Offseason of talk about LMA potentially leaving the Blazers

[Norm2953]

so what might Portland do if Aldridge abandons ship? Look at what's left first:

guaranteed salaries (for the most part):

Nicolas Batum $12,235,750
Arron Afflalo $7,937,500 (player option)
Chris Kaman $5,000,000 (1 million guaranteed)
Damian Lillard $4,236,287
C.J. McCollum $2,525,160
Meyers Leonard $3,075,880
Steve Blake $2,170,465
Allen Crabbe $947,276
Tim Frazier $845,059 (unguaranteed)
2015 1st rd pick (23rd) $1,112,000

39 million

then come the cap-holds:

LaMarcus Aldridge $19,000,000 (estimate)
Wesley Matthews $10,868,460
Robin Lopez $9,187,092
Dorell Wright $4,095,000
Joel Freeland $5,725,673
Alonzo Gee $1,276,061

so, the projections are that the salary cap will land somewhere north of 67 million. The Blazers start out at 39 million for 10 players, so, with 2 roster charges of 525K they have around 27 million in cap-space. If Aldridge leaves, then that leaves the cap-holds of Matthews, Lopez, Freeland, Wright, and Gee. The last 3 players are irrelevant in my view because the Blazers would have no reluctance to waive bird rights on them if they needed the space

adding back the cap-holds of Matthews and Lopez leaves Portland around 8 million in cap-space (gain 20 million in cap-holds, lose 1 million in roster charges)

* they could gain and additional 3.5 million by waiving Kaman. Two problems with that, he's relatively cheap at 5 million for a utility C and he's one of Portland's only inside threats; and the deadline for waiving him is June 30, which is likely well before the Blazers will know what Aldridge will do.

* obviously, 'losing' Afflalo could gain an additional 7.4 million in space but I don't know that Afflalo will opt-out. It actually makes more sense for him to play for the last year of his deal and become UFA in 2016 when the cap jumps to 90 million. After the season he just had, he's unlikely to get a higher salary next season then the last year of his current deal

* no real advantage to waiving Frazier. With the offset in his salary vs roster charge, Portland would only gain 320K in space; and he's a relatively cheap 3rd PG who showed flashes this season
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so between 8-11.5 million in space (the kaman factor). Maybe Portland could gain a little space by getting Matthews & Lopez signed early, assuming they'd intend to if Aldridge leaves.

AND, Portland could have 17-20 million in space if they let Lopez walk (and Kaman), meaning they could theoretically go after a max free agent. But I think most of us realize that would be a joke. What max free agent will want to sign with a small-market team in a high tax state that just lost their franchise player? Of course, that brings up if Matthews/Lopez will want to re-sign if Aldridge leaves, and that's a real question

anyway that moves the horizon down to lower-tier free agents, and with Aldridge gone, Portland desperately needs a PF....but why bother? OK...I guess it's no fun to give up, and since I started this with cap-space in mind, here's a few free agent ideas (PF's):

* Paul Millsap (almost certainly out of Portland's price range, even if Kaman is released. Probably a long shot but maybe he still feels good about Portland because of their contract offer in 2010. Truthfully, with a different coach and a different offense, the Blazers could be an interesting team with Millsap replacing Aldridge)

* Brandon Bass (might come cheap...with good reason)

* Thadeus Young (decent player...bit of a tweener)

* Greg Monroe (no chance)

* Josh Smith (yuck)

* Ed Davis (don't want him as a starter)

* Brandon Wright ( a better version of Davis)

frankly, afaic, the only player worth the effort would be Millsap, and with only 11.5 million in space, Portland has no chance. Portland could get the space, but essentially trading Aldridge & Lopez for Millsap looks like a real questionable deal...as in why bother?

there are other free agents obviously, but that loops back around Portland being rather rudderless without LMA. Will Paul Allen be willing to have the Blazers take on more long-term contracts, especially with the very real possibility Portland becomes a treadmill team?...trapped in that limbo between 1st round playoff exits or the last pick or so in the lottery

That's a very good summary but it all comes down to what LA does. I'm not totally convinced LA will leave for
virtually no player leaves money on the table, especially at his age. SA is a real threat to sign LA but Tony
Parker is going to be 33 next year and is on the downside of his career.

I do think what bears watching is whether the team would consider moving Batum irregardless of whether
LA stays or not. The team seems to be a real mess but a re-signed LA, Dame and a returning Matthews who
were their best 3 players would be a solid nucleus in a summer where there will be a lot of changes.

[The Sebastian Express]

Honestly if LMA leaves I'd let Wes and RoLo walk, or resign them and try to trade them at the deadline to contending teams. Or throughout the year. I'd move Nic. Try to accumulate as many first rounders and assets as possible. I know Wizenheimer and others are very anti-lottery/tanking/trying to rebuild faster that way but you need at least two stars in today's NBA and none of those three are stars. Love wouldn't come to Portland. He has no overwhelming affection for where he's from, and that's fine. Plus, he's probably better as the third wheel as we see him in Cleveland.

The biggest problem with that plan, of course, is Damian's age.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

If Aldridge leaves, I would explore trading Dame for a high pick or two. Start with a clean slate.

[JasonStern]

I'd like to find a way to get Brooke Lopez. The Blazers need a big down low. That will help the 3 point shooters and even help Aldridge plus it would give the Blazers another scorer on the floor versus whatever Rolo gives you.

I want nothing to do with Brooke Lopez for a simple reason:

in the last 4 seasons, he's missed 144 games due to injury.

even with Portland's pristine track record when it comes to centers staying healthy?

with Aldridge gone, Portland desperately needs a PF....but why bother? OK...I guess it's no fun to give up, and since I started this with cap-space in mind, here's a few free agent ideas (PF's):

* Paul Millsap (almost certainly out of Portland's price range, even if Kaman is released. Probably a long shot but maybe he still feels good about Portland because of their contract offer in 2010. Truthfully, with a different coach and a different offense, the Blazers could be an interesting team with Millsap replacing Aldridge)

if Aldridge wants out, Paul Millsap would be a very realistic target in a sign-and-trade. Aldridge would likely sign off as he would be going to a contender, Atlanta would sign off as Aldridge is a much better player than Millsap, and Portland would likely sign off as a recent all-star power forward is a solid return for a player that they were going to lose in free agency.

personally, I'm not a huge fan of Millsap as he's 30, and he isn't a good enough player where I see Portland making the playoffs with Lillard/post-Achilles Matthews/Batum/Millsap/Lopez. as a result, Portland would have a very expensive roster with limited growth potential.

Monroe would be a great target. he's 24, productive, and relatively healthy for a big. but I believe Detroit lost his bird rights when he accepted the QO, and even if they had them, I cannot see Aldridge agreeing to a sign-and-trade where he ends up in Detroit. maybe it could work with a third team involved... maybe.

presuming the Clippers meltdown against the Spurs, would they consider an Aldridge for Griffin swap if Portland included some win-now role players like Matthews, Lopez, etc.? the Clippers go win-now, while Portland gets a bit younger to build around a Lillard/Griffin duo.

from a talent standpoint, the ultimate sign-and-trade for Aldridge would be for Kevin Love. Aldridge would be going to a championship contender in the Cavs, the Cavs get a much better fit for the third option in their offense, Portland replaces their all-star power forward with a younger all-star power forward, and Love gets to be the #1 option on a team that shoots a lot and doesn't play defense. of course, I don't see Love agreeing to play for Portland, even with family ties to the area.

I'm sure Golden State would consider sign-and-trading Draymond Green for Aldridge, but one - Green is about to get overpaid, and two - Green is a glue guy. adding him to a team potentially full of glue guys like Batum, Matthews, Lopez, Afflalo, etc. is nice, but it'd be an expensive roster with no chance of contending.

but that's presuming that the Blazers go the power forward route. an interesting option if Portland does have to trade Aldridge or lose him for nothing would be Jimmy Butler from the Bulls. as much as all Blazer fans hate to admit it, we really don't know what form Matthews will be in next year, presuming he is even retained. getting a 25 year old, 20ppg shooting guard/small forward in exchange for Aldridge at least sets up the back court for Portland for the foreseeable future.

If Aldridge leaves, I would explore trading Dame for a high pick or two. Start with a clean slate.

if Aldridge stays, I totally support trading Lillard and Lopez (S&T) for Cousins and Collison - especially if Stotts is replaced. I'm a big Lillard fan as much as any Blazer, but in the league right now, elite centers are rare. score-first point guards are not. and we've all seen Memphis man-handle Lopez in the playoffs, just like Howard man-handled Lopez in last year's playoffs.

but if Aldridge leaves, I don't know. Lillard is proven, young, and it may take several seasons just to find someone at his level. but then again, without Aldridge or some other all-star tier forward to help spread the floor, there is a realistic chance that Lillard could become the next Stevie Francis.

[Norm2953]

Likely you'll see some talk of Dame going to the Lakers talk for their pick in this draft
if a total rebuild is the decision.

[Blazinaway]

I'd like to find a way to get Brooke Lopez. The Blazers need a big down low. That will help the 3 point shooters and even help Aldridge plus it would give the Blazers another scorer on the floor versus whatever Rolo gives you.

I want nothing to do with Brooke Lopez for a simple reason:

in the last 4 seasons, he's missed 144 games due to injury.

even with Portland's pristine track record when it comes to centers staying healthy?

with Aldridge gone, Portland desperately needs a PF....but why bother? OK...I guess it's no fun to give up, and since I started this with cap-space in mind, here's a few free agent ideas (PF's):

* Paul Millsap (almost certainly out of Portland's price range, even if Kaman is released. Probably a long shot but maybe he still feels good about Portland because of their contract offer in 2010. Truthfully, with a different coach and a different offense, the Blazers could be an interesting team with Millsap replacing Aldridge)

if Aldridge wants out, Paul Millsap would be a very realistic target in a sign-and-trade. Aldridge would likely sign off as he would be going to a contender, Atlanta would sign off as Aldridge is a much better player than Millsap, and Portland would likely sign off as a recent all-star power forward is a solid return for a player that they were going to lose in free agency.

personally, I'm not a huge fan of Millsap as he's 30, and he isn't a good enough player where I see Portland making the playoffs with Lillard/post-Achilles Matthews/Batum/Millsap/Lopez. as a result, Portland would have a very expensive roster with limited growth potential.

Monroe would be a great target. he's 24, productive, and relatively healthy for a big. but I believe Detroit lost his bird rights when he accepted the QO, and even if they had them, I cannot see Aldridge agreeing to a sign-and-trade where he ends up in Detroit. maybe it could work with a third team involved... maybe.

presuming the Clippers meltdown against the Spurs, would they consider an Aldridge for Griffin swap if Portland included some win-now role players like Matthews, Lopez, etc.? the Clippers go win-now, while Portland gets a bit younger to build around a Lillard/Griffin duo.

from a talent standpoint, the ultimate sign-and-trade for Aldridge would be for Kevin Love. Aldridge would be going to a championship contender in the Cavs, the Cavs get a much better fit for the third option in their offense, Portland replaces their all-star power forward with a younger all-star power forward, and Love gets to be the #1 option on a team that shoots a lot and doesn't play defense. of course, I don't see Love agreeing to play for Portland, even with family ties to the area.

I'm sure Golden State would consider sign-and-trading Draymond Green for Aldridge, but one - Green is about to get overpaid, and two - Green is a glue guy. adding him to a team potentially full of glue guys like Batum, Matthews, Lopez, Afflalo, etc. is nice, but it'd be an expensive roster with no chance of contending.

but that's presuming that the Blazers go the power forward route. an interesting option if Portland does have to trade Aldridge or lose him for nothing would be Jimmy Butler from the Bulls. as much as all Blazer fans hate to admit it, we really don't know what form Matthews will be in next year, presuming he is even retained. getting a 25 year old, 20ppg shooting guard/small forward in exchange for Aldridge at least sets up the back court for Portland for the foreseeable future.

If Aldridge leaves, I would explore trading Dame for a high pick or two. Start with a clean slate.

if Aldridge stays, I totally support trading Lillard and Lopez (S&T) for Cousins and Collison - especially if Stotts is replaced. I'm a big Lillard fan as much as any Blazer, but in the league right now, elite centers are rare. score-first point guards are not. and we've all seen Memphis man-handle Lopez in the playoffs, just like Howard man-handled Lopez in last year's playoffs.

but if Aldridge leaves, I don't know. Lillard is proven, young, and it may take several seasons just to find someone at his level. but then again, without Aldridge or some other all-star tier forward to help spread the floor, there is a realistic chance that Lillard could become the next Stevie Francis.

what intrigues me in your list was Chicago, however if we did a sign and trade with them I would want Butler and Taj Gibson (or perhaps Noah instead), as they would have no need for Taj with LMA there, perhaps we would need to add a bit to get both? Afflalo or CJ?

[Wizenheimer]

what intrigues me in your list was Chicago, however if we did a sign and trade with them I would want Butler and Taj Gibson (or perhaps Noah instead), as they would have no need for Taj with LMA there, perhaps we would need to add a bit to get both? Afflalo or CJ?

not a chance at all the Bulls trade Butler, not for Aldridge. Just like the Spurs would not trade Kawhi Leonard for Aldridge. Those caliber players are off the table, IMO. People need to stop pipe-dreaming

Blazers could probably get Gibson and maybe Sacramento's 1st, but Chi would have to add another 5 million in salary. I know Bulls fans would say no to including Mirotic, and I doubt the Bulls would want to gut their big man depth by sending both Gibson and Gasol.

it might have to be something like Gibson + Hinrich + McDermott + a 1st for Aldridge, and even then, the Bulls might balk.They are doing pretty well without Aldridge

[The Sebastian Express]

If Thibs was fired I would look into hiring him regardless if we resign LMA or not. Damian and him seem to be big fans of each other and appreciated each other at the USA camps.

[PDXKnight]

In response to anyone with the idea of dealing away Lillard in the scenario that LA bolts that idea is simply foolish. Lillard is a 2 time all-star in his third season and while his decision making has been questionable at times he's a young player and has plenty of room to get that figured out. Most players don't have prime caliber iq at 24. While there's a small amount of risk involved in giving Lillard a max deal that risk is well worth it and no way in heck do you deal him for an unproven draft pick. Heck even if we could get Jahlil Okafor for Dame there's always that risk Jahilil doesn't pan out. Any team with a high pick would be foolish to not deal a top 5 pick for Dame and we'd be equally foolish to offer it. Portland will not deal Dame nor should they considering that Dame has at least a 6-8 year window with how young he is. In the worst case scenario plenty of teams would give us a decent return to "take him off our hands" even on a max contract.

If LA leaves dealing Batum is the obvious thing to do. I'm fairly convinced the Blazers with Lillard-CJ-?-Meyers-? would be sufficiently bad enough to "earn" a high top 5 first rounder. Get whatever we can for Nic, LA (Sign and trade if he doesn't resign), and the other impending FA's if we can find sign and trades and call it good. The losing will take care of itself in the tough west and the Blazers will not be able to make a big signing in free agency so giving up any of our young players is virtually pointless. Pay Lillard to retain him, possibly extend Meyers for 4 years 28 mil in case he breaks out next season as a starter and build through cheap draft picks and use whatever cap space we can to take on contracts in return for assets. Cap space is about worthless on a rebuilding team anyhow

[Revived]

I'm not buying it. What happened to all the Lillard, Aldridge & Batum love they had for one another and wanting to stay together?

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1384891#start_here

[JasonStern]

not a chance at all the Bulls trade Butler, not for Aldridge. They are doing pretty well without Aldridge.
it might have to be something like Gibson + Hinrich + McDermott + a 1st for Aldridge, and even then, the Bulls might balk.

I'm not sure if I'm underrating Butler or you're underrating Aldridge. while I see value in Butler's age and contract, the Bulls are contenders. but Gasol is up there, Rose is a question mark, and Noah is nearly the same age as Aldridge. while Butler has had a great season, he's had just that - a great season, all-star worthy. meanwhile, Aldridge is in his prime and likely going to continue his streak of being an all-NBA player.

would Chicago love to trade their ancillary pieces for such a player? absolutely. but you're looking at something similar to a Marc Gasol for Damian Lillard trade and going, "I'd rather trade Lopez, Crabbe, and a protected 1st." of course you would. but Portland has no obligation to facilitate a trade with Chicago, so if the pieces don't work, they're better off going elsewhere.

Gibson serves no role on Portland's team. he'd be a complimentary player like Afflalo, which would be nice to have if Portland was contending, but they aren't making the playoffs in the west without Aldridge. Hinrich is a rich man's Steve Blake, and a rich man's Steve Blake is still Steve Blake. McDermott is a 3ppg backup. and we know Portland's history with late 1sts.

if Portland can't land one legitimate prospect for Aldridge, then they're better off just letting him walk. locking up salary to battle for the 9th/10th seed is a flawed approach to moving on after Aldridge. and it's not like there isn't precedent here - the Jazz landed Favors for Williams.

Just like the Spurs would not trade Kawhi Leonard for Aldridge.

the Spurs are a different subject entirely, which is why I didn't bring them up.

[Wizenheimer]

not a chance at all the Bulls trade Butler, not for Aldridge. They are doing pretty well without Aldridge.
it might have to be something like Gibson + Hinrich + McDermott + a 1st for Aldridge, and even then, the Bulls might balk.

I'm not sure if I'm underrating Butler or you're underrating Aldridge. while I see value in Butler's age and contract, the Bulls are contenders.

Just like the Spurs would not trade Kawhi Leonard for Aldridge.

the Spurs are a different subject entirely, which is why I didn't bring them up.

I'd be pretty certain that the Bulls view Butler in the same manner that the Spurs view Leonard. and there's no way the Spurs trade Leonard for Aldridge I'm sure you agree

but please, go to the trade board and propose an Aldridge for Butler swap. I'll be curious about the responses from Bulls fans. Maybe I'm wrong

[No-Man]

It is either Dallas or San Antonio at this point, he doesnt like Dwight so I have a hard time seeing him going to Houston.
The rest of the destinations dont make much sense, I think he ends up in SA if Duncan retires.

[PDX MM]

It is either Dallas or San Antonio at this point, he doesnt like Dwight so I have a hard time seeing him going to Houston.
The rest of the destinations dont make much sense, I think he ends up in SA if Duncan retires.

What are you basing the Howard/LMA dislike on? I don't recall anything ever being said and while I don't think they are BFFs they do seem to have a mutual respect for each other. Plus if LMA's true desire is to return home or as close to it as possible and Houston is the only team making an offer I think he would take it.

[jhern87]

LaMarcus's body language tells me he's gone. Just hoping for some kind of package to come in return. I don't see the point of replacing him with a lower tier player as that just solidifies us as a middle of the road team. If LaMarcus bolts then I think a rebuild needs to be considered.

[MakDagr]

Paul Allen won't allow another Rebuild. With LA becoming an unrestricted Free Agent, are we still able to trade his rights until a certain date, or is everything completely in his hands?

[Wizenheimer]

Paul Allen won't allow another Rebuild. With LA becoming an unrestricted Free Agent, are we still able to trade his rights until a certain date, or is everything completely in his hands?

he's an unrestricted free agent...everything is in his hands if he's willing to go to a team that has sufficient cap-space. Portland loses

and if he's willing to sign a 1 year deal for a little less then max, quite a few options are open to him

[oldfishermen]

LMA quotes:

I just want to get a five-year deal. I feel like that's the best decision on my part."

"I want to be the best Blazer — ever," Aldridge said. "If I stay the rest of my career, I should be able to catch Clyde by then. I should be able to leave a mark on a big-time franchise that is going to be seen forever. And I will be able to say I played here my whole career. This city has embraced me and grown with me. I have so much history, it just makes sense to stay."

I'm looking forward to signing the five-year deal when the chance comes."

[MakDagr]

LMA quotes:

I just want to get a five-year deal. I feel like that's the best decision on my part."

"I want to be the best Blazer — ever," Aldridge said. "If I stay the rest of my career, I should be able to catch Clyde by then. I should be able to leave a mark on a big-time franchise that is going to be seen forever. And I will be able to say I played here my whole career. This city has embraced me and grown with me. I have so much history, it just makes sense to stay."

I'm looking forward to signing the five-year deal when the chance comes."

Funny how times have changed over 6 months...

[Wizenheimer]

I'm seeing some pretty silly trade idea for LMA

for instance, San Antonio could theoretically create enough cap-space to sign Aldridge outright while keeping Kahwi Leonard. So, why the hell would they trade Leonard for Aldridge?? It make no sense at all

I don't think Portland will get anything in trade if Aldridge leaves, not unless he's determined to go to a team that has no cap-space. The best the Blazers could probably hope for is a TPE, but I don't even see incentive for that from another team's perspective.

I said it before and feel like saying it again: Olshey spent 3 off-seasons cheap-screwing benches together of low-caliber, over-the-hill vets and inconsistent, unproductive young guys...all the while deferring any significant moves till 2015 in order to see what Aldridge would do. Ironically, it may be that deferring significant moves is the very act that pushes Aldridge out of the door