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2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#61 » by JasonStern » Tue Feb 25, 2025 5:56 pm

Tim Lehrbach wrote:
JasonStern wrote:
Walton1one wrote:I just respectfully disagree with this sentiment, first off Ayton is not going to re-sign in POR for $12mil, and even if your point is POR could sign him or Simons for less and therefore they would be a fine fit for this team, I think that is wishful thinking at best.


Which, again is fine. If they outplay their current contracts, you have two winning players that outplayed their current contracts. If they don't, you offer a reasonable contract. And if they don't accept that, you have over $50M in cap space freed after next season.

You might be able to flip either this off-season. But they are expirings. And while both are young enough not to have peaked yet, they have enough playing time that you know what you are getting. So, you're either taking on long-term contracts to get value. Or, best case, getting a late pick that is 95% likely to be some Kris Murray tier player.


Kinda relates to our other discussion. Your approach is probably more likely to win more games over the next several years. The alternative gamble you make is that the 5% chance at players better than Kris PLUS the whatever% chance you score in the lottery launches you much higher than the likes of Simons and Ayton. Nothing is guaranteed, not even getting positive contributions from retaining the veterans.


Drexler was drafted 14th. Roy was drafted 6th. Lillard was drafted 6th. Deni is arguably our best player, and he was drafted 9th. The idea that you have to be the laughing stock of the league and put on an unwatchable product in order to, cross your fingers, not blow a high pick is a fallacy. The 76ers tried this, had the worst record for like 3 seasons, and only ended up with Embiid to show for it.

I guess it works if you're San Antonio and gifted Wembanyama. But I'm a conspiracy theorist that the draft lottery has always been financially rigged. Lotto picks go to the highest bidder. And that's why rich owners get the best picks - Gilbert in Cleveland multiple times, Allen with the "generational" center in Oden, etc. There's nothing illegal about that, and the NBA is a private entity, so there's no reason to be transparent to the public about that. And if that theory is true, there is zero reason to tank. The Vulcans just want to turn a profit, and trying to outbid other teams in the lottery is not a high concern.

The Thunder are a better model for a rebuild. Better use of their assets during their tear-down. No panic moves. I think the Blazers are trying to do that. They just kind of aren't as good at it - in part because of decisions Olshey made. Three firsts for Covington and Nance? Look what the Heat got for Jimmy Butler. These types of moves are there. The Blazers just don't capitalize on them. SGA was drafted 11th and viewed as a throw in on the Paul George trade, much like Camara was in the Dame trade.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#62 » by Walton1one » Tue Feb 25, 2025 7:40 pm

Disregarding the Wembanyama, once in a generation unicorn pick. The best way to get a star player is in the draft and picking high gives you a much better chance to get that player than picking outside of the top 10 (where POR's pick is headed), the players are there, it is up to the teams to pick the right ones.

Yes, to your point, there are always players drafted later who end up being stars but banking on that to be as good of a way to get that player than by tanking and drafting high is a bad strategy

and you are not taking that #23 pick\Murray to get a star player, but to add another asset that could be used to GET that player (via trade) without gutting your own roster in the process, and POR has been good recently of finding rotational young players later in the draft (LY aside)

It is easy to look at the teams that had a high lottery pick and missed and ignore the teams around them that drafted correctly, but the bottom line is that in mostly every year there is a star\franchise player there to be picked, and in good years, there are several

Some years are worse than others, Some years like LY there may be few (if any) all-star caliber players, and in other years (like this year) there may be a couple\several. 2026 may end up being a better year overall than 25 if draft experts can be believed. 2025 is looking to be top-heavy and flat from mid-lottery on.

INSIDE THE TOP 10
2012 - NO Anthony Davis @ 31, POR Damian Lillard @ #6, Bradley Beal @ #3
2013 - There is no one
2014 - PHI Joel Embid @ #3
2015 - MIN Karl Anthony Towns @ #1, Kristaps Porzingis went #4
2016 - BOS Jaylen Brown @ #3, Brandon Ingram went #2 Jamal Murray went #7
2017 - BOS Jason Tatum @ #3, DeAron Fox went #5, Lauri Markkanen went #7
2018 - DAL Luka Doncic @ #3, Jaren Jackson went #4, Trae Young went #5, Mikael Bridges @ #10
2019 - NO Zion Williamson @ #1, MEM Ja Morant @ #2, Darius Garland went #5
2020 - MIN Anthony Edwards @ #1, LaMelo Ball went #3
2021 - DET Cade Cunningham @ #1, Evan Mobley went #3, Scottie Barnes went #4, Franz Wagner @ #8
2022 - ORL Paolo Banchero #1, OKC Chet Holmgren @ #2
2023 - SA Wembanyama @ #1, CHA Brandon Miller @ #2, Amen Thompson @ #4

OUTSIDE THE TOP 10
2012 - Draymond Green @ #35
2013 - Giannis @ #15, Gobert @ #27
2014 - Zach Lavine @ #13, Nikola Jokic @ #41
2015 - Myles Turner @ #11, Devin Booker @ #13
2016 - Domantas Sabonis @ #11, Pascal Siakam @ #27
2017 - Donavan Mitchell @ #13, Bam Adebayo @ #14
2018 - SGA @ #11, Jalen Brunson @ #33
2019 - none
2020 - Tyrese Haliburton @ #11, Tyrese Maxey @ #21,
2021 - Alperen Sengun @ #16, Jalen Johnson @ #20,
2022 - Jalen Williams @ #12,
2023 - none (yet)

Overall, there are a couple of guys in either group who have not been an all-star (yet) or have had only 1 appearance but generally the players chosen in the top 10 have more all-star appearances (and there are more star level players taken there in general) especially when you take out extreme outliers like 2nd round guys Jokic\Green.

Cronin should know this already though, he should also know that the strength of this draft (star potential wise) lies in the top 5 picks or so, but he has CHOSEN to go another route, inexplicably, It is why I think his intention is to trade whatever draft picks he can and Scoot or Sharpe or Clingan or 2 of 3 of them to try and get some disgruntled\available star player.

I don't think this will make a difference, a playoff team, but not a contending one, with 2-3 or more future 1st's traded away for a 5-year window of playoff mediocrity and the hamster wheel keeps turning

It will be fun\sickening to hear his reasoning when he has made that trade and sent Scoot\Sharpe or both away in a deal for Trae Young, Haliburton, oft-injured Zion or Devin Booker
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#63 » by Tim Lehrbach » Tue Feb 25, 2025 8:08 pm

JasonStern wrote:
Tim Lehrbach wrote:
JasonStern wrote:
Which, again is fine. If they outplay their current contracts, you have two winning players that outplayed their current contracts. If they don't, you offer a reasonable contract. And if they don't accept that, you have over $50M in cap space freed after next season.

You might be able to flip either this off-season. But they are expirings. And while both are young enough not to have peaked yet, they have enough playing time that you know what you are getting. So, you're either taking on long-term contracts to get value. Or, best case, getting a late pick that is 95% likely to be some Kris Murray tier player.


Kinda relates to our other discussion. Your approach is probably more likely to win more games over the next several years. The alternative gamble you make is that the 5% chance at players better than Kris PLUS the whatever% chance you score in the lottery launches you much higher than the likes of Simons and Ayton. Nothing is guaranteed, not even getting positive contributions from retaining the veterans.


Drexler was drafted 14th. Roy was drafted 6th. Lillard was drafted 6th. Deni is arguably our best player, and he was drafted 9th. The idea that you have to be the laughing stock of the league and put on an unwatchable product in order to, cross your fingers, not blow a high pick is a fallacy. The 76ers tried this, had the worst record for like 3 seasons, and only ended up with Embiid to show for it.

I guess it works if you're San Antonio and gifted Wembanyama. But I'm a conspiracy theorist that the draft lottery has always been financially rigged. Lotto picks go to the highest bidder. And that's why rich owners get the best picks - Gilbert in Cleveland multiple times, Allen with the "generational" center in Oden, etc. There's nothing illegal about that, and the NBA is a private entity, so there's no reason to be transparent to the public about that. And if that theory is true, there is zero reason to tank. The Vulcans just want to turn a profit, and trying to outbid other teams in the lottery is not a high concern.

The Thunder are a better model for a rebuild. Better use of their assets during their tear-down. No panic moves. I think the Blazers are trying to do that. They just kind of aren't as good at it - in part because of decisions Olshey made. Three firsts for Covington and Nance? Look what the Heat got for Jimmy Butler. These types of moves are there. The Blazers just don't capitalize on them. SGA was drafted 11th and viewed as a throw in on the Paul George trade, much like Camara was in the Dame trade.


I agree with a lot of what you say here! I am NOT a championship or tank advocate AT ALL. What Hinkie and the Sixers did was atrocious. Our disagreement is over the quality of the current roster. I want to turn it over in favor of draft picks because I don't think our guys are good. In other words, the opportunity cost is low. The Sixers destroyed a good team to chase draft dreams and played a silly game of drafting injured players to keep cycling through the top of the draft.

I do not want to suck for years and years, and continually tanking is a definite road to nowhere. But you can't settle on just anybody as a core. We have about two good players and another few who have potential and maybe look decent already if you squint.

As for non-draft means for acquiring top talent, I'll believe it when I see it. If picks plus Scoot plus DAEC equals a superstar, awesome, all for it! I'm skeptical because I see a roster and draft cache with little to offer up.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#64 » by Case2012 » Tue Feb 25, 2025 11:56 pm

I would go full Hinkie, zero Fs. After the fence straddling crap Crolshey has pulled for 13 years, do it. He should have done it last year. Camara is really my only untouchable player. I want 20 draft picks over the next 6 years ala okc and brk. Cronin really could have done that, but he's a moron or the vulcans are, either way they've chosen to be a treadmill team since 2015 when they refused to properly tank to build around Lillard and LMA screwed us by leaving for nothing after saying he would stay.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#65 » by Wizenheimer » Wed Feb 26, 2025 12:37 am

JasonStern wrote:
Drexler was drafted 14th. Roy was drafted 6th. Lillard was drafted 6th. Deni is arguably our best player, and he was drafted 9th. The idea that you have to be the laughing stock of the league and put on an unwatchable product in order to, cross your fingers, not blow a high pick is a fallacy. The 76ers tried this, had the worst record for like 3 seasons, and only ended up with Embiid to show for it.


forget Drexler. It was a completely different era of draft evaluation 40 years ago. And discard Roy as well because he was a bust due to injury

Avdija was drafted 9th and the chances he ever even makes an all-star game are pretty slim, and the chances he can be a #1 option on a contender are zero. Dame was drafted 6th and he never won a conference finals game in Portland. Aldridge was drafted 2nd and as a Blazer he managed to win one game outside of the 1st round

the Celtics won last season and they had two 3rd picks and a 4th pick in their starting lineup. They beat the Mav's who had a 1st pick and a 3rd pick in their starting lineup

the Nuggets won the year before but any team that banks on landing a 3-time MVP in the 2nd round as their template for success will fail for 300 straight years

your argument might have some weight if either of the Blazers' recent #7 picks were flashing elite all-NBA talent as a 1st option. They aren't. Portland's 3rd pick is looking better than last year but it's still debatable if he'll even ascend to all-star level

simply, the Blazers need more rolls of the dice at the top end of the lottery, but they appear to be shooting for the worst kind of mediocrity an NBA team can sink into. With Wemby out, the Blazers will quickly fall behind the Spurs and be 10th in the lottery. And they are only 2 games ahead of Miami and Atlanta. Portland could actually fall to 12th in the lottery as they have clearly signaled they will do whatever it takes to win games the rest of the season

by the way, just before the Blazers went on their little tear winning 10 of 11 games they were 5 games out of 10th seed. After winning that 10 of 11 and going 12-5 over the last 17 games, the Blazers have climbed all the way from 5 games out of 10th seed to 4.5 games out of 10th seed. After a 17 game stretch at a 58 win pace over an 82 game season, they gained exactly 0.5 games on the 10th seed. Yeah, that's sure better than loading up on top draft picks
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#66 » by Walton1one » Wed Feb 26, 2025 6:39 pm

Podcast with Ben Golliver over at Blazers Edge, questioning what POR is doing. Join the club Ben.

I think that you’re learning from this deadline that no one’s really coveting the Blazers players, right? That’s kind of the with the takeaway, because they so obviously should have made the move for the future that the fact that they didn’t says that nobody gave them good offers, and that’s a tough spot to be in. I mean at the very least you feel like you can, you know, sell off a player like Robert Williams, right? Like, what’s going on? What use is he to the Blazers? I don’t get that. Again, these are not going to be huge home run deals, but you’re stuck in the worst part, you know, because they used to call the treadmill of mediocrity where you’re just like, “oh, we’re losing in the first round. We’re losing the first round.” But you’re not even doing that. You’re not bad enough to get the number one pick, right? But you’re not good enough to even compete for a play-in spot, which, you know, it’s a pretty low bar, especially when you’ve got Phoenix playing like they are and when out for the season. So, you’re just in absolute no man’s land.




The model should be MEM & OKC, POR at a massive market disadvantage, need a young, aggressive coach with clear style of play


Amen

Vets are overrated and POR is not going to be able to trade their way into a #6 or #7 seed, going to have to happen thru the draft and they are not taking the steps to prepare themselves to build that way


This is what a lot of people have been saying, but Joe seems to think he knows a better way than what every other team has\is doing or what OKC\MEM (two very good comps for POR by Ben IMO) are doing.

POR has a broken culture and ownership is unaccountable


Yeah, unfortunately, I don't see the malaise that hangs over this franchise disappearing until the stench of Vulcan\Jody\Bert are gone.

POR has incredibly passionate and smart fans, the reason many are tuning out is that they realize this formula is broken


Absolutely correct, hard to watch even for many hardcore fans who post on Blazer boards...

This era is built for parity, this era is designed to build thru the draft, likes Schmitz, smart guy
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#67 » by Case2012 » Wed Feb 26, 2025 9:16 pm

Ben Golliver saying what everyone else in the league is thinking. With absentee ownership there's not really any chance of things turning around. The culture is completely broken and unless the league steps in and forces a sale, we're in no mans land. Even if we luck out and land Flagg or Harper, with this management they're gonna waste their career here.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#68 » by Wizenheimer » Thu Feb 27, 2025 2:39 am

if it walks like a dumpster fire and quacks like a dumpster fire, it's a dumpster fire...aka your Blazers
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#69 » by JasonStern » Thu Feb 27, 2025 8:18 am

Walton1one wrote:INSIDE THE TOP 10
2012 - NO Anthony Davis @ 31, POR Damian Lillard @ #6, Bradley Beal @ #3
2013 - There is no one
2014 - PHI Joel Embid @ #3
2015 - MIN Karl Anthony Towns @ #1, Kristaps Porzingis went #4
2016 - BOS Jaylen Brown @ #3, Brandon Ingram went #2 Jamal Murray went #7
2017 - BOS Jason Tatum @ #3, DeAron Fox went #5, Lauri Markkanen went #7
2018 - DAL Luka Doncic @ #3, Jaren Jackson went #4, Trae Young went #5, Mikael Bridges @ #10
2019 - NO Zion Williamson @ #1, MEM Ja Morant @ #2, Darius Garland went #5
2020 - MIN Anthony Edwards @ #1, LaMelo Ball went #3
2021 - DET Cade Cunningham @ #1, Evan Mobley went #3, Scottie Barnes went #4, Franz Wagner @ #8
2022 - ORL Paolo Banchero #1, OKC Chet Holmgren @ #2
2023 - SA Wembanyama @ #1, CHA Brandon Miller @ #2, Amen Thompson @ #4

OUTSIDE THE TOP 10
2012 - Draymond Green @ #35
2013 - Giannis @ #15, Gobert @ #27
2014 - Zach Lavine @ #13, Nikola Jokic @ #41
2015 - Myles Turner @ #11, Devin Booker @ #13
2016 - Domantas Sabonis @ #11, Pascal Siakam @ #27
2017 - Donavan Mitchell @ #13, Bam Adebayo @ #14
2018 - SGA @ #11, Jalen Brunson @ #33
2019 - none
2020 - Tyrese Haliburton @ #11, Tyrese Maxey @ #21,
2021 - Alperen Sengun @ #16, Jalen Johnson @ #20,
2022 - Jalen Williams @ #12,
2023 - none (yet)


Entirely missing your point. Out of all of those players you mentioned, Boston is the only team that has proven anything - and even that took good moves in trades and free agency, which we have yet to be proven capable of doing at a championship level. And many of those teams have been bad for several years. And many of those top ten players didn't emerge until after years of development. Remember, you're posting this on a board where we have "trade Scoot" and "trade Sharpe" threads. And even the best years you mentioned only have 3-4 players in the top 10 to brag about. And that's including several non-all star, non-all NBA players.

OKC and San Antonio look promising, but still haven't proven anything. "If we didn't win games and try to have a cohesive team developing players, we could have had Kristaps Porzingis over Devin Booker!" That's somehow better and worth watching unwatchable basketball? You literally included a 3x MVP and another MVP in the "outside the top ten pick" list. If that's not proof that, outside of blatantly obvious generational talents, the draft is a crap shoot, I don't know what can convince you.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#70 » by JasonStern » Thu Feb 27, 2025 8:29 am

Wizenheimer wrote:if it walks like a dumpster fire and quacks like a dumpster fire, it's a dumpster fire...aka your Blazers


No. We are just the western conference Chicago Bulls. Not a great place to be, but not a complete dumpster fire. At least we have some young talent to root for. But, sadly, we traded a franchise player away and tanked for multiple seasons to be... here.

That said, the Suns and the Kings seem to have completely stopped caring about playing actual NBA basketball. And, they conveniently play each other as the season closer. I would not be the slightest bit surprised if Durant gets shut down, Sabonis gets shut down, and we somehow stumble into the play-in.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#71 » by JasonStern » Thu Feb 27, 2025 8:31 am

Case2012 wrote:I want 20 draft picks over the next 6 years


(checks the Blazers roster and assets)

And I want Sydney Sweeney. We're both going to be disappointed. Hell, I can't even get Sydney as a GLB.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#72 » by Case2012 » Thu Feb 27, 2025 10:19 am

JasonStern wrote:
Case2012 wrote:I want 20 draft picks over the next 6 years


(checks the Blazers roster and assets)

And I want Sydney Sweeney. We're both going to be disappointed. Hell, I can't even get Sydney as a GLB.


Read on Twitter


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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#73 » by Wizenheimer » Thu Feb 27, 2025 6:18 pm

JasonStern wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:if it walks like a dumpster fire and quacks like a dumpster fire, it's a dumpster fire...aka your Blazers


No. We are just the western conference Chicago Bulls. Not a great place to be, but not a complete dumpster fire. At least we have some young talent to root for. But, sadly, we traded a franchise player away and tanked for multiple seasons to be... here.

That said, the Suns and the Kings seem to have completely stopped caring about playing actual NBA basketball. And, they conveniently play each other as the season closer. I would not be the slightest bit surprised if Durant gets shut down, Sabonis gets shut down, and we somehow stumble into the play-in.


Kings won't tank. If they fall into the lottery they can lose their draft pick. They certainly went all in for the win last night

Suns are a different matter. They don't have their draft pick so there's no reason for them to tank. But they are a dysfunctional mess, so even if they didn't want to tank, they may not have the team that can avoid tanking. They are in a bad way right now

Blazers are still 4.5 games behind the Kings for 10th seed; and Portland's schedule is about to get a lot more difficult. Kings schedule gets difficult too, but they have that cushion

Portland's problem, besides the deficit, are the tiebreakers. Phoenix essentially owns the tiebreaker against Portland already. Dallas own the tiebreaker against Portland. Warriors just have to win one of the remaining games against Portland and they'll own the tiebreaker, and on of those games is at GS. Minny owns the tiebreaker

the only team Portland has a realistic shot of owning the tiebreaker against is Sacramento. Meaning perhaps the biggest game remaining on Portland's schedule is the March 27 games at the Kings. The team that wins that game owns the tiebreaker. So that game is actually worth 2 games in the play-in race. Portland is losing all these tiebreakers because they have such a lousy western conference record compared to the teams they are chasing. They are in too deep a hole to climb out of

that means even though the Blazers are 6 games behind Minny in the standings, they are 7 games behind in the play-in race; 6.5 games behind Warriors; 6 games behind Mavs. To be determined against the Kings

on Jan 9 (my bday), Blazers were 5 games out of 10th seed. Over the next 23 games, Portland went from 5 games out to 4.5 games out. And that was the easiest part of their season schedule. There are now 23 games left in the season, So, over the last 23 games they gained 0.5 games on the 10th seed; over the remaining 23 games they need to gain 5.5 games. Steep hill to climb
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#74 » by Case2012 » Thu Feb 27, 2025 6:55 pm

Of course Wiz is a Cap. No wonder we share such a sunny disposition. I'm a December goat.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#75 » by Walton1one » Thu Feb 27, 2025 6:56 pm

JasonStern wrote:
Wizenheimer wrote:if it walks like a dumpster fire and quacks like a dumpster fire, it's a dumpster fire...aka your Blazers


No. We are just the western conference Chicago Bulls. Not a great place to be, but not a complete dumpster fire. At least we have some young talent to root for. But, sadly, we traded a franchise player away and tanked for multiple seasons to be... here.

That said, the Suns and the Kings seem to have completely stopped caring about playing actual NBA basketball. And, they conveniently play each other as the season closer. I would not be the slightest bit surprised if Durant gets shut down, Sabonis gets shut down, and we somehow stumble into the play-in.


It is a bad place to be & it leads directly to fan apathy. Already the POR ticket office is reaching out asking about re-upping for next year.

I'd trust PHX and (maybe) SAC to be able to tear it down and rebuild back to relevancy before POR gets there under this front office.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#76 » by zzaj » Thu Feb 27, 2025 7:40 pm

Honest question to the Cronin direction believers amongst us:

What do you feel was gained by the 10/11 streak?
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#77 » by Walton1one » Thu Feb 27, 2025 10:33 pm

Either Joe is incompetent and he thinks he can get better value than what he was offered at the trade deadline, which is a debatable opinion at best

OR

He actually views Simons\Ayton\RW3\(maybe)Grant as part of the core pieces of this team moving forward, along with presumably Camara & Deni

Either way, it would explain a lot about his ACTIONS, since we all know you cannot trust a word of what the guy says because he just repeats the same nonsense over and over or has stated one thing and then done the complete opposite

Regardless, IMO it is Cronin's intention to try and trade the 25' pick if it lands outside the Top 4. If they jump into the Top 4, I suspect he will keep it, but right now those odds are 13.9% and about to fall to 9.4% (#11) or 7.2% (#12).

We can argue, correctly, that by tanking he improves POR chance to jump into the top 4, but how far back can they even fall, #6? that is a 37.2% chance, #7 31.9% chance & #8 26.2% chance.

I would argue it is absolutely worth tanking to get insure those percentages, even if the odds don't fall your way, but clearly they do not agree.

So, there is literally no other justification otherwise to let this scenario play out, and the 2025 draft as it is shaping up, appears to have a group of (4) players who look to be a step above the rest: Flagg\Harper\Bailey\Edgecombe.

After that from everything I have read\watched the draft flattens out from there, from #6 to #20 or so. My guess is that Joe thinks he can extract major value by trading that pick away to a team who has a player they value more than other teams or he does.

I think after pick 4 this draft evolves into an eye of beholder draft for the next 15-20 picks

I like Asa Newell for instance, but is assured to be better than Essengue, Murray-Boyles or Fleming?

Is Tre Johnson or Kon Kneuppel better than Ben Saraf or Jase Richardson?

Is Jakucionis, whom I like, guaranteed to be better than Jeremiah Fears, Nolan Traore or Egor Demin?

Is Liam McNeeley, whom I also like, going to be better than Carter Bryant, Will Riley or Hugo Gonzalez?

and then the 2nd part of that equation, do they like any of those players more than the guys they have on their roster, whom we all know they extremely over value. Just harken back to Joe regurgitating stupid advanced stats about Simons clutch play (laughable) or how much they REALLY like this roster. Heck, listen to ANY of Joe's press conferences.

This just leads to the 2nd question of what will he do. If he is going to utilize the 25' draft pick in trade then who is he going to trade it for? MY guess would be a young player just like Deni that could fit with Simons\Ayton\Williams and (potentially) the younger guys like Sharpe\Scoot\Clingan

Simons\Ayton\Grant\Williams are not suddenly going to hold more value this offseason, maybe Cronin has deluded himself into thinking that, but more likely he is going to try and use what little assets he has: 25' pick, 29' (best of) pick and 31' pick to try and get a young player they value.

MAYBE, they shoot for a star player and trade away Sharpe and\or Scoot, (possibly) Clingan to make that happen.

I don't think he throws Simons\Ayton into a deal to get back a young player. I am sure he might offer Grant, but nobody wants that albatross of a contract.

So let's assume that pick is being dealt, as stupid as that sounds, I think that his intention

So the preference would be finding a player that fits the composition of the roster now and fits the timeline of THIS group:

Simons 25\Camara 24\Deni 24\Ayton 26, possibly Williams 27 and probably Grant b\c they can't unload him for what Joe feel's he is worth. Surprisingly, if this is the case, it might begin to make sense why they have held onto Thybulle 27, as he too fits the timeline\composition of the roster

That leaves: Clingan, Sharpe & Scoot, as either part of the roster or trade fodder to get a certain player that Joe desires. I imagine 1 or 2 of them may be dealt.

It was always a retool people, not a rebuild. I think if this happens it will be a failure\complete waste of time and a losing endeavor, but hey that will be for the next ownership\GM to clean up

Who could that player be then? What players would fit that profile? Well, I would imagine that Cronin would lean on Schmitz to provide that, as he did with the Deni trade and Clingan pick. So, if this scenario is possible (and IMO it is certainly looking more and more likely), then what players would they (or are already) pursue like they Deni?

So I went and looked back on articles\interviews etc.., that Schmitz has done to get an idea of what players it seemed he was high on. Now, some of these guys I doubt are available (Jalen Williams, Sengun) or the player or team would not have any desire (Ja Morant) to come here, but there are some other names and some quotes I found by Schmitz to be enlightening.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#78 » by Walton1one » Thu Feb 27, 2025 11:18 pm

Besides an interest in the player from POR perspective, I think it is important to factor, is that player even available? and if they are, what reason would they be available.

Could a guy like Devin Booker (28) work if PHX does in fact blow it up this season? It could work, but I debate whther Booker would want to come here (I doubt it) or if Joe would rather get a younger player on a better contract. Booker is paid thru the 27/28 season - The next (3) years? $53\$57\$61 million I think the cost (acquisition) and salary may be a little too rich for POR

Interestingly, HOU has PHX 27', PHX 29' via (2) most favorable b\t PHX\DAL\HOU and swap rights in 27' with BRK on their pick. Sure looks like a Durant to HOU deal could be brewing this summer, and if they do that would they pivot around Booker, or offload him as well for assets? My guess would be the latter and POR could overpay to get him (Sharpe, 25/29(best)/31 1st + ?), add that to picks back from HOU and a young player or two and PHX would be well positioned into a rebuild.

But I don't think it would be Booker

Here is a breakdown of some players Schmitz spoke glowingly about that could fit the profile. I am sure I am missing a few, and I will add if I find more, but a couple COULD make sense if Cronin does cash his chips in (picks, young players). These are the ones that stood out to me the most.

Tyrese Haliburton - 24
RJ Barrett - 24
Zion Williamson - 24

RJ Barrett
Schmitz viewed him as a future star, "Potential to be one of the most dynamic scorers in the NBA"

https://www.espn.co.uk/video/clip/_/id/26949424

Schmitz: While I won't go so far as to say Barrett should be in the conversation for No. 2 overall, anyone who doesn't see him as the third-best prospect is wildly overthinking this...On top of that, I love Barrett's productivity, confidence and winning mentality, and I do believe he's being slept on as a potential All-Star regular. But I personally see Morant as the more special talent. Barrett doesn't have the same off-the-dribble, shot-making prowess of those aforementioned stars...


I think RJ versus Ja is certainly a conversation. Personally, I think Ja has a little bit more upside just in terms of his explosiveness combined with his feel for the game. RJ is going to be a really, really good player. I think he’s going to be an all-star caliber player.


Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton has been arguably the NBA's best rookie so far and he showed exactly why last night against Denver. His basketball instincts are off the charts. More on his background and why I considered him a top-5 prospect leading up to the 2020 draft


While he might not be a shifty shot-creator or a run-and-jump athlete, there's a case that he's closer to a top-three player in this class than a mid-lottery selection.


Sure, he will never be as powerful as Georgia's Anthony Edwards or as creative as LaMelo Ball, but based on what he showed at Impact, he's stronger and starting to look more comfortable shooting off the dribble when under duress. Overanalyzing Haliburton's unorthodox game could lead scouts to miss some of the factors that make him such an impactful player on and off the court.


"If we're talking about who is the best all-around basketball player, just top to bottom, who has the fewest weaknesses in this draft? To me, it's Tyrese Haliburton," Schmitz told Van Pelt. "He can shoot it, he can pass out of the pick and roll, he can pass in transition. He can defend off the ball with the best of them. He's a brilliant basketball mind."


So to me, this is a kid that checks pretty much every box. He impacts the game all over the floor. He reminds me a bit of what we hoped Lonzo Ball would be coming out of UCLA. Now he's a better shooter, he's got a little bit more personality to his game. But as I'm looking at the top of this draft and I'm looking at guys who have a lot of question marks, I left that Vegas trip watching Tyrese Haliburton thinking, man, maybe we need to think about this kid a little higher in this draft because he checks pretty much every box."


Zion Williamson
Called him the best NBA prospect since Anthony Davis. Could he see him playing the 5 to close out games. Called him a point center

I think Zion is the best player and the best prospect in this draft. He’s kind of the epitome of positionless basketball in this new era that we’re seeing... It’s going to be important for Zion’s body to hold up, there’s no question about that.


Health permitting, I'm confident that Zion will be an MVP candidate and viewed as one of the best players in the league.


I've always thought Williamson's playmaking ability is one of the underrated aspects of his game. As he taps more and more into that vision and has better spacing around him, I think he can develop into a shot-creator and an occasional triple-double threat down the line. Far and away the most unique prospect I've evaluated, Williamson has no ceiling if he can improve his shooting and stay healthy.


https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/26949061

Here is a wildcard, that I did not know Schmitz liked so much. Schmitz sure seems to like Daniels a LOT, could POR chase him, maybe, is he a star though, IMO no, but maybe they think he can be or that they think they have one already in Simons\Ayton?

Dyson Daniels (his brother is a projected lotto pick in 26' BTW)

Such an impressive prospect both on and off the court. Now up to 6-7 barefoot with very few holes in his game on both ends.


“Dyson Daniels, remember the name,” Schmitz told ESPN’s ‘NBA Today’ on Tuesday.


“He is incredibly impressive on both ends of the floor. I think he is one of the most complete prospects. He’s 6’8 in shoes with a 6’11 wingspan, defends multiple positions, can play 1-through-4 and then the IQ, the vision.


“He plays that unselfish style and can see over the top in the half-court offensively. He is a big guard.”


He brings a rare combination of discipline, awareness and intensity on and off the ball that you rarely see from 19-year-olds, consistently fighting over screens, denying off the ball and mirroring smaller players with quick hip turns and excellent feet.


He's not a high-level shot creator at this stage but has a lot of the same tricks similar players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton did at the same stage with the way they manipulate defenses with savvy and pace, seeing over the top of defenses thanks to their excellent size.


While Daniels' numbers don't jump off the page and there are some things to question regarding his at-times-robotic style of play and lack of shiftiness with the ball, this type of multipositional wing who can slide between point guard and power forward seamlessly, and is brimming with versatility and basketball instincts, is very difficult to come by in today's NBA.


As a bonus, wonder why POR liked Kris Murray so much? Schmitz loved his twin brother

Keegan Murray

Murray reminds me in some ways of a forward version of Tyrese Haliburton. Some will question his NBA upside because he doesn't have the type of game that pops in a mixtape, but he has incredible touch, stellar all-around instincts and the type of basketball nervous system that lends itself to success. Murray isn't your typical 21-year-old prospect whom some executives might view as having a high floor, but his ability to consistently improve and stay even-keel in times of turmoil or success gives him a higher upside than his age and simple game might suggest on the surface.


Reminded yet again that Keegan Murray should be considered an elite prospect. Productive, plays a coveted position, severely underrated as a creator. Most complete player in this class.


Schmitz wrote that Murray plays "one of the most coveted positions in the NBA," praising his ability to play as a "jumbo small forward, modern 4, and small-ball 5."


While he wouldn't put him ahead of Smith Jr., Schmitz thinks the gap between the two players isn't as vast as one may presume.

"You could make the argument that (Murray) is nearly as versatile of a shooter (as Smith Jr.) while impacting the game in a few more areas given his ability to put pressure on the rim, rebound and make plays off the ball defensively."


He also wrote that Murray could fit seamlessly in Portland alongside guards Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons.


Note what all these players share in common? Positionless players can bounce b\t 2-3-4 or 3-4-5, sounds familiar to Camara & Deni

Scout on Bryce McGowans, whom POR picked up on a 2-way this year...

When McGowens gets going, it's easy to compare him to guards like Dejounte Murray of the San Antonio Spurs and Bones Hyland of the Denver Nuggets. He shoots it from well beyond the NBA line like Hyland, mixing in step-backs and hesitations to get into his pull-up. He's also capable of playing off hang dribbles to get into the paint, striding into slow-down floaters, unraveling his 6-9 wingspan into finesse finishes with either hand.


If McGowens can prove he's a better shooter than his 25% 3-point clip suggests (81% on free throws), take better shots, flash some semblance of point guard potential and show he's a willing defender, he'll have no shortage of suitors, even in the lottery. If the struggles against top-tier teams continue, his naysayers will view him as a volume scorer who needs time before he can help an NBA team. -- Mike Schmitz


Also, Sidy Cissiko, now on a 2-way as well

One of the most talented prospects I saw abroad: French guard Sidy Cissoko. Powerful at 6-6 with long arms, the 17-year-old Baskonia product can get his own or create for others. Needs to improve defense, decision making + body language, but lots to like.


French-Senegalese guard Sidy Cissoko is the most talented of the bunch, standing 6-6 with long arms, big hands, a strong 196-pound frame and the ability to create offense for both himself and his teammates. He's a powerful downhill driver who has already finished several poster dunks this season, while also showcasing impressive shot-making potential despite his 29% 3-point clip. Although he can make most pick-and-roll reads when he's going right, Cissoko -- who plays point guard full time for Iraurgi in Spain's second division -- needs to improve his decision-making and handle to play on the ball full time at the highest level. His defensive energy and body language also need major work, and making strides in those areas will be crucial for him to maximize his potential as a top-10 pick. The 17-year-old is under contract with Baskonia in the Basque Region and could earn minutes in the ACB next season.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#79 » by Walton1one » Thu Feb 27, 2025 11:29 pm

A couple of other intersting excerpts I saw on some players, which if you see them end up in POR, this certainly could be part of the reason why.

Bol Bol

Yeah, he’s one of these risk/reward guys. I think, like some of the guys you mentioned, he’s very unique in terms of his length and his skill set, but you know, he can really shoot the ball. I think that’s the thing that is going to help him kind of stay afloat as he gets stronger, as he improves his motor. It’s just that he’s so skilled on the perimeter. And even more so than some of the guys you mentioned, like he can take a defensive rebound and push off the glass and go create some offense.


So my biggest question with him is just his durability with that high center of gravity and thin frame, and how is he going to be able to make it through an 82-game season?


Bol Bol has a really high upside with a guy who obviously has incredible length. He moves well, he can shoot threes, he can block shots, and he can handle the ball. So that’s a really unique combination. He’s had some injuries, and he’s not the most durable guy. He needs to improve his motor, no question. I think that’s the only reason why he’s even considered in Miami’s range because, if it’s based on sheer talent alone, he’s probably a top five pick.


DaQuan Jeffries

And then there’s a kid out of Tulsa who’s had a really good run, DaQuan Jeffries, maybe a mid to late second round guy, but long arms, 6’5″, kind of a three and D wing prospect.


Marjon Beauchamp

Energetic two-way wing who impacts the game without needing any plays called for him. Love his activity. Improving perimeter shooter.


Onyeka Okongwu

Has a chance to be the best big man coming out of the 2020 draft, ridiculous efficiency and productivity. Defensive versatility stands out the most...lot of similarities to Bam Adebayo


Read on Twitter


Wiseman might be the more intriguing talent, but a deep dive into Okongwu's film, numbers and approach suggests that he could very well end up having more impact than any other big man in his class.


Also, was a big fan of Jalen Williams & Alperen Sengun (no, I do not think either are available)

Jalen Williams

Great to check in on 21-year-old Santa Clara star Jalen Williams earlier this week. Easy to see him generating substantial 1st round buzz during the pre-draft process. Super skilled in PnR w/ a 7-2 wingspan and defensive versatility. Averaged 18-4-4 on 55% from 2 and 40% from 3.


Really enjoyed breaking down film with Jalen Williams. Impressive feel for the game with a really unique trajectory. Undersized PG in high school. Was only 6-3 when he arrived at Santa Clara. Now one of the biggest sleepers in the draft at 6-6 with length and a refined skill set.


Alperen Sengun

Sengun is also a physical roller with some of the best hands I've ever seen from an 18-year-old. He catches everything thrown his way, isn't afraid to try to dunk on bigs at the rim and has the short roll touch shots necessary to neutralize NBA shot-blockers...Creative teams could opt to experiment with him as a mini-Jokic off the bench, playing through him in the post once he becomes comfortable on an NBA floor...But the fact that Sengun isn't afraid to take risks bodes well for his upside as a passer, and his court vision is strong enough for him to potentially reach Sabonis' level as a facilitator in the right situation.
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Re: 2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do? 

Post#80 » by tester551 » Fri Feb 28, 2025 12:52 am

Walton1one wrote:Besides an interest in the player from POR perspective, I think it is important to factor, is that player even available? and if they are, what reason would they be available.

Could a guy like Devin Booker (28) work if PHX does in fact blow it up this season? It could work, but I debate whther Booker would want to come here (I doubt it) or if Joe would rather get a younger player on a better contract. Booker is paid thru the 27/28 season - The next (3) years? $53\$57\$61 million I think the cost (acquisition) and salary may be a little too rich for POR

Interestingly, HOU has PHX 27', PHX 29' via (2) most favorable b\t PHX\DAL\HOU and swap rights in 27' with BRK on their pick. Sure looks like a Durant to HOU deal could be brewing this summer, and if they do that would they pivot around Booker, or offload him as well for assets? My guess would be the latter and POR could overpay to get him (Sharpe, 25/29(best)/31 1st + ?), add that to picks back from HOU and a young player or two and PHX would be well positioned into a rebuild.

But I don't think it would be Booker

Here is a breakdown of some players Schmitz spoke glowingly about that could fit the profile. I am sure I am missing a few, and I will add if I find more, but a couple COULD make sense if Cronin does cash his chips in (picks, young players). These are the ones that stood out to me the most.

Tyrese Haliburton - 24
RJ Barrett - 24
Zion Williamson - 24

RJ Barrett
Schmitz viewed him as a future star, "Potential to be one of the most dynamic scorers in the NBA"

https://www.espn.co.uk/video/clip/_/id/26949424

Schmitz: While I won't go so far as to say Barrett should be in the conversation for No. 2 overall, anyone who doesn't see him as the third-best prospect is wildly overthinking this...On top of that, I love Barrett's productivity, confidence and winning mentality, and I do believe he's being slept on as a potential All-Star regular. But I personally see Morant as the more special talent. Barrett doesn't have the same off-the-dribble, shot-making prowess of those aforementioned stars...


I think RJ versus Ja is certainly a conversation. Personally, I think Ja has a little bit more upside just in terms of his explosiveness combined with his feel for the game. RJ is going to be a really, really good player. I think he’s going to be an all-star caliber player.


Tyrese Haliburton

Tyrese Haliburton has been arguably the NBA's best rookie so far and he showed exactly why last night against Denver. His basketball instincts are off the charts. More on his background and why I considered him a top-5 prospect leading up to the 2020 draft


While he might not be a shifty shot-creator or a run-and-jump athlete, there's a case that he's closer to a top-three player in this class than a mid-lottery selection.


Sure, he will never be as powerful as Georgia's Anthony Edwards or as creative as LaMelo Ball, but based on what he showed at Impact, he's stronger and starting to look more comfortable shooting off the dribble when under duress. Overanalyzing Haliburton's unorthodox game could lead scouts to miss some of the factors that make him such an impactful player on and off the court.


"If we're talking about who is the best all-around basketball player, just top to bottom, who has the fewest weaknesses in this draft? To me, it's Tyrese Haliburton," Schmitz told Van Pelt. "He can shoot it, he can pass out of the pick and roll, he can pass in transition. He can defend off the ball with the best of them. He's a brilliant basketball mind."


So to me, this is a kid that checks pretty much every box. He impacts the game all over the floor. He reminds me a bit of what we hoped Lonzo Ball would be coming out of UCLA. Now he's a better shooter, he's got a little bit more personality to his game. But as I'm looking at the top of this draft and I'm looking at guys who have a lot of question marks, I left that Vegas trip watching Tyrese Haliburton thinking, man, maybe we need to think about this kid a little higher in this draft because he checks pretty much every box."


Zion Williamson
Called him the best NBA prospect since Anthony Davis. Could he see him playing the 5 to close out games. Called him a point center

I think Zion is the best player and the best prospect in this draft. He’s kind of the epitome of positionless basketball in this new era that we’re seeing... It’s going to be important for Zion’s body to hold up, there’s no question about that.


Health permitting, I'm confident that Zion will be an MVP candidate and viewed as one of the best players in the league.


I've always thought Williamson's playmaking ability is one of the underrated aspects of his game. As he taps more and more into that vision and has better spacing around him, I think he can develop into a shot-creator and an occasional triple-double threat down the line. Far and away the most unique prospect I've evaluated, Williamson has no ceiling if he can improve his shooting and stay healthy.


https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/26949061

Here is a wildcard, that I did not know Schmitz liked so much. Schmitz sure seems to like Daniels a LOT, could POR chase him, maybe, is he a star though, IMO no, but maybe they think he can be or that they think they have one already in Simons\Ayton?

Dyson Daniels (his brother is a projected lotto pick in 26' BTW)

Such an impressive prospect both on and off the court. Now up to 6-7 barefoot with very few holes in his game on both ends.


“Dyson Daniels, remember the name,” Schmitz told ESPN’s ‘NBA Today’ on Tuesday.


“He is incredibly impressive on both ends of the floor. I think he is one of the most complete prospects. He’s 6’8 in shoes with a 6’11 wingspan, defends multiple positions, can play 1-through-4 and then the IQ, the vision.


“He plays that unselfish style and can see over the top in the half-court offensively. He is a big guard.”


He brings a rare combination of discipline, awareness and intensity on and off the ball that you rarely see from 19-year-olds, consistently fighting over screens, denying off the ball and mirroring smaller players with quick hip turns and excellent feet.


He's not a high-level shot creator at this stage but has a lot of the same tricks similar players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton did at the same stage with the way they manipulate defenses with savvy and pace, seeing over the top of defenses thanks to their excellent size.


While Daniels' numbers don't jump off the page and there are some things to question regarding his at-times-robotic style of play and lack of shiftiness with the ball, this type of multipositional wing who can slide between point guard and power forward seamlessly, and is brimming with versatility and basketball instincts, is very difficult to come by in today's NBA.


As a bonus, wonder why POR liked Kris Murray so much? Schmitz loved his twin brother

Keegan Murray

Murray reminds me in some ways of a forward version of Tyrese Haliburton. Some will question his NBA upside because he doesn't have the type of game that pops in a mixtape, but he has incredible touch, stellar all-around instincts and the type of basketball nervous system that lends itself to success. Murray isn't your typical 21-year-old prospect whom some executives might view as having a high floor, but his ability to consistently improve and stay even-keel in times of turmoil or success gives him a higher upside than his age and simple game might suggest on the surface.


Reminded yet again that Keegan Murray should be considered an elite prospect. Productive, plays a coveted position, severely underrated as a creator. Most complete player in this class.


Schmitz wrote that Murray plays "one of the most coveted positions in the NBA," praising his ability to play as a "jumbo small forward, modern 4, and small-ball 5."


While he wouldn't put him ahead of Smith Jr., Schmitz thinks the gap between the two players isn't as vast as one may presume.

"You could make the argument that (Murray) is nearly as versatile of a shooter (as Smith Jr.) while impacting the game in a few more areas given his ability to put pressure on the rim, rebound and make plays off the ball defensively."


He also wrote that Murray could fit seamlessly in Portland alongside guards Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons.


Note what all these players share in common? Positionless players can bounce b\t 2-3-4 or 3-4-5, sounds familiar to Camara & Deni

Scout on Bryce McGowans, whom POR picked up on a 2-way this year...

When McGowens gets going, it's easy to compare him to guards like Dejounte Murray of the San Antonio Spurs and Bones Hyland of the Denver Nuggets. He shoots it from well beyond the NBA line like Hyland, mixing in step-backs and hesitations to get into his pull-up. He's also capable of playing off hang dribbles to get into the paint, striding into slow-down floaters, unraveling his 6-9 wingspan into finesse finishes with either hand.


If McGowens can prove he's a better shooter than his 25% 3-point clip suggests (81% on free throws), take better shots, flash some semblance of point guard potential and show he's a willing defender, he'll have no shortage of suitors, even in the lottery. If the struggles against top-tier teams continue, his naysayers will view him as a volume scorer who needs time before he can help an NBA team. -- Mike Schmitz


Also, Sidy Cissiko, now on a 2-way as well

One of the most talented prospects I saw abroad: French guard Sidy Cissoko. Powerful at 6-6 with long arms, the 17-year-old Baskonia product can get his own or create for others. Needs to improve defense, decision making + body language, but lots to like.


French-Senegalese guard Sidy Cissoko is the most talented of the bunch, standing 6-6 with long arms, big hands, a strong 196-pound frame and the ability to create offense for both himself and his teammates. He's a powerful downhill driver who has already finished several poster dunks this season, while also showcasing impressive shot-making potential despite his 29% 3-point clip. Although he can make most pick-and-roll reads when he's going right, Cissoko -- who plays point guard full time for Iraurgi in Spain's second division -- needs to improve his decision-making and handle to play on the ball full time at the highest level. His defensive energy and body language also need major work, and making strides in those areas will be crucial for him to maximize his potential as a top-10 pick. The 17-year-old is under contract with Baskonia in the Basque Region and could earn minutes in the ACB next season.

To be fair, Schmitz hardly ever talked negative about a player. In almost every evaluation, he talked about all the 'good stuff' about the player.
When he ran out of the positives, he'd give 1 or maybe 2 minor weaknesses & then stop talking.

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