Draft prospects @ 10

[Goldbum]

^^^^ I agree for the most par, but don't think we will be able to draft him. The Blazers are on track to drastically exceed pre season expectations and win close to 40 games. If that happens our pick will be conveyed to CHA.

[Norm2953]

I'd oddly enough be more than happy to give our pick to the Bobcats. The 2014 draft
is looking to be much deeper, especially at the top.

[Wizenheimer]

^^^^ I agree for the most par, but don't think we will be able to draft him. The Blazers are on track to drastically exceed pre season expectations and win close to 40 games. If that happens our pick will be conveyed to CHA.

the only reason the Blazers appear to be exceeding expectation is a 7-3 record in their last 10 games, which is almost certainly the softest part of the schedule this year

But 6 of those games have been at home, and only 3 of the teams they played have winning records. 7 of the games came against Cleveland, Charlotte, Sacramento, Toronto, New Orleans, and Phoenix. Those teams combine for a 46-119 record, a .279 winning percentage. Portland grabbed a win from San Antonio, but for some reason, the Blazers just match-up well with the Spurs, and both games against San Antonio have been at home. That will even out in March

5 of the next 7 games, and 7 of the next 12 games are on the road. And home games in that stretch include OKC and Miami. And there are 4 back-to-backs in that 10 game stretch....ouch!

as the season wears on and the schedule gets tougher, it's almost certain the heavy minutes the starters have been playing will become a burden. I believe they have 11 or 12 back-to-back sets ahead on the schedule. Also, they have 5 game and a 4 game Eastern Conference road trips ahead of them as well as a 6 game road trip that starts in Minnesota, goes through two games in Texas and two in Florida with a final stop in the Big Easy.

I was predicting 31 wins this year, but that may have been a little low because Lillard, Batum, & Matthews are all playing better then I thought they would. However, I think mid-30's is still about the best they'll do. Any extended injury for a starter will crush the Blazers, especially if he misses a lot of road games. And I'd anticipate a little higher rate of missed games then we have seen so far

[Norm2953]

There's an interesting discussion on Drummond on the general board for given
what we know now, imagine where we would be if we had traded up ahead of
the Pistons to get Drummond and Lillard in the 2012 draft.

[DusterBuster]

There's an interesting discussion on Drummond on the general board for given
what we know now, imagine where we would be if we had traded up ahead of
the Pistons to get Drummond and Lillard in the 2012 draft.

I will continue to believe the Blazers would have had a chance to move up from #11 to #8 if they would have really tried. There's no good reason why they couldn't have outside of a lack of effort on the Blazers part of poor management on the Raptors part. Terrance Ross was a huge stretch at #8 and unquestionably would have been available at #11. It shouldn't have taken a huge impact player to convince them to swap picks at those posts. Ross was on no other teams radar in that range. Some seconds, some euro prospects, a little cash..... Something to swap those picks and get Drummond would have been absolutely amazing.

[Wizenheimer]

There's an interesting discussion on Drummond on the general board for given
what we know now, imagine where we would be if we had traded up ahead of
the Pistons to get Drummond and Lillard in the 2012 draft.

I will continue to believe the Blazers would have had a chance to move up from #11 to #8 if they would have really tried. There's no good reason why they couldn't have outside of a lack of effort on the Blazers part of poor management on the Raptors part. Terrance Ross was a huge stretch at #8 and unquestionably would have been available at #11. It shouldn't have taken a huge impact player to convince them to swap picks at those posts. Ross was on no other teams radar in that range. Some seconds, some euro prospects, a little cash..... Something to swap those picks and get Drummond would have been absolutely amazing.

maybe yes, maybe no

there was some stuff quoted on the Toronto board indicating Raptor management was unsure who they were going to draft even as late as after the draft had begun. If that's true, it may have been difficult to work out a deal with a confused front office

for all we know, the Blazers could have tried to move up but the only asset they had to dangle was their upcoming cap-space and Toronto was insisting on Portland taking back Calderon or Linas Kleiza

I'm all for condemning the decisions of the front office...I've done it plenty myself...but this criticism would require 3 or 4 leaps of faith, not just one

by the way, it could be that Portland did talk to Toronto and the #1 player on their board was Damien Lillard. Did you ever consider that?

[GreenRiddler]

by the way, it could be that Portland did talk to Toronto and the #1 player on their board was Damien Lillard. Did you ever consider that?

Exactly, Why would they help us when we take the one player they are able to get is already chosen by us? we would have to have talked to them between the & GSW pick and there pick that's about 9 minutes to make a trade happen.

[GreenRiddler]

I actually think Ben Mclemore would do exceptionally well for us. I think he'll be a top 3-5 pick for sure though he really reminds me of Bradley beal but more explosive. I just don't think his ceiling is that higher than We$ and he does a lot that We$ does. We need someone who can create for himself and others, break down teams like Shabazz or another good big who can block shots and be a good offensive threat Like Alex Len. That's who I got on our big board anyway.

[GreenRiddler]

I actually think Ben Mclemore would do exceptionally well for us. I think he'll be a top 3-5 pick for sure though he really reminds me of Bradley beal but more explosive. I just don't think his ceiling is that higher than We$ and he does a lot that We$ does. We need someone who can create for himself and others, break down teams like Shabazz or another good big who can block shots and be a good offensive threat Like Alex Len. That's who I got on our big board anyway.

Don't take my word for it though.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzufDLiYTNc&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[GreenRiddler]

And those who say "we should just give Charlotte our pick this year because it's a weak draft and 2014 is stronger" Know not of what they speak.

[Norm2953]

Actually I'm quite familiar with the 2014 draft for needless to say, there are no players on
the level of Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker in the 2013 draft.

[GreenRiddler]

Actually I'm quite familiar with the 2014 draft for needless to say, there are no players on
the level of Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker in the 2013 draft.

That's because either of those guys have played in college or overseas? Come on your evaluating kids. They did the same to Harrison Barnes and he ain't lighting up the league. All I am gonna say is that people always say oh this is a bad year to suck it a horrible draft and Kyrie Irving ends up looking like a top 3 PG. And on the other hand people say that this draft is so strong I am glad we sucked this year, and then you have Corey brewer stinking up your bench.

I am not saying this draft is better than 2014 I am saying it is impossible to determine that for 3-4 years.

I mean how can you even say that when the best player so far out of this draft was projected to go in the 2nd round? Our very own R.O.Y

[GreenRiddler]

Noel
Shabaaz
Len
Smart
Otto Porter
Mclemore
Archie Goodwin
Alex Poythress
BJ young
CJ McCollum
Cody Zeller
Tony Mitchell
Michael CarterWilliams
Steven Adams
Anthony Bennett
James McAdoo
Isaiah Austin
In what aspect is that a weak draft? At the top? Bottom rung? Overall?

[RipCity71252]

I kinda like where Portland projects to be in the draft this year (9-11th pick) The talent at the very top doesn't seem to be amazing and I think the value in this draft starts right around where Portland starts picking.

If we don't trade the pick (which I would be fine with) I would have to think Portland is thinking guard.

Archie would be ideal as he's an athletic ball handler that can get to the rim and is great in transition, but I think he goes high. Like top 3 high.

McLemore is nice but I don't think he's a great fit. You'd be waiting for a couple years on a guy that's going to bring a lot of what Matthews brings already with better athleticism.

My favorite (realistic) choice is C.J. McCollum. Another small school star with a very mature scoring game and sneaky good defenxe. If Matthews is indeed a part of the long range core of the team, I think C.J. fits nicely with him and Dame. Creative ball handler that can swing at both guard positions and score from day one off the bench.

[Norm2953]

Actually I'm quite familiar with the 2014 draft for needless to say, there are no players on
the level of Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker in the 2013 draft.

That's because either of those guys have played in college or overseas? Come on your evaluating kids. They did the same to Harrison Barnes and he ain't lighting up the league. All I am gonna say is that people always say oh this is a bad year to suck it a horrible draft and Kyrie Irving ends up looking like a top 3 PG. And on the other hand people say that this draft is so strong I am glad we sucked this year, and then you have Corey brewer stinking up your bench.

I am not saying this draft is better than 2014 I am saying it is impossible to determine that for 3-4 years.

I mean how can you even say that when the best player so far out of this draft was projected to go in the 2nd round? Our very own R.O.Y

Most of these HS kids have played against each other in AAU ball and a player like Wiggins is going to be
a big star. Parker who is headed to Duke is another elite talent but according to the scouts, Wiggins is the best prospect not in the NBA.

Just take a look at the players in this draft. Muhammad (UCLA) hasn't played like the elite player he was supposed to be and Noel is nowhere near Anthony Davis as a prospect. There seem to be a lot of young bigs but we already have one project big in Meyers Leonard and don't need another. There is nobody on the level of Davis in the 13 draft and a young player like McLemore is still behind Bradley Beal. If Drummond had stayed in school, he'd be the first pick in this draft.

[Big_C_KU]

I actually think Ben Mclemore would do exceptionally well for us. I think he'll be a top 3-5 pick for sure though he really reminds me of Bradley beal but more explosive. I just don't think his ceiling is that higher than We$ and he does a lot that We$ does. We need someone who can create for himself and others, break down teams like Shabazz or another good big who can block shots and be a good offensive threat Like Alex Len. That's who I got on our big board anyway.

Don't take my word for it though.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzufDLiYTNc&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

I'll say this about the video. His negative parts of his game they had to really search for bad film of him on defense. While he's not a shutdown defender he's no where near as bad of a defender as the video suggested. He also has great form on his pull up jumper inside the 3 point line. Gets great height and consistent form. It's when he pulls up outside the 3 point line off a dribble or two that he gets inconsistent some. Many of his missed shots in the video were in and out and vs Ohio State last week he was 3-4 on pull up jumpers. He does struggle getting all the way to the basket and finishing at the rim right now but those are areas that can easily be improved.

[TBpup]

Tonight's game might be a bigger game than first thought. Why? Because Philly is one of the few teams in the East that might not make the payoffs but could still finish with a record above the Blazers to determine draft positioning. The rest of the conference is garbage and with Portland not eligible for the #13 and worse picks, they have to finish at #12 or better and given the amount of bad teams out there, it will be a tight fit.

CURRENT STANDINGS: (If playoffs/draft positioning started today)Portland
L.A.
Minnesota
Utah
Philly
Orlando
Dallas
Dumpster Fire of Phoenix, Sacramento, Toronto, Detroit, Charlotte, Cleveland, N.O., Washington.

How many even die-hard Blazer fan thing that the Lakers, Jazz and T-Wolves won't pass the Blazers? That would put Portland at #12 (the last eligible spot for them) just in front of Philly. The drop from the #11/12 spot to Orlando range is pretty significant. When Dirk returns, Dallas might catch Portland but that leaves #10 as about the highest Portland could get on the draft board.

So players in the 10-12 range or say projected from 8-14 (with room for falling/moving up) is where we should be looking. After Philly, the Blazers have 4 games in 5 nights on the road (1-3, maybe 2-2), then return home to play against Orlando (W), Miami (L), @ Golden St (L), OKC (L) and @ Denver (L) before the schedule lets up. Portland could easily go from their current 14-14 to something aound 16-22 or 17-21 in just a coupl weeks time and settle in to a more likely scenario for where they will end the season.

So the current projection of Archie Goodwin, Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore, Mason Plumlee, James McAdoo,Tony Mitchell, McCollum/Carter-Williams is where we should be focusing....and rubbing the rabbit's foot something serious for a shot at getting lucky and movig up.

[DusterBuster]

I'm still holding out hope the Blazers pay off the pick debt to Charlotte this season, so I hope they can end up with a pick #13 or below. This is a fairly weak draft, it's a great time to get this debt paid off so the Blazers don't have to worry about it anymore.

[Wizenheimer]

I'm still holding out hope the Blazers pay off the pick debt to Charlotte this season, so I hope they can end up with a pick #13 or below. This is a fairly weak draft, it's a great time to get this debt paid off so the Blazers don't have to worry about it anymore.

there's no way to say which year would be the best time to get rid of the obligation.

Portland might end up with the steal of this draft at 8 or 9 or 11. Or maybe even pull a Chicago and leap into the top-3. It's unlikely this draft will be as weak as the historically bad 2006 draft, and that draft Rudy Gay (8), Rajon Rondo (21), Kyle Lowry (24), and Paul Millsap (47), besides Roy & Aldridge

select well in the draft, use their cap-space well, and get good development from their young players and rookies, and their pick next season could be out of the lottery

I still think people are whistling into the wind if they are expecting the Blazers to end up 13th or later this year. Portland has had one of the softest schedules in the league to this point. They've had a bunch of games against the Sacramento's and Charlotte's of the world. They are about to have a whole slew of games against the OKC''s, NY's, Memphis's and Miami's of the world. You know, teams the caliber of the Lakers and we saw last night how competitive Portland was against them

in 2010/11: 30 wins was the 7th pick; 33 wins the 9th pick; 35 the 10th pick; & 39 wins got the 13th pick

in 2009/10: 37 wins would have been the 11th pick, and it took 40 wins to fall to the 13th pick

Portland has 54 games left. Just 5 games under .500 puts them at 36 wins. 8 games under .500 puts them at 33 wins. Less wins then that range sure seems more realistic then more

[DaVoiceMaster]

While a lot of fans have been excited lately to see the Blazers sitting at .500, I really can't imagine many of them thinking it will last. I don't recall seeing anyone predict the Blazers winning more than 35-38 games this season. There are always ups & downs during a season and lately has been an up, but we know the down is coming! I say we should be excited when we can cuz I think there will be a whole lot more disappointment this season than excitement. I think the Blazers will finish somewhere in that 10-14 window. They won't be good, but they won't be bad either. Injuries and/or a trade could change all of that though (one way or the other... most likely, the other).