Should Blazers trade their 2025 pick of outside of the top 4?

[DusterBuster]

RJ Barrett might be the least impactful player in the NBA. For how good his stats are, they are completely inconsequential to overall team production. Been the case in NY and TOR now.

[Sinobas]

How would you see the Booker trade happen? What would we send and what would we receive. Why would Phoenix do the trade?

How would you see the Sabonis trade happen? What would we send and what would we receive. Why would Sac do the trade?

I am genuinely intrigued to see if someone has come up with an offer that Phoenix or Sac would accept without berefting the Blazers of draft picks for the future.

Let's skip the charade. To whatever I say you'll reply "But they'd neeeeever do that".

Yet it seems whenever a star actually is traded people are often surprised at how little it took. We just got Deni for 2 draft picks.

Sorry, there was no charade. I don't dismiss the idea especially after the Dallas/LA trade.

If there was a way to trade for Sabonis that didn't "kill us" going forward, I would think we would jump on it. I just don't know.

I think there is a difference between Deni (Washington thought they got the better of the deal and wanted to ensure they had the worst record for this year's draft) and Sabonis and Sac's current position.

But maybe there is another team that is looking to do something similar and would be willing to dump a really good player for expiring contracts?

Sabonis would't kill us (assuming you're talking about salary cap). He makes 48 mil per year over the next 2 years. Year 1 will be a wash with the contracts we're sending out. Year 2 we have even more space coming off the books aside from whatever we send to Sac, and would not need to resign anyone (assuming Sharpe is included in the trade).

[HoopsFanAZ]

[…]
Sabonis would't kill us (assuming you're talking about salary cap). He makes 48 mil per year over the next 2 years. Year 1 will be a wash with the contracts we're sending out. Year 2 we have even more space coming off the books aside from whatever we send to Sac, and would not need to resign anyone (assuming Sharpe is included in the trade).

Though a trade of Ayton + Sharpe + draft capital for Sabonis is one I’d want, I’m pretty skeptical SAC would do so unless Sabonis put pressure on them for a trade. HOWEVER, I wouldn’t gut the Blazers trading away Avdija and/or Toumani after waiting so long for forwards like them. A combination of Clingan, Sabonis, Deni, Toumani, and Scoot would be dang good with Sabonis young enough to begin a playoff run. [It is the kind of big trade worth doing, IMHO.]

[Blazers20]

I would rather trade Scoot and Clingan before I’d trade Sharpe. I think Ayton-Sharpe-2025 Pick might be too much for Sabonis, I think Cronin overpaid for Deni.

[BlazersBroncos]

I would rather trade Scoot and Clingan before I’d trade Sharpe. I think Ayton-Sharpe-2025 Pick might be too much for Sabonis, I think Cronin overpaid for Deni.

The narrative that Deni was an overpay still being alive is nuts. He is the closest thing we have seen to an All-Star, outside Lillard, since LMA was on this team.

If the FO is hesitant on paying Sharpe, I could get behind a Ayton + Sharpe + pick for Sabonis deal. His drastic improvement from 3 this year, if it sticks, makes him much more appealing. Per advanced stats Sabonis is clearly a VERY high impact player. Since being traded to SAC he has posted -

22/23 - .221 WS/48 +4.1 OBPM +1.8 DBPM
23/24 - .206 WS/48 +4.0 OBPM +2.4 DBPM
24/25 - .201 WS/48 +4.3 OBPM +1.0 DBPM

Those are elite metrics that show a game changing talent. The issue would be age, you have to wish he was going into his age 26 season rather than age 29, and can he share the floor with Clingan?

That being said - the amount of defensive, lanky talent around Sabonis in PDX would be far and away better than anything he has seen in his career. Assume Camara can be a 13-15ppg guy and Deni continues to play this way and can get 20ppg - this is a pretty unique squad -

G - Scoot Henderson (30) / Anfernee Simons (18)
G - Toumani Camara (30) / Anfernee Simons (10) / Matisse Thybulle (8)
F - Deni Avdija (32) / Matisse Thybulle (12) / Jerami Grant (4)
F - Domantas Sabonis (10) / Jerami Grant (24) / Walker or Kris or Rayan or Reath or FA or Draft Pick (14)
C - Donovan Clingan (24) / Domantas Sabonis (24)

RWIII gets some spot minutes at C when healthy. I do think the top-8 is quite strong, but any chance on becoming a true contender would hinge on Scoot taking quite the jump. Regardless, its a fun squad IMO - and really your only looking at 10 minutes of Sabonis and Donovan sharing the floor (And who knows - it might work and you might WANT them to share the floor). And its a route more likely to be taken by the FO than a true tank / rebuild. We need to just accept that isnt going to be this teams path.

[zzaj]

I would rather trade Scoot and Clingan before I’d trade Sharpe. I think Ayton-Sharpe-2025 Pick might be too much for Sabonis, I think Cronin overpaid for Deni.

The narrative that Deni was an overpay still being alive is nuts. He is the closest thing we have seen to an All-Star, outside Lillard, since LMA was on this team...

While I personally don't think it's an overpay outright, some have questioned the timing of giving up two draft picks for a breaking out 23 year old 15/7/4 player to a team that should be embracing the tank and collecting as much draft capital as possible to try and find a long-term #1 option.

This line of thought isn't just RealGM, national pundits have brought up the timing too--I think the issue is very real and has merit.

Deni has about 5 winshares this seasons, which is substantial for a team trying to tank. Simons has about 3, Grant less than 2 and Ayton has about 3. Obviously, WS doesn't measure the whole impact a player has on a team...and certainly you can't just subtract those numbers from the win column and call that the number of wins without that player--but without question the Blazers would be in a much better place for drafting Top 4 this year and next if Deni weren't on the team. Flagg, this year...and AJ, Peterson, Boozer, and Ament in 2026 all have Star potential.

I tend to stand more in the place of the mistake being having Ayton, Grant and Simons on the roster than the timing of making the move for Deni. However, if the Blazers are not able to retain him (and that could become an issue) then what purpose did acquiring him serve?

[dckingsfan]

If you are trading with Sac, it will be about what they want as well. Moving Sabonis would leave them with

Code: Select all

Monk     Carter
LaVine   Ellis
DeRozen   
Murray   LaRavia
         Valanciunas

It seems then the biggest holes will be at C and forward. So, Ayton would be a given. Jabari Walker (although not perfect as he is more of a PF) would also have value in this trade. Given that they have players that are all better at guard than ours, both Scoot and Sharpe may not be wanted.

Code: Select all

Monk      Carter
LaVine    Ellis
DeRozen   Walker
Murray    LaRavia
Ayton     Valanciunas

Sac would really need to be sold on our pick for this trade. And then you look at someone like Brooklyn which could offer much more near-term draft capital. Or other teams that have a C and are overloaded at F.

[dckingsfan]

I tend to stand more in the place of the mistake being having Ayton, Grant and Simons on the roster than the timing of making the move for Deni. However, if the Blazers are not able to retain him (and that could become an issue) then what purpose did acquiring him serve?

I will only take the last paragraph here... Violent agreement that a tank was in order and there were many ways of accomplishing it with or without the Deni trade.

With respect to Deni/Camara and resigning them, this off-season is crucial. If Cronin does his usual and signs Ayton, Simons and Sharpe to extensions. Well, then - it won't matter. The team is hosed. If he goes a step further and finds it in his heart to sign Thybulle and Williams - then good night.

[Walton1one]

Because of the way SAC cap situaion\contracts are, I will be surprised if they trade Sabonis this offseason. I think he would have to publically ask out for that to happen, and his contract is not up until 28/29, so there is no pressure (FA\contract) like there was with Fox.

Most of their big contracts expire 3 years from now (27/28), so it IMO it sure seems likely that they make a few periphery moves, bring the main group back this year and see what happens and then if things are same\worse, look to make moves next offseason. So POR acquiring Sabonis seems unlikely

If Cronin trades the pick, it will probably be for a fringe type rotational young player on another team, who that player is though I have not been able to decipher.

[dckingsfan]

My bet is they just keep the pick. This is a deep draft and #1/#2 and then #3-5. This will be an interesting draft to decipher a few years from now. There are players that could fit well with the team and its probable timeframe.

[JasonStern]

I can see Sabonis working. But, again, he's not a #1 option. So, we're still stuck there. Plus, Sacramento isn't going to trade him for just a #8-14 pick. Thus, you're looking at realistically adding Simons, a 2nd, and possibly Thybulle/Timelord. I guess I'd be okay with that, especially if there are no plans to retain Simons. But, you're putting a lot of ball handling pressure on Scoot and Deni. And the ceiling as constructed would be a treadmill lower seed playoff team unless Sharpe or Scoot make huge jumps in their games.

As for including Deni and a lottery pick for Zion, I guess it's been almost 20 years since Oden over Durant, so I can see why trading half of the Dame trade return and an additional lottery pick for an injury prone big man makes sense for many current Blazers fans.

Cronin has been digging one of the most expensive holes in the ground in the history of the NBA.

Has he? Ayton/Simons/Timelord/Thybulle all expire next season. They have $47M in committed salary after that, with $34M of that being Grant's contract.

EXCEPT. The Blazers could be smart and not resign Ayton and Simons.

All a question of what contract they are offered. Both are solid value on full MLE deals - remember the MLE = cap / roster spots. When you start going above that, you need productivity to match. Can they? Yes. Do they do it consistently enough? It depends on what other options are available.

While I personally don't think it's an overpay outright, some have questioned the timing of giving up two draft picks for a breaking out 23 year old 15/7/4 player to a team that should be embracing the tank and collecting as much draft capital as possible to try and find a long-term #1 option.

This is season 4 of the tank. Acquiring useful pieces should be happening. Otherwise, you'll be regurgitating this same line during year 8 of the tank.

[oldfishermen]

I c

Cronin has been digging one of the most expensive holes in the ground in the history of the NBA.

Has he? Ayton/Simons/Timelord/Thybulle all expire next season. They have $47M in committed salary after that, with $34M of that being Grant'snk.

Working with your $47M number. The other $13M is Deni. So Cronin only has a 2 player team of Grant and Deni.

There are 4 more players with TO that bring the total to $76M. Scoot, Clingan, Camara, and Murray/yuk.

That makes 6 players, really only 4 maybe starters. Grant and Murray are not starters, hope both are gone by then.

So the Blazers go from having a very expensive hole in the ground, to not having half a roster lined up. Hope he drafts well to fill in a few holes. And does not overpay anyone else. He will need cap space the next season to re-sign a few of our keeper players.

Horrible cap management!

[Walton1one]

My bet is they just keep the pick. This is a deep draft and #1/#2 and then #3-5. This will be an interesting draft to decipher a few years from now. There are players that could fit well with the team and its probable timeframe.

Well that is the hope, but there have been far too many rumblings of them not valuing the pick and a preference to trade it for an already established player...

[Walton1one]

Next offseason, if you let Ayton\Simons\Williams & Thybulle walk, you are letting $87mil in salaries go.

26/27
Salary Cap: $170,112,000
Luxury Tax: $206,687,000
1st Apron: $215,541,000
2nd Apron: $228,608,000

You have $50mil tied up in Grant ($34)\Deni\Camara

You have $27mil in club options on Scoot\DC & Murray

If you let Sharpe go to RFA, you have a $25mil cap hold

Plus you have a 1st round pick ($4mil)

That is $111 mil, so approximately $59 mil under the cap

You have minor decisions on Rupert, Cissoko & Reath

Here is the dilemma though, what is POR going to do with all that cap space?

If you think they are going to sign some big name FA, then you clearly have not paid much attention during this franchises' history. I am sure they could get a B\C tier player for an overpaid amount (future Evan Turner come on down), but chances of getting a premium player?

Do you have vision of 36yr old Damian Lillard opting out of his $58mil/year deal to sign with POR for less?

Of course, this means letting all 4 of those guys walk for nothing, which is criminal IMO, especially for a small market team like POR. You have to get something for those guys, even minor, b\c letting them just walk (ala Aldridge) is not going to be to the teams' advantage.

So we can all see where this goes, right? Resigning Simons, probably Ayton to overpriced deals, because, well you have the space, plus you have to retain Sharpe for whatever you can resign him for ($30-35/year?), then you have Scoot the next year with a $41mil cap hold, AND you have to resign Camara, then Avdija the NEXT year.

I am not sure what the limitations are on resigning your own 2nd round pick and your own player on a ridiculously undervalued descending contract works in relation to the cap.

What is the max you can offer in relation to their current contract?

Do you have to be under the salary cap to offer them more?

Those are potentially troublesome issues when it comes to resigning Camara & Avdija and they certainly could affect how POR approaches their cap space. Well that, and letting all those guys walk, you still have to field a competitive team, right?

[Sinobas]

I would rather trade Scoot and Clingan before I’d trade Sharpe. I think Ayton-Sharpe-2025 Pick might be too much for Sabonis, I think Cronin overpaid for Deni.

The fact that you think Joe over-paid for Deni frames that nicely.

[RTG HD]

And what are other trade options with Simons, Grant, Williams, Thybulle and Ayton if there are any?

There may be a small chance we can trade $100 million man Simons for a dozen eggs. Not sure anyone else on your list has that much trade value.

Simons seems to have regressed from a year ago and the price of eggs keeps going up. It might be a good idea to get the eggs given the trend.

[Sinobas]

Am I in the Twilight Zone with this "we over paid for Deni" talk?

[Wizenheimer]

Am I in the Twilight Zone with this "we over paid for Deni" talk?

I've seen one person say that

[PDXKnight]

Am I in the Twilight Zone with this "we over paid for Deni" talk?

I've seen one person say that

This. Although it's far far more debatable if the trade helped more than it hurt us with the impact on the lotto standings in a generational draft

[HoopsFanAZ]

I try to be reasonable towards any the other team when proposing trades … and a small number of trades actually happen (none of my proposals ), so I don’t expect any during the draft for Portland. I was shocked in a good way regarding Deni.

My answer to the thread question is keep the pick. 8. 10. Top 4. Whatever. There are 10-12 guys Portland can get — who I like — and they have to do nothing to get them. Unless it’s 10+ and a “Deni“ trade or better, keep it and build.