Ayton

[DaVoiceMaster]

Wow Dude

[Wizenheimer]

Congrats on the brilliant analysis that Ayton is not Hakeem/Jokic/Prime Sabonis tier. I had not realized that prior to your post. .

you know what...go pound sand with your barrage of stupid fking straw men. What is it lately with your constant deflections?

my analysis is that Ayton isn't as good as rookie Clingan. Forget about Jokic. He's not as good as Jarrett Allen or Sengun or Naz Reid or Steven Adams or Daniel Gafford or Walter Kessler or Ivica Zubac or Mitchell Robinson or Jalen Duren or WCJ or Okongwu or Poeltl or Nic Claxton or Yves Missi or Mark Williams

I don't believe Ayton has a top-30 C value when you gauge by talent, critical skills, salary, and upside. Drew Eubanks at 5M is more attractive than Ayton at 35M. Ayton does not play winning basketball. He's a worse empty stats big than Whiteside. A 7' JJ Hickson

[DeBlazerRiddem]

I'll throw in my hot take... Ayton is mercurial. He is inconsistent, more so than many players. There is good Ayton and bad Ayton. The good Ayton doesn't do enough (or show up enough) to justify the bad Ayton but it is there. He is not Hassan Whiteside type bad. I remember him and Ayton is better than that. There is a good player in there, limited but positive at points, he was part of a good Suns team and IIRC was a part of our mini run mid season. But again, it is too often out shadowed by the bad and you look at year after year progression and it is a downward trend for Ayton, no one smart bets on that trend reversing, maybe a bump or two in a contract year but the trend will continue. Suns fans told us as much. Thankfully we have a young center who seems to have a good defensive impact on our hands so we don't even have to make a tough decision.

Both Ayton and Simons should be allowed to expire. If they take MLE ish contracts to stay with a familiar situation then maybe, and I stress that maybe, you consider their ability to contribute in smaller roles but it will be a day of great shame to our front office if either get extended with real significant money. A day that like most I fear is entirely possible, this front office doesn't seem to know when to get off a bad ride.

[Butter]

I'll throw in my hot take... Ayton is mercurial. He is inconsistent, more so than many players. There is good Ayton and bad Ayton. The good Ayton doesn't do enough (or show up enough) to justify the bad Ayton but it is there. He is not Hassan Whiteside type bad. I remember him and Ayton is better than that. There is a good player in there, limited but positive at points, he was part of a good Suns team and IIRC was a part of our mini run mid season. But again, it is too often out shadowed by the bad and you look at year after year progression and it is a downward trend for Ayton, no one smart bets on that trend reversing, maybe a bump or two in a contract year but the trend will continue. Suns fans told us as much. Thankfully we have a young center who seems to have a good defensive impact on our hands so we don't even have to make a tough decision.

Both Ayton and Simons should be allowed to expire. If they take MLE ish contracts to stay with a familiar situation then maybe, and I stress that maybe, you consider their ability to contribute in smaller roles but it will be a day of great shame to our front office if either get extended with real significant money. A day that like most I fear is entirely possible, this front office doesn't seem to know when to get off a bad ride.

I agree with everything you said in this post. The one wrinkle is if the Blazers find a team looking to dump a star player on a big contract. Someone like Porter in Denver.

NOT saying they should trade for Porter, but that kind of deal.

[dckingsfan]

From reading what you are writing, I assume you are making the point that they are not bad backup NBA players and should be on those types of contracts?

So, can I assume that Cronin should offer them very team friendly contracts this off-season?

Do you think either player would be good being a backup?

These are the rhetorical questions that answer themselves. Ayton and Simons see themselves as stars and want to get paid as such (opinion). Ayton will not be happy being a backup to Clingan. Neither will Simons to Scoot.

So, isn't the best outcome to move them now (if you can get back something worthwhile) or just let them expire (given this new CBA)? I think the answer is yes.

They are mid-level players. Total cap (up to the luxury tax, if lucky) / 14 or 15 man roster = average salary allotment per player.
Now, you want superstars that are maxed and deserving of a max contract. But, if you don't have those, that doesn't mean give someone like Evan Turner 2x the market price because you have the cap space.

Simons and Ayton could either be below average starters or above average bench players. Both have league talent. Both have flaws in their games. If you pay them according to that role, they are not bad players nor negative value.

Every time someone says that Simons or Ayton sucks, they are reinforcing why they haven't been moved. Their flaws are known and other GMs understand what they are getting. Plus, Simons and Ayton are expiring. So, why give up value now when you could potentially just sign them in the off-season for free?

Now, you hope that a GM is feeling pressure and makes a panic trade. And you absolutely take that. But that is not a guarantee. And the best chance of doing that is to let them be high usage chuckers putting up stats in their contract years. Trade deadline comes around, and Simons is putting up a top 5 ppg in the league. Ayton is being Domin-Ayton and not "what's new on Netflix?"-Ayton. But if you don't, the Blazers are a lottery team next year anyway. Just helps the tank. And, no harm - no foul. They get MLE tier contracts to match their on-court value add, or they walk and the Blazers don't lose them for nothing - they free up ~$50M in cap space.

As for whether Simons and Ayton would be cool in a backup role - probably not. But they aren't likely to start on a championship contender. If that opportunity presents itself, you thank them for their time here and move on. No team would ever look back and go, "No! I didn't give Anfernee Simons and DeAndre Ayton contracts matching Jeremie Grant!" But if they stayed, they know their role and like the guaranteed money and city/team/etc. My guess would you'd see a more chucker version of Simons and a the DGAF version of Ayton.

I think I get it, bottom line - they aren't worth their contracts (but you don't want them to be called bums by the fans). You offer them very team friendly contract declining contracts. They say no - and you thank them and move on. You HOPE that another team signs the to large deals (n-game theory).

Simons and Ayton are who they are - there maximum value will be next year as expiring contracts with MLE value (opinion). Reminder, in this new CBA losing a player isn't like losing in the old CBA. It is fine unless it is a really good player. Now, if you can trade one or both of them for value - go for it.

I fully disagree with letting either go into full chuck mode just as you are creating a team identity around defense. I am fully onboard if say Clingan or Scoot become the starter and one or both of those two just expire.

And how fans react to players matters not, right? Well, probably it does have an effect on a GM and their decision making.

[dckingsfan]

I agree with everything you said in this post. The one wrinkle is if the Blazers find a team looking to dump a star player on a big contract. Someone like Porter in Denver.

NOT saying they should trade for Porter, but that kind of deal.

I have been trying to find that good deal - I just can't come up with one. The teams that need cap space relief don't have the trade assets we want or the draft assets we want. Maybe possible if we jump in on another deal - say that Milwaukee wants to move Giannis to SA for example -- even then...

[Butter]

I agree with everything you said in this post. The one wrinkle is if the Blazers find a team looking to dump a star player on a big contract. Someone like Porter in Denver.

NOT saying they should trade for Porter, but that kind of deal.

I have been trying to find that good deal - I just can't come up with one. The teams that need cap space relief don't have the trade assets we want or the draft assets we want. Maybe possible if we jump in on another deal - say that Milwaukee wants to move Giannis to SA for example -- even then...

Hopefully, Cronins got some options he's working

[Wizenheimer]

He is not Hassan Whiteside type bad. I remember him and Ayton is better than that. .

I get why you'd say that. But, for your consideration, a comparison of Whiteside in Portland to Ayton last season

Points/100-possessions: Ayton 23.2....Whiteside 24.7 (Whiteside 1.5 more points on 2.2 fewer shots)
Rebonds/100-possessions: Ayton 16.4....Whiteside 21.5
Blocks/100-possessions: Ayton 1.6....Whiteside 4.7
FTA/100-possessions: Ayton 2.4....Whiteside 5.7

Off Rating: Ayton 115....Whiteside 125
Def Rating: Ayton 112....Whiteside 107
Net Rating: Ayton +3....Whiteside +18

FG%: Ayton .566....Whiteside .621
FT%: Ayton .667....Whiteside .686
eFG%: Ayton .573....Whiteside .624
TS%: Ayton .583....Whiteside .644
Points/Shot: Ayton 1.23....Whiteside 1.48

PER: Ayton 17.7....Whiteside 25.0
FT Rate: Ayton .128....Whiteside .340
Total Reb Rate: Ayton 18.2%....Whiteside 23.6%
Off Reb Rate: Ayton 10.9%....Whiteside 13.6%
Assist Rate: Ayton 8.5%....Whiteside 5.9%
Block Rate: Ayton 2.9%....Whiteside 8.4%
Winshares/48: Ayton .113....Whiteside .204
BPM: Ayton -0.7....Whiteside +3.2
VORP: Ayton 0.4....Whiteside 2.6 (cumulative; but Whiteside 650% higher VORP on 67% more minutes)

it's a clean sweep, across the board for Whiteside...except for assists rate. And considering Ayton is a poor passer, that make Whiteside terrible

but other that that....

* Whiteside was an elite rim-protector & shot-blocker. Yeah, sometimes he'd go overboard hunting shots to block and allow back door offensive rebounds. But he had a definite impact in altering opponent shots. When Whiteside was on the floor, opponents had a eFG% of .523; when he was off the floor, it was .538. When Ayton was on the floor, opponents had an eFG% of .570; when he was off the floor it was .531. Those are huge differences

* same is true for the overall opponent offenses. When Whiteside was on the floor opponents had an offensive rating of 113.8; off the floor it was 116.9. Not the same, at all, for Ayton. When he was on the floor, Opponents had an offensive rating of 118.4; when he was off the floor 113.6

* if you're keeping track, Whitesides on/off-team/opponent net offensive rating was +8.0. Ayton's was -5.1

to me, rim protection and paint defense are, generically, the most important skills for a modern big. Rebounding is quite important too and Whiteside was much better at that, at both ends of the floor, especially offensive rebounding. Whiteside got to the FT line at a much higher rate which meant he was drawing fouls on defenders and getting opponents in the bonus; not the case with Ayton. They both suck as passers. Whiteside was better at screens

the only skill advantage Ayton has is mid-range shooting; without drawing fouls. I don't see much value in that. I wasn't very fond of Whiteside, but IMO, he did things well that had more value

[DeBlazerRiddem]

Welp ok that is a pretty telling comparison. My impression was that Whiteside chased stats at the expense of the team and I don't think Ayton does that as much, its not surprising to me that Whiteside was in general more productive but when it's that lopsided its hard to use that as a justification. Poor comparison aside however I think we agree his career is on a bad trend and he is not worth keeping around.

[Wizenheimer]

Welp ok that is a pretty telling comparison. My impression was that Whiteside chased stats at the expense of the team and I don't think Ayton does that as much, its not surprising to me that Whiteside was in general more productive but when it's that lopsided its hard to use that as a justification. Poor comparison aside however I think we agree his career is on a bad trend and he is not worth keeping around.

don't get me wrong, I wasn't a Whiteside fan although I did like how he protected the rim and patrolled the paint. The Blazer team he was on was pretty dysfunctional. The season before was the WCF team. But somehow, Olshey believed the lesson from that was to get rid of Aminu, Harkless, Kanter, Turner & Curry; then replace them with Whiteside-Melo-Bazemore-Tolliver-Hezonja. Have no idea what equation Olshey had rattling around his head

[dckingsfan]

I think the point stands - Ayton hasn't rounded into a top 15 center. He has had time and opportunity to develop but just hasn't (and if anything has gone in reverse). I don't know why... I do think that Clingan (at this point) has a much better upside for this developing team.

Where does that leave us - I would hope that he would be moved or not resigned. It was an experiment - time to move on.

[Butter]

I think the point stands - Ayton hasn't rounded into a top 15 center. He has had time and opportunity to develop but just hasn't (and if anything has gone in reverse). I don't know why... I do think that Clingan (at this point) has a much better upside for this developing team.

Where does that leave us - I would hope that he would be moved or not resigned. It was an experiment - time to move on.

Agreed. Trade him or let him expire. Those are the two options IMHO

[Wizenheimer]

I think the point stands - Ayton hasn't rounded into a top 15 center. He has had time and opportunity to develop but just hasn't (and if anything has gone in reverse). I don't know why... I do think that Clingan (at this point) has a much better upside for this developing team.

Where does that leave us - I would hope that he would be moved or not resigned. It was an experiment - time to move on.

this season, he was the 6th highest paid C; 7th if you count AD

curious, if you disregard salary and downgrade upside, does Ayton make the top-15 in C's, especially when defense and rim protection are factored?

Jolic
Embiid
KAT
AD
Wemby
Sabonis
Adebayo
Gobert
Zubac
Sengun
Myles Turner
Jarett Allen
Mobley
Chet Holmgren
Hartenstein
Jaren Jackson
Vucevic
Nic Claxton
Duren
Kessler
Clingan


Naz Reid
Brook Lopez
Gafford
Derek Lively
WCJ
Mark Williams
Poeltl
Valunciunas
Okongwu
Capela
Zach Edey

you can add his name to the 2nd group, but he's not better than every one of those 11 C's. And there are still 21 C's on that first list. Then, if you re-introduce the salary & upside factors, Ayton falls back. Forget top-15....is he even top-25 or top-30? I know Ayton fans will take exception to this and talk about him on an MLE-level contract, but that isn't the case now

[PDXKnight]

^ Id assess fair market value for ayton to be somewhere around 15-20 million. I personally wouldn't want the Blazers to pay that but I think it would be "fair" value for a second tier center. 10 mil seems about right for a backup center but i can't see ayton being on board with that so hopefully we just deal him or let him move on

[dckingsfan]

I think the point stands - Ayton hasn't rounded into a top 15 center. He has had time and opportunity to develop but just hasn't (and if anything has gone in reverse). I don't know why... I do think that Clingan (at this point) has a much better upside for this developing team.

Where does that leave us - I would hope that he would be moved or not resigned. It was an experiment - time to move on.

Agreed. Trade him or let him expire. Those are the two options IMHO

Exactly. Hence he will have value this next season as an expiring contract. We may or many not be able to get back assets that would make a trade worthwhile.

[Walton1one]

The fundamental issue is that Ayton\Simons & Grant even at $15\20mil per year are not conducive to a winning basketball team, just by the way they play, but at 2-2.5x that? That is ridiculous...

POR cannot afford to waste money on sub optimal rotation level players (Simons\Grant\Ayton, even Camara), which is exactly what they have done and (hopefully not) may do again.

Paying $35mil for Simons or Ayton and having Grant on the books for $35+ is vastly overpaying for what their roles are worth

Do you think IND would trade Nembhard for Simons? or Nesmith for Grant?

Nembhard is locked up thru 27/28 @ $18\$19.5\$21 - Simons is making $27.7 next year and then $30-35mil after if POR re-signs him? That is laughable

Nesmith is locked up thru 26/27 @ $11\$11

Grant is due $32\$34\$36.4

Even paying Camara $30mil, could be detrimental, as good as he is.

My hope is Camara takes the 4-year\$89 mil deal, essentially replacing the 4th of his deal @ $2mil and starting a 4-year deal from there at $22.2mil\year, which for him is really $27mil\year given he goes from a 4th year making $2mil to making $22mil instead.

Camara at a deal at $22mil\year you can live with, at $30mil+?, well then he better be one of your top 3 best players, and while he may be that now, given the state of this roster, I would remind you that POR is a team w\o a star level player and it is debatable if they have a true #2 player as well.

Camara is a great role player, as your 3rd highest salary? I am not so sure, but at least with him you can justify it somewhat and make it worlk if you are probably ok with paying luxury tax (and the product on court reflects that), but how do you justify that kind of money for non-winning players like Simons, Grant & Ayton?

[Walton1one]

Insiders mention that Cronin\Kolde like to compare POR trajectory to HOU trajectory, which was why I was interested in watching HOU in the playoffs.

52-30, #2 seed in a tough WC, then bounced in 7 games by a GS team that got trounced in the next round by MIN

I am very skeptical that HOU can go very far in the playoffs w\o a true star player on their roster, now maybe they might have one in Amen Thompson (he looked very good), which would change their trajectory, but the comparisons b\t POR & HOU stop at, both are young (approx same age) & both have a mix of young guys\vets but no star player.

But when you start comparing POR best young player to HOU best player etc..., it becomes pretty obvious down the line that HOU just has way better talent than POR

The young guys:

Sengun vs Avdija

Thompson vs Camara

Green vs Sharpe

Then you have guys like

Smith Jr & Eason vs Scoot & Clingan

The vets:
Van Fleet vs. Simons

Brooks vs Grant

Ayton vs Adams

I fail to see where POR has an advantage anywhere? Ayton vs Adams?

AYTON
eFG - 74th percentile
TS - 64th percentile
MTW (NETRTG on\\off) - 25th percentile
AST - 28th percentile
MTD - 59th perentile
ORB% - 89th percentile
DRB% - 93rd percentile
USG - 65th percentile

ADAMS
eFG - 62nd percentile
TS - 36th percentile
MTW (NETRTG on\\off) - 90th percentile
AST - 35th percentile
MTD - 87th percentile
ORB% - 99th percentile
DRB% - 82nd percentile
USG - 13th percentile

I mean, no surprise here, right? Ayton is a far better offensive player, but Adams is the far better defensive player and more impactful to his team\game when he is on the floor. This is a good example of stats vs actual impact.The same could apply for Simons' & Grant's "impact" on a game. All fluff, no filler.

So all this to say:

1) I am not even sure that the HOU blueprint is the right\winning blueprint a team should have and it will be interesting to watch over the next few years if they trade a bunch of their assets\youth for a true star level player (note that POR, you need assets to be able to GET that player & the more you have the less it hurts your core group).

2) That POR is delusional if they think they are mirroring this blueprint

Oh, and I did not even mention "the rest", which is quite substantial

HOU has additional good young players in Whitmore & Sheppard, POR has Murray and Rupert?

HOU has a #10 pick this year, POR has #11

HOU also has a better war chest (pick wise) being able to trade PHX 27 1st, (2) 29 1st's from DAL\HOU\PHX (own 2 most favorable) & 31 1st (their own), POR is able to trade 29 1st most favorable of MIL\BOS\POR & 31 1st (their own)

[scoobs07]

There was a good tidbit about him in there that said he shoots a lot of middies. That is good to know, I didn't know that. I wouldn't want to trade for him any more.

[JasonStern]

Congrats on the brilliant analysis that Ayton is not Hakeem/Jokic/Prime Sabonis tier. I had not realized that prior to your post. .

you know what...go pound sand with your barrage of stupid fking straw men. What is it lately with your constant deflections?

my analysis is that Ayton isn't as good as rookie Clingan. Forget about Jokic. He's not as good as Jarrett Allen or Sengun or Naz Reid or Steven Adams or Daniel Gafford or Walter Kessler or Ivica Zubac or Mitchell Robinson or Jalen Duren or WCJ or Okongwu or Poeltl or Nic Claxton or Yves Missi or Mark Williams

I don't believe Ayton has a top-30 C value when you gauge by talent, critical skills, salary, and upside. Drew Eubanks at 5M is more attractive than Ayton at 35M. Ayton does not play winning basketball. He's a worse empty stats big than Whiteside. A 7' JJ Hickson

And Hickson was a great mini-MLE tier player. A flawed player that fit a role and wasn't a locker room cancer. Didn't cause any drama. Wasn't some massively overpaid player. Congrats on insulting a player you probably never even met anonymously on the internet, while also insulting someone anonymously on the internet.

Ayton is a top 20 center. I don't know why this is hard to fathom. He is on an insanely overpriced contract. I have never argued that. Suns fans laughed when we took on his contract. Olshey style reclamation project that was likely to fail. Benched for fantom injuries. I think the team just stopped caring at some point during the season, but who knows? Is he an unmotivated 10-10 guy? Sure. Does that put him in the Joel Pryzbilla tier? Sure. Why specifically do people remember Pryzbilla fondly but crap on Ayton? Other than the big contract and draft hype, what am I missing?

So much negativity on the board as a result of the Blazers sucking and having no clear path to fix things, uncertainty in why the future owner would keep the team in Portland, etc. If lashing out on me makes you all feel better, great. But, I don't think I've said anything unjustified and haven't intentionally insulted individual people for their views. If anyone takes things that seriously, remember it's a game that kids play.

[tblazrdude]

^ Id assess fair market value for ayton to be somewhere around 15-20 million. I personally wouldn't want the Blazers to pay that but I think it would be "fair" value for a second tier center. 10 mil seems about right for a backup center but i can't see ayton being on board with that so hopefully we just deal him or let him move on

can someone point me to an example of a big money player 27 or younger taking less money to stay with that team?

I can't think of one. usually you take less money to go to a destination of your choosing.