team, then the bidding process can really inject bloat. So, the thought these players should be matched for the purpose of trade assets seems pretty dumb to me.

I really hate the idea of Olshey going after any RFA's this summer. The chance of success is very low and it takes a big chunk of cap-space out of the tool-box for 3 days. Why waste that time? Every player agent can do simple math

They also estimated Crabbe's contract around 10-12 per, which is the same I've heard from guys like Zach Lowe. They also would feel better with Harkless and Leonard around 8 mil per if they are Portland but expect both to be offered more. I wouldn't be shocked at all if all three get offers in the 10-13 mil per range.

there's only one of them that might be worth a 10 million average and that's Harkless. And that has some risk involve. I don't think Meyers is worth half of that, and simply cutting ties jumps Blazer cap-space from 25.5 million to 33 million. Generically, maybe Crabbe will be worth that much but I really question if he's the best 3rd guard available, and if the Blazers are paying him 13 million, he'd be the 3rd guard. Blazers need a much better play-maker and defender backing up Dame/CJ IMO.

They also felt like we should add another wing but not over pay for a player like Batum that needs the ball in his hands. While there is no chance of Batum coming back I strongly disagree. We all saw how many times Aminu or Harkless received a pass, many of times which the defender was closing out. The proper play would be to pump fake and/or drive to keep the defense rotating then finding the open guy. Aminu and Harkless just aren't competent enough ball handlers or passers to do that. For that to really be effective though the player also needs to be able to shoot the three consistently.

I didn't listen to the podcast but saying "Batum needs the ball in his hand's" doesn't match what I consider that phrase to mean. Russel Westbrook needs the ball in his hands; Lebron needs the ball in his hands. Batum is like a shorter, better version of Plumlee. Kind of like the cushion on a pool table in a bank shot. Yeah, the ball touches them but it's quickly relayed to somebody else. Batum has a career usage rate of 17.6% That's not a player who needs the ball in his hands

Portland could certainly use a player like Batum, but he's pretty unique. He's also going to get a big payday

We can always find essentially a third string point guard for the vet min. They're all over the place.

if the Blazers can't find another good play-maker/ball-handler at the 2 or 3, then they might have to consider filling that need with a much better then minimum salary PG. We saw Stotts go to Roberts several times in the playoffs because of that need but Roberts just wasn't good enough to stay on the floor. Maybe Norris Cole or Ramon Sessions or DJ Augustin. Lillard looked exhausted toward the end of the season and in the last 2 or 3 games. I think that's why we saw Roberts, CJ just doesn't get the team into their offense like Lillard does or a real PG would. Olshey needs to get Lillard some help in running the offense. Hey! Steve Blake is UFA!

[Downtown]

Maybe Norris Cole or Ramon Sessions or DJ Augustin.

If Olshey can get any of them for a reasonable price then that would be a fantastic signing. Cole and Augustin especially.

[AllMyNeilOlshey]

Hypothetically we strike out in free agency...would a trade for Carmelo make sense? If he waived his no trade clause for us.

[Brandon-Clyde]

Hypothetically we strike out in free agency...would a trade for Carmelo make sense? If he waived his no trade clause for us.

Hell no

[nickforthreee]

for me :

KEEP: Crabbe and Harkless

GET RID OF : Henderson and Meyers

also re-sign Tim Frazier, he proved on the Pelicans that he can play in the league, and Brian Roberts isn't anything special

[Goldbum]

I know this is going to sound completely insane, but I really liked the way Beasley played this year. His skill set is seems like an incredible fit in the Stotts system. Could be a super cheap quality rotation guy. Also I'm a believer in Connaughton(sp). Feel like he could have a Crabbe type of up tick next year.

[skoharry]

option #1
saying we don't do any trading, i would do this
resign crabbe and harkless
sign j.sullinger[i know his conditioning his questionable, but he does have somewhat of an inside game, can hit jumpers & 3's, and rebounds well. plus i think he could improve his game playing for stotts]
sign d.dedmon[shown himself to be kind of deandre jordon lite in games starting in place of vucevic for ORL. plus he would be reasonably priced]
re-sign t.frazier, or b.roberts [i know cj has the ability to run the offense, but when dame goes to the bench we need cj's offense, not so much his passing]
so our team would look as such
dame/frazer-roberts/montero
cj/crabbe/connaughton
aminu/harkless
sullinger/davis/vonleh/cliff
dedmon/plumlee

[zzaj]

I am liking Norris Cole and Teletovic more and more...

[Jsun947]

Teletovic is lights out when hes hot. He's ice cold when hes not. Very streaky. He also can't rebound and is a horrendous defender.

I don't think hes the type of guy we really need on our team.

I'm very against Sulligner. He really can't shoot (he was terrible this year), hes slow moving around, has had a history of back problems, and doesn't have the size or strength to battle inside. There isn't anything about his game that really stands out and hes not good enough at everything to be a jack of all trades player. Hes very blah...