tank thread

[Goldbum]

I wonder if the Pels pick ends up at 10 if we could package 10 + 38 for 13 and 14...add 57 to 13 and the TPE for Grant. Then select Griffin(or Sharpe) and Eason. That would be a draft night for the ages.
Another thought let's say we end up at 4 and the 3 premier bigs are gone we could pick Ivey and trade Dame. If that happens all of a sudden Hart and Winslow have to be on the table too. That's a nuclear option but one that should be.considered. Ivey + Murray and whatever we get for Dame makes this a team built in Chauncey's image.

[BlazersBroncos]

Arent 13+14 owned by different teams?

Not sure why Murray fits the image of a Chauncey team. He is a position locked (PF) offensive first guy who has some defensive questions. Real big shades of Tobias Harris IMO, albeit that isnt a bad thing in the 6-8 range.

[Myth]

I want to know why the one time we need Lakers to win (Because of Pelicans pick), they suck beyond belief.

[Sactowndog]

The next 11 games will be interesting. They play San Antonio 3 times, Houston twice, New Orleans twice, Oklahoma City twice, Detroit & Indiana before ending the season against Dallas and Utah. The Blazers will be tested to see if they can actually lose most of those games. It might be difficult to pull off.

The Blazers finally get a fluff end of season schedule, but can't take advantage of it.

I foresee a sudden injury to Josh Hart

Funny how that happens.

The interesting thing is OKC went this route last year and had amazing bad luck in the lottery. Don’t be shocked if Silver pulls all your combinations and you get jumped by a team or two.

[Moonbeam]

It's been fascinating seeing the lineups Portland has been putting on the floor. Given how long it has been since Portland has had a season where they have stopped trying to compete, it feels like a weird place to be in hoping for losses instead of wins. It would be great to get to #6 at least as that is the slot where the Blazers have gotten Brandon Roy and Damian Lillard (ok, also Martell Webster).

[Norm2953]

The next 11 games will be interesting. They play San Antonio 3 times, Houston twice, New Orleans twice, Oklahoma City twice, Detroit & Indiana before ending the season against Dallas and Utah. The Blazers will be tested to see if they can actually lose most of those games. It might be difficult to pull off.

The Blazers finally get a fluff end of season schedule, but can't take advantage of it.

I foresee a sudden injury to Josh Hart

Funny how that happens.

The interesting thing is OKC went this route last year and had amazing bad luck in the lottery. Don’t be shocked if Silver pulls all your combinations and you get jumped by a team or two.

How soon we all forget what Terry Stotts always said about being honest with the game for the teams rhat are blatantly tanking, never seem to be rewarded.

[Norm2953]

What is the +/- on how many points CJ is going to score tomorrow night (assuming he plays)

[Wizenheimer]

How soon we all forget what Terry Stotts always said about being honest with the game for the teams rhat are blatantly tanking, never seem to be rewarded.

if he said that he's a fool. Many teams have been rewarded for tanking. That's how the Spurs got Duncan and 5 championships. That's how Cleveland got Lebron. How the 76ers got Embiid & Simmons. How Memphis got Morant. It's how New Orleans went from a 46 win team to a 21 win team and got AD. For that matter, it's how Portland got Walton and their one title

there are many ways to tank and a most common one is the route Portland took this year: trade away high priced veteran role players that were getting the team nowhere, and trade them for picks and cheaper role players. Lose more games and increase lottery odds. I don't see anything at all wrong with that and all the croaking about tanking is just noise. Teams always try to maximize the assets they have. One of the best assets Portland has right now, and has had since the trade deadline, is the opportunity for not only a top-10 pick but a top-4 pick.

Winning games in this abortion of a season is completely meaningless. Any win subtracts from that 'best asset' and that would be idiotic. There is no such thing as tanking karma that will bite Portland in the ass. What has bitten Portland in the ass was a decade of olshey-mismanagement. Cronin has been trying to dig out of the olshey-egohole. Arguably, he could have done a better job of it than he has, although I do suspect some Seattle interference in that Clippers trade.

yes, it has all been a gamble, or maybe better said a series of connected gambles. But I do not think Portland was risking much at all in trading away CJ-Norm-RoCo-Nance. Those guys, and their salaries, were flat-lining Portland's trajectory. None are core pieces for a contender. Portland has opportunities now that they didn't have in January. They will have either a 32% or 37% chance at a top-4 pick depending on what happens with the Kings. They have a decent chance at a pair of top-10 picks; they have 30M in TPE's that could convey good leverage in the off-season and great leverage heading into next season's trade deadline.

IMO, there were only 2 choices for Portland: one was stay with the status-quo. Give Olshey yet another season, next season, to ride the Dame-CJ-Norm-mini-me debacle to another 1st round exit. Or fire olshey's ass and go for an option like the one they are engaged in now. Blazers have to re-sign Simons and Nurk this summer. How much is that going to cost, 1st year? 40M. Well, that is manageable with 75M invested in Dame-Hart-Winslow-Little-two-first's. It's not manageable with 120M invested in Dame-CJ-Powell-Nance-Little

I really have no clue why people get upset with tanking. When it's another team doing it while yours is fighting for the playoffs it's an easy win. When it's your team doing it you want to maximize lottery odds. There is no purity in sports, especially in the pros.

[Norm2953]

Tell that to the OKC Thunder poster who just wrote the Thunder did exactly what Portland is doing this season
which is blatantly tanking and they got dropped down to six. Very few teams are brazen enough to tank to the
extent to hold out any guy who might help the team win a game.

We'll all find out if it worked at the draft lottery. It worked for Portland in 2013 when Portland lost their last
10 games to be in position to draft CJ.

[BlazersBroncos]

Tell that to the OKC Thunder poster who just wrote the Thunder did exactly what Portland is doing this season
which is blatantly tanking and they got dropped down to six. Very few teams are brazen enough to tank to the
extent to hold out any guy who might help the team win a game.

We'll all find out if it worked at the draft lottery. It worked for Portland in 2013 when Portland lost their last
10 games to be in position to draft CJ.

There is luck involved in tanking, its why the lotto exist. OKC just had really, really bad luck last season. Albeit Giddey isnt anything to scoff at. I would be ecstatic if we got a Giddey level guy with our higher pick.

[Ducklett]

Hi everyone! Magic fan here. We have had notoriously bad luck in the lotto for the last decade so I come to you curious about the most "likely" scenario in the draft and what you guys think. When the Magic fall to 4 or 5 and you guys have 7 and 11, would you use those two picks to trade up into the top 4/5?

[DusterBuster]

Hi everyone! Magic fan here. We have had notoriously bad luck in the lotto for the last decade so I come to you curious about the most "likely" scenario in the draft and what you guys think. When the Magic fall to 4 or 5 and you guys have 7 and 11, would you use those two picks to trade up into the top 4/5?

I would, I don't think the Blazers would. I think they have a pre-determined deal lined up with Detroit for Grant. If they have both picks, I think they move the lower of the two to Detroit for Grant. If the Blazers lose out on the Pels pick (very likely imo) and their own pick sticks at the 7-9 range, I think they move that one out for Grant and don't get any rookies this year.

Again, this is not something I personally would do, but I think it's the most likely scenario given what we've heard over the last few months and reading between the lines.

[Goldbum]

I think it would have to be Chet or Jabari for Portland to consider moving both picks.

[BlazersBroncos]

I think it would have to be Chet or Jabari for Portland to consider moving both picks.

I have added Paolo to that list, but ya I agree.

And on the other side, no team (IMO) is moving one of those 3 for our two lower picks.

Consolidating to move up just doesnt seem feasible.

[Norm2953]

Portland if they lose out will have the sixth pick prior to the actual lottery. The 6 spot is an interesting
position for with the three 6-10 players, Ivey and perhaps Murray in the top 5, that leaves Portland with
their choice of a group of players including AJ Griffin(Duke) who might be the best SF to play for Portland
since Batum.

[Goldbum]

Just simmed the Lotto on Tankathon.com
Blazers with Jabari and Duren. Please oh please make it so.


So if we miss out on the Pels pick would those of us interested in Grant (I'm waffling back and forth) be willing to include Keon (with the future pick it turns into)to get it done? I think that kid would look fantastic long term next to Motor Cade...

[Wizenheimer]

Tell that to the OKC Thunder poster who just wrote the Thunder did exactly what Portland is doing this season
which is blatantly tanking and they got dropped down to six. Very few teams are brazen enough to tank to the
extent to hold out any guy who might help the team win a game.

We'll all find out if it worked at the draft lottery. It worked for Portland in 2013 when Portland lost their last
10 games to be in position to draft CJ.

OKC was not the only team tanking last season? By the last third of the season, 7-8 teams were engaged in some level of tanking. That happens every year. It's happening this year. Right now, 9 teams have no realistic chance of making the play-in games. So then, what is the payoff for any of those teams to win games? The only result is worse lottery odds

I don't care what some random OKC poster is saying. What I know is that this is the injury report for OKC right now:

Darius Bazley Out For Season (Knee) -
Luguentz Dort Out For Season (Shoulder)
Derrick Favors Out (Back) - Favors hasn't played since Feb. 24 against Phoenix. No timetable for his return
Josh Giddey Out For Season (Hip)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Out For Season (Ankle)
Ty Jerome Out For Season (Hip)
Tre Mann Out (Hamstring) - Mann is out for Wednesday's game (Mar. 30) against the Hawks.
Mike Muscala Out For Season (Ankle)
Kenrich Williams Out (Knee) A timetable for his return has not been announced.

now, the first assumption you have to make is that several of those injuries are not legitimate...just like you have to do for Portland. But what's important in this context is if tanking was such a failure for OKC last season, why are they doing it again this season?

another thing to keep in mind is that OKC entered the lottery last season in 4th and slipped to 6th. It's not like they were in 1st and slipped to 5th

the thing is, like all competitions, there will be winners and losers. Luck is a factor. Just like luck is a factor in playoff seeding. But because a team has bad luck doesn't mean they should just give up on the goal

Portland will very likely enter the lottery with 6th place odds. They would have an 8.6% chance of staying at 6; a 50.4% chance at 7 or 8; a 3.7% chance at 9th. But they will also have a 37.1% chance at a top-4 pick. That one loss to OKC might be the difference between drafting a Lamelo Ball rather than an Obi Toppin. 5 extra wins could be the difference between drafting a Ja Morant rather than a Cam Reddish. It matters

[Case2012]

I hope we keep both picks and take Murray and Mathurin. I don’t think there’s a chance we win next year with One of those guys and Grant as the additions. Both have higher upside and can already do what Grant does for wayyyy cheaper. There’s also no reason 2 guys with all star potential can’t contribute at a high level as rookies. Dame will still be good in a few years when those guys start to peak and THAT’S when the blazers real title window opens IMO.

Having said that, the blazers will certainly trade one or both of those picks.

[BlazersBroncos]

I hope we keep both picks and take Murray and Mathurin. I don’t think there’s a chance we win next year with One of those guys and Grant as the additions. Both have higher upside and can already do what Grant does for wayyyy cheaper. There’s no reason 2 guys with all star potential can’t contribute at a high level as rookies. Dame will still be good in a few years when those guys start to peak and THAT’S when the blazers real title window opens IMO.

Having said that, the blazers will certainly trade one or both of those picks.

You really think both Murray and Mathurian are guarantees to do what Grant does right off the bat?

Because adding 2 players of Grant's level w/ picks 7 and 11 would be one of the best drafts ever. I dont think people realize how unlikely it is to add 2 starters in the draft.

There is probably a 50% chance that either of those guys ends up as good as Grant.

[Case2012]

I hope we keep both picks and take Murray and Mathurin. I don’t think there’s a chance we win next year with One of those guys and Grant as the additions. Both have higher upside and can already do what Grant does for wayyyy cheaper. There’s no reason 2 guys with all star potential can’t contribute at a high level as rookies. Dame will still be good in a few years when those guys start to peak and THAT’S when the blazers real title window opens IMO.

Having said that, the blazers will certainly trade one or both of those picks.

You really think both Murray and Mathurian are guarantees to do what Grant does right off the bat?

Because adding 2 players of Grant's level w/ picks 7 and 11 would be one of the best drafts ever. I dont think people realize how unlikely it is to add 2 starters in the draft.

There is probably a 50% chance that either of those guys ends up as good as Grant.

Yes I do and if you don’t then you’re vastly overrating Grant who’s had one good season and is already 28 and averages less rebounds than Dame. Go back and watch more Murray and Mathurin footage, they will be better than Grant, they’ll be on rookie deals and will be able to contribute year one.
The blazers picked LMA and Brit the same draft, it’s happened before. You can’t focus on the odds of that happening, you just have to swing for the fences which is what I would prefer. I don’t think you have to trade dame and build around young guys to be successful, I think you can do both with the right players. Olshey tried to do this but with late firsts and lottery busts not high end picks.

In my mind we could have a team in a few years with 34 year old and still really good Dame and a Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combo at the 3 and 4 rather than Grant. I’ve done a loooooot of scouting on these guys and I think they’re legit.