3-way Breakdown

[Yadadimean]

^^^I wouldnt even have to think about that deal before I pulled the trigger. Unfortunately Rod Thorn is under the impression that he is going to get fair value in return for an aging star at the end of his prime who publicly demanded a trade. He'll get over it once he realizes nobody is going to offer as much as he thinks he should be able to get.

[Telfaire]

Assuming we'll be giving away Raef, Frye, Jack and Sergio (all go to the Nets) for Harris, Bass, Magloire and Stackhouse, do you think we should add some of our 2nd rounders or even our 1st round pick?

[Billy]

Pritchard holds all the cards right now because he is not the one looking for the trade but he is the one with all the young players full of potential with inexpensive contracts. He is also holding 4 draft picks, 3 players overseas and a #1 sitting on the bench in street clothes.

At some point, he will have to move some of these players but only when he gets a 'wow' deal. As long as he doesn't wait as long as Nash.... :wavefinger:

Exactly the way we should want it. If you can somehow come out of this with Harris and Outlaw is still a Blazer, you did one heck of a job most likely.

[Village Idiot]

Am I the only one who would rather have Webster than Outlaw?

I'm with you on that BamBam. It's easy to forget Martell is still only just barely 21 and has progressed massively the past year. Personally I think he has a much better chance to be a stud than Outlaw who has two years of age and experience over him. Remember how hopeless Outlaw was two years ago. I think we can all agree that Martell is far more advanced than Outlaw was at the same age. I have a hard time believing Martell won't get better considering how far he's come the past year. Add another drive and dish guard to the equation in Harris and keeping Webster is even more important.

If the choice is between:

Webster and Frye

or

Outlaw

we let Outlaw go hard as it may be.

[JD45]

-= original quote snipped =-



That comparison is really awful. It bases almost all the pro-Harris arguments on how much better Dallas is than New Jersey. Gee, you think? But while Kidd is NJ's best player, Harris is barely in Dallas's top 5. I mean they actually compared Kidd's Finals record '2-8' with Harris's '2-4' I mean come on!

I will come out and say it folks. Devan Harris is really over-rated. He's been in the league for four years and he's still mediocre and a quasi-starter. That ain't good enough. Statistically speaking he's not all that great, just another Kirk Heinrich whom you all wanted last year, and how's he doing now? Stay away from Harris.

Harris barely in Dallas' top 5? What games have you been watching? Or have you got him confused with another player? At worst, Harris is the 3rd best player in Dallas. And he is close to passing Howard.

He is 3rd rated base on his +/- stats this year.
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708DAL.HTM

Last year he had the highest +/- stats on the Mavs.
http://www.82games.com/0607/0607DAL.HTM

Harris is the Mavs best defensive player. And he scores very efficiently. Just looking at his top line stats can be deceptive. He is capable of scoring a lot more points, but he is splitting time with another good PG and playing on a team with terrific scorers.

[Telfaire]

Take a look at this scenario, I think it's a likely one and could work out pretty well for us:
http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic. ... 6#15331406

Our part in it - Raef, Frye, Jack, Sergio, Memphis and Knicks' 2nd rounders for Harris, Bass, Stackhouse and Magloire. We could trade Stack to the Cavs for Jones, maybe even add Miles and Snow to the deal?

[tucson]

From want I understand of the poison pill we need to send out an amount that averages Harris contract or least within 25% of it. That would take over $7 million in salaries.

PPP players are very hard to trade unless you offload them to a third or have a team with capspace or a large enough trade exception to swallow the average contract. That's why players with PPP are rarely involved in deals.

Travis is also a BYC player which means we can only take back $2 million for the $4 million we send out.

Here are the salaries of possible trading pieces.


Steve Blake....... ==> 4,250,000
Travis Outlaw.... ==> 4,000,000
Martell Webster. ==> 2,974,080
James Jones...... ==> 2,900,000
Channing Frye... ==> 2,487,420
Jarrett Jack........ ==> 1,217,400
Sergio Rodriguez.. ==> 817,000
Josh McRoberts.... ==> 427,163
Taurean Green..... ==> 427,163




With Jack & Frye totaling $3.7 million it would take at least an additional $3.3 million going out to make it work unless the deal was enlarged with higher salary players on both sides.

Bottom line, it would take Outlaw or Blake or Jones/Webster + Green/McRoberts. None of these combinations likely to happen unless it is for more prominent player.

[Telfaire]

We can trade other guys, if we add Miles or Raef to the mix and take more salary in return. That's what makes us the ultimate trading partners for Dallas and the Nets. We got a big, near expiring contract in Raef; we'll be willing to absorb Stack istead of the Nets; we got plenty of young prospects and picks. Now we just need to make it clear that Outlaw and Webster are out of the question.

[mojomarc]

-= original quote snipped =-

I'm with you on that BamBam. It's easy to forget Martell is still only just barely 21 and has progressed massively the past year. Personally I think he has a much better chance to be a stud than Outlaw who has two years of age and experience over him. Remember how hopeless Outlaw was two years ago. I think we can all agree that Martell is far more advanced than Outlaw was at the same age. I have a hard time believing Martell won't get better considering how far he's come the past year. Add another drive and dish guard to the equation in Harris and keeping Webster is even more important.

If the choice is between:

Webster and Frye

or

Outlaw

we let Outlaw go hard as it may be.

I agree. I think Outlaw is doing a great job for us right now, but I still think long term his ceiling is much closer to being reached than Martell's. The one thing that Outlaw has over Martell is his mid-range shot is more consistent in part because he is so good with that jab step move. It's been clear to me over the last few games that Martell is starting to use that move, but also is starting to get aggressive going to the rim as well. Outlaw is a good, not great, shot blocker, but Martell is also a good, not great, shotblocker as well. Once he figures out how to create a bit more seperation from defenders, and at 21 he still has time, he's going to be much more of an offensive force than Travis and just as good if not a better defensive player.

That said, I'd rather not move either, but if KP is convinced that Harris is the long-term answer at PG for us (I'm not, but a lot of you are convinced of this), then we need to make this move not based on the wins-losses that Travis can get us this year but where we are going to be long term. A Martell that matures another year or two is almost the perfect starting SF for us, while Travis is almost the perfect energy guy/6th man. I know which one I think is more important for us to have locked down.

I'd miss Travis. As we've discovered, he's one of God's Special Children (tm). But Martell is still by far the more likely of the two to find himself in an all-star game in the future.

On another point: it's easy to think Travis is a much better player than Martell right now because of some of his late game heroics, but look at the stats on the season to date:

Travis: 26.3 minutes, .451 FG% .449 3p% 5.0 rpg 1.5 apg .8 spg .8bpg 13.0 ppg

Martell: 28.3 minutes, .412 FG% .384 3p% 3.9 rpg 1.4 apg .5 spg .4 bpg 10.4 ppg

So far, you can see that Travis is a bit better in just about everything, but not hugely better. But let's look at Travis at the same age:

16.7 minutes, .440 FG% .264 3p% 2.7 rpg .5 apg .4 spg .7 bpg 5.8 ppg

Martell is better in every single category other than FG%, and that disappears for the most part when you do a TS% because Martell takes almost half of his shots from behind the three point line. When you compare the Per36 numbers, you find them pretty much all equal within reason, but I think we can all agree that Outlaw was supremely frustrating at the same time because his basketball IQ was so low and he'd practically spike himself trying to drive on-on-four or throw up an ill-advised outside shot with 18 seconds left on the 24 second clock. Martell is far more mature as a basketball player at the same age.

Obviously, both players have a long way to go before they are indispensible players on a championship team, but I think Martell has a better chance long term at having the greater impact that way.

[Mr Odd]

Its reported that the Nets want more for Kidd.

Does Rod Thorn know the age of Kidd??

There not going to get much more for Kidd.

Also, I believe Dallas can use Van Horns
contract so that might make a difference
for all of you that like to look at what the
deal could be. Billy told me 'bout Van Horn.

[Billy]

Well, Thorn has 3 weeks to hope someone gets desperate. My guess is that there is always someone out there, but will that someone have what it takes to get close to what the potential 3-way can offer the Nets? My guess is no. I really am starting to think that if Kidd gets dealt, this is NJ's best deal--and I'm sure Thorn knows that.

[SabasRevenge!]

Am I the only one who would rather have Webster than Outlaw?

Nope, I agree with you for reasons stated above. I'd also add that Webster looked like our most effective defender on LeBron. Outlaw's trade value may be as high as it ever will be. We're not going to get a potential franchise changing point guard for spare parts. We'll have to give up great value to get a player like that.

When I first heard about the Harris trade I was thrilled at the thought of him coming to Portland. When I saw the cost I cooled a little and my first instinct was Webster instead of Outlaw. Considering that this is not about making the playoffs this year, but for the next 15 years, I'd absolutely trade Outlaw, Frye, and Jack for Harris.

[Wizenheimer]

so it appears the trade as reported was outlaw-frye-jack-draft pick from portland for harris and bass

And apparently Ric Bucher reported late last night a little different version that was webster-frye-jack-sergio-draft pick for harris, bass, and Fazekas

My take is they are both bad trades for portland. And I seriously doubt KP would consider them. I'm guessing what's being reported is initial proposals out of NJ leaked by Thorn to try and drive up Kidd's price.

Anyway, the frye for bass excahnge: IMO, Frye is better for portland then Bass. I think he's become a bit over-rated by blazer fans wishing for inside muscle. Frye is a better rebounder folks, the numbers confirm that. They're about equal shooters, Bass scores a point more but plays 2 more minutes. Frye has More assists and fewer turnovers. and frye can play C as well as PF. Also, keep in mind that bass was measure at the orlando predraft camp at 6'6.25 barefoot.

This trade would severely impact portland's frontline for the sake of getting a 2nd tier PG.

The other trade still dumps frye for bass, still sends out Jack, but adds webster and sergio in exchange for outlaw. In other words, the blazer backcourt becomes Roy, injured Harris, Blake, and Green....Yikes!

Portland better not send out their 1st round this year in either trade because it will definitely be a lottery pick.

Even if portland doesn't send out a draft pick, either trade is overpaying for Harris and Bass.

Harris is pretty good, and he's probably better then anything else portland could immediately trade for, but there's a line where the cost is too high and both these trades cross it.

Is this a better idea?: it's quite possible that portland will end up in 9th or 10th in the WC standings. That means that portland could have the 13th pick in a fairly deep draft. If they really 'have' to trade a combination of jack-webster-frye-outlaw-sergio-lafrentz, couldn't it be better to trade for a player or 2 while moving up to the 8th, 9th or 10th position?

[mojomarc]

Considering that this is not about making the playoffs this year, but for the next 15 years, I'd absolutely trade Outlaw, Frye, and Jack for Harris.

This is a key point we all have to think about--right now, we're not in the playoffs. Given the teams we're up against, we could very well be back in the lottery, although with a record that would probably make us the fourth seed if we were an East team. As such, we need to think like we're going to be on the outside looking in instead of the other way around because our long term goals are more important than making it this year. Long term, I believe Webster has the higher value for us, while in the short term I think Outlaw has the higher value. If we were only going to make a run at the playoffs this year, I'd say we trade Webster, but since that clearly isn't the case I think Outlaw, as much as we'd like to keep him, just doesn't have the ceiling that Webster does IMO.

Of course, we can always look to sign Outlaw in another couple years for the MLE so he can get a ring if this goes down, since I still think the MLE's about where he will be two years from now (at best).

[Telfaire]

I find it hard to beleive that Dallas can use KVH contract, it expired last summer.

[Billy]

^ I thought I saw somewhere that KVH can be used, possibly just in a S&T...

[Wizenheimer]

-= original quote snipped =-

I'm with you on that BamBam. It's easy to forget Martell is still only just barely 21 and has progressed massively the past year. Personally I think he has a much better chance to be a stud than Outlaw who has two years of age and experience over him. Remember how hopeless Outlaw was two years ago. I think we can all agree that Martell is far more advanced than Outlaw was at the same age. I have a hard time believing Martell won't get better considering how far he's come the past year. Add another drive and dish guard to the equation in Harris and keeping Webster is even more important.

If the choice is between:

Webster and Frye

or

Outlaw

we let Outlaw go hard as it may be.

I agree. I think Outlaw is doing a great job for us right now, but I still think long term his ceiling is much closer to being reached than Martell's. The one thing that Outlaw has over Martell is his mid-range shot is more consistent in part because he is so good with that jab step move. It's been clear to me over the last few games that Martell is starting to use that move, but also is starting to get aggressive going to the rim as well. Outlaw is a good, not great, shot blocker, but Martell is also a good, not great, shotblocker as well. Once he figures out how to create a bit more seperation from defenders, and at 21 he still has time, he's going to be much more of an offensive force than Travis and just as good if not a better defensive player.

That said, I'd rather not move either, but if KP is convinced that Harris is the long-term answer at PG for us (I'm not, but a lot of you are convinced of this), then we need to make this move not based on the wins-losses that Travis can get us this year but where we are going to be long term. A Martell that matures another year or two is almost the perfect starting SF for us, while Travis is almost the perfect energy guy/6th man. I know which one I think is more important for us to have locked down.

I'd miss Travis. As we've discovered, he's one of God's Special Children (tm). But Martell is still by far the more likely of the two to find himself in an all-star game in the future.

On another point: it's easy to think Travis is a much better player than Martell right now because of some of his late game heroics, but look at the stats on the season to date:

Travis: 26.3 minutes, .451 FG% .449 3p% 5.0 rpg 1.5 apg .8 spg .8bpg 13.0 ppg

Martell: 28.3 minutes, .412 FG% .384 3p% 3.9 rpg 1.4 apg .5 spg .4 bpg 10.4 ppg

So far, you can see that Travis is a bit better in just about everything, but not hugely better. But let's look at Travis at the same age:

16.7 minutes, .440 FG% .264 3p% 2.7 rpg .5 apg .4 spg .7 bpg 5.8 ppg
Martell is better in every single category other than FG%, and that disappears for the most part when you do a TS% because Martell takes almost half of his shots from behind the three point line. When you compare the Per36 numbers, you find them pretty much all equal within reason, but I think we can all agree that Outlaw was supremely frustrating at the same time because his basketball IQ was so low and he'd practically spike himself trying to drive on-on-four or throw up an ill-advised outside shot with 18 seconds left on the 24 second clock. Martell is far more mature as a basketball player at the same age.

Obviously, both players have a long way to go before they are indispensible players on a championship team, but I think Martell has a better chance long term at having the greater impact that way.

I don't believe that's a fair comparison (what I bolded) in some fundamental ways. Martell came in with a more developed game then Travis did. In other words, when they were at the same stage their rookie years martell had a head start.

Secondly, in his first two seasons, Travis only played in 67 games and averaged 12 min/gm. On the other hand, Martell played in 143 games and averaged 20 min/gm...plus martell had a stint in the NBDL.

Furthermore, martell has averaged 28 minutes in his 3rd year, while travis averaged 16.7.

So martell has had a huge advantage in opportunity to this point in his career compared to the same point in travis's career. So comparing those relative numbers skews the analysis out of context IMO.

Now obviously, you can make a point that martell's advantage in playing time was because of his advantage in development, and that tracking comparitive points in their respective careers is accordingly valid.

But at least it's important to keep the context I outlined in mind.

Unless of course, the blazers simply decide to keep both players long-term. And I have no problem with that.

It get's crowded when you add frye and jones to the equation. Especially because it would seem logical to keep someone like frye around to backup PF and occasionall C.

Of course some of that might change if portland goes for a radical idea I was thinking. Some teams like to go 'small ball'. maybe portland can go 'big ball' occasionally. By that I mean the reasoning would be that Oden is agile and athletic enough to move to PF when Pryzbilla occasionally replaces LMA...not there's a thought!

[valleyman33]

-= original quote snipped =-



This is a key point we all have to think about--right now, we're not in the playoffs. Given the teams we're up against, we could very well be back in the lottery, although with a record that would probably make us the fourth seed if we were an East team. As such, we need to think like we're going to be on the outside looking in instead of the other way around because our long term goals are more important than making it this year. Long term, I believe Webster has the higher value for us, while in the short term I think Outlaw has the higher value. If we were only going to make a run at the playoffs this year, I'd say we trade Webster, but since that clearly isn't the case I think Outlaw, as much as we'd like to keep him, just doesn't have the ceiling that Webster does IMO.

Of course, we can always look to sign Outlaw in another couple years for the MLE so he can get a ring if this goes down, since I still think the MLE's about where he will be two years from now (at best).

Well I'm certainly glad this is only your opinion, and IMO not shared by many, including those who count most, the Blazer brain trust!
While it probably is true that the Blazers will have a tough time making the playoffs, what they don't need to do is trade a player like Outlaw, who IMO has an upside as high as anyone on this team.
I believe that the Blazers, to their credit, have assembled an extremely good and effective coaching staff that is really teaching players how to play (ala the Spurs organization). That and Roy

[Fitz303]

so it appears the trade as reported was outlaw-frye-jack-draft pick from portland for harris and bass

And apparently Ric Bucher reported late last night a little different version that was webster-frye-jack-sergio-draft pick for harris, bass, and Fazekas

My take is they are both bad trades for portland. And I seriously doubt KP would consider them. I'm guessing what's being reported is initial proposals out of NJ leaked by Thorn to try and drive up Kidd's price.

Anyway, the frye for bass excahnge: IMO, Frye is better for portland then Bass. I think he's become a bit over-rated by blazer fans wishing for inside muscle. Frye is a better rebounder folks, the numbers confirm that. They're about equal shooters, Bass scores a point more but plays 2 more minutes. Frye has More assists and fewer turnovers. and frye can play C as well as PF. Also, keep in mind that bass was measure at the orlando predraft camp at 6'6.25 barefoot.

This trade would severely impact portland's frontline for the sake of getting a 2nd tier PG.

The other trade still dumps frye for bass, still sends out Jack, but adds webster and sergio in exchange for outlaw. In other words, the blazer backcourt becomes Roy, injured Harris, Blake, and Green....Yikes!

Portland better not send out their 1st round this year in either trade because it will definitely be a lottery pick.

Even if portland doesn't send out a draft pick, either trade is overpaying for Harris and Bass.

Harris is pretty good, and he's probably better then anything else portland could immediately trade for, but there's a line where the cost is too high and both these trades cross it.

Is this a better idea?: it's quite possible that portland will end up in 9th or 10th in the WC standings. That means that portland could have the 13th pick in a fairly deep draft. If they really 'have' to trade a combination of jack-webster-frye-outlaw-sergio-lafrentz, couldn't it be better to trade for a player or 2 while moving up to the 8th, 9th or 10th position?

Where did Bucher report that it changed to Webster and Sergio? I could definitely see that as KP demanding that instead of Outlaw and Thorn holding out because he feels he can do better.

This trade solidifies our backcourt for a long time and gives us a nice 3 guard rotation this year until Rudy comes over next year, and possibly a chance to bring over Koponnen (though doubtful). It alleviates the squeeze that is most definitely going to be at the SF spot. Jones does everything that Webster does, but does it a little bit better. The whole Outlaw cant play SF thing is pretty stupid as well. If Marvin Williams can play SF, Travis Outlaw can play SF, ESPECIALLY if he keeps hittin his 3 pointers the way he has. At this point, hes probably better at handling the ball than Webster. I know Webster is younger, but he was also supposed to be far more NBA ready than Outlaw was.

Bottom line is, KP was never very high on Webster, and was a brilliant move by Tom Penn away from trading him to New York this summer. He has made strides and his value is up. At some point we're going to have to consolidate talent. Hes a good player and I really like him, but if we have the chance to get a PG like Harris for him, there no way you dont pull that trigger.

Bass = Frye (overall)
Harris > Webster, Jack
Fazekas < Sergio

[Fitz303]

I'd miss Travis. As we've discovered, he's one of God's Special Children (tm). But Martell is still by far the more likely of the two to find himself in an all-star game in the future.

On another point: it's easy to think Travis is a much better player than Martell right now because of some of his late game heroics, but look at the stats on the season to date:

Travis: 26.3 minutes, .451 FG% .449 3p% 5.0 rpg 1.5 apg .8 spg .8bpg 13.0 ppg

Martell: 28.3 minutes, .412 FG% .384 3p% 3.9 rpg 1.4 apg .5 spg .4 bpg 10.4 ppg

So far, you can see that Travis is a bit better in just about everything, but not hugely better. But let's look at Travis at the same age:

16.7 minutes, .440 FG% .264 3p% 2.7 rpg .5 apg .4 spg .7 bpg 5.8 ppg

Outlaw averages a far better FG% because he attacks the basket more. His shot has improved better than anyone could have ever expected. The kids shooting 45% from 3!! Give the kid 10 more minutes per game and you dont think he'll be looking at near 20ppg and 7-8 RPG numbers at the SF position? Outlaw actually probably did the best job defending LeBron the other night as well. I just dont see how Webster has more potential. Outlaw is an athletic freak who's forming a jumpshot. I like Webster a lot and Im not trying to say that he couldnt become a very good player in the future, but if you look at what both bring to the table and the potential that both have, I just dont see how you take Webster over Outlaw.