2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[Walton1one]

So you’re telling me you’re not sold on it?

[dckingsfan]

As far as trading down... I think the most likely targets would be OKC and Orlando.

I don't think OKC wants any of our players - so it would just be a swap of 11 for 15 & 24. This seems unlikely from the perspective of both teams - but I am not overly creative in this aspect.

For Orlando, "I think", "the rumors are" that they are interested in Simons. So, that could be addition by subtraction. 11 for 16 & 25 and some combination of players. I think no.

[Butter]

As far as trading down... I think the most likely targets would be OKC and Orlando.

I don't think OKC wants any of our players - so it would just be a swap of 11 for 15 & 24. This seems unlikely from the perspective of both teams - but I am not overly creative in this aspect.

For Orlando, "I think", "the rumors are" that they are interested in Simons. So, that could be addition by subtraction. 11 for 16 & 25 and some combination of players. I think no.

If the Blazers trade down, I'd be interested in using a 2nd FRP to trade with Chicago.

I don't really care about the protected 1st, I don't think it'll ever convey. But, it would be very nice to free up the future picks.

[Norm2953]

Here is a weird idea, what if POR was trying to move up to #4, if Edgecombe was there.

Would CHA even look at a trade of Simons\Murray & #11
for
Josh Green (2yrs left)
Grant Williams (2yrs left)
& #4

According to rumors, CHA is looking to compete sooner, rather than later. Simons is a compete sooner type of move for them and would fit in nicely with Ball & Miller

Green & Williams are signed through the 26/27 season (about $29mil combined). If they offload Mark Williams for expiring (which they already tried to do) & they strike an extension deal with Simons after the trade, at let's say $25-30mil ($27.5 split the difference), they could have approximately $30mil or so UNDER the salary cap with a core of:
Ball - Simons - Miller - Bridges - (TBD C) - Saluan - Smith Jr - Jeffries - Diabate

They could use #11 to pick up a center (Maluach\Queen\Beringer\Sorber) or even one of their (2) early 2nd's (Kalkbrenner\Raynaud\Broome\Yang\Niederhauser). They have #33/#34 in the draft to pick up some other bench\rotational players for relatively cheap & some interesting 2-way players (Simpson\Moore) they could elevate cheaply

It isn't going to happen, but if POR\Schmitz really liked Edgecombe (and they might), then this could be the type of framework of a deal it would be IMO

I like Edgecombe. not sure I like the fit with Scoot, although Edgecombe's measurements (6'4 barefoot, 193.2 lbs with a 6'7 ½" wingspan and 8'5 ½" standing reach) came in better than expected and there is no denying he would fit the defense first mentality this current mgmt seems to prioritize.

I wonder if Charlotte would pick up the phone if Portland offered up Sharpe + 11 for 4 assuming VJ is there at 4?

[dckingsfan]

I hope there is some roster balance in the off season. Four Cs need to come down to at least 3 (and with Williams not playing, smh).

Simons isn't really a PG. So, I would love to see another PG added and Simons moved.

Then add some shooting.

Draft. I would like to see either a backup PG or 3&D player.

I would like to see one or two of Ayton or Simons moved but I am okay if they just expire or if one of them takes a very team friendly deal.

[Butter]

Here is a weird idea, what if POR was trying to move up to #4, if Edgecombe was there.

Would CHA even look at a trade of Simons\Murray & #11
for
Josh Green (2yrs left)
Grant Williams (2yrs left)
& #4

According to rumors, CHA is looking to compete sooner, rather than later. Simons is a compete sooner type of move for them and would fit in nicely with Ball & Miller

Green & Williams are signed through the 26/27 season (about $29mil combined). If they offload Mark Williams for expiring (which they already tried to do) & they strike an extension deal with Simons after the trade, at let's say $25-30mil ($27.5 split the difference), they could have approximately $30mil or so UNDER the salary cap with a core of:
Ball - Simons - Miller - Bridges - (TBD C) - Saluan - Smith Jr - Jeffries - Diabate

They could use #11 to pick up a center (Maluach\Queen\Beringer\Sorber) or even one of their (2) early 2nd's (Kalkbrenner\Raynaud\Broome\Yang\Niederhauser). They have #33/#34 in the draft to pick up some other bench\rotational players for relatively cheap & some interesting 2-way players (Simpson\Moore) they could elevate cheaply

It isn't going to happen, but if POR\Schmitz really liked Edgecombe (and they might), then this could be the type of framework of a deal it would be IMO

I like Edgecombe. not sure I like the fit with Scoot, although Edgecombe's measurements (6'4 barefoot, 193.2 lbs with a 6'7 ½" wingspan and 8'5 ½" standing reach) came in better than expected and there is no denying he would fit the defense first mentality this current mgmt seems to prioritize.

I wonder if Charlotte would pick up the phone if Portland offered up Sharpe + 11 for 4 assuming VJ is there at 4?

1000% - for Trey Johnson

[tester551]

I don't really care about the protected 1st, I don't think it'll ever convey. But, it would be very nice to free up the future picks.

This makes no sense to me.

What value does 'freeing up future picks' provide?
Especially if you don't think the pick will ever convey...

Right now, Portland can legally include 2 future picks in a trade.
With minimal effort, they can likely get up to 5 if needed.

What opportunities do you think Portland will miss out on because they don't have enough picks available in a trade?

[Butter]

I don't really care about the protected 1st, I don't think it'll ever convey. But, it would be very nice to free up the future picks.

This makes no sense to me.

What value does 'freeing up future picks' provide?
Especially if you don't think the pick will ever convey...

Right now, Portland can legally include 2 future picks in a trade.
With minimal effort, they can likely get up to 5 if needed.

What opportunities do you think Portland will miss out on because they don't have enough picks available in a trade?

Read this article

https://www.blazersedge.com/2025/2/15/24365276/portland-trail-blazers-chicago-bulls-milwaukee-bucks-nba-draft-first-round-pick-swap-lottery-olshey


The trade to the Bulls impacts the Blazers Draft pick for the following seasons

2025 1st (owed to Bulls top 14 protected if 2024 fails to convey)

2026 1st (owed to Bulls top 14 protected if 2025 fails to convey)

2027 1st (owed to Bulls top 14 protected if 2026 fails to convey)

2028 1st (owed to Bulls top 14 protected if 2027 fails to convey)

[tester551]

I don't really care about the protected 1st, I don't think it'll ever convey. But, it would be very nice to free up the future picks.

This makes no sense to me.

What value does 'freeing up future picks' provide?
Especially if you don't think the pick will ever convey...

Right now, Portland can legally include 2 future picks in a trade.
With minimal effort, they can likely get up to 5 if needed.

What opportunities do you think Portland will miss out on because they don't have enough picks available in a trade?

Read this article

https://www.blazersedge.com/2025/2/15/24365276/portland-trail-blazers-chicago-bulls-milwaukee-bucks-nba-draft-first-round-pick-swap-lottery-olshey


The trade to the Bulls impacts the Blazers Draft pick for the following seasons

2025 1st (owed to Bulls top 14 protected if 2024 fails to convey)

2026 1st (owed to Bulls top 14 protected if 2025 fails to convey)

2027 1st (owed to Bulls top 14 protected if 2026 fails to convey)

2028 1st (owed to Bulls top 14 protected if 2027 fails to convey)

So what???
Im well aware of the conditions on the pick.

The 'worst' case scenario laid out is the Portland potentially misses out on a pick swap 3 years from now.

The picked owed to Chicago is a nuisance... but it is not significantly constraining Portland's moves in the next 2 yrs

[Walton1one]

It is essentially 1 pick that’s the difference if POR were to free up their obligation to CHI, especially if they used a pick to do it or (2) if they used a player to acquire that pick, which is like dumping an asset for nothing

Current = 25 (on\after draft day)\one of 29 (Stepian) + 31 = (3) total

If CHI pick resolved by a player turned into pick turned over to CHI?

25/27/29(2)/31
or
26/28/30

Of course that assumes they are trading Simons let’s say for essentially nothing, since you took ORL #16 and then sent it to CHI.

Otherwise what incentive is there for CHI to trade with POR, if not to guarantee they get a first round pick?

If POR really wanted to go in on a trade right now they have plenty that they could leverage 25(#11), 29 (best of) + 31 & 30 swap w/MIL

[Norm2953]

I do wonder if Portland will make a real effort to reach the playoffs for the league seems to be in flux
with the rumors of an active period prior the 2025 draft

Team does have some pieces in place with Ayton, DC, Camara, Deni along their front line along with Scoot,
Sharpe, Simons and probably Thybulle in their BC.

It'd be interesting to see what management thinks what the above pieces need to be in position to compete
for a play in round. I think they could get to .500 with the right moves and some luck health wise with more
development from Scoot/Sharpe.

[oldfishermen]

There is a twist to this off season that is being overlooked. Probably because it does not happen often.

How much affect will the expansion draft have on Cronins stategy this off season?

Nothing is official yet. But these are the assumptions being made at this time.

The next expansion draft may happen after the 26 finals, and before the 26 regular draft. A liitle over one year from today.

Each team can protect 8 players. This is where strategy comes into play...Which 8 players and how to keep as much player assets as possible?

It is unclear if FAs can be protected? Will this affect who Cronin extends and protects?

Only one player per team can be drafted. But I am not sure that means we can lose one or two players, since two teams will be drafting.

As of today, I only see 5 players under contract we should protect, and hope Grant gets drafted.

So, what ideas come to mind that will get us the best 8 players going into the 26/27 season. A consolidation trade? Trade picks for future picks? Or what trick do you have up your sleeve?

Combining the impact of the new CBA, very limited cap space to sign FAs and extend players, plus dodging the expansion draft. This should be a very interesting offseason.

[oldfishermen]

Just had a crazy idea.

What if Cronin sets up the contracts so we have 9 signed players at the end of the season . Protect 8 of them, and leave Grant as the only unprotected Blazer player eligible to be drafted.

[Norm2953]

Expansion team would simply take whoever is player 10-14 on the roster or the Trendon Watford's of the world

[Case2012]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=GameTheoryPodcastw%2FSamVecenie

[oldfishermen]

Expansion team would simply take whoever is player 10-14 on the roster or the Trendon Watford's of the world

Good point, But.

None of the those Blazers have contracts after the 25/26 season (So far). If the expansion team drafts one of them, does the expansion team have protection if the player decides to play overseas?

[dckingsfan]

Watch on YouTube

The lead is Deni/Camara/Clingan and the defense. They nailed it.

The question is how to build around that next year.

Thybulle is the next guy up. 3&D in a big way. I would like to keep him for sure. He fits. But you need to get a really good team friendly contract.

Can Scoot be part of the solution (their words - oldfiher guys words as well)?

One thing that they didn't bring up is that Simons/Scoot/Sharpe is a really bad rotation.

They bring up you need to move one of Simons/Sharpe or both. I would agree with both. Pretty sure Walton1one has said this many times. It is a duh no brainer to let them walk.

They brought up that they missed the window to trade Simons and Ayton. That is another duh!

Their conclusion: run it back and then clean up the roster by letting the vets expire + Carter Bryant. That is their home run for the Blazers - good for them.

[Wizenheimer]

Their conclusion: run it back and then clean up the roster by letting the vets expire + Carter Bryant. That is their home run for the Blazers - good for them.

I've lost patience with all these 'solutions' that just assume Cronin will allow Simons & Ayton to walk. My hunch is that he probably wants to re-sign both but will very likely re-sign at least one, probably Simons. I wouldn't be surprised at all by an extension for Simons this summer

really hope I'm wrong

[dckingsfan]

Their conclusion: run it back and then clean up the roster by letting the vets expire + Carter Bryant. That is their home run for the Blazers - good for them.

I've lost patience with all these 'solutions' that just assume Cronin will allow Simons & Ayton to walk. My hunch is that he probably wants to re-sign both but will very likely re-sign at least one, probably Simons. I wouldn't be surprised at all by an extension for Simons this summer

really hope I'm wrong

Me three...

[Walton1one]

Read on Twitter

Surprising, this really could be a wild draft this year, and I will be missing it