Should Blazers trade their 2025 pick of outside of the top 4?

[dckingsfan]

Historically speaking, you have about a 15% chance of drafting an all-star with the #10 pick. So why not go after a player that you already know is an all-star? Package the pick and Sharpe for Devin Booker or Sabonis.

How would you see the Booker trade happen? What would we send and what would we receive. Why would Phoenix do the trade?

How would you see the Sabonis trade happen? What would we send and what would we receive. Why would Sac do the trade?

I am genuinely intrigued to see if someone has come up with an offer that Phoenix or Sac would accept without berefting the Blazers of draft picks for the future.

[Walton1one]

You could do it, POR has the salaries (Ayton, Grant, Simons, combo of Thybulle & RW3 to make it happen)

Simons\Williams (or Thybulle)\Sharpe + picks for Booker is in the range

But PHX is just not trading Booker, I would be surprised after their owner came out and said it would not happen, or after Booker's comments about wanting to stay. Now Durant, he will likely be moved, they will retool around Booker.

Never mind that there are plenty of rival executives who would advise Ishbia and the Suns to consider listening to offers, specifically from the Houston Rockets, who control a significant chunk of Phoenix's future first-round capital (2025 swap rights, 2027 and 2029 picks, all unprotected) via a deal with the Brooklyn Nets. Sources have told ESPN that the Rockets have repeatedly expressed interest in Booker, a 28-year-old star who fits Houston's timeline, and that those conversations have been brief.

"Never happen," Ishbia said, interrupting the question. "It's silly. So here's what I'll tell you: I have Devin Booker in the prime. In order to win an NBA championship, you got to have a superstar. You got to have a great player."

Nor will Booker request a trade, regardless of how the Suns finish this season. Booker says he is fully committed to spending his entire career in Phoenix, sharing that vision with Ishbia and the Suns' lead executives, CEO Josh Bartelstein and general manager James Jones.

That Ishbia quote is something Cronin should take more seriously, to win you need a superstar. What a concept

[Walton1one]

Sabonis could work too, but again what is the fit? I assume you are trading out DC and other young pieces? Sabonis is 28, so he fits more with Ayton\Simons\Grant\ than he does with Scoot\Sharpe. Camara\Deni\Williams could fit either timeline

The other problem is if SAC trades away Sabonis then what do they do?

LaVine (29) has 3 more years
DeRozan (35) has 3 more years
Monk (27) 4 more years
You are talking a complete tear down, meaning a commitment to offload all those guys. Seems like a stretch to me

You need a big salary to match Sabonis, meaning Ayton (most likely) or Simons + Williams\Thybulle, then + whatever young player\s & picks

Ayton\DC + picks could be a framework or POR takes on more salary and sends back more expiring and takes back a Valanciunas or Derozan back

Ayton\Thybulle\DC for Sabonis\Valanciunas - How many picks to make up the deficit here? 2? 3? Have to believe other teams could do better AND we are not even talking about the fit of a Camara\Deni\Sabonis frontline, do they work together? Simons & Grant in the backcourt (or Camara), Scoot & Sharpe still coming off the bench, how long will they put up with that?

[dckingsfan]

So, you don't see the trades happening and you don't see a way forward. I didn't either but wanted to see if the OP had ideas on the matter...

[Walton1one]

So, you don't see the trades happening and you don't see a way forward. I didn't either but wanted to see if the OP had ideas on the matter...

I don't, not in those two deals, but Cronin could\might? feel different.

I just don't think PHX will trade Booker and SAC trading Sabonis (and there have been rumblings that Sabonis wants to know the path forward, kind of like Dame did) seems a stretch this offseason, b\c their roster composition is more in the present and to pivot to full rebuild seems unlikely to me? and again, the fit for POR is not ideal.

Could SAC\Sabonis deal happen? It could be possible, but PHX\Booker deal is a non starter IMO

[dckingsfan]

So, you don't see the trades happening and you don't see a way forward. I didn't either but wanted to see if the OP had ideas on the matter...

I don't, not in those two deals, but Cronin could\might? feel different.

I just don't think PHX will trade Booker and SAC trading Sabonis (and there have been rumblings that Sabonis wants to know the path forward, kind of like Dame did) seems a stretch this offseason, b\c their roster composition is more in the present and to pivot to full rebuild seems unlikely to me? and again, the fit for POR is not ideal.

Could SAC\Sabonis deal happen? It could be possible, but PHX\Booker deal is a non starter IMO

This.

I would think Sac would want a lot for Sabonis. Right now they are going to run back:

Monk/Carter
LaVine/Ellis
DeRozan
Murray/LaRavia
Sabonis/Valančiūnas

Not horrible but not going anywhere either. And that group is going to be together for two more seasons as the contracts are constructed. I mean, they are in "nearly" as bad a place as Phoenix sans Beal. They are kind of like the Blazers in that way.

EXCEPT. The Blazers could be smart and not resign Ayton and Simons.

One thing that would be interesting is if Sabonis wanted to come to Portland - but that is a bit of a long-shot.

[Sinobas]

Historically speaking, you have about a 15% chance of drafting an all-star with the #10 pick. So why not go after a player that you already know is an all-star? Package the pick and Sharpe for Devin Booker or Sabonis.

because the other team(s) won't cooperate with the plan?

besides that:

Booker + Durant + Beal + Allen + O'Neal haven't even been able to make the Suns a 10th seed

Sabonis + Fox/LaVine + Derozan + Monk + Murray have only been able to elevate the Kings to the 9th seed

neither of those guys moves a needle much because neither is a contending-level 1st option. They would just be treadmill additions for Portland

"Let's not try to do something because it might not happen." What dumb logic. You're usually one of the brightest posters on the board.

Followed up by more dumb logic, Sabonis or Booker wouldn't take this team to another level because their current teams aren't playing well? We'd have two stars (with Deni) two good defensive role players (Camara/Clingan), and Scoot who could also develop into a really good PG.

It's fine if you don't think they'd make us "contenders" but chance we'll draft a player that's better is very, very slim. Buck Williams was the missing piece turned the 1989 Blazers into contenders, so you never know.

[Sinobas]

Historically speaking, you have about a 15% chance of drafting an all-star with the #10 pick. So why not go after a player that you already know is an all-star? Package the pick and Sharpe for Devin Booker or Sabonis.

How would you see the Booker trade happen? What would we send and what would we receive. Why would Phoenix do the trade?

How would you see the Sabonis trade happen? What would we send and what would we receive. Why would Sac do the trade?

I am genuinely intrigued to see if someone has come up with an offer that Phoenix or Sac would accept without berefting the Blazers of draft picks for the future.

Let's skip the charade. To whatever I say you'll reply "But they'd neeeeever do that".

Yet it seems whenever a star actually is traded people are often surprised at how little it took. We just got Deni for 2 draft picks.

[Wizenheimer]

Historically speaking, you have about a 15% chance of drafting an all-star with the #10 pick. So why not go after a player that you already know is an all-star? Package the pick and Sharpe for Devin Booker or Sabonis.

because the other team(s) won't cooperate with the plan?

besides that:

Booker + Durant + Beal + Allen + O'Neal haven't even been able to make the Suns a 10th seed

Sabonis + Fox/LaVine + Derozan + Monk + Murray have only been able to elevate the Kings to the 9th seed

neither of those guys moves a needle much because neither is a contending-level 1st option. They would just be treadmill additions for Portland

"Let's not try to do something because it might not happen." What dumb logic. You're usually one of the brightest posters on the board.

Followed up by more dumb logic, Sabonis or Booker wouldn't take this team to another level because their current teams aren't playing well? We'd have two stars (with Deni) two good defensive role players (Camara/Clingan), and Scoot who could also develop into a really good PG.

It's fine if you don't think they'd make us "contenders" but chance we'll draft a player that's better is very, very slim. Buck Williams was the missing piece turned the 1989 Blazers into contenders, so you never know.

wut?

what even makes you think Booker or Sabonis will be available?

[DusterBuster]

Booker will not be available.

Sabas might, but only if he demands a trade. Some rumblings there, but too early to tell.

Regardless, no one here has much apatite for a major splash trade… the pick likely won’t even be Top 10 at this rate. Moving down makes very little sense. Might as well just make the pick and call it an evening. Maybe move Simons if you can, but genuinely just expecting another quiet offseason and this team just being run back… again. Chauncey probably back too, and Blazers somewhere in a mid-30 win season again next year.

[Case2012]

It's gonna be Zion or Trae or both. It depends on if they get their pick back from Chicago. Cronin is so dumb, he's gonna try and trot out Trae,Simons,Camara,Zion,and Ayton or something. Or Scoot, Camara, Deni, Zion, Ayton. It'd probably be Sharpe, Grant and RW plus 3 picks for Zion. Or Scoot and Clingan, plus 3 picks for Trae. It's gonna be terrible no matter what it is and more than what Mil paid for Dame.

[Sinobas]

Booker will not be available.

Sabas might, but only if he demands a trade. Some rumblings there, but too early to tell.

Regardless, no one here has much apatite for a major splash trade… the pick likely won’t even be Top 10 at this rate. Moving down makes very little sense. Might as well just make the pick and call it an evening. Maybe move Simons if you can, but genuinely just expecting another quiet offseason and this team just being run back… again. Chauncey probably back too, and Blazers somewhere in a mid-30 win season again next year.

Why don't you have the appetite to make a move like we made to acquire Deni, when you seem to believe (probably rightly so), that keeping the pick will lead to another mediocre season?

We have better chips this year. Our 1st, expirings, Sharpe. Make a bold move. I'm not saying one will necessarily be out there, I'm saying look.

[BlazersBroncos]

It's gonna be Zion or Trae or both. It depends on if they get their pick back from Chicago. Cronin is so dumb, he's gonna try and trot out Trae,Simons,Camara,Zion,and Ayton or something. Or Scoot, Camara, Deni, Zion, Ayton. It'd probably be Sharpe, Grant and RW plus 3 picks for Zion. Or Scoot and Clingan, plus 3 picks for Trae. It's gonna be terrible no matter what it is and more than what Mil paid for Dame.

I understand the pessimism due to our inability or general lack of urgency to move off the vets but Cronin also was able to steal Camara in the Dame trade and pulled the trigger on Deni who, of late, has looked like a legit - even high tier - 3rd option.

That being said - I wonder if we get in on the Durant sweepstakes.

Simons + Grant + RWIII + 2025 FRP for Durant + Martin.

Bonus is moving off Grant's deal.

G - Scoot Henderson / MLE or BAE
G - Toumari Camara / Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Thybulle
F - Kevin Durant / Shadeon Sharpe / Matisse Tybulle
F - Deni Avdija / Kevin Durant / Cody Martin
C - DeAndre Ayton / Donovan Clingan / Duop Reath

That might make some noise - especially if the kids continue to develop. Druant brings the go-to scoring we need. I assume the cost would be one of Camara or Deni though - and that makes me out on adding KD.

[dckingsfan]

Historically speaking, you have about a 15% chance of drafting an all-star with the #10 pick. So why not go after a player that you already know is an all-star? Package the pick and Sharpe for Devin Booker or Sabonis.

How would you see the Booker trade happen? What would we send and what would we receive. Why would Phoenix do the trade?

How would you see the Sabonis trade happen? What would we send and what would we receive. Why would Sac do the trade?

I am genuinely intrigued to see if someone has come up with an offer that Phoenix or Sac would accept without berefting the Blazers of draft picks for the future.

Let's skip the charade. To whatever I say you'll reply "But they'd neeeeever do that".

Yet it seems whenever a star actually is traded people are often surprised at how little it took. We just got Deni for 2 draft picks.

Sorry, there was no charade. I don't dismiss the idea especially after the Dallas/LA trade.

If there was a way to trade for Sabonis that didn't "kill us" going forward, I would think we would jump on it. I just don't know.

I think there is a difference between Deni (Washington thought they got the better of the deal and wanted to ensure they had the worst record for this year's draft) and Sabonis and Sac's current position.

But maybe there is another team that is looking to do something similar and would be willing to dump a really good player for expiring contracts?

[dckingsfan]

...we are not even talking about the fit of a Camara\Deni\Sabonis frontline, do they work together?

Scoot, Deni, Grant, Camara, Sabonis would work well together both on the offensive end and the defensive end.

I don't really have any questions on that. Sabonis is a great initiator on the offensive end he would make Scoot and Deni look great. And Grant and Camara would get so many open 3s it would be ridiculous.

On the defensive end, having Deni and Camara as your defensive wing stoppers and a guy that can rebound like Sabonis would be really good.

[Walton1one]

No to Durant, he will be 37 next year That would be incredibly shortsighted. How many years do you think he has left? 2? POR is not winning a title in 2 years even with Durant. He is the type of player a team gets to put them over the top, not the player a team gets to get them to a play in

Also, they are not getting both Trae & Zion, come on now, and chances are they get neither as Wiz stated a few posts ago, b\c Cronin has shown himself to be risk adverse and both of those acquisitions would be very risky (and costly)

What is much more likely to happen is for him to roll out the same tired lineup that he has this year, with the same lame coach (Billups) and expect better results, which is a 50\50 proposition at best

Way too many fans being fooled by this team right now:

- SA will be good next year, with a full year of Wemby + Fox + 2nd year of Castle (likely ROY) + (2) 1st round picks (or whatever they do with them) - They are a better team than POR in every way

- DAL will be much better next year, if Irving resigns (likely) they have AD, Klay, a lottery pick, and several defensive bigs\wings in Gafford\Lively & Washington...when healthy, they are a better team

- NO, if Zion can stay healthy (which is why in no way should POR trade for him, unless you want to hoping on that year after year), Murphy, Jones, Missi, they still have CJ and they get Murray sometime during the year, oh yeah and a likely top 5 draft pick to add. They are certainly at worst on even ground with POR

- PHX will retool into something TBD (sans Durant), they have Booker who is legit and the corpse of what was Bradley Beal, they are a wildcard, could be worse than POR, but easily could be in the same boat (fighting for a play in) as POR is

GSW will still be good, even with Curry, Draymond & Butler a year older, and GSW has Kuminga as well

as will LAC, LAL & DEN

What do all these teams share? Oh, I know legit All-Star players, of which POR has......none

[BlazersBroncos]

No to Durant, he will be 37 next year That would be incredibly shortsighted. How many years do you think he has left? 2? POR is not winning a title in 2 years even with Durant. He is the type of player a team gets to put them over the top, not the player a team gets to get them to a play in

I dont necessarily like it - but there are some upsides. Yes we burn our late lotto pick, but we also are basically only moving non-long term players. And with Grant, we get off 2 full years of his contract by moving him for KD who expires summer 2026.

That would put us in a spot come 2026 where we have basically no long term money on the books. If the team gells in 25/26 - we could be looking at some serious cap space and potentially a old Kevin Durant willing to take a team friendly deal to stay.

The money on our books come summer 2026 would be -

Scoot Henderson 13.58M
Deni Avdija 13.12M
Shadeon Sharpe 11.26M (QO)
Donovan Clingan 7.52M
Toumani Camara 2.4M
2026 PDX FRP

If KD works - we could actually be an attractive destination for some FA (Or for a trade into out cap space)
If KD doesnt work - we are in a spot to take on bad money for assets.

Cap for 25/26 is projected at 155M. So summer 26 that should be even higher. We would have about 48M committed (+ 2026 FRP) leaving over 100M in cap space. Additionally - if we take the trade option we could say, resign KD and use the draft capital from MIL and BOS to trade for a big fish who can come into the salary cap.

Just thinking outside the box. IMO at this juncture assuming we simply tank is about as unrealistic as these hypotheticals that have us trading for a win-now guy. Its just very clear the FO isnt interested in tanking at this juncture, and I dont see that changing.

KD has warts, but for those warts he is also exactly what this team needs - a go-to scorer. And surrounding him with guys that hustle and play D would be his ideal spot at this juncture of his career.

[Walton1one]

You are sacrificing the future for the now, and that now is not even that good. This team with Durant on it is what, a 1st round loser?

and all this cap in the summer is meaningless for a team like POR who cannot attract big time FA, there is a long storied history of that, so I don't understand this hope that this time it will be different.

[Walton1one]

Booker will not be available.

Sabas might, but only if he demands a trade. Some rumblings there, but too early to tell.

Regardless, no one here has much apatite for a major splash trade… the pick likely won’t even be Top 10 at this rate. Moving down makes very little sense. Might as well just make the pick and call it an evening. Maybe move Simons if you can, but genuinely just expecting another quiet offseason and this team just being run back… again. Chauncey probably back too, and Blazers somewhere in a mid-30 win season again next year.

Why don't you have the appetite to make a move like we made to acquire Deni, when you seem to believe (probably rightly so), that keeping the pick will lead to another mediocre season?

We have better chips this year. Our 1st, expirings, Sharpe. Make a bold move. I'm not saying one will necessarily be out there, I'm saying look.

Name that player though.

I have looked exhaustively at every other teams' rosters, and I don't see another "star" player that makes sense for this team that could be available.

Booker certainly appears to not be available, PHX owner came out and was pretty definitive about it, doesn't mean he is lying or things change (Joe Cronin is POR GM after all), but seems pretty unlikely to me.

and Sabonis wants a discussion about the direction of the franchise, which is a warning sign, but not a "he will be traded immediately" sign. I kind of equate it to putting the team on notice, like Dame did, like Giannis did. Meaning, probably another year, see what moves are made, how they perform etc...

Sabonis is a FA in 28/29, the year before that 27/28 Lavine\DeRozan & Valanciunas are all UFA and Monk has a PO then is a FA in 28/29.

So, the only large contracts would be whatever Murray's new deal is & if they resign Ellis.

All this certainly appears to lead to them rolling it back next year, maybe trying to add a few pieces, and then if they don't see improvement, the 26/27 season could be time to move on all those guys expiring deals + Monk

The only names (so far) that have been out there are: RJ Barrett, Trae Young (has been mentioned in the past, but I don't recall this year?), maybe Zion & maybe Ball (both more speculation than anything substantial)

Barrett is not a star IMO, though Schmidt\Cronin may feel so
Young would be an odd fit, unless Scoot is dealt and Simons in ok coming off the bench (or are you going to pay Sharpe$30mil to do that?)
Who would want any part of LaMelo Ball, who treats NBA games like he is running games at Rico Hines

and Zion, who can't stay healthy & has weight issues, which is EXACTLY why NO would even deal him in the first place.

If POR, with all the history of failed big men, traded for Zion (and it would be a steep price IMO) an oft injured\overweight big man, that would be seriously tempting fate. What could possibly go wrong?

[Walton1one]

RJ Barrett could make sense b\c age wise (25 next year) he fits with what it appears Cronin thinks is his core: Simons 26, Ayton 27, Deni 25, Camara 25 & Williams 28,. He is signed for 2 more years (#27/$29) and POR avoids committing big money to Sharpe (so they can give it to Simons & Ayton!)

I don't think he is a star, I don't think this makes POR anything more than an also ran playoff team, but maybe that is all they care about?

Trae could work as well, but that means saying goodbye to Scoot for sure, probably Simons as well. A lot of moving parts to make Trae work in POR, and again, he has great pieces surrounding him in ATL and he has not really led them anywhere substantial, but we expect it would be different in POR? That is quite a leap IMO