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2025 Blazer Draft Prospects

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Walton1one
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#601 » by Walton1one » Sun May 11, 2025 9:01 pm

The thing with Essengue is, he really does not have one standout skill to hang his hat on, it is all theoretical right now.

Outside shooting is a question mark
Limited on ball creativity
Ball handling needs work
Passing limited,
Decision making needs work
Inconsistent rebounding
Defense needs work - Vecenie: not a positive defender, gives up penetration too easily, has trouble with change of pace players
Also, Vecenie: only made 47% of layups (bad # for his size)?
Needs to add weight\muscle - Heard several scouts say he is a a few years away from impact

So you are taking a swing with him, he has no real NBA skill at this point but all the potential is there for him. If he can develop in some of those areas in 2-3? years he could have an impact

From the Ringer:
Essengue will have his zealots. At 18 years old, he is one of the youngest prospects in the class, only three days older than Cooper Flagg. He has the straight-line speed and overall range of motion of a wing but the standing reach of an NBA center. He is about 80 percent limbs, long levered with a high center of gravity. Unlike many projects of his ilk, Essengue has been extremely productive at the professional level, playing on one of the great incubators in the global web of professional basketball. First impressions count for a lot, and there were plenty of folks who caught their first glimpse of Essengue back in October of last year, during an NBA preseason game between Ratiopharm Ulm and the Portland Trail Blazers. It was an ideal showcase for Essengue, who scored 20 points (and hit three 3-pointers) and logged eight rebounds. He showed he belonged, and he hadn’t even turned 18 yet.

But carving out a space in the NBA often requires finding a specialty. It’s not yet clear what that is for Essengue. He has a nose for the ball and a keen sense of when to flash into open space. He’s predictably excellent in transition. His length affords him uncommon angles as a defensive playmaker, and he can cover an immense distance just off two long strides, but he’s as prone to ball watching and zoning out as any teenager. He’s unselfish and often has the correct vision on his reads, but his passes sometimes lack touch or conviction. He shoots, just not very well at all. His rudimentary handle prevents him from being a more effective shot creator, and his frail figure and high center of gravity narrow his pathways to winning mismatches in the post.

Essengue’s most outlier skill at the professional level seems randomly assigned by the basketball gods. For a player lacking much in the way of functional play strength, Essengue invites contact and uses it to his advantage. He has proved to be a foul-drawing machine in the Bundesliga with his obscenely high free throw rate, roughly the same as Julius Randle’s in his lone season at Kentucky back in 2013-14. It made sense for Randle, who has always been a tank—even as a teenager, he was nearly 60 pounds heavier than the Frenchman. For Essengue, who weaponizes his speed in his collisions with the defense, getting to the line entails emulating the kind of rag doll physics popularized in PlayStation games of the early aughts.

None of this is particularly damning. Every concern about his game has a positive upshot in its range of outcomes. In the aggregate, Essengue’s profile could be seen as a huge green flag given his age. But his development will take a patient front office with a clear road map. Essengue certainly looks the part while also demonstrating enough of a framework of skills to leave teams daydreaming. For draftniks of a certain vintage, Essengue’s evaluation is its own kind of comfort food. He is an archetypal prototype.


I'd rather see POR take swings on players who have 1-2+ skills that can translate into the NBA, right away:

Jakucionis - shooting, passing, positional size and on\off ball capability

Bryant - Defense & Outside shooting (the prototypical 3&D wing)

Demin - Passing, unicorn size at position, on\off ball capability

McNeeley - Shooting

Even guys like Clifford, whom I like, what is his go to NBA skill? He does not really have positional versatility at guard, mainly a SG, his outside shooting which is his swing skill is erratic, he has good size for his position and can rebound, but that doesn't really stand out as desirable of an NBA skill as shooting\passing\defense\positional versatility.

There are a lot of players in this class that are theoretical that will be taken in the 1st round, even players with a defined skill that should translate to the NBA have question marks, but they at least have a defined skill to fall back on (higher floor), which for a team needing more talent, POR should not shy away from. There could always be a Jokic taken at #10 or later, but that is a needle in the haystack, reaching for that player at POR pick is not the best thing to do IMO, they can still swing on a player, but swing on a player who if they don't hit their celing, still has a high enough floor that they can be a meaningful rotational player
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#602 » by Norm2953 » Sun May 11, 2025 11:33 pm

Is Noa the second coming of Tidjane Salaun?

Remember most of these guys are 19 years old but my preference is for a guy who will fit with the
guys the team feels are the core for the foreseeable future
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#603 » by Walton1one » Mon May 12, 2025 1:47 am

He certainly seems like this year’s version of him, not to say that Salaun or Essengue don’t turn into fantastic pros, they totally could, but it’s clear that it’s going to take some time with Salaun, and Essengue is similar
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#604 » by Norm2953 » Mon May 12, 2025 2:22 am

I do wonder if Blazers management which seems to want to compete for a playoff spot, would really choose another
Rayan Rupert type or another guy who might be able to play in 2028.

Those developmental types of players likely would be picked by the new Expansion teams in the end.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#605 » by tester551 » Mon May 12, 2025 3:41 am

Norm2953 wrote:Is Noa the second coming of Tidjane Salaun?

Remember most of these guys are 19 years old but my preference is for a guy who will fit with the
guys the team feels are the core for the foreseeable future

Much better prospect IMO.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#606 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Mon May 12, 2025 6:53 am

Coming around on Bryant. He just seems to have the best mix of high floor and pretty decent upside.

I'm still worried about the low production, NBA caliber players should be able to impose themselves in better on the game. I think a bit of Kris Murray who has the talent to do more but ends up floating and not engaged. That's just something that is tough to fix.

But I think Bryant is bigger and longer than Kris. He gives good effort on defense. I don't know that he has the feel or anticipation to be truly elite like what Toumani does, but he has good tools and knows how to use them.

I think the comp I'm coming to is Anunoby, who also had very low production freshman season but a good baseline for athleticism and tools to develop. Not incapable of shooting or putting the ball on the ground for basic moves. If he can develop that he could be a very good player but if not that is still a rotation worthy piece.

Watched a little bit more of Essengue. I still don't know. The best I can say is he didn't really do anything too poorly, which seems underhanded but knowing what you can and can't do is important for young professionals. He made a difference defensively but that looked more to do with him being big and long than him having any particular knack for it. He's one of those guys that I would really want to get a read on his personality before buying too high.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#607 » by dckingsfan » Mon May 12, 2025 3:39 pm

Fingers and toes crossed for tonight! You never know...
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#608 » by Tim Lehrbach » Mon May 12, 2025 4:04 pm

dckingsfan wrote:Fingers and toes crossed for tonight! You never know...


Top two pick changes everything.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#609 » by tester551 » Mon May 12, 2025 4:09 pm

DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Watched a little bit more of Essengue. I still don't know. The best I can say is he didn't really do anything too poorly, which seems underhanded but knowing what you can and can't do is important for young professionals. He made a difference defensively but that looked more to do with him being big and long than him having any particular knack for it. He's one of those guys that I would really want to get a read on his personality before buying too high.

Essengue plays hard (very under-rated talent) and he produces. He leads his professional team in most metrics, as a young 18-yr old.

Yes - his 'skill' level is not refined, and he needs a lot of developmental work on dribbling/shooting/etc. But I do think he has a very high floor with his existing traits.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#610 » by DeBlazerRiddem » Mon May 12, 2025 4:56 pm

tester551 wrote:
DeBlazerRiddem wrote:Watched a little bit more of Essengue. I still don't know. The best I can say is he didn't really do anything too poorly, which seems underhanded but knowing what you can and can't do is important for young professionals. He made a difference defensively but that looked more to do with him being big and long than him having any particular knack for it. He's one of those guys that I would really want to get a read on his personality before buying too high.

Essengue plays hard (very under-rated talent) and he produces. He leads his professional team in most metrics, as a young 18-yr old.

Yes - his 'skill' level is not refined, and he needs a lot of developmental work on dribbling/shooting/etc. But I do think he has a very high floor with his existing traits.


Agree on the high floor, with his body he should have a nice long career in the league pretty much without much doubt. I am not entirely sure what his upper end looks like on offense though, is he a guy who can put it on the floor and get past defenders or pull up and shoot over the top? I didn't see much evidence of either in the brief game bits I watched. He mostly got his buckets by mixing it up and getting to the line, which works because he was generally bigger and more athletic than his competition, but I don't think that will translate as well to the NBA.

In some ways he is similar to Bryant in that regard, but he's also quite different. Bryant pops with regards to the eye test, seems to do a lot of little things well, but his production doesn't match what his ability seems to be. Essengue doesn't pop with the eye test for much, but seems to produce well and is a clear positive on the court.

Hopefully the lottery gods shine on us today and we are picking well before either of these guys, but if not its an interesting comparison between the two. Bryant seems to make more boneheaded moves and get iced out of his teams offense but I feel like he just moves quicker with the ball and has better shooting numbers so easier to see him become a matchup issue for defenses, whereas I think teams dare Essengue to shoot and live with trying to stop him off the bounce.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#611 » by Walton1one » Mon May 12, 2025 6:41 pm

Posted this in the workout thread by mistake. Interesting notes on Bryant, lottery pick, likely Top 10

No Ceilings with some more info on some early entrants

https://www.noceilingsnba.com/p/charting-the-water-get-to-know-players?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=536361&post_id=162706089&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1f5gb9&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

TIER 1 - Potential 1st round picks

Carter Bryant - 1A\B on my board for POR @ #10 (if he makes it there)
Carter Bryant is a player who came into the season with a considerable amount of hype. An RSCI Top 20 prospect, Bryant committed to Arizona—a team that notoriously plays many players in their rotation. Bryant was just seventh in minutes per game under coach Tommy Lloyd. Despite a modest role, Bryant showed himself to be a menace on defense—posting a Block Percentage of 5.8, and a Steal Percentage of 2.8. He made all 17 of his dunks and shot over 37% from deep on 8.4 attempts per 100 possessions. The problem is that we didn’t see as much of Bryant as we wanted, and he only had a Usage Percentage of just 16%. In this class, I don’t see how he isn’t a lottery-level talent; if he is simply testing the waters, though, perhaps his camp isn’t getting the assurance they’re looking for as of now. That said, I’d be shocked to see him withdraw at this stage.


Boogie Fland - Unless he gets a 1st round promise, I would imagine he goes back to school?
Like Carter Bryant, Boogie Fland came into the year with plenty of notoriety. In fact, he ranked 17th in RSCI, over Bryant. Boogie’s situation makes it a little easier to digest him maintaining his college eligibility. His Arkansas team took a long time to congeal, and he missed significant time due to an injury to his right thumb. Boogie did a great job showing that he can do a lot on the ball. Posting an Assist-to-Turnover (A:TO) ratio of 3.7 showed his tremendous patience and processing. His point-of-attack defense was praised routinely throughout the year. Fland did struggle a great deal finishing at the rim—ranking in just the third Percentile at the rim. The shooting was okay. He shot just 34% on his threes—but he ranked in the 97th Percentile in catch-and-shoot jumpers. Boogie is this year’s version of the prospect whose (potential) single season of college ball needs to be taken with a grain of salt, and weighed differently in conjunction with his high school/AAU tape.


Tahaad Pettiford - Same as Fland, I imagine if he stays it is b\c he got a promise from some team
Unlike the previous names, Tahaad Pettiford was not in the RSCI Top 20. He did come in with some buzz, though, and found his way to be trusted on Bruce Pearl’s senior-laden team. He did a great job of balancing leaning on some of the more established players while still showcasing his potent scoring ability. Arguably possessing the best handles in this class, Tahaad ranked in the 85th percentile in dribble jumpers, hitting over 35% on his threes off of the bounceWhile there is work that needs to be done as a passer to reach his ultimate ceiling, Pettiford showed off some slick feeds and ranked in the 78th Percentile in pick and roll plays that included passes. That is identical to his scoring out of pick-and-roll sets. For all the good things he does, Tahaad is small—listed at 6”, and ranked in just the 26th Percentile scoring at the rim. As much as I love Tahaad (I have him 17th on my board), I can understand some of the hesitation NBA teams could have with him. His defense and rebounding numbers aren’t great, either. The feedback is going to be interesting. He may be asked to get stronger, but NBA teams can probably help in that area more so than any university could. We’ll see how teams value his offense and how high he feels he should go.


Thomas Sorber - Potential lottery pick if he stays, but he likely won't be able to workout for teams
Thomas Sorber finds himself in a bit of a positional battle within this class. Derick Queen and Khaman Maluach are considered to be the best big men. Outside of them, Danny Wolf is considered Sorber’s biggest competition for the next best big prospect. After a solid year for the Hoyas, Thomas produced enough to be considered as a Top 20 pick. As a big man, he posted an Offensive Rebound Percentage of 9.5 and a Defensive Rebound Percentage of 21.9. He also recorded a Block Percentage of 7.6—almost a full percent higher than Khaman Maluach. There is also similar potential to Maluach in that Thomas could stretch his shot to three-point range. Sorber is listed at 6’10” and doesn’t have elite, quick-twitch athleticism. He is, however, very strong, and shows some upside with his footwork. Sorber could have teetering value based on positional depth that could have him outside of a Top 20 range—which could be deemed unacceptable based on his talent and upside.


Yaxel Lendeborg - Committed to Michigan, I would assume he gets feedback and goes back, but if a team in the Top 20? 25? promised him, maybe he stays?
Yaxel Lendeborg seems to be one of the more curious cases as the draft moves closer. For the majority of the cycle, Yaxel has felt like a sure-fire first round talent. Now, Lendeborg has announced his declaration for the draft while maintaining his eligibility, as well as transferring to Michigan. That feels like a signal that his status isn’t as clear-cut as many thought it would be. On the year, “Yax” showed a solid up-tick in his three point shooting—upping his percentage to over 36%. That shooting does a ton for his game, which is built upon a fun blend of strength and feel. Yax rebounds very well—which is a skill that can be indicative for NBA success. Along with the rebounding, Lendeborg logged a 2:0 A:TO, which matches the level of decision-making seen on film. Playing for UAB, Lendeborg played in unique defensive positions, which could give pause to his NBA projection. Lendeborg has been getting a fair amount of second round projections from some reputable draft publications, which may be reflective of conversations being had. Worst case, Lendeborg transfers up to Michigan and works with the staff that did wonders with Danny Wolf—who declared for the draft, outright.


Cedric Coward - A real mover in the draft, committed to Duke but may end up staying in the draft
I briefly touched on him earlier, but Cedric Coward has been on the draft radar all season. While that has been the case, his draft stock itself seemingly has been a powder keg waiting until the latter portions of the cycle to explode. What makes Cedric’s situation so interesting is that he played just six games this season. In those games, he failed to score in double figures just twice—but he scored over 20 points in three of those games. After transferring up from Eastern Washington, Coward scored over 17 PPG and shot 40% from deep on 8.5 attempts per 100 possessions. Beyond the shooting, Cedric showed great strength and athleticism. His free-throw rate was over 50, he was in the 88th percentile at the rim, and he had a True Shooting Percentage of 70! Defensively, Cedric has the requisite strength and instincts to be a trustworthy, two-way player. His self-creation is a work in progress, and it’s impossible to know if that would have improved over the season. I always say that the draft is all about noise. The time you make it is vitally important. Should Cedric have the sort of workouts and combine performance many are anticipating, he could absolutely stay in the draft and go in the Top 20.


Tier 2 - Likely to be drafted if they stay

Oweh is on here, he just worked out for POR
If you value athleticism, physicality, and defense, then you must be an Otega Oweh fan. Transferring in from Oklahoma, Otega continued to show off his defensive prowess. Under coach Mark Pope, Oweh had a Block Percentage of 2.1, and a Steal Percentage of 3.1. He is also a very strong rebounder. On offense, he recorded his second consecutive season shooting over 35% from deep. While his percentage dipped a little this year, he tripled his three pointers attempted off the bounce. Because he isn’t the biggest player in terms of height, there could be some projectability problems within the NBA. Listed at 6’4”, Oweh isn’t the strongest playmaker. His handle is fine, but nothing beyond that, and his processing for others isn’t at the requisite level to have the ball a ton in the league. He does draw a ton of contact and finishes above the rim better than some players who are significantly taller. There are some through-lines he shares with some of the better gadget players in the NBA, but that typically doesn’t result in going in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Oweh play the long game—making a decision close to the buzzer to see if he can sneak his way into the First Round.


Mgbako & Chinyelu were listed in Tier 4 Get feed back, go back to school
Coming in at 55 on the $DRFT Initial Player Offerings prior to the season, Mackenzie Mgbako was thought to be one of the better shooting prospects within this class. After a solid start, Mgbako shot under 33% from deep on 10.3 attempts per 100. Mackenzie has a strong frame, which helped him finish at the rim, but he only ranked in the 28th percentile in at-rim attempts. Mgbako has the tools to be a successful defender, but his effort and impact waxed and waned each game. Not only that, but his ability to be a connector wasn’t consistent, either. Still, Mackenzie is strong and has the tools to crash the boards, disrupt on defense, and has the ability to improve as a shooter. Should he withdraw, Mgbako has the chance to get much better at Texas A&M—the school he transferred to in the portal.


You may remember Rueben Chinyelu from Florida’s run in March Madness—one of a few players who made up Florida’s frontcourt. While there hasn’t been much discussion on Chinyelu as a this-year guy, there are some things to like about him as a pro. In just 19MPG, Rueben was about 60% on the floor, ranking in the 85th percentile in scoring at the rim. He had 27 dunks in total, with 17 coming in the halfcourt. Outside of the paint, Chinyelu doesn’t offer a ton of touch. His decision-making is a little underwhelming, having an A:TO of just 0.7 in a system that facilitates looks from bigs to perimeter players. He is nasty on the glass, and he has some rim protection. Chinyelu has plenty of time to improve, and I like the thought of him getting feedback and improving with another year under coach Todd Golden.


Treysen Eaglestaff worked out for POR as well
Treysen Eaglestaff didn’t quite have buzz this year, but there was some humming. Treysen has been a career 37.1% shooter from deep, and he is taking more shots off the bounce to expand his game. The problems come in his game due to his small frame. He isn’t very active on rebounds. He fouls more on defense than he makes the right play. He struggles with contact holistically, though he has made improvements. Eaglestaff also isn’t a strong playmaker for a high-usage guy. His decision to transfer to West Virginia makes sense to get stronger and play against higher levels of competition.


Condon & Byrd - I think both may end up going back to school, will be interesting to see if they stay in the draft
Remember when I mentioned that when a prospect makes noise is important? Alex Condon’s noise faded throughout March Madness. Now this was, in part, due to an ankle injury he suffered against Maryland, but Alex did get outplayed by a few of his Florida teammates. Still, when you take a step back, Condon’s year was very impressive. For a big man, it’s important to do “big man things”. Condon posted an Offensive Rebounding Percentage of 12.5 and a Defensive Rebounding Percentage of 19.3. Aside from competing on the glass, Alex showed very good defensive footwork, blocking shots and showing sound closeout technique. On offense, Condon flourished in Florida’s NBA-esque style of play, working from the perimeter and elbows. Condon could stand to get stronger in order to hold up in a league growing in size and physicality. His jumper is growing, but still not of the utmost reliability. Having time to rest his ankle, Alex could definitely restore his stock that once sat in first round range.


You would be hard-pressed to find another player in this group who had the highs and lows Miles Byrd had this draft cycle. Miles started the season off with a bang, looking very much the part of the mid-major darling among his peers. In his first 15 games of the year, Byrd shot almost 39% from deep on 6.2 attempts per game. His last 15? He shot just over 20% from deep on 5.5 attempts per game. That’s ultimately the swing skill with Miles, as he showed a ton of promise on defense. He was one of only 26 players in college basketball with a Steal and Block Percentage over 4. Within that group, he was the only one who made more than 10 three-pointers (he made more than 50). Aside from that, Byrd converted seven dunks in the halfcourt and showed some solid improvements as a decision-maker. His wishy-washy shooting this season wasn’t great, but he also ranked just in the 41st Percentile at the rim. Being slight of frame, NBA teams would really have to value his very stout defense to take him this season. It’s clear he is an athlete, but the consistency has to get there.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#612 » by Walton1one » Mon May 12, 2025 6:42 pm

Floor & Ceiling on Vj Edgecombe

https://floorandceiling.substack.com/p/vj-edgecombe-scouting-report?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=108382&post_id=163166158&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1f5gb9&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

NBA ROLE: Defense-first playmaker with on-ball upside
REMINDS ME OF: Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo, Amen Thompson with way less advantage creation, Cason Wallace with more hops, Keon Johnson


6'5 (in shoes, 24' Nike Hoop Summit), 6'6 wingspan - Will be interesting to see what his measurements come in at

VJ Edgecombe’s intersection of elite athleticism (he will be one of the best vertical athletes in the NBA), constant two-way production with patterns of growth over time across multiple levels, on-ball flashes, reliable motor, and high defensive floor make him a top 5 and, I think at worst, top 10 pick in the 2025 draft class.


high end outcome, Edgecombe can be a top 3 player on a deep playoff team.
median outcome, the Baylor prospect is a defense-first, off-ball guard who primarily scores in transition and out of catch-and-shoots
lowest end scenario sees the Bahamian swingman not developing his finishing, ballhandling, and maybe shooting enough to be a guard, while also lacking the size and length to truly be a wing.


DEFENSE
key for Edgecombe is how he leverages his first step and hand-to-eye coordination to offset his lack of length.
jumps the passing lanes , blocks from the help side
defensive playmaking pops most off-ball, where he can track plays and rapidly shoot the gap. He’s capable on-ball, but will need more development there.
Can absorb drives with his chest against guards and smaller wings. Can also give up the lane against ballhandlers


OFFENSE
Finishing, especially his half-court layups, is his swing skill.
lacks efficiency at the basket, especially with his layups, where I worry about his touch despite his absurd hang time and compact frame.
fine as a shooter, at least off the catch, dicier off the dribble, with some enticing flashes across all levels and some overall improvement, but not enough consistency.
doesn’t make advanced passing reads, mostly depends on his athleticism to facilitate
Strong positional rebounding
Basic handle which also needs to be tighter does not break defenders down.

53.8 FG% (91/169) at the rim this season. Goes down to 48.9% (43/88) in the half-court.

Can he make convert at the rim when he's not dunking? Lacks soft touch from close range.
Left hand needs to improve.
Tries to avoid contact too often, which is probably because of his very good body control. Struggles to finish vs. verticality
Must keep adding an in-between game if he’s going to struggle with his finishing. Hard to not be enticed by tools and believe he can turn his finishing around.
Improvements to handle, finishing, and passing can really unlock upside.
Optimistic about his spot-up shooting.

36.3 3P% (45/124) on catch-and-shoot threes. 46.7 3P% (21/45) on ‘Unguarded’ threes means defenses can’t leave him wide open.

Dangerous off the catch. If he’s knocking down his catch-and-shoots, will attack closeouts explosively within 1-2 dribbles into dunks and extensions. Same improvements to his finishing apply, although he can OREB his own misses.

Turnovers probably have more to do with his handle than his passing reads.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#613 » by Tim Lehrbach » Mon May 12, 2025 9:06 pm

high end outcome, Edgecombe can be a top 3 player on a deep playoff team.
median outcome, the Baylor prospect is a defense-first, off-ball guard who primarily scores in transition and out of catch-and-shoots
lowest end scenario sees the Bahamian swingman not developing his finishing, ballhandling, and maybe shooting enough to be a guard, while also lacking the size and length to truly be a wing.


This gets the median and low end right but sells Edgecombe's upside short. The skills are not fully developed -- and of course we know they do not develop for all prospects -- but he both processes the game and moves with such impressive speed that the high end outcome has to be an elite player, right?
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#614 » by Walton1one » Mon May 12, 2025 9:24 pm

Measurements (barefoot):

ACE BAILEY - 6'7.5 - 7.0 WS - 202.8#

ASA NEWELL - 6'9 - 6'1175 - 223.8#

COLLIN MURRAY-BOYLES - 6'65 - 7'075 - 239.2#

CARTER BRYANT - 6.65 - 6'1175 - 214.8#

EGOR DEMIN - 6'825 - 6'1025 - 199.2#

KASPARAS JAKUCIONIS - 6'475 - 6'775 - 205.2#

DYLAN HARPER - 6'45 - 6'105 - 213.2#

COOPER FLAGG - 6'775 - 7'0 - 221#

KON KNUEPPEL - 6'5 - 6'625 - 219#

TRE JOHNSON - 6'475 - 6'1025 - 190.4#

VJ EDGECOMBE - 6'4 - 6'75 - 193.2#

JEREMIAH FEARS - 6'25 - 6'525 - 179.6#

DRAKE POWELL - 6'525 - 7'0 WS - 200#

CEDRIC COWARD - 6'525" - 7'225 WS - 213#

NIQUE CLIFFORD - 6'525 - 6'8 WS - 202#

WILL RILEY - 6'825 - 6'875 - 185.6#

DERIK QUEEN - 6'925 - 7'05 - 247.8#

THOMAS SORBER - 6'925 - 7'6 WS - 262#

RASHEER FLEMING - 6'825 - 7'525 WS - 232#

JASE RICHARDSON - 6'025 - 6'6 - 178.4#

LABARON PHILON - 6'275 - 6'625 - 174.6#

DANNY WOLF - 6'105 - 7'225 - 251.8#

LIAM MCNEELEY - 6'675 - 6'825 - 214.6#

ALEX CONDON - 6'1125 - 7.0 3/4 WS -221.8#

MAXIME RAYNAUD - 7'025 - 7'125 WS - 236.8#

RYAN KALKBRENNER - 7'1 - 7'6 - 257.4#

JOHNI BROOME - 6'925 - 7'025 - 249.4#

MICHAEL RUZIC 6'11 - 7'075 WS - 221.4#
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#615 » by Walton1one » Mon May 12, 2025 9:25 pm

Tim Lehrbach wrote:
high end outcome, Edgecombe can be a top 3 player on a deep playoff team.
median outcome, the Baylor prospect is a defense-first, off-ball guard who primarily scores in transition and out of catch-and-shoots
lowest end scenario sees the Bahamian swingman not developing his finishing, ballhandling, and maybe shooting enough to be a guard, while also lacking the size and length to truly be a wing.


This gets the median and low end right but sells Edgecombe's upside short. The skills are not fully developed -- and of course we know they do not develop for all prospects -- but he both processes the game and moves with such impressive speed that the high end outcome has to be an elite player, right?


He measured well 6'4, meaning 6'5+ in shoes
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#616 » by PDXKnight » Mon May 12, 2025 10:15 pm

I hope we shoot for the high risk potential high payoff player. Would like to have a shot at a number 1 option and we need to take a gamble here to increase our odds of having at least one in the roster jmo.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#617 » by Norm2953 » Mon May 12, 2025 10:55 pm

That player still has to fit with the guys the team views as their core players.

Let's say the team drafts Queen at #10. Walton can give us a scouting report but reportedly, he doesn't play
much defense when the team has invested in DC to be their center that protects the basket and has solid
defensive players like Camara, Deni and Thybulle (if he does not opt out).

I'd like that high potential player as much as anyone else but that guy is unlikely to be there at 10, where we
will likely be picking. My pick is still the BPA that is the best fit with this roster. Hopefully that player will be
there at 10
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#618 » by Walton1one » Mon May 12, 2025 10:56 pm

John Hollinger Top Prospects. He does them by Tiers, has some nice insights

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6344540/2025/05/12/nba-draft-2025-prospects-cooper-flagg-dylan-harper/?campaign=13512565&source=athletic_targeted_email&userId=601542

TIER 1 - The Dude
Flagg

TIER 2 - Electric Guards
2 -3
Harper - Edgecombe

Edgecombe was old for a freshman (he turns 20 in July), he faces questions about his long-range shooting and he might only be a one-position player. That said, he has the talent to be special, and I thought hard about putting him at No. 2. Athletically, he has a different gear, blasting off into drives into the paint and elevating with ease at the cup for his finishes.

Edgecombe also shows flashes of being an absolute monster on defense with his lateral quickness and hands, poaching 3.3 steals per 100 possessions in Big 12 games. Edgecombe’s first slide can be a bit sluggish, but he shocks shooters springing off the floor to contest shots with his length.

Edgecombe has a pretty limited handle at this point, one that likely constrains him to playing off the ball or as a secondary creator, and he needs to refine his finishing package off the dribble and at the rim.

However, the Victor Oladipo comparisons here are obvious and the background on Edgecombe is off-the-charts positive. If I had the second pick, my war room would spend a lot of time arguing about Edgecombe vs. Harper.


TIER 3 - Time to get weird
4 - 10
Knueppel - Fears - Murray Boyles - Essengue - Bryant - Demin - Kam Jones

Knueppel was second on the team behind Flagg in usage rate and mostly lived on self-created shots. That shot diet included a ton of chances at the rim on straight-line drives; he rarely got to pull-ups or floaters because he was so good at playing through contact and finishing at the cup...Knueppel very nearly went 50-40-90 as a freshman (settling for 47.9 percent from the field, 41.4 percent from 3 and 90.4 percent from the line), but his secondary stats were good too. For a shooting specialist, his rates of steals, blocks and free throws stood out...He’ll be hunted at times...Knueppel’s shot is butter... clear there is more to unpack here in terms of using him off screens at the NBA level. I don't really understand why evaluations like Tre Johnson better; Knueppel offers the same movement showing but appears much better in virtually every other facet of the game. For me, there is a clear drop-off after Knueppel; he’s a lot closer to the Edgecombe/Harper level than to anything after this.


The numbers say that we shouldn’t get out over our skis on Fears; he was massively turnover-prone, shot poorly from 3, missed open teammates, struggled on defense and, based on my in-person eye test, is unlikely to measure 6-4...best plays are just too good to ignore. He’s a slash-and-burn point-of-attack ballhandler who can break down defense with his handle and execute difficult finishes at the cup...easier to take a shot on stardom even if the mid-case scenario is probably more like Jordan Clarkson...drew fouls at a prodigious rate. His 85.1 percent mark from the line also makes it easier to buy that his 28.4 percent shooting from 3 might eventually level out at something close to respectable.


Murray-Boyles will need to change his game at the pro level because it’s unlikely he can play center for more than brief stretches. That will involve developing his nascent perimeter game, getting in better shape and improving his rarely used right hand, among other things...jumper isn’t broken. It’s a push shot from his chest, the release is slow and he rarely stretched out to the 3-point line...hands, in particular, are notable...shows good feel and instincts at the offensive end, both as a finisher and passer...has a role player’s profile. He likely will need an adjustment year at the offensive end... can be a starting power forward if everything breaks right.


Essengue isn't getting nearly enough attention... rivals Flagg as the youngest player in the draft with his December 2006 birthdate...big swing skill will be shooting; he made 26.5 percent from 3 and 70.2 percent from the line this year; obviously, that won't get it done...James Harden-esque free-throw rate (235 free throws against just 213 2-point attempts), an amazing feat for a skinny teen in a physical league...lot of similarities to what the Wizards' Bilal Coulibaly did in France in his draft year, except that Essengue is further along as a decision-maker (he had a slightly positive assist-turnover ratio, in fact).


His freshman year at Arizona started slowly, but by the end, it was clear he was one of the best prospects in his class, even in a low-usage role...he has a limited handle that may consign him to a low-usage, 3-and-D role. While Bryant can get more buckets off cuts, transitions and general energy at the pro level than he did at Arizona, his shot-creation tools are still pretty rudimentary...rest of the package looks ready to go, and he can easily be in an opening-night rotation. Bryant has position size at both forward spots, makes good reads as a passer to offset some of his dribble weakness and has a smooth jumper that he can launch over closeouts...Defensively, his rates of blocks and steals stood out for a one-and-done wing...Bryant’s defensive tape in isolation situations is solid but not amazing; he can be a half-beat slow changing directions but makes up for it with elite closing ability on shooters. The fact that his clips included turns checking guys like Flagg and Edgecombe tells you what the coaches thought.


Demin seemed reluctant to put pressure on the paint and would turn every pick-and-roll into a cross-court pass to the opposite corner, regardless of what the defense did. It’s cool that he can hit the opposite corner reliably in pick-and-roll, but would you please turn the corner once or twice?...still needs to become more aggressive as a scorer and has to work on his shot; he made only 27.3 percent from 3 and 69.5 percent from the line...I’m surprised more people aren’t talking about his defense. He could play a half-step farther off guards than most wings because of his height and length and was able to close late and challenge shots very effectively...players of this archetype are difficult to acquire, and you can play multiples of them at once. Demin can dribble, pass and guard the perimeter; if he becomes any kind of shooting threat at all, he should be a valuable player.


Jones combines plus finishing in the basket area with elite passing, making him either a tricky secondary scorer or a plus bench creator...moved to point guard this season and handed out more than three assists for every turnover...He’s a pure combo who can slot in at either spot...I’d be even more bullish on Jones were it not for his questionable shooting. He slumped to 31.1 percent from 3 this year and made just 67.1 percent from the line in his four-year career...players of his size need to make 3s off the dribble consistently.


TIER 4 - Huge Upside Bets
11 - 13
Johnson - Bailey - Queen

Johnson’s profile loosely matches that of many lottery prospects who ended up being crushing disappointments...His highlight reel is a series of tough shots that he’s going to have great difficulty getting off at the next level...athleticism markers were also poor, with low rates of steals and blocks and a shockingly poor rebound rate for a player of this size...defensive tape showed good enough effort but perhaps limited feet, with Johnson giving a ton of cushion to dribblers...profiles as a movement shooter, and you can’t turn your nose up at these guys...displayed some secondary passing skill for when defenses inevitably trap his catch coming off screens. Scouts weren’t overly fond of Texas’ offense, and more of that skill might pop in a different system... hard time getting too high on Johnson and think his mid-case scenario is as a bench sniper, but there's a scenario where the shooting is so lights-out that the other stuff just ends up not mattering.


Bailey came into the year as the third-highest rated prospect according to most evaluators, and man, have they been stubborn in adjusting their priors...managed halfway decent efficiency (53.6 percent true shooting) despite arguably the worst shot selection in college basketball...good plays were mouth-watering. He has an advanced handle for his size, some rim-protection instincts and can look smooth pulling up for his jumper...the fact that Bailey can sometimes make difficult shots doesn’t mean he should routinely attempt them as Plan A. On the flip side, he struggled to get all the way to the cup due to a lack of first-step explosiveness and lower-body strength...Between that and his total lack of feel, he profiles more as a long-term project than an immediate contributor. Somewhere in here there’s a mobile stretch four who can guard one through four on the perimeter and post up smalls in switches, but right now, he’s a half-baked version of Jabari Smith Jr...might want to be his second team rather than his first one.


Queen’s best clips ooze talent, and sometimes with bigs, the tape tells you more than the numbers. He can handle the ball, drop cross-court passes in transition and shoot from a variety of angles. In the half court, he plays almost as a left-handed player, constantly looking to either drive or spin in that direction and finishing comfortably with his left as well...has work to do...showed flashes of being able to guard on the perimeter situationally, but he probably has to be a full-time center at the NBA level. That brings other issues into play, such as his limited rim protection...some of his defensive tape is tragic. While he used his hands to get deflections in some situations against smaller ballhandlers, other times, he was barely there...easier to believe in Queen if he develops stretch capability, but he’s not there yet. He’s an OK shooter from 15 feet who shot 76.6 percent from the line; more range would make his ballhandling threat more compelling, as teams could run through him at the elbows profitably...other issue with Queen is his age. He was born in December 2004. History says that matters; the future growth you might graft onto this one-and-done is a bit less than for some of the others...Queen has tremendous ball skills for his size, but his positional fit questions and lack of defensive chops make it a challenge to slot him into a winning team's rotation


TIER 5 - Some Floor less ceiling
14 - 19
Richardson - Saraf - Newell - Philon - Jakucionis - Maluach

The numbers say Richardson is a lottery pick. The eye test? I’m not quite as sure. The guy can only dribble with one hand, had low rates of steals and assists for a player of this size and shot a low volume of 3s for a shooting guard...not sure I can remember a prospect of his size who was so limited with his weak hand. That’s a problem because it makes it extremely difficult to get him point guard reps; he has to slot in as a sniper next to a big wing who can handle...Richardson’s ability to get 2-point buckets at his size stood out...drew fouls at a fairly high rate and hardly ever turned the ball over. There’s a scenario where he’s so efficient that he turns into a really good player despite not having prototype size or a point guard’s handle, similar to Jared McCain a year ago.


Ignore the shooting motion for a second and just look at everything else. Saraf is a big guard who plays hard, defends, makes good decisions on the ball and can run an offense. He's an instinctive player who gets his hands on a lot of balls (2.6 percent steal rate)...It's pretty easy to envision a floor for him as a serviceable backup guard, with a much higher potential ceiling if he can consistently make perimeter shots...I can't get Saraf higher than this because I can't ignore the shooting, a wonky lefty motion that has the benefit of a high release point but is hard to believe beyond that; he might not ever generate more than 30 percent accuracy from distance without some modifications...Getting him to a team with a good shooting coach and cleaning up his release will be critical. It's doubly important because Saraf isn't explosive or athletic enough to be a plus finisher inside the arc; he has to be able to make some jumpers off the dribble to keep defenses honest and leverage his ability to snake pick-and-rolls.


Newell’s biggest draft question is what, exactly, is he? He’s 6-11 but doesn’t have the rim protection or rebounding numbers (just a 14.0 percent rebound rate in SEC games) of a true center. He also doesn’t pop off the floor as a rim runner; you’d call him more “fluid” than “explosive.”...On the other hand, the lefty shows some perimeter skill. He isn’t yet a money 3-point shooter (29.2 percent) or a guy who is comfortable taking more than a couple dribbles... the stroke is repeatable and likely to improve as it becomes a bigger part of his game...his tape guarding the perimeter is pretty good...Sticking with smaller players on the perimeter will be a challenge for him at the next level, but he might be able to handle it...scouts are likely to see Newell as a positionless tweener. Long term, however, there’s a chance he can be one of the rare “Horfords” – guys who are switchable and skilled enough to play power forward in a playoff game but still have enough size to play center. More likely, Newell tops out as a serviceable third big.


Philon isn’t certain to keep his name in the draft...his shot isn’t a sure thing — he shot 31.5 percent from 3 and 76.5 percent from the line...form isn’t exactly encouraging for that number to improve much long term...defensive tape also showed some sluggish first steps laterally, which could hurt him as a point-of-attack defender...He can push the ball in transition and has a pretty solid finishing repertoire once he gets to the cup, plus he displayed a good handle and ability to shake defenders...Philon probably projects as a third guard if he can become a league-average shooter. Maybe that isn’t the most titillating upside on the board, but he also has a solid floor as a tall point guard who can make good decisions.


Jakučionis had top-five buzz at points during the season...Looking at the totality of his season, it’s harder to get super excited. He had very low rates of defensive event creation for a guard, committed a ton of turnovers (6.5 per 100 possessions) with the help of some curious shot-pass decisions and struggled to knock down 3s. The defensive tape in one-on-one defense is … not great...I can make an upside case that he can eventually be a starting guard. Let’s start with the shooting piece; players tell on themselves by how often they launch from 3, and Jakučionis took 9.0 per 100 possessions. Several were difficult off-the-dribble tries, as he loves to shake a defender (especially a big on a switch) and then pull up. Additionally, Jakučionis was very effective inside the arc, shooting 55.4 percent while drawing heaps of fouls...Overall, his combination of handle, wiggle, positional size and ability to read the game, combined with a plus left hand, could make him a potent enough offensive player to offset the defensive concerns. I just wouldn’t make that bet in the lottery.


...for a team in need of quality size, Maluach has a good chance of being a rotation player. While he’s limited offensively because he doesn’t display much feel or low-post game, and his stretch game is still in the developmental stages, Maluach does present a huge lob target who plays hard and is a monster offensive rebounder...Defensively, Maluach isn’t quite the level of rim protector of other centers from recent drafts, sporting a 6.0 percent block rate as opposed to the double digits of guys like Walker Kessler, Robert Williams and Donovan Clingan. However, for a player of his size, he is relatively comfortable guarding on the perimeter, and he hustles changing ends...size like this has been a siren song that has lured many a GM onto the rocks. For me, his most likely scenarios are as either a fifth option or a plus backup, and I’m only willing to go so far on draft capital to get that at the center spot.


TIER 6 - Sleepers
20 - 22
Broome - Penda - Lendeborg

Broome still hasn’t received enough respect as an NBA prospect...Broome doesn’t easily check NBA boxes because he’s neither an above-the-square lob-jammer, nor a 3-point shooter, nor an elite rim protector, nor a switchable defender against guards...Instead he’s … just kind of good. Broome is reminiscent of Domantas Sabonis in that he’s left-hand dominant, has great touch around the rim and absolutely destroys smaller players in any switch situation. He also has a good feel as a passer and operator around the elbows, allowing him to facilitate a lot of offense even if he doesn’t directly create it...Broome has long arms, fast hands and catches everything. That’s part of why he’s been a dominant rebounder (19.4 percent in SEC games last year) with outstanding steal rates for a big man and surprisingly strong shot-blocking rates...I can’t believe a player this productive isn’t getting more love as a top-20 pick.


Welcome to my favorite international sleeper. Penda is a 20-year-old combo forward whose athleticism doesn’t pop off the page, but he’s been one of the most productive players in France, with eye-catching rates of blocks and steals. The tape shows a high basketball IQ and good feel as a passer, both important traits for somebody who likely slots in as a role player. Meanwhile, the data shows a productive overseas player with a PER of 16.6 as a 20-year-old in a decent league (though not the best); I'm continually surprised teams don't use this information more in their evaluations, because it has pretty strong predictive value...fly in the ointment here is the shooting. If he can’t knock down perimeter shots consistently, he’ll have trouble establishing a role at the NBA level...till young enough to make considerable progress and his form doesn’t seem irretrievably broken.


Lendeborg was very clearly the best player in the conference...and his game is NBA-ready if he's willing to make the leap...Lendeborg is a big man who can handle the ball in transition and make plays for others, especially in transition. His shooting looms as a weakness – he shot 35.7 percent from 3 on low volume and 75.7 percent from the line last season, and even that seems at the limits of what his form can produce...when he gets all the way to the cup, he doesn't always explode vertically to finish against length. That shooting piece will be doubly important for him since he won't be able to steal minutes at center at the NBA level the way he did in college... there is a lot to like here. Lendeborg is a mobile, multi-positional defender who gets his hands on balls and moves well laterally for his size. He's also an outstanding rebounder for his size who leverages that strength with instant grab-and-goes that generate transition chances at the other end. The ability to handle and pass at his size marks him as rare enough to be worth a first-round plunge.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#619 » by PDXKnight » Mon May 12, 2025 11:00 pm

Time to see if we screwed up not tanking.
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Re: 2025 Blazer Draft Prospects 

Post#620 » by Walton1one » Mon May 12, 2025 11:01 pm

Will the Blazers be lucky tonight? Even getting into the Top 4 would be great.

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