Mike Schmitz - Draft Guru

[Walton1one]

I think you would probably need to wait at least 3yrs? to evaluate a scouting staff’s performance for a particular draft?

Given those parameters, the draft to look at would be the 2022 draft

POR drafted Sharpe @ #7. Who did they miss out on?

Well, Jalen Williams for one, taken #12 by OKC. Ok, so (9) other teams missed on him as well, Banchero\Holmgren went #1/2, would have been selected by most\every team & where they were.

And before we give too much credit to OKC, they did take Dieng @ #11, so maybe a little bit of luck was involved there?

As for anyone else? I would say, maybe Daniels? Taken @ #8 by NO, pretty pedestrian his first 2yrs (there is hope for Scoot yet!), traded to a new team (ATL) & really took some impressive steps this year.

Anyone else? Maybe Eason? He is 2yrs older than Sharpe. I I like him, but I don’t know if I’d take him over Sharpe

I cannot say definitively that I would rather have Daniels/Eason over Sharpe?

IMO, it is an eye of the beholder thing? Personally, I like Daniels a lot, love his defense. He is a good player, but definitively better than Sharpe? I’m not so sure.

The only other pick was #57\Walker. I don’t think he’s anything special, although I don’t know how many #57\58 picks have actually been able to stay on an NBA roster for 3yrs?

So, at least for 2022, I would say they did pretty good, missed on Williams, but so did everybody else & Daniels/Eason are kind of a matter of preference/team composition, so I would give them an A for thus draft

[BlazersBroncos]

IMO, it is an eye of the beholder thing? Personally, I like Daniels a lot, love his defense. He is a good player, but definitively better than Sharpe? I’m not so sure.

I think right now its pretty clear Daniels is better than Sharpe. He is elite on one side of the ball and passable on the other. Sharpe is still not above average by any advanced metric on either side of the ball.

But, for a team needing go-to talent on offense, it made and still makes sense to go with Sharpe.

Daniels would have been my pick if we kept Dame though.

[JRoy]

IMO, it is an eye of the beholder thing? Personally, I like Daniels a lot, love his defense. He is a good player, but definitively better than Sharpe? I’m not so sure.

I think right now its pretty clear Daniels is better than Sharpe. He is elite on one side of the ball and passable on the other. Sharpe is still not above average by any advanced metric on either side of the ball.

But, for a team needing go-to talent on offense, it made and still makes sense to go with Sharpe.

Daniels would have been my pick if we kept Dame though.

I wanted Eason if we kept Lillard and Edey this past year.

I like both Sharpe and Clingan. Time will tell which was the right call.

[BlazersBroncos]

IMO, it is an eye of the beholder thing? Personally, I like Daniels a lot, love his defense. He is a good player, but definitively better than Sharpe? I’m not so sure.

I think right now its pretty clear Daniels is better than Sharpe. He is elite on one side of the ball and passable on the other. Sharpe is still not above average by any advanced metric on either side of the ball.

But, for a team needing go-to talent on offense, it made and still makes sense to go with Sharpe.

Daniels would have been my pick if we kept Dame though.

I wanted Eason if we kept Lillard and Edey this past year.

I like both Sharpe and Clingan. Time will tell which was the right call.

I think in this past draft the actual best scenario was the one Wiz postulated -

#7 for Deni
#14 on Kel'el Ware
Keep the 2029 FRP

I get staying away from Ware due to the red flags, but man he looks good. A 2nd coming of Myles Turner but with a much softer touch. Edey and DC have those switching limitations that might keep them off the floor late in games - Ware doesnt have that IMO. That switchability and the 3 make him a wildly in-demand archetype.

[JRoy]

I think right now its pretty clear Daniels is better than Sharpe. He is elite on one side of the ball and passable on the other. Sharpe is still not above average by any advanced metric on either side of the ball.

But, for a team needing go-to talent on offense, it made and still makes sense to go with Sharpe.

Daniels would have been my pick if we kept Dame though.

I wanted Eason if we kept Lillard and Edey this past year.

I like both Sharpe and Clingan. Time will tell which was the right call.

I think in this past draft the actual best scenario was the one Wiz postulated -

#7 for Deni
#14 on Kel'el Ware
Keep the 2029 FRP

I get staying away from Ware due to the red flags, but man he looks good. A 2nd coming of Myles Turner but with a much softer touch. Edey and DC have those switching limitations that might keep them off the floor late in games - Ware doesnt have that IMO. That switchability and the 3 make him a wildly in-demand archetype.

Maybe.

I like Dasilva too.

[zzaj]

I think right now its pretty clear Daniels is better than Sharpe. He is elite on one side of the ball and passable on the other. Sharpe is still not above average by any advanced metric on either side of the ball.

But, for a team needing go-to talent on offense, it made and still makes sense to go with Sharpe.

Daniels would have been my pick if we kept Dame though.

I wanted Eason if we kept Lillard and Edey this past year.

I like both Sharpe and Clingan. Time will tell which was the right call.

I think in this past draft the actual best scenario was the one Wiz postulated -

#7 for Deni
#14 on Kel'el Ware
Keep the 2029 FRP

I get staying away from Ware due to the red flags, but man he looks good. A 2nd coming of Myles Turner but with a much softer touch. Edey and DC have those switching limitations that might keep them off the floor late in games - Ware doesnt have that IMO. That switchability and the 3 make him a wildly in-demand archetype.

We have no idea if #7 for Deni straight up was a possibility.

[Blazers20]

I would had drafted Buzelis at 7 and Ware at 14.

[DusterBuster]

I wanted Eason if we kept Lillard and Edey this past year.

I like both Sharpe and Clingan. Time will tell which was the right call.

I think in this past draft the actual best scenario was the one Wiz postulated -

#7 for Deni
#14 on Kel'el Ware
Keep the 2029 FRP

I get staying away from Ware due to the red flags, but man he looks good. A 2nd coming of Myles Turner but with a much softer touch. Edey and DC have those switching limitations that might keep them off the floor late in games - Ware doesnt have that IMO. That switchability and the 3 make him a wildly in-demand archetype.

We have no idea if #7 for Deni straight up was a possibility.

This was considered a very down draft. The price for Washington that they pushed for wasn’t a pick in the 2024 draft, it was that Bucks pick.

Teams are clamoring for future unprotected picks of teams currently “all chips in”. The Celtics deal of Pierce and Garnett to the Nets kind of set the stage for where we are now.

[Walton1one]

I was happy with Clingan @ #7, he is raw offensively, but already NBA level defensively

#14 for Deni? I don’t know how you can complain much about it, it will partially depend on where the 29’ pick ends up.

The only complaint I would have is that it was probably too soon to trade for a player like him, since this franchise does not have that alpha/star player

[HoopsFanAZ]

In 2022, I was a Dyson Daniels and Keegan Murray fan. Not #1 guys but as multiskilled, really solid #3’s (or possibly #2). Sharpe was an excellent swing for it.

In 2023, I hoped Dame was the “pick” with needed trades. BUT moving on was the best move and Scoot looks like an actual NBA player — just better in 1 1/2 seasons. I preferred a Thompson brother to Scoot. [I do hope Simons goes to ORL in a trade package that includes Black and Isaac — JI’s contract goes from $25M to $15M next season. I see both as strong rotation players who fit what PTD is going for — taller, longer, Defenders with skills to build on.]. I still like Murray at #23.

In 2024, I wanted big swings going after Tidjane Salaun and Cody Williams — get both. Find a way too get Furphy, too, and that draft would have made me very happy. Getting Deni and Donovan? I am in 100%. Timeline, skillsets, basketball junkies. Add in Camara and Rupert and those are Blazer types. “Hard hats and lunch pails.”

Grant, Ayton, Simons, Thybulle — I like them and want them on on other teams. Fit and timeline and contracts and …

[Blazers20]

Looks like Buzelis with the additional minutes is starting to come around and he looks like potentially a legit NBA player. I think Schmitz has dropped the ball AGAIN with last years draft by going with Clingan at #7 versus going after Buzelis at #7 and Ware at #11 with both players providing much needed size at 6’10 and 7’1 and versatility and athleticism. And if Schmitz got right in 2023 with Amen he would have looked like a true guru / genius.

[BlazersBroncos]

Looks like Buzelis with the additional minutes is starting to come around and he looks like potentially a legit NBA player. I think Schmitz has dropped the ball AGAIN with last years draft by going with Clingan at #7 versus going after Buzelis at #7 and Ware at #11 with both players providing much needed size at 6’10 and 7’1 and versatility and athleticism. And if Schmitz got right in 2023 with Amen he would have looked like a true guru / genius.

No GM was taking Amen over Scoot. It was consensus. Any other argument is revisionism.

And most here were down on Ware due to the motor issues. Any other argument is revisionism.

I had Matas higher than Clingan on my draft board - I think he is a really unique talent. That being said, he is putting up some nice raw stats in a huge minutes increase but the Bulls are in clear tank mode. He is at 16.5ppg / 3.5rpg / 1.8apg / 1bpg in FEB with 28.8mpg but at the same time is posting a -16.6 BPM with an abysmal 127 DRTg.

With Ayton out we are now in a spot to throw Clingan into the fire, finally, and I am excited to see how he responds.

[Wizenheimer]

No GM was taking Amen over Scoot. It was consensus. Any other argument is revisionism.

That's revisionism too. We can't be sure what the 27 other teams would have done with the 3rd pick.

I think Houston would have definitely taken Amen over Scoot because they wanted a veteran PG to run their offense and were targeting VanVleet. I think most teams would have taken Scoot, but certainly not all.

Indiana would have taken Amen because they had Haliburton & McConnell at PG
Detroit would have taken Amen, IMO, because they had Cunningham at PG

which points out that any team in a win-now mode with an in-place PG would have very likely taken Amen. And play-in/lottery teams with a in place PG would have very likely taken Amen

so: Cleveland, NY, Boston, Charlotte, OKC, Memphis, Dallas, Sacramento, Warriors

I think it's a lot more justifiable to draft a 3rd/backup wing with potential than a 2nd/backup PG with potential. Amen is highly versatile; he can play and defend 3 or 4 positions on the floor. Scoot is basically locked into PG. And there may have only been one team in the league that would have drafted Scoot and essentially made him a backup for his first 2 seasons; and that's the team that actually drafted him.

[Wizenheimer]

We have no idea if #7 for Deni straight up was a possibility.

well, we don't know either way. What we do know is that it was Brogdon + #14 + 2029 first + Portland's 2028 second + Portland's 2030 second.

it's entirely reasonable to expect that the 7th pick substituted for 14 + 2029 with everything else being the same would have been accepted.

2029 is 5 drafts from now and GM's and owners of a team as bad as Washington may have been more impressed by an increase in immediate value than speculative value 5 years away

[zzaj]

We have no idea if #7 for Deni straight up was a possibility.

well, we don't know either way. What we do know is that it was Brogdon + #14 + 2029 first + Portland's 2028 second + Portland's 2030 second.

it's entirely reasonable to expect that the 7th pick substituted for 14 + 2029 with everything else being the same would have been accepted.

2029 is 5 drafts from now and GM's and owners of a team as bad as Washington may have been more impressed by an increase in immediate value than speculative value 5 years away

Could be...we'll likely never know.

What we do know is that package you mentioned is what the Blazers gave up for Deni. As of now, I think that's pretty fair value based on Deni's age and how he's playing. I think there are certainly legitimate questions about the timing of adding a player like Deni to the Blazers, as well as the decision to give up picks when a team is rebuilding...

That word seems to be the rub. I think it's fairly plausible that Cronin doesn't see these years as "rebuilding" at all--thus that trade. It also shows that he's more delusional than we think he already is. And that delusion is dangerous for a franchise...

[Wizenheimer]

We have no idea if #7 for Deni straight up was a possibility.

well, we don't know either way. What we do know is that it was Brogdon + #14 + 2029 first + Portland's 2028 second + Portland's 2030 second.

it's entirely reasonable to expect that the 7th pick substituted for 14 + 2029 with everything else being the same would have been accepted.

2029 is 5 drafts from now and GM's and owners of a team as bad as Washington may have been more impressed by an increase in immediate value than speculative value 5 years away

Could be...we'll likely never know.

What we do know is that package you mentioned is what the Blazers gave up for Deni. As of now, I think that's pretty fair value based on Deni's age and how he's playing. I think there are certainly legitimate questions about the timing of adding a player like Deni to the Blazers, as well as the decision to give up picks when a team is rebuilding...

That word seems to be the rub. I think it's fairly plausible that Cronin doesn't see these years as "rebuilding" at all--thus that trade. It also shows that he's more delusional than we think he already is. And that delusion is dangerous for a franchise...

al fair

like I've been saying: dumpster fires at every level and the biggest hottest flames are up in Seattle

[Walton1one]

The funny thing to me is, if it is a player that Cronin desires, like Avdija. He clearly is willing to pay above value to get that player, but then he somehow expects that other teams would feel the same way about his players, which is just not how the world\NBA works.

[zzaj]

The funny thing to me is, if it is a player that Cronin desires, like Avdija. He clearly is willing to pay above value to get that player, but then he somehow expects that other teams would feel the same way about his players, which is just not how the world\NBA works.

Again, that all points to = delusion. Not being able to discern or extrapolate market value is like a cornerstone of the position, and Cronin doesn't seem to have that skill.

[Case2012]

Cronin doesn't have the skill, or even the basic iq to run a 7/11 let alone an NBA team. He's a ------ moron.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Avdija is no “all star” and I don’t expect he will become one. However …
With his size, athleticism, motor, skillset — he is a real secondary playmaker, connector — not just a forward at either spot but a willing and good (not great) defender — who just turned 24 — and a great contract!

Traded for Brogdon who needed trading and was a great guy
#11 in a below average draft
a couple 2nds that were offset by other moves in the draft
and the 2nd best of 3 1st round picks in 2029 — 2nd best of 3

And after watching him acclimate — and play next to Toumani — it was a helluva unexpected trade at a MORE than reasonable cost. So, yes, I have zero complaints about the trade itself, the cost, and other possible options in the draft despite really liking other players.

Taking into account other Cronin deals that got done and trades that did not, I won’t extend doubts or preferences on those to this friggin’ trade. And that includes being ambivalent on draft night about Clingan — because I liked a couple forwards, instead — but after watching Clingan this season, I no longer have any complaint about the first round decisions.

Still pissed they traded away the 2nd rounder when Furphy was there!

I understand the difference of opinions and analyses done in this thread, but Cronin and all deserve some flowers for the accumulation of Clingan, Deni, Toumani, Sharpe, and Scoot. The trades of veterans NEED to happen this summer — no doubt — and they don’t have to “win” those trades as much as get some pieces/capital.

And since that seems like the situation, if he doesn’t win the summer trades but doesn’t really lose, either, then criticism should be limited to having it gotten done later than optimal. That is unless people are set on looking for a negative narrative. Again, that is just IMHO.