Game 4: Portland vs LA Lakers 7:30pm RipCitytv KUPN

[PDXKnight]

Its hard not to like DC, props to him on his start to the season. Coach Tiago will be good for Clingan i could really see him being our x factor this season, not gonna get rhe glory but like toumani just shows up to win every day

[BlazersBroncos]

DC is going to be rock solid at minimum. I dont see much offensive creation potential, which is fine. But if he can get close to Myles Turner / Lopez volume and efficiency from 3 he becomes a whole different level of player IMO. DC making 1.5-2 3PT shots per game at 33%+ efficiency is a huge addition to our offense - especially with Sharpe and Deni being best when moving to the hoop / attacking. Kickouts should be a-plenty.

On defense he is a monster. He alters so many shots at the rim even when he doesnt get the block. Outside Wemby being in a class of his own I think DC is in that league with guys like Kessler and its only early in his 2nd year. His RB% are elite obviously as well.

Finally, the passing is showing up so far even if they are not flashy to this point. 2apg in 25mpg w/ under 15% usage is excellent for a C. He just makes the right plays on both sides of the ball.

[zzaj]

I get that fans are feel-goody about Lillard. And at his cost, he could be a high value player. But the other way to look at this is that Lillard could very well stick out like a sore thumb (in a bad way) when he returns:

1) The team has apparently committed to 'pace' and uptempo play. Given Splitter's work with Paris, it wouldn't surprise me to see that continue. Lillard has never shown to be comfortable in an uptempo offense. In fact, he's probably a big part of the reason why it was promised in Portland for years, and it never happened. He's a purely halfcourt player, and that's not going to change.

2) The team has committed to defense...to the point that other coaches are remarking on it. Lillard in his prime was a terrible defender, and that's not going to get better at age 36 coming off a year long achilles rehab. If the starting lineup for the Blazers next year is Lillard/Jrue/Camara/Deni/Clingan, Lillard is going to be hunted 11 times out of 10 by every team in the league.

About the only thing that Lillard offers that can help the team on the court is shooting, but even that is probably overstated. He's a career 37% 3pt shooter and requires big volume. He's around 50% from 2 for his career which is fine. IIRC, his last year in Portland he played off-ball more and it wasn't as beautiful as we all thought it would be. He's clearly a rhythm shooter, that excels with having the ball in his hands to hit shots.

Lillard is GREAT in the PnR...except that he has no PnR partner any more. Clingan? Yang? I guess maybe his old pal Grant?

Lillard is GREAT at getting to the FT line...is he going to have the explosiveness to do that at the same level?

...and this is all assuming Lillard comes back at close to 100% of what he was prior to his injury. If he comes back at 75%, I'd argue that you probably are looking at having a higher BBIQ version of Anfernee Simons back on the team. One who is going to want to start, and doesn't fit the complexion of the Blazer identity at all...

a lot of assumptions. They may be solid assumptions but I'm not convinced

to start with, we all may want to wait till after the all-star break to gauge the value Pace to the Blazer roster. A lot of teams have started a season with high pace and dropped well off of their season beginning pace as their strengths have been scouted and the season wears on and rotations tighten. Blazer 5th in pace right now at 105.6, but I'd bet that drops, maybe by quite a bit once injuries start to take a toll, even minor injuries.

just for reference, in the 2017-18 season the Blazers were 13th with a pace of 100.7. That was over the entire season, after injuries and trades at the deadline. If you assume the current team's pace will drop, what it would mean is that this year's team would generate less than 1 possession a quarter more than a Dame-led team. Meaning you may be overrating the impact of pace

another assumption: Dame will hurt the defense. Probably, but how much of how little would it really be? In 2017-18 a Blazer team with Dame AND CJ as the starting back court ended up 8th in the NBA with a defensive rating of 106.4, Compare that to the current team def rating of 5th with a def rating of
105.6. In other words a team with Dame & CJ as 36 min/game starters had a defense that was only 0.8 points worse than the current team. But that was before Olshey decided to gut team defense in favor of keeping his undersized back court

I get that Dame will be coming off a major injury and 36 years old. But as a Blazer he never played with a defensive roster like the current one or a defensive C like Clingan. And all of the current team's numbers are of a 4 game sample size. Their defense is going to get scouted; their transition offense will get scouted. Teams will adjust, especially after they see the Blazers for the first time

I have always been a big Dame fan but I wasn't giddy about re-signing him like a lot of Blazer fans were. There were things not to like about it. But, if he can return to 80-85% of what he was, what he will do is make the Blazer half-court offense better, and that is a weakness, at least it was last season. At the same time I don't think he's disadvantage the pace or the defense as much as people assume

I get what you're saying Wiz...and I'm mostly playing devil's advocate to the idea that Lillard is going to come in and fix all the Blazers' problems...

It's ironic that you chose 2017-2018 as the season for comparison. That was probably the peak of the Aminu/Harkless wing teams...the last time the Blazers had decent defense on the wing. IIRC, it's also in that group of 2-3 years of Nurkic actually being a pretty damned good player, and that also includes defense...he's never been a huge rim protector, but he played pretty good positional defense in that era. You mention that Lillard has never played with a defensive Center like Clingan...I'd be interested in looking into the defensive comparison between '17-'18 Nurkic and Clingan this year. I have a hunch they are closer than we think. Although, who knows...it's been a lot of years and I may be misremembering.

Anyway, as for the pace question? I do think they'll drop down a bit...in fact I think they already have slightly, if my eyes are any indicator. From a fan perspective, I hope it doesn't drop too much. I much prefer this current style, over the 'walk the ball up to 26 feet into high PnR, while everyone else stands around"...

[Wizenheimer]

I get what you're saying Wiz...and I'm mostly playing devil's advocate to the idea that Lillard is going to come in and fix all the Blazers' problems...

It's ironic that you chose 2017-2018 as the season for comparison. That was probably the peak of the Aminu/Harkless wing teams...the last time the Blazers had decent defense on the wing. IIRC, it's also in that group of 2-3 years of Nurkic actually being a pretty damned good player, and that also includes defense...he's never been a huge rim protector, but he played pretty good positional defense in that era. You mention that Lillard has never played with a defensive Center like Clingan...I'd be interested in looking into the defensive comparison between '17-'18 Nurkic and Clingan this year. I have a hunch they are closer than we think. Although, who knows...it's been a lot of years and I may be misremembering.

Anyway, as for the pace question? I do think they'll drop down a bit...in fact I think they already have slightly, if my eyes are any indicator. From a fan perspective, I hope it doesn't drop too much. I much prefer this current style, over the 'walk the ball up to 26 feet into high PnR, while everyone else stands around"...

don't forget that Blazer team had the tag-team backup option of Ed Davis and Zach Collins. They were joined at the hip and had an excellent defensive synergy. Them, combined with Evan Turner and the underrated (defense) Shabazz Napier made for a solid Blazer defense for 48 minutes

[Walton1one]

The other issue with Dame coming back is which direction is this team going? Are they staying with the youth or are they going to cash that in on the backs of two 36yr old guards?

Re-signing Sharpe is nice however, next year there is going to be an issue. Are you telling me Sharpe in Y5 & Scoot in Y4 are going to be coming off the bench? So Dame & Jrue can start?

Lastly, it needs to be said, while Dame has provided some spectacular moments, the reality is he really hasn't led a team to anywhere significant: (1) WCF appearance in 13 seasons, (2) WC SF appearances. Not that great for a Top 75 player of all time

22/23 - finished 13th
21/22 - finished 13th
20/21 - finished 6th, lost R1 2-4
19/20 - finished 6th, lost R1 1-4
18/19 - finished 3rd, lost WCF 0-4
17/18 - finished 3rd, lost R1, 0-4
16/17 - finished 8th, lost R1, 0-4
15/16 - finished 5th, lost WCS 1-4
14/15 - finished 1st, lost R1, 1-4
13/14 - finished 5th, lost WCS, 1-4
12/13 - finished 11th

and then he went to MIL to play with future Top 20 player Giannis and....

23/24 - finished 3rd, lost R1, 2-4
24/25 - finished 5th, lost R1, 1-4

That is why this notion that he is going to come back, age 36, off an achilles injury and elevate this team to championship material strains credulity...

[Shem]

So far this season: Blazers 2-2

Home: 1-1
Road: 1-1
White jerseys: 2-0
Black jerseys: 0-2
Games in Los Angeles: 1-1

[Shem]

Anyone notice that Holiday and Grant have the same haircut with wearing a headband. Then one is wear #5 and the other is #9. There are times (not every time) for a split second I confuse the two when one has the ball for a second because of the visuals from a distance of their head styles with the headband and how similar their numbers look. Especially when their bodies are on a side angle and their numbers aren't directly facing the camera. It just takes my mind just a little longer at times to process which one is which. It's always been the height difference that finally kicks in when I realize which is which.

[zzaj]

Anyone notice that Holiday and Grant have the same haircut with wearing a headband. Then one is wear #5 and the other is #9. There are times (not every time) for a split second I confuse the two when one has the ball for a second because of the visuals from a distance of their head styles with the headband and how similar their numbers look. Especially when their bodies are on a side angle and their numbers aren't directly facing the camera. It just takes my mind just a little longer at times to process which one is which. It's always been the height difference that finally kicks in when I realize which is which.

A few times I’ve been like “nice pass, Jerami” or, “Wow! Grant is really rebounding!” and then I realize it’s Jrue doing those things and Grant still isn’t really doing either. lol.

[Shem]

Anyone notice that Holiday and Grant have the same haircut with wearing a headband. Then one is wear #5 and the other is #9. There are times (not every time) for a split second I confuse the two when one has the ball for a second because of the visuals from a distance of their head styles with the headband and how similar their numbers look. Especially when their bodies are on a side angle and their numbers aren't directly facing the camera. It just takes my mind just a little longer at times to process which one is which. It's always been the height difference that finally kicks in when I realize which is which.

A few times I’ve been like “nice pass, Jerami” or, “Wow! Grant is really rebounding!” and then I realize it’s Jrue doing those things and Grant still isn’t really doing either. lol.

Jrue has been a breath of fresh air. I don't care if he's 35. He's way better than what we had with Simons who's 26. And wouldn't have gotten him if Tatum doesn't blow his achilles.

[DusterBuster]

Anyone notice that Holiday and Grant have the same haircut with wearing a headband. Then one is wear #5 and the other is #9. There are times (not every time) for a split second I confuse the two when one has the ball for a second because of the visuals from a distance of their head styles with the headband and how similar their numbers look. Especially when their bodies are on a side angle and their numbers aren't directly facing the camera. It just takes my mind just a little longer at times to process which one is which. It's always been the height difference that finally kicks in when I realize which is which.

A few times I’ve been like “nice pass, Jerami” or, “Wow! Grant is really rebounding!” and then I realize it’s Jrue doing those things and Grant still isn’t really doing either. lol.

Jrue has been a breath of fresh air. I don't care if he's 35. He's way better than what we had with Simons who's 26. And wouldn't have gotten him if Tatum doesn't blow his achilles.

Agreed on every letter.

[Wizenheimer]

DC is going to be rock solid at minimum. I dont see much offensive creation potential, which is fine. But if he can get close to Myles Turner / Lopez volume and efficiency from 3 he becomes a whole different level of player IMO. DC making 1.5-2 3PT shots per game at 33%+ efficiency is a huge addition to our offense - especially with Sharpe and Deni being best when moving to the hoop / attacking. Kickouts should be a-plenty.

On defense he is a monster. He alters so many shots at the rim even when he doesnt get the block. Outside Wemby being in a class of his own I think DC is in that league with guys like Kessler and its only early in his 2nd year. His RB% are elite obviously as well.

Finally, the passing is showing up so far even if they are not flashy to this point. 2apg in 25mpg w/ under 15% usage is excellent for a C. He just makes the right plays on both sides of the ball.

one thing about his offense you didn't mention is his work on the offensive glass. Possessions after an offensive rebound are one of the most valuable and efficient possessions there are

Clingan is averaging 4.5 offensive rebounds a game; 6.7 per36 with a offensive rebound rate of 19.1% which is 3rd in the league. That's a lot more valuable than making 1 three a game. Much rather him in rebounding position when a shot goes up than shooting 24' away from the rim

Clingan's ranking on team:

3rd in def rating
2nd in off rating
2nd in PER
1st in FG%
1st in 2ptFG%
3rd in eFG%
3rd in TS%
1st in TRB%, DRB%, and ORB%
1st in winshare/48
3rd in BPM
1st (tied) in VORP

[Shem]

to start with, we all may want to wait till after the all-star break to gauge the value Pace to the Blazer roster. A lot of teams have started a season with high pace and dropped well off of their season beginning pace as their strengths have been scouted and the season wears on and rotations tighten. Blazer 5th in pace right now at 105.6, but I'd bet that drops, maybe by quite a bit once injuries start to take a toll, even minor injuries.

Here's something else to consider. Wouldn't the "injuries including minor injuries" apply to the other 29 teams as well? And I'm talking about the current rank (5th), not the 105.6?

[Shem]

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[Wizenheimer]

to start with, we all may want to wait till after the all-star break to gauge the value Pace to the Blazer roster. A lot of teams have started a season with high pace and dropped well off of their season beginning pace as their strengths have been scouted and the season wears on and rotations tighten. Blazer 5th in pace right now at 105.6, but I'd bet that drops, maybe by quite a bit once injuries start to take a toll, even minor injuries.

Here's something else to consider. Wouldn't the "injuries including minor injuries" apply to the other 29 teams as well? And I'm talking about the current rank (5th), not the 105.6?

sure...but all injuries are not the same. If Jrue misses games, that's going to impact transition opportunities, but the bigger impact would be in the pace of Portland's half court sets

if Clingan misses games, Portland's rebounding will suffer. On the defensive glass outlet transitions will be less. On the other hand, his offensive rebounds continue a possession, so that might end up a net zero in terms of team pace

but mainly I was speculating about the potential impact Dame might have on Portland's pace and defense. If the current Blazer pace regresses by 2 or 3 points than it gets pretty close to the pace of some of the seasons when Dame was a Blazer. As for defense, it's a lot easier for a strong defensive roster to cover for one weak defender. The Warriors have been doing it for years with Curry. The Suns did it with Nash. And, Dame at 36 coming back from an injury will probably be averaging a lot closer to 25 minutes than 35 like he used to

[Walton1one]

Never go full post Marang....

[JasonStern]

Just to be clear - I don't hate Grant. Never have. I just hate his contract. I love him coming off the bench. It's a young team, and having one of Jrue or Grant on the floor at all times is huge if the goal is to try to make the play-in. Master Splitter trying to run a high pace offense, which is great fun if you are realistic about your expectations. But it really doesn't work without some veteran presence overseeing things.

I'll say it again...I'm not all that worried about Sharpe. But a lot of that is because I've never really bought into the idea that he's going to be a #1 option on a good team. Right now he's looking more like a 6th man type for his career...

I have zero problems with his shot volume. I'd much prefer he take shots he feels like he can make at this stage, than be in his head about what's a good shot or bad shot. Does his best shot diet mirror someone like DDR? Yeah, probably at this stage. He's being asked to create shots off the dribble, which is nearly impossible in the NBA. I feel like he's trying to rely on contact for FT attempts a little too much...it's slowing him down. He looks his best when he just is decisive with the ball and what he wants to do.

The DDR comparison is spot on. If you look at an efficiency heat map, he's top 5-10 in the key - and that includes bigs. Then you look at the mid range, and it's solid. Think prime Aldridge. And then you get to the 3 ball, and he's ranked higher than he should be - but only because there are a minimum number of attempts needed to be ranked. Much easier to be in the top ~120 out of 120 than ~120 out of 450.

So the takeaway if anyone listens to my drunk-ass is that Master Splitter shouldn't be letting him shoot the 3 unless it's a last resort. The whole modern NBA math of "3 points is 150% of 2 points" doesn't work when you don't make the 3. But most people's GOAT in Jordan couldn't shoot the 3 consistently when he was young, relying on athleticism. He developed a longer range shot as his athleticism declined. Now, that doesn't mean that Sharpe can or will develop a long range shot. It just means that, at this point in his career, he's better utilized being used off cuts or taking mid-range jumpers against smaller/less athletic defenders. But, I hope there's a shooting coach trying to fix what is wrong.