This summer

[Norm2953]

I think Portland's offseason this summer will be to drop salary if they can and use their higher two
picks to eventually replace higher priced veterans.

I would build around Harkless, Vonleh and Turner up front with Nurkic with a backcourt of Dame, CJ and
Crabbe. I'm not holding up any real hope that last seasons signings are going to dissappear but Noah
Vonleh's resurgence down the stretch likely makes Ed Davis and Aminu expendable. We might be
okay if we could get solid front court prospect(s) and a defensive minded guard from this draft.

I would have liked to have gotten Frank Nitlikina if we had gotten a mid lottery pick but if we can
pick another large big bodied front court player to pair with a resurging Noah Vonleh and another
defensive back court player (if we can dump Turner) we might be okay. Bam Adebayo might be a
good fit with Portland as another big bodied player for we could still use more physicality but there
likely be plenty of bigs available with our first round pick.

[Wizenheimer]

I would build around Harkless, Vonleh and Turner up front with Nurkic with a backcourt of Dame, CJ and
Crabbe. .

Dame - 28 million/year
CJ - 26.5 million
Nurkic - 24 million
Crabbe - 19 million
Turner - 17.5
Harkless - 10 million
Vonleh - 8 million ?

[b]133 million[/b]

projected tax threshold:

2017-18: 122 million
2018-19: 130 million
2019-20 : 133 million

you're averaging 133 million/year in salary for7 players when the roster minimum is 14 and the tax threshold 3 years from now is expected to be 133 million. Doesn't seem realistic, and that's even if Nurkic and Vonleh combine to make significantly less

[Fitz303]

I would build around Harkless, Vonleh and Turner up front with Nurkic with a backcourt of Dame, CJ and
Crabbe. .

Dame - 28 million/year
CJ - 26.5 million
Nurkic - 24 million
Crabbe - 19 million
Turner - 17.5
Harkless - 10 million
Vonleh - 8 million ?

[b]133 million[/b]

projected tax threshold:

2017-18: 122 million
2018-19: 130 million
2019-20 : 133 million

you're averaging 133 million/year in salary for7 players when the roster minimum is 14 and the tax threshold 3 years from now is expected to be 133 million. Doesn't seem realistic, and that's even if Nurkic and Vonleh combine to make significantly less

The numbers that you're using aren't for next season though. That's for the following summer, when Nurkic and Vonleh get raises (though it is possible, however unlikely, that they sign extensions this season). Next year, if they shed Davis, Aminu, and Leonard, while drafting 2 young prospects, they'd be under the tax. The following offseason, Crabbe and Turner both only have 2 years remaining, and thus hopefully making it easier to move them to make room for Nurkic and Vonleh's raises

[Wizenheimer]

The numbers that you're using aren't for next season though. That's for the following summer, when Nurkic and Vonleh get raises (though it is possible, however unlikely, that they sign extensions this season). Next year, if they shed Davis, Aminu, and Leonard, while drafting 2 young prospects, they'd be under the tax. The following offseason, Crabbe and Turner both only have 2 years remaining, and thus hopefully making it easier to move them to make room for Nurkic and Vonleh's raises

Fitz...I was replying to Norm who said he wanted to "build" around those 7 players. Those were his keepers. That implied they'd be Blazers for at least the duration of their contracts

[d-train]

I agree that Olshey will manage payroll to stay under luxury tax as long as we are not contenders. But, lowering payroll is not going to be the objective in the near term. We had a few years when salary was a big concern because the objectivie was to maximize cap room. Now we are team building while over the cap. I don't see Olshey managing for cap room again unless we get lucky in the draft and end up with a franchise player on a bargain contract.

[Roy The Natural]

I would build around Harkless, Vonleh and Turner up front with Nurkic with a backcourt of Dame, CJ and
Crabbe. .

Dame - 28 million/year
CJ - 26.5 million
Nurkic - 24 million
Crabbe - 19 million
Turner - 17.5
Harkless - 10 million
Vonleh - 8 million ?

[b]133 million[/b]

projected tax threshold:

2017-18: 122 million
2018-19: 130 million
2019-20 : 133 million

you're averaging 133 million/year in salary for7 players when the roster minimum is 14 and the tax threshold 3 years from now is expected to be 133 million. Doesn't seem realistic, and that's even if Nurkic and Vonleh combine to make significantly less

The numbers that you're using aren't for next season though. That's for the following summer, when Nurkic and Vonleh get raises (though it is possible, however unlikely, that they sign extensions this season). Next year, if they shed Davis, Aminu, and Leonard, while drafting 2 young prospects, they'd be under the tax. The following offseason, Crabbe and Turner both only have 2 years remaining, and thus hopefully making it easier to move them to make room for Nurkic and Vonleh's raises

Yes, I'd definitely be looking at doing this sort of move this offseason. Shipping off Leonard now frees up some luxury space, and gets a player who likely has no upside away from the team. I might actually keep Davis around this offseason and into next year, and move him at the deadline. Davis actually has pretty good value if he bounces back, and I believe he can be traded mid 2017-18 to get the Blazers below the luxury line on the year. Aminu and Leonard should be moved this offseason. Aminu is definitely movable, and Leonard will probably require an asset with him.. I still think he can be moved for the Cle pick rather than the Mem pick to a team that's just terrible, and a long way away from being competetive... Brooklyn, Orlando.. those types.

In 2018-19, we're looking at getting under the luxury line again, unless the team has a breakthrough player next year and becomes a contender of course, so you should be looking to move either Turner or Crabbe. With 2 years left on their contracts, and 2 rookie scale players on the team, with a 1st round pick in 2019, we should have enough to send one of them out if need be.

There's literally no reason to rush it all this offseason though. The regression of Davis and Aminu this year makes the sting of having to move them quite a bit less damning though. They're on pretty friendly contracts, but neither has been very good this year, so it's not as if the Blazers are moving integral pieces of the future due to their offseason spending. The offloading of salary can be accomplished in steps, in a piecemeal fashion, without depleting the Blazers fully of assets, and still avoiding the luxury. The position Portland is in, isn't as horrible as some may have you believe.

The reality is, that once last offseason went bust on any of the higher end FAs coming here, it was pretty much going to require a miracle to get into contention at that point anyways. So now, we wait... we try to draft well, or see if a major player is willing to put Portland on his list of teams, and we can trade for him... or pray for internal development... You know, the same thing that Portland has always had to do.

I agree that Olshey will manage payroll to stay under luxury tax as long as we are not contenders. But, lowering payroll is not going to be the objective in the near term. We had a few years when salary was a big concern because the objectivie was to maximize cap room. Now we are team building while over the cap. I don't see Olshey managing for cap room again unless we get lucky in the draft and end up with a franchise player on a bargain contract.

Absolutely, at this point we're rolling the dice on internal development and drafting. Last offseason was our shot at the FA game, it failed... none of the big names were interested. Pretty much regardless of what we were going to do, we were going to be at the cap this year anyways.

I guess if the Blazers resigned no one, not Harkless, not Leonard, not Crabbe, signed no one, and then just filled the roster with 1 year veterans or young guys on minimum contracts, then offloaded Aminu and Davis this next offseason... THEN we would be looking at good cap space again. But we couldn't draw in anyone when we looked like the next hotshot up and coming team last year. How are we going to get a player to sign here when it's Lillard/McCollum and a bunch of guys... oh yea, and we could go over the cap to resign Plumlee if you come here dream free agent!!!

[Norm2953]

The numbers that you're using aren't for next season though. That's for the following summer, when Nurkic and Vonleh get raises (though it is possible, however unlikely, that they sign extensions this season). Next year, if they shed Davis, Aminu, and Leonard, while drafting 2 young prospects, they'd be under the tax. The following offseason, Crabbe and Turner both only have 2 years remaining, and thus hopefully making it easier to move them to make room for Nurkic and Vonleh's raises

Fitz...I was replying to Norm who said he wanted to "build" around those 7 players. Those were his keepers. That implied they'd be Blazers for at least the duration of their contracts

Its not so much I'm building around those 7 players indefinitely for a resurging Vonleh might not be abled to be resigned
after next summer which is why I think it likely the Blazers will end up picking a player like Adebayo who would play a
role similar to another UK player (Willie Causey-Stein). It simply not realistic NO will pay the price to move Crabbe or
Turner but I actually can see a role for those players if we have to keep them.

Putting aside numbers, from a basketball POV, the goal in fall camp is to fully integrate Nurkic into Portland's
offensive and defensive schemes. We need another big body to compliment Vonleh and Harkless up front and could
use someone who can make all those open shots that Aminu has clanked for two seasons and finally could use a
defensive minded guard if we somehow manage to move Turner. Our big 3 is Dame/CJ and Nurkic. Harkless and
Vonleh seem to be doing well playing with a quality big and Turner and Crabbe are basically overpriced role players.

[Roy The Natural]

The numbers that you're using aren't for next season though. That's for the following summer, when Nurkic and Vonleh get raises (though it is possible, however unlikely, that they sign extensions this season). Next year, if they shed Davis, Aminu, and Leonard, while drafting 2 young prospects, they'd be under the tax. The following offseason, Crabbe and Turner both only have 2 years remaining, and thus hopefully making it easier to move them to make room for Nurkic and Vonleh's raises

Fitz...I was replying to Norm who said he wanted to "build" around those 7 players. Those were his keepers. That implied they'd be Blazers for at least the duration of their contracts

Its not so much I'm building around those 7 players indefinitely for a resurging Vonleh might not be abled to be resigned
after next summer which is why I think it likely the Blazers will end up picking a player like Adebayo who would play a
role similar to another UK player (Willie Causey-Stein). It simply not realistic NO will pay the price to move Crabbe or
Turner but I actually can see a role for those players if we have to keep them.

Putting aside numbers, from a basketball POV, the goal in fall camp is to fully integrate Nurkic into Portland's
offensive and defensive schemes. We need another big body to compliment Vonleh and Harkless up front and could
use someone who can make all those open shots that Aminu has clanked for two seasons and finally could use a
defensive minded guard if we somehow manage to move Turner. Our big 3 is Dame/CJ and Nurkic. Harkless and
Vonleh seem to be doing well playing with a quality big and Turner and Crabbe are basically overpriced role players.

I guarantee you that if Vonleh is surging at 22 years old and taking strides forward, that Olshey and Allen will pay the price to move Crabbe or Turner. Although it begs the question, that if Vonleh and Nurkic are both taking steps forward, this team should be pretty damn good. At that point, the Blazers might eat the luxury for a year and move Turner and/or Crabbe when they're expiring.

[Norm2953]

It remains to be seen how far Vonleh will "surge" for unless he signs an extension that is well under
market value, Portland will allow him to be a RFA and hope they can afford to sign him.

It's not going to be easy providing enough incentives for another team to take on Crabbe/Turner.
Likely they will look for incentived deal that brings back an onerous contract for less years.

I do think the core of the team will be Dame and Nurkic. It's possible basketball economics could
force them to consider one of the CJ trades but its far more likely Portland will keep CJ and
move Ed Davis, Aminu and the end of their bench replacing these players basically making
the veterans minimum or on rookie deals.

One thing to note is how management views this team after they finish this season. There is some
optimism with Nurkamania but if they get clobbered by the GSW or finish at 9 and out of the
playoffs, there might be more appetite for those changes.

[DaVoiceMaster]

I would move any of the following players this summer:

Leonard
Turner
Aminu
Davis
Ezeli
Crabbe (he's starting to warm on me as he becomes more consistent, but he teased us last year so he may do it again this year.

Napier, Connaughton, Quarterman, and Layman go without saying.

The keepers are Nurkic, Lillard, McCollum, and Harkless. Vonleh is cheap right now and starting to show potential so I would hang on to him, but wouldn't hesitate to toss him to make a deal work.

[Goldbum]

I really believe we will be able to trade Crabbe for either an expiring or cap relief + a future 2nd or late first. He is too young and too good a shooter for someone not to bite. Wouldn't mind trading Chief for cap relief and a future 1st as well. Davis I think we will let walk after next year. Then we draft Miles Bridges/J.Patton and Motley. Let Planet Pat, Festus and Quarterman go( wouldn't mind keeping Quarterman). Laymam will pick up some of Crabbes designated shooter minutes... that's my hope for this summer anyway.

[DusterBuster]

I really believe we will be able to trade Crabbe for either an expiring or cap relief + a future 2nd or late first. He is too young and too good a shooter for someone not to bite. Wouldn't mind trading Chief for cap relief and a future 1st as well. Davis I think we will let walk after next year. Then we draft Miles Bridges/J.Patton and Motley. Let Planet Pat, Festus and Quarterman go( wouldn't mind keeping Quarterman). Laymam will pick up some of Crabbes designated shooter minutes... that's my hope for this summer anyway.

I agree. As much as people want to completely crap all over Crabbes' contract, the fact that he's still under 25 and one of the best 3pt shooters in the league will give him enough value to be moved this summer imo. Won't be expecting much in return, but I don't think the Blazers are stuck with him and only have it at about a 50/50 shot that they would have to include added incentives to move him.

I could see a Davis + Chief combo deal to a team like the Jazz or Hawks. By that I don't mean those exact specific teams, but teams that are built more around a 'team' game than built around a single superstar.

All in all, I expect this summer to be fairly active with the Blazers shifting players and picks to retool in the Nurk era.

I'll even throw out one of my patented 6mo early predictions, I think we'll see Harkless moved this summer.

[zzaj]

If I'm Olshey, my mission this summer is to make every asset available not named Lillard or Nurkic to try and trade for Paul George.

Draft picks, CJ, Harkless, whatever...it may be impossible, but a 'Big 3' of Lillard/George/Nurkic is what I'd be shooting for.

[Roy The Natural]

If I'm Olshey, my mission this summer is to make every asset available not named Lillard or Nurkic to try and trade for Paul George.

Draft picks, CJ, Harkless, whatever...it may be impossible, but a 'Big 3' of Lillard/George/Nurkic is what I'd be shooting for.

Sure, if Paul George is willing to resign... If not (probably most likely he won't) then it's not happening.

[zzaj]

If I'm Olshey, my mission this summer is to make every asset available not named Lillard or Nurkic to try and trade for Paul George.

Draft picks, CJ, Harkless, whatever...it may be impossible, but a 'Big 3' of Lillard/George/Nurkic is what I'd be shooting for.

Sure, if Paul George is willing to resign... If not (probably most likely he won't) then it's not happening.

Yeah, he'd need to be locked up, which I don't think can happen. Could the Pacers offer him a CJ sized contract and then trade him? Like I said...it may be impossible but if Olshey can figure a way to bring him in, IMO a Lillard/George/Nurkic trio has a higher ceiling than Lillard/CJ/Nurkic.

Certainly the discussion isn't going to get very far if it ends up being a one year rental.

[Wizenheimer]

If I'm Olshey, my mission this summer is to make every asset available not named Lillard or Nurkic to try and trade for Paul George.

Draft picks, CJ, Harkless, whatever...it may be impossible, but a 'Big 3' of Lillard/George/Nurkic is what I'd be shooting for.

I'd rather shoot for Jimmy Butler then Paul George, but either would be acceptable depending on some other considerations

the first consideration is contracts.

* George has two years remaining at 20 million/year with a player option for the 2nd year
* Butler has 3 years left at about 19.5 million/year with a player option for the 3rd year
* CJ has 4 years left at about 26.7 million/year

so, if you like control more then anything else, CJ's is the best deal, mitigated negatively by a higher cost and his 'shortcomings' on defense. If you want some financial savings, Butler's the best deal mitigated negatively by the possibility he'd be gone after two seasons

the other consideration is talent and fit. I'd say pretty clearly Butler comes out ahead in that area. His combination of offense and defense seems to fit the bill as best talent and fit

it might be argued that CJ is the most efficient offensive option, and certainly he is when it comes to shooting, but Butler is pretty close because of his extremely high FT rate; he gets to the line at an impressive clip and shoots a high percentage. But Butler is far superior to CJ as an offensive initiator, so I'd give him the nod in efficiency. And of course, his defense is stellar

Paul George is definitely a better 2-way player then CJ, but you have to weigh his worse offensive numbers against the value of his defense. And of course, he could end up being a 1 year rental

here's a comparison of their numbers this season:

http://bkref.com/tiny/DGbyN

so, I'd definitely trade CJ + 'more' for Butler. CJ + 'more' for George is a much closer call because of the 1-year rental worry. I think since George would be eligible for a contract extension this summer, I'd want him to agree to a 1 or 2 year extension before making the trade. IIRC, he could agree to opt out of his current deal in July 2018 and sign an extension

[DaVoiceMaster]

I'll even throw out one of my patented 6mo early predictions, I think we'll see Harkless moved this summer.

Why? He's doing a decent job and is one of the cheapest contracts on the team. He's probably one of the last player I would look to move.

[DusterBuster]

I'll even throw out one of my patented 6mo early predictions, I think we'll see Harkless moved this summer.

Why? He's doing a decent job and is one of the cheapest contracts on the team. He's probably one of the last player I would look to move.

Trade value. I think he'll be able to bring back something solid that Olshey will like.

[Norm2953]

I would seriously doubt either Chicago or Indiana would want any part of CJ's contract. A team
that is seriously under the cap likely would do a deal but the Blazer fans have been arguing for
most of this season with the Sixer fans over CJ to no avail. Brooklyn has nothing to offer but
cap relief and Devon Booker just scored 70 points in an NBA game which suggests Phoenix really
does not need CJ. Minnesota is under the cap but unless they offer up Wiggins, have nothing to
offer us for we don't need another pick in 2017.

I think CJ is going to be here for the forseeable future but perhaps with enough draft incentives,
eventually Crabbe can be moved prior to Portland having to pay the repeater luxury taxes.

[DaVoiceMaster]

That's a pretty good group for comparison Wiz. CJ has some pretty nice offensive numbers compared to those two, but then you look at rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers, etc.

Does the dynamic of the team change if you bring Butler or George in? Right now this is Dame's team and guys really seem to buy into the team concept, get together during the summer to work out, etc. Would that change with Butler or George? Is this still Dame's team? Do the guys still fall in line (so to speak) or does it become a free-for-all?

What type of filler is needed with CJ to get either player?