Zach Collins

[HoopsFanAZ]

Elite, athletic PF/C types [the ones drafted in the top few] can certainly have immediate impact. Freshman backups drafted at 10? Two years to see what Collins may become. Not determinative. Just a better view.

Aldridge came in more heralded and picked higher. The LaMarsha comments persisted. He worked. He developed. He became an all star who is not now, nor probably ever will be, an inside force. Excellent step back and fadeaway from midrange ... also with a rolling hook and countermoves. Great midrange game. Aldridge had decent D BUT not on hedging pick and rolls with an inability to close on the jump shooter. [Yes, he protected against getting driven on, but he was always on his heels in no position to actually challenge shots at or near the top of the key.]

Collins is a different animal. He likes contact. He's aggressive on D with good feet. Will he be as good as LMA? I have no idea. In two years I'll have a better answer. Maybe even after next season. Until then, he'll play and develop, and he deserves to because exactly no one besides Nurkic has shown that they're a starting quality PF or C for the Blazers. Aminu as a combo SF/PF? Sure, great to have. Davis as a PF/C? Sure, great to have. Plug them in for minutes, but they're not what I'd look for as starters on a contending team. Any other non-rookie? Not so much. Vonleh, either. [And I was hopeful given his early work this season alongside both Davis and Nurkic. He didn't lock down the position.] Re-up Davis in the summer? Absolutely. 3 years with team option on the 3rd.

As to Swanigan -- He was given pretty good early returns during the summer and at the beginning of the season. 3 basic things I see to his game: Work on being in NBA shape, use of skills against better players, and learning the NBA game. Old school? Yes, along with 3 point range. His being able to slim down further will help him utilize his motor. Sending him down for playing time and conditioning was a smart move.

I really like the idea of Nurkic, Collins and Swanigan. The reality? I'll wait for next season.

[Pattycakes]

Elite, athletic PF/C types [the ones drafted in the top few] can certainly have immediate impact. Freshman backups drafted at 10? Two years to see what Collins may become. Not determinative. Just a better view.

Aldridge came in more heralded and picked higher. The LaMarsha comments persisted. He worked. He developed. He became an all star who is not now, nor probably ever will be, an inside force. Excellent step back and fadeaway from midrange ... also with a rolling hook and countermoves. Great midrange game. Aldridge had decent D BUT not on hedging pick and rolls with an inability to close on the jump shooter. [Yes, he protected against getting driven on, but he was always on his heels in no position to actually challenge shots at or near the top of the key.]

Collins is a different animal. He likes contact. He's aggressive on D with good feet. Will he be as good as LMA? I have no idea. In two years I'll have a better answer. Maybe even after next season. Until then, he'll play and develop, and he deserves to because exactly no one besides Nurkic has shown that they're a starting quality PF or C for the Blazers. Aminu as a combo SF/PF? Sure, great to have. Davis as a PF/C? Sure, great to have. Plug them in for minutes, but they're not what I'd look for as starters on a contending team. Any other non-rookie? Not so much. Vonleh, either. [And I was hopeful given his early work this season alongside both Davis and Nurkic. He didn't lock down the position.] Re-up Davis in the summer? Absolutely. 3 years with team option on the 3rd.

As to Swanigan -- He was given pretty good early returns during the summer and at the beginning of the season. 3 basic things I see to his game: Work on being in NBA shape, use of skills against better players, and learning the NBA game. Old school? Yes, along with 3 point range. His being able to slim down further will help him utilize his motor. Sending him down for playing time and conditioning was a smart move.

I really like the idea of Nurkic, Collins and Swanigan. The reality? I'll wait for next season.

Nurkic needs to not respond to every missed shot or supposed foul like a 5 year old who didn't get their way. Collins needs to be a hard worker and keep his head down to get his strength right, he clearly has the natural skills and IQ. Swanigan needs to really transform himself into a speed-driven athlete, as currently he's just too slow for the modern game. I have confidence in all three of those guys if they can get over the humps I mentioned.

[HoopsFanAZ]

Pattycakes,

Succinctly done. I see the humps as manageable ... with the most difficult to dramatically change for the better being Nurkic.

[No-Man]

I would just pass on re-signing Nurkic unless he takes a real cheap deal

[d-train]

Blazers are going to resign Nurkic regardless of the price. But, they will bargain for the cheapest deal they can get.

[DusterBuster]

I would just pass on re-signing Nurkic unless he takes a real cheap deal

Blazers would be dumb to do that. He has been inconsistent as regards to his play last season when he got traded to Portland, but his numbers havent been awful by any means.

Granted, I would consider letting him walk if someone offers him 18+ per year, but all indications are that's highly unlikely given this summers market.
Logic would dictate that his number will come in around 12-15mil per and maybe even less than 4 years. It should end up being around Plumlees contract that he got from Denver. If all goes to plan with that, the Blazers should and would resign him, especially since thats a very tradable contract.

[No-Man]

Yeah... no, nobody is really trading for Nurkic if he gets Plums' deal

[Soulyss]

I would just pass on re-signing Nurkic unless he takes a real cheap deal

Blazers would be dumb to do that. He has been inconsistent as regards to his play last season when he got traded to Portland, but his numbers havent been awful by any means.

Granted, I would consider letting him walk if someone offers him 18+ per year, but all indications are that's highly unlikely given this summers market.
Logic would dictate that his number will come in around 12-15mil per and maybe even less than 4 years. It should end up being around Plumlees contract that he got from Denver. If all goes to plan with that, the Blazers should and would resign him, especially since thats a very tradable contract.

That is my read on this unless Olshey starts bidding against himself again. 4/60 seems highly plausable... Nurk is only 23? Pretty young for a big, especially one who didn't play Basketball until he was a teenager.

[No-Man]

I would not pay Nurkic more than 36m$ for 3 years, the last been a TO or non-guaranteed

[DusterBuster]

I would not pay Nurkic more than 36m$ for 3 years, the last been a TO or non-guaranteed

Thats silly. Anything 12-15 is perfectly reasonable for a solidly producing C whos 23.

[Wickzki]

I wouldn't be surprised if the final sum was close to 3/39.

It gives us until the end of Collins (and Swanigan's) rookie contracts to assess where our young bigs are at.

It's an eminently tradable contract throughout the lifetime of the deal.

It represents realistic market value for a highly talented, prospective game-changing big man who hasn't quite put it all together yet but has shown enough glimpses to suggest that he can (it's the will he rather than the can he).

Worst case scenario is that he fails to deliver on it but not anything close to the degree of Meyers and his ugly contract. He gets traded to a team who believes that at 24, 25 or 26 that he can transform another team's roster. Best case scenario is that he and either Collins or Swanigan become a power big man combination and we re-sign the duo again for the next 3-4 years and they dominate the last years of Lillard's prime/career.

The only way that this goes south for the Blazers is if someone Allen Crabbe's his contract. Unfortunately for Nurk teams have learned the lessons that Olshey and co were the first to make.

[DusterBuster]

I wouldn't be surprised if the final sum was close to 3/39.

It gives us until the end of Collins (and Swanigan's) rookie contracts to assess where our young bigs are at.

It's an eminently tradable contract throughout the lifetime of the deal.

It represents realistic market value for a highly talented, prospective game-changing big man who hasn't quite put it all together yet but has shown enough glimpses to suggest that he can (it's the will he rather than the can he).

Worst case scenario is that he fails to deliver on it but not anything close to the degree of Meyers and his ugly contract. He gets traded to a team who believes that at 24, 25 or 26 that he can transform another team's roster. Best case scenario is that he and either Collins or Swanigan become a power big man combination and we re-sign the duo again for the next 3-4 years and they dominate the last years of Lillard's prime/career.

The only way that this goes south for the Blazers is if someone Allen Crabbe's his contract. Unfortunately for Nurk teams have learned the lessons that Olshey and co were the first to make.

Even if someone Crabbes his contract (my new favorite way to describe bad contracts), its not the same situation. Crabbe got overpaid on pure potential. Nurk, as inconsistent as hes been, has proven worlds more than Crabbe ever did. 17 is the max i would like to see the team pay for him, but i wouldnt fault them if they paid that. Nurk at Turner/Crabbe money is still a movable contract without adding incentive.

[HoopsFanAZ]

It's not going to be whether the Blazers pay tax starting after next season. It's about how much and for how long.

1. I want Napier, Connaughton, and Davis on the team next season ... reasonable salaries (raises to all 3). Keep the years to no more than 3 for each with team options for the summer of 2020.

2. I'm reconciled to Turner and Leonard being a really expensive bench until their contracts expire. Either Harkless plays with the effort of late and isn't a bad contract, or he goes back to off the bench invisible Harkless. If the worst happens, the Blazers eliminate $41.4 million in the summer of 2020.

3. So ... not to make this all about Nurkic, and I'll agree I'm likely in error on this one, but it's about years more than $$$.
Nurkic getting 3 years at a flat $20 million per season with a team option after two years means (A) the summer of 2020 is a transition point of going under the cap (exit $61.4 million for 4 players) and/or (B) seeing IF Collins is ready as a starter at PF or at C (or not at either one).

4. If the summer of 2020 is a rebuild around Lillard, McCollum, Collins, and Swanigan ... and decisions with Davis, Aminu, Connaughton, and Napier ... I'm good with that. Nurkic either earns big but not max money (and is a good decision to have) when McCollum and Lillard's contracts are up, or he's gone after two. I'd love it if he signed for less and is more tradeable (just in case), but If Nurkic isn't a long-term center for the Blazers, limit the impact. He's pretty good, now, and for a couple years.