The 2012 NBA Draft: 6th & 11th picks, and some random 2nds.

[fishnc]

uh wrong....There is a reason why draft picks in this draft are hard to get from teams...a reason why teams\scouts have been pinpointing this draft for awhile now....because there is a lot of talent...

There may not be a Derrick Rose or Lebron James....but there are a lot of James Harden\Chris Bosh types of talent....

Rose and Lebron are generational type players...some scouts speculate that Anthony Davis could be that type of player, I do not think that is the case....but guys like MKG, Barnes, Beal, Rivers, Lamb, Sullinger, P.Jones and a few other players could easily develop into multiple all star caliber players during thier careers....THOSE are the types of players POR needs to be chasing in this draft....

So no, not detached, far from it....

Watched plenty of college basketball and it was not hard to see that....

AKA, not number one options. If history has shown us anything, you need "generational type players" to win championships.

And I've never said I wouldn't take guys like MKG, Beal, or Lamb at 6, nor have I advocated using the 6th pick on Marshall. I personally would like to come away from this draft with Beal/Drummond at 6 and Marshall at 11 (or 10, if we have to move up one to take him).

[Blaze01]

Look, historically the correlation b\t top high school prospects and elite NBA level talent is pretty strong...

This is a subjective list (not mine) but out of the top 10 NBA players currently playing

10) C.Anthony
9) R.Westbrook
8) K.Love
7) D.Howard
6) D.Rose
5) K.Bryant
4) C.Paul
3) D.Wade
2) K.Durant
1) L.James

Out of those 10...6 were ranked in the top 5 (Love was #6) by Rivals, Bryant and Wade senior years were before Rivals....Paul was top 15 in his class, Westbrook much lower...The point being that basically 6 out of the top 8 players in the NBA today were top 5 high school recruits coming out of high school...

There are no certainties, definitely players bust that were ranked top 5 in high scool, without a doubt, but generally speaking the correlation b\t top 5 high school talent and top NBA players is very strong...stronger than anything else I can find...

Why do I bring this up? b\c in this years draft you have 9 players who were ranked in the top 5 of thier respective high school class...15 ranked within top 10....more than any other year that I could find, heck most years some players declare early, others stay 2-3-4 years...usually you just have a couple coming out...So the odds look good IMO....

Who are those 9 players? (12' - Andre Drummond #1, 11' - A.Rivers #1, A.Davis #2, MKG #3, B.Beal #4, M.Teague #5, 10' - H.Barnes #2, J.Sullinger #5 09' J.Henson #5

Now is this an exact science? Absolutely not...but the odds are heavily stacked toward top 5 high school recruits transitioning into good and many (great) NBA players...and here you have a draft that is STACKED with those type of players and POR sitting with 2 top 11 picks. Yeah, you have to do your homework, scouts\GM"s actually have to make the right call...Not something Chad Buchanan has shown an ability to do...but the potential talent IS there and I disagree with you and so does history that there is only 1 (Davis) top tier talent available in this draft, I think there will be several, and of course you are totally discounting the fact that a player lower ranked may surprise....

Marshall was a top 40 player coming out of high school in 2010, he may be a decent pro, but If I am an NBA team looking for an elite player to pair next to LA...I am going to take my 2 best swings at a top level talent and hope I hit on one of them. Like I said before, add a PG thru free agency, if you can get D-Will...fantastic, but most likely you won't, but a guy like Dragic, Brooks, maybe George Hill
is more realistic\possible. Go after that elite talent in the draft, heck almost ALL of POR all star players were gathered this way (draft or draft day trade)...THAT is the best wacy\chance for this team to improve..

[fishnc]

I understand what you want from this draft, but I'm arguing it's not there. 6 of those 10 players came from 2 drafts. I think this draft will resemble the 2004 Dwight Howard draft more than it will the 2008 or 2003 drafts.

Of the 9 players you listed that were top 5 of their recruiting classes, 7 will be gone before we pick with our second pick at 11, hopefully one of them having been drafted by us.

So basically the only argument here is that you would rather SWING FOR THE FENCES with Rivers or Teague rather than take Marshall. That's fine, everyone is entitled to their opinion. I don't think it's worth getting so worked up about though.

[DaVoiceMaster]

I understand what you want from this draft, but I'm arguing it's not there. 6 of those 10 players came from 2 drafts. I think this draft will resemble the 2004 Dwight Howard draft than the 2008 or 2003 drafts.

Of the 9 players you listed that were top 5 of their recruiting classes, 7 will be gone before we pick with our second pick at 11, hopefully one of them having been drafted by us.

So basically the only argument here is that you would rather SWING FOR THE FENCES with Rivers or Teague rather than take Marshall. That's fine, everyone is entitled to their opinion. I don't think it's worth getting so worked up about though.

Just so long as it doesn't resemble the 2007 draft!!!

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I am starting to like Teague more and more as a PGOTF.


He has a few years developing, but he has more NBA tools than either Marshall or Lillard, and easily could end up with a better career than either.


Good intangibles. Great speed, great athleticism. Great handles. Decent form on his shot, needs practice, but that should develop. I think he would be a surefire lottery pick if he stayed another year, but his stock suffers because Kentucky was stacked and he isn't an instant star like Irving or Wall were.

If we could get another 1st round pick and nab him, it would be a very good move. I would certainly move Wes for him especially if we can get Beal or Lamb at either of our picks.

[deanwoof]

if we draft beal at 6 somehow, how hard should we consider trading matthews for a big while moving down in the draft with the 11th pick? beal and elliot williams at sg, though i would grab some vet sg in case ewill goes down again.

anderson varejao + 25 pick
marcin gortat + 13 pick (probably not even possible since it's only 2 spots)
darko milicic + 18 pick ...
samuel dalembert + 16 pick...

[fishnc]

Teague...now there's a player with question marks.

[Fitz303]

I don't think Beal is going to be available at the 6th pick at this point. People are starting to talk about him being a 3rd or 4th pick. The only site that I have seen that has him slipping past 5th is nbadraft.net. My guess for the top 10 are

The top 3 will likely be
Davis
MKG
Beal

The next 3 will probably be some combo of
Robinson
Drummond
Barnes

The next 4, to round out the top 10, will probably be some combo of
Marshall
Sullinger
Henson
Lamb

[DusterBuster]

I think it's a little too early to start making projections about any player besides Davis at this point. So much is going to depend on the drafting order post-lottery and the private/public workouts. This draft has so many players who are all on the same level talentwise in the Top 2-10 (potential all stars), that I think team need will end up playing a bigger part in who gets picked where than it has in previous years.

[fishnc]

May 30 is a huge day for us (obviously).

- About a 25.2% of losing the Nets pick completely if they draw into the top 3.

- About a 33.4 % chance that the Nets pick gets bumped out of the top 6.

- About a 6.3% chance that our pick gets bumped back to 12.

- And then of course about a 2.8% chance of our pick moving into the top 3.

[derriko]

oh god damnit. I read the date of the draft lottery wrong. I thought it was today and was wondering why nobody was talking about it haha

[deanwoof]

I don't think Beal is going to be available at the 6th pick at this point. People are starting to talk about him being a 3rd or 4th pick. The only site that I have seen that has him slipping past 5th is nbadraft.net. My guess for the top 10 are

The top 3 will likely be
Davis
MKG
Beal

The next 3 will probably be some combo of
Robinson
Drummond
Barnes

The next 4, to round out the top 10, will probably be some combo of
Marshall
Sullinger
Henson
Lamb

Let's say everything holds right now, and just think only about Beal.
Charlotte is going with Davis.
Washington isn't going to draft Beal with Crawford, unless they think they can find someone to take him. And you don't pick Beal over MKG.
Cleveland could take Beal to pair him with Irving, unless they go with Drummond.
New Orleans isn't going to draft him with Gordon on the roster.
Sacramento isn't either with Thorton, Evans, even Jimmer on the roster.
Then it's Portland. If Cavs decide to roll with Drummond or MKG, then Beal is ours. But then would Portland really draft him with Matthews on the roster? So does he slide even more?
GS has Curry and Thompson as their backcourt and will probably pass.
Toronto has Derozen. Maybe they take a chance on him here and not address PGOTF?
He's not going to fall past Detroit at 9, and then comes New Orleans and Portland again. Now I'm really confused.

[Fitz303]

Either Washington or Cleveland would take him. If you're Washington, you dont pass on Beal because you have a mediocre (at best) chucker in Jordan Crawford. If they get the 2nd pick though, they likely go with MKG.

Cleveland would be the next likely pick, who needs a SG, and a SF more than anything else. Irving, Thompson, and Varejao have the PG, PF, and Center position taken care of. Unless they want to reach for Barnes, you would think Beal is the pick. Unless they like Lamb more than Beal

[cucad8]

Either Washington or Cleveland would take him. If you're Washington, you dont pass on Beal because you have a mediocre (at best) chucker in Jordan Crawford. If they get the 2nd pick though, they likely go with MKG.

Cleveland would be the next likely pick, who needs a SG, and a SF more than anything else. Irving, Thompson, and Varejao have the PG, PF, and Center position taken care of. Unless they want to reach for Barnes, you would think Beal is the pick. Unless they like Lamb more than Beal

Agreed, I think Cleveland or Washington would take him. People rave about his catch and shoot ability. Seems like a good pairing with PGs who can get him the ball after drawing defense away.

[No-Man]

Cleveland are high on Barnes, and they need more of a SF than a SG, I believe that Barnes go 3rd right now.

Charlotte - Davis
Washington - MKG
Cleveland - Barnes
NOLA - Drummond (this is a lock)
Sacramento - Robinson
Portland - Beal
GS - Sullinger
Toronto - JLamb
Detroit - Henson
NOLA - Marshall

I also could see a move by Cleveland, a trade-down to grab local guy Sullinger+DWright+pick30, and Warriors drafting Barnes at 3

[Walton'sBeard!]

I'm not saying New Orleans won't take Drummond, but do you know something I don't know with this "lock" talk? And where are you hearing that Cleveland is high on Barnes?

I see 5 really exciting picks (not that there aren't several other players that I'd like to see in Portland). The 5 for me are Davis, Robinson, MKG, Drummond and Beal. Right now I am hoping somebody above us goes off my list with their pick.

[fishnc]

I need to stop watching highlight tapes of Drummond and Beal. I'm setting myself up for a huge letdown.

[DusterBuster]

Outside of Davis @ 1, I don't see how any player in this draft can be considered a "lock" for any position/team.

With regards to NOLH, the only player I can see them passing on is Beal since he's so similar to Gordon. But even so, Gordon is a RFA with serious injury concerns and as bad as that team is, one could say that they aren't in a position to pass on the BPA.

[JustBlaze52]

Maybe we could package Nolan Smith and a ton of cash to move up a spot if we really needed to to pick up who we wanted. Doubtful, and more likely with the #11 pick would that type of thing work but you never know..

[sabi]

if we draft beal at 6 somehow, how hard should we consider trading matthews for a big while moving down in the draft with the 11th pick? beal and elliot williams at sg, though i would grab some vet sg in case ewill goes down again.

anderson varejao + 25 pick
marcin gortat + 13 pick (probably not even possible since it's only 2 spots)
darko milicic + 18 pick ...
samuel dalembert + 16 pick...

Lol horrible trades except the gortat one which wont happen