call.me.dude wrote:You could just watch Millsap play and see he's so much better than Hickson, but in case that's too time-conserving here are some things to consider when comparing Hickson's and Millsap's stats or per36 stats.
Minutes:
Millsap has Jefferson (a bit worse than LMA), Favors (arguably better than Hickson, which pretty much says it all) and Kanter (better than Leonard, Freeland, Jeffries combined) to compete for minutes. Millsap would easily play 3-5mpg more than he is playing now on most teams, let alone on ours. There is a reason why Hickson plays only 28mpg on a team as bad and with as bad a frontcourt as ours ...
Rebounding:
Not to say (this contract year version of) Hickson isn't a better rebounder but again, Millsap plays next to Jefferson, Favors, Kanter. Those guys are great rebounders. Hickson plays most of his minutes next to LMA. Nuff said.
Scoring:
Utah is a very balanced scoring team. Millsap has proven that he is a very good scorer, capable of even 40 point games. Hickson scores mostly garbage points whereas you can throw the ball to Millsap and expect him to score. Millsap draws free throws pretty well, which at over 70% is pretty much a sign for a good scorer. He draws 6.0 FTAs per 36 to LMA’s 5.1 or JJ’s 3.8.
FG%:
Hickson is the only guy who is supposed to score in the paint and the only guy who goes after offensive rebounds on a team full of shooters. Utah though doesn't have a lot of shooters. They are 8th in points in the paint per game, we are 28th. Millsap along with Jefferson has to space the floor for their other players. He takes 5.0 (43% of his shots) from 10 feet out and further (3.9 shots from 15 feet out and further) whereas Hickson takes 1.9 (21% of his) shots from 10 feet out and further (1.2 from 15 feet out and further). So it’s no wonder his FG% is a lot worse, especially when he’s Utah’s 2nd option and thus has to deal with a lot more defensive attention. JJ is actually also shooting a worse percentage at the rim. Also, it’s only 22 games and Millsap has never shot as bad as this before. He usually is around at least 50%.
Defense:
I agree that they have about the same impact defensively, although Millsap gets you more blocks (wtf is up with that?) and a lot more steals (Hickson career per 36: 0.8spg, 0.9bpg. Millsap career per 36: 1.4spg, 1.3bpg). Millsap fouls a lot more though. But then again, he can afford to foul with Jefferson, Favors, Kanter behind him.
Passing/Ballhandling/BB IQ:
Millsap is an exceptional passer for a big man. Hickson is really bad as a passer and turns the ball over more than Millsap even though he’s not asked to be a scorer.
I'm sorry but Millsap is twice the player JJ is.
Millsap may be "twice" the player JJ Hickson is, whatever that means, but he is not twice as productive, and that's a fact
about some of your arguments:
* rebounding: if Millsap's rebounding numbers were actually depressed by being on such a strong rebounding team, then the Jazz must be about the best rebounding team in the NBA. They are certainly good at offensive rebounding as they are 2nd in the NBA in OffRebRate. But Millsap is only the 5th best offensive rebounder on the team. On the other hand, Utah is a pretty poor 27th in the league in DefRebRate. For reference, Portland is 14th. Overall, Utah is tied for 10th in total rebound rate. In other words, 1/3 of NBA teams are better. Meaning that Millsap is not really surrounded with an incredible group of rebounders. They are good, but not so good as to keep Millsap from reaching his potential. As a matter of fact, if Millsap had all this untapped potential as a rebounder, Utah would not be one of the worst teams in the league at defensive rebounding
* "
Millsap is an exceptional passer" as a big man? I think that's a bit of hyperbole. He's averaging 2.6 assists a game. Aldridge is averaging 2.4. Of course, Aldridge plays 7-8 more minutes a game so there's a skew in those numbers. Millsap has committed more total turnovers then Aldridge in less time however. On a per48 basis, Millsap ranks around 12-16 among PF/C's depending on what standard you use for meeting qualifications. This also isn't a period in time where there are any historically good passing bigs. So, while Millsap may be a good passer. he's far from exceptional. Granted though that Hickson is below average
* Millsap's scoring. First of all, I used PER and TrueShooting%, not FG% as a basis for looking at efficiency. Those numbers for Millsap are down a little this year, and while it is his lowest TS%, by just a little, he's had 4 different seasons with a lower PER then this season. There is little basis for concluding he's just having an off year. Now, I'd consider the possibility there is a sample size skew in some of the metrics, but Utah has played 27% of an NBA season, so the sample size argument is growing weak
* by the way, I think it's funny you brought up the contract year doubts in relation to Hickson. Tell me, isn't Millsap in a contract year as well?
as far as all the other arguments about offensive production, what I said in my first post is what I'll repeat here:
* Millsap scores 2.7 more points per36 then Hickson but requires 2.4 more FG attempts and a 21% higher usage rate to score those extra points
* on the other hand, Hickson actually has better PER, TrueShooting%, and eFG% numbers.
and that leads into the point I was actually making in that post. It wasn't about whether or not Millsap is the better overall player. He is and I'll willingly concede that
it's that I don't think having Millsap on this year's team instead of Hickson would make Portland a significantly better team. Would their record be any better then 9-12. I say no. Maybe Portland would have won a close game they lost with Millsap's offense. Or maybe they would have lost a close game they won without Hickson's rebounding
the point being that Millsap would not really move the needle for the team. However, he would certainly be expensive. He's making 8.6 million this season, more then twice what Hickson is. I think it's certain that Millsap will want his next contract to start at somewhere in the 8-10 million range. I think Hickson's will be considerably less and that he may be also willing to settle for a shorter deal.
If not, my take is that Portland shouldn't sign either. They should preserve as much cap-space and financial flexibility as they can until an option better then Millsap comes along. Just plugging Millsap and a 7-11 pick into next year's version of this team probably wouldn't even get it out of the lottery. But it would be a lottery team with a total payroll well over the salary cap and approaching the tax threshold. That simply doesn't make sense
