John Hollinger Top Prospects. He does them by Tiers, has some nice insights
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6344540/2025/05/12/nba-draft-2025-prospects-cooper-flagg-dylan-harper/?campaign=13512565&source=athletic_targeted_email&userId=601542TIER 1 - The DudeFlagg
TIER 2 - Electric Guards2 -3
Harper - Edgecombe
Edgecombe was old for a freshman (he turns 20 in July), he faces questions about his long-range shooting and he might only be a one-position player. That said, he has the talent to be special, and I thought hard about putting him at No. 2. Athletically, he has a different gear, blasting off into drives into the paint and elevating with ease at the cup for his finishes.
Edgecombe also shows flashes of being an absolute monster on defense with his lateral quickness and hands, poaching 3.3 steals per 100 possessions in Big 12 games. Edgecombe’s first slide can be a bit sluggish, but he shocks shooters springing off the floor to contest shots with his length.
Edgecombe has a pretty limited handle at this point, one that likely constrains him to playing off the ball or as a secondary creator, and he needs to refine his finishing package off the dribble and at the rim.
However, the Victor Oladipo comparisons here are obvious and the background on Edgecombe is off-the-charts positive. If I had the second pick, my war room would spend a lot of time arguing about Edgecombe vs. Harper.
TIER 3 - Time to get weird4 - 10
Knueppel - Fears - Murray Boyles - Essengue - Bryant - Demin - Kam Jones
Knueppel was second on the team behind Flagg in usage rate and mostly lived on self-created shots. That shot diet included a ton of chances at the rim on straight-line drives; he rarely got to pull-ups or floaters because he was so good at playing through contact and finishing at the cup...Knueppel very nearly went 50-40-90 as a freshman (settling for 47.9 percent from the field, 41.4 percent from 3 and 90.4 percent from the line), but his secondary stats were good too. For a shooting specialist, his rates of steals, blocks and free throws stood out...He’ll be hunted at times...Knueppel’s shot is butter... clear there is more to unpack here in terms of using him off screens at the NBA level. I don't really understand why evaluations like Tre Johnson better; Knueppel offers the same movement showing but appears much better in virtually every other facet of the game. For me, there is a clear drop-off after Knueppel; he’s a lot closer to the Edgecombe/Harper level than to anything after this.
The numbers say that we shouldn’t get out over our skis on Fears; he was massively turnover-prone, shot poorly from 3, missed open teammates, struggled on defense and, based on my in-person eye test, is unlikely to measure 6-4...best plays are just too good to ignore. He’s a slash-and-burn point-of-attack ballhandler who can break down defense with his handle and execute difficult finishes at the cup...easier to take a shot on stardom even if the mid-case scenario is probably more like Jordan Clarkson...drew fouls at a prodigious rate. His 85.1 percent mark from the line also makes it easier to buy that his 28.4 percent shooting from 3 might eventually level out at something close to respectable.
Murray-Boyles will need to change his game at the pro level because it’s unlikely he can play center for more than brief stretches. That will involve developing his nascent perimeter game, getting in better shape and improving his rarely used right hand, among other things...jumper isn’t broken. It’s a push shot from his chest, the release is slow and he rarely stretched out to the 3-point line...hands, in particular, are notable...shows good feel and instincts at the offensive end, both as a finisher and passer...has a role player’s profile. He likely will need an adjustment year at the offensive end... can be a starting power forward if everything breaks right.
Essengue isn't getting nearly enough attention... rivals Flagg as the youngest player in the draft with his December 2006 birthdate...big swing skill will be shooting; he made 26.5 percent from 3 and 70.2 percent from the line this year; obviously, that won't get it done...James Harden-esque free-throw rate (235 free throws against just 213 2-point attempts), an amazing feat for a skinny teen in a physical league...lot of similarities to what the Wizards' Bilal Coulibaly did in France in his draft year, except that Essengue is further along as a decision-maker (he had a slightly positive assist-turnover ratio, in fact).
His freshman year at Arizona started slowly, but by the end, it was clear he was one of the best prospects in his class, even in a low-usage role...he has a limited handle that may consign him to a low-usage, 3-and-D role. While Bryant can get more buckets off cuts, transitions and general energy at the pro level than he did at Arizona, his shot-creation tools are still pretty rudimentary...rest of the package looks ready to go, and he can easily be in an opening-night rotation. Bryant has position size at both forward spots, makes good reads as a passer to offset some of his dribble weakness and has a smooth jumper that he can launch over closeouts...Defensively, his rates of blocks and steals stood out for a one-and-done wing...Bryant’s defensive tape in isolation situations is solid but not amazing; he can be a half-beat slow changing directions but makes up for it with elite closing ability on shooters. The fact that his clips included turns checking guys like Flagg and Edgecombe tells you what the coaches thought.
Demin seemed reluctant to put pressure on the paint and would turn every pick-and-roll into a cross-court pass to the opposite corner, regardless of what the defense did. It’s cool that he can hit the opposite corner reliably in pick-and-roll, but would you please turn the corner once or twice?...still needs to become more aggressive as a scorer and has to work on his shot; he made only 27.3 percent from 3 and 69.5 percent from the line...I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about his defense. He could play a half-step farther off guards than most wings because of his height and length and was able to close late and challenge shots very effectively...players of this archetype are difficult to acquire, and you can play multiples of them at once. Demin can dribble, pass and guard the perimeter; if he becomes any kind of shooting threat at all, he should be a valuable player.
Jones combines plus finishing in the basket area with elite passing, making him either a tricky secondary scorer or a plus bench creator...moved to point guard this season and handed out more than three assists for every turnover...He’s a pure combo who can slot in at either spot...I’d be even more bullish on Jones were it not for his questionable shooting. He slumped to 31.1 percent from 3 this year and made just 67.1 percent from the line in his four-year career...players of his size need to make 3s off the dribble consistently.
TIER 4 - Huge Upside Bets11 - 13
Johnson - Bailey - Queen
Johnson’s profile loosely matches that of many lottery prospects who ended up being crushing disappointments...His highlight reel is a series of tough shots that he’s going to have great difficulty getting off at the next level...athleticism markers were also poor, with low rates of steals and blocks and a shockingly poor rebound rate for a player of this size...defensive tape showed good enough effort but perhaps limited feet, with Johnson giving a ton of cushion to dribblers...profiles as a movement shooter, and you can’t turn your nose up at these guys...displayed some secondary passing skill for when defenses inevitably trap his catch coming off screens. Scouts weren’t overly fond of Texas’ offense, and more of that skill might pop in a different system... hard time getting too high on Johnson and think his mid-case scenario is as a bench sniper, but there's a scenario where the shooting is so lights-out that the other stuff just ends up not mattering.
Bailey came into the year as the third-highest rated prospect according to most evaluators, and man, have they been stubborn in adjusting their priors...managed halfway decent efficiency (53.6 percent true shooting) despite arguably the worst shot selection in college basketball...good plays were mouth-watering. He has an advanced handle for his size, some rim-protection instincts and can look smooth pulling up for his jumper...the fact that Bailey can sometimes make difficult shots doesn’t mean he should routinely attempt them as Plan A. On the flip side, he struggled to get all the way to the cup due to a lack of first-step explosiveness and lower-body strength...Between that and his total lack of feel, he profiles more as a long-term project than an immediate contributor. Somewhere in here there’s a mobile stretch four who can guard one through four on the perimeter and post up smalls in switches, but right now, he’s a half-baked version of Jabari Smith Jr...might want to be his second team rather than his first one.
Queen’s best clips ooze talent, and sometimes with bigs, the tape tells you more than the numbers. He can handle the ball, drop cross-court passes in transition and shoot from a variety of angles. In the half court, he plays almost as a left-handed player, constantly looking to either drive or spin in that direction and finishing comfortably with his left as well...has work to do...showed flashes of being able to guard on the perimeter situationally, but he probably has to be a full-time center at the NBA level. That brings other issues into play, such as his limited rim protection...some of his defensive tape is tragic. While he used his hands to get deflections in some situations against smaller ballhandlers, other times, he was barely there...easier to believe in Queen if he develops stretch capability, but he’s not there yet. He’s an OK shooter from 15 feet who shot 76.6 percent from the line; more range would make his ballhandling threat more compelling, as teams could run through him at the elbows profitably...other issue with Queen is his age. He was born in December 2004. History says that matters; the future growth you might graft onto this one-and-done is a bit less than for some of the others...Queen has tremendous ball skills for his size, but his positional fit questions and lack of defensive chops make it a challenge to slot him into a winning team's rotation
TIER 5 - Some Floor less ceiling14 - 19
Richardson - Saraf - Newell - Philon - Jakucionis - Maluach
The numbers say Richardson is a lottery pick. The eye test? I’m not quite as sure. The guy can only dribble with one hand, had low rates of steals and assists for a player of this size and shot a low volume of 3s for a shooting guard...not sure I can remember a prospect of his size who was so limited with his weak hand. That’s a problem because it makes it extremely difficult to get him point guard reps; he has to slot in as a sniper next to a big wing who can handle...Richardson’s ability to get 2-point buckets at his size stood out...drew fouls at a fairly high rate and hardly ever turned the ball over. There’s a scenario where he’s so efficient that he turns into a really good player despite not having prototype size or a point guard’s handle, similar to Jared McCain a year ago.
Ignore the shooting motion for a second and just look at everything else. Saraf is a big guard who plays hard, defends, makes good decisions on the ball and can run an offense. He's an instinctive player who gets his hands on a lot of balls (2.6 percent steal rate)...It's pretty easy to envision a floor for him as a serviceable backup guard, with a much higher potential ceiling if he can consistently make perimeter shots...I can't get Saraf higher than this because I can't ignore the shooting, a wonky lefty motion that has the benefit of a high release point but is hard to believe beyond that; he might not ever generate more than 30 percent accuracy from distance without some modifications...Getting him to a team with a good shooting coach and cleaning up his release will be critical. It's doubly important because Saraf isn't explosive or athletic enough to be a plus finisher inside the arc; he has to be able to make some jumpers off the dribble to keep defenses honest and leverage his ability to snake pick-and-rolls.
Newell’s biggest draft question is what, exactly, is he? He’s 6-11 but doesn’t have the rim protection or rebounding numbers (just a 14.0 percent rebound rate in SEC games) of a true center. He also doesn’t pop off the floor as a rim runner; you’d call him more “fluid” than “explosive.”...On the other hand, the lefty shows some perimeter skill. He isn’t yet a money 3-point shooter (29.2 percent) or a guy who is comfortable taking more than a couple dribbles... the stroke is repeatable and likely to improve as it becomes a bigger part of his game...his tape guarding the perimeter is pretty good...Sticking with smaller players on the perimeter will be a challenge for him at the next level, but he might be able to handle it...scouts are likely to see Newell as a positionless tweener. Long term, however, there’s a chance he can be one of the rare “Horfords” – guys who are switchable and skilled enough to play power forward in a playoff game but still have enough size to play center. More likely, Newell tops out as a serviceable third big.
Philon isn’t certain to keep his name in the draft...his shot isn’t a sure thing — he shot 31.5 percent from 3 and 76.5 percent from the line...form isn’t exactly encouraging for that number to improve much long term...defensive tape also showed some sluggish first steps laterally, which could hurt him as a point-of-attack defender...He can push the ball in transition and has a pretty solid finishing repertoire once he gets to the cup, plus he displayed a good handle and ability to shake defenders...Philon probably projects as a third guard if he can become a league-average shooter. Maybe that isn’t the most titillating upside on the board, but he also has a solid floor as a tall point guard who can make good decisions.
Jakučionis had top-five buzz at points during the season...Looking at the totality of his season, it’s harder to get super excited. He had very low rates of defensive event creation for a guard, committed a ton of turnovers (6.5 per 100 possessions) with the help of some curious shot-pass decisions and struggled to knock down 3s. The defensive tape in one-on-one defense is … not great...I can make an upside case that he can eventually be a starting guard. Let’s start with the shooting piece; players tell on themselves by how often they launch from 3, and Jakučionis took 9.0 per 100 possessions. Several were difficult off-the-dribble tries, as he loves to shake a defender (especially a big on a switch) and then pull up. Additionally, Jakučionis was very effective inside the arc, shooting 55.4 percent while drawing heaps of fouls...Overall, his combination of handle, wiggle, positional size and ability to read the game, combined with a plus left hand, could make him a potent enough offensive player to offset the defensive concerns. I just wouldn’t make that bet in the lottery.
...for a team in need of quality size, Maluach has a good chance of being a rotation player. While he’s limited offensively because he doesn’t display much feel or low-post game, and his stretch game is still in the developmental stages, Maluach does present a huge lob target who plays hard and is a monster offensive rebounder...Defensively, Maluach isn’t quite the level of rim protector of other centers from recent drafts, sporting a 6.0 percent block rate as opposed to the double digits of guys like Walker Kessler, Robert Williams and Donovan Clingan. However, for a player of his size, he is relatively comfortable guarding on the perimeter, and he hustles changing ends...size like this has been a siren song that has lured many a GM onto the rocks. For me, his most likely scenarios are as either a fifth option or a plus backup, and I’m only willing to go so far on draft capital to get that at the center spot.
TIER 6 - Sleepers20 - 22
Broome - Penda - Lendeborg
Broome still hasn’t received enough respect as an NBA prospect...Broome doesn’t easily check NBA boxes because he’s neither an above-the-square lob-jammer, nor a 3-point shooter, nor an elite rim protector, nor a switchable defender against guards...Instead he’s … just kind of good. Broome is reminiscent of Domantas Sabonis in that he’s left-hand dominant, has great touch around the rim and absolutely destroys smaller players in any switch situation. He also has a good feel as a passer and operator around the elbows, allowing him to facilitate a lot of offense even if he doesn’t directly create it...Broome has long arms, fast hands and catches everything. That’s part of why he’s been a dominant rebounder (19.4 percent in SEC games last year) with outstanding steal rates for a big man and surprisingly strong shot-blocking rates...I can’t believe a player this productive isn’t getting more love as a top-20 pick.
Welcome to my favorite international sleeper. Penda is a 20-year-old combo forward whose athleticism doesn’t pop off the page, but he’s been one of the most productive players in France, with eye-catching rates of blocks and steals. The tape shows a high basketball IQ and good feel as a passer, both important traits for somebody who likely slots in as a role player. Meanwhile, the data shows a productive overseas player with a PER of 16.6 as a 20-year-old in a decent league (though not the best); I'm continually surprised teams don't use this information more in their evaluations, because it has pretty strong predictive value...fly in the ointment here is the shooting. If he can’t knock down perimeter shots consistently, he’ll have trouble establishing a role at the NBA level...till young enough to make considerable progress and his form doesn’t seem irretrievably broken.
Lendeborg was very clearly the best player in the conference...and his game is NBA-ready if he's willing to make the leap...Lendeborg is a big man who can handle the ball in transition and make plays for others, especially in transition. His shooting looms as a weakness – he shot 35.7 percent from 3 on low volume and 75.7 percent from the line last season, and even that seems at the limits of what his form can produce...when he gets all the way to the cup, he doesn't always explode vertically to finish against length. That shooting piece will be doubly important for him since he won't be able to steal minutes at center at the NBA level the way he did in college... there is a lot to like here. Lendeborg is a mobile, multi-positional defender who gets his hands on balls and moves well laterally for his size. He's also an outstanding rebounder for his size who leverages that strength with instant grab-and-goes that generate transition chances at the other end. The ability to handle and pass at his size marks him as rare enough to be worth a first-round plunge.
