2025 Off-Season Strategy - What will Cronin do?

[DusterBuster]

https://hoopshype.com/rumor/grizzlies-targeting-deni-avdija/

I clicked through to read the article...

Once I saw the term "The highly competitive Chauncey Billups and Scoot Henderson-led Trail Blazers" used by the author to describe Portland, I promptly left the site and filed that piece firmly in the garbage bin of my mind.

how big is that bin?

Massive.

[Wizenheimer]

I clicked through to read the article...

Once I saw the term "The highly competitive Chauncey Billups and Scoot Henderson-led Trail Blazers" used by the author to describe Portland, I promptly left the site and filed that piece firmly in the garbage bin of my mind.

how big is that bin?

Massive.

the RealGM effect

[PDXKnight]

"The Grizzlies would likely need to part with multiple first-round draft picks and potentially young talent like GG Jackson, Zach Edey, or Jaylen Wells. One unconfirmed proposal would have Portland receive Brandon Clarke, GG Jackson, a 2026 first-round pick (protected), a 2028 first-round pick (swap/protected), and second-round picks (2025, 2027)."

Not a fan of that especially if theres very much protection on the picks

[DusterBuster]

"The Grizzlies would likely need to part with multiple first-round draft picks and potentially young talent like GG Jackson, Zach Edey, or Jaylen Wells. One unconfirmed proposal would have Portland receive Brandon Clarke, GG Jackson, a 2026 first-round pick (protected), a 2028 first-round pick (swap/protected), and second-round picks (2025, 2027)."

Not a fan of that especially if theres very much protection on the picks

Wouldn't be a fan of that even without the protections. Basically all it does for Portland is recoup the picks they traded for Deni in the first place and get two clearly inferior players who aren't even starter quality.

I'm only moving Deni to the Grizzlies if JJJ is coming to Portland.

[Walton1one]

Protected firsts is a non starter, given what POR gave for Deni, but the players coming back are not very enticing either

[Case2012]

What if the sweetener coming back is Jaylin Wells instead? I’ve warmed to the idea of cashing-out on Deni now—while his value is peaking—to a contender willing to stack picks. Give me rookie-scale contracts we can control for eight years; Deni has only three seasons left, and by the time that deal expires we should just be entering a real contention window. Extending him next summer at $35–40 million a year—before we even land an alpha—feels backwards. (I'm thinking 2-3 picks and Topic from OKC's treasure trove.)

Same logic applies to Sharpe. Our timelines aren’t aligned: move Deni for two-plus firsts, flip Simons for a late first, and (if Sharpe blows up in his contract year) shop him at the deadline for another two or three (pull a spurs ala Murray) to someone like Brooklyn or Washington. Use one of those assets to buy back our Chicago-owed pick, then we’re sitting on our full draft cupboard, Boston’s first, Milwaukee’s unprotected 2029/31 picks and swaps, plus a roster of cheap high-upside wings.

Keep a few vet voices—Thybulle works—and “money-ball” the rest: long, high-motor defenders who can shoot and grow with Scoot and Clingan. That gives us flexibility to swing big when the true star shakes loose, or to let the kids develop into something special on their own. That leaves us with a core of Scoot, Toumani, and Clingan basically but a ton of picks, cap space and hopefully a top 3 pick in a stacked draft next year and god willing a new owner and management.

Scoot/CP3
Coward(11)/Rupert
Toumani/Thybulle
Grant/Fleming?(16)/Murray
Ayton/Clingan

15-18 wins

Next draft we're loaded with picks and a shot at Boozer or Dybansta.

What would Hinkie do?

[DusterBuster]

What if the sweetener coming back is Jaylin Wells instead? I’ve warmed to the idea of cashing-out on Deni now—while his value is peaking—to a contender willing to stack picks. Give me rookie-scale contracts we can control for eight years; Deni has only three seasons left, and by the time that deal expires we should just be entering a real contention window. Extending him next summer at $35–40 million a year—before we even land an alpha—feels backwards. (I'm thinking 2-3 picks and Topic from OKC's treasure trove.)

Same logic applies to Sharpe. Our timelines aren’t aligned: move Deni for two-plus firsts, flip Simons for a late first, and (if Sharpe blows up in his contract year) shop him at the deadline for another two or three (pull a spurs ala Murray) to someone like Brooklyn or Washington. Use one of those assets to buy back our Chicago-owed pick, then we’re sitting on our full draft cupboard, Boston’s first, Milwaukee’s unprotected 2029/31 picks and swaps, plus a roster of cheap high-upside wings.

Keep a few vet voices—Thybulle works—and “money-ball” the rest: long, high-motor defenders who can shoot and grow with Scoot and Clingan. That gives us flexibility to swing big when the true star shakes loose, or to let the kids develop into something special on their own. That leaves us with a core of Scoot, Toumani, and Clingan basically but a ton of picks, cap space and hopefully a top 3 pick in a stacked draft next year and god willing a new owner and management.

Scoot/CP3
Coward(11)/Rupert
Toumani/Thybulle
Grant/Fleming?(16)/Murray
Ayton/Clingan

15-18 wins

Next draft we're loaded with picks and a shot at Boozer or Dybansta.

What would Hinkie do?

I'm OK on the idea of cashing out on Deni while his value is high, but I need better return than anything from that awful Grizzlies trade. At that point, the Blazers are basically get less back than what they paid for him. The 16 might be the highest pick they get back and they traded away the #12 last year to get him (granted in a worse draft, but still). Also every young guy coming back from Memphis is the definition of meh.

Deni is a high-level starting quality player on one of the best contracts in the league. I want much better return than sub lottery picks and 7-10th rotation guys.

If I move Deni, I want to use him to get a clear upgrade, even if that means maybe I'm moving extra assets along with him. Keep moving up, don't do lateral or backwards moves.

[Butter]

What if the sweetener coming back is Jaylin Wells instead? I’ve warmed to the idea of cashing-out on Deni now—while his value is peaking—to a contender willing to stack picks. Give me rookie-scale contracts we can control for eight years; Deni has only three seasons left, and by the time that deal expires we should just be entering a real contention window. Extending him next summer at $35–40 million a year—before we even land an alpha—feels backwards. (I'm thinking 2-3 picks and Topic from OKC's treasure trove.)

Same logic applies to Sharpe. Our timelines aren’t aligned: move Deni for two-plus firsts, flip Simons for a late first, and (if Sharpe blows up in his contract year) shop him at the deadline for another two or three (pull a spurs ala Murray) to someone like Brooklyn or Washington. Use one of those assets to buy back our Chicago-owed pick, then we’re sitting on our full draft cupboard, Boston’s first, Milwaukee’s unprotected 2029/31 picks and swaps, plus a roster of cheap high-upside wings.

Keep a few vet voices—Thybulle works—and “money-ball” the rest: long, high-motor defenders who can shoot and grow with Scoot and Clingan. That gives us flexibility to swing big when the true star shakes loose, or to let the kids develop into something special on their own. That leaves us with a core of Scoot, Toumani, and Clingan basically but a ton of picks, cap space and hopefully a top 3 pick in a stacked draft next year and god willing a new owner and management.

Scoot/CP3
Coward(11)/Rupert
Toumani/Thybulle
Grant/Fleming?(16)/Murray
Ayton/Clingan

15-18 wins

Next draft we're loaded with picks and a shot at Boozer or Dybansta.

What would Hinkie do?

I'm OK on the idea of cashing out on Deni while his value is high, but I need better return than anything from that awful Grizzlies trade. At that point, the Blazers are basically get less back than what they paid for him. The 16 might be the highest pick they get back and they traded away the #12 last year to get him (granted in a worse draft, but still). Also every young guy coming back from Memphis is the definition of meh.

Deni is a high-level starting quality player on one of the best contracts in the league. I want much better return than sub lottery picks and 7-10th rotation guys.

If I move Deni, I want to use him to get a clear upgrade, even if that means maybe I'm moving extra assets along with him. Keep moving up, don't do lateral or backwards moves.

I get the concept of selling high, but at some point, what is the goal? Are you hoping to get a player who is better than Deni, or a rookie who is cheaper?

I have been very vocal about using this approach to move Sharpe, but it is specifically because of his inconsistent perimeter shooting AND he's about to need a big extension. Primarily I'd like to see the Blazers find a more consistent shooter to help balance their starting squad.

But with Deni, I see him as an ideal fit at the four. IMHO - he's the kind of player this franchise should build around. He may not be the super star we all hope for, but he is a foundational player that can help win play off series.

[BlazersBroncos]

This FO isnt trading Deni to take a step back and bottom out. I feel that has been made very clear over the past 1-2 seasons - a bottom out is not in the cards. They dont want to deal with the financial decline a Hinkie level team would bring, not then and especially not now with the team up for sale.

But if we did, a OKC godfather offer is about the only thing that interest me.

Topic
15
3 of OKC best future FRP

[HoopsFanAZ]

As a poster on another board said, Carter Bryant was asked who he patterns his game after, and he mentioned Toumani. Demin mentioned Deni. When was the last time you heard a draftee talk about Blazers forwards that way?

[PDXKnight]

This FO isnt trading Deni to take a step back and bottom out. I feel that has been made very clear over the past 1-2 seasons - a bottom out is not in the cards. They dont want to deal with the financial decline a Hinkie level team would bring, not then and especially not now with the team up for sale.

But if we did, a OKC godfather offer is about the only thing that interest me.

Topic
15
3 of OKC best future FRP

Man I love Deni but thats an offer I almost couldn't say no to.

[Wizenheimer]

This FO isnt trading Deni to take a step back and bottom out. I feel that has been made very clear over the past 1-2 seasons - a bottom out is not in the cards. They dont want to deal with the financial decline a Hinkie level team would bring, not then and especially not now with the team up for sale.

But if we did, a OKC godfather offer is about the only thing that interest me.

Topic
15
3 of OKC best future FRP

Man I love Deni but thats an offer I almost couldn't say no to.

well, yeah....basically Deni for FIVE 1st round draft picks....LOL

[DusterBuster]

Well, we can all finally put Simons to Orlando to bed. 5 FRPs for Desmond Bane is **** nuts. He’s good, but if that’s the going price for even non-All Star players… yikes.

[Walton1one]

And the dream is dead….,

Do we need to embrace the nightmare of Simons re-signing $35+ mil?

[Sinobas]

I wouldn't trade Deni for picks. I wouldn't even trade him for Cooper Flagg. Players that are good on both ends are rare, plus he's on an insanely cheap contract.

The Grizzlies would have to offer JJJ else I hang up immediately. And I wouldn't even trade Deni for JJJ straight up, because of the contract situations.

[Blazinaway]

I wouldn't trade Deni for picks. I wouldn't even trade him for Cooper Flagg. Players that are good on both ends are rare, plus he's on an insanely cheap contract.

The Grizzlies would have to offer JJJ else I hang up immediately. And I wouldn't even trade Deni for JJJ straight up, because of the contract situations.

If you would not trade Deni for Cooper Flagg then you go see a shrink...

[DusterBuster]

And the dream is dead….,

Do we need to embrace the nightmare of Simons re-signing $35+ mil?

Technicalllllllly speaking, the dream isn’t totally dead. The Magic actually still have a good number of FRPs to deal even after this, and salaries to make a Simons deal work… and they’re still missing a PG… but their salary cap would be insanely expensive for that starting 5.

Also, if Bane gets 5 FRPs, one can only imagine what that’s doing to Cronin’s headspace about thinking what Simon’s is worth. Even if he (rightly) acknowledges that’s Simon’s isn’t worth Bane because Bane is better, Joe has to think Simon’s is a 3 FRPs level player value… doesn’t he?

So to answer your question, yes. We do need to accept a 3 year 100mil extension is likely inbound for Ant this summer.

[DusterBuster]

I wouldn't trade Deni for picks. I wouldn't even trade him for Cooper Flagg. Players that are good on both ends are rare, plus he's on an insanely cheap contract.

The Grizzlies would have to offer JJJ else I hang up immediately. And I wouldn't even trade Deni for JJJ straight up, because of the contract situations.

If you would not trade Deni for Cooper Flagg then you go see a shrink...

I have Sinobas’ posts blocked. I opened this one before your reply and read that second paragraph and was immediately reminded why that block is in place. Just truly IQ point melting takes.

[dckingsfan]

And the dream is dead….,

Do we need to embrace the nightmare of Simons re-signing $35+ mil?

Technicalllllllly speaking, the dream isn’t totally dead. The Magic actually still have a good number of FRPs to deal even after this, and salaries to make a Simons deal work… and they’re still missing a PG… but their salary cap would be insanely expensive for that starting 5.

Also, if Bane gets 5 FRPs, one can only imagine what that’s doing to Cronin’s headspace about thinking what Simon’s is worth. Even if he (rightly) acknowledges that’s Simon’s isn’t worth Bane because Bane is better, Joe has to think Simon’s is a 3 FRPs level player value… doesn’t he?

Do to answer your question, yes. We do need to accept a 3 year 100mil extension is likely inbound for Ant this summer.

"Technically" you can stick a fork in it

Now we just have to hope and keep our fingers crossed that Cronin sees the light of having expiring contracts.

[DusterBuster]

So the Magic still have...

2025 1st (25th overall)
2027 1st
2029 1st (Memphis can swap)
2031 1st

This came from the Orlando board mod. I haven’t done (and won’t do) any checks with Steipen rules here if this is accurate, but this is what the Magic still have left from a pick capital standpoint.