Portland's Off-Season Has Officially Arrived

[Blazers98]

To be clear, I wasn't referring to the theory of Olshey trying to redeem himself, that's completely justifiable.

What I'm comparing to a "deep state conspiarcy" is this idea that's getting traction here about Olshey intentionally trying to sabotage the team from within by disenfranchising the teams stars to the point where they'll leave or demand a trade. That's where we start to reach Alex Jones territory imo.

I think teams do this from time to time. I don't think that is the case here. IMO this lack of depth at the PF and C position is primarily about more PT for our #10 draft pick. A pick we gave up the number 15 and 20 picks for and was a risk to take. Frankly I like what SAC did with those picks and I wish we would have picked up both those guys instead of Collins- time will tell. But I think he really wants to get his "project" big man the PT he needs to develop. I agree that we need to give Collins as much PT as he can handle to at the very least know what kind of player he is in two years when we are at a real crossroads as a team. he is part of the equation there. Myers is a lost cause but Olshey may be hoping beyond hope that maybe this year is somehow different for Myers and wants some more PT to prove it. Sometimes it is hard to let go of the dream and invite reality into our minds. Hard to believe he was a #11 pick once upon a time.

You and I are saying the same thing. This was my point as well. I think our lines got crossed somewhere in my post.

Yes, I was just adding onto the conversation

[Sinobas]

Who is supposed to be our backup PG this year? We let Napier go, and Baldwin hasn't officially made the team yet. I don't understand why they signed Staukas rather than just kept Napier.

[Norm2953]

One would think Turner would be the third PG if Baldwin gets cut

I also don't get the signing of Staukas for I'd bet they could get Bazz to come back for what they are
paying Staukas

[Ripcity4life]

Why would you sign 2 guards in FA then draft 2 in the draft and then give the 2nd round Trent a contract ??

I have to wonder if they might end up trading Nik or releasing him during training cap or something

[HoopsFanAZ]

The draft — BPA. Good job so far. Pending.
Stauskas, at 6’6, and a shooter is the likely PatConn upgrade. We’ll see, but I expect it.
Curry the shooter where Napier really is not so much. Napier is a decent backup PG and played hard, but I like the moves to have several piñata swings. As to Baldwin, he has serious upside but needs (among other things) to work on his 3 pt stroke.

At 3 it’s Turner vs. Mo vs. Layman at this point. Here’s hoping.

[BlazersBroncos]

Sorta a random trade idea that I was thinking about. So given that this team is not going to have cap space for quite some time, and given that other than THJ the Knicks are set to have huge cap space in 2020, what about this deal:

THJ, 2021 Lotto Protected R1 for Evan Turner, Caleb Swanigan.

FOR PDX - We take on a year of THJ but it really wont impact our cap much as we are maxed for the foreseeable future. THJ is flawed, but as a 6th man scorer he could be just what this team needs. Scotts isn't scared to play small ball and a trio of Damian/CJ/THJ could be lethal. THJ struggled with efficiency last season as a go-to scorer, but the year before in ATL is the role he would play here; 24-26mpg and 15ppg. That's the scoring and shot creation we need to compliment Dame and CJ. We get a FRP for taking on an extra year of his deal, but the FRP is set for 2021, a year after NYK likely signs two max guys, so its not quite as valuable (And that's fair IMO) as one earlier. Also opens a roster spot.

PG - Damian Lillard / Seth Curry / Wade Baldwin
SG - CJ McCollum / Tim Hardaway Jr. / Anfernee Simons / Nik Stauskas
SF - Mo Harkless / Tim Hardaway Jr. / Jake Layman / Gary Trent Jr.
PF - Al-Fariq Aminu / Zach Collins / Jake Layman
C - Jusuf Nurkic / Zach Collins / Myers Leonard

FOR NYK - They go all in for cap space in 2020 and kick the tires on a young prospect that doesn't seem to have progressed from his rookie SL. ET can actually be decently valuable as NYK lacks ballhandlers and most of all, his deal expires in 2020, opening an extra 17M in cap space for NYK to play with.

PG - Frank Ntilikina / Trey Burke / Ron Baker / Emmanuel Muiday
SG - Courtney Lee / Evan Turner / Damyean Dotson
SF - Kevin Knox / Mario Herzonja / Troy Williams
PF - Luke Kornet / Mario Herzonja / Lance Thomas
C - Enes Kanter / Mitchell Robinson / Caleb Swanigan

[Masterfully]

Stauskas, at 6’6, and a shooter is the likely PatConn upgrade. We’ll see, but I expect it.
Curry the shooter where Napier really is not so much. Napier is a decent backup PG and played hard, but I like the moves to have several piñata swings. As to Baldwin, he has serious upside but needs (among other things) to work on his 3 pt stroke.

The more I look at Stauskas the more I wished we would have just brought back Pat.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Nik+Stauskas&player_id1_select=Nik+Stauskas&y1=2018&player_id1=stausni01&idx=players&player_id4_hint=Pat+Connaughton&player_id4_select=Pat+Connaughton&y4=2018&player_id4=connapa01&idx=players

Last season their production was incredibly similar. Pat is a little older, but not much. I don't know, but I'm guessing Pat would have been a little cheaper. Pat knows the system. I don't know, I'm struggling to see Stauskas as an upgrade.

EDIT: And last season was Stauskas' best season for efficiency.

[Wizenheimer]

Stauskas, at 6’6, and a shooter is the likely PatConn upgrade. We’ll see, but I expect it.
Curry the shooter where Napier really is not so much. Napier is a decent backup PG and played hard, but I like the moves to have several piñata swings. As to Baldwin, he has serious upside but needs (among other things) to work on his 3 pt stroke.

The more I look at Stauskas the more I wished we would have just brought back Pat.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Nik+Stauskas&player_id1_select=Nik+Stauskas&y1=2018&player_id1=stausni01&idx=players&player_id4_hint=Pat+Connaughton&player_id4_select=Pat+Connaughton&y4=2018&player_id4=connapa01&idx=players

Last season their production was incredibly similar. Pat is a little older, but not much. I don't know, but I'm guessing Pat would have been a little cheaper. Pat knows the system. I don't know, I'm struggling to see Stauskas as an upgrade.

EDIT: And last season was Stauskas' best season for efficiency.

a couple of other things: those numbers from Stauskas are for half of the games that Pat played, while Pat tripled him in minutes. And for their careers, Connaughton has been a better shooter across the board, in 2pt%, 3pt%, FT%, eFG%, and TS%. Pat has also been better in PER, rebounding, winshares/48, Box Plus/Minus, and value over replacement:

http://bkref.com/tiny/53HiU

I had no problem at all in ending the Connaughton experiment, it was past time. In fact, I wanted it to happen. But if Portland needed a shooter, there were/are several players like Anthony Morrow or Brandon Rush available. Both have career 3pt shooting marks over 40% compared to Stauskas at 34.9%.

if the idea is to roll the dice on a young guy who hasn't had much exposure, fine. But Staukas will be 25 when next season starts, in his 4th season, and has started 63 games in his career so he's had opportunity and exposure.

seems like an underwhelming signing, but he will be a back-end-of-the-rotation player at best and he might be optimized in the Stotts offense

by the way, there would have been no difference in cost to Portland or to their cap. the vet minimum for a player with 3 years of experience is $1,567,007 (Pat) and for a player with 4 years of experience $1,567,007 (Stauskas). But, by CBA rule, the NBA freezes the amount the team pays and the amount it's charged on their cap at the level for a player with 2 years of service at $1,512,601. So Stauskas will receive $1,512,601 from Portland and about 110K from the league. If Portland had signed Anthony Morrow who has 9 years of service, his salary would have been $2,176,260, but Portland would have still paid, and been cap-charged that 1.51M

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q22

[HoopsFanAZ]

An article on ripcityproject.com gets into the weeds comparing Connaughton and Stauskas’s 3’s with a tentative conclusion that Stauskas will fit better. It essentially suggests that Stauskas shoots better at the 3’s that fit Portland’s offense.
What tips it for me is Stauskas just plays basketball like he HAS to. PatConn is less intense.

https://ripcityproject.com/2018/07/13/blazers-stauskas-connaughton-threes/

[JasonStern]

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/250682/Isaiah-Thomas-Agrees-To-One-Year-$2M-Deal-With-Nuggets

wasted opportunity to sign another undersized combo guard, Olshey.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Which NBA teams have significant TPE’s? And when do they expire?
Toronto has 2 that expire today and tomottow.

I bring this up as cap space is drying up across the League. 3-4 teams have real room.
Which sites are best keeping track of this information?

[Wizenheimer]

Which NBA teams have significant TPE’s? And when do they expire?
Toronto has 2 that expire today and tomottow.

I bring this up as cap space is drying up across the League. 3-4 teams have real room.
Which sites are best keeping track of this information?

basketball insiders is good at tracking those things. Here's the Blazer page:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/portland-trail-blazers-team-salary/

scrolling down the page a little you'll find the list of exceptions:

Exceptions

Trade Exception (Allen Crabbe, expiring 7/25/18) — $12,969,502
Trade Exception (Noah Vonleh, expiring 2/8/19) — $3,505,233
Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception: $1,703,536 (partially used on Gary Trent Jr. and Seth Curry)

for the rest of the league I can't find a one-stop list, so it might be a bit of work to click thru all the teams:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-team-salaries-at-a-glance/

[wco81]

Bill Simmons podcast briefly discussed Aaron Gordon for CJ.

[Sinobas]

Bill Simmons podcast briefly discussed Aaron Gordon for CJ.

I'd like that deal, just to break up the Dame/CJ Duo. Gordon could start at PF for us.

[Wizenheimer]

Bill Simmons podcast briefly discussed Aaron Gordon for CJ.

what was said?

I have a hard time seeing Orlando paying for CJ & Fournier

[Blazers98]

Bill Simmons podcast briefly discussed Aaron Gordon for CJ.

If we were planning on trading CJ, it would make sense to sign all the guards we have thus far this season.

[wco81]

They think Orlando signed Gordon to be able to trade him.

With all those young forwards, they need a guard who can feed them. Well CJ isn't a PG but maybe they were thinking it would balance the roster more.

They didn't look up salaries or anything.

[Blazers98]

They think Orlando signed Gordon to be able to trade him.

With all those young forwards, they need a guard who can feed them. Well CJ isn't a PG but maybe they were thinking it would balance the roster more.

They didn't look up salaries or anything.

They drafted Isaac last year and he can play PF. He was often injured last year but they seemed to rave about him all the time. Maybe trading Gordon would allow them to develop the Bamba (C) Issac (PF) front court of the future for them. Heck, maybe they trade Vuc to us too.

Augustine
CJ
Fournier
Issac
Bamba

Lillard
Curry or Turner
Aminu
Gordon
Nurk

It would shake things up. Lost confidence in Collins?

[Blazinaway]

Plenty of minutes for Zach as we have a 3 man PF/C rotation with Nurk/Zach/Gordon, Aminu plays some situational PF and he and Hark man the SF spot. It might open a trade of Hark or Aminu - perhaps to get under the tax? Intresting idea, however I think an SF similar to talent level of Gordon is a better trade target

[PDXKnight]

Plenty of minutes for Zach as we have a 3 man PF/C rotation with Nurk/Zach/Gordon, Aminu plays some situational PF and he and Hark man the SF spot. It might open a trade of Hark or Aminu - perhaps to get under the tax? Intresting idea, however I think an SF similar to talent level of Gordon is a better trade target

Who's our sg if curry opts out (likely) after 1 season? Are we trusting in Trent jr to carry that load before he's even stepped on the court in real NBA action (not sl)?

I'm not buying Turner playing well at sg. His shooting is a huge liability so we'd need a very good shooter at sf to make up for all the 3 point production we would lose. I think curry is capable of filling in for that in the short run as he is quite underrated due to being injured for a season (he was scoring 20 ppg before that injury he had) but our only guy locked in over a year is Turner who really doesn't fit our offense at all.

Aminu was a good shooter last season but career averages indicate he probably won't shoot like that forever. Aaron Gordon shoots 3s but 33 percent is a far cry from efficient there