Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[JasonStern]

I’m really starting to suspect that we aren’t picking up Baldwin. I’m just basing this on how the 2nd unit is constructed, some of the shifty answers in interviews regarding him, and what it would take to get out of the tax at the deadline as a contingency plan. I hope I’m wrong.

the Blazers have two two-way contracts to use. two-way contracts do not count against the cap. I suspect they go to with Baldwin and Papagiannis, but that's just a guess.

[Wizenheimer]

I’m really starting to suspect that we aren’t picking up Baldwin. I’m just basing this on how the 2nd unit is constructed, some of the shifty answers in interviews regarding him, and what it would take to get out of the tax at the deadline as a contingency plan. I hope I’m wrong.

the Blazers have two two-way contracts to use. two-way contracts do not count against the cap. I suspect they go to with Baldwin and Papagiannis, but that's just a guess.

I think Baldwin might get a regular season contract from another team, probably fully guaranteed, if he continues his play in SL....he may not have to settle for a 2-way deal. The difference between 75K and 1.51M is pretty significant

The competition for backup guard minutes should be pretty fun -- Stauskas, Curry, Trent, Simons, Baldwin.

that may be the issue though....you just named 5 backup guards. That would be 7 total guards and none of them really suitable as a SF except in limited situations. That's a pretty excessive imbalance for a roster that had poor balance last season

[JasonStern]

I’m really starting to suspect that we aren’t picking up Baldwin. I’m just basing this on how the 2nd unit is constructed, some of the shifty answers in interviews regarding him, and what it would take to get out of the tax at the deadline as a contingency plan. I hope I’m wrong.

the Blazers have two two-way contracts to use. two-way contracts do not count against the cap. I suspect they go to with Baldwin and Papagiannis, but that's just a guess.

I think Baldwin might get a regular season contract from another team, probably fully guaranteed, if he continues his play in SL....he may not have to settle for a 2-way deal. The difference between 75K and 1.51M is pretty significant

then it is a good thing that the Blazers are deep enough to have such a versatile and unselfish ball handler as Evan Turner in their second unit.

[Wizenheimer]

the Blazers have two two-way contracts to use. two-way contracts do not count against the cap. I suspect they go to with Baldwin and Papagiannis, but that's just a guess.

I think Baldwin might get a regular season contract from another team, probably fully guaranteed, if he continues his play in SL....he may not have to settle for a 2-way deal. The difference between 75K and 1.51M is pretty significant

then it is a good thing that the Blazers are deep enough to have such a versatile and unselfish ball handler as Evan Turner in their second unit.

yep...he'll finally have an opportunity to earn his salary. And without Davis, Meyers will have the same opportunity. Olshey's plan is rolling along well

[zzaj]

I’m really starting to suspect that we aren’t picking up Baldwin. I’m just basing this on how the 2nd unit is constructed, some of the shifty answers in interviews regarding him, and what it would take to get out of the tax at the deadline as a contingency plan. I hope I’m wrong.

the Blazers have two two-way contracts to use. two-way contracts do not count against the cap. I suspect they go to with Baldwin and Papagiannis, but that's just a guess.

I think Baldwin might get a regular season contract from another team, probably fully guaranteed, if he continues his play in SL....he may not have to settle for a 2-way deal. The difference between 75K and 1.51M is pretty significant

The competition for backup guard minutes should be pretty fun -- Stauskas, Curry, Trent, Simons, Baldwin.

that may be the issue though....you just named 5 backup guards. That would be 7 total guards and none of them really suitable as a SF except in limited situations. That's a pretty excessive imbalance for a roster that had poor balance last season

And not only that, only 1 of them is suitable as a PG for any length of time...and that 1 should certainly take the guaranteed money on another team if it's not offered by the Blazers (I know I would).

Right now the Blazers have two players capable of not being a liability at PG on the roster--Lillard and Baldwin. To go into next season expecting Turner and CJ to handle backup PG duties would be a serious blunder by Olshey.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Being light functionally at PG is one of a few issues. Center isn’t deep and SF isn’t good enough.
Is it 12-14 minutes of backup PG by committee and combo guard? Maybe. Probably. Baldwin, at least, brings size, length, D and aggression.

For me, it’s Stauskas vs. Curry vs. Trent just at 2 unless Curry surprises. Simons is development for a bit [with big upside]. 3 pt shooting will likely be better at 2 than 3, so Turner fits better at 3 and Aminu is needed at 4. My wildcard, x-factor is Mo Harkless.

[jeffhardyfan52]

Think dame can talk IT in to a bet Minumum contract to be his back up?

[plyrically]

Think dame can talk IT in to a bet Minumum contract to be his back up?

Super undersized PG. Wow. what a refreshment

[Wizenheimer]

Being light functionally at PG is one of a few issues. Is it 12-14 minutes of backup PG by committee and combo guard? Maybe. Probably. Baldwin, at least, brings size, length, D and aggression.

here's the thing: Napier averaged nearly 21 minutes last season. Stotts used him at PG instead of CL because of CJ's issues. And when Dame and Napier were on the floor, Dame kind of played SG. But truthfully, Napier wasn't much of a PG. He could run the offense better then CJ or Turner, but he really wasn't that good at it

My guess would be that Olshey is expecting Curry, next season, to plug into the role that Napier had...that of backup PG holding down that fort when Dame rests. So, it may be that Olshey considers Baldwin dispensible; and one thing Olshey has done over the last 3 seasons, is give Stotts weak options over CJ for the backup PG minutes. Between Curry and Baldwin, Stotts might not use CJ as a PG at all next season. I'm not sure Olshey will view that as a good thing

[Blazers98]

Being light functionally at PG is one of a few issues. Is it 12-14 minutes of backup PG by committee and combo guard? Maybe. Probably. Baldwin, at least, brings size, length, D and aggression.

here's the thing: Napier averaged nearly 21 minutes last season. Stotts used him at PG instead of CL because of CJ's issues. And when Dame and Napier were on the floor, Dame kind of played SG. But truthfully, Napier wasn't much of a PG. He could run the offense better then CJ or Turner, but he really wasn't that good at it

My guess would be that Olshey is expecting Curry, next season, to plug into the role that Napier had...that of backup PG holding down that fort when Dame rests. So, it may be that Olshey considers Baldwin dispensible; and one thing Olshey has done over the last 3 seasons, is give Stotts weak options over CJ for the backup PG minutes. Between Curry and Baldwin, Stotts might not use CJ as a PG at all next season. I'm not sure Olshey will view that as a good thing

I'd like to see Curry get as much backup PT as possible. Curry has a great stroke and is a decent defender who makes good decisions. That said he is short for an SG and he doesn't quiet have the skills to be a good floor general. Hopefully he can improve in that area if given the time.

[Vega]

yep...he'll finally have an opportunity to earn his salary. And without Davis, Meyers will have the same opportunity. Olshey's plan is rolling along well

I had the same thought, I left it out because I didn’t want to sound like I was wearing a tinfoil hat. Basically, we have a GM with a colossal ego who had the kind of free agency period in ’16 that gets Stepienesque rules named after them. Every move he’s made this off season appears to be designed to shine those turds from ‘16. Davis had to go because he was taking time from Meyers and we needed shooters to build an offense around ET’s one relative strength. Baldwin meanwhile doesn’t compliment ET at all, in fact if he did breakout that would move Turner out of the facilitator role that Neil’s been trying to force onto the 2nd unit.

[DusterBuster]

yep...he'll finally have an opportunity to earn his salary. And without Davis, Meyers will have the same opportunity. Olshey's plan is rolling along well

I had the same thought, I left it out because I didn’t want to sound like I was wearing a tinfoil hat. Basically, we have a GM with a colossal ego who had the kind of free agency period in ’16 that gets Stepienesque rules named after them. Every move he’s made this off season appears to be designed to shine those turds from ‘16. Davis had to go because he was taking time from Meyers and we needed shooters to build an offense around ET’s one relative strength. Baldwin meanwhile doesn’t compliment ET at all, in fact if he did breakout that would move Turner out of the facilitator role that Neil’s been trying to force onto the 2nd unit.

Ignoring all the Alex Jones' chem-trail conspiracies.... I'm still pissed Olshey didn't bring back Davis, I think it was a waste of a perfectly good asset to let him go the way he did. That said, if I step back and try to put myself in Olshey's shoes, my guess at his thinking actually isn't far off from what you're saying... however for different reasons that silly conspiracies about him purposely tanking the team. Granted, I don't think he did it to make more time for Meyers, but I do think he let Davis go to make more time for Swanigan and Collins.

I look at it this way, and I think it's probably pretty close to what Olshey is really thinking... he doesn't just want the young guys on the team to start showing something... he needs it. His job depends on the likes of Collins and Swanigan becoming real players in the league this season. If they do that, they'll be far better trade assets to go along with Meyers and ET's contracts than someone like Ed Davis was going to be on a 1yr/4.4mil deal.

At that low of money, Ed wasn't going to be that valuable of a trade asset. He's not a big enough contract to ease major financial burdens for a franchise and it's easy to make up 4ish mil in a trade with other younger players which most teams would value higher anyway since teams looking for financial relief generally are entering a rebuild. On top of that, Ed is what he is... there's no upside-upsell to other teams in a trade by including Ed. Ed's only trade value on that contract was likely going to be a 2nd round pick from a contender. You can't even really "Vonleh" him since most teams only really do that with unknown potential players to get a look at a young guy in their system for a few months... again, Ed is a known quantity around the league.

If the young guys on this team start to produce, only good things come of it... they improve the team + fill holes for the franchise and they become valuable trade assets to find even better talent to complement the team. The only way those guys get a chance to improve and have a chance to become valuable assets is if they play. In order to play, other guys need to go and Ed in particular was a piece that needed to go to make room for the young bigs on the roster. There's only 2 ways of getting proven NBA talent on a roster, trades or FA. In Portland, there's only 1 since the city isn't a destination, so FA is basically nothing but fools-gold. With trades being the Blazers only real option (and again, it would be that way regardless of their cap situation), they need assets that other teams will value and they need them fast. This is probably the fastest way to turn Collins, Swanigan and any other young guy into an asset... by getting younger and giving them minutes by letting proven but potential-capped players like Ed Davis go.

Still not happy about it for a number of reasons and I'm ready for a different vision/voice in the FO, but if I try and take a measured look at Olshey's thought process - meaning in a way that doesn't involve wearing metal cookware accessories on my head and screaming at the toaster for listening to my conversations - I think this is what his rational thought processes could have been.

[Vega]

Ignoring all the Alex Jones' chem-trail conspiracies.... I'm still pissed Olshey didn't bring back Davis, I think it was a waste of a perfectly good asset to let him go the way he did. That said, if I step back and try to put myself in Olshey's shoes, my guess at his thinking actually isn't far off from what you're saying... however for different reasons that silly conspiracies about him purposely tanking the team. Granted, I don't think he did it to make more time for Meyers, but I do think he let Davis go to make more time for Swanigan and Collins.

I look at it this way, and I think it's probably pretty close to what Olshey is really thinking... he doesn't just want the young guys on the team to start showing something... he needs it. His job depends on the likes of Collins and Swanigan becoming real players in the league this season. If they do that, they'll be far better trade assets to go along with Meyers and ET's contracts than someone like Ed Davis was going to be on a 1yr/4.4mil deal.

At that low of money, Ed wasn't going to be that valuable of a trade asset. He's not a big enough contract to ease major financial burdens for a franchise and it's easy to make up 4ish mil in a trade with other younger players which most teams would value higher anyway since teams looking for financial relief generally are entering a rebuild. On top of that, Ed is what he is... there's no upside-upsell to other teams in a trade by including Ed. Ed's only trade value on that contract was likely going to be a 2nd round pick from a contender. You can't even really "Vonleh" him since most teams only really do that with unknown potential players to get a look at a young guy in their system for a few months... again, Ed is a known quantity around the league.

If the young guys on this team start to produce, only good things come of it... they improve the team + fill holes for the franchise and they become valuable trade assets to find even better talent to complement the team. The only way those guys get a chance to improve and have a chance to become valuable assets is if they play. In order to play, other guys need to go and Ed in particular was a piece that needed to go to make room for the young bigs on the roster. There's only 2 ways of getting proven NBA talent on a roster, trades or FA. In Portland, there's only 1 since the city isn't a destination, so FA is basically nothing but fools-gold. With trades being the Blazers only real option (and again, it would be that way regardless of their cap situation), they need assets that other teams will value and they need them fast. This is probably the fastest way to turn Collins, Swanigan and any other young guy into an asset... by getting younger and giving them minutes by letting proven but potential-capped players like Ed Davis go.

Still not happy about it for a number of reasons and I'm ready for a different vision/voice in the FO, but if I try and take a measured look at Olshey's thought process - meaning in a way that doesn't involve wearing metal cookware accessories on my head and screaming at the toaster for listening to my conversations - I think this is what his rational thought processes could have been.

That’s a very sane and rational perspective. However in this instance I’m not sure the chem-trails are only condensation. Sometimes a GM makes a misstep to the degree that it becomes career defining, an example would be Billy King’s Boston trade. Olshey may view the Summer of ’16 in that light and be performing damage control. That said, I don’t believe he’s intentionally tanking the team, however the need to redeem himself may be clouding his judgement.

I agree with everything you said about the need for internal development, which is where Baldwin should come in. After Collins and Simons I have him as having the highest upside of the young players. I just don’t see a ton of young untapped talent on this team outside of those three (and possibly GTjr). I seriously doubt Swanigan has a future in the league, he’s preternaturally slow.

Which means the litmus test should be Baldwin. Your rational argument points to us keeping him and I fully agree that we should. My less sane argument that Neil is smoking his own chem-trails suggests that we will not. I guess we’ll know on the 19th.

[DusterBuster]

Side note/rant about the whole conspiracy tin-hat group here: I do find it personally pretty annoying to read. Maybe annoying isn't the right word, I'm not sure what is.... but with "deep state" conspiracies and dog-whistle alarms of "fake news" infesting the country and news cycle on a daily basis, to see even a small bit of that conspiracy theory style nonsense leak into the Blazer board - which for me personally is meant as an escape from the depressing world we find ourselves in - it's just super disappointing.

This isn't meant to be directed at one person here, just my general thoughts on the whole of seeing how wide spread these fringe/extreme theories are becoming instead of just trying to look at the rational theories of why a team does something.

[Vega]

Well you seem to be more informed on the topic than myself(I had to look up who Alex Jones was). Also, it may be a reach to conflate a suggestion that a GM's desire to redeem himself may be affecting his decisions, with deep state conspiracy theories.

[DusterBuster]

That’s a very sane and rational perspective. However in this instance I’m not sure the chem-trails are only condensation. Sometimes a GM makes a misstep to the degree that it becomes career defining, an example would be Billy King’s Boston trade. Olshey may view the Summer of ’16 in that light and be performing damage control. That said, I don’t believe he’s intentionally tanking the team, however the need to redeem himself may be clouding his judgement.

I agree with everything you said about the need for internal development, which is where Baldwin should come in. After Collins and Simons I have him as having the highest upside of the young players. I just don’t see a ton of young untapped talent on this team outside of those three. I seriously doubt Swanigan has a future in the league, he’s preternaturally slow.

Which means the litmus test should be Baldwin. Your rational argument points to us keeping him and I fully agree that we should. My less sane argument that Neil is smoking his own chem-trails suggests that we will not. I guess we’ll know on the 19th.

There's a lot of teams still performing damage control over 2016. People seem to forget that Olshey wasn't the only GM to make monumentally terrible signings that summer. Nearly half the league did. Outside of the Warriors signing Durant and Boston signing Horford, what other signing that summer wasn't anything other than an absolute disaster? That's not meant to absolve Olshey or any of the GM's of making bad decisions, but context matters.

I really dislike the conspiracy theory of Olshey "intentionally tanking the team" and as I mentioned in my previous post, find treading in those level of crackpottery pretty disheartening. I totally agree with you, he does need to redeem himself if he's going to continue as GM of this team as 2016 was monumentally bad and stunted this teams growth. I think, unlike a lot here, that he does have a plan for that and is trying to do it. Whether or not he will be successful at that, who knows. I get 2016 casts a large LARGE shadow for fas here, but Olshey has also had some very good moves that are a counter balance to the bad moves if you're willing to look at it objectively and without the bile and vitriol that some here do. Olshey - even after 2016 - is still highly regarded around the league with his peers and highly sought after by other franchises. That may not mean much to some here, but it does to a point for me.

I'm gonna have to part with you on Baldwin being any sort of linchpin / litmus test. You're correct, the need for internal development and asset improvement would indicate that Baldwin should be kept. However, I also don't know the particularly of his contract nor the minutiae of the reproductions of keeping him are. I also simply don't put as much into SL as others do. It's nice to see a guy have a good SL like Baldwin is having, but internal scouting means a lot more than a week of games in Vegas.

Another reason I'm not making Baldwin a litmus test is even if the team guarantees his deal, he's still going to only have 1 year left (I believe) at a really small number. Even if he has a solid season, his trade value will be minimal considering his contract. Teams want young guys still locked into multiple years on their rookie deal, it's why I think the players that need to start producing asap for Olshey is imo; Collins, Swanigan, Simons and Trent Jr. If they have good years to start out the season, they'll be really valuable trade chips to teams since the teams acquiring them won't have to pay them big money for a few years. Anyone looking to acquire Baldwin mid-season would have to figure out his next contract at the end of the year.

[DusterBuster]

Well you seem to be more informed on the topic than myself(I had to look up who Alex Jones was). Also, it may be a reach to conflate a suggestion that a GM's desire to redeem himself may be affecting his decisions, with deep state conspiracy theories.

To be clear, I wasn't referring to the theory of Olshey trying to redeem himself, that's completely justifiable.

What I'm comparing to a "deep state conspiarcy" is this idea that's getting traction here about Olshey intentionally trying to sabotage the team from within by disenfranchising the teams stars to the point where they'll leave or demand a trade. That's where we start to reach Alex Jones territory imo.

[Blazers98]

Well you seem to be more informed on the topic than myself(I had to look up who Alex Jones was). Also, it may be a reach to conflate a suggestion that a GM's desire to redeem himself may be affecting his decisions, with deep state conspiracy theories.

To be clear, I wasn't referring to the theory of Olshey trying to redeem himself, that's completely justifiable.

What I'm comparing to a "deep state conspiarcy" is this idea that's getting traction here about Olshey intentionally trying to sabotage the team from within by disenfranchising the teams stars to the point where they'll leave or demand a trade. That's where we start to reach Alex Jones territory imo.

I think teams do this from time to time. I don't think that is the case here. IMO this lack of depth at the PF and C position is primarily about more PT for our #10 draft pick. A pick we gave up the number 15 and 20 picks for and was a risk to take. Frankly I like what SAC did with those picks and I wish we would have picked up both those guys instead of Collins- time will tell. But I think he really wants to get his "project" big man the PT he needs to develop. I agree that we need to give Collins as much PT as he can handle to at the very least know what kind of player he is in two years when we are at a real crossroads as a team. he is part of the equation there. Myers is a lost cause but Olshey may be hoping beyond hope that maybe this year is somehow different for Myers and wants some more PT to prove it. Sometimes it is hard to let go of the dream and invite reality into our minds. Hard to believe he was a #11 pick once upon a time.

[Wizenheimer]

Another reason I'm not making Baldwin a litmus test is even if the team guarantees his deal, he's still going to only have 1 year left (I believe) at a really small number. Even if he has a solid season, his trade value will be minimal considering his contract. .

I do believe it would be a contract for only this year

however, the Blazers would have early-Bird rights next July and he'd be RFA, so Portland could match up to the average salary for this season (8.8M)

but those early bird rights wouldn't transfer in a trade this season as far as I know. His new team would only have non-bird rights. But if he did have a good season and then signed for a decent contract next summer, he'd have some good trade value.

[DusterBuster]

Well you seem to be more informed on the topic than myself(I had to look up who Alex Jones was). Also, it may be a reach to conflate a suggestion that a GM's desire to redeem himself may be affecting his decisions, with deep state conspiracy theories.

To be clear, I wasn't referring to the theory of Olshey trying to redeem himself, that's completely justifiable.

What I'm comparing to a "deep state conspiarcy" is this idea that's getting traction here about Olshey intentionally trying to sabotage the team from within by disenfranchising the teams stars to the point where they'll leave or demand a trade. That's where we start to reach Alex Jones territory imo.

I think teams do this from time to time. I don't think that is the case here. IMO this lack of depth at the PF and C position is primarily about more PT for our #10 draft pick. A pick we gave up the number 15 and 20 picks for and was a risk to take. Frankly I like what SAC did with those picks and I wish we would have picked up both those guys instead of Collins- time will tell. But I think he really wants to get his "project" big man the PT he needs to develop. I agree that we need to give Collins as much PT as he can handle to at the very least know what kind of player he is in two years when we are at a real crossroads as a team. he is part of the equation there. Myers is a lost cause but Olshey may be hoping beyond hope that maybe this year is somehow different for Myers and wants some more PT to prove it. Sometimes it is hard to let go of the dream and invite reality into our minds. Hard to believe he was a #11 pick once upon a time.

You and I are saying the same thing. This was my point as well. I think our lines got crossed somewhere in my post.