Blazers Players: Comparison / Trade Value

[Walton1one]

? Not sure if that was necessary, everything on here is opinion is it not?

But it doesn’t take much to watch games and see with your own eyes what’s going on

[m0ng0]

? Not sure if that was necessary, everything on here is opinion is it not?

But it doesn’t take much to watch games and see with your own eyes what’s going on

When do those start and what channel hahaha, I guess we shall see our not see depending on where they end up.

[JasonStern]

Billups is an awful coach. He had no business being a head coach in this league.

That being said, no other coach has made Simons anything other than the net negative he is today.

Billups needs to go, but so does Simons.

He's not a negative, though. He has a PER of 15.9 and a VORP of 0.8, which indicates he's slightly above average. But that's terrible if he's option 1A on any team. And his OBPM is negated by his DBPM. If anything, he's just overpaid and overplayed. Again, he's a smaller Jamal Crawford, who was once a 1A on a 23 win Bulls team.

The question any fan should be asking isn't why is Simons on the roster. But how the hell do we have a 20-30 win team that is right at the luxury tax. Other than the rookie scale contracts and maybe Thybulle, every player seems to be overpaid versus production.

[tester551]

I don’t think Simons makes the Blazers watchable. Watching him and Grant take turns isolating in a non-system and then watching him bleeding points the other way is unwatchable.

He needs to go.

Agree 100%

I love watching players who make winning plays and decisions... That is not Simons' game. He's a net-negative while on the court

[Wizenheimer]

I don’t think Simons makes the Blazers watchable. Watching him and Grant take turns isolating in a non-system and then watching him bleeding points the other way is unwatchable.

He needs to go.

Agree 100%

I love watching players who make winning plays and decisions... That is not Simons' game. He's a net-negative while on the court

I know some Simons fans think I'm a Simons hater. Two things about that: the first is I couldn't care less. The second is I'm not a Simons hater; what I hate is seeing significantly flawed role-players being elevated to featured players as #1 or #1b options in Portland because Blazer GM's are so damn bad at their jobs of securing talent. It's about to become a decade of that idiocy after 7 years of CJ as option 1b and 3 years of Simons as option 1a/1b.

Norm mentioned "watchable product" in another thread. Well, watching Simons-Grant-Ayton taking turns going one-on-one is not a watchable product for most fans....unless they crave boredom and falling into a coma

here are some numbers from NBA.com: last season Simons was in the 40th percentile in isolation plays. That's right, 60% of the league was better than him going one-on-one. Grant was in the 22nd percentile and Ayton was pathetic in the 7th percentile. By comparison, Brogdon was in the 75th percentile and Sharpe in the 49th. The year before last, Simons was in the 48th percentile (Dame 91st), but life for players like Simons is easier when defenses have to focus on a player like Dame leaving players like CJ and Simons open to draft off Dame's wake

Simons was only in the 68th percentile in PnR Ball-handler. By comparison, Devin Booker was in the 93rd percentile and Bradley Beal in the 88th percentile (Phoenix directly next to Portland on the list). Dame was in the 94th percentile in 2022-23

Isolation and PnR were 56% of Simons' offense. On the other hand, on spot-up plays, Simons was in the 79th percentile. That's not great but it's a lot better than isolation and PnR. And in catch-and-shoot, Simons had an eFG rate of 62.8%. That's not elite but it isn't that far away from elite. For perspective, his overall eFG rate was 52.3%.

that's the thing, Simons fans talk about his ability to create his own offense as giving him value to Portland. But the reality is he's crappy when he's creating his own offense, but quite good when the team is creating his offensive opportunities. I think even Simons fans can recognize that which is why they chatter so much about making him a 6th man. The problem is he's paid way too much to be a 6th man. Lou Williams was named 6MOY three times. But the highest salary Williams ever had was 8M in 2020-21. The salary cap that year was 109.1M. Next season, the cap is 140.6M. That would mean, projecting Williams salary to 2024-25 level, it would be 10.4M...for the reigning 6MOY. Simons will make 25.9M....lol at the 6th man idea

a lot of these criticisms can be just modified a little and applied to Grant and Ayton. If I could assign priority for trading, it would be:

Simons
Timelord
Ayton
Grant
Thybulle

I suppose you could elevate Thybulle up the list a ways because I think it's almost certain he'll leave in free agency next summer if he's still on the roster

[JasonStern]

Again, as the Simons defender, I'll repeat that him being the best player on this team right now does not mean he's a great player. It means he just has to beat out Grant and Ayton to be the best player.

Simons being an elite 6th man on a winning team is great. Unfortunately, this is not a winning team. We all hope that a Scoot/Sharpe back court develops. But that's not happening in 2024. So develop the young players off the court. Hope Simons/Grant/Ayton build some trade value. Then consider benching them. But there's really no benefit to playing the rookie contract players 48 minutes a game and benching ~75% of your tradable asset salary cap in some goal to set the record for least amount games won.

[JRoy]

Again, as the Simons defender, I'll repeat that him being the best player on this team right now does not mean he's a great player. It means he just has to beat out Grant and Ayton to be the best player.

Simons being an elite 6th man on a winning team is great. Unfortunately, this is not a winning team. We all hope that a Scoot/Sharpe back court develops. But that's not happening in 2024. So develop the young players off the court. Hope Simons/Grant/Ayton build some trade value. Then consider benching them. But there's really no benefit to playing the rookie contract players 48 minutes a game and benching ~75% of your tradable asset salary cap in some goal to set the record for least amount games won.

He wasn’t the best player on the team last year and he won’t be the best player on the team this year either, most likely.

[Walton1one]

But there's really no benefit to playing the rookie contract players 48 minutes a game and benching ~75% of your tradable asset salary cap in some goal to set the record for least amount games won

That is why you trade them, or at least one of them IMO now (sooner rather than later), as by dealing one of them you open up a spot so Scoot\Sharpe\Deni can start together. Also, Scoot\Sharpe are not "typical" rookie-level players are they? We are not talking clearing room for Camara\Murray here, but a #3 pick and a #7 pick. Players chosen that high are expected to play, particularly on a lottery-level team.

Simons to me makes the most sense to trade now because even in limited time together we have seen that Scoot\Simons do not work well together, so that issue is unlikely to go away and if Grant was dealt and Simons stays then you are basically, playing Sharpe at SF, in addition to repeating the Scoot\Simons bad backcourt pairing.

Also, Grant has 4yrs left, so there is time to move him down the line, Simons has 2yrs left, and at his age, time served with POR already (losing), and his comments LY and the fact that he has only 2yrs left on his deal, which really means THIS would be the year to trade him and net the most value back, it makes sense to deal him first.

So Grant dealt first works but is not ideal, Simons dealt first would be ideal. Eventually, both should be traded regardless who goes first.

[JRoy]

With Mitch Robinson out until at least December maybe NYK would be interested in a POR C.

[Walton1one]

Yikes, that leaves them with Achiuwa & Sims at their center position. Targeting a January return, would not hold my breath.

They will probably try and play small ball with Randle at Center.

Wonder if they would do Reath for KBD and a couple of 2nd's?

Or what about Banton (or Walker) & Reath for KBD & Dadiet?

Williams makes a lot of sense there, however complicated trade, probably need to involve a 3rd team or include Robinson in the deal.

[JRoy]

Yikes, that leaves them with Achiuwa & Sims at their center position. Targeting a January return, would not hold my breath.

They will probably try and play small ball with Randle at Center.

Wonder if they would do Reath for KBD and a couple of 2nd's?

Or what about Banton (or Walker) & Reath for KBD & Dadiet?

Williams makes a lot of sense there, however complicated trade, probably need to involve a 3rd team or include Robinson in the deal.

Can’t imagine they’d make a move for RW.

[Walton1one]

Well, there is interest there, however, a deal b\t both teams would be complicated and probably involve a 3rd team.

I think that if Williams can stay healthy, he will fetch a 1st round pick back (protected). he is too valuable not to, even with his injury history. But, we will find out, I can't imagine POR holds onto him, though with Cronin who knows?

[Norm2953]

One would think Portland/New York would be natural trade partners but TL would be a major gamble
in a trade

[Wizenheimer]

I think that if Williams can stay healthy, he will fetch a 1st round pick back (protected). ?

he can't stay healthy so, almost no chance he fetches a 1st round pick

I suppose, if he's playing well and not injured, he might fetch a 25-30 pick in next year's draft from a solid playoff team needing help inside

[dckingsfan]

I think that if Williams can stay healthy, he will fetch a 1st round pick back (protected). ?

he can't stay healthy so, almost no chance he fetches a 1st round pick

I suppose, if he's playing well and not injured, he might fetch a 25-30 pick in next year's draft from a solid playoff team needing help inside

There is a trade there. Williams + Reath for Robinson + Picks

The problem NY has is they have a limited number of picks they could convey. And there wouldn't be a FRP in the mix, just hopefully a bunch of SRPs.

I would think the better trade would be with Sac, Williams + Reath (and any one of Banton, Walker, Camara or Rupert) for Huerter. I would think Sac might just give up a protected FRP for that - or at least they could give up 3 to 4 SRPs.

Then let Huerter recover through the '25 season and see if he can bring value at the '26 trade deadline.

[Walton1one]

I think that if Williams can stay healthy, he will fetch a 1st round pick back (protected). ?

he can't stay healthy so, almost no chance he fetches a 1st round pick

I suppose, if he's playing well and not injured, he might fetch a 25-30 pick in next year's draft from a solid playoff team needing help inside

That is what I am thinking. IF he can stay healthy for the first part of the season, I think a team will offer up a mid\late or protected pick for him.

If Williams is dealt before the season, most likely teams are trying to acquire him on the cheap, however, I really don't think there is any incentive for POR to do that, as even if he does get injured (again) they could likely get that same deal at the trade deadline or next offseason. If someone desperate enough (NYK?) offers a late\protected 1st now (or a young player), POR should take it and run.

One way or another, we will find out, as I cannot imagine POR not trading Williams at some point.

[dckingsfan]

Probably not with you on that one... I don't think that Williams (by himself) fetches a FRP. You are just increasing the chances that you will get no picks with an injury.

[Walton1one]

Well so far this offseason, Williams has been attached via rumored interest to: NYK, SAC, LAL, HOU

Then you have other teams that could also have interest in trading for him at the deadline.

[BlazersBroncos]

I cant see NYK swapping their homegrown injury plagued big for a different injury plagued big in RWIII.

The only move I can see them make is for Reath - but it doesnt appear the NYK system really values the skills Reath brings (Notably floor spacing - they have made no attempt to get floor spacing from C). Regardless - I am hopefuly we can swap Reath for a filler contract and 2 SRP.

[dckingsfan]

Well so far this offseason, Williams has been attached via rumored interest to: NYK, SAC, LAL, HOU

Then you have other teams that could also have interest in trading for him at the deadline.

That isn't a terrible lot of teams that have interest. NKY probably can't give an FRP. LAL same. That leaves you with Sac and Houston. And there are other teams with Cs that want to move them as well.

Add to that, you are rolling the proverbial dice with Williams where you could end up with nothing. And I think that the most likely scenario (from a mathematical perspective).

But either way - you make good points and it is just us chickens' talkin... thanks for the banter.