Oh No - Landslide from Lebron decision

[Wizenheimer]

at first, like most everybody else, I was thinking that Houston would have been a powerhouse if they got Bosh. But after thinking about it for a while, I wonder if their theoretical potential was being exaggerated.

Bosh is good for sure, fairly comparable to Aldridge although I'd say Aldridge is a little better

but remembering that series against the Rockets, Asik and Lin were big parts of what the Rockets were doing. Houston was going to lose Asik, Lin, Garcia, Cassipi, & Daniels and replace that with Bosh. Would they really be that much better?

Not only that, Howard, Bosh, Harden, Parsons, & Beverly were going to make 73 million next season. That's only 3 million below the luxury tax and they'd still have 8 players to sign. And the payroll level would climb a lot faster then the cap/tax-threshold. Houston would only have 3 years to make hay until they were in repeater tax hell

people talk a lot about how close it was to Portland going back to Houston for game 7. Well that's true. But it's also true that Portland was a lot closer to sweeping that series then Houston was to winning it. Maybe the Bosh impact was being overrated?

[Wizenheimer]

and speaking of luck:

in 2003, Cleveland has the #1 when hometown hero, Lebron James is the consensus #1 pick of the decade. Then they have the #1 pick in 3 of the last 4 years. Now James comes home. They have the loyalty, of some form, of the best player in basketball and get four #1 picks in 12 years....

[Downtown]

Clint Capela is going to make everyone forget about the missed Bosh signing.

[PDXKnight]

and speaking of luck:

in 2003, Cleveland has the #1 when hometown hero, Lebron James is the consensus #1 pick of the decade. Then they have the #1 pick in 3 of the last 4 years. Now James comes home. They have the loyalty, of some form, of the best player in basketball and get four #1 picks in 12 years....

I'm not one to cry foul but if the NBA were in fact rigged cleveland would be living proof that it happens.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

and speaking of luck:

in 2003, Cleveland has the #1 when hometown hero, Lebron James is the consensus #1 pick of the decade. Then they have the #1 pick in 3 of the last 4 years. Now James comes home. They have the loyalty, of some form, of the best player in basketball and get four #1 picks in 12 years....

First draft pick in 3 of the last 4 drafts, and sign the undisputed best player in the league... they have zero excuses.

[Norm2953]

at first, like most everybody else, I was thinking that Houston would have been a powerhouse if they got Bosh. But after thinking about it for a while, I wonder if their theoretical potential was being exaggerated.

Bosh is good for sure, fairly comparable to Aldridge although I'd say Aldridge is a little better

but remembering that series against the Rockets, Asik and Lin were big parts of what the Rockets were doing. Houston was going to lose Asik, Lin, Garcia, Cassipi, & Daniels and replace that with Bosh. Would they really be that much better?

Not only that, Howard, Bosh, Harden, Parsons, & Beverly were going to make 73 million next season. That's only 3 million below the luxury tax and they'd still have 8 players to sign. And the payroll level would climb a lot faster then the cap/tax-threshold. Houston would only have 3 years to make hay until they were in repeater tax hell

people talk a lot about how close it was to Portland going back to Houston for game 7. Well that's true. But it's also true that Portland was a lot closer to sweeping that series then Houston was to winning it. Maybe the Bosh impact was being overrated?

Houston though now has a "big" 3 of Howard, Harden and Parsons (if they match) and in a
theoretical matchup with Portland now lacks Asik to matchup with LA for if Howard has to
play LA, they have nobody to protect the basket. Now they are going to be stuck paying
$46 Million for Parsons which is a massive overpay while teams like Dallas and now Miami
can cherry pick the remaining free agents. I agree with the sentiments that its looking good
for Portland that Houston and Dallas seem content to chase free agents leaving them with
less money to chase LA in 2015. Going to be a wild weekend for with Lebron's decision,
everyone else can now get paid.

[Jsun947]

And to think they could have trotted out a core of Irving/Oladipo/Wiggins/Lebron/Thompson/Drummond and still had cap space left over...

It's a shame.

[Billy]

playing with our belly lint is better than playing with the stove, cause you get burned.

MAN! So they trade thier big time defensive center for a pick, use that pick to get Lin off thier hands, only to...overpay Parsons or settle for Ariza.

I can't imagine the number of y'all that would burn NO at the stake if that happened here.

I don't see why doing something means that it would be a failure. I am willing to stick it out to see what the heck this cap space plan is. But after being burned previously by the RLEC/Cap space plan in 09 I am incredibly cautious as to what would actually work.

If we've limped through another season with little bench help in the name of a cap plan, and the ultimate cap plan means we resign everyone for more money and have the same bench--is that better?

[Wizenheimer]

playing with our belly lint is better than playing with the stove, cause you get burned.

MAN! So they trade thier big time defensive center for a pick, use that pick to get Lin off thier hands, only to...overpay Parsons or settle for Ariza.

I can't imagine the number of y'all that would burn NO at the stake if that happened here.

I don't see why doing something means that it would be a failure. I am willing to stick it out to see what the heck this cap space plan is. But after being burned previously by the RLEC/Cap space plan in 09 I am incredibly cautious as to what would actually work.

If we've limped through another season with little bench help in the name of a cap plan, and the ultimate cap plan means we resign everyone for more money and have the same bench--is that better?

that has been my focus ever since I saw just how horrible that 2012-13 bench was. Granted, I'm probably a little over the top about it and should practice a little more patience...

but, it sure seems, whether the GM has been KP or Cho or Buchannen or Olshey, it's always "wait till the next off-season, then you'll see something" or "wait till the trade deadline"

I think Blazer fans are right to wonder about the value of Portland having cap-space....and that includes whether it's cap-space for free agent signings or trades. From 2009-2013, in a 5 year period, Portland had cap-space in 3 of 5 years. Lots of it....around 40 million aggregate dollars in space. And if I recall correctly, who they landed with all that space was:

Andre Miller (at 33 years old)
Joel Freeland
Victor Claver
Eric Maynor
Robin Lopez
Thomas Robinson
Dorrel Wright

is that really a good payoff for 40 million in cap-space leverage? How many NBA teams would have been able to do better? Lopez and Miller were/are good players, but neither were coveted by other teams. And at 33 years old, Miller was the promised icing on KP's self-promoted (incessantly) plan....maybe it's unfair to judge Miller by that, but it sure is fair to judge the "plan"

so anyhow...potential cap-space next summer. And of course, that comes after a season when it seems so many are expecting some of the 'young' players on the roster to step up...take their game to a new level...an infusion of "organic growth" to quote KP. But about those young players:

Freeland - 27 (will turn 28 by all-star break)
Claver - 26
Robinson - 23 (will turn 24 next season)
Barton - 23 (will turn 24 in early Jan)
McCollum - 23
Leonard - 22 (will turn 23 by all-star break)
Crabbe - 22

they are certainly young compared to me, and maybe you. They aren't really a group that could be called that young by NBA standards. Next season, their average age will be close to 24.5. The point being you can't realistically expect much growth, if any, to come from physical maturation, which is the most significant and typical development engine among young NBA players. The growth will mostly have to come from lights going on in the players brains and from experience. But with Stotts in charge, how much experience will they really get?

I think one thing Olshey may be doing is forcing Stotts to use a couple of those players more by not giving him alternatives. Whether that's deliberate or not, I don't know

anyway, that's all a tangent. Getting back to the theme of if Portland is simply going to re-sign all their players and hope for the best by giving the starters weak bench support....if you go by the contracts given out this off-season and project salaries for the starters when they are all on new contracts:

Aldridge 21 million
Lillard 18 million
Batum 14 million
Lopez 12 million
Matthews 8 million

71 million...which would be 5 million below this season's luxury tax (as well as perhaps being optimistic), and maybe 10-12 million below the threshold in 2016

so yeah...that does make it look like the Blazers would have a difficult time maintaining any sort of bench. And with that in mind, even if a couple of the 'young' ones like Barton and Robinson took major steps forward, how could Portland be able to afford them? Add TRob at 7 million a year and you're into the tax. I suppose, replacing Batum at 14 million with Barton at 6 million creates a little bit of a extra margin, but is it nearly enough?...and does that underrate the impact Batum has on the team? And really, even though the Blazer starting unit is one of the better in the league, are they anywhere close to being good enough to win a title on their own?

all things considered, it is pretty easy to become skeptical about what the 2015 plan is and what it means. Maybe it will be brilliant, but going by past Blazer history and watching what other teams achieve, and what others are forced to do...yikes!

[Agenda42]

anyway, that's all a tangent. Getting back to the theme of if Portland is simply going to re-sign all their players and hope for the best by giving the starters weak bench support....if you go by the contracts given out this off-season and project salaries for the starters when they are all on new contracts:

Aldridge 21 million
Lillard 18 million
Batum 14 million
Lopez 12 million
Matthews 8 million

71 million...which would be 5 million below this season's luxury tax (as well as perhaps being optimistic), and maybe 10-12 million below the threshold in 2016

...

all things considered, it is pretty easy to become skeptical about what the 2015 plan is and what it means. Maybe it will be brilliant, but going by past Blazer history and watching what other teams achieve, and what others are forced to do...yikes!

The NBA won't let you win a championship this way anymore. You can't have a core of talented veterans on fair contracts with the way the CBA works now.

If you want rings, you gotta have one of the best max players and you gotta have at least one key piece on a rookie contract. It's just dramatically more efficient to run the numbers that way.

[JasonStern]

regarding Bosh not upgrading Houston, he would have. starters play a majority of the minutes, and being able to have one of Bosh or Howard on the floor at all times is much harder to defend against than having one of Aşık/Howard. where Houston would fall short is due to having Kevin McHale as their head coach.


regarding cap space, yes, the plan is flawed. now would be the time to take on large, but short duration contracts as the amount available to spend on support players will be depleted once everyone's contract extensions come into effect.

The NBA won't let you win a championship this way anymore. You can't have a core of talented veterans on fair contracts with the way the CBA works now.

that's pretty much exactly how the Spurs are built.

(in before someone claims that one non-all star in Leonard somehow negates the rest of their roster.)

but yeah, I don't see Lillard signing for $12 million/season like Parker, Aldridge signing for $10 million/season like Duncan, Batum signing for $7 million/season like Ginobli, etc.

still, ignoring salary, since Batum was drafted, the only draft pick that Portland made that has really panned out for the Blazers has been Lillard. the Blazers have three recent lottery picks in Leonard, McCollum, and Robinson on the roster that, so far, have under performed their draft position. I'd say that level of efficiency from the draft is more damning than the size of Portland's TV market.

[Agenda42]

The NBA won't let you win a championship this way anymore. You can't have a core of talented veterans on fair contracts with the way the CBA works now.

that's pretty much exactly how the Spurs are built.

The Spurs don't have their players on fair contracts. They're paying something like $30M less for their roster than those guys would make on the free market.

Also, under no circumstances should any team try to emulate the Spurs.

still, ignoring salary, since Batum was drafted, the only draft pick that Portland made that has really panned out for the Blazers has been Lillard. the Blazers have three recent lottery picks in Leonard, McCollum, and Robinson on the roster that, so far, have under performed their draft position. I'd say that level of efficiency from the draft is more damning than the size of Portland's TV market.

I think market size advantage just got a lot smaller. The destination value of a city still matters, but both New York franchises just took a huge hit now that they can't be perennially $25M over the tax line.

Certainly the Blazers haven't gotten much from the draft the past few years, but I would say that few teams have. It's been a weak few years of drafts. You have to go back to 2010 to see a class that really produced value.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Going back to Aldridge … who the Bulls drafted but Portland moved up to get him during the draft … that worked so far.
Robinson, though drafted and traded twice (once he wasn't being used and the other was capspace for Houston), and he wasn't with Portland in his 1st year … so tossing him into the conversation should count much less than Aldridge, I'd think.
Leonard is not good, so far, and is headed in the wrong direction … needs new battery?
McCollum is a 2nd year guy coming off an injury at the beginning of his rookie year … I'd say give him some time before too many conclusions are made.
Barton is looking okay for a 2nd rounder. Improvements.
Freeland hadn't played much ball (supermarket paper towel shots don't count), got his Euro time, and in his 2nd NBA season stepped up to actual NBA big man.
Claver, on the other hand, could maybe go to Freeland's old job for some practice. Cold, I know.

There have been bad draft results aplenty for the Blazers and bad injury luck as well … Portland does have 2 all stars and a starting 5 who are in the upper half at their positions.
Just playing devil's advocate.

[GreenRiddler]

playing with our belly lint is better than playing with the stove, cause you get burned.

MAN! So they trade thier big time defensive center for a pick, use that pick to get Lin off thier hands, only to...overpay Parsons or settle for Ariza.

I can't imagine the number of y'all that would burn NO at the stake if that happened here.

I don't see why doing something means that it would be a failure. I am willing to stick it out to see what the heck this cap space plan is. But after being burned previously by the RLEC/Cap space plan in 09 I am incredibly cautious as to what would actually work.

If we've limped through another season with little bench help in the name of a cap plan, and the ultimate cap plan means we resign everyone for more money and have the same bench--is that better?

No that was just a response to someone saying we are playing with our belly lint while Hou gets better, before bosh went back to Mia.

My point was yeah given how good our starting 5 is and that we only had the MLE and BAE, it would be stupid to play with fire like trading our bench players/starter for something that might blow up in our face.

Like doing the trade and missing out on signing the guy we wanted...like Houston.

[PDXKnight]

There is one thing about LA that hasn't been mentioned yet: Teams are gonna be thinking about the 2016 (durant) class when the 2015 free agency comes around so that probably cuts LA suitors down even more.

[Wizenheimer]

There is one thing about LA that hasn't been mentioned yet: Teams are gonna be thinking about the 2016 (durant) class when the 2015 free agency comes around so that probably cuts LA suitors down even more.

Durant was a doofus not to have a player option after year 3 or 4 of his current deal

[Norm2953]

Look for the Lakers everything in their power to sign Durant in 2016. Kobe will be
a $24 million expiring contract and they look lottery bound (again).

[PDXKnight]

There is one thing about LA that hasn't been mentioned yet: Teams are gonna be thinking about the 2016 (durant) class when the 2015 free agency comes around so that probably cuts LA suitors down even more.

Durant was a doofus not to have a player option after year 3 or 4 of his current deal

Yup, if I were durant id fire my agent.

[monopoman]

The Lakers might be having the worst off season in their team history. They might be looking
now at 2016 for Kobe and Nash are still around and they could not sign any free agent of
note with their cap space. Pau Gasol is almost certain to be leaving and they are wasting
their cap space to re-sign guys like Jordan Hill after whiffing on Melo.

I wonder what our friend Deep thinks of his teams chances in 2015 even with a healthy Kobe.

To make matters worse if that team has a lot of trouble competing the only thing they do is set up a nice pick for the Phoenix Suns.

I'm pretty sure next years 1st round pick from LA goes to the Suns no matter what.

[Wizenheimer]

The Lakers might be having the worst off season in their team history. They might be looking
now at 2016 for Kobe and Nash are still around and they could not sign any free agent of
note with their cap space. Pau Gasol is almost certain to be leaving and they are wasting
their cap space to re-sign guys like Jordan Hill after whiffing on Melo.

I wonder what our friend Deep thinks of his teams chances in 2015 even with a healthy Kobe.

To make matters worse if that team has a lot of trouble competing the only thing they do is set up a nice pick for the Phoenix Suns.

I'm pretty sure next years 1st round pick from LA goes to the Suns no matter what.

2015 first round draft pick to Phoenix

L.A. Lakers' 1st round pick to Phoenix protected for selections 1-5 in 2015, 1-3 in 2016 or 1-3 in 2017 or unprotected in 2018 [L.A. Lakers-Phoenix, 7/11/2012]

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed