Mike Schmitz - Draft Guru

[Wizenheimer]

But he fits their apparent archetype, 6'7-6'9 forwards who are athletic but cannot shoot.

the irony is they do have a 6'8 forward who is a very good shooter and he's the player most likely to be traded

[Walton1one]

Yeah, a 30yr old one who is owed $29/$32/$34/$36 over the next few years, and takes the last few months of the season off every year.

[Wizenheimer]

Yeah, a 30yr old one who is owed $29/$32/$34/$36 over the next few years, and takes the last few months of the season off every year.

taking time off at the end of seasons is a team decision...alter of the tank god

my point was that if shooting skill was coveted by the Blazers,Grant would not be on the trading block.

[Walton1one]

Which is why Cronin as GM for POR is becoming more concerning with each passing week.

Unable\willing to make moves\trade vets

Unable to see\address the blatant weakness of this team (shooting)

Unwilling? to put the right complementary players around their high lottery picks to help their development

[Walton1one]

and Grant should be on the trading block regardless of POR shooting woes, A 30-year-old forward on a team focused on their young core makes no sense, just like not drafting shooters to go around Scoot, and a team with atrocious outside shooting is also ridiculous/short sighted

[zzaj]

and Grant should be on the trading block regardless of POR shooting woes, A 30-year-old forward on a team focused on their young core makes no sense, just like not drafting shooters to go around Scoot, and a team with atrocious outside shooting is also ridiculous/short sighted

While I agree that Grant should be traded, for me he's a little bit down the to-do list. He's not blocking anyone's development and he'll be a good outlet for both Scoot and Deni. Potentially Clingan, too...

IMO, Simons contract, and everything surrounding his end of season comments and Cronin's snub make him the #1 on the trade block. Gotta get in front of that before his value plummets even further than it already is...which is pretty low.

[Walton1one]

and Grant should be on the trading block regardless of POR shooting woes, A 30-year-old forward on a team focused on their young core makes no sense, just like not drafting shooters to go around Scoot, and a team with atrocious outside shooting is also ridiculous/short sighted

While I agree that Grant should be traded, for me he's a little bit down the to-do list. He's not blocking anyone's development and he'll be a good outlet for both Scoot and Deni. Potentially Clingan, too...

IMO, Simons contract, and everything surrounding his end of season comments and Cronin's snub make him the #1 on the trade block. Gotta get in front of that before his value plummets even further than it already is...which is pretty low.

I agree.

Priority should be:

1) Simons - Trading him clears up the back-court issue, it puts\makes the Scoot\Sharpe tandem the focal point for the year. It is critically important for POR to know what they have in both of these guys before the 2025 draft. Also, Simons' contract timeline (2yrs), makes it more imperative to trade him sooner rather than later if POR wants to maximize return value

2) Williams - IF POR can get something positive back for him (more than (1) 2nd and\or bench fodder) w\o risking playing him, then they should seriously consider it. Otherwise, play him limited\managed minutes and then definitely trade him at the deadline. Also, trading him clears the minutes logjam for Clingan, which needs to happen, he is the #7 pick and he needs to play, not starting year 1 is fine, let Ayton take those minutes, but he needs steady consistent minutes and he is not going to get that behind Ayton\Williams.

3) Grant - The age (in particular), the salary, the playstyle (ISO ball). He probably draws the most trade interest from other teams out of this group, which makes him more likely to be traded. Outside of his scoring, particularly 3pt shot, he really doesn't provide much else. Trading him likely elevates Camara to a starting role and clears the runway for Avdija to be more of a focal point of the team, which IMO makes more sense.

4) Thybulle - While value looks pretty negligible, he may have value to a playoff team, just don't expect a great return. he should be dealt though, just to clear up minutes for younger players like Camara, Walker (RFA) & Murray (don't have much hope there). Any minutes given to Thybulle, take away from younger players and he adds marginal\no value to this team

5) Ayton - Obviously, he is not worth his current salary, contract is up in 2 years. Not a good screen-setter (kind of an important skill for any team, let alone a team with a PG like Scoot), among other issues. However, he puts up steady points\boards, he gives Clingan 1-2 years to acclimate to an NBA starting role\minutes (hopefully) & his trade value is probably suppressed right now. If some team offers something of notable worth (1st round pick, young players) then absolutely deal him, but otherwise keep him around

[Wizenheimer]

and Grant should be on the trading block regardless of POR shooting woes, A 30-year-old forward on a team focused on their young core makes no sense, just like not drafting shooters to go around Scoot, and a team with atrocious outside shooting is also ridiculous/short sighted

While I agree that Grant should be traded, for me he's a little bit down the to-do list. He's not blocking anyone's development and he'll be a good outlet for both Scoot and Deni. Potentially Clingan, too...

IMO, Simons contract, and everything surrounding his end of season comments and Cronin's snub make him the #1 on the trade block. Gotta get in front of that before his value plummets even further than it already is...which is pretty low.

I agree.

Priority should be:

1) Simons - Trading him clears up the back-court issue, it puts\makes the Scoot\Sharpe tandem the focal point for the year. It is critically important for POR to know what they have in both of these guys before the 2025 draft. Also, Simons' contract timeline (2yrs), makes it more imperative to trade him sooner rather than later if POR wants to maximize return value

2) Williams - IF POR can get something positive back for him (more than (1) 2nd and\or bench fodder) w\o risking playing him, then they should seriously consider it. Otherwise, play him limited\managed minutes and then definitely trade him at the deadline. Also, trading him clears the minutes logjam for Clingan, which needs to happen, he is the #7 pick and he needs to play, not starting year 1 is fine, let Ayton take those minutes, but he needs steady consistent minutes and he is not going to get that behind Ayton\Williams.

3) Grant - The age (in particular), the salary, the playstyle (ISO ball). He probably draws the most trade interest from other teams out of this group, which makes him more likely to be traded. Outside of his scoring, particularly 3pt shot, he really doesn't provide much else. Trading him likely elevates Camara to a starting role and clears the runway for Avdija to be more of a focal point of the team, which IMO makes more sense.

4) Thybulle - While value looks pretty negligible, he may have value to a playoff team, just don't expect a great return. he should be dealt though, just to clear up minutes for younger players like Camara, Walker (RFA) & Murray (don't have much hope there). Any minutes given to Thybulle, take away from younger players and he adds marginal\no value to this team

5) Ayton - Obviously, he is not worth his current salary, contract is up in 2 years. Not a good screen-setter (kind of an important skill for any team, let alone a team with a PG like Scoot), among other issues. However, he puts up steady points\boards, he gives Clingan 1-2 years to acclimate to an NBA starting role\minutes (hopefully) & his trade value is probably suppressed right now. If some team offers something of notable worth (1st round pick, young players) then absolutely deal him, but otherwise keep him around

I'd move Ayton right up there next to Simons

I want both of them long gone before Cronin has a chance to give each 45M/year

[zzaj]

While I agree that Grant should be traded, for me he's a little bit down the to-do list. He's not blocking anyone's development and he'll be a good outlet for both Scoot and Deni. Potentially Clingan, too...

IMO, Simons contract, and everything surrounding his end of season comments and Cronin's snub make him the #1 on the trade block. Gotta get in front of that before his value plummets even further than it already is...which is pretty low.

I agree.

Priority should be:

1) Simons - Trading him clears up the back-court issue, it puts\makes the Scoot\Sharpe tandem the focal point for the year. It is critically important for POR to know what they have in both of these guys before the 2025 draft. Also, Simons' contract timeline (2yrs), makes it more imperative to trade him sooner rather than later if POR wants to maximize return value

2) Williams - IF POR can get something positive back for him (more than (1) 2nd and\or bench fodder) w\o risking playing him, then they should seriously consider it. Otherwise, play him limited\managed minutes and then definitely trade him at the deadline. Also, trading him clears the minutes logjam for Clingan, which needs to happen, he is the #7 pick and he needs to play, not starting year 1 is fine, let Ayton take those minutes, but he needs steady consistent minutes and he is not going to get that behind Ayton\Williams.

3) Grant - The age (in particular), the salary, the playstyle (ISO ball). He probably draws the most trade interest from other teams out of this group, which makes him more likely to be traded. Outside of his scoring, particularly 3pt shot, he really doesn't provide much else. Trading him likely elevates Camara to a starting role and clears the runway for Avdija to be more of a focal point of the team, which IMO makes more sense.

4) Thybulle - While value looks pretty negligible, he may have value to a playoff team, just don't expect a great return. he should be dealt though, just to clear up minutes for younger players like Camara, Walker (RFA) & Murray (don't have much hope there). Any minutes given to Thybulle, take away from younger players and he adds marginal\no value to this team

5) Ayton - Obviously, he is not worth his current salary, contract is up in 2 years. Not a good screen-setter (kind of an important skill for any team, let alone a team with a PG like Scoot), among other issues. However, he puts up steady points\boards, he gives Clingan 1-2 years to acclimate to an NBA starting role\minutes (hopefully) & his trade value is probably suppressed right now. If some team offers something of notable worth (1st round pick, young players) then absolutely deal him, but otherwise keep him around

I'd move Ayton right up there next to Simons

I want both of them long gone before Cronin has a chance to give each 45M/year

Yeah, I agree with that...I do think having a starting Center ahead of Clingan gives him a bit of a chance to acclimate, but in no way do I see a future where Ayton is the center for the Blazers next time they flirt with 50:50 basketball.

[BlazersBroncos]

I think my best case scenario w/ Ayton is he balls out w/ empty stats this year to the tune of like 24/12 and we find a sucker team to offload him on this summer. Gives us a year to let Donovan to acclimate and we get to sell high on DA.

I think the most likely scenario is he just plays out his contract here and walks though.

[Walton1one]

Yeah, I don't think Ayton is a long-term piece for POR, and I would not be upset if he were dealt for some moderate assets (dumping him for nothing makes no sense to me though), but Clingan averaged 22 minutes LY, having him come in\start and play 30 minutes is not in his or the teams best interest IMO, but I would like to see him have a defined backup role, which the way current roster is comprised is not likely to happen.

It will be interesting to see what sort of contract Aytn gets when he becomes a FA, $20 million\year? less? more?

[Wizenheimer]

I think my best case scenario w/ Ayton is he balls out w/ empty stats this year to the tune of like 24/12 and we find a sucker team to offload him on this summer. Gives us a year to let Donovan to acclimate and we get to sell high on DA.

I think the most likely scenario is he just plays out his contract here and walks though.

12 rebounds/game I can see

but averaging 24 points? I can't see that. If you go by last season's efficiency, for Ayton to average 24, he'd have o average 19.6 FGA/game. That's kind of insane. 19.6 FGA last season would have been more shots/game than Curry, Tatum, Booker, Durant, and Giannis. Ayton would have ranked 7th in the NBA in shot attempts. He would have shot more than any C in the league after Embiid. 1.7 more shots than Jokic; 2.7 more than Wemby; 4.3 more shots than KAT

Simons only averaged 18.2 FGA's; Grant 15.7. Ayton and Sharpe both averaged 13.6 shots last season. If Ayton's FGA go up by 6 shots a game, Simons and Grant won't be taking fewer shots; that's not in their DNA. Those 6 extra shots for Ayton will be coming from guys like Sharpe taking less.

by the way, Ayton averaged 32.4 minutes last season. That leaves less than 16 minutes a game at C for Timelord, Clingan, and Reath. I know the fantasy of some is to play Ayton at PF but that's a dumb fantasy

and if Cronin just lets Ayton walk instead of trading him in the next year or so, he's incompetent

[Blazers20]

Yikes, Kel’el Ware having a great January (13ppg-7rpg). Did the “Draft Guru” MISS AGAIN? Herro (24-6-5 for the season) a possible all star and instead Blazers got what for Dame (could had got Jovic and Herro possibly). Jovic (13-4-5 for January) also looks to be improving and also is having a good January. Schmitz isn’t much of a draft guru!

[Walton1one]

Yes, Ware has been good. I admittedly was not that interested in him due to criticisms\history of lackluster effort and questions about his passion for playing, but no doubt he has looked good.

It is funny, but sad, that Cronin comes out of the shadows for his PR interview before a game earlier this year and talks about how they still need more talent, but yet traded\sold off 2nd round picks that could have acquired such players who are in the rotations of top NBA teams (Mitchell\Wells\Ighodaro).

If a player is good enough to break into OKC\MEM\PHX rotations, then they are darned well good enough to be on POR roster. So, yes I think it is more than fair to question Cronin\Schmitz "guru" status, so far they have been far from deserving of that title.

[zzaj]

Yikes, Kel’el Ware having a great January (13ppg-7rpg). Did the “Draft Guru” MISS AGAIN? Herro (24-6-5 for the season) a possible all star and instead Blazers got what for Dame (could had got Jovic and Herro possibly). Jovic (13-4-5 for January) also looks to be improving and also is having a good January. Schmitz isn’t much of a draft guru!

Ware was a bit of a boom or bust type pick, which is why he went at the very end of the lottery. Blazers picking him at 7 would have been a bit of a reach. That being said, he's playing well and trending toward his "boom" scenario.

The Dame trade is a mixed bag, and we won't really be able to evaluate it until the future picks are used.

I tend to be a Schmitz apologist, and think he's done fairly well at identifying draftees and bringing in players that he was high on (Camara, Deni). But also think he has a "type" that blinds him. Certainly the draft is a crapshoot, and plenty of orgs get it wrong...I'd give Schmitz about a "B" maybe "B-" so far.

[Blazers20]

Schmitz should have all of the tools to be able to make good to decent decisions on draft picks (bringing players for workouts, access to videos and games, access to talking to the player(s) and there teammates and coaches and access to medical files including psyche evaluation.

I don’t think Portland should had drafted Ware at 7 but should had drafted Ware at 14 (or even maybe Edey). I did want to get a wing player with size and versatility at 7.

I also think Schmitz should had gone for Amen Thompson instead of Scoot just because of size and versatility.

[Myth]

Yikes, Kel’el Ware having a great January (13ppg-7rpg). Did the “Draft Guru” MISS AGAIN? Herro (24-6-5 for the season) a possible all star and instead Blazers got what for Dame (could had got Jovic and Herro possibly). Jovic (13-4-5 for January) also looks to be improving and also is having a good January. Schmitz isn’t much of a draft guru!

I’m happy with the trade we got for Dame. At this point, it is pretty much Deni, RWIII, and the Bucks pick/swaps. We also drafted Clingan who I am happy with. What I’m not happy with is not trading away our vets. Give the keys to the youngsters and let the team lose while they get developmental reps.

[Blazers20]

I’m not happy with the Dame trade. I think Cronin overpaid for Deni (I really like Deni). I would had rather have used the 7 and 14 pick on Buzelis and Ware instead of Clingan and trading multiple picks for Deni.

[Wizenheimer]

I’m not happy with the Dame trade. I think Cronin overpaid for Deni (I really like Deni). I would had rather have used the 7 and 14 pick on Buzelis and Ware instead of Clingan and trading multiple picks for Deni.

an alternative reality was to trade the #7 for Avdija, keep the 2029 first and one of the 2nd's, and use #14 on Ware

[zzaj]

Speculation about post-draft coulda woulda is just that. We have no idea what deals were on the table or what might have been...

It's easy to make favorable outcomes happen with the ammunition of hindsight. The reality is that the Blazers came out of the last draft with Deni and Clingan and owing a 29 first and two future seconds, while giving up Brogdon.

Deni is 9 months older than players like Knecht and DeSilva who came out of last year's draft. We would all be INCREDIBLY happy to have drafted a 23 year old that was as productive as Deni is right now...he's been the Blazers' best player for stretches this season, playing at 23-24 years old.

Clingan has some serious offensive warts, but at 20 has shown center position defensive ability that hasn't been around the Blazers in a long time. Will he end up a better pro than, Ware, or Missi, or Buzelis, or Cody Williams, or DaRon Holmes, or ANY player taken after #7? It's impossible to say at this point...again, speculation is speculation.