Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[Blazer50]

I'm a little surprised on Napier. I thought they'd at least try and get a feel for his value on the market. Maybe they're really sold on Baldwin. I know I was definitely impressed by what I saw at the end of the season.

$8M cap hold on Shabazz (vs 1.8 on PCon and Layman) but Blazers looking to lay off as much money as possible -
AND hopefully make a move (other than Michael Beasley!)

[DusterBuster]

Chandler, Lee and Bazemore available. I could definitely see the Blazers having interest in one of those 3. I think both Chandler and Lee fit into Portland's TPE slot if memory serves... Plus Portland and Denver have a weird BFF trade history, so wouldn't be surprised if Portland made a move for Chandler, but i would hope they don't send a 1st out to do it since he's expiring and - imo - on the downside of his career

[DusterBuster]

I wonder if Portland could get Ibaka on the cheap? Word is the Raptors want to move him already, but at his price, they would have to take in equally bad contracts or send out additional pieces. I wonder if Evan Turner and a few second rounds for Ibaka would interest the Raps? Or alternatively something like Leonard and Aminu for Ibaka with no picks involved? Ibaka's owed a couple mil more, but his deal runs the same length as Leonard/Turner.

http://amicohoops.net/raptors-not-sold-on-ibaka-valanciunas-pairing/

Guess it would depend on Portland's threshold for taking on additional salary and their willingness to roll the dice on the last few years of Ibaka's career having just been him in bad situations and not a decline in his talent/athleticism. One could say though, even if it's been situational, going from the Raptors (a system with two ball dominant guards) to the Blazers (a system with two ball dominant guards) isn't really much of a change.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm a little surprised on Napier. I thought they'd at least try and get a feel for his value on the market. Maybe they're really sold on Baldwin. I know I was definitely impressed by what I saw at the end of the season.

$8M cap hold on Shabazz (vs 1.8 on PCon and Layman) but Blazers looking to lay off as much money as possible -
AND hopefully make a move (other than Michael Beasley!)

I don't think the cap-hold on Napier matters to Portland. What would matter to Portland is Napier just accepting and playing for his 3.5M QO, then becoming UFA in July 2019 when the free agent market will likely be a lot better.

the 2M difference between Baldwin's salary and Napier's QO could be heavy if it also came with an extra 5-7M in luxury tax

in Portland's current situation, gambling that Baldwin can provide about as much as Napier at a much cheaper price seems like a pretty good bet to place

[DusterBuster]

Cavs are again saying the have no interest in moving Kevin Love if LeBron leaves. I can only imagine two scenarios here about why this is the case:

1. Love's value is really low, to the point where if they trade him right when Bron leaves, they'll be lucky to get 10 cents on the dollar.
This is their way of trying to save face in a bad situation and see if Love can at least get his value up with some Minny-level play as their go-to player for a few months before trying to deal him at next seasons trade deadline.

2. Dan Gilbert's ego believes that he's the reason for the teams success and not LeBron, so he wants to keep a competitive team together. If LeBron goes West, the East is relatively open (East actually kinda mirrors the West with two teams clearly above the rest of the pack with Boston and Philly). There's been more than a few rumors that he wants to keep fielding a playoff team and try to show that LeBron wasn't the cause of all their success. So he'll stupidly try and keep that roster as is and fight for the 5-8 seed next year.

Regardless of which reason it is, if they do decide to not trade him this summer, I think he's probably gone by the trade deadline (if Love hasn't asked for a trade before then) either way. That team is going to be garbage if Love is their best player. If there's one thing that's certain, Love cannot be a #1 option for a team that wants to make the playoffs.

[Blazinaway]

Per this looks like Layman remains on the team, not sure why

Bobby Marks: A couple of contacts that become guaranteed on Saturday: Isaiah Whitehead ($1.4M), Tyler Ulis ($1.5M), Ivica Zubac ($1.5M), Rodney McGruder ($1.5M), Cole Aldrich ($6.9M) and Jake Layman ($1.5M)

Correction, I just found this:

His salary for 2018/19 is not guaranteed, HoopsHype has learned. Full guarantee if still with the team after June 30, 2018.

[Wizenheimer]

it's no surprise that Napier and Connaughton did not receive QO's. Portland can't really afford more then minimum salaries at those positions and they'll have Baldwin, Simons, and Trent to fill the roles. I suppose it's still possible that either Bazz or Pat could come back if they agree to a vet minimum deal. Pat might be willing because that's likely the best he'd do anywhere else. Maybe not Napier

not picking up Layman's option won't be a surprise either, although as others have mentioned it could be that Portland is negotiating an extension of the guarantee date. I can't imagine why Layman wouldn't agree because that could give him some extra money this year (over 100K a month), and I can't imagine him making any other NBA roster

********************************************

so then, that leaves:

Dame - contract
CJ - contract
Turner - contract
Harkless - contract
Meyers - contract
Aminu - contract
Collins - contract
Swanigan - contract
Simons - rookie scale contract

Trent - 2nd round contract

Nurkic - QO and RFA

Baldwin - non guaranteed till July 19
Papagiannis - non guaranteed till July 19

Layman - ?

Ed Davis - UFA

that's 15 players...full roster. I'd assume the 'bye-bye-and-make-room' order would be 1) Layman - 2) Papagiannis - 3) Baldwin - 4) Trent; and Olshey certainly won't let Trent go. So, space would likely be had at the expense of Layman then Papagiannis

I didn't mention Ed Davis because I don't know what the Blazers will do about him. He could be real expensive with salary and tax, and Portland does have Meyers and Papagiannis.....and Collins & Swanigan. I've been anticipating that Davis would leave because Portland won't pay the tax bill on him, but I've been hoping they find a way to keep him

that leaves the 12.9M Crabbe TPE; the 3.5M Vonleh TPE; the 5.3M tax-MLE; vet minimum deals; and of course player(s) for player(s) trades with picks as incentive, either way

I'm still skeptical they'll use the TPE's because of tax ramifications, but maybe they can be part of a bigger trade that uses the space of the TPE but doesn't saddle Portland with much extra salary. And maybe it wasn't just more deflection when Olshey said they'd be aggressive with those TPE's. Blazers will have 18-19 days to use the Crabbe TPE, then it expires

[Jsun947]

Cap space is going to vanish, and its going to vanish quickly.

There are going to be a lot of veterans taking minimum or near minimum contracts for 1 year to get back on the market next year. I think we'll see a bunch of guys who you might expect to make $6-$8 million a year going for the minimum.

[DusterBuster]

Read on Twitter

An interesting article and something that's generally pretty ignored when people consider the dance GM's have to do with Free Agency.

[HoopsFanAZ]

I agree with those who suggest Shabazz and PatConn aren't about the tax as I expect their play to be surpassed by others [and therefore a "waste" of dollars].

I expect Ed Davis to return for 2-3 years and Nurkic for at least one more year [QO ... or 3 years at about $15 mil per, though accepting less than $5 million means needing to earn at least $20 mil per for the following two years to break even].

Further, I expect Olshey to use the TPE. He needs veteran improvement and clearly said so. [His draftees are, reasonably, about BPA and upside. Fair enough on picks that low. I'll accept his statements as reasonable until proven otherwise.]

Teams like Phoenix can compete with some cap room to take in players others have to sacrifice in order to land the big fish. Portland just has to accept paying the tax now and waiting for Leonard, Harkless, Turner, and their $41 million to come off team salary in two years. BUT the TPE is the one vehicle for the easiest improvement of the team. Failure to use it efficiently means Collins and the young guys have to significantly exceed expectations for Olshey to keep his job. [That's my prediction.]

[The Sebastian Express]

For the record that tweet was 'become' not 'became' so I believe there's still a specific hour deadline in which the Blazers can decide, if they haven't already.

[kdawg32086]

Chandler, Lee and Bazemore available. I could definitely see the Blazers having interest in one of those 3. I think both Chandler and Lee fit into Portland's TPE slot if memory serves... Plus Portland and Denver have a weird BFF trade history, so wouldn't be surprised if Portland made a move for Chandler, but i would hope they don't send a 1st out to do it since he's expiring and - imo - on the downside of his career

I would love to see these moves happen:
-Turner and Leonard for Bazemore and Plumlee.
-TPE + 2nd round pick for Chandler.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm slightly optimistic that Portland might re-sign Davis on a 1 year deal of 5-6M. They'd still have his bird rights next summer.

I suppose it's possible that some team will offer him a full-MLE (or close), but while possible, that doesn't seem likely

one team he'd be able to help quite a bit is Houston. Maybe he's ring chase

[Wizenheimer]

I would love to see these moves happen:
-Turner and Leonard for Bazemore and Plumlee.

set aside the Leonard/Plumlee part for a minute. Atlanta want's out of the Bazemore contract, and he's a better player then Turner and Turner has a contract just as 'bad'. There's no incentive for Atlanta to do this deal. As for Plumlee/Meyers, they both suck although Plumlee is slightly more expensive

-TPE + 2nd round pick for Chandler.

I'd want Denver being the one to add a pick, not Portland. The Blazers ease Denver's tax pain and increase their own, That's worth some incentive going Portland's way...

....although, if Chandler came in and took Turner's minutes, there's some incentive, at least for the fans that watch the Blazers

[The Sebastian Express]

I know this is super petty but I'd love to see CJ traded for Covington plus Fultz and maybe a pick just to see Philly fans freak out after the last few CJ to Philly threads on the trade board.

[Wizenheimer]

I know this is super petty but I'd love to see CJ traded for Covington plus Fultz and maybe a pick just to see Philly fans freak out after the last few CJ to Philly threads on the trade board.

a desire for rough justice isn't petty....

but if you think the trade board is militant about CJ's value, you haven't read this:

https://www.libertyballers.com/2018/6/29/17517062/players-the-sixers-should-not-acquire-cj-mccollum

now, I agree with some of his base conclusions...he just takes it to extremes

[Blazinaway]

Important new cap info/projections now out for next 2-3 years

Zach Lowe: Very important information buried in the NBA’s salary cap memo sent to teams: projection for 2019-20 cap up to $109 million, and then $116 million for 2020-21. Cap is set at $101.9M for upcoming 2018-19 season. – via Twitter ZachLowe_NBA

[Blaze the Nugz]

The Lakers are apparently interested in pairing Lillard with LeBron... what do y'all think a fair return for Lillard would be?

I'm thinking something along the lines of this in exchange for Lillard: Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, 2019 & 2021 first round picks

Even though CJ doesn't fit the timeline of the rest of Portland's players, I'd keep him and roll with this crew:
Ball / Curry
CJ / Turner
Ingram / Harkless
Collins / Aminu
Nurkic / scrubs

Given the potential of Ball, Ingram, Collins, and even Nurk, this would put the Blazers on a trajectory where at least there is hope that they can contend for a championship in the next few years. That is not currently the case.

If Paul Allen wanted to go even deeper down the rebuild hole, they could then seek to flip CJ for more young players and first round picks.

[PDXKnight]

The Lakers are apparently interested in pairing Lillard with LeBron... what do y'all think a fair return for Lillard would be?

I'm thinking something along the lines of this in exchange for Lillard: Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, 2019 & 2021 first round picks

Even though CJ doesn't fit the timeline of the rest of Portland's players, I'd keep him and roll with this crew:
Ball / Curry
CJ / Turner
Ingram / Harkless
Collins / Aminu
Nurkic / scrubs

Given the potential of Ball, Ingram, Collins, and even Nurk, this would put the Blazers on a trajectory where at least there is hope that they can contend for a championship in the next few years. That is not currently the case.

If Paul Allen wanted to go even deeper down the rebuild hole, they could then seek to flip CJ for more young players and first round picks.

I refuse to bring lonzo to this city

[DusterBuster]

The Lakers are apparently interested in pairing Lillard with LeBron... what do y'all think a fair return for Lillard would be?

I'm thinking something along the lines of this in exchange for Lillard: Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, 2019 & 2021 first round picks

Even though CJ doesn't fit the timeline of the rest of Portland's players, I'd keep him and roll with this crew:
Ball / Curry
CJ / Turner
Ingram / Harkless
Collins / Aminu
Nurkic / scrubs

Given the potential of Ball, Ingram, Collins, and even Nurk, this would put the Blazers on a trajectory where at least there is hope that they can contend for a championship in the next few years. That is not currently the case.

If Paul Allen wanted to go even deeper down the rebuild hole, they could then seek to flip CJ for more young players and first round picks.

I want nothing to do with Lonzo and the whole Ball family. Lavar will do nothing but complain to the media daily about how much he and his son want out of Portland and they'll probably stonewall any contract talks until he's a FA.