2019 Offseason, June 30th 3PM PT.

[d-train]

CJ to any team that will take him, for a future 1st round pick
Turner and our 1st to a team with space to get him off the books.

That would be us well under the cap, and we could retain our bench. Portland's best course is to build a deep roster with a quality bench rather than hoping to somehow get another star.

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

[Fitz303]

CJ to any team that will take him, for a future 1st round pick
Turner and our 1st to a team with space to get him off the books.

That would be us well under the cap, and we could retain our bench. Portland's best course is to build a deep roster with a quality bench rather than hoping to somehow get another star.

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Not sure where you're getting those numbers, but according to spotrac, the active salary is 126 mil, and there are 25 mil in cap holds. CJ and Turner combine for 46 mil next season. That would give them an active salary of 80 mil and a total salary with holds of 105 mil. The salary cap is 109 mil. That would give the Blazers 29 mil in potential cap space, or 4 mil of cap space if you wanted to keep everyone's cap holds (actually, roughly 2 million less with 2 more roster charges), unless I'm missing something

[DusterBuster]

CJ to any team that will take him, for a future 1st round pick
Turner and our 1st to a team with space to get him off the books.

That would be us well under the cap, and we could retain our bench. Portland's best course is to build a deep roster with a quality bench rather than hoping to somehow get another star.

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Not sure where you're getting those numbers, but according to spotrac, the active salary is 126 mil, and there are 25 mil in cap holds. CJ and Turner combine for 46 mil next season. That would give them an active salary of 80 mil and a total salary with holds of 105 mil. The salary cap is 109 mil. That would give the Blazers 29 mil in potential cap space, or 4 mil of cap space if you wanted to keep everyone's cap holds (actually, roughly 2 million less with 2 more roster charges), unless I'm missing something

I'm confused by that as well. Maybe he's assuming the Blazers would be taking back salary in any deal moving those two?

[d-train]

CJ to any team that will take him, for a future 1st round pick
Turner and our 1st to a team with space to get him off the books.

That would be us well under the cap, and we could retain our bench. Portland's best course is to build a deep roster with a quality bench rather than hoping to somehow get another star.

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Not sure where you're getting those numbers, but according to spotrac, the active salary is 126 mil, and there are 25 mil in cap holds. CJ and Turner combine for 46 mil next season. That would give them an active salary of 80 mil and a total salary with holds of 105 mil. The salary cap is 109 mil. That would give the Blazers 29 mil in potential cap space, or 4 mil of cap space if you wanted to keep everyone's cap holds (actually, roughly 2 million less with 2 more roster charges), unless I'm missing something

I used a salary cap projection of $108M. Since it makes no sense to renounce the MLE for less cap room, you need to add $9.16M for this exception. And, since we are over the cap there is the BAE of $3.6M unless it is renounced. If you renounce the cap holds of Aminu, Hood, Curry, Layman, and Kanter in addition to giving away CJ, Turner, and $9.16M MLE, you would have $23.1M cap room. The obvious question is, what would you do with that cap room that is worth all that you give up. In addition to what you give up, why would Lillard want to continue playing for a losing team when he will be 30 at the end of next season.

[Fitz303]

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Not sure where you're getting those numbers, but according to spotrac, the active salary is 126 mil, and there are 25 mil in cap holds. CJ and Turner combine for 46 mil next season. That would give them an active salary of 80 mil and a total salary with holds of 105 mil. The salary cap is 109 mil. That would give the Blazers 29 mil in potential cap space, or 4 mil of cap space if you wanted to keep everyone's cap holds (actually, roughly 2 million less with 2 more roster charges), unless I'm missing something

I used a salary cap projection of $108M. Since it makes no sense to renounce the MLE for less cap room, you need to add $9.16M for this exception. And, since we are over the cap there is the BAE of $3.6M unless it is renounced. If you renounce the cap holds of Aminu, Hood, Curry, Layman, and Kanter in addition to giving away CJ, Turner, and $9.16M MLE, you would have $23.1M cap room. The obvious question is, what would you do with that cap room that is worth all that you give up. In addition to what you give up, why would Lillard want to continue playing for a losing team when he will be 30 at the end of next season.

As far as I know, you dont get the MLE if you're under the cap at any point. You can get the "room exception" after you make your signings, which is in the 4+ mil per season range, but the MLE is not available if you drop below the salary cap. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that's the case.

Anyhow, I'm not saying it's a good idea, though in fantasy land, if they can lure in someone like AD with cap space easier than with CJ, I'd say it's a great idea. I'd easily give up CJ, Turner, and Aminu for AD, then re-sign Hood and Layman

[d-train]

Not sure where you're getting those numbers, but according to spotrac, the active salary is 126 mil, and there are 25 mil in cap holds. CJ and Turner combine for 46 mil next season. That would give them an active salary of 80 mil and a total salary with holds of 105 mil. The salary cap is 109 mil. That would give the Blazers 29 mil in potential cap space, or 4 mil of cap space if you wanted to keep everyone's cap holds (actually, roughly 2 million less with 2 more roster charges), unless I'm missing something

I used a salary cap projection of $108M. Since it makes no sense to renounce the MLE for less cap room, you need to add $9.16M for this exception. And, since we are over the cap there is the BAE of $3.6M unless it is renounced. If you renounce the cap holds of Aminu, Hood, Curry, Layman, and Kanter in addition to giving away CJ, Turner, and $9.16M MLE, you would have $23.1M cap room. The obvious question is, what would you do with that cap room that is worth all that you give up. In addition to what you give up, why would Lillard want to continue playing for a losing team when he will be 30 at the end of next season.

As far as I know, you dont get the MLE if you're under the cap at any point. You can get the "room exception" after you make your signings, which is in the 4+ mil per season range, but the MLE is not available if you drop below the salary cap. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that's the case.

Anyhow, I'm not saying it's a good idea, though in fantasy land, if they can lure in someone like AD with cap space easier than with CJ, I'd say it's a great idea. I'd easily give up CJ, Turner, and Aminu for AD, then re-sign Hood and Layman

I believe you are wrong. Every team starts with the MLE. Some teams renounce it to increase their cap room. However, you wouldn't renounce it if by doing so, you decrease the money you have to sign a free agent. The room exception is an exception a team can get if it renounces its MLE and uses up its cap room by signing free agents.

[Wizenheimer]

CJ to any team that will take him, for a future 1st round pick
Turner and our 1st to a team with space to get him off the books.

That would be us well under the cap, and we could retain our bench. Portland's best course is to build a deep roster with a quality bench rather than hoping to somehow get another star.

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Not sure where you're getting those numbers, but according to spotrac, the active salary is 126 mil, and there are 25 mil in cap holds. CJ and Turner combine for 46 mil next season. That would give them an active salary of 80 mil and a total salary with holds of 105 mil. The salary cap is 109 mil. That would give the Blazers 29 mil in potential cap space, or 4 mil of cap space if you wanted to keep everyone's cap holds (actually, roughly 2 million less with 2 more roster charges), unless I'm missing something

that's pretty close, except for any assessed roster charges for less than 12 players (I think about 900K per slot)

trading both Turner and CJ for no salary seems like too tight a needle to thread though

[d-train]

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Not sure where you're getting those numbers, but according to spotrac, the active salary is 126 mil, and there are 25 mil in cap holds. CJ and Turner combine for 46 mil next season. That would give them an active salary of 80 mil and a total salary with holds of 105 mil. The salary cap is 109 mil. That would give the Blazers 29 mil in potential cap space, or 4 mil of cap space if you wanted to keep everyone's cap holds (actually, roughly 2 million less with 2 more roster charges), unless I'm missing something

that's pretty close, except for any assessed roster charges for less than 12 players (I think about 900K per slot)

trading both Turner and CJ for no salary seems like too tight a needle to thread though

I don't believe you would have roster charges unless you renounced cap holds. We have cap holds on Aminu, Hood, Curry, Layman, Kanter, and our 1st round pick. That's 6 cap holds plus 8 players under contract if you give away CJ and Turner. If you renounce the 5 cap holds, you would have 3 roster charges.

[d-train]

What's the best way for Blazers to create cap room and how much could they create?

We have 10 players under contract next year. If we keep the best 3 (Lillard, CJ, & Nurkic) plus Collins and Trent, trade the other 5 taking no contracts back, renounce our 5 cap holds, and trade our 1st round draft pick, we would have $21.7M cap room. That includes 7 roster charges for empty roster spots. To get $21.7M cap room, we would have to give away Turner, Harkless, Leonard, Simons, Labissiere, Aminu, Layman, Hood, Curry, Kanter, and our 1st round pick. We would have no chance to get a top-tier player for that amount of cap room in 2019 free agency when so many teams have cap room. The list of teams with max cap room is long and the list of top-tier players is very short. Would Lillard, CJ, and Nurkic attract a top-tier player to take less money? In 2016, when Lillard and CJ were younger, they didn't attract anything near a top-tier talent and Blazers had potentially max money.

[DusterBuster]

What's the best way for Blazers to create cap room and how much could they create?

We have 10 players under contract next year. If we keep the best 3 (Lillard, CJ, & Nurkic) plus Collins and Trent, trade the other 5 taking no contracts back, renounce our 5 cap holds, and trade our 1st round draft pick, we would have $21.7M cap room. That includes 7 roster charges for empty roster spots. To get $21.7M cap room, we would have to give away Turner, Harkless, Leonard, Simons, Labissiere, Aminu, Layman, Hood, Curry, Kanter, and our 1st round pick. We would have no chance to get a top-tier player for that amount of cap room in 2019 free agency when so many teams have cap room. The list of teams with max cap room is long and the list of top-tier players is very short. Would Lillard, CJ, and Nurkic attract a top-tier player to take less money? In 2016, when Lillard and CJ were younger, they didn't attract anything near a top-tier talent and Blazers had potentially max money.

Just to be clear, you don't have to renounce players during negotiations. You can negotiate deals with players as though those holds weren't on the books, then only actually renounce the players after a deal is agreed to and that space needs to be opened up. Cap holds aren't nearly as big of a roadblock as they are made out to be it seems.

[Sinobas]

CJ to any team that will take him, for a future 1st round pick
Turner and our 1st to a team with space to get him off the books.

That would be us well under the cap, and we could retain our bench. Portland's best course is to build a deep roster with a quality bench rather than hoping to somehow get another star.

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Their salaries next year will combine for 46 of the teams 126 mil in committed salary. The projected cap for next year is 109 mil. So how does 126-46= 118?

[DusterBuster]

CJ to any team that will take him, for a future 1st round pick
Turner and our 1st to a team with space to get him off the books.

That would be us well under the cap, and we could retain our bench. Portland's best course is to build a deep roster with a quality bench rather than hoping to somehow get another star.

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Their salaries next year will combine for 46 of the teams 126 mil in committed salary. The projected cap for next year is 109 mil. So how does 126-46= 118?

His numbers are pretty out of whack it seems. Maybe he's including the Blazers FA cap holds? Like I said though, paying attention to cap holds is pretty pointless considering its not a serious roadblock to negotiations or even signing a player to a deal as long as you know which players you're ok losing for a high priced FA.

[Norm2953]

I’d be curious to know how high a first round pick we could get for CJ. Is this a realistic option
if Portland has a decent playoff run and guys like Hood and Kanter indicate to NO they want to
stay?

[DusterBuster]

I’d be curious to know how high a first round pick we could get for CJ. Is this a realistic option
if Portland has a decent playoff run and guys like Hood and Kanter indicate to NO they want to
stay?

It just totally depends on what teams are at what spot in the lottery. Generally the only teams that would consider trading a high lottery for a veteran is a team that is already veteran laiden and just missed the playoffs because of injury or something like that. That or a team that thinks they're one piece away from being a lottery team to a playoff team, but those teams will usually have a pick later in the lottery... 8 or below ish.

Teams I think would give up their lottery pick for CJ... Kings, Heat, TWolves, Lakers (not sure they own their picks), and Magic. On the bubble teams at the moment who could miss and still offer their lotto pick if they get one... Pistons, Nets, Hornets, Spurs. Maybe Clippers if they think he would help attract a new FA, but then PDX will need to take back some salary.

That a long way of saying CJ would probably return a lottery pick in the 8-14 range.

[d-train]

CJ to any team that will take him, for a future 1st round pick
Turner and our 1st to a team with space to get him off the books.

That would be us well under the cap, and we could retain our bench. Portland's best course is to build a deep roster with a quality bench rather than hoping to somehow get another star.

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Their salaries next year will combine for 46 of the teams 126 mil in committed salary. The projected cap for next year is 109 mil. So how does 126-46= 118?

I thought my explanation was clear.

126+ Salaries
24.7+ Cap holds (Aminu, Layman, Hood, Curry, & 1st rnd pk)
46- CJ & Turner
9.16+ MLE
3.6+ BAE
117.46= Total
108- Salary cap
9.46= Over cap

We are over the cap unless you renounce the $9.16M MLE and the $3.6M BAE. I suppose in a world where we give away CJ we might also renounce a $9.16M and $3.6M exception in exchange for $3.3M cap room.

[d-train]

I’d be curious to know how high a first round pick we could get for CJ. Is this a realistic option
if Portland has a decent playoff run and guys like Hood and Kanter indicate to NO they want to
stay?

It just totally depends on what teams are at what spot in the lottery. Generally the only teams that would consider trading a high lottery for a veteran is a team that is already veteran laiden and just missed the playoffs because of injury or something like that. That or a team that thinks they're one piece away from being a lottery team to a playoff team, but those teams will usually have a pick later in the lottery... 8 or below ish.

Teams I think would give up their lottery pick for CJ... Kings, Heat, TWolves, Lakers (not sure they own their picks), and Magic. On the bubble teams at the moment who could miss and still offer their lotto pick if they get one... Pistons, Nets, Hornets, Spurs. Maybe Clippers if they think he would help attract a new FA, but then PDX will need to take back some salary.

That a long way of saying CJ would probably return a lottery pick in the 8-14 range.

A draft might yield 3 or 4 better players than CJ. You are not guaranteed a better player even with a 1-3 pick. You would guarantee a 29 year old Lillard demands he be traded also. And, you guarantee all your 28(+) year old RFA leave for a team trying to win. Good and bad decisions have a snowball effect.

[d-train]

No, you are wrong. If all you give away is CJ and Turner, you are still $9.3M over the cap. You need to give away more to get under the cap.

Their salaries next year will combine for 46 of the teams 126 mil in committed salary. The projected cap for next year is 109 mil. So how does 126-46= 118?

His numbers are pretty out of whack it seems. Maybe he's including the Blazers FA cap holds? Like I said though, paying attention to cap holds is pretty pointless considering its not a serious roadblock to negotiations or even signing a player to a deal as long as you know which players you're ok losing for a high priced FA.

You only get $21.7M cap room if you renounce all your cap holds. CJ is worth more than $21.7M. CJ would get a salary starting at over $30M, more than $130M total, if he were a UFA this summer. Aminu is worth a big chunk of that $21.7M. The $9.16 MLE is a good chunk of that $21.7M. Layman is worth something. A 1st round pick is worth something. I suppose the cap holds on Hood, Curry, & Kanter are worthless once you start liquidating the team.

I thought this dumb idea illustrated the idea of cap room is ridiculous. It would make way more sense to consider getting enough below the tax threshold to get the $9.16M MLE. And, even then it would only make sense if Kanter was willing to sign for that amount of money because you wouldn't get much of a player in the 2019 free agent market.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I’d be curious to know how high a first round pick we could get for CJ. Is this a realistic option
if Portland has a decent playoff run and guys like Hood and Kanter indicate to NO they want to
stay?

It just totally depends on what teams are at what spot in the lottery. Generally the only teams that would consider trading a high lottery for a veteran is a team that is already veteran laiden and just missed the playoffs because of injury or something like that. That or a team that thinks they're one piece away from being a lottery team to a playoff team, but those teams will usually have a pick later in the lottery... 8 or below ish.

Teams I think would give up their lottery pick for CJ... Kings, Heat, TWolves, Lakers (not sure they own their picks), and Magic. On the bubble teams at the moment who could miss and still offer their lotto pick if they get one... Pistons, Nets, Hornets, Spurs. Maybe Clippers if they think he would help attract a new FA, but then PDX will need to take back some salary.

That a long way of saying CJ would probably return a lottery pick in the 8-14 range.

A draft might yield 3 or 4 better players than CJ. You are not guaranteed a better player even with a 1-3 pick. You would guarantee a 29 year old Lillard demands he be traded also. And, you guarantee all your 28(+) year old RFA leave for a team trying to win. Good and bad decisions have a snowball effect.

I don't know how many 28+ year old RFA's we will have, but we will lose all our FA's anyways because we cannot afford to pay them. Dumping CJ for a lottery pick in order to resign Hood+Kanter+Layman is not a "chicken little, lets all freak out" type move. I just don't think CJ is that essential to the success of the team - in terms of Win Shares per minute CJ ranks 9th on the team.

[d-train]

The best free agents the Blazers could get in a tight 2018 market with $5.3M MLE was Curry and Stauskas. The 2019 market is going to be more like the 2016 market than the 2018 market.

[d-train]

It just totally depends on what teams are at what spot in the lottery. Generally the only teams that would consider trading a high lottery for a veteran is a team that is already veteran laiden and just missed the playoffs because of injury or something like that. That or a team that thinks they're one piece away from being a lottery team to a playoff team, but those teams will usually have a pick later in the lottery... 8 or below ish.

Teams I think would give up their lottery pick for CJ... Kings, Heat, TWolves, Lakers (not sure they own their picks), and Magic. On the bubble teams at the moment who could miss and still offer their lotto pick if they get one... Pistons, Nets, Hornets, Spurs. Maybe Clippers if they think he would help attract a new FA, but then PDX will need to take back some salary.

That a long way of saying CJ would probably return a lottery pick in the 8-14 range.

A draft might yield 3 or 4 better players than CJ. You are not guaranteed a better player even with a 1-3 pick. You would guarantee a 29 year old Lillard demands he be traded also. And, you guarantee all your 28(+) year old RFA leave for a team trying to win. Good and bad decisions have a snowball effect.

I don't know how many 28+ year old RFA's we will have, but we will lose all our FA's anyways because we cannot afford to pay them. Dumping CJ for a lottery pick in order to resign Hood+Kanter+Layman is not a "chicken little, lets all freak out" type move. I just don't think CJ is that essential to the success of the team - in terms of Win Shares per minute CJ ranks 9th on the team.

We can keep CJ and resign Aminu, Layman guaranteed. We can probably also resign Hood and Curry, but not if we blow up the team by trading CJ. We might be able to resign Kanter if we get enough below the luxury tax to get the $9.16M MLE. We would need to intelligently cut around $25M in payroll and/or cap holds. By intelligently, I mean it's only worth cutting players that are not better than Kanter (like CJ and Aminu). It might be better to just let Kanter go and sign the best player we can get for $5.7M.

Edit:
CJ is essential to winning games. I don't care about win shares or other garbage stats.