Offseason of talk about LMA potentially leaving the Blazers

[monopoman]

Well everyone get ready, the media will make it their duty to talk about Aldridge and how he will go to this team or that team this off-season.

A guy that played through injury to help this team and via last reports last season couldn't wait to sign the 5 year deal with the Blazers apparently is now strongly considering going to any team especially if its a Texas team. Hopefully he signs his contract with the Blazers ASAP, so we can stop these ridiculous rumors asap. An entire off-season of this crap will be ridiculously annoying if you ask me.

[The Sebastian Express]

You could probably edit the title to be a little less misleading and panic-inducing.

[Wizenheimer]

You could probably edit the title to be a little less misleading and panic-inducing.

yeah....I was wondering if this was a rumor based on some new information,
or some recycled conjecture,
or just the OP a little frustrated with the inevitable narratives that will come from the bloviation blogging

[James72]

Think this would be "leaking" if POR was destroyed in game 1?

[Norm2953]

If he's leaving, it will be to the Spurs but I'd wonder if the Spurs would that tough for
Tony Parker will be turning 33 next year and to get the cap space to sign LA to his
max deal, they have to renounce Duncan and Ginobli. LA would be leaving a lot of
money on the table to sign with a rebuilding Spurs team which few players in the
end are willing to do.

Dallas could have the cap space to chase LA but he'd almost certainly have to play
center and Dirk is near the end of his career. Houston doesn't have the cap space.

A S/T with a team over the cap might be feasible if a team like the Bulls are interested.

[monopoman]

You could probably edit the title to be a little less misleading and panic-inducing.

Well tons of articles will use my same type of title, it was not meant to be panic inducing it was somewhat a sarcastic title.

I will edit it though..'

I can't wait until people start talking about what teams Aldridge has on his list!

[JasonStern]

it's not like he was Portland's #1 go-to guy throughout his tenure. gets drafted #2. gets rewarded by playing a backseat to Roy. then Portland drafts Oden and he's pegged as a future #3 option. plays a very sub-optimal role under McMillan. gets what turns out to Portland to be a cheap contract. has to deal with the RAMBO (Roy/Aldridge/Miller/Batum/Oden) era collapsing with a whopping three first round playoff series losses to show for it. deals with the Feltdown. becomes the #1 option and becomes an all-star on a bad lottery team. has to play out of position. puts up with a rebuilding team using three draft picks and having two years of max contract cap space to build this current roster - a talented young point guard in an era of talented point guards, a shooting guard who may never return to form, a small forward that plays hard one out of every four games, a free agent center that was obtained from his second team for second round picks, a couple of young players with "potential", and some journeymen players the casual fan will never remember playing with Portland. and now, his team has a reasonable chance of being swept, with him getting some of the blame for being a chucker despite nobody else on the team being able to hit a shot.

the franchise is cursed, and Aldridge is a big. it's not unreasonable for him to want to leave. but if he stays, and he can stay healthy, there's realistically a chance he ends up the GOAT Blazer. not as far as single seasons go (Walton), or playoff success goes (Drexler), but definitely as far as cumulative team contributions go.

[GreenRiddler]

I would be surprised if LMA says no to SA if they offer him a contract, or he could give the FO a fair test to answer questions about this team and take a 1 year deal, it is a risk, but if he is heathly he gets to be a FA when the cap jumps. Also looks like a good guy for not bolting.

[red_power]

the franchise is cursed, and Aldridge is a big.

this franchise is simply dysfunctional, not cursed

[monopoman]

I would be surprised if LMA says no to SA if they offer him a contract, or he could give the FO a fair test to answer questions about this team and take a 1 year deal, it is a risk, but if he is heathly he gets to be a FA when the cap jumps. Also looks like a good guy for not bolting.

I think the only reason he takes a deal in SA is because its his home town, how much longer can SA do what they do especially if Pop retires when Duncan does.

I realize Duncan is more of a role player now, but he would be taking somewhat of a risk going to SA when your looking beyond 1-2 seasons. I would be blown away if Pop and Duncan are still there in 3 seasons from now.

[Wizenheimer]

People keep talking about San Antonio going after Aldridge. While I agree it's a possibility, getting there is going to be a problem for them. Look at their cap-situation...

"guaranteed salaries and cap-holds":

Tony Parker $13,437,500
Tiago Splitter $8,500,000
Boris Diaw $7,000,000
Patrick Mills $3,578,947
Kawhi Leonard $7,235,148
Kyle Anderson $1,142,879

$40,894,474

all well and good. The cap is projected to be around 67 million which means the Spurs would need to be at around 48-49 million in order to be able to offer Aldridge a max. Even after adding 6 roster charges to 40.9 million, the Spurs would be at 44 million....45 million if they keep their first round pick

but obviously, there are some important names missing from that list...and some cap-holds that accompany those names:

Tim Duncan $15,000,000 (cap-hold)
Manu Ginobili $10,500,000 (cap-hold)
Danny Green $7,647,500 (cap-hold)
Marco Belinelli $3,735,875 (cap-hold)
Aron Baynes $3,946,300 (cap-hold)
Cory Joseph $5,058,153 (cap-hold)

so, assuming those numbers & assumptions are correct, the Spurs would have to renounce the rights to Duncan, Manu, Green, Joseph, and one of Belinelli/Baynes in order to have enough money to give Aldridge the max

and that would mean Aldridge would be going to a team that didn't have a starting caliber C. We know he'd look a little cross-eyed at that prospect

I don't think the Spurs would have a problem renouncing Manu, Belinelli, Baynes, & Joseph...not if it meant landing a top-tier free agent. Manu appears pretty much done and the other players could be replaced. But renouncing Duncan and Green would be huge moves, even with Duncan being 39 next year. And I have to assume that Aldridge would be a lot less attracted to SA without Duncan on the team

you also have to wonder if Aldridge is the kind of player the Spurs would go all out for. I can see them going after Marc Gasol. He'd fit extremely well into Duncan's role. Aldridge wouldn't so much, especially the perimeter oriented, low-efficiency Aldridge Stotts has created

Can't dismiss San Antonio, but I don't know that they are as big a threat to 'steal' Aldridge as some believe
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of the other two Texas teams, Houston won't have cap-space...they are no threat

Dallas, Aldridge's home town team, could have the space, but only if they renounce Tyson Chandler. Which would mean Aldridge would be the only big on the roster besides Dirk. Would he be willing to play C all the time to play in Dallas? And Dallas would certainly not be a contender
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IMO, perhaps the biggest threat in terms of a specific team would be Atlanta. If they wanted to essentially trade Millsap for Aldridge they could renounce the rights to Millsap, keep the rest of their signed roster, still re-sign DeMarre Carroll & Pero Antic, have the 15th pick in the draft, AND sign Aldridge. And they are already a contender coming out of the east. I have no idea if they would consider doing that, but it's something to keep an eye on
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Maybe the biggest "threat" is Aldridge deciding he'll risk signing a 1 year deal and then become a free agent again in 2016 when the cap jumps up to 90 million. Lots of teams would have cap-space then, and if Aldridge is willing to assume the risks of signing for a year, he might also be willing to sign for a little less then the max. If so, several teams could be options

[red_power]

People keep talking about San Antonio going after Aldridge. While I agree it's a possibility, getting there is
of the other two Texas teams, Houston won't have cap-space...

houston can waive papanikolau and dump jones and motjejunas easily

[tester551]

I would be surprised if LMA says no to SA if they offer him a contract, or he could give the FO a fair test to answer questions about this team and take a 1 year deal, it is a risk, but if he is heathly he gets to be a FA when the cap jumps. Also looks like a good guy for not bolting.

I think the only reason he takes a deal in SA is because its his home town, how much longer can SA do what they do especially if Pop retires when Duncan does.

I realize Duncan is more of a role player now, but he would be taking somewhat of a risk going to SA when your looking beyond 1-2 seasons. I would be blown away if Pop and Duncan are still there in 3 seasons from now.

That is like saying someone who grew up in Spokane would want to go to Vancouver Wa because it is their "home town".

Dallas & SA are far enough away that it's really not a "home town" advantage.

[The Sebastian Express]

People keep talking about San Antonio going after Aldridge. While I agree it's a possibility, getting there is
of the other two Texas teams, Houston won't have cap-space...

houston can waive papanikolau and dump jones and motjejunas easily

Yeah, they can get around 16.5 million I think if they waive Papa, Prigioni, trade Jones and Motiejunas.. and if Corey Brewer declines his player option (which is a hair under 5 million next year). I don't take Houston as a serious threat, thought.

I think the biggest 'threat', like Wizenheimer said, is him simply taking a one year deal and waiting for the cap increase. I'd like to think LMA understands we've had significant injuries this year, as well as them being at the worst possible time, and that the FO has done pretty much all he's asked. He will hold every single major record for Portland if he stays, and I do think that's incredibly important to him. I guess we'll see in the off-season.

Mono,

Yes, many articles will use the headline you originally use. But they will do it for clickbait so they get hits and generate ad revenue. Because it sends people into a panic and they know what catches the eye of the reader. I'd like for us to avoid causing that panic for our fellow posters, who will undoubtedly have lots of it over the summer.

[Wizenheimer]

People keep talking about San Antonio going after Aldridge. While I agree it's a possibility, getting there is
of the other two Texas teams, Houston won't have cap-space...

houston can waive papanikolau and dump jones and motjejunas easily

they can waive papanikolau....that would put them at about 61 million in guaranteed salary.

dumping Jones and Motjejunas only gains them 3.7 million in space because they dump 4.8 million in salary but are then assessed 1.1 million in roster charges. So all they'd have is about 10 million in cap-space, maybe less

and that does not account for Patrick Beverly, Josh Smith, Jason Terry, or the Pelican's 1st round pick that Houston owns

like I said...no effective cap-space in any Aldridge sweepstakes

[Wizenheimer]

Yeah, they can get around 16.5 million I think if they waive Papa, Prigioni, trade Jones and Motiejunas.. and if Corey Brewer declines his player option (which is a hair under 5 million next year). I don't take Houston as a serious threat, thought.

it's actually about 15.7 million rather then 16.5 million and that's before the add-back of 2.63 million in 5 roster charges. So they could effectively clear 13.1 million in space. Of course, Brewer could monkey-wrench the entire thing by opting in

since their starting point is north of 66 million, they'd end up around 53 million...at least 5 million short of the cap-space required. And they'd still have to deal with the Pelican's 1st round pick, Patrick Beverly & Josh Smith. And many of these decisions would have to be made long before they could talk to Aldridge and his agent

[The Sebastian Express]

Yeah, they can get around 16.5 million I think if they waive Papa, Prigioni, trade Jones and Motiejunas.. and if Corey Brewer declines his player option (which is a hair under 5 million next year). I don't take Houston as a serious threat, thought.

it's actually about 15.7 million rather then 16.5 million and that's before the add-back of 2.63 million in 5 roster charges. So they could effectively clear 13.1 million in space. Of course, Brewer could monkey-wrench the entire thing by opting in

since their starting point is north of 66 million, they'd end up around 53 million...at least 5 million short of the cap-space required. And they'd still have to deal with the Pelican's 1st round pick, Patrick Beverly & Josh Smith. And many of these decisions would have to be made long before they could talk to Aldridge and his agent

I had forgotten about the Pelicans' pick. You're working with Prigioni and his not fully guaranteed contract in the numbers, yeah? I just did a quick calculator, lol.

[Wizenheimer]

I had forgotten about the Pelicans' pick. You're working with Prigioni and his not fully guaranteed contract in the numbers, yeah? I just did a quick calculator, lol.

yeah, I accounted for Priioni's 290K guaranteed. His salary is 1.7 million, but there is the 290K guarantee and then add a 525K roster charge. Waiving him only creates about 900K in cap-space

[The Sebastian Express]

Ahhh, yes. Yes. Thank you. I hadn't thought to add the roster charges. Dumb moment on my part. Thank you!

[Billy]

Aldridge leaving is obviously a very real possibility. While at this point I don't feel that is going to be the final outcome, make no mistake he'll listen, and if you listen there is a decent chance someone can say something that will strike a chord and make you start re-evaluating.

He truly owes Portland nothing. As has been outlined pretty well in this thread so far, he's gone from being the projected second or third wheel for the majority of his career, and has proven time and again that he's a true #1. He has earned every penny he's been paid (and then some), and owns a lot of franchise marks despite, again, not being a primary option for a large chunk of his time here.

While the Blazer fan in me of course wants him back no matter what; putting myself in his shoes I have a lot of reason's to look at the options available. So far Portland hasn't exactly proven that they can put a successful team around him. While obviously injuries are out of everyone's control, there has still been plenty of max cap room and high draft pick opportunities that have completely failed along the way. While no team has a spotless track record, some of the teams that are no doubt going to be his most aggressive suitors also have a fairly strong track record of being aggressive, and learning how to cut bait and get back into the game if something doesn't go their way.

I hope that not only does Portland sign Aldridge, but they also do as much as they can to ensure that the prime of his career is a successful one on the court. No doubt if Aldridge remains healthy he has another 4-5 years of fairly high level all-star quality basketball. But for one reason or another, it seems as though the supporting cast continues to fall short. I think it may mean some difficult decisions involving players that are not only talented, but also well regarded on the team, and in Portland as a whole. But I think if Portland not only wants to resign him, but make his last major contract a successful tenure, that Portland has to strongly look at each and every player on the roster and ask if they could do better.