Zach Collins

[Roy The Natural]

Honestly, I see that as more of a reflection on our offensive system, than on Collins and Nurk themselves. Nurk does miss some easys at the rim, but neither player really gets a lot of clean looks inside.

Perhpas, but they are so far from the norm and so far from the top that I think the answer is more direct--they are poor shooters. I doubt if they are facing more heavily contested shots than the others in this grouping. On the positive side, Collins' mechanics are not nearly as flawed on his finishing than Nurkic. With some bulk, he will be making more inside shots. Maybe that is true for both.

Yea... I think Collins has fantastic touch, and footwork around the rim. His main issue right now seems to be finishing with contact, which could very well be directly correlated to lack of strength, something that will no doubt improve as he matures.

[zzaj]

A couple of things...

1) Collins is obviously not ready for the NBA 3pt line. He was great at the college 3, but he only took 10 of them. At least to me, he doesn't look confident when he's shooting. I think more experience against NBA defenses will help. At times it looks like he's rushing things.

2) Nurkic has bad hands. They aren't Kwame level bad, but they aren't much better. He dunks a basketball what, maybe every 4th game? He's trying to finesse things too much. He actually reminds me of Festus Ezeli around the basket...

3) The Blazers need a big man coach in THE WORST way...and they've needed one for a long time. Chris Kaman would do wonders for every big on the team, which sounds ridiculous but IMO is true.

[DeBlazerRiddem]

2) Nurkic has bad hands. They aren't Kwame level bad, but they aren't much better. He dunks a basketball what, maybe every 4th game? He's trying to finesse things too much. He actually reminds me of Festus Ezeli around the basket...

I'm curious about this, because it isn't necessarily my read on Nurkic - well about the bad hands, I totally agree about the trying to finesse things too much.

For one, he has pretty quick hands on defense. On offense, his handle is sloppy, but I don't notice him having issues catching really. But he often has really good touch on the basketball, and that is where I don't agree with the bad hands. I have never seen Ezeli make a running floater like we see Nurkic go to sometimes.

Anyways, maybe I misunderstand what is meant by bad hands or maybe I misjudge Nurkic. I do think he goes to floaters and bank shots too often and doesn't finish through contact the way a Bosnian Beast should, I just wasn't under the impression that's what we mean by "bad hands".

[zzaj]

2) Nurkic has bad hands. They aren't Kwame level bad, but they aren't much better. He dunks a basketball what, maybe every 4th game? He's trying to finesse things too much. He actually reminds me of Festus Ezeli around the basket...

I'm curious about this, because it isn't necessarily my read on Nurkic - well about the bad hands, I totally agree about the trying to finesse things too much.

For one, he has pretty quick hands on defense. On offense, his handle is sloppy, but I don't notice him having issues catching really. But he often has really good touch on the basketball, and that is where I don't agree with the bad hands. I have never seen Ezeli make a running floater like we see Nurkic go to sometimes.

Anyways, maybe I misunderstand what is meant by bad hands or maybe I misjudge Nurkic. I do think he goes to floaters and bank shots too often and doesn't finish through contact the way a Bosnian Beast should, I just wasn't under the impression that's what we mean by "bad hands".

I think of "bad hands" as constantly looking like you never have complete control of the ball--catching, passing, shooting, dribbling, rebounding. Nurkic is ok at catching and passing, but his hands shooting (especially around the basket), dribbling (high and loose dribbles) and rebounding look sub par to me. An example of "good hands" on the team in the rebounding department is Ed Davis. He has that 'sticky hands' look when he gets rebounds and goes after loose balls--definitive. This is mine. It helps that his hands are quick for his size. One issue is that Nurkic tends to go after rebounds with one hand even when a rebound is in his area.

Another example of quick hands that we've seen the past few games is Napier. He's always quick and definitive with the ball, and that really helps him on the defensive end.

[Skhraeurpl]

did you guys see collins tonight? He did it all. That 2nd shift was the best basketball of his career.

The drive spin move pump fake had me drooling.
no look pass to shabazz that shabazz had to dump off
pass over defenders to harkless
the multiple defensive stops that weren't blocks but just extremely impressive d
the switches

you all still refusing to eat crow and wish we had mitchell instead? yeah me neither.

[GreenRiddler]

Mitchell would've never worked here. We have Dame and CJ who are better.

Collins is looking like he will develop into a very good and useful player who can do a lot of different things.

[magee]

He looked really nice against OKC. Once the team sees him on those cuts down the lane and to the hoop from the top of the key, his feel for timing those cuts is gonna be huge. He's starting to earn his minutes. If Portland decides to trade Ed Davis, it will only be to give Collins more minutes. Instead, I see them holding onto this team and letting Collins get those minutes next year, and see if Davis opts to sign elsewhere.

[Masterfully]

Mitchell would've never worked here. We have Dame and CJ who are better.

Collins is looking like he will develop into a very good and useful player who can do a lot of different things.

The only way I like Mitchell is under the assumption that he takes over for CJ and then we trade CJ for a top notch SF or PF. Mitchell as another undersized backup just doesn’t make sense.

My love for Collins is well documented. I expected him to be starting by Christmas. That hasn’t happened but I think it should. I’d love to see a big lineup of Aminu, Collins and Nurkic. They are all mobile enough to keep up with smaller opponents. On the bright side, it appears that Collins has moved ahead of Vonleh and Leonard in the rotation.

[Soulyss]

Mitchell would've never worked here. We have Dame and CJ who are better.

Collins is looking like he will develop into a very good and useful player who can do a lot of different things.

Mitchell would have made trading CJ for a high end wing practical. I really was hoping Portland was going to get him at 15 before the trade.

As it stands now losing CJ would really hit our guard rotation unless you guys want more Turner.

[Soulyss]

He looked really nice against OKC. Once the team sees him on those cuts down the lane and to the hoop from the top of the key, his feel for timing those cuts is gonna be huge. He's starting to earn his minutes. If Portland decides to trade Ed Davis, it will only be to give Collins more minutes. Instead, I see them holding onto this team and letting Collins get those minutes next year, and see if Davis opts to sign elsewhere.

I wouldnt be shocked to see this as the move portland uses to get under the cap.

[Wizenheimer]

Mitchell would've never worked here. We have Dame and CJ who are better.

The only way I like Mitchell is under the assumption that he takes over for CJ and then we trade CJ for a top notch SF or PF. Mitchell as another undersized backup just doesn’t make sense.

Mitchell would have worked just fine in the rotation, taking Connaughton's minutes and some of Napier's. And he would have given Portland options if they would entertain the notion of trading CJ. Having 3 more years of Mitchell at 4M a season compared to 3 more years of CJ at 28M a season would have gone a long way toward solving Portland's tax & cap issues. CJ is a better player than Mitchell at this point, but he sure isn't 7 times better

the problem is that Mitchell is just like Dame and CJ...an undersized, high-usage, shoot-first guard; and like CJ, he's not really effective as a backup PG. So then, Portland would still find themselves in a position of needing a backup PG in the rotation too.

Portland is looking for help at wings. I think they are kind of desperate for help at wings. Those 6'2-6'3 guards are poor help at the wing positions. Mitchell for CJ leaves Portland in the same fix they are already in. The only issue he'd solve is he's much cheaper. That's a big issue so it's worth considering on alternate universe timelines...I guess. But Portland doesn't have Mr. Peabody and the WABAC Machine

*******************************************************

as for Collins...he's beginning to look like he belongs on an NBA court. He really needs to get stronger; his rebound rate is poor for somebody his length and he's way too easily re-directed by contact. But he does have a defensive presence and he's starting to shoot better. I don't agree that he's ready to be a starter though. The only change I'd make to the starters is bringing Harkless back in at SF and moving Turner back to the bench role

the main thing for me is he's keeping Meyers on the bench

[PDXKnight]

ZCo is starting to look real good. He isn't scoring 20 points a game but he doesn't force things, plays respectable d and knows his limitations. I wouldn't be shocked if he replaces a mini as a starter by next season

[Downtown]

But Portland doesn't have Mr. Peabody and the WABAC Machine

Lol. How many in here would even remember that.

[Wizenheimer]

He looked really nice against OKC. Once the team sees him on those cuts down the lane and to the hoop from the top of the key, his feel for timing those cuts is gonna be huge. He's starting to earn his minutes. If Portland decides to trade Ed Davis, it will only be to give Collins more minutes. Instead, I see them holding onto this team and letting Collins get those minutes next year, and see if Davis opts to sign elsewhere.

I wouldnt be shocked to see this as the move portland uses to get under the cap.

(I know you meant under the tax)

the problem is that Collins is a poor rebounder and ineffective in the paint compared to Davis:

total rebound rate: Collins 12%....Davis 20.5%
off rebound rate: Collins 6%....Davis 15.1%
TS%: Collins .432....Davis .571
FT rate: Collins .154....Davis .377
winshares/48: Collins .016....Davis .149

Collins simply can't do the things Davis does. Right now, he mostly has a perimeter game and Portland has a surplus of that.

If the Blazers trade Davis for a TPE and a pick, they become a worse team. Little doubt about that. Davis is integral to what Portland is doing well. Now, while trading wouldn't Davis bother me (because I don't think Portland can afford to re-sign Davis), I do think Blazer players, coaches, and likely management are all focused on the 'win now' notion. And they may even be primed to go on their annual 20 game stretch of hot basketball. But I don't believe it will be sustainable, just like the previous seasons.

4 of Portland's primary rotation players are free agents this summer. But Portland will only be 8-9M below that tax line, and that's not counting any of those 4 players (+Vonleh). Hard to see how Portland can re-sign Davis, so having a pick instead, even if it's only a 2nd, might be a better outcome then keeping Davis and chasing the mirage of success this season

[Fitz303]

He looked really nice against OKC. Once the team sees him on those cuts down the lane and to the hoop from the top of the key, his feel for timing those cuts is gonna be huge. He's starting to earn his minutes. If Portland decides to trade Ed Davis, it will only be to give Collins more minutes. Instead, I see them holding onto this team and letting Collins get those minutes next year, and see if Davis opts to sign elsewhere.

I wouldnt be shocked to see this as the move portland uses to get under the cap.

(I know you meant under the tax)

the problem is that Collins is a poor rebounder and ineffective in the paint compared to Davis:

total rebound rate: Collins 12%....Davis 20.5%
off rebound rate: Collins 6%....Davis 15.1%
TS%: Collins .432....Davis .571
FT rate: Collins .154....Davis .377
winshares/48: Collins .016....Davis .149

Collins simply can't do the things Davis does. Right now, he mostly has a perimeter game and Portland has a surplus of that.

If the Blazers trade Davis for a TPE and a pick, they become a worse team. Little doubt about that. Davis is integral to what Portland is doing well. Now, while trading wouldn't Davis bother me (because I don't think Portland can afford to re-sign Davis), I do think Blazer players, coaches, and likely management are all focused on the 'win now' notion. And they may even be primed to go on their annual 20 game stretch of hot basketball. But I don't believe it will be sustainable, just like the previous seasons.

4 of Portland's primary rotation players are free agents this summer. But Portland will only be 8-9M below that tax line, and that's not counting any of those 4 players (+Vonleh). Hard to see how Portland can re-sign Davis, so having a pick instead, even if it's only a 2nd, might be a better outcome then keeping Davis and chasing the mirage of success this season

Agreed that he doesn't replace what Davis does at Center, however, he does just about replace what Aminu does at PF

total rebound rate: Collins 12%....Aminu 12.4%
off rebound rate: Collins 6%....Aminu 4.4%
TS%: Collins .432....Aminu .542
FT rate: Collins .154....Aminu .120
winshares/48: Collins .016....Aminu .102

Aminu still has some major advantages, especially in FG%, however, he seems to be trending back to earth in that regard, whereas Collins is (slowly) trending up.

Last 10 games FG and 3pt %
Aminu - .363 and .278
Collins - .442 and .263

If the right deal came around, I'd be fine with using Aminu to move a contract, and allowing Collins to move into the starting PF position. That allows Vonleh some back up minutes, and cashes in on one of the few good contract assets that we have.

[Soulyss]

He looked really nice against OKC. Once the team sees him on those cuts down the lane and to the hoop from the top of the key, his feel for timing those cuts is gonna be huge. He's starting to earn his minutes. If Portland decides to trade Ed Davis, it will only be to give Collins more minutes. Instead, I see them holding onto this team and letting Collins get those minutes next year, and see if Davis opts to sign elsewhere.

I wouldnt be shocked to see this as the move portland uses to get under the cap.

(I know you meant under the tax)

the problem is that Collins is a poor rebounder and ineffective in the paint compared to Davis:

total rebound rate: Collins 12%....Davis 20.5%
off rebound rate: Collins 6%....Davis 15.1%
TS%: Collins .432....Davis .571
FT rate: Collins .154....Davis .377
winshares/48: Collins .016....Davis .149

Collins simply can't do the things Davis does. Right now, he mostly has a perimeter game and Portland has a surplus of that.

If the Blazers trade Davis for a TPE and a pick, they become a worse team. Little doubt about that. Davis is integral to what Portland is doing well. Now, while trading wouldn't Davis bother me (because I don't think Portland can afford to re-sign Davis), I do think Blazer players, coaches, and likely management are all focused on the 'win now' notion. And they may even be primed to go on their annual 20 game stretch of hot basketball. But I don't believe it will be sustainable, just like the previous seasons.

4 of Portland's primary rotation players are free agents this summer. But Portland will only be 8-9M below that tax line, and that's not counting any of those 4 players (+Vonleh). Hard to see how Portland can re-sign Davis, so having a pick instead, even if it's only a 2nd, might be a better outcome then keeping Davis and chasing the mirage of success this season

Yes I meant the tax line...

I agree with the assessment that trading Davis isn't good for the product on the floor, but does Davis make us the difference between a 8 seed and a 4 seed? probably not, so if that time is better spent developing Collins, it's hard to argue since I agree that the Blazers unlikely to resign Davis.

[Skhraeurpl]

I wouldnt be shocked to see this as the move portland uses to get under the cap.

(I know you meant under the tax)

the problem is that Collins is a poor rebounder and ineffective in the paint compared to Davis:

total rebound rate: Collins 12%....Davis 20.5%
off rebound rate: Collins 6%....Davis 15.1%
TS%: Collins .432....Davis .571
FT rate: Collins .154....Davis .377
winshares/48: Collins .016....Davis .149

Collins simply can't do the things Davis does. Right now, he mostly has a perimeter game and Portland has a surplus of that.

If the Blazers trade Davis for a TPE and a pick, they become a worse team. Little doubt about that. Davis is integral to what Portland is doing well. Now, while trading wouldn't Davis bother me (because I don't think Portland can afford to re-sign Davis), I do think Blazer players, coaches, and likely management are all focused on the 'win now' notion. And they may even be primed to go on their annual 20 game stretch of hot basketball. But I don't believe it will be sustainable, just like the previous seasons.

4 of Portland's primary rotation players are free agents this summer. But Portland will only be 8-9M below that tax line, and that's not counting any of those 4 players (+Vonleh). Hard to see how Portland can re-sign Davis, so having a pick instead, even if it's only a 2nd, might be a better outcome then keeping Davis and chasing the mirage of success this season

Agreed that he doesn't replace what Davis does at Center, however, he does just about replace what Aminu does at PF

total rebound rate: Collins 12%....Aminu 12.4%
off rebound rate: Collins 6%....Aminu 4.4%
TS%: Collins .432....Aminu .542
FT rate: Collins .154....Aminu .120
winshares/48: Collins .016....Aminu .102

Aminu still has some major advantages, especially in FG%, however, he seems to be trending back to earth in that regard, whereas Collins is (slowly) trending up.

Last 10 games FG and 3pt %
Aminu - .363 and .278
Collins - .442 and .263

If the right deal came around, I'd be fine with using Aminu to move a contract, and allowing Collins to move into the starting PF position. That allows Vonleh some back up minutes, and cashes in on one of the few good contract assets that we have.

That's actually interesting because I feel like with Collins passing we might be able to move Turner to the bench and have mo back in the starting lineups.

[GreenRiddler]

Turner has to play ing the starting 5. He nukes our 2nd and 4th qrts with his free wheeling style of play in the 2nd unit. Collins can't replace Davis but I think Vonleh can step into Davis's role if we trade Ed. Vonleh isn't playing that good so we maybe able to sign him too.

[Skhraeurpl]

Turner has to play ing the starting 5. He nukes our 2nd and 4th qrts with his free wheeling style of play in the 2nd unit. Collins can't replace Davis but I think Vonleh can step into Davis's role if we trade Ed. Vonleh isn't playing that good so we maybe able to sign him too.

Vonleh has actually been playing the best of his career all around numbers wise

[zzaj]

IMO, Swanigan was at least partially drafted to replace one of Vonleh or Davis, potentially both...meaning the Blazers may decide to keep neither. Obviously, it's too early to tell what kind of impact Swanigan can have at the NBA level, but I'm inclined to think he can grow into the shoes of either one plus add some outside shooting upside that Davis has never had and Vonleh has never fulfilled.

It's interesting comparing their defensive numbers. I would have thought that Swanigan would have a worse DRtg than the others but that's not the case. Of course there are all sorts of sample size issues. Vonleh and Davis have 710 games and 10 years more experience than Swanigan. Swanigan will likely never be able to guard stretch PF's effectively, but neither will Ed Davis and the jury is still out on Vonleh. Vonleh has length, but he lacks footspeed and lateral quickness. He tends to have too long of a 'windup' in general.

I really like what Davis brings to the Blazers and would be sad to see his rebounding go, but I think if Swanigan can raise his offensive efficiency and lower his usg a little he would come close to matching what Davis brings. I think he'd be close to Vonleh right now if given the minutes. Certainly he's going to be a cheaper option than either for the next 4 years.

Nice to see Swanigan averaging 16.8/12.4/2.4 on 49% shooting in the Gleague. While it doesn't mean much because of competition, at least he's not floundering at that level of play.